JinHan
2022-12-14

CPI figures came in lower than expected for the month of November. It did not come as a surprise to me. 

Previously when Fed Fund Rate was 3.00-3.75%, the inflation came down from 8.2% to 7.7% which represents a 0.5% slowdown. 

After which, the Fed hiked another 75bps which lead to the Fed Fund Rate to be at 3.75-4.00%. At this higher rate, I would naturally think inflation wouldslow down by more than 0.5% (definitely slower than the previous month given the sustained rate hike). November CPI figures indeed came in lower at 7.1% from 7.7% (a 0.6% slow down).

Should the Fed continue to hike another 50-75bps,I believe 7.1% would come down to 6.4% (0.7% slow down) for the month of December. For sure, thisis not a simple logical math game but at the look ofit, inflation should slow down faster than expected with sustained rate hike. 

Having said that, China economy is opening up as well which represents another market catalyst (more spending around the world). I believe we have bottomed in October with all these key events in mind.

I am invested in $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ APPLE, AMAZON, QQQ, VOO.

Please do like and share your views and opinion! Hope you like the post! Follow me for more insights!

Sep. CPI: Will rate hike pause in November?
September headline CPI is 3.7%, slightly higher than consensus of 3.6%; core CPI is 4.1%, lower than previous data of 4.3%. ---------------------------- Any thoughts on the CPI data? Will rate hike pause in November? How to trade after the CPI report?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • Trevelyan
    2022-12-14
    Trevelyan
    Am bullish about Berkshire, but not including google
    • JinHanReplyTrevelyan: 
      I see! Interesting!
    • TrevelyanReplyJinHan: 
      Its valuation is wonderful, but recent business adjustments are not cool in my opinion. Haha
    • JinHan: 
      Investing into Berkshire is similar to investing into an index/ fund! Curious why not Google when their valuation is in the teens!
  • Juliaaa11
    2022-12-14
    Juliaaa11
    Microsoft's recent acquisition rumors seem to be very exciting...
    • JinHanReplyJuliaaa11: 
      I am hopeful that it will turn out well!
    • Juliaaa11ReplyJinHan: 
      Curious about how much this investment will bring to it!
    • JinHan: 
      Agreed! I’m surprised and did not see it coming at all. I peraonally feel that the 4% stake in LSEG is definitely a good investment!
  • Lionel8383
    2022-12-15
    Lionel8383
    Impact of hikes and inflation are always lagging. not expecting technology and discretionary to recover until second half of 2023 now
    • JinHan: 
      It is a trailing indicator but also the indicator we rely on to see if it is falling/ slowing down!
  • JC888
    2022-12-14
    JC888
    Jokingly - - are you inferring that the Fed needs to raise interest continuously until CPI register a growth of 2% only? Hee hee..
    It will be heaven for Savers....
    • JC888ReplyJinHan: 
      Agree... hee hee
    • JinHan: 
      Not really. Increasing expedite the process but maintaining the current rate until the inflation is back down at stable 2% helps as well! For sure its good for savers/ fixed deposits!
  • Zack44
    2022-12-14
    Zack44
    Thanks for sharing 👍👍👍
    • Zack44: 
      💪💪💪 can you please support me cheers 😬😬😬
      https://tigr.link/mRATs?invite=7HGE13&platform=iOS&shareID=73bc825ecd3b5058742d0b04184ed301&utm_source=invite&utm_campaign=20221031201028&utm_medium=copy
    • KLC: 
      💪💪
    • JinHan: 
      You are most welcome!
  • Sonoma
    2022-12-14
    Sonoma
    Thank you for sharing
    • JinHan: 
      You are most welcome!
Leave a comment
110
1