Just as how the market was blind-sided by the Ukraine-Russia conflict, I think we all should keep an eye out for the once-again deteriorating US-China relations (in the wake of the Chinese weather balloon's intrusion into US airspace), apart from just looking at US economic data & the Fed's next move in terms of monetary policies.
US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken has just cancelled/postponed a scheduled trip to Beijing in Feb 2023 after calling the airspace intrusion "irresponsible" (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/03/us-secretary-of-state-blinken-postpones-high-stakes-trip-to-china-after-us-discovers-suspected-spy-balloon-.html).
Prior to this incident, it had been widely reported in various media outlets that US 4-star General, Mike Minihan, had predicted an open US-China conflict in 2025 (over Taiwan no less), which in turn was criticized by a retired senior colonel of the PLA as "irresponsible" (https://time.com/6251419/us-china-general-war).
Given that US and China are both superpowers, an armed conflict between the two will be devastating and will have serious implications for the world and the global economy. Hopefully, both countries can recognize this and have a moment of pause before one or both sides decide to press the "WAR" button.
Nonetheless, even without any open armed conflict between US and China, any tests to the already fragile relations between the two countries could be enough to impact stock markets, particularly if sanctions arise, affecting Chinese/US commercial entities with operations in the opposite territories, and their respective stocks (including how these are treated if listed in the opposite's market).
As investors/traders, it'd thus be prudent for us to perhaps just keep an eye out on such extra-, macroeconomic variable, apart from focusing on US economic indicators and the Fed's monetary moves, when doing our calculations.
This is just my personal take as a retail investor, and not professional financial advice.
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