SCP03
2022-11-22

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ For a start, I am a Tesla shareholder. First i agree with the analysis on cash flow, capabilities vis-a-vis competitors and supply chain stability.

However, no company can escape the effects of the macro economy. Years of QE and printing of money has weakened the US economy to the brink of a dangerous edge. That is why FED have no choice on their hand but to keep increasing interest rates in the near future.

This equates to hitting consumer pockets hard and brutal! In such a scenario, if Tesla is selling an essential commodity such as rice, wheat, oil, there is nothing to worry too much. However, Tesla is a luxury goods company and this does not bode well for the short term, the near future.

Despite a strong cash flow, we must note that their giga factories are also giga cash furnaces in the absence of strong sales and demands. So i strongly think we can forget about shares buy-backs.

Musks will want to keep the cash to ride the rough economy ahead. Despite current share price hovering at its fair value, I am short term bearish and will not look to buy in till the $150 level.

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Comments

  • Sandyboy
    2022-11-24
    Sandyboy
    Tesla is more than about just cars. There are several other plays which can make them market leaders if spun off. They can lead in supercharing electric cars, produce batteries for others etc. so they have many moats not one.
    • SCP03: 
      i agree. but short term does not look too favourable.
  • DonnaMay
    2022-11-25
    DonnaMay
    Don't worry, there's not much room for interest rates to rise.
    • SCP03: 
      We'll see, I think we still have some way to go...we're looking at decades of QE that Fed has on their hands...not just the covid era one..
  • ElvisMarner
    2022-11-25
    ElvisMarner
    MUSK should not have bought Twitter, he should have focused on TSLA.
    • SCP03: 
      well, he has the means and the brains. so we'll see
  • MortimerDodd
    2022-11-25
    MortimerDodd
    Cash flow is my biggest concern.
    • SCP03: 
      yes! it looks good for now... but if demands falls due to recession, those giga factories will becime giga cash furnaces. That is why I think its too early to rejoice.
  • popegg
    2022-11-22
    popegg
    May drops till 150 soon
    • SCP03: 
      yes i think so too
  • Maria_yy
    2022-11-25
    Maria_yy
    The macroeconomic impact on tsla will be significant.
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