HRHJMM
2022-11-17
$SINGTEL(Z74.SI)$ It's been a good week for Singapore Telecommunications Limited (SGX:Z74) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest half-yearly results, and the shares gained 6.7% to S$2.69. The results were positive, with revenue coming in at S$7.3b, beating analyst expectations by 2.1%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.


Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Singapore Telecommunications' 17 analysts is for revenues of S$15.3b in 2023, which would reflect a credible 2.1% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to step up 11% to S$0.15. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of S$15.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of S$0.15 in 2023. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.


The analysts reconfirmed their price target of S$3.19, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Singapore Telecommunications at S$4.40 per share, while the most bearish prices it at S$2.72. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Singapore Telecommunications' past performance and to peers in the same industry. For example, we noticed that Singapore Telecommunications' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 4.3% growth to the end of 2023 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 3.2% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.6% per year. So it looks like Singapore Telecommunications is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.


The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.


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