Not really. The past few month

2023-01-12

Not really. The past few months have shownthat solid earnings doesn't result in upward movement much. Yes it might outperform the peers in a few trading sessions, but the gain is nothing. Whereas in the point of time when the market is upbeat due to favorable news related to rate hike, the increase is way more than that from a positive reporting session.

The Stock Market Should Worry About Earnings, Not Rate Hikes

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Comments

LesterTan
2023-01-12
LesterTan
In the long run, solid companies still outperform.
- LiuKarKit:
  Agreed, thought in view of short term results, which for some reason this article’s writing leans towards (my personal opinion), favorable news related to rate hikes has bigger impact on stock movement.
RK0948
2023-01-12
RK0948
Good to share more in future
RK0948
2023-01-12
RK0948
Thanks for sharing
BullishKing
2023-01-12
BullishKing
ok
EPK
2023-01-12
EPK
K
Xiiao
2023-01-12
Xiiao
.

Leave a comment

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The past few months have shownthat solid earnings doesn't result in upward movement much. Yes it might outperform the peers in a few trading sessions, but the gain is nothing. Whereas in the point of time&nbsp;when the market is upbeat due to favorable&nbsp;news related to&nbsp;rate hike, the increase is way more than that from a positive reporting session.&nbsp;</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Not really. The past few months have shownthat solid earnings doesn't result in upward movement much. Yes it might outperform the peers in a few trading sessions, but the gain is nothing. Whereas in the point of time&nbsp;when the market is upbeat due to favorable&nbsp;news related to&nbsp;rate hike, the increase is way more than that from a positive reporting session.&nbsp;</p></body></html>","text":"Not really. The past few months have shownthat solid earnings doesn't result in upward movement much. Yes it might outperform the peers in a few trading sessions, but the gain is nothing. Whereas in the point of time when the market is upbeat due to favorable news related to rate hike, the increase is way more than that from a positive reporting session.","highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":19,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951593776","repostId":1102349581,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102349581","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"1012688067","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1673507977,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1102349581?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-12 15:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Stock Market Should Worry About Earnings, Not Rate Hikes","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102349581","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"The stock market is fixated on interest rates and inflation, hoping a decline in the latter will bri","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The stock market is fixated on interest rates and inflation, hoping a decline in the latter will bring a fall in the former. The problem is that this would mean lower profits than currently expected.</p><p>Though it has been rallying this week, the S&amp;P 500 remains about 18% below its January 2022 record high. The main factor is that high inflation has prompted the Federal Reserve to lift interest rates in order to reduce demand for goods and services and keep prices from rising even more. An end to rate increases would allow investors to look ahead to the end of the economic damage they bring.</p><p>In the past month, the stock market’s inverse correlation to interest rates, themselves driven in part by expectations for inflation, has been extreme, with the S&amp;P 500 repeatedly rising in line with declines in real yields on 10-year Treasury debt.</p><p>According to Morgan Stanley data, over the past month, the correlation between gains in the index and the 10-year yield minus the expected annual inflation rate for the next decade has been minus 0.5%. To put that in context, since April 2021, the figure has ranged from 0.5%, with stocks rising despite higher yields, to -0.8%.</p><p>But there is a problem with investors pinning their hopes on declines in inflation. Doing so “ignores the ramifications of falling prices on profit margins, which is likely to outweigh any benefit from the perceived Fed dovishness equity investors are dreaming about later this year,” wrote Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist.</p><p>Lower inflation would mean smaller price increases—a negative for companies’ sales. And don’t forget: The Fed is trying to rein in price increases by cutting into demand, so the quantity of goods sold may well have declined by the time inflation is significantly lower.</p><p>Reduced sales would probably weigh on profit margins. Many companies have some fixed costs, so lower sales make businesses less profitable even if companies pull back on headcount and marketing expenses.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500’s aggregate operating margin for 2022 is expected to turn out to have been about 16.7%, according to FactSet. That is down a smidgen from 16.9% in 2021, when companies began aggressively raising prices, but it could fall further. In 2019, before the pandemic, the index’s operating margin was 15.5%.</p><p>Lower margins plus lower sales imply an ugly drop in earnings, indicating that analysts are likely to keep lowering their forecasts for profits. Stock prices would have to fall unless investors are willing to pay more now for each dollar of future earnings.</p><p>So while the stock market is looking far ahead, to when inflation is lower and the economy has recovered from the higher rates needed to achieve that, the shock of getting there may be bigger than investors expect now.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title> The Stock Market Should Worry About Earnings, Not Rate Hikes</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n The Stock Market Should Worry About Earnings, Not Rate Hikes\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1012688067\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-01-12 15:19</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>The stock market is fixated on interest rates and inflation, hoping a decline in the latter will bring a fall in the former. The problem is that this would mean lower profits than currently expected.</p><p>Though it has been rallying this week, the S&amp;P 500 remains about 18% below its January 2022 record high. The main factor is that high inflation has prompted the Federal Reserve to lift interest rates in order to reduce demand for goods and services and keep prices from rising even more. An end to rate increases would allow investors to look ahead to the end of the economic damage they bring.</p><p>In the past month, the stock market’s inverse correlation to interest rates, themselves driven in part by expectations for inflation, has been extreme, with the S&amp;P 500 repeatedly rising in line with declines in real yields on 10-year Treasury debt.</p><p>According to Morgan Stanley data, over the past month, the correlation between gains in the index and the 10-year yield minus the expected annual inflation rate for the next decade has been minus 0.5%. To put that in context, since April 2021, the figure has ranged from 0.5%, with stocks rising despite higher yields, to -0.8%.