So few days back I talked about looking at the USDand $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ as well as the $Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2209(10Ymain)$ to know whether we have a temporary bottom. The reason I did my video attached below is because of this 3 tickers that showed a temporary peak.
When USD hit 114 early in the week, my guys said it could touch 120 by EOW and was worried my long theory might be wrong. After analysing USD charts, I said it will pullback by this week towards 111.90 and if that support doesn't hold, it will go towards 109. It is currently at 111.70.
VIX also on my video I stated look at the downtrend line, on wednesday when it spiked above it, it did not close above it, in fact it went back down and closed with a bearish engulfing. Which is my 1st sign of a rally incoming.
I told my guys to go short on wednesday to prepare for thursday drop test. Initially I thought we were going to get a pump mid-day but 5hours before market opened, I told them it wasnt going to come due to VIX 2H chart and told them more potential downside ahead.
We closed shorts a tad-bit too early before that RTH drop but locking in profits is always a good habit.
Yesterday drop on $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2212(ESmain)$ broke a new weekly low, but guess what? VIX was having an inside day. That was my next red flag on VIX and told my guys to lean bullish as daily MACD for $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is still shifting up on my indicators.
10Y looks like it has a temporary peak right now and like I told my guys since the start of the week, the 10Y yields is going to start heading down in the weeks to come and that is why I am leaning bullish on equities short term.
My bias is still bullish until I see a capitulation which till date, I have not.
Watch the video to understand the data I have to know why I am leaning bullish despite 92% of the retail market is now bearish.
As always, trade safe & invest wise!
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Video Link:
https://youtu.be/p92kspKHGbw
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