Summary

Rates are rising to new cycle highs.

The dollar is rising to new cycle lows.

Which means the QQQ ETF may soon be sinking to a new low.

The economic data of the last couple of trading sessions has confirmed no recession here in the US. Has growth slowed? Sure, but slowing growth is not the same as a recession. Yes, we have had two quarters of negative GDP, but that's primarily due to the higher prices and the adverse effects on the calculations.

Today's ISM service data was solid and suggested the US economy is growing at a healthy2.5% annualized rate. This growth seems very strong, especially given the high prices in the economy and the aggressive tightening of financial conditions.

The strong data is sending yields and the dollar sharply higher. The dollar index is now at its highest point since June 2002, while the 30-yr yield is on the cusp of surpassing its November 2018 and June 2022 highs of around 3.5%. On top of that real rates are also surging, with the 5-yr TIP and 10-yr TIP Rates trading at their cycle highs.