Amazon: Blinded By Optimism

delusion梦碎
2023-04-11

Great analysis making many great points with which i agree. the bulk of amzn's sales volume comes fr its high volume/low margin online retail biz that's marginally break even with its huge overhead employing over 1 million (which they overdid), building and maintaining warehouses (which they overdid) and requiring an army of trucks, vans and planes that have to be acquired, insured, maintained and fueled. as you aptly say, amzn serves customers and amzn execs well but is actually a lousy biz for shareholders for 1 very obvious reason: it lacks pricing power. price increases would drive sales away...the opposite of a great biz like apple's which has unmatched pricing power because of its fiercely loyal 1.2B worldwide users w/a satisfaction rating of 99%...apple's p/e is half amzn's. apple doesn't dilute shareholders by handing out millions of shares instead retiring more shares than any co ever as a result of its astonishing cash production. apple returns nearly all its over $100B cashflow to owners. amzn's long used excuse it's investing in the biz (so does apple) has worn thin. its share price has been halved by former shareholders finally figuring out amzn's biz model will never lead to large profits and capital return to owners. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$

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