Valuation is indeed expensive.

2022-09-12

Valuation is indeed expensive. Consumer staples and energy sector could be a better proposition in such times. Chinese ADRs Is the way to go....

Sliding Earnings Forecasts Pose Next Test for Markets

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Comments

KarenAldridge
2022-09-12
KarenAldridge
I quite agree with you. For the current investment environment and economic environment, the high valuation may not be accepted by the market.
- Furufurux2:
  Patience is i guess the most important thing right now if we had done all the research. Markets have all ways to invalidate all opinions but it cant change the longer term narrative.
- KarenAldridgeReplyFurufurux2:
  At present, having cash is the most important. Everyone has become cautious.
- Furufurux2:
  Yeah. Investors positioning has also changed. Volatile period. :)

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Consumer staples and energy sector could be a better proposition in such times.&nbsp;Chinese ADRs Is the way to go....</body></html>","text":"Valuation is indeed expensive. Consumer staples and energy sector could be a better proposition in such times. Chinese ADRs Is the way to go....","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9932726525","repostId":2266349776,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2266349776","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1662980421,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2266349776?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-12 19:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sliding Earnings Forecasts Pose Next Test for Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2266349776","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Stocks finally snapped a three-week streak of losses. Whether they can keep up their recovery may de","content":"<html><head></head><body>Stocks finally snapped a three-week streak of losses. Whether they can keep up their recovery may depend in part on how earnings season plays out next month.Analysts have cut their estimates for third-quarter earnings growth by 5.5 percentage points since June 30, according to John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet. That is more than usual and marks the biggest cut since the second quarter of 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic and ensuing lockdowns brought economic activity to a standstill.Companies also have been looking increasingly pessimistic lately. A total of 240 companies in the S&amp;P 500 mentioned recession on their postearnings conference calls for the last quarter, the most ever in FactSet&#39;s data going back to 2010.Even with the outlook for the coming earnings season darkening, markets have been resilient. That is in part because companies are still expected to report modest earnings growth through the rest of the year, and other data points such as employment and consumer spending have continued to show strength in the economy. Yet investors and analysts caution that stocks&#39; recent gains look vulnerable, should data take a turn for the worse in the coming months.&#34;You&#39;ve got this really unpleasant combination of very high inflation, an economy that&#39;s already slowing down, and a central bank that&#39;s tightening policy rapidly,&#34; said Dave Grecsek, managing director in investment strategy and research at Aspiriant.Stock valuations also remain elevated, Mr. Grecsek said.The S&amp;P 500 trades at 17 times its next 12 months of expected earnings, according to FactSet. That is below its five-year average, but above where it was at the end of the second quarter, due to the fact that stock prices have risen while earnings estimates have fallen.&#34;All things considered, it doesn&#39;t really feel like a good time to be adding risk here,&#34; Mr. Grecsek said.The S&amp;P 500 is down 15% for the year, despite its last week of gains and its brief summer rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average remains down 12% for the year.To be sure, companies have largely proven to be more resilient in the face of slowing growth and high inflation than investors feared.Home improvement retailer Home Depot Inc. last month reported record earnings and revenue for the second quarter, thanks in part to consumers spending more on every transaction than they did a year ago.The consumer &#34;has been more resilient than we even expected in the beginning of the year,&#34; said Richard McPhail, the company&#39;s chief financial officer, on its earnings call.Other companies heavily focused on consumers, such as Dick&#39;s Sporting Goods Inc., Walmart Inc. and Kroger Co., also have posted stronger-than-expected earnings.What many investors fear is that, eventually, companies that have been able to weather rising costs by raising prices for their goods and services will be less able to do so as the Federal Reserve keeps tightening monetary policy. The Fed has said it is determined to bring inflation down through its interest-rate increases, even if it comes at the expense of economic growth.&#34;If your revenues are going down, but costs for labor, materials and other things are still challenging, that could be a real headwind to earnings,&#34; said Anujeet Sareen, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global.Mr. Sareen says his team has been generally reducing exposure to riskier assets this year and focusing on companies whose balance sheets look strongest.So far, the decline in earnings estimates hasn&#39;t been big enough to put companies on course for losses. S&amp;P 500 companies are still expected to post earnings growth of 3.7% for the third quarter, according to FactSet. That would mark the slowest pace of growth since the third quarter of 2020.While some investors have seen falling earnings estimates as a foreboding sign, Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse, says in periods of high inflation, earnings have historically peaked just two months before the start of a recession.That means earnings estimates would have to fall much more for them to signal an economic downturn was imminent, he said.