FOMC member Bullard stated that the market is currently underpricing the term 'Higher For Longer' rates. This means that the stock market is rallying recently when its suppose to be pricing in 'below trend growth'.
To support this argument :
I made a video about this, please check it out and like the video :)
https://youtu.be/jMNWe0q3988
1) Firstly, the stock market is too high now compared to bond market. Take for example the 2 year treasury bond which is the most bearish it has been since april 2021 ( according to Walter Bloomberg on twitter quoting CFTC ) while SP500 and the stock market was rallying. In addition, the 2 years yield is up while the 10 years yield is relatively flat which means that the bond market is pricing in that the FED will only pivot after 2 years. This shows that the stock market is abit too bullish now comparing to the bond market, which means that 'big money' are using the stock market as a tool to prey on retail investors as retail investor's are more easily manipulated then the suits in the bond market.
2) Secondly, FED members where a mix of 'dovish' & hawkish' before the June bottom. But ever since the June bottom, FED members have been coming out one after the other and becoming more and more hawkish which lead up to Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole. I believe the reason for this is because the FED wants the stock market to price in long and sustained rate hike, but the stock market is pricing in the exact oposite and is currently pricing in the narrative of a chance for FED pivot. This is why the FED is becoming more and more hawkish in an attempt to slow down the stock market.
Comments
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
Elon Musk suggested the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates by 0.25%, saying that a major hike would risk deflation.
The suggestion by the world’s richest man came in response to a Twitter user who asked Musk what the Fed should do, and after an earlier post fromArk Investment Management’s Cathie Wood.
On Tuesday, unexpectedly hot inflation datavirtually assuredmarkets that the Fed will raise rates by 75 basis points next week.