CrowdStrike fell 19% after releasing their earning reports. Is this large of a drop justified?

upupahcai
2022-11-30


$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$  $Snowflake(SNOW)$  

CrowdStrike fell as much as 20% after releasing their earning reports. Let's solely look at the negatives in the earning report to analyze if this massive drop is justified. 

Soft guidance 

CrowdStrike issued a relatively soft guidance for Q4, raising on EPS but lowering guidance for revenue. 

Overall revenue guidance for FY2023 remains unchanged with a slight increase in EPS expected. 

ARR (Annual recurring revenue) 

The very core of the business was below expectations. 

Although ARR grew 54% YoY, it is not shown that ARR merely grew 10% QoQ

"Total net new ARR was below our expectations as increased macroeconomic headwinds elongated sales cycles with smaller customers and caused some larger customers to pursue multi-phase subscription start dates, which delays ARR recognition until future quarters"- George Kurtz, CrowdStrike’s co-founder and chief executive officer


Macro headwind is still strong 

With customers opting for multi stage subscription start dates and decline in customer growth QoQ shows the increase in macro headwind 

Headcount growth to slow into next year 

CrowdStrike believe they have the talent in place and will shift their focus towards productivity moving forward 


Is the stock price drop justified? 

Wall Street are relentless this year on any companies showings signs of declining growth and CrowdStrike was not spared either

I do feel it doesn't deserve this large of a drop although this is also due to earnings multiple compression happening throughout.

The price now is more attractive for investors who wants a piece of pie in cyber security. I might initiate a small position once the price stabilize

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Comments

  • BerniceCarter
    2022-11-30
    BerniceCarter
    Would like to buy CrowdStrike at 130 USD.
    • upupahcai
      You will be happy you can get it at 111 usd now
  • AndreaClarissa
    2022-11-30
    AndreaClarissa
    After a huge fell,price is enough cheap for us to buy some.
    • upupahcai
      Value is still somewhat rich today
  • PenelopeHood
    2022-11-30
    PenelopeHood
    Yes i think i would like to put a small position as well.
  • Kaixiang
    2022-11-30
    Kaixiang
    Definitely not justified. Market’s just crushing it too excessively
  • psk
    2022-12-01
    psk
    thanks for sharing
  • kokakun
    2022-11-30
    kokakun
    Strike for the balance
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