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2020-10-02

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President of the Cleveland Fed: U.S. economic situation and monetary policy outlook

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17:42","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"President of the Cleveland Fed: U.S. economic situation and monetary policy outlook","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2072397118","media":"新浪财经-自媒体综合","summary":"来源：肖立晟宏观经济分析导读：本文作者Loretta J． Mester，是克利夫兰联储主席。本文是2020年9月NABE基金会经济评估研讨会网络会议作者的演讲稿。Mester认为，虽然美国已经采取有","content":"<p>Source: Xiao Lisheng Macroeconomic Analysis</p><p>Introduction: The author of this article, Loretta J. Mester, is the president of the Cleveland Fed. This article is a transcript of a speech by the author of the NABE Foundation Economic Assessment Workshop Network Conference in September 2020. Mester believes that although the United States has adopted effective fiscal and monetary policies, the policy support can be stronger and last for a longer time. In order to achieve the dual goals of restoring the highest employment rate and achieving price stability, although the Federal Reserve will still adhere to the statutory inflation rate target of 2%, under this unprecedented impact, in order to achieve the statutory inflation target, the Federal Reserve must improve inflation expectations. Therefore, the Federal Reserve may formulate policies to try to moderately increase the inflation rate above 2% over a period of time; At the same time, the newly revised strategic statement acknowledges that the highest employment rate index deviates from the actual situation in the evaluation. In the future, without inflationary pressure or financial stability risk, the high employment rate will no longer be a problem, and monetary policy will not respond to this. Compiled as follows: Thank you to Jack Kleinhenz for inviting me to the NABE Foundation's Economic Assessment Seminar 2020. The last time I spoke was at the NABE conference in February, just six months later, but it seems like a lifetime has passed. Many changes have occurred since, including the current economic conditions, as well as the outlook for economic and monetary policy. To its credit, NABE has kept vital procedures running throughout the pandemic. In exceptional circumstances, this is a sign of perseverance and resilience, and many families, businesses, and organizations have also demonstrated such traits in the past few months. This resilience is the background of the U.S. economy, and it is particularly important as our economy moves towards a sustainable recovery. Next, I'll brief you on the economic outlook and monetary policy, and talk about the changes to FOMC policy announced last week, followed by a question and answer session. I express my personal opinion only and do not represent the views of my colleagues at the Federal Reserve or the Federal Open Market Committee.</p><p><b>1. Economic situation in the United States</b></p><p>When considering the economic impact of the pandemic, I find it helpful to think in stages. The shutdown phase began in March, when we adopted aggressive social isolation measures to limit the spread of the virus and buy some time for the healthcare system to admit patients, study the virus in depth and develop tests and treatment options. The shutdown of non-essential activities immediately had a serious impact on the economy.</p><p>The reopening phase began in May, when the numbers compiled by public health departments began to improve, and many parts of the country began to relax restrictions on staying at home. Economic activity and employment in many sectors began to improve in May and June as businesses began to reopen and consumers returned to spending. Industries such as travel, entertainment and hospitality have even improved, but these industries may remain weak for some time to come. Early in the reopening, our contacts in the Fourth Federal Reserve District, which includes parts of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky and West Virginia, told us that the economic recovery was more than they expected. And some official statistics have exceeded economists' expectations. The housing market is exceptionally strong, with sales levels of both new and existing homes now returning to pre-pandemic levels, if not above. Consumption of durable goods, including cars, is well above pre-pandemic levels.</p><p>That's all good news. But the resumption of economic activity appears fragile. The latest high-frequency data and information reflected by contacts in various regions show that the economic recovery in May and June has slowed down in the past few months. This slowdown in economic recovery occurred as the number of confirmed cases began to rise again in some parts of the United States in late June, leading some regions to suspend reopening plans or restrict economic activities. Even in areas where the government has not halted reopening plans, people are reducing their outings due to safety concerns, and the increase in confirmed cases appears to have a dampening effect on economic recovery. The latest data shows that although the number of newly diagnosed cases is still increasing, the growth rate is already decreasing. After that, I will see if the economic recovery picks up again.</p><p>This is an evaluation session, and I should show you charts to illustrate some of the data. Economists tend to consider growth rates when assessing economies, but in this unprecedented economic shutdown followed by reopening, looking at the level of economic activity is more helpful to gauge the economic outlook than looking at growth rates before the pandemic.</p><p><b>First,</b>Official GDP figures clearly show a sharp decline in activity related to shutdowns. Economic activity peaked in February, after which the U.S. economy entered recession. Real GDP (at an annualized rate) fell by 5% in the first quarter and 32% in the second quarter, a record reduction, including a 26% decline in fixed investment of non-residential enterprises and a 34% decline in personal consumption.<b>Real GDP in the second quarter fell to 2014 levels, which means we have lost six years of output growth.</b></p><p>In some areas, such as services, it will take longer for the economy to recover than others, and recovery and start-up depend on how well the virus is under control. But I expect the economy to bottom out in the second quarter, growth will rebound strongly in the third quarter, and growth will continue to be positive in the fourth quarter, but output levels will still end the year slightly below what they were at the end of last year.</p><p><b>Second,</b>While supply disruptions have led to higher prices for certain goods and services, declining economic activity in the first half of the year put downward pressure on inflation when the economy shut down. There has been some recovery in inflation during the reopening phase, but I expect it to remain below the long-term target of 2% for some time.</p><p><b>Third,</b>Closures and reopenings have had a clear impact on the labour market. In April, the number of unemployed people and job losses increased unprecedented, especially in those industries where people can't work from home. Many workers reported that they expected the job loss to be temporary, and as the economy reopened, we saw a rapid decline in unemployment as people on temporary furloughs began to be rehired. This is good news. However, we also hope that these figures are preferably accurate. The unemployment rate in July was 10.2%, still slightly above its post-Depression peak.<b>There are still 16 million unemployed workers in the United States, compared with 6 million in February. This means that about one in 16 Americans over the age of 16 is unemployed, close to post-Depression levels.</b>Furthermore, the deterioration in the labor market has not been equal across the population, with African-Americans, Hispanics and Asians seeing higher net unemployment gains than whites since February.</p><p><b>Fourth,</b>Salary employment data illustrates a similar picture. In just two months, in March and April, 22 million jobs were lost, and only so many of all new jobs added in the past decade.<b>More than three-quarters of these losses are in industries that earn less than average wages.</b>The good news is that 9 million new jobs have been added in just three months recently. Of course, we haven't added half the number of jobs we've lost since the pandemic, and the current level of employment is roughly equivalent to the level of 2014. So, like economic output, we lost about 6 years of new jobs.</p><p>Given that the pandemic and economic shutdowns are unprecedented, many economists, including the Federal Reserve, have been looking for higher-frequency indicators to track developments. The Cleveland Fed surveys our contacts for information more frequently, and we surveyed consumers nationwide to assess how Novel Coronavirus affects consumer attitudes and economic activity.<b>These higher-frequency indicators clearly indicate the bottoming out of the economy brought about by the reopening of the economy, but at the same time suggest that the level of economic activity correlates with data that portrays the spread of the virus.</b></p><p><b>Fifth,</b>When confirmed cases began to rise again in late June, people's mobility, or the percentage of non-home quarantine time and the data on dining in restaurants, began to decline again compared to the data in May, when they just reopened business. Our contacts in the restaurant industry have also confirmed that the recovery in business activity is slowing and that some are beginning to wonder whether restaurants will survive long term, especially those unable to transition to delivering takeout.</p><p><b>Sixth:</b>As the pandemic subsides, businesses have begun to change their plans. Early on, many contacts told us that they did not intend to permanently reduce their workforce. But, they eventually had to let some workers leave. In our most recent survey, more than half of the companies told us they had made significant changes to their business plans, including hiring plans and capital spending plans, given the increase in confirmed cases since late June.</p><p>Small businesses have been particularly hard hit by the virus, and the smallest of them are particularly true. Data from Homebase shows that the recovery in small business hiring that began in April has stalled, with about 20% fewer jobs paid by hourly wages since January. As researchers at the New York Fed have documented, Black-owned businesses have been hit particularly hard by the pandemic, twice as likely as other companies to close during the pandemic. The researchers pointed to a number of factors, including the firms' weaker financial strength, weaker relationships with banks and funding gaps that existed before the pandemic, with less access to federal relief funds.</p><p><b>Seventh,</b>Cleveland Fed survey data shows that businesses and consumers are thinking differently about the pandemic now than they did at the beginning of the pandemic. In the survey conducted in late June, about half of contacts said it would take at least a year for their company's business to return to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p>A survey by the Cleveland Fed's national daily newspaper shows that consumers are now more willing to engage in certain economic activities than they were at the beginning of the epidemic, but consumers also believe that,<b>The pandemic will last much longer than they originally thought. In March, more than 80% of respondents believed the pandemic would last a year or less. At the beginning of August, only half of the people maintained their original view, while the other half believed that the epidemic would last for two years or more.