Shelter is based on their moronic 'home owners equivalent ' rent, which is where they ask home owners to estimate what their home would rent for.

Not only is it not very accurate, but it also lags reality as it takes time for the respondents to notice the changing markets. It lagged on the way up, reporting lower figures than it should have, and now it is lagging on the way down, reporting higher than it should. They should really use one of the industry metrics that reports a more up to date figure.

That said, the inflation may not yet be over, and we still fear a repeat of the 1970s where the Fed eased off too early and the smoldering inflation burst into flame again.

And the market can still be irrational: witness the frankly awful earnings season we've just had but the market keeps bounding higher. Will it last? Who knows!