[Smile] //@koolgal:🌟🌟🌟As we

2023-03-05

[Smile] //@koolgal:🌟🌟🌟As we mark 1 year anniversary of rate hikes, it has been a turbulent year for many investors in the markets. It seems like the volatility will continue unabated in 2023 as inflation is still high and the Feds are intent on quelling it to its target of 2%. All eyes will be on Jerome Powell as he takes the stage on March 15 to deliver the much anticipated news of the latest rate hikes. I believe it will be 25bps. However 50 bps is a possibility if the majority of the FOMC panel vote for it. The markets are fragile, so is the global economy with the possibility of recession. The Feds is walking a tight rope trying to balance the pace of interest rate hikes without causing a recession. But it is an inexact science. Whatever the outcome maybe, I

@Tiger_comments：1Y Anniversary of Rate Hike - When Will Fed Stop and Pivot?

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Comments

700k
2023-03-05
700k
c
Esther loh
2023-03-05
Esther loh
Ok
ECLC
2023-03-05
ECLC
ok
webberlucky
2023-03-05
webberlucky
o
Punk_dy
2023-03-05
Punk_dy
👍🏽
MarcusChan
2023-03-05
MarcusChan
thanks

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All eyes will be on Jerome Powell as he takes the stage on March 15 to deliver the much anticipated news of the latest rate hikes.&nbsp; I believe it will be 25bps.&nbsp; However 50 bps is a possibility if the majority of the FOMC panel vote for it.&nbsp; The markets are fragile, so is the global economy with the possibility of recession. The Feds is walking a tight rope trying to balance the pace of interest rate hikes without causing a recession.&nbsp; But it is an inexact science.&nbsp; Whatever the outcome maybe, I</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>[Smile]&nbsp;//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3559581955535845\">@koolgal</a>:🌟🌟🌟As we mark 1 year anniversary of rate hikes, it has been a turbulent year for many investors in the markets.&nbsp; It seems&nbsp;like the volatility will continue unabated in 2023&nbsp;as inflation is still high and the Feds are intent on quelling it to its target of 2%. All eyes will be on Jerome Powell as he takes the stage on March 15 to deliver the much anticipated news of the latest rate hikes.&nbsp; I believe it will be 25bps.&nbsp; However 50 bps is a possibility if the majority of the FOMC panel vote for it.&nbsp; The markets are fragile, so is the global economy with the possibility of recession. The Feds is walking a tight rope trying to balance the pace of interest rate hikes without causing a recession.&nbsp; But it is an inexact science.&nbsp; Whatever the outcome maybe, I</body></html>","text":"[Smile] //@koolgal:🌟🌟🌟As we mark 1 year anniversary of rate hikes, it has been a turbulent year for many investors in the markets. It seems like the volatility will continue unabated in 2023 as inflation is still high and the Feds are intent on quelling it to its target of 2%. All eyes will be on Jerome Powell as he takes the stage on March 15 to deliver the much anticipated news of the latest rate hikes. I believe it will be 25bps. However 50 bps is a possibility if the majority of the FOMC panel vote for it. The markets are fragile, so is the global economy with the possibility of recession. The Feds is walking a tight rope trying to balance the pace of interest rate hikes without causing a recession. But it is an inexact science. Whatever the outcome maybe, I","highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":37,"commentSize":31,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940278755","repostId":9940874985,"repostType":1,"repost":{"magic":2,"id":9940874985,"tweetId":"9940874985","gmtCreate":1677841912248,"gmtModify":1677847458038,"author":{"id":3501196737273098,"idStr":"3501196737273098","authorId":3501196737273098,"authorIdStr":"3501196737273098","name":"Tiger_comments","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/227887b200e9925968650d5db4a8bfb3","vip":4,"userType":4,"introduction":"Tiger Official Account","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-4","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Tiger Star","description":"Join the tiger community for 2000 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Anniversary of Rate Hike - When Will Fed Stop and Pivot?","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>It was a year ago this month that the Fed launched its&nbsp;rate&nbsp;hike&nbsp;to&nbsp;combat&nbsp;inflation.At first, policymakers only take 25 basis points to tackle price surges.