</b></p><p><b>2. U.S. Federal Government and Federal Reserve Policies</b></p><p>We have seen a link between the increase in confirmed cases and the weakening of economic activity, and this link underlines the fact that the economic recovery depends on how well the epidemic is controlled. Of course, we can control the spread of the epidemic through concrete actions. Tangible actions include expanding testing for the public and private sectors, contact tracing, investing in researching treatment options and developing vaccines, and our own individual actions to wear masks over our noses and mouths, avoid social gatherings, move at a safe distance, and wash hands frequently.</p><p>Assuming we get the virus under control and people feel safe enough and businesses are confident enough to re-engage in economic activity, the economy will transition from a reopening phase to a more sustained recovery phase. This recovery may take a while, as this pandemic has sent a huge shock to the economy.</p><p>Both the federal government and the Federal Reserve took swift and significant action to provide relief to households and businesses during the shutdown. Fiscal actions include relief to individuals, certain businesses hardest hit by the pandemic, and states and municipalities; Expanding unemployment benefits; And loans to small businesses, which are used to distribute payroll by businesses.</p><p>The Federal Reserve has taken action to ensure that financial markets have enough liquidity to continue functioning normally and that credit can continue to flow to households and businesses, thereby avoiding financial turmoil caused by the pandemic. These actions include buying Treasury Bond and mortgage-backed securities in response to market pressures; Ensuring that other countries' central banks have access to dollars; Establish a variety of so-called emergency facilities under the auspices of the U.S. Department of the Treasury to back other major credit markets and support the flow of credit to households, businesses of all sizes, and regional and local governments; Temporarily relax some regulatory requirements for banks to give them greater lending capacity; Since March, it has maintained its Federal Funds rate target between 0% and 10.25%.</p><p>By the end of this year, I expect the economic aggregate to still be lower than it was at the end of last year. The unemployment rate will remain in single digits, but it is a relatively high single digits; And inflation will be well below our long-term target of 2%. Of course, the uncertainty of this forecast is very high: we are in an unprecedented situation, the outcome of which depends on actions in public health. The economic outlook also depends on appropriate economic policies. I think we need fiscal policy and monetary policy support to withstand the long-term damage to the economy caused by the epidemic and economic shutdown to support a broader and lasting recovery of the economy. Now several key fiscal policies supporting the economy are about to expire. In today's economic conditions, we clearly need further financial support to support households, small businesses, and state and local governments who are bearing the brunt of the pandemic until the economy recovers sustainably.</p><p>For the Fed's part, the Federal Open Market Committee said that we want to maintain the Fed funds' interest rate target at 0% to 0.25% until we believe our economy can weather the shock and is on track to meet our maximum employment rate and price level stability targets. Our asset purchases will continue to support market operations and accommodative monetary policy. Furthermore, clear communication about our policies can also make any monetary policy measures we take more effective. Last week, the FOMC released a revised statement outlining our long-term goals and monetary policy strategy, which will help clarify and strengthen the FOMC's policy intent. I will summarize some of the highlights from this revised statement to introduce you to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent remarks to discuss the statement more fully.</p><p><b>III. Revised statement on long-term objectives and monetary policy strategy</b></p><p>Over the past year and a half, the Federal Open Market Committee has been reviewing our framework-strategy, policy tools and communication-to formulate monetary policy to achieve our stated goals of promoting maximum employment and maintaining price stability and moderate long-term interest rates. Combining our experience during and after the Great Depression, economic theory, empirical analysis, and the consultation results of a series of Federal Reserve hearings held nationwide that included economists, practicing analysts, and the public, we inform this review.</p><p>The main conclusions of this review have been summarized in the strategy statement, which is based on the first strategy we released in 2012, but the economic environment has changed since then. An important change is that interest rates at home and abroad continue to decline, accompanied by a slowdown in sustainable growth and price instability. This decline reflects a number of factors, including an aging population, changes in risk appetite, and slowing total factor productivity growth. This means that the level of Federal Funds rate is lower now than in the past, and this rate is associated with the highest employment rate and price stability. This means that in the economic downturn, the current Federal Funds rate is more likely to be restricted by the effective lower limit. In other words, after a downturn, there will be less policy space for the FOMC's traditional policy tools in order to support the economy. A situation where households, businesses and financial markets all understand this restriction will create downside sentiment for inflation and inflation expectations and increase downside risks to our two policy objectives.</p><p>Another change in the economic environment is related to the dynamics of inflation. Compared with the past, the link between resource shortages and real inflation has become weaker and weaker. Now, inflation expectations play a greater role. This makes it particularly important to keep inflation expectations at a level consistent with our long-term 2% inflation target, and inflation below our target will lead to less policy space in a low interest rate environment.</p><p>With regard to the revised strategy statement, the first thing to note is that the FOMC reiterated that long-term inflation of 2% is our statutory target. But, our strategy statement is now much more explicit about how we will meet this inflation target. That is, after a period of sustained inflation below 2%, we are likely to strive for a period of time to keep inflation moderately above 2%. Doing so will help to fix inflation expectations (the main determinant of actuarial inflation) at a level consistent with the 2% inflation rate. As we have been trying to effectively deliver the message that 2% should not be interpreted as a cap, our narrative will become even stronger. We now know clearly that after inflation is consistently below 2%, we will not only tolerate occasional shocks to push inflation above 2%, but we may set policies that will try to modestly increase inflation above 2% for a period of time.</p><p>I have spoken many times about the fact that policy communication should acknowledge uncertainty. The changes made in the Strategy Statement regarding our employment targets recognize the uncertainty in assessing the maximum employment rate. Indeed, the Federal Open Market Committee believes that the level of our long-term unemployment rate has declined significantly over time, and that in the absence of inflation, employment growth during the expansion period has ultimately greatly exceeded previous experience. We have spent some time looking at these structural changes in the economy. This kind of research, coupled with references to the \"deviation\" of employment rates from maximum employment rates in previous strategy statements, has been misinterpreted by some as the FOMC suggesting that it sometimes takes intentional policy actions to reduce employment in ways that disregard inflation targeting. That's not the case. The ability of a strong labor market to promote economic inclusion for all Americans is obvious, and we must acknowledge that the actual maximum employment rate we assess is not entirely precise.<b>The new announcement clarifies that in the absence of inflationary pressures or risks to financial stability, high employment rates are no longer an issue and monetary policy will not respond to it.</b></p><p>I firmly believe that clear policy communication is an important part of developing effective monetary policy. The Federal Open Market Committee promised to make every effort to support sustainable economic recovery, restore the highest employment rate and maintain the price stability of public services. This strategic statement, which has been reviewed and revised by the framework, comes at the right time.</p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>President of the Cleveland Fed: U.S. economic situation and monetary policy outlook</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPresident of the Cleveland Fed: U.S. economic situation and monetary policy outlook\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经-自媒体综合</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-10-02 17:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Source: Xiao Lisheng Macroeconomic Analysis</p><p>Introduction: The author of this article, Loretta J. Mester, is the president of the Cleveland Fed. This article is a transcript of a speech by the author of the NABE Foundation Economic Assessment Workshop Network Conference in September 2020. Mester believes that although the United States has adopted effective fiscal and monetary policies, the policy support can be stronger and last for a longer time. In order to achieve the dual goals of restoring the highest employment rate and achieving price stability, although the Federal Reserve will still adhere to the statutory inflation rate target of 2%, under this unprecedented impact, in order to achieve the statutory inflation target, the Federal Reserve must improve inflation expectations. Therefore, the Federal Reserve may formulate policies to try to moderately increase the inflation rate above 2% over a period of time; At the same time, the newly revised strategic statement acknowledges that the highest employment rate index deviates from the actual situation in the evaluation. In the future, without inflationary pressure or financial stability risk, the high employment rate will no longer be a problem, and monetary policy will not respond to this. Compiled as follows: Thank you to Jack Kleinhenz for inviting me to the NABE Foundation's Economic Assessment Seminar 2020. The last time I spoke was at the NABE conference in February, just six months later, but it seems like a lifetime has passed. Many changes have occurred since, including the current economic conditions, as well as the outlook for economic and monetary policy. To its credit, NABE has kept vital procedures running throughout the pandemic. In exceptional circumstances, this is a sign of perseverance and resilience, and many families, businesses, and organizations have also demonstrated such traits in the past few months. This resilience is the background of the U.S. economy, and it is particularly important as our economy moves towards a sustainable recovery. Next, I'll brief you on the economic outlook and monetary policy, and talk about the changes to FOMC policy announced last week, followed by a question and answer session. I express my personal opinion only and do not represent the views of my colleagues at the Federal Reserve or the Federal Open Market Committee.