Looking at the last 10-years ranking of top-3 billionaires in the world (see below) Bill Gates has held the title of the richest man in the world four times in a row between 2014 to 2017. Jeff Bezos took over as the richest man in the world for the next four years, 2018 to 2021 before losing the crown to Elon Musk. Musk did not feature in the top-3 at all until he burst into the scene in 2021 at 2nd place, and knocked Bezos off the perch a year later in 2022.
source: Susan Walsh/AP; Joshua Roberts/Reuters; Axel Schmidt/Getty Images
Top-3 Wealth Ranking Bezos, Gates and Musk source: Forbes
So will Musk remain at the top of the world of billionaires in 2023 or will Bezos wrestle the title back? Let's examine further...
Wealth Trending
From the wealth trend graph (below), Bill Gates wealth showed a steady albeit slowing trajectory. Jeff Bezos wealth has risen steadily but has seen some up and down swings since 2019, coinciding with his divorce settlements and announcement of stepping down from role as Amazon’s CEO. Elon Musk’s wealth exploded more than 6 times to 151 billions in 2021 compared to the year before, snagging him second place in the list of world’s richest man. A year on, it increased 1.5 fold to 219 billion and he was crowned the richest man in the world.
Wealth Trends for Bezos, Gates and Musk source: Forbes
With the above wealth trajectories, barring any unexpected mammoth gain or loss of wealth, it seems most probable that Musk would remain as the richest man in the world. Musk might even add to its gain from Bezos, as he is still 110% “full-on” growing his business with more Tesla’s Giga factories around the world.
Bezos on the other hand is shifting away from accumulating wealth to spending his wealth for passion projects, from space travel (Blue Origin) and tackling climate change (Bezos Earth Fund) to supporting education for the homeless (Day 1 Fund) and news journalism (The Washington Post).
Machiavellian Musk?
Even when Musk seemed to be losing money as in the case of him selling 10% Tesla stock, causing the share price to drop in 2021, he gained considerably from avoiding to pay higher tax on his holdings. His latest offer to buy Twitter and take it private might seem on the surface would shave 43 billions off his wealth, he might have some tricks up his sleeves to profit from this venture as well. In any case, supposed both Bezos and Musk continued on their present trajectory, and Musk paid 43 billions from his personal wealth (speculation at this stage, he might not do so) for Twitter, he would still be ahead of Bezos by at least 5 billions (219 – 43 = 176 billion vs 171 billions of Bezos).
Musk it is!
So come round Mar-April of 2023, when the 37th annual Forbes list of the world’s billionaires is published, the name I am looking out for to sit pretty on top of the world is a certain Mr. Elon Musk!
If you are interested in the top semiconductor stock to buy in 2022, I have written another post on Best of the Best: Semis 2022 Edition
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