</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sliding Earnings Forecasts Pose Next Test for Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSliding Earnings Forecasts Pose Next Test for Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\nDow Jones \n2022-09-12 19:00\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Stocks finally snapped a three-week streak of losses. Whether they can keep up their recovery may depend in part on how earnings season plays out next month.Analysts have cut their estimates for third-quarter earnings growth by 5.5 percentage points since June 30, according to John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet. That is more than usual and marks the biggest cut since the second quarter of 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic and ensuing lockdowns brought economic activity to a standstill.Companies also have been looking increasingly pessimistic lately. A total of 240 companies in the S&amp;P 500 mentioned recession on their postearnings conference calls for the last quarter, the most ever in FactSet&#39;s data going back to 2010.Even with the outlook for the coming earnings season darkening, markets have been resilient. That is in part because companies are still expected to report modest earnings growth through the rest of the year, and other data points such as employment and consumer spending have continued to show strength in the economy. Yet investors and analysts caution that stocks&#39; recent gains look vulnerable, should data take a turn for the worse in the coming months.&#34;You&#39;ve got this really unpleasant combination of very high inflation, an economy that&#39;s already slowing down, and a central bank that&#39;s tightening policy rapidly,&#34; said Dave Grecsek, managing director in investment strategy and research at Aspiriant.Stock valuations also remain elevated, Mr. Grecsek said.The S&amp;P 500 trades at 17 times its next 12 months of expected earnings, according to FactSet. That is below its five-year average, but above where it was at the end of the second quarter, due to the fact that stock prices have risen while earnings estimates have fallen.&#34;All things considered, it doesn&#39;t really feel like a good time to be adding risk here,&#34; Mr. Grecsek said.The S&amp;P 500 is down 15% for the year, despite its last week of gains and its brief summer rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average remains down 12% for the year.To be sure, companies have largely proven to be more resilient in the face of slowing growth and high inflation than investors feared.Home improvement retailer Home Depot Inc. last month reported record earnings and revenue for the second quarter, thanks in part to consumers spending more on every transaction than they did a year ago.The consumer &#34;has been more resilient than we even expected in the beginning of the year,&#34; said Richard McPhail, the company&#39;s chief financial officer, on its earnings call.Other companies heavily focused on consumers, such as Dick&#39;s Sporting Goods Inc., Walmart Inc. and Kroger Co., also have posted stronger-than-expected earnings.What many investors fear is that, eventually, companies that have been able to weather rising costs by raising prices for their goods and services will be less able to do so as the Federal Reserve keeps tightening monetary policy. The Fed has said it is determined to bring inflation down through its interest-rate increases, even if it comes at the expense of economic growth.&#34;If your revenues are going down, but costs for labor, materials and other things are still challenging, that could be a real headwind to earnings,&#34; said Anujeet Sareen, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global.Mr. Sareen says his team has been generally reducing exposure to riskier assets this year and focusing on companies whose balance sheets look strongest.So far, the decline in earnings estimates hasn&#39;t been big enough to put companies on course for losses. S&amp;P 500 companies are still expected to post earnings growth of 3.7% for the third quarter, according to FactSet. That would mark the slowest pace of growth since the third quarter of 2020.While some investors have seen falling earnings estimates as a foreboding sign, Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse, says in periods of high inflation, earnings have historically peaked just two months before the start of a recession.That means earnings estimates would have to fall much more for them to signal an economic downturn was imminent, he said.</body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4191":"家用电器","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4007":"制药","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SH":"标普500反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","TERN":"Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","CRCT":"Cricut, Inc.","BK4539":"次新股"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2266349776","content_text":"Stocks finally snapped a three-week streak of losses. Whether they can keep up their recovery may depend in part on how earnings season plays out next month.Analysts have cut their estimates for third-quarter earnings growth by 5.5 percentage points since June 30, according to John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet. That is more than usual and marks the biggest cut since the second quarter of 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic and ensuing lockdowns brought economic activity to a standstill.Companies also have been looking increasingly pessimistic lately. A total of 240 companies in the S&P 500 mentioned recession on their postearnings conference calls for the last quarter, the most ever in FactSet's data going back to 2010.Even with the outlook for the coming earnings season darkening, markets have been resilient. That is in part because companies are still expected to report modest earnings growth through the rest of the year, and other data points such as employment and consumer spending have continued to show strength in the economy. Yet investors and analysts caution that stocks' recent gains look vulnerable, should data take a turn for the worse in the coming months.\"You've got this really unpleasant combination of very high inflation, an economy that's already slowing down, and a central bank that's tightening policy rapidly,\" said Dave Grecsek, managing director in investment strategy and research at Aspiriant.Stock valuations also remain elevated, Mr. Grecsek said.The S&P 500 trades at 17 times its next 12 months of expected earnings, according to FactSet. That is below its five-year average, but above where it was at the end of the second quarter, due to the fact that stock prices have risen while earnings estimates have fallen.