</p><p><b>1. Economic situation in the United States</b></p><p>When considering the economic impact of the pandemic, I find it helpful to think in stages. The shutdown phase began in March, when we adopted aggressive social isolation measures to limit the spread of the virus and buy some time for the healthcare system to admit patients, study the virus in depth and develop tests and treatment options. The shutdown of non-essential activities immediately had a serious impact on the economy.</p><p>The reopening phase began in May, when the numbers compiled by public health departments began to improve, and many parts of the country began to relax restrictions on staying at home. Economic activity and employment in many sectors began to improve in May and June as businesses began to reopen and consumers returned to spending. Industries such as travel, entertainment and hospitality have even improved, but these industries may remain weak for some time to come. Early in the reopening, our contacts in the Fourth Federal Reserve District, which includes parts of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky and West Virginia, told us that the economic recovery was more than they expected. And some official statistics have exceeded economists' expectations. The housing market is exceptionally strong, with sales levels of both new and existing homes now returning to pre-pandemic levels, if not above. Consumption of durable goods, including cars, is well above pre-pandemic levels.</p><p>That's all good news. But the resumption of economic activity appears fragile. The latest high-frequency data and information reflected by contacts in various regions show that the economic recovery in May and June has slowed down in the past few months. This slowdown in economic recovery occurred as the number of confirmed cases began to rise again in some parts of the United States in late June, leading some regions to suspend reopening plans or restrict economic activities. Even in areas where the government has not halted reopening plans, people are reducing their outings due to safety concerns, and the increase in confirmed cases appears to have a dampening effect on economic recovery. The latest data shows that although the number of newly diagnosed cases is still increasing, the growth rate is already decreasing. After that, I will see if the economic recovery picks up again.</p><p>This is an evaluation session, and I should show you charts to illustrate some of the data. Economists tend to consider growth rates when assessing economies, but in this unprecedented economic shutdown followed by reopening, looking at the level of economic activity is more helpful to gauge the economic outlook than looking at growth rates before the pandemic.</p><p><b>First,</b>Official GDP figures clearly show a sharp decline in activity related to shutdowns. Economic activity peaked in February, after which the U.S. economy entered recession. Real GDP (at an annualized rate) fell by 5% in the first quarter and 32% in the second quarter, a record reduction, including a 26% decline in fixed investment of non-residential enterprises and a 34% decline in personal consumption.<b>Real GDP in the second quarter fell to 2014 levels, which means we have lost six years of output growth.</b></p><p>In some areas, such as services, it will take longer for the economy to recover than others, and recovery and start-up depend on how well the virus is under control. But I expect the economy to bottom out in the second quarter, growth will rebound strongly in the third quarter, and growth will continue to be positive in the fourth quarter, but output levels will still end the year slightly below what they were at the end of last year.</p><p><b>Second,</b>While supply disruptions have led to higher prices for certain goods and services, declining economic activity in the first half of the year put downward pressure on inflation when the economy shut down. There has been some recovery in inflation during the reopening phase, but I expect it to remain below the long-term target of 2% for some time.</p><p><b>Third,</b>Closures and reopenings have had a clear impact on the labour market. In April, the number of unemployed people and job losses increased unprecedented, especially in those industries where people can't work from home. Many workers reported that they expected the job loss to be temporary, and as the economy reopened, we saw a rapid decline in unemployment as people on temporary furloughs began to be rehired. This is good news. However, we also hope that these figures are preferably accurate. The unemployment rate in July was 10.2%, still slightly above its post-Depression peak.<b>There are still 16 million unemployed workers in the United States, compared with 6 million in February. This means that about one in 16 Americans over the age of 16 is unemployed, close to post-Depression levels.</b>Furthermore, the deterioration in the labor market has not been equal across the population, with African-Americans, Hispanics and Asians seeing higher net unemployment gains than whites since February.</p><p><b>Fourth,</b>Salary employment data illustrates a similar picture. In just two months, in March and April, 22 million jobs were lost, and only so many of all new jobs added in the past decade.<b>More than three-quarters of these losses are in industries that earn less than average wages.</b>The good news is that 9 million new jobs have been added in just three months recently. Of course, we haven't added half the number of jobs we've lost since the pandemic, and the current level of employment is roughly equivalent to the level of 2014. So, like economic output, we lost about 6 years of new jobs.</p><p>Given that the pandemic and economic shutdowns are unprecedented, many economists, including the Federal Reserve, have been looking for higher-frequency indicators to track developments. The Cleveland Fed surveys our contacts for information more frequently, and we surveyed consumers nationwide to assess how Novel Coronavirus affects consumer attitudes and economic activity.<b>These higher-frequency indicators clearly indicate the bottoming out of the economy brought about by the reopening of the economy, but at the same time suggest that the level of economic activity correlates with data that portrays the spread of the virus.</b></p><p><b>Fifth,</b>When confirmed cases began to rise again in late June, people's mobility, or the percentage of non-home quarantine time and the data on dining in restaurants, began to decline again compared to the data in May, when they just reopened business. Our contacts in the restaurant industry have also confirmed that the recovery in business activity is slowing and that some are beginning to wonder whether restaurants will survive long term, especially those unable to transition to delivering takeout.</p><p><b>Sixth:</b>As the pandemic subsides, businesses have begun to change their plans. Early on, many contacts told us that they did not intend to permanently reduce their workforce. But, they eventually had to let some workers leave. In our most recent survey, more than half of the companies told us they had made significant changes to their business plans, including hiring plans and capital spending plans, given the increase in confirmed cases since late June.</p><p>Small businesses have been particularly hard hit by the virus, and the smallest of them are particularly true. Data from Homebase shows that the recovery in small business hiring that began in April has stalled, with about 20% fewer jobs paid by hourly wages since January. As researchers at the New York Fed have documented, Black-owned businesses have been hit particularly hard by the pandemic, twice as likely as other companies to close during the pandemic. The researchers pointed to a number of factors, including the firms' weaker financial strength, weaker relationships with banks and funding gaps that existed before the pandemic, with less access to federal relief funds.</p><p><b>Seventh,</b>Cleveland Fed survey data shows that businesses and consumers are thinking differently about the pandemic now than they did at the beginning of the pandemic. In the survey conducted in late June, about half of contacts said it would take at least a year for their company's business to return to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p>A survey by the Cleveland Fed's national daily newspaper shows that consumers are now more willing to engage in certain economic activities than they were at the beginning of the epidemic, but consumers also believe that,<b>The pandemic will last much longer than they originally thought. In March, more than 80% of respondents believed the pandemic would last a year or less. At the beginning of August, only half of the people maintained their original view, while the other half believed that the epidemic would last for two years or more.</b></p><p><b>2. U.S. Federal Government and Federal Reserve Policies</b></p><p>We have seen a link between the increase in confirmed cases and the weakening of economic activity, and this link underlines the fact that the economic recovery depends on how well the epidemic is controlled. Of course, we can control the spread of the epidemic through concrete actions. Tangible actions include expanding testing for the public and private sectors, contact tracing, investing in researching treatment options and developing vaccines, and our own individual actions to wear masks over our noses and mouths, avoid social gatherings, move at a safe distance, and wash hands frequently.</p><p>Assuming we get the virus under control and people feel safe enough and businesses are confident enough to re-engage in economic activity, the economy will transition from a reopening phase to a more sustained recovery phase. This recovery may take a while, as this pandemic has sent a huge shock to the economy.</p><p>Both the federal government and the Federal Reserve took swift and significant action to provide relief to households and businesses during the shutdown. Fiscal actions include relief to individuals, certain businesses hardest hit by the pandemic, and states and municipalities; Expanding unemployment benefits; And loans to small businesses, which are used to distribute payroll by businesses.</p><p>The Federal Reserve has taken action to ensure that financial markets have enough liquidity to continue functioning normally and that credit can continue to flow to households and businesses, thereby avoiding financial turmoil caused by the pandemic. These actions include buying Treasury Bond and mortgage-backed securities in response to market pressures; Ensuring that other countries' central banks have access to dollars; Establish a variety of so-called emergency facilities under the auspices of the U.S. Department of the Treasury to back other major credit markets and support the flow of credit to households, businesses of all sizes, and regional and local governments; Temporarily relax some regulatory requirements for banks to give them greater lending capacity; Since March, it has maintained its Federal Funds rate target between 0% and 10.25%.