Grab: What do I expect?

Jo Tan
2022-07-28

In the coming month, on Aug 25, $Grab Holdings(GRAB)$will do it earnings call. For me, it's a make or break, because I've been holding on to this stock since Mar this year.

It's also a milestone I will look at to see whether I should hold on to this stock or sell it. I have been diligently accumulating it in small amounts.

Performance 

Its stock price has been slowly increasing, back from a low of $2.26 (this year) to now of $2.90. The stock has had its fair share of protractors, who rightfully have pointed out that the company has yet to make profit and is still leaking cash.

For me, I have literally seen them make changes to their business model in order to deal with the decrease in driver supply. They decreased the waiting time from 5 to 3 min recently which I thought increased efficiency. In addition, they have come up with new cash flow services, such as GrabMaps.

More importantly, incentives have gone down. I am not sure if ridership has decreased as well. However, in terms of performance, I expect much lesser losses and more importantly, to break even by this year, despite their forecast of Q1 next year. With the easing of measures, I do not see why not and it's an opportune time to show investors what the company can do.

Share Price 

If the company is able to do this, I believe the share price will rise to $3.30-3.50 by Nov. That's only for break even. If it starts making a profit, well, I am looking at $5.00.

Conclusion 

Now, this is all speculation, but it would feel good to have identified a company at its initial growth stage. This is after its fall from grace from highs of $17. This fall has no doubt left lasting effects on the company as well as SPACs as a whole, which took away a lot of focus from its potential. I could be wrong but... What do you think?



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Comments

  • RedpillBluep
    2022-07-29
    RedpillBluep
    The key issue is market size, unlike Gojek, which is capitalizing Indonesia large market to expand various types of services and springboard into the rest of the southeast Asia. Grab's growth is a ?
  • LesterTan
    2022-07-29
    LesterTan
    Unless u trade based on price actions, don’t ever buy a losing biz n hope it’ll be profitable in the mid/long term. Cheap can be cheaper. Buy solid companies eg amzn, google or even baba
    • Jo Tan
      I want to be able to make my own judgement on this and I believe Grab can be successful
  • Toby_Chua
    2022-07-30
    Toby_Chua
    Waiting for fair value enter price of $1.54
    • Jo Tan
      Well, you never know. It is currently trying to break $3 after spending months at $2.3-2.50.
  • Niknaks
    2022-07-30
    Niknaks
    Please remember car sharing companies like grab didi or uber .. till now still not making money.. so be cautious
    • Jo Tan
      that's my point. it's not only a car sharing company
  • Jlkc
    2022-07-29
    Jlkc
    How do you come to 3.3 to 3.5? And why its nov? Everything with data behind or gut feeling?
    • Jo Tan
      speculation (as mentioned in the last para).
  • VKHO44
    2022-07-29
    VKHO44
    Hope it will go up... I bought it at peak time.
    • Jo Tan
      very sorry to hear that. I did that with DBS.
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