Oil prices and the U.S. dollar have been moving in opposite directions around two-thirds of the time lately, reversing a recent pattern in which they tended to rise and fall in tandem.

One reason oil might rise when the dollar falls: oil is traded in dollars, so it becomes more expensive overseas when the U.S. currency rises, which can hurt demand. The opposite can happen when the dollar weakens. At the moment, analysts say a looming global recession is also simultaneously weighing on oil prices and supporting the dollar.

So why did the opposite pattern prevail in late 2021 and early 2022? Analysts at Capital Economics think that stemmed from a combination of the Fed raising interest-rates and putting upward pressure on the dollar at the same time the U.S. economy was recovering from the pandemic and giving a lift to crude.