RDPD富爸穷爸
2022-11-12

I have a different opinion. CPI has already shown signs of peak a few months back, moreover it is a lagging indicator. So the recent announcement that CPI had decreased was not a surprise at all. It was expected but market just react a few months late to this piece of 'good' news.

Jerome Powell had said multiple times in his speech inflation needs to be controlled. He also said that unemployment needs to rise as additional proof for FED to halt rate hikes. The fact that many firms are now 'downsizing' hint that FED policies  are working in their favour. 

Since this is not a normal recession but a 'FED induce recession' I maintain my view that this recession (if any) will be mild. It will not be 'dotcom or subprime type of crash' as many retail investors had expected.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/economy/federal-reserve-chair-jerome-powell-says-inflation-fight-may-cause-a-recession

Looking at the price action of $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  we are still in a downtrend despite the recent sharp reversal. Is this the start of the new bull? We will need to see higher low and higher high in price action to confirm the trend reversal. However as an investor, I continue to ignore short term mispricing of my favourite companies and continue to DCA. With a longer time investment horizon in mind, I know my investment will work out fine when market eventually recover. 

The worst thing to do is to time the market thinking that one can buy at the lowest. The recent 2 days of sharp reversal again show proof that no one can 'time' the market perfectly. As always, stick to a comfort style of investing or trading so one will not lose sleep over it. 

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Comments

  • MHh
    2022-11-14
    MHh
    Stock market is really unpredictable!
    • MHh
      Need guts and cash too! Not enough cash..
    • RDPD富爸穷爸
      That's the beauty of the game. We don't have to predict right. We just need to take the right decision during bear market and enjoy the fruits of labour during bull market.
  • BellaFaraday
    2022-11-15
    BellaFaraday
    It is hoped that the CPI data will drop further in the future.
    • RDPD富爸穷爸
      It's already peak and dropping. FED wants unemployment to increase before they pivot. Signs of job cuts are already here too.
  • Fenger1188
    2022-11-14
    Fenger1188
    谢谢精彩分享👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻
  • LEngLEng
    2022-11-13
    LEngLEng
    Great insights[Smile]
  • Cvt
    2022-11-12
    Cvt
    Thank for sharing
  • ElvisMarner
    2022-11-15
    ElvisMarner
    Unemployment continues to rise is not a good sign.
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