Alibaba Q3: Forget About Earnings. Assets Already Attractive Enough

Envision Research
2022-11-11

Alibaba is scheduled to report its September quarter (CY22 Q3) earnings on 11/17/2022. Investors are waiting anxiously given the many ongoing uncertainties ranging from the COVID situation to domestic politics, and also international geopolitical risks. Hope this article can help to ease your anxiety a bit by taking your focus away from the large uncertainties surrounding its Q3 earnings. You will see that regardless of what may happen to its Q3 earnings, the bulk of its current valuation can be supported just by its main assets as shown in the table below.

The table is a SOTP (sum of the parts) analysis based on its most recent financial filings. A few highlights in particular:

  1. Currently, more than 54% of its market cap is just current assets ($96.29B out of $178.1B), the asset item that has the least amount of uncertainty.
  2. Almost 69% of its current market cap is current asset/cash plus its net PPE (properties, plants, equipment), the 2nd more certain asset item in my mind.
  3. And finally, when we add its equity investments, these three parts would be worth about $189.4B, or $70.88 per ADS.

Compared to its current market cap of $178.1 (or $66.6 share price equivalently), these three items alone are already 6.4% above its market price.

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Comments

  • CyrilDavy
    2022-11-11
    CyrilDavy
    what is the conversion. It’s $67 in HK. This should go up to $120. Let’s rip past it and break that pin tomorrow.
  • FranklinMorley
    2022-11-11
    FranklinMorley
    going to rip down to negative price per share here pretty soon. Took the opportunity to dump these and switch into U.S. companies. Plenty of other opportunities here.
  • CatherineGunter
    2022-11-11
    CatherineGunter
    70$ has been major resistance, it will break then run hard to 80$. They'll be profitable eventually. It looks like a huge opportunity to me.
  • CSNeo
    2022-11-12
    CSNeo

    [财迷] 

  • DragonTycoon
    2022-11-11
    DragonTycoon
    beware of the central government
  • Lao Tzu Ang
    2022-11-12
    Lao Tzu Ang
    Chinese ADR will be safe if US and China relationship is good again.
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