Palantir: Buy Now Before It Surges Post Q4 Earnings Announcement

Summary

• With the guidance of over 30% annual growth in the next five years, Palantir may easily report annual revenues of at least $6B by 2026.
• PLTR also reported multiple favorable commercial and government contracts/partnerships in the recent months, ensuring a strong growth outlook for the subsequent quarters.
• As a result, we expect PLTR to report favorable FQ4'21 earnings and FY2022 guidance on 17 February 2022, when its share prices are expected to surge above current levels.
• In addition, with its strong deep data analytics platform, PLTR will only be more relevant moving forward as the world emerges from the mission critical supply chain issues.

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Investment Thesis

Palantir Technologies($Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ )has just begun to unlock its massive potential, given its strong penetration into multiple markets. Its recent stock performance has been mostly negative, which is partly attributed to the massive stock-based compensation in FY2020. Nonetheless, we believe that the current dip presents a substantial buying opportunity for aggressive investors, who believe in PLTR's guidance of over 30% annualized growth in the next five years.

We will be anticipating PLTR'sFQ4'21 earning discussionon 17 February 2022, as we are confident in the company's future unlimited applications and subsequent revenue growth. In addition, based on recent partnerships and contracts, PLTR is expected to guide favorable FY2022 revenues. As a result, speculative investors may take this chance to load up on the underpriced stock that will prove highly relevant and profitable in the next five years.

PLTR Offers Cutting Edge Machine Learning Capabilities To Ensure Successful Outcomes

PLTR announced multiple commercial and government contracts/ partnerships across numerous fields in recent months. By integrating simulation with complex, interrelated data, PLTR's software has been shown to optimize results and efficiency while driving greater profitability/ performance in the long term. These include:

• Scuderia Ferrari, for the deep data analysis done in seconds during Formula 1 racing season.
• Satellogic(SATL), a company specializing in sub-meter resolution satellite imagery collection. The partnership will enable both companies to leverage each other's technologies for commercial uses, with the aim of accelerating both companies' application and Artificial Intelligence/ Machine Learning capacity.
• Hyundai Heavy Industries' core businesses, including shipbuilding & offshore engineering, energy, and industrial machinery. Both companies also aim to commercialize a separate platform that is specific to HHI's core businesses, using PLTR's Foundry data platform.
• Dewpoint Therapeutics, a clinical-stage biotech company based on biomolecular condensates. The partnership allows Dewpoint to utilize Foundry's platform as a knowledge library while accelerating its pipeline research for breakthrough lifesaving therapies.
• Merck(OTCPK:MKGAF), a science and technology company based in Germany. Athinia platform, which is powered by Palantir Foundry, will be used to provide deep data analysis for the semiconductor industry, which has been critically affected by the current supply chain disruption.
• Multiple US government contracts, which includeSpace Systems Command,US Army Vantage program, andUS Army Intelligence, to support national security objectives.
• Multiple healthcare contracts, which includeNational Institutes of Healthfor National COVID Cohort Collaborative data, NCATS for cancer research with the National Cancer Institute, andMSP Recoveryfor a united healthcare data ecosystem.

It is evident from the list above that PLTR's platform is highly customizable and applicable in different settings, which has helped the company grow its diverse consumer base over the years. In addition, the robust demand for PLTR's data analytics platform in these recent months will directly translate to its future revenue and customer growth in the upcoming quarters. As a result, we expect PLTR to report a strong growth outlook at its FQ4'21 earnings call on 17 February 2022 and subsequently, experience a favorable surge in its stock price.

The current global supply chain issues have highlighted how vulnerable the global economy is during and post-COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, we expect more to realize the need to turbocharge their decision-making processes by including PLTR's machine learning capabilities in their entire supply chain. For example, PLTR has shown a great example of how its platform has helped theNational Health Service in the UKdeliver, store and roll out the COVID-19 vaccines efficiently through GPs, while also planning for more PPE orders to facilitate vaccination efforts.

With solid integration of PLTR's platform, there are many more applications than we can imagine moving forward, such as the reduction of carbon emissions, transitioning the traditional automotive industry to EV profitability, and even the breakthrough treatment forleading causes of death:heart diseases and cancer. By combining its advanced deep data analysis capabilities with its market-leading position, Palantir has the right tools on hand to grow its platform and capture multiple excellent opportunities moving ahead.

The Massive PLTR Share Dilution Is Not Expected To Occur Again

PLTR Share Dilution

PLTR relied heavily on share dilution as part of its stock-based compensation. It had amounted to $1.27B worth of compensation in late 2020, which had diluted its existing shareholders by easily 3.4 fold. Insiders seemed to have taken advantage of its "meme stock status" by cashing in their options at that moment.

However, it is also important to note that based on thelatest 10Q in FQ3'21, "the unrecognized expense related to options outstanding was $940.0 million, which is expected to be recognized over a weighted-average service period of eight years." As a result, we do not expect any significant dilution in the next eight years, given that we are only looking at an average of $117.5M of stock-based compensation annually. In addition, the company has been free cash flow positive in the past three quarters, so PLTR does not need to rely on share dilution for its future operations.

PLTR Reports Impressive CAGR Of 33.95% Since 2018

PLTR Revenue and Free Cash Flow

In the past three years, PLTR grew its revenues at an excellent CAGR of 33.95%. Assuming that the company achieves itsFQ4'21 revenue guidance of $418M, PLTR will report $1.52B of revenues for FY2021, representing an impressive increase of 39.1% YoY, compared to the previous year's growth of 47.1%. The company also expected to report an adjusted operating margin of 22% and adjusted free cash flow over $400M for FY2021.

In FQ3'21, PLTR reported 34 new customers to a total of 203 customers, representing an increase of 20% QoQ. In addition, the company reported that its commercial segment accounted for 44.3% of its revenues at $174M, while its government contracts contributed the majority at $218M in the same quarter. It remains to be seen how the ratio will be in FQ4'21, though we expect government contracts to still contribute a strong portion of PLTR's future revenue, given its long-term basis.

PLTR Operating Income and Margin

PLTR has been steadily improving its operating margins over the years, from -100.7% in FY2018 to -39.3% in the last twelve months (LTM). The company also reported a further improvement in its operating margins and operating incomes from -75.6% and -$144.1M in FQ3'19 to -23.4% and -$91.9M in FQ3'21, respectively.

For FY2022, consensus estimates that PLTR will report $1.99B of revenues, representing 30% YoY growth. In the next five years, PLTR aims to achieve annual growth of over 30%, which will bring its revenues to over $6B. Consensus estimates that PLTR may even accomplish the upper estimate of $9B revenues by 2026, assuming the current growth trajectory. As a result, given the long-term basis of its contracts and partnership, PLTR's future growth is more or less solidified.

PLTR Projected Revenue

So, Is PLTR Stock A Buy?

PLTR EV/Fwd Revenue

PLTR is currently trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 13.01x, lower than its historical mean of 25.8x. Given the recent market movement, PLTR stock is also trading at $13.13, near its 52 week low of $11.75. Given the undervaluation, aggressive investors may add more PLTR stock to their portfolios. However, PLTR has not and will not be reporting profitability anytime soon. Investors who add now must be aware that consensus estimates PLTR to only achieve net income profitability from FY2024 onwards.

Nonetheless, PLTR has diversified its revenues by recently branching into multiple commercial partnerships. Assuming successful ventures, we expect PLTR to report sustainable growth in the long term as more realize the benefits of its deep data technology. On the other hand, government contracts will provide the solid, stable revenues PLTR needs for its future growth and expansion.

Therefore, werate PLTR stock as a Buy for speculative investors.