Gold prices tested the highest levels since June before the December FOMC meeting as the market attempted to price in peak rates. Prices are still toying with the 200-day moving average, with support around USD 1,720/oz and resistance around USD 1,840/oz. Gold has been caught between USD strength, faster-than-expected rate hikes, multi-decade high inflation and the looming risk of recession. The physical market has proved to be price-elastic, providing a cushion on the downside. While we expect some themes to persist in 2023, such as a responsive physical market floor, we expect some headwinds to recede, such as the 75bps Fed rate hikes. Elevated rates and broad USD strength are still likely to cap upside momentum, but we believe the bulk of the downside is priced in already. ETF holdings stabilising will be key to watch.
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