Hello, everybody.
Today I looked at SPX/ES, SPY & QQQ Volatility and offered my insights: $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$
1.Crude Oil Volatility Forecast 19-24 Sep 2022
The current impliedvolatilityis +-4.8$ from the current opening of the weekly candle, 84.81$
With this in mind, we have a 74% chance that the market is going to stay within the range:
TOP: 90.55
BOT: 79.06
At the same time, we can see that the average weekly candle, is around 3.6 - 4.1%
From thetechnical analysisPOV, we can see that our asset is belowEMA50 and aboveEMA100/200.
From thevolumePOV, we can see that currentlyCMFlevel has been declining, indicating a more powerful seller position.
I believe we are to go towards 80, where is going to be theEMA100 resistence place, but if we manage to break this part, probably we can go lower than that, around 79${{a71175a0b0854d8385ca52c55ba38b6c}}
2.GOLD Volatility Forecast 19-24 Sep 2022
The current impliedvolatilityis +-36.6$ from the current opening of the weekly candle, 1674$
With this in mind, we have a 80% chance that the market is going to stay within the range:
TOP: 1711
BOT: 1637
At the same time, we can see that the average weekly candle, is around 1.5 - 1.75%
From thetechnical analysisPOV, we can see that our asset is aboveEMA50/100/200.
From thevolumePOV, we can see that currentlyCMFlevel is on the negative side, indicading a stronger seller positions.
I believe we are to go towards 1650 initially, where probably we are going to meet some resistence, but if we manage to break this part, probably we can go twaords 1640 - 1630.
3.Nasdaq$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Volatility Forecast 19-24 Sep 2022
The current impliedvolatilityis +-489$ from the current opening of the weekly candle, 11920$
With this in mind, we have a 80% chance that the market is going to stay within the range:
TOP: 12400
BOT: 11430
At the same time, we can see that the average weekly candle, is around 2.4 - 2.68%
From thetechnical analysisPOV, we can see that our asset is aboveEMA50/100 and aboveEMA200.
From thevolumePOV, we can see that currentlyCMFlevel is on the positive side, indicading a stronger buyer positions.
Since we open below 12k, I believe there is a much higher chance this week that the market will continue the downfall movement, towards 11500$, where is actually the resistence point from theEMA200.
After that it can go both ways, depending if its going to close above/below it.
4.VIX$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ Volatility Forecast 19-24 Sep 2022
The current impliedvolatilityis +- 3.26$ from the current opening of the weekly candle, 27.7$
With this in mind, we have a 65% chance that the market is going to stay within the range:
TOP: 30.91
BOT: 24.46
At the same time, we can see that the average weekly candle, is around 11.5%
From thetechnical analysisPOV, we can see that our asset is aboveEMA50/100/200.
So currently I believe we are going to go towards 30$ level
5.SP 500$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Volatility Forecast 19-24 Sep 2022
The current impliedvolatilityis +- 148$ from the current opening of the weekly candle, 3890$
With this in mind, we have a 81% chance that the market is going to stay within the range:
TOP: 4031
BOT: 3747
At the same time, we can see that the average weekly candle, is around 1.66 - 1.93%
From thetechnical analysisPOV, we can see that our asset is belowEMA50/100 and aboveEMA200.
At the same from thevolumePOV, we can see that currently ourCMFis around 0 , indicading a neutral position.
So currently I believe it can go both ways, however I am going to pull the trigger and call it abearishweek .
6.EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Forecast 19-24 Sep 2022
The current impliedvolatilityis +- 129$ from the current opening of the weekly candle, 3499$
With this in mind, we have a 80% chance that the market is going to stay within the range:
TOP: 3631
BOT: 3366
At the same time, we can see that the average weekly candle, is around 2.1 - 2.46%
From thetechnical analysisPOV, we can see that our asset is belowEMA50/100/200.
At the same from thevolumePOV, we can see that currently ourCMFis negative, indicating abearishside.
Lastly, we can see that we are close to the most important resistence zone of this asset for this year, which is around 3400 so if we are not going to close below this point, there is a very high chance that the market will rebound and go towards 3500+
Otherwise if we are going to break it, we can expect a downfall movement towards 3300-.
7.DAX Volatility Forecast 19-24 Sep 2022
The current impliedvolatilityis +- 467$ from the current opening of the weekly candle, 12685$
With this in mind, we have a 80% chance that the market is going to stay within the range:
TOP: 13143
BOT: 12226
At the same time, we can see that the average weekly candle, is around 2.1 - 2.46%
From thetechnical analysisPOV, we can see that our asset is belowEMA50/100/200.
At the same from thevolumePOV, we can see that currently ourCMFis positive, indicating avolumedivergence much stronger on thebullishside.
Lastly, we can see that we are close to the most important resistence zone of this asset for this year, which is around 12500/12400, so if we are not going to close below this point, there is a very high chance that the market will rebound and go towards13k.
Otherwise if we are going to break it, we can expect a downfall movement towards 12250 - 12000.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DAX/PtlsRn4R-DAX-Volatility-Forecast-19-24-Sep-2022/
Comments