LimLS
2022-07-24

Many are afraid Fed might reverse too slowly and push the market into a deep dive. My thoughts is it is unlikely. Fed is more affected by political and other outside influence than Fed claimed to be otherwise. A good example will be Fed always used PCI as a guage as inflation since its a broader measurement. But why did it switch to CPI suddenly? Why did Fed suddenly changed the June hike to 75 bps? Biden chat with Powell, and the focus on CPI are definitely a factor for the changes. Also many are calling Fed bluff on its forecast of terminal rate and hike schedule. They are saying the terminal rate will not be as high as Fed claimed and Fed might reverse as early as early 2023. Some even said by end of 2022. Biden mid term election during Nov will put pressure on Fed and won't allow them to go ultra hawkish. We will see if the above is true during next few months. Good luck to all.

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