Last night, the three major U.S. stock indexes fluctuated lower. As of the close, the Dow fell 1.15%, the Nasdaq fell 0.68%, and the S&P fell 1.02%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose 1.999% to close at 3.826%, a difference of about -44 basis points compared with the yield on the two-year Treasury bond. The VIX, the fear index, rose 6.9%.

Brent crude closed up 1.21%. Spot gold closed down 0.22% at $1,712.74 an ounce. The dollar index remained high, closing at 112.28.

The number of layoffs at challenger companies in the United States in September was 29,989, compared with the previous value of 20,485. U.S. employer layoffs rose 46% month-on-month in September and 68% year-over-year. September marked the fifth time so far in 2022 that the number of layoffs was higher than a year earlier. "The labor market is starting to show some cracks. Hiring is slowing and layoffs are starting to happen," said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president at Challenger. In September, employers announced plans to hire 338,014 workers, the lowest September total since 2011, when 76,551 were announced.

A cooling housing market and interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve are causing mortgage staff layoffs at banks and lenders. Fears of a recession have led to heightened uncertainty, and companies across industries are beginning to reassess their workforce needs. Typically, both the retail and transportation/warehousing industries are ramping up hiring for the holiday season, announcing their plans in September. The lower figure suggests that companies that typically hire seasonal workers are waiting to see if consumers will spend more during the holiday season.

U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 219,000 in the week to Oct. 1, snapping a two-month streak of declines and beating expectations for 203,000. Although still at historically low levels, it is the latest sign that labor demand may be starting to slow. A sustained rise in jobless claims would signal sluggish spending across sectors, and uncertainty about the economic outlook is prompting some companies to lay off workers. Still, the number of applications remains low, continuing to show a strong la! market. Nonfarm payrolls are due on Friday, and the Septen jobs report is expected to show an increase of 260,000 jobs.

The EU officially approved the eighth round of sanctions against Russia, which will take effect on October 7. It is reported that the new sanctions plan will include a ban on the transportation of Russian oil exceeding the oil price cap to third countries by sea and a ban on related services; and expand the sanctions to Kherson and Zaporozhye. In its autumn forecast, the German government downgraded its 2022 growth forecast to 1.4% and projected a recession in 2023 with GDP growth of -0.4%.

Fed Kashkari said that there is a risk of excessive interest rate hikes, but is not worried about stagflation, and the Fed has more work to do on inflation. Fed Governor Cook said restoring price stability may require sustained rate hikes followed by a period of restrictive rate policy. Fed Evans believes that the reduction of the balance sheet will be completed within three years, and the next meeting of the Fed will discuss whether to raise interest rates by 50 basis points or 75 basis points. Federal Reserve Governor Waller said Friday's jobs report may not change the view that the Fed should be 100% focused on reducing inflation, with rate hikes expected early next year.

According to ME's "Federal Reserve Watch": The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 50 basis points to the range of 3.50%-3.75% in November is 31.3%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points is 68.7%; the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 100 basis points by December The probability of a cumulative rate hike of 125 basis points is 60.6%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 150 basis points is 15%.

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