INCONCEIVABLE

Tue Sep 13

These markets remind me of that timeless exchange between Vizzini and Inigo Montoyo in the Princess Bride: “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.”. Not much to say lately. Stocks have been stuck between inexperienced money managers who only know easy money and a new reality. Today was supposed to be a big rally. Rumor has it that 48 of 50 Street economists totally missed this CPI print. Reality won. It always will in the absence of central bank manipulation. I continue to like the commodity and energy sectors. Short-term swings with futures and short option plays look best. If you dabble with short premium, watch your gamma. Explosive price bursts in either direction are likely while the Fed sorts out its monetary policy. I don’t believe we will get a soft landing. Rates could easily double from here. Corporate earnings will get hammered. Forward guidance will reek. Look for significant layoffs across the board. Don’t even get me started on real estate. The majority of the world issues adjustable rate mortgages. There could be a tsunami brewing out there for world real estate. Sounds like a great time to buy stocks, eh?

Good trading!

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Comments

ElvisMarner
2022-09-17
ElvisMarner
Are interest rates really going to double? That's unthinkable.
PandoraHaggai
2022-09-17
PandoraHaggai
Investing in energy is really a good decision in the current context.
HilaryWilde
2022-09-17
HilaryWilde
When everyone is panicking, it's the best time to buy stocks.
Maria_yy
2022-09-17
Maria_yy
The current CPI numbers are exceeding everyone's expectations.
EvanHolt
2022-09-17
EvanHolt
So you think a recession is bound to come, right?
HeyU
2022-09-14
HeyU
Ok

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