GameStop: Not Worth Your Investment But I Would Not Short-Sell It Either

ColinThorndike
2023-04-04

For every share of GME that is sold at a very high price, there has to be a buyer -- so in your incredibly unlikely scenario of GME going to some lofty price, it will be basically a zero sum game: for every dollar you get, someone else loses a dollar. Now you can argue that that those losing the money have extra cash that they wouldn't have spent, and so additional money gets injected into the economy, but the premise that GME can "go to the moon" is a flawed premise. Take a look at a chart of GME from the start of 2021 to the present. The notable short squeeze of Jan. 2021 hits a high that is never repeated. The surprise gamma-driven squeeze of March 2021 hits a high less than the Jan. 2021 high, the May 2021 high is less, and the November 2021 high is then even lower. After that, GME continues to decline with the next relative high in March 2022, followed by a lower high in August 2022, with a lower high in Oct. 2022. The recent surge in March, driven by one lone quarter of profitability, encouraging some shorts to take profits, and some hopeful GME cultists to buy in anticipation of better things to come, is the lowest high yet.

What will drive GME to a high exceeding that of Jan 2021? The number of short positions are less, the amount of free cash is less, GME has abandoned their most aggressive business plans such as becoming an online superpower or an NFT super-seller, now concentrating on just not losing money. Their revenue is falling, their online sales outlook looks bleak, and their main business, selling items in their stores, continues to decline, year over year, as more stores get shuttered. You feel free to hold, but don't delude yourself that there is a pot of gold at the end of this storm. $GameStop(GME)$

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