For a start, I am a Tesla shareholder. First i agree with the analysis on cash flow, capabilities vis-a-vis competitors and supply chain stability.

However, no company can escape the effects of the macro economy. Years of QE and printing of money has weakened the US economy to the brink of a dangerous edge. That is why FED have no choice on their hand but to keep increasing intereat rates in the near future. 

This equates to hitting consumer pockets hard and brutal! In such a scenario, if Tesla is selling an essential commodity such as rice, wheat, oil, there is nothing to worry too much.

However, Tesla is a luxury goods company and this does not bode well for the short term, the near future. 

Despite a strong cash flow, we must note that their giga factories are also giga cash furnaces in the absence of strong sales and demands. So i strongly think we can forget about shares buy-backs.

Musks will want to keep the cash to ride the rough economy ahead. 

Despite current share price hovering at its fair value, I am short term bearish and will not look to buy in till the $150 level.