\"All things considered, it doesn't really feel like a good time to be adding risk here,\" Mr. Grecsek said.The S&P 500 is down 15% for the year, despite its last week of gains and its brief summer rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average remains down 12% for the year.To be sure, companies have largely proven to be more resilient in the face of slowing growth and high inflation than investors feared.Home improvement retailer Home Depot Inc. last month reported record earnings and revenue for the second quarter, thanks in part to consumers spending more on every transaction than they did a year ago.The consumer \"has been more resilient than we even expected in the beginning of the year,\" said Richard McPhail, the company's chief financial officer, on its earnings call.Other companies heavily focused on consumers, such as Dick's Sporting Goods Inc., Walmart Inc. and Kroger Co., also have posted stronger-than-expected earnings.What many investors fear is that, eventually, companies that have been able to weather rising costs by raising prices for their goods and services will be less able to do so as the Federal Reserve keeps tightening monetary policy. The Fed has said it is determined to bring inflation down through its interest-rate increases, even if it comes at the expense of economic growth.\"If your revenues are going down, but costs for labor, materials and other things are still challenging, that could be a real headwind to earnings,\" said Anujeet Sareen, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global.Mr. Sareen says his team has been generally reducing exposure to riskier assets this year and focusing on companies whose balance sheets look strongest.So far, the decline in earnings estimates hasn't been big enough to put companies on course for losses. S&P 500 companies are still expected to post earnings growth of 3.7% for the third quarter, according to FactSet. That would mark the slowest pace of growth since the third quarter of 2020.While some investors have seen falling earnings estimates as a foreboding sign, Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse, says in periods of high inflation, earnings have historically peaked just two months before the start of a recession.That means earnings estimates would have to fall much more for them to signal an economic downturn was imminent, he said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":303,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":121,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":103890862,"commentId":"103890862","gmtCreate":1662998154630,"gmtModify":1663258739028,"authorId":9000000000000524,"author":{"id":9000000000000524,"idStr":"9000000000000524","authorId":9000000000000524,"name":"KarenAldridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053dcea75162acc6c407b80e663a5f95","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9932726525,"objectIdStr":"9932726525","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"I quite agree with you. For the current investment environment and economic environment, the high valuation may not be accepted by the market.","text":"I quite agree with you. For the current investment environment and economic environment, the high valuation may not be accepted by the market.","html":"I quite agree with you. For the current investment environment and economic environment, the high valuation may not be accepted by the market.","likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"subComments":[{"id":103912590,"commentId":"103912590","gmtCreate":1663116358542,"gmtModify":1663258832547,"authorId":4125984238283662,"author":{"id":4125984238283662,"idStr":"4125984238283662","authorId":4125984238283662,"name":"Furufurux2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/43866eda26255d5c0c51bc701cfee046","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9932726525,"objectIdStr":"9932726525","type":1,"supId":103890862,"supIdStr":"103890862","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"Patience is i guess the most important thing right now if we had done all the research. Markets have all ways to invalidate all opinions but it cant change the longer term narrative.","text":"Patience is i guess the most important thing right now if we had done all the research. Markets have all ways to invalidate all opinions but it cant change the longer term narrative.","html":"Patience is i guess the most important thing right now if we had done all the research. Markets have all ways to invalidate all opinions but it cant change the longer term narrative."},{"id":103906801,"commentId":"103906801","gmtCreate":1663082632868,"gmtModify":1663258807252,"authorId":9000000000000524,"author":{"id":9000000000000524,"idStr":"9000000000000524","authorId":9000000000000524,"name":"KarenAldridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053dcea75162acc6c407b80e663a5f95","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":4125984238283662,"repliedAuthor":{"id":4125984238283662,"idStr":"4125984238283662","authorId":4125984238283662,"name":"Furufurux2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/43866eda26255d5c0c51bc701cfee046","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":9932726525,"objectIdStr":"9932726525","type":1,"supId":103890862,"supIdStr":"103890862","prevId":103890933,"prevIdStr":"103890933","content":"At present, having cash is the most important. Everyone has become cautious.","text":"At present, having cash is the most important. Everyone has become cautious.","html":"At present, having cash is the most important. Everyone has become cautious."},{"id":103890933,"commentId":"103890933","gmtCreate":1662998680144,"gmtModify":1663258739446,"authorId":4125984238283662,"author":{"id":4125984238283662,"idStr":"4125984238283662","authorId":4125984238283662,"name":"Furufurux2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/43866eda26255d5c0c51bc701cfee046","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9932726525,"objectIdStr":"9932726525","type":1,"supId":103890862,"supIdStr":"103890862","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"Yeah. Investors positioning has also changed. Volatile period. :)","text":"Yeah. Investors positioning has also changed. Volatile period. :)","html":"Yeah. Investors positioning has also changed. Volatile period. :)"}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/9932726525"}