The largest holding in my 🇺🇸 portfolio that’s in the red🩸 is the S&P 500 Bear 3X ETF (SPXU). I didn’t sell at break-even in Dec 2022 thinking that a 🇺🇸 recession is inevitable. The reason why I bought SPXU was because recession-risk was high given the Fed’s aggressive rate hike cycle, the stubbornly high inflation that's still far-off from the Fed's 2% target🎯, & many companies laying off staff. The market did sell-off in Dec 2022 but it wasn’t as bad as I had expected it to be due to the sudden reopening in 🇨🇳 in Dec 2022 which greatly lifted the stock market. Even in Jan 2023, economists were still talking about 🇺🇸 entering into a recession, but suddenly in Feb, the recession-risk seems to have vanished💨💨💨
💡Learning Point: When buying leveraged ETFs in a 🐻 market, always wait✋ for the right opportunity✅⏰ to buy a 🐂 ETF because we can keep averaging down to wait for the 🐂 market which will eventually come❗️Hedging with 🐻 ETFs is Too Risky as we can be easily caught🎣 in the downtrend as there are Wayyy More Investors who are 🐂-ish than 🐻-ish even when economic data & 🌎📰 aren’t favourable😅🫠
Below, I’ll share the Recession-Risks Prediction Timeline for 2023🎢📉📈 so that fellow 🐯🐯🐯 can be updated & adapt your investing decisions accordingly😉
10 Jan 2023:
The Bloomberg survey of economists From Famous Financial Institutions were convinced that 🇺🇸 will enter a recession & pegged the likelihood of a recession occurring in 2023 to be about 70%⁉️
27 Jan 2023:
A statistical projection published by Statista Research Department indicates that by Dec 2023, there’s a 47.31% probability that the 🇺🇸 will fall into another economic recession. This is a significant increase from the projection of the preceding month where the probability came to 38.06%. The 🇺🇸 recession probabilities are predicted a year in advance by using the difference between 10-year & 3-month treasury rates.
This projection continues to show that recession-risk increases in 2H 2023🤷🏻♀️🤷🏻♀️🤷🏻♀️ But…less than a few days later,
6 Feb 2023:
After calling for a recession during the 1st half of 2022 & then for much of the latter half saying one was likely in 2023, some in the financial community are now reversing course. Wall Street titan Goldman Sachs, downgraded the odds of a recession within the next 12 months to 25% from its prior 35% on 6/2 (Mon). The revision came after the release of 2 economic data:
(1) 517,000 jobs added in Jan, nearly 3 times the number that had been forecast.
(2) Services sector index (from Institute for Supply Management) improved to 55.2 in Jan after having fallen to 49.2 in Dec.
🤔💭My Thoughts:
⭐️⭐️⭐️ We cannot rely solely on predictions from analysts or economists Even If They’re From Famous Financial Institutions to make our investing decisions as they can change their views in less than 1 month😧🥴😵💫⁉️
⭐️⭐️⭐️ We Need to Keep Ourselves Updated with the Latest📰 So That We Can Re-Analyse & Adapt our investing decisions based on Incoming Economic Data & 🌎📰💪💪💪
⭐️⭐️⭐️ We need to be dynamic & balanced in our investing ➡️ Change as economic data & 🗞🗞🗞 changes.
⚠️ I often read advice like “Don’t trade based on news📰” I honestly think this is a wrong advice because IF you didn’t follow 🗞🗞🗞, you would have missed out the 🇨🇳 re-opening rally💸💸💸
⭐️⭐️⭐️ Always buy undervalued profitable companies with strong fundamentals to hold during 🐻 markets, so that when the 🐻 is gone & hibernating, we’ll be able to reap profits💵💵💵 when the 🐂🐂🐂 come around❣️
Fellow 🐯🐯🐯 What are your thoughts on the above❓Do share them with me in the comments section❣️ Please help to click on the “Like” & “Share/Repost” buttons at the Bottom Right corner so that more 🐯🐯🐯 can access this information, many thanks🤗🥰 You will Greatly Encourage Me❣️
As usual-🤔💭 Consider POV & Actions of investors + 👩🏻💻👨🏻💻 Research + 🗑FOMO & Greed = Investing Wisely 🤓🤗 + Accumulating Wealth 💵💰
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