highhand
2022-08-10

$Novavax(NVAX)$Bearish deserves Jim Cramer's House of Pain! ๐Ÿ’‰

The target is Sell sell sell sell sell... Is that enough sells? Please someone tell NVAX they are two years late. [Cry] 

It all started so beautifully.

The U.S. government invested $1.6 billion in Novavax in 2020 โ€” the most for any vaccine maker at the time โ€” in hopes that it would offer an alternative for a safe and effective Covid vaccine.

Novavax's protein technology differentiated itself from $Pfizer(PFE)$ and $Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ messenger-RNA-based Covid shots, so what happened? 

Answers, I want answers!

- Generally, each vaccine batch should reach at least 90% purity. NVAX struggled to attain anywhere close to that.

Low purity levels increases probability of contaminants in the final product, rendering the vaccine less effective or introducing to unknown substances to patients.

- NVAX had consistently run into production and supply chain problems. Testing methods for vaccine purity have often fallen short of regulators' standards and this delayed the company to produce a shot that meets the benchmark.

- NVAX previously used but complicated approach of creating the key ingredient with bug cells is familiar to scientists, but difficult to scale. They should have taken some notes from $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$in scaling for manufacturing. (Joke! I know they are different industries!)

NVAX was a novice in the vaccine world and it showed. It had never successfully launched a vaccine, and struggled financially prior to the pandemic. After a string of drug development failures, it sold its manufacturing facilities in 2019 and in May that year, the stock price was 36 cents per share [Surprised] 

Where are we now?

Investors hammered NVAX after Q2 report. Sales tumbled nearly 38% to $185.9 million and missed forecasts for $1.02 billion. Novavax also lost $6.53 per share. Analysts expected a per-share gain of $5.54. Losses also widened from $4.75 in the year-earlier period.

If you really want to invest in a Covid company which at this point, I'm unsure why you would do that, MRNA and PFE are so much better choices. 

- Low PE ratios, so low.

- Revenue not dependent on only Covid vaccine for PFE, and MRNA is developing other products 

- Both have increased vaccines prices to boost revenue and still dominate the Covid market.

Even as NVAX ships iits newly manufactured vaccines, is there enough demand to sustain the company and bring it to profitability for the long term? Tricky road ahead... 

@TigerStars

NVAX: What's your target price after earnings miss?
ใ€KEY POINTSใ€‘ 1. Novavax stock plunged 31% after the company provided its Q2 update. 2. The vaccine maker badly missed revenue and earnings estimates and slashed its full-year revenue guidance. ใ€Topicใ€‘What's your thoughts on NVAX earnings? Target price after earnings miss?
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Comments

  • vaztan
    2022-08-13
    vaztan
    I wonder whether No abax management sold share when it was topping $300???
  • ChrisColeman
    2022-08-10
    ChrisColeman
    I am not bullish on this one. It is doing worse and worse
  • WendyDelia
    2022-08-10
    WendyDelia
    It is doing so badly. Every one is rising but it is dropping
  • KeN3
    2022-08-11
    KeN3
    Vested and its just going to be left aside
  • BenjiFuji
    2022-08-12
    BenjiFuji
    Learnt something, thanks
  • Kavan233
    2022-08-11
    Kavan233
    Up
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