Unbearable Shortness of Being

Fri Sep 30

Ok, a poor quip on a good 80’s flic (Unbearable Lightness of Being). People are having a hard time believing that these markets could simply keep grinding lower. Galactic capitulation… maybe. Particularly if there is a financial snap or war. Somehow I suspect it will more likely be death by a thousand drips. Why the negativity…

Corporate credit spreads are a train wreck waiting to happen. Note where the above high yield corporates are now relative to 2020 (Covid) and 2009 (Lehman). Getting nasty folks.

The above FRA-OIS spread measures the 3 month LIBOR minus the effective Fed Funds rate. It is a measure of the overnight funding stress. The higher this rises, the more demand for US dollars worldwide. This is likely a chart the Fed is watching closely. The new highs could be function of the transition from QE to QT. If the pressure continues it could be a precursor to a financial system failure.

Latest trades are long inverse QQQ ETFs and shorting slightly out-of-the-money weekly calls. It’s a good play for a southbound grinding market. Also buying Chevron (CVX) and First Solar (FSLR) (shorting calls on these as well).

Good trading!

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

feelond
2022-10-03
feelond
QQQ looks like it is about to drop. Be careful guys.
YvetteGunther
2022-10-01
YvetteGunther
The potential companies like AAPL and TSLA are worth buying now.
familoveyou
2022-10-01
familoveyou
It is close to the June low.I will buy the dip from now.
YorkTurner
2022-10-01
YorkTurner
I can't see the sign of rebounce.The market is all the way down.
extractoi
2022-10-03
extractoi
I am staying far away from QQQ
WalterD
2022-10-03
WalterD
Remember bad news is good again. Lol

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People are having a hard time believing that these markets could simply keep grinding lower. Galactic capitulation… maybe. Particularly if there is a financial snap or war. Somehow I suspect it will more likely be death by a thousand drips. Why the negativity…</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4c0476032aa93354b5dce8b0b9062e2\"><span></span></p> <p>Corporate credit spreads are a train wreck waiting to happen. Note where the above high yield corporates are now relative to 2020 (Covid) and 2009 (Lehman). Getting nasty&nbsp;folks.</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af10a290a19baa20996f9d454d3738e2\"><span></span></p> <p>The above FRA-OIS spread measures the 3 month LIBOR minus the effective Fed Funds rate. It is a measure of the overnight funding stress. The higher this rises, the more demand for US dollars worldwide. This is likely a chart the Fed is watching closely. The new highs could be function of the transition from QE to QT. If the pressure continues it could be a precursor to a financial system&nbsp;failure.</p> <p>Latest trades are long inverse QQQ ETFs and shorting slightly out-of-the-money weekly calls. It’s a good play for a southbound grinding market. Also buying Chevron (CVX) and First Solar (FSLR) (shorting calls on these as&nbsp;well).</p> <p>Good trading!</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Fri Sep&nbsp;30</p> <p>Ok, a poor quip on a good 80’s flic (Unbearable Lightness of Being). People are having a hard time believing that these markets could simply keep grinding lower. Galactic capitulation… maybe. Particularly if there is a financial snap or war. Somehow I suspect it will more likely be death by a thousand drips. Why the negativity…</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4c0476032aa93354b5dce8b0b9062e2\"><span></span></p> <p>Corporate credit spreads are a train wreck waiting to happen. Note where the above high yield corporates are now relative to 2020 (Covid) and 2009 (Lehman). Getting nasty&nbsp;folks.</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af10a290a19baa20996f9d454d3738e2\"><span></span></p> <p>The above FRA-OIS spread measures the 3 month LIBOR minus the effective Fed Funds rate. It is a measure of the overnight funding stress. The higher this rises, the more demand for US dollars worldwide. This is likely a chart the Fed is watching closely. The new highs could be function of the transition from QE to QT. If the pressure continues it could be a precursor to a financial system&nbsp;failure.</p> <p>Latest trades are long inverse QQQ ETFs and shorting slightly out-of-the-money weekly calls. It’s a good play for a southbound grinding market. Also buying Chevron (CVX) and First Solar (FSLR) (shorting calls on these as&nbsp;well).</p> <p>Good trading!</p></body></html>","text":"Fri Sep 30 Ok, a poor quip on a good 80’s flic (Unbearable Lightness of Being). People are having a hard time believing that these markets could simply keep grinding lower. Galactic capitulation… maybe. Particularly if there is a financial snap or war. Somehow I suspect it will more likely be death by a thousand drips. Why the negativity… Corporate credit spreads are a train wreck waiting to happen. Note where the above high yield corporates are now relative to 2020 (Covid) and 2009 (Lehman). Getting nasty folks. The above FRA-OIS spread measures the 3 month LIBOR minus the effective Fed Funds rate. It is a measure of the overnight funding stress. The higher this rises, the more demand for US dollars worldwide. This is likely a chart the Fed is watching closely. The new highs could be function of the transition from QE to QT. If the pressure continues it could be a precursor to a financial system failure. Latest trades are long inverse QQQ ETFs and shorting slightly out-of-the-money weekly calls. It’s a good play for a southbound grinding market. Also buying Chevron (CVX) and First Solar (FSLR) (shorting calls on these as well). 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