this article targets the bin..

2022-04-20

this article targets the bin.... precisely thats why they are into other industries like automotive to reduce certain sector exposures.... its risk management...

Nvidia: High Crypto-Mining Exposure Makes It A Sell In The Near Term

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

ElsieDewey
2022-04-20
ElsieDewey
For a company, risk control is very important. Especially in the current situation where there are many uncertainties.
AthenaVeblen
2022-04-20
AthenaVeblen
When a company develops to a more mature stage, it will expand its business scope to seek better development opportunities or better management.
MamieBenson
2022-04-20
MamieBenson
I quite agree with you. Business expansion is conducive to its development and risk control.

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Proof of Work allows individuals to mine using GPUs and requires massive computing power. The new system is Proof of Stake, which follows a mechanism of processing transactions and creating new blocks inside a blockchain without the need for complex computations. The shift will eliminate the need to buy GPUs for crypto-mining. We believe Nvidia&#39;s management has understated its exposure to GPU sales in the crypto-mining market.</p><p>We believe Nvidia is a sell with the firm conviction that the company will not be able to keep up with its high valuation. The recent 2022 Investor Day Presentation outlines a Total Addressable Market (TAM) narrative that forecasts increasing revenues. Our numbers show this TAM narrative is unlikely, at best. We estimate Ethereum&#39;s move to Proof of Stake will likely impact Nvidia a minimum of $500 million and up to $1billion in revenue. So, therefore, we believe Nvidia stock is at the risk of a significant sell-off before the market prices in the new market reality.</p><h2><b>What Nvidia&#39;s (not) telling you</b></h2><p>The America-based semi giant has maintained leadership in manufacturing and designing computer graphic processors that operate through Graphics Processing Units (&#34;GPU&#34;). Like most semi-products, GPUs form an essential part of our lives, whether through computers, playstation5 graphics, or mining Ethereum in a blockchain. Indeed, Nvidia has a range of end markets it operates through: Gaming (45%), Data Centers (41%), Professional Visualization (8%), Automotive (2%), and Original Equipment Manufacturer (3%).</p><p>Innovation and tech in all these sectors have consolidated a name for Nvidia, even more so now with the Omniverse, Hooper Data Center GPU, and Grace ARM-based CPU. However, the company&#39;s expected upcoming stock pullback is not a result technological shortcomings, but rather its lack of transparency with investors about their exposure to crypto-mining demand.</p><p>The growth outlined in the GTC 2022 is based on outdated end-market demand and does well to tip-toe around Nvidia&#39;s affair with crypto-mining. Nvidia&#39;s earning presentations from the past 12 quarters fail to mention its exposure to GPU sales related to crypto-mining. We believe investors underestimate Nvidia&#39;s Crypto mining exposure at their peril.</p><h2><b>The link between Nvidia and Crypto mining is well established</b></h2><p>The link between Nvidia and crypto mining is no secret. The only way to mine Ethereum had been through GPUs, and the best GPUs are from Nvidia. The two have been married in their rise and drop since 2017. So much so, that the Ethereum 2018 hash rate dip correlates with a drop in NVDA&#39;s stock for the fiscal year of 2019. We saw this again last year (2021), when the decline in cryptocurrency-related sales impacted Nvidia stock earlier this year, bringing about a 27% decline in January 2022.</p><p>Nvidia has again slipped into the same position, and we know the secret of what&#39;s ahead. The following charts illustrate how Nvidia&#39;s stock price correlates to Ethereum&#39;s price.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1249842febd4128cf317401ff809813\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"751\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>MacroAxis</p><h2><b>Stock performance</b></h2><p>Nvidia&#39;s stock is another pandemic favorite. We witnessed the stock grow 223% since the pandemic&#39;s beginning around March 2020. Specifically, NVDA stock increased 122% in 2020, 125% in 2021, and YTD, the stock is down about 26%. We do not think the stock decline is done yet, since the expected revenue declines due to the waning of Crypto Mining are not priced in. Therefore, we expect another down leg from the current levels on the stock. The following chart illustrates Nvidia&#39;s performance over the last two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6030f950931b3c004e6b34356f73a29a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Ycharts</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef85ebf29bd92fe80d8451817870f1db\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><h2><b>Valuation</b></h2><p>Nvidia is richly valued. The stock is currently trading at around $218 per share. Nvidia is relatively expensive, trading at 15.3x EV/C2022 sales versus the peer group average of 5.1x. On a P/E basis, it is trading at 39.4x C2022 EPS of $5.53, versus the peer group average of 17.4x.