LimLS
2022-10-08

The article is right about the job report had cemented the 0.75% hike for Nov. Fed only cares about the job market and inflation. With the job market so strong, Fed now only need to focus on bringing the inflation down. So 0.75% hike is almost a sure thing now. Additionally, many Fed officials had make their speech this week. All spoke of the same thing. Hike is still needed and high rates are here to stay until end of 2023. Market downturn will not forced Fed to pivot. In fact, Powell already warned us a few times that pain is going to be expected. What do all this means to the market? My opinion is, for the next 6 months, it should still be a downtrend. There may be some relief rally in between but nothing can reverse the general downwards trend. The main news that will reverse the downward trend is for Fed to pivot. But until unemployment rate hits 5-6%, there is no reason for Fed to stop the hikes. Pivot is still far away... Take care and be cautious.

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Comments

  • jonbeloved
    2022-10-08
    jonbeloved
    Good analysis. When people are employed, Fed see it that people got $ to spend hence inflation will not go down. Hope that an equilibrium can be achieved soon but recession may be unavoidable.
  • IAS
    2022-10-08
    IAS
    Yes totally agree
  • YBK
    2022-10-09
    YBK
    [smile]
  • suresh11
    2022-10-08
    suresh11
    ok
  • May Gett
    2022-10-08
    May Gett
    K
  • pandajojo
    2022-10-08
    pandajojo
    like
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