Nvidia reported horrible Q2 numbers and provided disappointing guidance for the next quarter.
However, with cryptocurrency mining GPU demand in deep decline, Nvidia's problems could last longer than a few quarters.
Nvidia's valuation is still high, and earnings estimates should see more downward revisions.
I'm comfortable about revisiting this stock in the $100-120 range, but for now, Nvidia is a sell.
NVIDIA Corporation's (NASDAQ:NVDA) market cap reached an absurd high of more than $800 billion during the tech-top in November 2021. During this bubble phase, Nvidia's stock hit an all-time high of around $350, trading at more than 100 times TTM non-GAAP EPS (approximately 40 times TTM sales). Then, the Fed pricked the ultra-high multiple bubble, and many stocks, including Nvidia, crashed.
I warned about the "Epic Drop" in my late-November article, and one of my prime examples of the coming crash was Nvidia. However, despite being one of the most shockingly overvalued stocks of its time, Nvidia's problems run much deeper than the typical temporary overvalued company.
Nvidia reported earnings in line with its preannounced figures but well below prior guidance and analysts' estimates. Moreover, the company's guidance was disappointing. Nvidia is not only suffering from overvaluation problems and a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. The company has entered a severe decline phase, and the market is probably underestimating how serious the situation is for Nvidia.
The company faces several challenging headwinds to its top line, and its bottom line may continue deteriorating in the coming quarters. Therefore, we will probably see earnings estimates and EPS decrease more than anticipated. Meanwhile, the stock should attempt to find a base, but a reasonable entry price may be around $100-120.
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