TSM - weather forecast of chip industry

Lavender00
2022-10-26

Chip industry is facing some headwinds now. Semiconductors industry is in its cyclicality. AMD released preliminary Q3 revenue of approximately $5.6 billion, lower than prior outlook of $6.7 billion plus or minus $200 million, primarily due to weaker Client segment revenue (a weaker than expected PC market and significant inventory correction actions across the PC supply chain). The preliminary result guide for only 29% y/y growth for Q3, previous expected revenue growth is 55% y/y. NVDA during its Q2 result released, its Q2 revenue was $6.7billion, guide for Q3 was $5.9billion. Texas Instruments also experienced the weakness in personal electronics and expanding weakness across industrial, with increase order cancellations.

TSM$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$‌ as the leading foundry which produce chip for AMD and NVDA and many other chip companies was reporting 11.4% US dollar of revenue increment for Q3 2022. Third quarter revenue was USD 20.225 billion. However, they expect fourth quarter revenue to be between USD 19.9 billion and USD 20.7 billion, which represents a 0.4% sequential increase at the midpoint. The fourth quarter gross margin is expected to be flattish due to a lower capacity utilization rate.

TSM management said they continue to observe softness in consumer end market segments (smartphone, PCs and customers’ product) which would lead to lower N7 and N6 capacity utilisation. However, they believe this is more of a cyclical issue rather than structural. They believe the the demand will pick up in second half of 2023. They further tightening this year’s capital spending, partly due to capacity optimisation and partly due to continued tool delivery challenges.

TSM’s N3 is on track for volume production later this quarter with good yield. N2 is progressing so far, so good, and going to have a mass production introduced in 2025. No doubt TSMC technology and manufacturing capability is the top in the industry and forming a wide moat.

No specific information has been given regarding how US sanction on China will affect TSM. We might get some cues when its customer like AMD and NVDA is reporting their financial result. 

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • JC888
    2022-10-29
    JC888
    Semicon shares are known to be cyclical in nature no? If so is current lull unexpected?
  • Lao Tzu Ang
    2022-10-26
    Lao Tzu Ang
    Semi is facing a slowdown
  • Jiaaaaaa
    2022-10-27
    Jiaaaaaa
    k
  • Icekk
    2022-10-27
    Icekk
  • SuChing
    2022-10-27
    SuChing
    ok
  • MerLina
    2022-10-27
    MerLina
    Ok
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