</p><p>By the end of this year, I expect the economic aggregate to still be lower than it was at the end of last year. The unemployment rate will remain in single digits, but it is a relatively high single digits; And inflation will be well below our long-term target of 2%. Of course, the uncertainty of this forecast is very high: we are in an unprecedented situation, the outcome of which depends on actions in public health. The economic outlook also depends on appropriate economic policies. I think we need fiscal policy and monetary policy support to withstand the long-term damage to the economy caused by the epidemic and economic shutdown to support a broader and lasting recovery of the economy. Now several key fiscal policies supporting the economy are about to expire. In today's economic conditions, we clearly need further financial support to support households, small businesses, and state and local governments who are bearing the brunt of the pandemic until the economy recovers sustainably.</p><p>For the Fed's part, the Federal Open Market Committee said that we want to maintain the Fed funds' interest rate target at 0% to 0.25% until we believe our economy can weather the shock and is on track to meet our maximum employment rate and price level stability targets. Our asset purchases will continue to support market operations and accommodative monetary policy. Furthermore, clear communication about our policies can also make any monetary policy measures we take more effective. Last week, the FOMC released a revised statement outlining our long-term goals and monetary policy strategy, which will help clarify and strengthen the FOMC's policy intent. I will summarize some of the highlights from this revised statement to introduce you to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent remarks to discuss the statement more fully.</p><p><b>III. Revised statement on long-term objectives and monetary policy strategy</b></p><p>Over the past year and a half, the Federal Open Market Committee has been reviewing our framework-strategy, policy tools and communication-to formulate monetary policy to achieve our stated goals of promoting maximum employment and maintaining price stability and moderate long-term interest rates. Combining our experience during and after the Great Depression, economic theory, empirical analysis, and the consultation results of a series of Federal Reserve hearings held nationwide that included economists, practicing analysts, and the public, we inform this review.</p><p>The main conclusions of this review have been summarized in the strategy statement, which is based on the first strategy we released in 2012, but the economic environment has changed since then. An important change is that interest rates at home and abroad continue to decline, accompanied by a slowdown in sustainable growth and price instability. This decline reflects a number of factors, including an aging population, changes in risk appetite, and slowing total factor productivity growth. This means that the level of Federal Funds rate is lower now than in the past, and this rate is associated with the highest employment rate and price stability. This means that in the economic downturn, the current Federal Funds rate is more likely to be restricted by the effective lower limit. In other words, after a downturn, there will be less policy space for the FOMC's traditional policy tools in order to support the economy. A situation where households, businesses and financial markets all understand this restriction will create downside sentiment for inflation and inflation expectations and increase downside risks to our two policy objectives.</p><p>Another change in the economic environment is related to the dynamics of inflation. Compared with the past, the link between resource shortages and real inflation has become weaker and weaker. Now, inflation expectations play a greater role. This makes it particularly important to keep inflation expectations at a level consistent with our long-term 2% inflation target, and inflation below our target will lead to less policy space in a low interest rate environment.</p><p>With regard to the revised strategy statement, the first thing to note is that the FOMC reiterated that long-term inflation of 2% is our statutory target. But, our strategy statement is now much more explicit about how we will meet this inflation target. That is, after a period of sustained inflation below 2%, we are likely to strive for a period of time to keep inflation moderately above 2%. Doing so will help to fix inflation expectations (the main determinant of actuarial inflation) at a level consistent with the 2% inflation rate. As we have been trying to effectively deliver the message that 2% should not be interpreted as a cap, our narrative will become even stronger. We now know clearly that after inflation is consistently below 2%, we will not only tolerate occasional shocks to push inflation above 2%, but we may set policies that will try to modestly increase inflation above 2% for a period of time.</p><p>I have spoken many times about the fact that policy communication should acknowledge uncertainty. The changes made in the Strategy Statement regarding our employment targets recognize the uncertainty in assessing the maximum employment rate. Indeed, the Federal Open Market Committee believes that the level of our long-term unemployment rate has declined significantly over time, and that in the absence of inflation, employment growth during the expansion period has ultimately greatly exceeded previous experience. We have spent some time looking at these structural changes in the economy. This kind of research, coupled with references to the \"deviation\" of employment rates from maximum employment rates in previous strategy statements, has been misinterpreted by some as the FOMC suggesting that it sometimes takes intentional policy actions to reduce employment in ways that disregard inflation targeting. That's not the case. The ability of a strong labor market to promote economic inclusion for all Americans is obvious, and we must acknowledge that the actual maximum employment rate we assess is not entirely precise.<b>The new announcement clarifies that in the absence of inflationary pressures or risks to financial stability, high employment rates are no longer an issue and monetary policy will not respond to it.</b></p><p>I firmly believe that clear policy communication is an important part of developing effective monetary policy. The Federal Open Market Committee promised to make every effort to support sustainable economic recovery, restore the highest employment rate and maintain the price stability of public services. This strategic statement, which has been reviewed and revised by the framework, comes at the right time.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/2020-10-02/doc-iivhvpwz0057234.shtml\">新浪财经-自媒体综合</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/2020-10-02/doc-iivhvpwz0057234.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2072397118","content_text":"来源：肖立晟宏观经济分析导读：本文作者Loretta J． Mester，是克利夫兰联储主席。本文是2020年9月NABE基金会经济评估研讨会网络会议作者的演讲稿。Mester认为，虽然美国已经采取有效的财政政策和货币政策，但政策的支持力度可以更大，可以延续更长的时间。为了达成恢复最高就业率和实现价格稳定的双重目标，尽管美联储仍然会坚持2%的法定通货膨胀率目标，但在这种前所未有的冲击下，想要达到法定通胀目标，美联储必须改善通货膨胀预期，因此美联储可能会制定政策，力图在一段时间内将通货膨胀率适度地提高到2%以上；同时新修订的战略声明承认最高就业率指标在评估时与实际情况存在一定偏离，今后在没有通货膨胀压力或金融稳定风险的情况下，高就业率不再是问题，货币政策也不会对此做出反应。编译如下：感谢Jack Kleinhenz邀请我参加NABE基金会的2020年经济评估研讨会。我上次发言是在2月的NABE 会议上，仅仅过去了六个月，但似乎已经过了一辈子。之后发生了许多变化，包括当前的经济状况，以及经济和货币政策的前景。值得赞扬的是，NABE 在整个大流行期间保持了重要程序的运转。在特殊情况下，这是毅力和韧性的体现，在过去的几个月中，许多家庭、企业和组织也展现了这样的特质。这种韧性是美国经济的底色，随着我们的经济迈向可持续复苏之路，这种韧性格外重要。接下来，我将向各位简要介绍经济前景和货币政策，并谈谈上周宣布的FOMC政策的变化，然后是提问环节。我仅表达个人观点，不代表美联储或联邦公开市场委员会的同事的观点。一、美国经济形势在考虑大流行的经济影响时，我发现分阶段思考是有帮助的。停产阶段始于3月，当时我们采取了积极的社交隔离措施，以限制病毒的传播，并为医疗保健系统争取了一定的时间，使得医疗系统可以收治病人、深入研究病毒并开发出测试办法和治疗方案。非必要活动的关闭立刻对经济产生了严重的影响。重新开放阶段于5月开始，公共卫生部门统计的各项数字开始改善，全国许多地区开始放宽居家隔离的限制。随着企业开始重新开放和消费者重新消费，5月和6月许多部门的经济活动和雇用情况开始改善。旅行，娱乐和酒店等行业甚至也有所改善，不过这些行业可能仍然会在未来一段时间内保持疲软。在重新开放初期，我们在俄亥俄州、宾夕法尼亚州、肯塔基州和西维吉尼亚州部分地区在内的第四联邦储备区的联系人告诉我们，经济复苏的情况超出了他们的预期。而且一些官方统计数据也超出了经济学家的预期。住房市场格外强劲，新住房和现有住房的销售水平现在都回到大流行之前，甚至超过之前。包括汽车在内的耐用品消费远高于大流行前水平。这都是好消息。但是经济活动的恢复似乎是脆弱的。最新的高频数据和各地区联系人的反映的信息表明，在过去的几个月中，5月和6月的经济回升速度有所放缓。由于6月下旬美国某些地区的确诊病例数再次开始上升，出现了这种经济恢复放缓，导致一些地区暂停重开计划或对经济活动进行限制。即使在政府没有叫停重新开放计划的地区，人们也出于安全考虑而减少外出，确诊病例的增加似乎也对经济恢复产生了抑制作用。最新的数据表明，新确诊的病例数虽然仍在增加，但增速已经在减小。之后我将观察经济恢复的速度是否再次加快。这是一次评估会议，我应该向各位展示图表来说明一些数据。经济学家在评估经济时往往会考虑增长率，但在这种前所未有的经济停摆又重新开放的情况下，与大流行之前观察增长率不同，观察经济活动的水平更有助于衡量经济前景。第一、官方的GDP数据清楚地显示了与停工有关的活动的急剧下降。经济活动在2月达到顶峰，之后美国经济进入衰退。第一季度实际GDP（折合年率）下降5%，第二季度实际GDP（折合年率）下降32%，减少量创历史新高，其中非住宅企业固定投资下降26%，个人消费下降34%。第二季度的实际GDP下降到2014年的水平，也就是说我们已经失去了六年的产出增长。在某些领域，如服务业，经济恢复所需要的时间将比其他领域要长，并且恢复和启动取决于病毒的控制情况。但我预计第二季度经济将触底，第三季度增长将强劲反弹，第四季度将继续保持正增长，但年底的产出水平仍将略低于去年年底的水平。第二、尽管供应中断已导致某些商品和服务的价格上涨，但当经济关闭时，上半年经济活动的下降给通货膨胀带来了下行压力。在重新开放阶段，通货膨胀率已出现一定程度的恢复，但我预计通货膨胀率将在一段时间内保持在2%这一长期目标以下。第三、关闭和重新开放对劳动力市场产生了明显的影响。4月，失业人数和岗位流失的数字空前增加，特别在那些人们无法在家工作的行业中。许多工人报告说，他们预计失业将是暂时的，并且随着经济的重新开放，随着临时休假的人们开始被重新雇用，我们看到了失业率迅速下降。这是个好消息。但是，我们也希望这些数字最好是准确的。7月份的失业率为10.2%，仍略高于大萧条过后的峰值。美国现在仍然有1600万名工人失业，在2月的时候，这个数字是600万。这意味着16岁以上的美国人中，大约16个人就有一个失业，接近大萧条后的水平。此外，劳动力市场的恶化情况在人群中并不平等，自二月份以来，非裔、西班牙裔和亚裔的失业率净增长高于白人。第四、 薪资就业数据说明了类似的情况。在3月和4月的短短两个月内，就流失了2200万个工作岗位，过去十年所有新增的就业岗位也只有这么多。在这些损失中，有四分之三以上属于收入低于平均工资的行业。好消息是，在最近的短短三个月内，有新增了900万个工作岗位。当然，我们新增的就业岗位还没有从大流行以来流失的就业岗位数量的一半，目前的就业水平大致相当于2014年的水平。因此，和经济产出一样，我们失去了大约6 年的新增就业岗位。鉴于大流行和经济停摆是前所未有的，包括美联储在内的许多经济学家一直在寻找更高频率的指标来追踪事态发展。克利夫兰联储会更频繁地向我们的联系人调查信息，并且我们在全国范围内对消费者进行了调查，以评估新冠病毒如何影响消费者的态度和经济活动。这些较高频率的指标清楚地表明了经济重新开放带来的经济触底回升，但同时也表明经济活动水平与描绘病毒传播情况的数据相关。第五、当确诊病例在6月下旬再次开始上升时，与刚刚重新开始营业的5月的数据相比，人们的流动性，或者说非居家隔离时间所占的百分比和到餐厅就餐的数据又开始下降。我们在餐饮业的联系人也证实，商业活动的复苏正在放缓，并且一些人开始怀疑餐厅能否长期生存，尤其是那些无法过渡到提供外卖的商家。第六： 随着疫情的消退，企业已开始改变其计划。早期，许多联系人告诉我们，他们不打算永久裁减其劳动力。但是，他们最终不得不让一些工人离开。在我们最近的调查中，超过一半的公司告诉我们，鉴于自6月下旬以来确诊病例的增加，他们对商业计划进行了重大的更改，包括招聘计划和资本支出计划。小型企业受到病毒的影响尤其严重，而规模最小的小型企业尤其如此。来自Homebase的数据显示，四月份开始的小型企业招聘复苏已经停滞，自一月以来，按时薪付费的岗位减少了约20%。正如纽约联储的研究人员所记录的那样，黑人拥有的企业在大流行中遭受的打击尤为严重，在大流行期间关闭的可能性是其他公司的两倍。研究人员指出了许多因素，包括这些公司的财务实力较弱，与银行的关系较弱以及大流行之前就存在的资金缺口，获得联邦救济基金的机会较小。第七、克利夫兰联储（Cleveland Fed）的调查数据表明，现在企业和消费者在疫情方面的想法与疫情刚开始时有所不同。在6月下旬进行的调查中，大约一半的联系人表示，他们公司的业务至少需要一年的时间才能恢复到大流行前的水平。克利夫兰联储的全国性日报的调查显示，消费者现在比疫情刚开始时更愿意进行一些特定的经济活动，但消费者们也认为，大流行的持续时间将比他们原来想象的要长很多。3月，超过80 %的受访者认为大流行会持续一年或更短的时间。在八月初，只有一半的人保持原先的看法，而另一半则认为这场疫情将持续两年甚至更长的时间。二、美国联邦政府与美联储政策我们已经看到，确诊病例的增加与经济活动减弱之间的联系，这种联系强调了这样一个事实：经济复苏的情况取决于疫情的控制情况。当然，我们可以通过切实行动控制疫情的传播。切实的行动包括对公共和私营部门扩大检测，接触者追踪，投资研究治疗方案和开发疫苗，以及我们自己的个人行动，即戴上口罩遮住我们的鼻子和嘴巴，避免社交聚会，在安全距离下活动，经常洗手。假设我们控制了该病毒，并且人们感到足够安全，企业有足够的信心重新参与经济活动，那么经济将从重新开放阶段过渡到更加持续的复苏阶段。这种复苏可能需要一段时间，因为这种大流行给经济带来了巨大冲击。联邦政府和美联储都采取了迅速而重大的行动，以在停工期间为家庭和企业提供救济。财政行动包括向个人、受大流行打击最严重的某些企业以及州和市提供救助；扩大失业救济金；以及向小企业贷款，这些贷款被用于企业发放工资。美联储采取了行动，以确保金融市场有足够的流动性以继续正常运转，并且确保信贷可以继续流向家庭和企业，从而避免大流行造成的金融动荡。这些行动包括购买国债和抵押贷款支持证券以应对市场压力；确保其他国家的央行可以获得美元；在美国财政部的支持下建立各种所谓的紧急设施，作为其他主要信贷市场的后盾，并支持信贷流向家庭、各种规模的企业以及地区和地方政府；暂时放宽对银行的一些监管要求，使其具有更大的放贷能力；自3月以来，将联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至10.25%之间。到今年年底，我预计经济总量仍会比去年年底要低。失业率将保持在个位数，不过是比较高的个位数；而通货膨胀率将远低于我们制定的2%的长期目标。当然，这一预测的不确定性非常高：我们处于前所未有的状况，其结果取决于公共卫生方面的行动。经济前景还取决于适当的经济政策。我认为我们需要财政政策和货币政策支持来抵御疫情和经济停摆对经济的长期损害，来支持经济更广泛和持久的复苏。现在支持经济的几个关键财政政策即将到期。在现在的经济条件下，我们显然需要进一步的财政支持来为在大流行中首当其冲的家庭、小企业以及州和地方政府提供支持，直到经济可持续地实现复苏。就美联储而言，联邦公开市场委员会表示，我们希望将联储基金的利率目标维持在0%至0.25%的水平，直到我们相信我们的经济能够经受冲击并有望实现我们的最高就业率和价格水平稳定目标。我们的资产购买将继续支持市场运作和宽松的货币政策。此外，对我们的政策进行清晰的沟通也可以使我们采取的任何货币政策措施更加有效。上周，联邦公开市场委员会发布了修订后的声明，概述了我们的长期目标和货币政策策略，这将有助于澄清和加强联邦公开市场委员会的政策意图。我将从这一修订后的声明中总结一些重点，向各位介绍美联储主席鲍威尔最近的讲话，以更全面地讨论该声明。三、关于长期目标和货币政策策略的修订后的声明在过去的一年半中，联邦公开市场委员会一直在审查我们的框架——战略、政策工具和沟通——来制定货币政策，以实现我们的既定的目标，以促进最大的就业，保持价格稳定和温和的长期利率。结合我们在大萧条期间和之后的经验、经济理论、实证分析和在全国范围内举行的一系列美联储听证会（听证会包括经济学家、从业分析师和公众）的磋商结果，我们对此次审查进行了通报。此次回顾的主要结论已在战略声明中进行了总结，根据是我们2012年发布第一个的战略，但是之后经济环境发生了变化。一个重要变化是，国内外利率水平持续下降，伴随着可持续增长的放缓和物价不稳定性。这种下降反映了一些因素，包括人口老龄化，风险偏好的变化以及全要素生产率增长的放缓。这意味着现在的联邦基金利率水平比过去更低，这一利率与最高就业率和价格稳定性相关。这意味着在经济低迷时期，现在的联邦基金利率更可能受到有效下限的限制。换句话说，在经济低迷之后，为了支持经济，联邦公开市场委员会的传统政策工具的政策空间将减少。在家庭、企业和金融市场都了解这一限制的情况下，将给通货膨胀和通货膨胀预期带来了下行的情绪，并增加了我们的两个政策目标的下行风险。经济环境的另一变化与通货膨胀动态有关。与过去相比，资源短缺与实际通货膨胀之间的联系已越来越弱，现在，通货膨胀预期起着更大的作用。