Hello, everybody.
Today I looked at these main indexes weekly volatility forecast and offered my insights:
1.OIL Weekly Volatility Forecast
Currently ourvolatility for OIL is at 6.6%, increasing from 4.7% last week, located on 100th percentile, placing us in a THE HIGHEST volatility environment
Based on the previous calculations, there is currently a 15.5% chance that the asset is going to break the channel(the weekly candle it will close above/below)
TOP 83
BOT 75.5
At the same time, based on the previous calculations:
- There is a 30% chance that the previous high from last week of 86.6 is going to be touched
- There is a 70% chance that the previous low from last week 78.02 is going to be touched(at the moment of the writing was already touched)
We can deduct that we have a much higher probability to have a continuation ofbearishcandle thanbullish.
On average the weekly candle when the asset was located around this percentile are 4.5% for bull candles and 5.1% for the bear candles from the opening price.
From the fundamental point of view, news that can affect this asset price this week:
- Core Durable release,CBConsumer confidence and Powell Speech for Tuesday 27 Sep
- Powell Speech for Wednesday 28 Sep
- US GDP coming on Thursday 29 Sep
Overall I believe for this week there is higher chance due to the overall global activity to have another bearish weekly candle.
2.GOLD Weekly Volatility Forecast
Currently ourvolatility for GOLD is at 2.54%, increasing from 1.64% last week, located on 90th percentile, placing us in a very high volatility environment
Based on the previous calculations, there is currently a 28.6% chance that the asset is going to break the channel(the weekly candle it will close above/below)
TOP 1670
BOT 1616
At the same time, based on the previous calculations:
- There is a 30% chance that the previous high from last week of 1688 is going to be touched
- There is a 70% chance that the previous low from last week 1641 is going to be touched(at the moment of the writing was already touched)
We can deduct that we have a much higher probability to have a continuation ofbearishcandle thanbullish.
On average the weekly candle when the asset was located around this percentile are 1.4% for bull candles and 1.8% for the bear candles from the opening price.
From the fundamental point of view, news that can affect this asset price this week:
- Core Durable release,CBConsumer confidence and Powell Speech for Tuesday 27 Sep
- Powell Speech for Wednesday 28 Sep
- US GDP coming on Thursday 29 Sep
Overall I believe for this week there is higher chance due to the overall global activity to have another bearish weekly candle.
3.Russel 2000 Weekly Volatility Forecast
Currently ourvolatility for Russel is at 4.3%, increasing from 3.76% last week, located on 70th percentile, placing us in a highvolatilityenvironment
Based on the previous calculations, there is currently a 16.7% chance that the asset is going to break the channel(the weekly candle it will close above/below)
TOP 1746
BOT 1620
At the same time, based on the previous calculations:
- There is a 28% chance that the previous high from last week of 1830 is going to be touched
- There is a 70% chance that the previous low from last week 1660 is going to be touched
We can deduct that we have a much higher probability to have a continuation ofbearishcandle thanbullish.
On average the weekly candle when the asset was located around this percentile are 2.9% for bull candles and 2.95% for the bear candles from the opening price.
From the fundamental point of view, news that can affect this asset price this week:
- Core Durable release,CBConsumer confidence and Powell Speech for Tuesday 27 Sep
- Powell Speech for Wednesday 28 Sep
- US GDP and Jobless Claims coming on Thursday 29 Sep
- Core PCE on Friday 29 Sep
Overall I believe for this week there is higher chance due to the overall global activity to have another bearish weekly candle.
4.Nasdaq Weekly Volatility Forecast$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$
Currently ourvolatility for Nasdaq is at 4.55%, increasing from 4.03% last week, located on 80th percentile, placing us in a high volatility environment
Based on the previous calculations, there is currently a 15.3% chance that the asset is going to break the channel(the weekly candle it will close above/below)
TOP 11820
BOT 10905
At the same time, based on the previous calculations:
- There is a 35% chance that the previous high from last week of 12140 is going to be touched
- There is a 65%chance that the previous low from last week 11215 is going to be touched
We can deduct that we have a much higher probability to have a continuation ofbearishcandle thanbullish.
On average the weekly candle when the asset was located around this percentile are 3.13% for bull candles and 366% for the bear candles from the opening price.
From the fundamental point of view, news that can affect this asset price this week:
- Core Durable release,CBConsumer confidence and Powell Speech for Tuesday 27 Sep
- Powell Speech for Wednesday 28 Sep
- US GDP and Jobless Claims coming on Thursday 29 Sep
- Core PCE on Friday 29 Sep
Overall I believe for this week there is higher chance due to the overall global activity to have another bearish weekly candle.
5.SP500 Weekly Volatility Forecast$S&P 500(.SPX)$
Currently ourvolatility coming from volatility token for SPX is at 4.15%, increasing from 3.41% last week, located on 80th percentile, placing us in a high volatility environment
Based on the previous calculations, there is currently a 10% chance that the asset is going to break the channel(the weekly candle it will close above/below)
TOP 3831
BOT 3578
At the same time, based on the previous calculations:
- There is a 35% chance that the previous high from last week of 3933is going to be touched
- There is a 65%chance that the previous low from last week of 3660 is going to be touched
We can deduct that we have a much higher probability to have a continuation ofbearishcandle thanbullish.
On average the weekly candle when the asset was located around this percentile are 2.51% for bull candles and 2.76% for the bear candles from the opening price.
From the fundamental point of view, news that can affect this asset price this week:
- Core Durable release,CBConsumer confidence and Powell Speech for Tuesday 27 Sep
- Powell Speech for Wednesday 28 Sep
- US GDP and Jobless Claims coming on Thursday 29 Sep
- Core PCE on Friday 29 Sep
Overall I believe for this week there is higher chance due to the overall global activity to have another bearish weekly candle.
6.DAX Weekly Volatility Forecast$Global X Dax Germany ETF(DAX)$
Currently ourvolatility coming from volatility token for DAX is at 3.83%, increasing from 2.55% last week, located on 60th percentile, placing us in a higher than average probability volatility environment
Based on the previous calculations, there is currently a 20% chance that the asset is going to break the channel for
TOP 12600
BOT 11970
At the same time, based on the previous calculations:
- There is a 35% chance that the previous high from last week of 12946 is going to be touched/surpassed.
- There is a 65%chance that the previous low from last week of 12200 is going to be touched/surpassed
We can deduct that we have a much higher probability to have a continuation ofbearishcandle than bullish.
On average the weekly candle when the asset was located around this percentile are 1.8% for bull candles and 2.56% for the bear candles from the opening price.
From the fundamental point of view, news that can affect this asset price this week:
- Monday 26 Septeptember, ECB President Lagarde Speaks
- Tuesday 27 Septeptember, ECB President Lagarde Speaks
- Wednesday 28 Septeptember, ECB President Lagarde Speaks
-CB Consumer confidence and Powell Speech for Tuesday 27 Sep
- Powell Speech for Wednesday 28 Sep
- US GDP coming on thursday 29 Sep
- German Unemployment change Friday 30 Sep
-CPI EUR Friday 30 September
Overall I believe for this week there is higher chance due to the overall global activity to have another bearish weekly candle.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DAX/3v9q1ltO-DAX-Weekly-Volatility-Forecast-26-30-September/
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