&nbsp;Subsequent months saw much larger hikes, enough to raise the Fed’s benchmark borrowing rate by 4.5 percentage points to its highest level since 2007.At&nbsp;this&nbsp;1&nbsp;year&nbsp;anniversary,&nbsp;we&nbsp;can&nbsp;review&nbsp;these&nbsp;questions:<ol><li>what's&nbsp;the&nbsp;end&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;rate&nbsp;hike&nbsp;cycle?</li><li>when&nbsp;will&nbsp;Fed&nbsp;stop&nbsp;rate&nbsp;hikes&nbsp;and&nbsp;turn&nbsp;to&nbsp;rate&nbsp;cuts?</li><li>what's&nbsp;the&nbsp;target&nbsp;rate&nbsp;for&nbsp;March?</li></ol><h2>1.&nbsp;What’s the end of this rate hike cycle?&nbsp;-&nbsp;5.5%&nbsp;is&nbsp;a&nbsp;consensus</h2>The benchmark rate&nbsp;currently&nbsp;ranges between 4.5% and 4.75%.Markets figure the Fed will take that rate up to a range between 5.25%-5.5% before stopping, according to futures trading data.Swaps markets are pricing a peak Fed policy rate of 5.5% in September while some traders are betting the benchmark interest rate could rise to 6%.Kashkari reiterated that in December he saw the fed funds rate rising to&nbsp;as high as 5.4% in this tightening cycle.&nbsp;Financial-market bets for the peak rate reached 5.5% Wednesday.<h2>2.&nbsp;When will Fed stop rate hikes and turn to rate cut?</h2>1)&nbsp;&nbsp;Stop&nbsp;rate&nbsp;hikes&nbsp;in&nbsp;summer?US stocks&nbsp;stopped losses&nbsp;after Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said<blockquote>the central bank could be in a position to pause rate hikes sometime this summer.</blockquote><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/12b9df83080fc94280b1be158454afe3\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">While Bostic’s remarks boosted sentiment Thursday, other central-bank officials in recent days have reinforced their hawkish rhetoric.2)&nbsp;Won't&nbsp;cut&nbsp;rates&nbsp;in&nbsp;2023?In January, the market expected&nbsp;the last rate hike of 25bps in March and a rate cut at the end of the year.&nbsp;However, the reality&nbsp;was&nbsp;contrary&nbsp;to&nbsp;expectations.Based on Fed rate futures pricing, the market has widely expected the end of the current rate hike cycle at 5.25%-5.5% and little chance of a year-end rate cut.<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/abbac06c5bb37d5ef4d4db1cf2335cc9\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"><h2>3.&nbsp;How much will Fed increase in March?</h2><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/26374cf809dab6c80d656e55579515b3\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">As of today, there are 74.8% probabilities that Fed will increase 25 bps.&nbsp;However,&nbsp;the&nbsp;probabilities&nbsp;will&nbsp;change&nbsp;after&nbsp;the&nbsp;CPI.Some&nbsp;Fed&nbsp;officials&nbsp;also&nbsp;expressed&nbsp;that&nbsp;they&nbsp;may&nbsp;support&nbsp;50bps&nbsp;in&nbsp;March.Minutes from the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 FOMC meeting showed that“a few”participants favored or could have supported&nbsp;a 50 basis-point increase.<hr>How&nbsp;do&nbsp;you&nbsp;view&nbsp;1-year&nbsp;anniversary&nbsp;of&nbsp;rate&nbsp;hikes?How&nbsp;do&nbsp;you&nbsp;expect&nbsp;March&nbsp;rate&nbsp;hikes?Leave&nbsp;your&nbsp;comment&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;win&nbsp;tiger&nbsp;coins~</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>It was a year ago this month that the Fed launched its&nbsp;rate&nbsp;hike&nbsp;to&nbsp;combat&nbsp;inflation.At first, policymakers only take 25 basis points to tackle price surges.&nbsp;Subsequent months saw much larger hikes, enough to raise the Fed’s benchmark borrowing rate by 4.5 percentage points to its highest level since 2007.At&nbsp;this&nbsp;1&nbsp;year&nbsp;anniversary,&nbsp;we&nbsp;can&nbsp;review&nbsp;these&nbsp;questions:<ol><li>what's&nbsp;the&nbsp;end&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;rate&nbsp;hike&nbsp;cycle?</li><li>when&nbsp;will&nbsp;Fed&nbsp;stop&nbsp;rate&nbsp;hikes&nbsp;and&nbsp;turn&nbsp;to&nbsp;rate&nbsp;cuts?</li><li>what's&nbsp;the&nbsp;target&nbsp;rate&nbsp;for&nbsp;March?</li></ol><h2>1.&nbsp;What’s the end of this rate hike cycle?&nbsp;-&nbsp;5.5%&nbsp;is&nbsp;a&nbsp;consensus</h2>The benchmark rate&nbsp;currently&nbsp;ranges between 4.5% and 4.75%.Markets figure the Fed will take that rate up to a range between 5.25%-5.5% before stopping, according to futures trading data.Swaps markets are pricing a peak Fed policy rate of 5.5% in September while some traders are betting the benchmark interest rate could rise to 6%.Kashkari reiterated that in December he saw the fed funds rate rising to&nbsp;as high as 5.4% in this tightening cycle.&nbsp;Financial-market bets for the peak rate reached 5.5% Wednesday.<h2>2.&nbsp;When will Fed stop rate hikes and turn to rate cut?