这使得将通货膨胀预期保持在与我们长期的2%的长期通货膨胀率目标一致的水平上尤为重要，而且，通货膨胀率低于我们的目标将导致低利率环境下的政策空间更少。关于修订后的战略声明，首先要注意的是，联邦公开市场委员会重申，长期通胀率为2%是我们的法定目标。但是，我们的战略声明现在更加明确地说明了我们将如何实现这一通货膨胀目标。即，在通货膨胀率持续低于2%的时期之后，我们很可能会在一段时间内力争使通货膨胀率适度高于2%。这样做将有助于将通货膨胀预期（精算通货膨胀的主要决定因素）固定在与2%的通货膨胀率一致的水平。由于我们一直在努力有效地传递不应将2%解释为上限的信息，因此我们的说法将变得更加有力。我们现在清楚地知道，在通货膨胀率持续低于2%之后，我们不仅会容忍偶然的冲击使通货膨胀率超过2%，而且我们可能会制定政策，力图在一段时间内将通货膨胀率适度地提高到2%以上。我已经多次谈到政策沟通应承认不确定性这一事实。战略声明中关于我们的就业目标所做的更改认可了评估最大就业率的不确定性。的确，联邦公开市场委员会认为我们的长期失业率的水平随着时间的推移发生了显著下降，并且在没有产生通货膨胀的情况下，就业在扩张期的增长最终大大超过了以往的经验。我们花了一些时间来研究经济中的这些结构性变化。这种研究，加上先前的战略声明中提到的就业率与最大就业率的“偏离”，被一些人误解为联邦公开市场委员暗示自己有时会采取有意的政策行动，以不顾通货膨胀目标的方式减少就业。情况并不是这样。强大的劳动力市场能够促进所有美国人的经济包容性，这是显而易见的，我们必须承认我们评估的实际最大就业率并不完全精确。新的声明澄清了，在没有通货膨胀压力或金融稳定风险的情况下，高就业率不再是问题，货币政策也不会对此做出反应。我坚信清晰的政策沟通是制定有效的货币政策的重要组成部分。联邦公开市场委员会承诺尽一切努力支持可持续的经济恢复，以恢复最高就业率，维持公众服务的价格稳定，这份经由框架审查和修订的战略声明来的正是时候。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QID":0.9,"IVV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2024,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":977546177,"gmtCreate":1601650110999,"gmtModify":1705067836723,"author":{"id":"3446981254951587","authorId":"3446981254951587","name":"欧阳北坡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2508c4da3a01e7ba37ed475c98244c8c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3446981254951587","idStr":"3446981254951587"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/977546177","repostId":"2072397118","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2072397118","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1601631720,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2072397118?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2020-10-02 17:42","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"President of the Cleveland Fed: U.S. economic situation and monetary policy outlook","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2072397118","media":"新浪财经-自媒体综合","summary":"来源：肖立晟宏观经济分析导读：本文作者Loretta J． Mester，是克利夫兰联储主席。本文是2020年9月NABE基金会经济评估研讨会网络会议作者的演讲稿。Mester认为，虽然美国已经采取有","content":"<p>Source: Xiao Lisheng Macroeconomic Analysis</p><p>Introduction: The author of this article, Loretta J. Mester, is the president of the Cleveland Fed. This article is a transcript of a speech by the author of the NABE Foundation Economic Assessment Workshop Network Conference in September 2020. Mester believes that although the United States has adopted effective fiscal and monetary policies, the policy support can be stronger and last for a longer time. In order to achieve the dual goals of restoring the highest employment rate and achieving price stability, although the Federal Reserve will still adhere to the statutory inflation rate target of 2%, under this unprecedented impact, in order to achieve the statutory inflation target, the Federal Reserve must improve inflation expectations. Therefore, the Federal Reserve may formulate policies to try to moderately increase the inflation rate above 2% over a period of time; At the same time, the newly revised strategic statement acknowledges that the highest employment rate index deviates from the actual situation in the evaluation. In the future, without inflationary pressure or financial stability risk, the high employment rate will no longer be a problem, and monetary policy will not respond to this. Compiled as follows: Thank you to Jack Kleinhenz for inviting me to the NABE Foundation's Economic Assessment Seminar 2020. The last time I spoke was at the NABE conference in February, just six months later, but it seems like a lifetime has passed. Many changes have occurred since, including the current economic conditions, as well as the outlook for economic and monetary policy. To its credit, NABE has kept vital procedures running throughout the pandemic. In exceptional circumstances, this is a sign of perseverance and resilience, and many families, businesses, and organizations have also demonstrated such traits in the past few months. This resilience is the background of the U.S. economy, and it is particularly important as our economy moves towards a sustainable recovery. Next, I'll brief you on the economic outlook and monetary policy, and talk about the changes to FOMC policy announced last week, followed by a question and answer session. I express my personal opinion only and do not represent the views of my colleagues at the Federal Reserve or the Federal Open Market Committee.</p><p><b>1. Economic situation in the United States</b></p><p>When considering the economic impact of the pandemic, I find it helpful to think in stages. The shutdown phase began in March, when we adopted aggressive social isolation measures to limit the spread of the virus and buy some time for the healthcare system to admit patients, study the virus in depth and develop tests and treatment options. The shutdown of non-essential activities immediately had a serious impact on the economy.</p><p>The reopening phase began in May, when the numbers compiled by public health departments began to improve, and many parts of the country began to relax restrictions on staying at home. Economic activity and employment in many sectors began to improve in May and June as businesses began to reopen and consumers returned to spending. Industries such as travel, entertainment and hospitality have even improved, but these industries may remain weak for some time to come. Early in the reopening, our contacts in the Fourth Federal Reserve District, which includes parts of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky and West Virginia, told us that the economic recovery was more than they expected. And some official statistics have exceeded economists' expectations. The housing market is exceptionally strong, with sales levels of both new and existing homes now returning to pre-pandemic levels, if not above. Consumption of durable goods, including cars, is well above pre-pandemic levels.</p><p>That's all good news. But the resumption of economic activity appears fragile. The latest high-frequency data and information reflected by contacts in various regions show that the economic recovery in May and June has slowed down in the past few months. This slowdown in economic recovery occurred as the number of confirmed cases began to rise again in some parts of the United States in late June, leading some regions to suspend reopening plans or restrict economic activities. Even in areas where the government has not halted reopening plans, people are reducing their outings due to safety concerns, and the increase in confirmed cases appears to have a dampening effect on economic recovery. The latest data shows that although the number of newly diagnosed cases is still increasing, the growth rate is already decreasing. After that, I will see if the economic recovery picks up again.</p><p>This is an evaluation session, and I should show you charts to illustrate some of the data. Economists tend to consider growth rates when assessing economies, but in this unprecedented economic shutdown followed by reopening, looking at the level of economic activity is more helpful to gauge the economic outlook than looking at growth rates before the pandemic.</p><p><b>First,</b>Official GDP figures clearly show a sharp decline in activity related to shutdowns. Economic activity peaked in February, after which the U.S. economy entered recession. Real GDP (at an annualized rate) fell by 5% in the first quarter and 32% in the second quarter, a record reduction, including a 26% decline in fixed investment of non-residential enterprises and a 34% decline in personal consumption.<b>Real GDP in the second quarter fell to 2014 levels, which means we have lost six years of output growth.</b></p><p>In some areas, such as services, it will take longer for the economy to recover than others, and recovery and start-up depend on how well the virus is under control. But I expect the economy to bottom out in the second quarter, growth will rebound strongly in the third quarter, and growth will continue to be positive in the fourth quarter, but output levels will still end the year slightly below what they were at the end of last year.</p><p><b>Second,</b>While supply disruptions have led to higher prices for certain goods and services, declining economic activity in the first half of the year put downward pressure on inflation when the economy shut down. There has been some recovery in inflation during the reopening phase, but I expect it to remain below the long-term target of 2% for some time.</p><p><b>Third,</b>Closures and reopenings have had a clear impact on the labour market. In April, the number of unemployed people and job losses increased unprecedented, especially in those industries where people can't work from home. Many workers reported that they expected the job loss to be temporary, and as the economy reopened, we saw a rapid decline in unemployment as people on temporary furloughs began to be rehired. This is good news. However, we also hope that these figures are preferably accurate. The unemployment rate in July was 10.2%, still slightly above its post-Depression peak.<b>There are still 16 million unemployed workers in the United States, compared with 6 million in February. This means that about one in 16 Americans over the age of 16 is unemployed, close to post-Depression levels.</b>Furthermore, the deterioration in the labor market has not been equal across the population, with African-Americans, Hispanics and Asians seeing higher net unemployment gains than whites since February.</p><p><b>Fourth,</b>Salary employment data illustrates a similar picture. In just two months, in March and April, 22 million jobs were lost, and only so many of all new jobs added in the past decade.<b>More than three-quarters of these losses are in industries that earn less than average wages.</b>The good news is that 9 million new jobs have been added in just three months recently. Of course, we haven't added half the number of jobs we've lost since the pandemic, and the current level of employment is roughly equivalent to the level of 2014. So, like economic output, we lost about 6 years of new jobs.</p><p>Given that the pandemic and economic shutdowns are unprecedented, many economists, including the Federal Reserve, have been looking for higher-frequency indicators to track developments. The Cleveland Fed surveys our contacts for information more frequently, and we surveyed consumers nationwide to assess how Novel Coronavirus affects consumer attitudes and economic activity.<b>These higher-frequency indicators clearly indicate the bottoming out of the economy brought about by the reopening of the economy, but at the same time suggest that the level of economic activity correlates with data that portrays the spread of the virus.</b></p><p><b>Fifth,</b>When confirmed cases began to rise again in late June, people's mobility, or the percentage of non-home quarantine time and the data on dining in restaurants, began to decline again compared to the data in May, when they just reopened business. Our contacts in the restaurant industry have also confirmed that the recovery in business activity is slowing and that some are beginning to wonder whether restaurants will survive long term, especially those unable to transition to delivering takeout.</p><p><b>Sixth:</b>As the pandemic subsides, businesses have begun to change their plans. Early on, many contacts told us that they did not intend to permanently reduce their workforce. But, they eventually had to let some workers leave. In our most recent survey, more than half of the companies told us they had made significant changes to their business plans, including hiring plans and capital spending plans, given the increase in confirmed cases since late June.