In other words, while Regal probably does suffer froma structural inefficiency, it's the same inefficiency its competitors suffer from. There is nothing inherently less efficient about Regal compared to AMC or Cinemark. This is an industry-wide problem.
This is why the bankruptcy may not help AMC much. Since Regal theaters are just as (in)efficient as AMC's, the bankruptcy court might very well leave them to continue to operate, while conducting a debt-to-equity conversion to secure the capital needed to pay off the judgement and other expenses.
There's no way to know that, of course, and I don't dismiss the possibility of a trimming of the theater fleet or perhaps even a wholesale liquidation. In any oversupplied industry, a bankruptcy can be a perfect opportunity to trim costs by closing locations, walking away from leases, and otherwise getting a jump start on cutting costs that might otherwise be locked in for the next few years. Even if Regal is just as good as AMC, if one of them has to go to balance an oversupplied industry, perhaps the bankruptcy is the tiebreaker that decides which?
I'm not entirely convinced, but let's assume that's true. I'm still not sure AMC is the winner in that scenario.
Comments