</p><p>Even adjusting for growth, we believe Nvidia is expensive. On a growth-adjusted basis, Nvidia is trading at 0.7x. We believe revenue and EPS estimates are at risk due to the impending slow-down in the crypto mining market. We believe NVDA&#39;s valuation is too high considering the imminent decline in crypto-mining demand and the negative shift in demand signals from the computer, consumer, and communications OEMs. The following chart illustrates Nvidia&#39;s peer group valuation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a72e7ba84017776aaf565cbd076c700f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Refinitiv</p><h2><b>Word on Wall Street</b></h2><p>Market consensus pushes for a strong buy on Nvidia stock, making up 81% of the sell-side ratings, with the remaining being neutral/hold rated on the stock. The overwhelming buy consensus is a natural result of investor confidence after Nvidia&#39;s GTC. The average price target on Nvidia is $338, while the median is around $350.</p><p>We do not believe the sell-side is pricing in the demand slow-down from the crypto mining business. We think there is more downside on the stock than the market is pricing it in. The following chart illustrates the sell-side ratings, price targets, and upside potential.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62362c582546dfe78faebc1eb04a5ad6\" tg-width=\"522\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Refinitiv</p><h2><b>What to do with the stock</b></h2><p>We recommend investors sell NVDA at its current levels. Crypto-mining GPU demand and the pandemic did drive up revenues previously, but both are expected to be no longer factors in 2H22. We expect a steep decline, which seems unavoidable, especially since Nvidia is still unwilling to admit its exposure to crypto-mining demand.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: High Crypto-Mining Exposure Makes It A Sell In The Near Term</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: High Crypto-Mining Exposure Makes It A Sell In The Near Term\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-20 17:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502165-nvidia-high-crypto-mining-exposure-makes-it-a-sell-in-the-near-term><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia Corporation's (NASDAQ:NVDA) dominance in high-end GPU markets for the past half-decade is uncontested, but its golden age appears to pause with Ethereum's anticipated switch from Proof of Work ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502165-nvidia-high-crypto-mining-exposure-makes-it-a-sell-in-the-near-term\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4543":"AI","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502165-nvidia-high-crypto-mining-exposure-makes-it-a-sell-in-the-near-term","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2228582913","content_text":"Nvidia Corporation's (NASDAQ:NVDA) dominance in high-end GPU markets for the past half-decade is uncontested, but its golden age appears to pause with Ethereum's anticipated switch from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake. Proof of Work allows individuals to mine using GPUs and requires massive computing power. The new system is Proof of Stake, which follows a mechanism of processing transactions and creating new blocks inside a blockchain without the need for complex computations. The shift will eliminate the need to buy GPUs for crypto-mining. We believe Nvidia's management has understated its exposure to GPU sales in the crypto-mining market.We believe Nvidia is a sell with the firm conviction that the company will not be able to keep up with its high valuation. The recent 2022 Investor Day Presentation outlines a Total Addressable Market (TAM) narrative that forecasts increasing revenues. Our numbers show this TAM narrative is unlikely, at best. We estimate Ethereum's move to Proof of Stake will likely impact Nvidia a minimum of $500 million and up to $1billion in revenue. So, therefore, we believe Nvidia stock is at the risk of a significant sell-off before the market prices in the new market reality.What Nvidia's (not) telling youThe America-based semi giant has maintained leadership in manufacturing and designing computer graphic processors that operate through Graphics Processing Units (\"GPU\"). Like most semi-products, GPUs form an essential part of our lives, whether through computers, playstation5 graphics, or mining Ethereum in a blockchain. Indeed, Nvidia has a range of end markets it operates through: Gaming (45%), Data Centers (41%), Professional Visualization (8%), Automotive (2%), and Original Equipment Manufacturer (3%).Innovation and tech in all these sectors have consolidated a name for Nvidia, even more so now with the Omniverse, Hooper Data Center GPU, and Grace ARM-based CPU. However, the company's expected upcoming stock pullback is not a result technological shortcomings, but rather its lack of transparency with investors about their exposure to crypto-mining demand.The growth outlined in the GTC 2022 is based on outdated end-market demand and does well to tip-toe around Nvidia's affair with crypto-mining. Nvidia's earning presentations from the past 12 quarters fail to mention its exposure to GPU sales related to crypto-mining. We believe investors underestimate Nvidia's Crypto mining exposure at their peril.The link between Nvidia and Crypto mining is well establishedThe link between Nvidia and crypto mining is no secret. The only way to mine Ethereum had been through GPUs, and the best GPUs are from Nvidia. The two have been married in their rise and drop since 2017. So much so, that the Ethereum 2018 hash rate dip correlates with a drop in NVDA's stock