Bloomberg

The QQQ has not revisited its lows of approximately $270 witnessed on June 16, remaining roughly 10% higher, which would suggest that the QQQ is overvalued versus the iShares TIPS BOND ETF (TIP) and could see further losses in the near term. The higher yields rise, the lower the TIP ETF sinks, and the greater the downside risk for the QQQ ETF.

Real Rates vs. Earnings Yield

One way to check against this is to look at the spread between the Nasdaq 100 earnings yield and the current 10-Yr TIP Rate. Currently, that spread is 3.6%, and despite the Nasdaq 100 trading more than 25% off its November 2021 intraday highs, the index is more expensive today versus the 10-yr real yield than at any other point since 2010.

Bloomberg

It's remarkable because the falling Nasdaq hasn't kept pace with the rising 10-Yr real yield. If the Nasdaq had been keeping pace, the spread with the 10-yr real rate wouldn't have sunk so low. This can only suggest two things: 1) real yields are too high, or 2) the Nasdaq has much further to fall. Given the path the Fed is taking, the general trend in rates, and the dollar, it seems hard to argue that TIP rates are too high.

A Return To The Norms

Over the past five years, the average spread between the NASDAQ earnings yield and the 10-yr TIP rate has been around 4.25% and within a one standard deviation range of 3.95% to 4.50%. Assuming the 10-Yr TIP trades sideways for the next couple of weeks and remains at 85 bps, the earnings yield of the Nasdaq 100 would need to rise to 4.80% from its current 4.45% or roughly 35 bps for the spread to return to 3.95%. For the spread to rise back to the average of 4.25%, the earnings yield would need to rise to 5.1%, or by nearly 65 bps.