Summary

Apple’s iPhone event was announced Sept. 7 amid concerns of growing macroeconomic headwinds.

The earlier than usual timing of Apple’s iPhone event signifies its supply chain problems from 2021 have been eliminated, a tailwind for a strong iPhone 14 introduction.

Although smartphone sales have slowed in 2022, Apple’s shipments and market share have actually increased.

Apple's lack of quantitative guidance for the quarter adds to speculation and complicates investment strategy.

I see strong growth potential for Apple from microeconomic factors limited by macroeconomic uncertainties.

Apple stock has been under pressure since the end July 2022 when research companies started publishing disappointing Q2 smartphone shipments and when Micron (MU) presented dire guidance on memory sales following a slowdown in consumer electronicsproducts like smartphone and PCs.

In this article, I present my thesis that suggests Apple’s flagship smartphone sales will be better than anticipated by a deep dive into 1H2022 results, as will its other products, in light of Apple’s lack of empirical guidance for F4Q.

Apple's September 7 Event - Earlier Than Usual A Positive With No Supply Chain Problems

Apple recently sent out invitations to its “Far Out” event slated to be held at the Steve Jobs Theater in Cupertino, California on Sept. 7. As seen in Table 1, all iPhone events since the iPhone 4S in 2011 were introduced later than the Sept. 7, 2022, date of the iPhone 14 event.

Apple

This suggests that Apple’s supply chain is under control and can deliver on time. In previous years, several iPhones were introduced later than planned, primarily due to supply chain issues. The iPhone 12 was delayed because of 5G parts shortages.

Last year's iPhone 13 production ultimately fell 20% short of the initial plan in September and October. The root cause of delays revolved around the need for a supplier ramp of sensor-shift optical image stabilization to all four iPhone 13 models when Apple had only used sensor-shift stabilization on the iPhone 12 Pro Max, while the other models relied on OIS (optical image stabilization).

Even with the iPhone 14 development, there have been glitches in the camera coating. Rear cameras that Taiwan’s Genius Electronic Optical Co. supplied experienced coating-crack quality issues. As a result, Apple had to move 10 million lens orders to Largan Precision to prevent iPhone 14 shipment delays.