From various reports and writings on the Elliot Wave, there is a high probability that the market will go down as part of the Fed tightening cycle in the near term, going into 2023. This will likely be a result of Big Tech dragging down the indices and hence fear will once again rear its head.
While this comes with higher probability, I do not advocate shorting the market. There could be likely drops but because of high volatility, it could swing back quickly, which could negate the short or possibly generate losses.
There are also potentially more profitable trades on individual stocks. Like those with high beta or meme stocks which could rise in ared sea. Options are of course one option but you need to be conversant with them.
As for conviction stocks, a trader once said that rather than time the bottom of the market, just buy them if you think the bottom is near. Regret is worse than paper losses.
Expressed above are but opinions. All trading comes with risks.
Comments