</p><p>But there is a problem with investors pinning their hopes on declines in inflation. Doing so “ignores the ramifications of falling prices on profit margins, which is likely to outweigh any benefit from the perceived Fed dovishness equity investors are dreaming about later this year,” wrote Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist.</p><p>Lower inflation would mean smaller price increases—a negative for companies’ sales. And don’t forget: The Fed is trying to rein in price increases by cutting into demand, so the quantity of goods sold may well have declined by the time inflation is significantly lower.</p><p>Reduced sales would probably weigh on profit margins. Many companies have some fixed costs, so lower sales make businesses less profitable even if companies pull back on headcount and marketing expenses.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500’s aggregate operating margin for 2022 is expected to turn out to have been about 16.7%, according to FactSet. That is down a smidgen from 16.9% in 2021, when companies began aggressively raising prices, but it could fall further. In 2019, before the pandemic, the index’s operating margin was 15.5%.</p><p>Lower margins plus lower sales imply an ugly drop in earnings, indicating that analysts are likely to keep lowering their forecasts for profits. Stock prices would have to fall unless investors are willing to pay more now for each dollar of future earnings.</p><p>So while the stock market is looking far ahead, to when inflation is lower and the economy has recovered from the higher rates needed to achieve that, the shock of getting there may be bigger than investors expect now.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102349581","content_text":"The stock market is fixated on interest rates and inflation, hoping a decline in the latter will bring a fall in the former. The problem is that this would mean lower profits than currently expected.Though it has been rallying this week, the S&P 500 remains about 18% below its January 2022 record high. The main factor is that high inflation has prompted the Federal Reserve to lift interest rates in order to reduce demand for goods and services and keep prices from rising even more. An end to rate increases would allow investors to look ahead to the end of the economic damage they bring.In the past month, the stock market’s inverse correlation to interest rates, themselves driven in part by expectations for inflation, has been extreme, with the S&P 500 repeatedly rising in line with declines in real yields on 10-year Treasury debt.According to Morgan Stanley data, over the past month, the correlation between gains in the index and the 10-year yield minus the expected annual inflation rate for the next decade has been minus 0.5%. To put that in context, since April 2021, the figure has ranged from 0.5%, with stocks rising despite higher yields, to -0.8%.But there is a problem with investors pinning their hopes on declines in inflation. Doing so “ignores the ramifications of falling prices on profit margins, which is likely to outweigh any benefit from the perceived Fed dovishness equity investors are dreaming about later this year,” wrote Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist.Lower inflation would mean smaller price increases—a negative for companies’ sales. And don’t forget: The Fed is trying to rein in price increases by cutting into demand, so the quantity of goods sold may well have declined by the time inflation is significantly lower.Reduced sales would probably weigh on profit margins. Many companies have some fixed costs, so lower sales make businesses less profitable even if companies pull back on headcount and marketing expenses.The S&P 500’s aggregate operating margin for 2022 is expected to turn out to have been about 16.7%, according to FactSet. That is down a smidgen from 16.9% in 2021, when companies began aggressively raising prices, but it could fall further. In 2019, before the pandemic, the index’s operating margin was 15.5%.Lower margins plus lower sales imply an ugly drop in earnings, indicating that analysts are likely to keep lowering their forecasts for profits. Stock prices would have to fall unless investors are willing to pay more now for each dollar of future earnings.So while the stock market is looking far ahead, to when inflation is lower and the economy has recovered from the higher rates needed to achieve that, the shock of getting there may be bigger than investors expect now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":861,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":294,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":105542000,"commentId":"105542000","gmtCreate":1673510636761,"gmtModify":1673510650191,"authorId":4105421923397120,"author":{"id":4105421923397120,"idStr":"4105421923397120","authorId":4105421923397120,"name":"LesterTan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1244d1eac543f84d6b2c017832a1d98d","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.01.19","exceedPercentage":"93.61%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9951593776,"objectIdStr":"9951593776","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"<span class=\"s1\">In the long run, solid companies still outperform.</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">In the long run, solid companies still outperform.</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">In the long run, solid companies still outperform.</span>","likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"subComments":[{"id":105542338,"commentId":"105542338","gmtCreate":1673512977254,"gmtModify":1673517677490,"authorId":3575414453819965,"author":{"id":3575414453819965,"idStr":"3575414453819965","authorId":3575414453819965,"name":"LiuKarKit","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/142e9bb4989aa0433e064e3c6e3f01a1","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.10.24","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9951593776,"objectIdStr":"9951593776","type":1,"supId":105542000,"supIdStr":"105542000","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"<span class=\"s1\">Agreed, thought in view of short term results, which for some reason this article’s writing leans towards (my personal opinion), favorable news related to rate hikes has bigger impact on stock movement.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\"> </span></span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">Agreed, thought in view of short term results, which for some reason this article’s writing leans towards (my personal opinion), favorable news related to rate hikes has bigger impact on stock movement.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\"> </span></span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">Agreed, thought in view of short term results, which for some reason this article’s writing leans towards (my personal opinion), favorable news related to rate hikes has bigger impact on stock movement.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\"> </span></span>"}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":105541985,"commentId":"105541985","gmtCreate":1673510515334,"gmtModify":1673510528030,"authorId":3572004565657160,"author":{"id":3572004565657160,"idStr":"3572004565657160","authorId":3572004565657160,"name":"RK0948","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a 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future","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":105541981,"commentId":"105541981","gmtCreate":1673510461003,"gmtModify":1673510474328,"authorId":3572004565657160,"author":{"id":3572004565657160,"idStr":"3572004565657160","authorId":3572004565657160,"name":"RK0948","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a 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