</p><p>Small businesses have been particularly hard hit by the virus, and the smallest of them are particularly true. Data from Homebase shows that the recovery in small business hiring that began in April has stalled, with about 20% fewer jobs paid by hourly wages since January. As researchers at the New York Fed have documented, Black-owned businesses have been hit particularly hard by the pandemic, twice as likely as other companies to close during the pandemic. The researchers pointed to a number of factors, including the firms' weaker financial strength, weaker relationships with banks and funding gaps that existed before the pandemic, with less access to federal relief funds.</p><p><b>Seventh,</b>Cleveland Fed survey data shows that businesses and consumers are thinking differently about the pandemic now than they did at the beginning of the pandemic. In the survey conducted in late June, about half of contacts said it would take at least a year for their company's business to return to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p>A survey by the Cleveland Fed's national daily newspaper shows that consumers are now more willing to engage in certain economic activities than they were at the beginning of the epidemic, but consumers also believe that,<b>The pandemic will last much longer than they originally thought. In March, more than 80% of respondents believed the pandemic would last a year or less. At the beginning of August, only half of the people maintained their original view, while the other half believed that the epidemic would last for two years or more.</b></p><p><b>2. U.S. Federal Government and Federal Reserve Policies</b></p><p>We have seen a link between the increase in confirmed cases and the weakening of economic activity, and this link underlines the fact that the economic recovery depends on how well the epidemic is controlled. Of course, we can control the spread of the epidemic through concrete actions. Tangible actions include expanding testing for the public and private sectors, contact tracing, investing in researching treatment options and developing vaccines, and our own individual actions to wear masks over our noses and mouths, avoid social gatherings, move at a safe distance, and wash hands frequently.</p><p>Assuming we get the virus under control and people feel safe enough and businesses are confident enough to re-engage in economic activity, the economy will transition from a reopening phase to a more sustained recovery phase. This recovery may take a while, as this pandemic has sent a huge shock to the economy.</p><p>Both the federal government and the Federal Reserve took swift and significant action to provide relief to households and businesses during the shutdown. Fiscal actions include relief to individuals, certain businesses hardest hit by the pandemic, and states and municipalities; Expanding unemployment benefits; And loans to small businesses, which are used to distribute payroll by businesses.</p><p>The Federal Reserve has taken action to ensure that financial markets have enough liquidity to continue functioning normally and that credit can continue to flow to households and businesses, thereby avoiding financial turmoil caused by the pandemic. These actions include buying Treasury Bond and mortgage-backed securities in response to market pressures; Ensuring that other countries' central banks have access to dollars; Establish a variety of so-called emergency facilities under the auspices of the U.S. Department of the Treasury to back other major credit markets and support the flow of credit to households, businesses of all sizes, and regional and local governments; Temporarily relax some regulatory requirements for banks to give them greater lending capacity; Since March, it has maintained its Federal Funds rate target between 0% and 10.25%.</p><p>By the end of this year, I expect the economic aggregate to still be lower than it was at the end of last year. The unemployment rate will remain in single digits, but it is a relatively high single digits; And inflation will be well below our long-term target of 2%. Of course, the uncertainty of this forecast is very high: we are in an unprecedented situation, the outcome of which depends on actions in public health. The economic outlook also depends on appropriate economic policies. I think we need fiscal policy and monetary policy support to withstand the long-term damage to the economy caused by the epidemic and economic shutdown to support a broader and lasting recovery of the economy. Now several key fiscal policies supporting the economy are about to expire. In today's economic conditions, we clearly need further financial support to support households, small businesses, and state and local governments who are bearing the brunt of the pandemic until the economy recovers sustainably.</p><p>For the Fed's part, the Federal Open Market Committee said that we want to maintain the Fed funds' interest rate target at 0% to 0.25% until we believe our economy can weather the shock and is on track to meet our maximum employment rate and price level stability targets. Our asset purchases will continue to support market operations and accommodative monetary policy. Furthermore, clear communication about our policies can also make any monetary policy measures we take more effective. Last week, the FOMC released a revised statement outlining our long-term goals and monetary policy strategy, which will help clarify and strengthen the FOMC's policy intent. I will summarize some of the highlights from this revised statement to introduce you to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent remarks to discuss the statement more fully.</p><p><b>III. Revised statement on long-term objectives and monetary policy strategy</b></p><p>Over the past year and a half, the Federal Open Market Committee has been reviewing our framework-strategy, policy tools and communication-to formulate monetary policy to achieve our stated goals of promoting maximum employment and maintaining price stability and moderate long-term interest rates. Combining our experience during and after the Great Depression, economic theory, empirical analysis, and the consultation results of a series of Federal Reserve hearings held nationwide that included economists, practicing analysts, and the public, we inform this review.</p><p>The main conclusions of this review have been summarized in the strategy statement, which is based on the first strategy we released in 2012, but the economic environment has changed since then. An important change is that interest rates at home and abroad continue to decline, accompanied by a slowdown in sustainable growth and price instability. This decline reflects a number of factors, including an aging population, changes in risk appetite, and slowing total factor productivity growth. This means that the level of Federal Funds rate is lower now than in the past, and this rate is associated with the highest employment rate and price stability. This means that in the economic downturn, the current Federal Funds rate is more likely to be restricted by the effective lower limit. In other words, after a downturn, there will be less policy space for the FOMC's traditional policy tools in order to support the economy. A situation where households, businesses and financial markets all understand this restriction will create downside sentiment for inflation and inflation expectations and increase downside risks to our two policy objectives.</p><p>Another change in the economic environment is related to the dynamics of inflation. Compared with the past, the link between resource shortages and real inflation has become weaker and weaker. Now, inflation expectations play a greater role. This makes it particularly important to keep inflation expectations at a level consistent with our long-term 2% inflation target, and inflation below our target will lead to less policy space in a low interest rate environment.</p><p>With regard to the revised strategy statement, the first thing to note is that the FOMC reiterated that long-term inflation of 2% is our statutory target. But, our strategy statement is now much more explicit about how we will meet this inflation target. That is, after a period of sustained inflation below 2%, we are likely to strive for a period of time to keep inflation moderately above 2%. Doing so will help to fix inflation expectations (the main determinant of actuarial inflation) at a level consistent with the 2% inflation rate. As we have been trying to effectively deliver the message that 2% should not be interpreted as a cap, our narrative will become even stronger. We now know clearly that after inflation is consistently below 2%, we will not only tolerate occasional shocks to push inflation above 2%, but we may set policies that will try to modestly increase inflation above 2% for a period of time.</p><p>I have spoken many times about the fact that policy communication should acknowledge uncertainty. The changes made in the Strategy Statement regarding our employment targets recognize the uncertainty in assessing the maximum employment rate. Indeed, the Federal Open Market Committee believes that the level of our long-term unemployment rate has declined significantly over time, and that in the absence of inflation, employment growth during the expansion period has ultimately greatly exceeded previous experience. We have spent some time looking at these structural changes in the economy. This kind of research, coupled with references to the \"deviation\" of employment rates from maximum employment rates in previous strategy statements, has been misinterpreted by some as the FOMC suggesting that it sometimes takes intentional policy actions to reduce employment in ways that disregard inflation targeting. That's not the case. The ability of a strong labor market to promote economic inclusion for all Americans is obvious, and we must acknowledge that the actual maximum employment rate we assess is not entirely precise.<b>The new announcement clarifies that in the absence of inflationary pressures or risks to financial stability, high employment rates are no longer an issue and monetary policy will not respond to it.</b></p><p>I firmly believe that clear policy communication is an important part of developing effective monetary policy. The Federal Open Market Committee promised to make every effort to support sustainable economic recovery, restore the highest employment rate and maintain the price stability of public services. This strategic statement, which has been reviewed and revised by the framework, comes at the right time.