My Trading Plan for the week ahead

AlexTeddySG
2023-01-29

Earnings this week : AMZN, AAPL, META, GOOGL, XOM, GM, AMD ... Mega Caps and Large Caps.

And We have Fed Hike on 1st Feb.

I feel this week will be too volatile but has poor visibility. I will sit on sidelines for this week and prepare for Scalping opportunities.

Possible scenarios :

1. Fed goes 50 bps : then forget market for this week. (10% Probability)

2. Fed goes 25 bps but continues hawkish tone during press conference. Markets will correct. (90% Probability)

3. META Earnings add drama to above : A. Reports beat estimates but decreased revenue numbers YoY and for quarter and increased expenses. And Mark choose mid-path to tone changes and wary of upcoming tough times. (70% Probability)

META may go down to 125s

B. Reports beat estimates with hopeful guidance. (30% Probability) META may reach 180s.

Overall I could feel that after 5 weeks bullish run traders are waiting for slightest opportunity to book profits. And with fed at work, they will off-load which may end the week in negative. This would have additional drag on META post earnings performance. Though tempting, I wont enter META till earnings response is seen.

AAPL : Historically AAPL seldom did good post earnings. I would like to reduce the exposure to AAPL before earnings so will be targeting to offload some more (already did some 6 days back) and hold less. AAPL will report disappointing numbers but hopeful guidance which AAPL lovers will push it 4-5% post earnings.

Just my thoughts based on market progressions, some technicals and fundamentals and market sentiment. Lets see how it goes. NOT A RECOMENDATION. WRITTEN FOR MY PERSONAL TRADING PLAN for the week.

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Comments

  • BerniceCarter
    2023-01-30
    BerniceCarter
    Just waiting for earning reports from above stocks.
  • Guy
    2023-01-30
    Guy
    25 bps with high probability, so let's wait for more bullish trend.
  • CKF68
    2023-01-29
    CKF68
    Agree with u to wait for earning reports
  • Lynn098
    2023-01-30
    Lynn098
    Market looks bullish
  • AndreaClarissa
    2023-01-30
    AndreaClarissa
    AAPL will get a bearish trend in short term.
  • Best1
    2023-01-30
    Best1
    Thanks for sharing
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