Fed speak of the week: A unified, resolute stance in the inflation fight. Following the Federal Reserve’s super-sized interest rate hike and another hot read on inflation, a slew of Fed speak this week indicated that central bank officials are unified in the task of cooling inflation — even in the face of global market turmoil.
Across statements, the message was clear: The Fed plans to continue raising rates higher and then hold them there is “clear and convincing” evidence that inflation is cooling. And while recession risk has risen, it’s not the base case expectation.
At a research conference in New York on Friday, Fed Governor Lael Brainard underscored that it will take time for the full effect of higher interest rates to work through different sectors and to bring inflation down, adding that the Fed is committed to avoiding pulling back prematurely. Brainard noted that the real yield curve — yields on Treasuries adjusted for inflation — is now in solidly positive territory except for the shortest maturities and with more rate hikes she expects short-term yields to move into positive territory as well.
In the face of a spike in yields on Treasuries in response to Fed policy changes, and given that monetary policy operates with a lag, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told reporters on Thursday night that she’s comfortable with the Fed’s projected path for interest rate increases for ending the year around 4%-4.3% on the Fed Funds Rate and 4.5%-5% for 2023. Daly indicated that her expectation for where rates could peak around 4.5-5%, compared with the median Fed official expectation for 4.6%, are a bit higher.
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