</p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>President of the Cleveland Fed: U.S. economic situation and monetary policy outlook</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPresident of the Cleveland Fed: U.S. economic situation and monetary policy outlook\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经-自媒体综合</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-10-02 17:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Source: Xiao Lisheng Macroeconomic Analysis</p><p>Introduction: The author of this article, Loretta J. Mester, is the president of the Cleveland Fed. This article is a transcript of a speech by the author of the NABE Foundation Economic Assessment Workshop Network Conference in September 2020. Mester believes that although the United States has adopted effective fiscal and monetary policies, the policy support can be stronger and last for a longer time. In order to achieve the dual goals of restoring the highest employment rate and achieving price stability, although the Federal Reserve will still adhere to the statutory inflation rate target of 2%, under this unprecedented impact, in order to achieve the statutory inflation target, the Federal Reserve must improve inflation expectations. Therefore, the Federal Reserve may formulate policies to try to moderately increase the inflation rate above 2% over a period of time; At the same time, the newly revised strategic statement acknowledges that the highest employment rate index deviates from the actual situation in the evaluation. In the future, without inflationary pressure or financial stability risk, the high employment rate will no longer be a problem, and monetary policy will not respond to this. Compiled as follows: Thank you to Jack Kleinhenz for inviting me to the NABE Foundation's Economic Assessment Seminar 2020. The last time I spoke was at the NABE conference in February, just six months later, but it seems like a lifetime has passed. Many changes have occurred since, including the current economic conditions, as well as the outlook for economic and monetary policy. To its credit, NABE has kept vital procedures running throughout the pandemic. In exceptional circumstances, this is a sign of perseverance and resilience, and many families, businesses, and organizations have also demonstrated such traits in the past few months. This resilience is the background of the U.S. economy, and it is particularly important as our economy moves towards a sustainable recovery. Next, I'll brief you on the economic outlook and monetary policy, and talk about the changes to FOMC policy announced last week, followed by a question and answer session. I express my personal opinion only and do not represent the views of my colleagues at the Federal Reserve or the Federal Open Market Committee.</p><p><b>1. Economic situation in the United States</b></p><p>When considering the economic impact of the pandemic, I find it helpful to think in stages. The shutdown phase began in March, when we adopted aggressive social isolation measures to limit the spread of the virus and buy some time for the healthcare system to admit patients, study the virus in depth and develop tests and treatment options. The shutdown of non-essential activities immediately had a serious impact on the economy.</p><p>The reopening phase began in May, when the numbers compiled by public health departments began to improve, and many parts of the country began to relax restrictions on staying at home. Economic activity and employment in many sectors began to improve in May and June as businesses began to reopen and consumers returned to spending. Industries such as travel, entertainment and hospitality have even improved, but these industries may remain weak for some time to come. Early in the reopening, our contacts in the Fourth Federal Reserve District, which includes parts of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky and West Virginia, told us that the economic recovery was more than they expected. And some official statistics have exceeded economists' expectations. The housing market is exceptionally strong, with sales levels of both new and existing homes now returning to pre-pandemic levels, if not above. Consumption of durable goods, including cars, is well above pre-pandemic levels.</p><p>That's all good news. But the resumption of economic activity appears fragile. The latest high-frequency data and information reflected by contacts in various regions show that the economic recovery in May and June has slowed down in the past few months. This slowdown in economic recovery occurred as the number of confirmed cases began to rise again in some parts of the United States in late June, leading some regions to suspend reopening plans or restrict economic activities. Even in areas where the government has not halted reopening plans, people are reducing their outings due to safety concerns, and the increase in confirmed cases appears to have a dampening effect on economic recovery. The latest data shows that although the number of newly diagnosed cases is still increasing, the growth rate is already decreasing. After that, I will see if the economic recovery picks up again.</p><p>This is an evaluation session, and I should show you charts to illustrate some of the data. Economists tend to consider growth rates when assessing economies, but in this unprecedented economic shutdown followed by reopening, looking at the level of economic activity is more helpful to gauge the economic outlook than looking at growth rates before the pandemic.</p><p><b>First,</b>Official GDP figures clearly show a sharp decline in activity related to shutdowns. Economic activity peaked in February, after which the U.S. economy entered recession. Real GDP (at an annualized rate) fell by 5% in the first quarter and 32% in the second quarter, a record reduction, including a 26% decline in fixed investment of non-residential enterprises and a 34% decline in personal consumption.<b>Real GDP in the second quarter fell to 2014 levels, which means we have lost six years of output growth.</b></p><p>In some areas, such as services, it will take longer for the economy to recover than others, and recovery and start-up depend on how well the virus is under control. But I expect the economy to bottom out in the second quarter, growth will rebound strongly in the third quarter, and growth will continue to be positive in the fourth quarter, but output levels will still end the year slightly below what they were at the end of last year.</p><p><b>Second,</b>While supply disruptions have led to higher prices for certain goods and services, declining economic activity in the first half of the year put downward pressure on inflation when the economy shut down. There has been some recovery in inflation during the reopening phase, but I expect it to remain below the long-term target of 2% for some time.</p><p><b>Third,</b>Closures and reopenings have had a clear impact on the labour market. In April, the number of unemployed people and job losses increased unprecedented, especially in those industries where people can't work from home. Many workers reported that they expected the job loss to be temporary, and as the economy reopened, we saw a rapid decline in unemployment as people on temporary furloughs began to be rehired. This is good news. However, we also hope that these figures are preferably accurate. The unemployment rate in July was 10.2%, still slightly above its post-Depression peak.<b>There are still 16 million unemployed workers in the United States, compared with 6 million in February. This means that about one in 16 Americans over the age of 16 is unemployed, close to post-Depression levels.</b>Furthermore, the deterioration in the labor market has not been equal across the population, with African-Americans, Hispanics and Asians seeing higher net unemployment gains than whites since February.</p><p><b>Fourth,</b>Salary employment data illustrates a similar picture. In just two months, in March and April, 22 million jobs were lost, and only so many of all new jobs added in the past decade.<b>More than three-quarters of these losses are in industries that earn less than average wages.</b>The good news is that 9 million new jobs have been added in just three months recently. Of course, we haven't added half the number of jobs we've lost since the pandemic, and the current level of employment is roughly equivalent to the level of 2014. So, like economic output, we lost about 6 years of new jobs.</p><p>Given that the pandemic and economic shutdowns are unprecedented, many economists, including the Federal Reserve, have been looking for higher-frequency indicators to track developments. The Cleveland Fed surveys our contacts for information more frequently, and we surveyed consumers nationwide to assess how Novel Coronavirus affects consumer attitudes and economic activity.<b>These higher-frequency indicators clearly indicate the bottoming out of the economy brought about by the reopening of the economy, but at the same time suggest that the level of economic activity correlates with data that portrays the spread of the virus.</b></p><p><b>Fifth,</b>When confirmed cases began to rise again in late June, people's mobility, or the percentage of non-home quarantine time and the data on dining in restaurants, began to decline again compared to the data in May, when they just reopened business. Our contacts in the restaurant industry have also confirmed that the recovery in business activity is slowing and that some are beginning to wonder whether restaurants will survive long term, especially those unable to transition to delivering takeout.</p><p><b>Sixth:</b>As the pandemic subsides, businesses have begun to change their plans. Early on, many contacts told us that they did not intend to permanently reduce their workforce. But, they eventually had to let some workers leave. In our most recent survey, more than half of the companies told us they had made significant changes to their business plans, including hiring plans and capital spending plans, given the increase in confirmed cases since late June.</p><p>Small businesses have been particularly hard hit by the virus, and the smallest of them are particularly true. Data from Homebase shows that the recovery in small business hiring that began in April has stalled, with about 20% fewer jobs paid by hourly wages since January. As researchers at the New York Fed have documented, Black-owned businesses have been hit particularly hard by the pandemic, twice as likely as other companies to close during the pandemic. The researchers pointed to a number of factors, including the firms' weaker financial strength, weaker relationships with banks and funding gaps that existed before the pandemic, with less access to federal relief funds.</p><p><b>Seventh,</b>Cleveland Fed survey data shows that businesses and consumers are thinking differently about the pandemic now than they did at the beginning of the pandemic. In the survey conducted in late June, about half of contacts said it would take at least a year for their company's business to return to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p>A survey by the Cleveland Fed's national daily newspaper shows that consumers are now more willing to engage in certain economic activities than they were at the beginning of the epidemic, but consumers also believe that,<b>The pandemic will last much longer than they originally thought. In March, more than 80% of respondents believed the pandemic would last a year or less. At the beginning of August, only half of the people maintained their original view, while the other half believed that the epidemic would last for two years or more.</b></p><p><b>2. U.S. Federal Government and Federal Reserve Policies</b></p><p>We have seen a link between the increase in confirmed cases and the weakening of economic activity, and this link underlines the fact that the economic recovery depends on how well the epidemic is controlled. Of course, we can control the spread of the epidemic through concrete actions. Tangible actions include expanding testing for the public and private sectors, contact tracing, investing in researching treatment options and developing vaccines, and our own individual actions to wear masks over our noses and mouths, avoid social gatherings, move at a safe distance, and wash hands frequently.</p><p>Assuming we get the virus under control and people feel safe enough and businesses are confident enough to re-engage in economic activity, the economy will transition from a reopening phase to a more sustained recovery phase. This recovery may take a while, as this pandemic has sent a huge shock to the economy.