</h2>1)&nbsp;&nbsp;Stop&nbsp;rate&nbsp;hikes&nbsp;in&nbsp;summer?US stocks&nbsp;stopped losses&nbsp;after Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said<blockquote>the central bank could be in a position to pause rate hikes sometime this summer.</blockquote><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/12b9df83080fc94280b1be158454afe3\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">While Bostic’s remarks boosted sentiment Thursday, other central-bank officials in recent days have reinforced their hawkish rhetoric.2)&nbsp;Won't&nbsp;cut&nbsp;rates&nbsp;in&nbsp;2023?In January, the market expected&nbsp;the last rate hike of 25bps in March and a rate cut at the end of the year.&nbsp;However, the reality&nbsp;was&nbsp;contrary&nbsp;to&nbsp;expectations.Based on Fed rate futures pricing, the market has widely expected the end of the current rate hike cycle at 5.25%-5.5% and little chance of a year-end rate cut.<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/abbac06c5bb37d5ef4d4db1cf2335cc9\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"><h2>3.&nbsp;How much will Fed increase in March?</h2><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/26374cf809dab6c80d656e55579515b3\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">As of today, there are 74.8% probabilities that Fed will increase 25 bps.&nbsp;However,&nbsp;the&nbsp;probabilities&nbsp;will&nbsp;change&nbsp;after&nbsp;the&nbsp;CPI.Some&nbsp;Fed&nbsp;officials&nbsp;also&nbsp;expressed&nbsp;that&nbsp;they&nbsp;may&nbsp;support&nbsp;50bps&nbsp;in&nbsp;March.Minutes from the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 FOMC meeting showed that“a few”participants favored or could have supported&nbsp;a 50 basis-point increase.<hr>How&nbsp;do&nbsp;you&nbsp;view&nbsp;1-year&nbsp;anniversary&nbsp;of&nbsp;rate&nbsp;hikes?How&nbsp;do&nbsp;you&nbsp;expect&nbsp;March&nbsp;rate&nbsp;hikes?Leave&nbsp;your&nbsp;comment&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;win&nbsp;tiger&nbsp;coins~</body></html>","text":"It was a year ago this month that the Fed launched its rate hike to combat inflation. At first, policymakers only take 25 basis points to tackle price surges. Subsequent months saw much larger hikes, enough to raise the Fed’s benchmark borrowing rate by 4.5 percentage points to its highest level since 2007. At this 1 year anniversary, we can review these questions: what's the end of the rate hike cycle? when will Fed stop rate hikes and turn to rate cuts? what's the target rate for March? 1. What’s the end of this rate hike cycle? - 5.5% is a consensus The benchmark rate currently ranges between 4.5% and 4.75%. Markets figure the Fed will take that rate up to a range between 5.25%-5.5% before stopping, according to futures trading data. Swaps markets are pricing a peak Fed policy rate of 5.5% in September while some traders are betting the benchmark interest rate could rise to 6%. Kashkari reiterated that in December he saw the fed funds rate rising to as high as 5.4% in this tightening cycle. Financial-market bets for the peak rate reached 5.5% Wednesday. 2. When will Fed stop rate hikes and turn to rate cut? 1) Stop rate hikes in summer? US stocks stopped losses after Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said the central bank could be in a position to pause rate hikes sometime this summer. While Bostic’s remarks boosted sentiment Thursday, other central-bank officials in recent days have reinforced their hawkish rhetoric. 2) Won't cut rates in 2023? In January, the market expected the last rate hike of 25bps in March and a rate cut at the end of the year. However, the reality was contrary to expectations. Based on Fed rate futures pricing, the market has widely expected the end of the current rate hike cycle at 5.25%-5.5% and little chance of a year-end rate cut. 3. How much will Fed increase in March? As of today, there are 74.8% probabilities that Fed will increase 25 bps. However, the probabilities will change after the CPI. Some Fed officials also expressed that they may support 50bps in March. Minutes from the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 FOMC meeting showed that“a few”participants favored or could have supported a 50 basis-point increase. How do you view 1-year anniversary of rate hikes? How do you expect March rate hikes? Leave your comment here to win tiger coins~","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940874985","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":[".IXIC",".DJI",".SPX"],"verified":2,"subType":2,"readableState":1,"subTypeObject":{"tweetId":9940874985,"totalAmount":1000,"balance":0,"end":true,"deadline":1680361913951,"description":"1000 tiger-coins have been distributed to 5 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