An already strained U.S. stock market will be further challenged in the week ahead as the government publishes a key inflation report and megabanks kick off what’s likely to be a murky earnings season.

The highly-awaited Consumer Price Index (CPI) takes top billing in coming days, with third-quarter financials from the country’s largest banks – JPMorgan (JPM), Citi (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) – following suit in the line of importance.

A fresh CPI reading on Thursday is expected to dictate how much more aggressive the Federal Reserve will get with its interest rate hiking plans, which are already the most combative in decades. The consequential economic release will hold even greater significance after the Labor Department’s September jobs report on Friday suggested officials have further room for increases.

JPMorgan President and CEO Jamie Dimon testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., September 22, 2022. (REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein)

The U.S. economy added 263,000 jobs last month, a moderation from the prior print but still a robust hiring figure, as the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. The weaker-than-expected decline in payroll gains dashed investor hopes that FOMC members might shift away from monetary tightening sooner than anticipated.

That reality sent stocks spiraling on Friday. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) plunged 2.8%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) shed 630 points, and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the way down at a decline of 3.8%. The major averages managed to end higher for the week after three straight down weeks after retaining some gains from a transient rally the first two trading days of October.

“Persistent strength in hiring and a drop in the unemployment rate, in our view, mean the Fed is unlikely to pivot in the direction of a slower pace of rate hikes until it has more clear evidence that employment growth is slowing,” analysts at Bank of America said in a note on Friday, adding that the institution expects a fourth 75-basis-point rate increase in November.

And this week’s inflation reading could corroborate such a move next month. According to Bloomberg forecasts, the headline consumer price index for September is expected to show a slight moderation on a year-over-year figure to 8.1% from 8.3% in August, but an increase to 0.2% from 0.1% over the month.

All eyes will be on the “core” component of the report, which strips out the volatile food and energy categories. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project core CPI rose to 6.5% from 6.3% over the year but moderated to 0.4% monthly from 0.6% in August.

Marginal fluctuations in the data have not been reassuring enough to Federal Reserve members that they can step away from intervening any time soon. Speaking at an event in New York last week, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly called inflation a “corrosive disease,”and a “toxin that erodes the real purchasing power of people.”

A sign for the Federal Reserve Board of Governors is seen at the entrance to the William McChesney Martin Jr. building ahead of a news conference by Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell on interest rate policy, in Washington, U.S., September 21, 2022. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

Elsewhere in economic releases, investors will also get a gauge of how quickly prices are rising at the wholesale level with the producer price index, or PPI, which measures the change in the prices paid to U.S. producers of goods and services; a reading on how consumer spending is faring amid persistent inflation and slowing economic conditions with the government’s retail sales report; and a consumer sentiment check from the University of Michigan closely watched survey.

Meanwhile, bank earnings will set the stage for a third-quarter earnings season expected to be ridden with economic warnings from corporate executives about the state of their businesses, slashed earnings per share estimates across Wall Street, and generally milder results as price and rate pressures weighed on companies in the recent three-month period.

Results from JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley are all on tap for the coming week and will be followed by Goldman Sachs (GS) and Bank of America (BAC) the following week.