for the fiscal year of 2019. We saw this again last year (2021), when the decline in cryptocurrency-related sales impacted Nvidia stock earlier this year, bringing about a 27% decline in January 2022.Nvidia has again slipped into the same position, and we know the secret of what's ahead. The following charts illustrate how Nvidia's stock price correlates to Ethereum's price.MacroAxisStock performanceNvidia's stock is another pandemic favorite. We witnessed the stock grow 223% since the pandemic's beginning around March 2020. Specifically, NVDA stock increased 122% in 2020, 125% in 2021, and YTD, the stock is down about 26%. We do not think the stock decline is done yet, since the expected revenue declines due to the waning of Crypto Mining are not priced in. Therefore, we expect another down leg from the current levels on the stock. The following chart illustrates Nvidia's performance over the last two years.YChartsYchartsYchartsValuationNvidia is richly valued. The stock is currently trading at around $218 per share. Nvidia is relatively expensive, trading at 15.3x EV/C2022 sales versus the peer group average of 5.1x. On a P/E basis, it is trading at 39.4x C2022 EPS of $5.53, versus the peer group average of 17.4x.Even adjusting for growth, we believe Nvidia is expensive. On a growth-adjusted basis, Nvidia is trading at 0.7x. We believe revenue and EPS estimates are at risk due to the impending slow-down in the crypto mining market. We believe NVDA's valuation is too high considering the imminent decline in crypto-mining demand and the negative shift in demand signals from the computer, consumer, and communications OEMs. The following chart illustrates Nvidia's peer group valuation.RefinitivWord on Wall StreetMarket consensus pushes for a strong buy on Nvidia stock, making up 81% of the sell-side ratings, with the remaining being neutral/hold rated on the stock. The overwhelming buy consensus is a natural result of investor confidence after Nvidia's GTC. The average price target on Nvidia is $338, while the median is around $350.We do not believe the sell-side is pricing in the demand slow-down from the crypto mining business. We think there is more downside on the stock than the market is pricing it in. The following chart illustrates the sell-side ratings, price targets, and upside potential.RefinitivWhat to do with the stockWe recommend investors sell NVDA at its current levels. Crypto-mining GPU demand and the pandemic did drive up revenues previously, but both are expected to be no longer factors in 2H22. We expect a steep decline, which seems unavoidable, especially since Nvidia is still unwilling to admit its exposure to crypto-mining demand.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":222,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":139,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":101321183,"commentId":"101321183","gmtCreate":1650469074774,"gmtModify":1663247337544,"authorId":9000000000000603,"author":{"id":9000000000000603,"idStr":"9000000000000603","authorId":9000000000000603,"name":"ElsieDewey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a2c539bd7eff494d3755975b44673ef","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9086503622,"objectIdStr":"9086503622","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"For a company, risk control is very important. Especially in the current situation where there are many uncertainties.","text":"For a company, risk control is very important. Especially in the current situation where there are many uncertainties.","html":"For a company, risk control is very important. Especially in the current situation where there are many uncertainties.","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":101321049,"commentId":"101321049","gmtCreate":1650468632935,"gmtModify":1663247335426,"authorId":9000000000000701,"author":{"id":9000000000000701,"idStr":"9000000000000701","authorId":9000000000000701,"name":"AthenaVeblen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb48733f77d50133639e148b840f87ae","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9086503622,"objectIdStr":"9086503622","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"When a company develops to a more mature stage, it will expand its business scope to seek better development opportunities or better management.","text":"When a company develops to a more mature stage, it will expand its business scope to seek better development opportunities or better management.","html":"When a company develops to a more mature stage, it will expand its business scope to seek better development opportunities or better management.","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":101321304,"commentId":"101321304","gmtCreate":1650469448940,"gmtModify":1663247336647,"authorId":9000000000000494,"author":{"id":9000000000000494,"idStr":"9000000000000494","authorId":9000000000000494,"name":"MamieBenson","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e0fafb6a0868fdff5a6626301b88f7c","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9086503622,"objectIdStr":"9086503622","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"I quite agree with you. Business expansion is conducive to its development and risk control.","text":"I quite agree with you. Business expansion is conducive to its development and risk control.","html":"I quite agree with you. Business expansion is conducive to its development and risk control.","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/9086503622"}