</p><p>Both the federal government and the Federal Reserve took swift and significant action to provide relief to households and businesses during the shutdown. Fiscal actions include relief to individuals, certain businesses hardest hit by the pandemic, and states and municipalities; Expanding unemployment benefits; And loans to small businesses, which are used to distribute payroll by businesses.</p><p>The Federal Reserve has taken action to ensure that financial markets have enough liquidity to continue functioning normally and that credit can continue to flow to households and businesses, thereby avoiding financial turmoil caused by the pandemic. These actions include buying Treasury Bond and mortgage-backed securities in response to market pressures; Ensuring that other countries' central banks have access to dollars; Establish a variety of so-called emergency facilities under the auspices of the U.S. Department of the Treasury to back other major credit markets and support the flow of credit to households, businesses of all sizes, and regional and local governments; Temporarily relax some regulatory requirements for banks to give them greater lending capacity; Since March, it has maintained its Federal Funds rate target between 0% and 10.25%.</p><p>By the end of this year, I expect the economic aggregate to still be lower than it was at the end of last year. The unemployment rate will remain in single digits, but it is a relatively high single digits; And inflation will be well below our long-term target of 2%. Of course, the uncertainty of this forecast is very high: we are in an unprecedented situation, the outcome of which depends on actions in public health. The economic outlook also depends on appropriate economic policies. I think we need fiscal policy and monetary policy support to withstand the long-term damage to the economy caused by the epidemic and economic shutdown to support a broader and lasting recovery of the economy. Now several key fiscal policies supporting the economy are about to expire. In today's economic conditions, we clearly need further financial support to support households, small businesses, and state and local governments who are bearing the brunt of the pandemic until the economy recovers sustainably.</p><p>For the Fed's part, the Federal Open Market Committee said that we want to maintain the Fed funds' interest rate target at 0% to 0.25% until we believe our economy can weather the shock and is on track to meet our maximum employment rate and price level stability targets. Our asset purchases will continue to support market operations and accommodative monetary policy. Furthermore, clear communication about our policies can also make any monetary policy measures we take more effective. Last week, the FOMC released a revised statement outlining our long-term goals and monetary policy strategy, which will help clarify and strengthen the FOMC's policy intent. I will summarize some of the highlights from this revised statement to introduce you to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent remarks to discuss the statement more fully.</p><p><b>III. Revised statement on long-term objectives and monetary policy strategy</b></p><p>Over the past year and a half, the Federal Open Market Committee has been reviewing our framework-strategy, policy tools and communication-to formulate monetary policy to achieve our stated goals of promoting maximum employment and maintaining price stability and moderate long-term interest rates. Combining our experience during and after the Great Depression, economic theory, empirical analysis, and the consultation results of a series of Federal Reserve hearings held nationwide that included economists, practicing analysts, and the public, we inform this review.</p><p>The main conclusions of this review have been summarized in the strategy statement, which is based on the first strategy we released in 2012, but the economic environment has changed since then. An important change is that interest rates at home and abroad continue to decline, accompanied by a slowdown in sustainable growth and price instability. This decline reflects a number of factors, including an aging population, changes in risk appetite, and slowing total factor productivity growth. This means that the level of Federal Funds rate is lower now than in the past, and this rate is associated with the highest employment rate and price stability. This means that in the economic downturn, the current Federal Funds rate is more likely to be restricted by the effective lower limit. In other words, after a downturn, there will be less policy space for the FOMC's traditional policy tools in order to support the economy. A situation where households, businesses and financial markets all understand this restriction will create downside sentiment for inflation and inflation expectations and increase downside risks to our two policy objectives.</p><p>Another change in the economic environment is related to the dynamics of inflation. Compared with the past, the link between resource shortages and real inflation has become weaker and weaker. Now, inflation expectations play a greater role. This makes it particularly important to keep inflation expectations at a level consistent with our long-term 2% inflation target, and inflation below our target will lead to less policy space in a low interest rate environment.</p><p>With regard to the revised strategy statement, the first thing to note is that the FOMC reiterated that long-term inflation of 2% is our statutory target. But, our strategy statement is now much more explicit about how we will meet this inflation target. That is, after a period of sustained inflation below 2%, we are likely to strive for a period of time to keep inflation moderately above 2%. Doing so will help to fix inflation expectations (the main determinant of actuarial inflation) at a level consistent with the 2% inflation rate. As we have been trying to effectively deliver the message that 2% should not be interpreted as a cap, our narrative will become even stronger. We now know clearly that after inflation is consistently below 2%, we will not only tolerate occasional shocks to push inflation above 2%, but we may set policies that will try to modestly increase inflation above 2% for a period of time.</p><p>I have spoken many times about the fact that policy communication should acknowledge uncertainty. The changes made in the Strategy Statement regarding our employment targets recognize the uncertainty in assessing the maximum employment rate. Indeed, the Federal Open Market Committee believes that the level of our long-term unemployment rate has declined significantly over time, and that in the absence of inflation, employment growth during the expansion period has ultimately greatly exceeded previous experience. We have spent some time looking at these structural changes in the economy. This kind of research, coupled with references to the \"deviation\" of employment rates from maximum employment rates in previous strategy statements, has been misinterpreted by some as the FOMC suggesting that it sometimes takes intentional policy actions to reduce employment in ways that disregard inflation targeting. That's not the case. The ability of a strong labor market to promote economic inclusion for all Americans is obvious, and we must acknowledge that the actual maximum employment rate we assess is not entirely precise.<b>The new announcement clarifies that in the absence of inflationary pressures or risks to financial stability, high employment rates are no longer an issue and monetary policy will not respond to it.</b></p><p>I firmly believe that clear policy communication is an important part of developing effective monetary policy. The Federal Open Market Committee promised to make every effort to support sustainable economic recovery, restore the highest employment rate and maintain the price stability of public services. This strategic statement, which has been reviewed and revised by the framework, comes at the right time.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/2020-10-02/doc-iivhvpwz0057234.shtml\">新浪财经-自媒体综合</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/2020-10-02/doc-iivhvpwz0057234.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2072397118","content_text":"来源：肖立晟宏观经济分析导读：本文作者Loretta J． Mester，是克利夫兰联储主席。本文是2020年9月NABE基金会经济评估研讨会网络会议作者的演讲稿。Mester认为，虽然美国已经采取有效的财政政策和货币政策，但政策的支持力度可以更大，可以延续更长的时间。为了达成恢复最高就业率和实现价格稳定的双重目标，尽管美联储仍然会坚持2%的法定通货膨胀率目标，但在这种前所未有的冲击下，想要达到法定通胀目标，美联储必须改善通货膨胀预期，因此美联储可能会制定政策，力图在一段时间内将通货膨胀率适度地提高到2%以上；同时新修订的战略声明承认最高就业率指标在评估时与实际情况存在一定偏离，今后在没有通货膨胀压力或金融稳定风险的情况下，高就业率不再是问题，货币政策也不会对此做出反应。编译如下：感谢Jack Kleinhenz邀请我参加NABE基金会的2020年经济评估研讨会。我上次发言是在2月的NABE 会议上，仅仅过去了六个月，但似乎已经过了一辈子。之后发生了许多变化，包括当前的经济状况，以及经济和货币政策的前景。值得赞扬的是，NABE 在整个大流行期间保持了重要程序的运转。在特殊情况下，这是毅力和韧性的体现，在过去的几个月中，许多家庭、企业和组织也展现了这样的特质。这种韧性是美国经济的底色，随着我们的经济迈向可持续复苏之路，这种韧性格外重要。接下来，我将向各位简要介绍经济前景和货币政策，并谈谈上周宣布的FOMC政策的变化，然后是提问环节。我仅表达个人观点，不代表美联储或联邦公开市场委员会的同事的观点。一、美国经济形势在考虑大流行的经济影响时，我发现分阶段思考是有帮助的。停产阶段始于3月，当时我们采取了积极的社交隔离措施，以限制病毒的传播，并为医疗保健系统争取了一定的时间，使得医疗系统可以收治病人、深入研究病毒并开发出测试办法和治疗方案。非必要活动的关闭立刻对经济产生了严重的影响。重新开放阶段于5月开始，公共卫生部门统计的各项数字开始改善，全国许多地区开始放宽居家隔离的限制。随着企业开始重新开放和消费者重新消费，5月和6月许多部门的经济活动和雇用情况开始改善。旅行，娱乐和酒店等行业甚至也有所改善，不过这些行业可能仍然会在未来一段时间内保持疲软。在重新开放初期，我们在俄亥俄州、宾夕法尼亚州、肯塔基州和西维吉尼亚州部分地区在内的第四联邦储备区的联系人告诉我们，经济复苏的情况超出了他们的预期。而且一些官方统计数据也超出了经济学家的预期。住房市场格外强劲，新住房和现有住房的销售水平现在都回到大流行之前，甚至超过之前。包括汽车在内的耐用品消费远高于大流行前水平。这都是好消息。但是经济活动的恢复似乎是脆弱的。最新的高频数据和各地区联系人的反映的信息表明，在过去的几个月中，5月和6月的经济回升速度有所放缓。由于6月下旬美国某些地区的确诊病例数再次开始上升，出现了这种经济恢复放缓，导致一些地区暂停重开计划或对经济活动进行限制。即使在政府没有叫停重新开放计划的地区，人们也出于安全考虑而减少外出，确诊病例的增加似乎也对经济恢复产生了抑制作用。最新的数据表明，新确诊的病例数虽然仍在增加，但增速已经在减小。之后我将观察经济恢复的速度是否再次加快。这是一次评估会议，我应该向各位展示图表来说明一些数据。经济学家在评估经济时往往会考虑增长率，但在这种前所未有的经济停摆又重新开放的情况下，与大流行之前观察增长率不同，观察经济活动的水平更有助于衡量经济前景。第一、官方的GDP数据清楚地显示了与停工有关的活动的急剧下降。经济活动在2月达到顶峰，之后美国经济进入衰退。第一季度实际GDP（折合年率）下降5%，第二季度实际GDP（折合年率）下降32%，减少量创历史新高，其中非住宅企业固定投资下降26%，个人消费下降34%。第二季度的实际GDP下降到2014年的水平，也就是说我们已经失去了六年的产出增长。在某些领域，如服务业，经济恢复所需要的时间将比其他领域要长，并且恢复和启动取决于病毒的控制情况。但我预计第二季度经济将触底，第三季度增长将强劲反弹，第四季度将继续保持正增长，但年底的产出水平仍将略低于去年年底的水平。第二、尽管供应中断已导致某些商品和服务的价格上涨，但当经济关闭时，上半年经济活动的下降给通货膨胀带来了下行压力。在重新开放阶段，通货膨胀率已出现一定程度的恢复，但我预计通货膨胀率将在一段时间内保持在2%这一长期目标以下。第三、关闭和重新开放对劳动力市场产生了明显的影响。4月，失业人数和岗位流失的数字空前增加，特别在那些人们无法在家工作的行业中。许多工人报告说，他们预计失业将是暂时的，并且随着经济的重新开放，随着临时休假的人们开始被重新雇用，我们看到了失业率迅速下降。这是个好消息。但是，我们也希望这些数字最好是准确的。7月份的失业率为10.2%，仍略高于大萧条过后的峰值。美国现在仍然有1600万名工人失业，在2月的时候，这个数字是600万。这意味着16岁以上的美国人中，大约16个人就有一个失业，接近大萧条后的水平。此外，劳动力市场的恶化情况在人群中并不平等，自二月份以来，非裔、西班牙裔和亚裔的失业率净增长高于白人。第四、 薪资就业数据说明了类似的情况。在3月和4月的短短两个月内，就流失了2200万个工作岗位，过去十年所有新增的就业岗位也只有这么多。在这些损失中，有四分之三以上属于收入低于平均工资的行业。好消息是，在最近的短短三个月内，有新增了900万个工作岗位。当然，我们新增的就业岗位还没有从大流行以来流失的就业岗位数量的一半，目前的就业水平大致相当于2014年的水平。因此，和经济产出一样，我们失去了大约6 年的新增就业岗位。鉴于大流行和经济停摆是前所未有的，包括美联储在内的许多经济学家一直在寻找更高频率的指标来追踪事态发展。克利夫兰联储会更频繁地向我们的联系人调查信息，并且我们在全国范围内对消费者进行了调查，以评估新冠病毒如何影响消费者的态度和经济活动。这些较高频率的指标清楚地表明了经济重新开放带来的经济触底回升，但同时也表明经济活动水平与描绘病毒传播情况的数据相关。第五、当确诊病例在6月下旬再次开始上升时，与刚刚重新开始营业的5月的数据相比，人们的流动性，或者说非居家隔离时间所占的百分比和到餐厅就餐的数据又开始下降。我们在餐饮业的联系人也证实，商业活动的复苏正在放缓，并且一些人开始怀疑餐厅能否长期生存，尤其是那些无法过渡到提供外卖的商家。第六： 随着疫情的消退，企业已开始改变其计划。早期，许多联系人告诉我们，他们不打算永久裁减其劳动力。但是，他们最终不得不让一些工人离开。在我们最近的调查中，超过一半的公司告诉我们，鉴于自6月下旬以来确诊病例的增加，他们对商业计划进行了重大的更改，包括招聘计划和资本支出计划。小型企业受到病毒的影响尤其严重，而规模最小的小型企业尤其如此。来自Homebase的数据显示，四月份开始的小型企业招聘复苏已经停滞，自一月以来，按时薪付费的岗位减少了约20%。正如纽约联储的研究人员所记录的那样，黑人拥有的企业在大流行中遭受的打击尤为严重，在大流行期间关闭的可能性是其他公司的两倍。研究人员指出了许多因素，包括这些公司的财务实力较弱，与银行的关系较弱以及大流行之前就存在的资金缺口，获得联邦救济基金的机会较小。第七、克利夫兰联储（Cleveland Fed）的调查数据表明，现在企业和消费者在疫情方面的想法与疫情刚开始时有所不同。在6月下旬进行的调查中，大约一半的联系人表示，他们公司的业务至少需要一年的时间才能恢复到大流行前的水平。克利夫兰联储的全国性日报的调查显示，消费者现在比疫情刚开始时更愿意进行一些特定的经济活动，但消费者们也认为，大流行的持续时间将比他们原来想象的要长很多。3月，超过80 %的受访者认为大流行会持续一年或更短的时间。在八月初，只有一半的人保持原先的看法，而另一半则认为这场疫情将持续两年甚至更长的时间。二、美国联邦政府与美联储政策我们已经看到，确诊病例的增加与经济活动减弱之间的联系，这种联系强调了这样一个事实：经济复苏的情况取决于疫情的控制情况。当然，我们可以通过切实行动控制疫情的传播。切实的行动包括对公共和私营部门扩大检测，接触者追踪，投资研究治疗方案和开发疫苗，以及我们自己的个人行动，即戴上口罩遮住我们的鼻子和嘴巴，避免社交聚会，在安全距离下活动，经常洗手。假设我们控制了该病毒，并且人们感到足够安全，企业有足够的信心重新参与经济活动，那么经济将从重新开放阶段过渡到更加持续的复苏阶段。这种复苏可能需要一段时间，因为这种大流行给经济带来了巨大冲击。联邦政府和美联储都采取了迅速而重大的行动，以在停工期间为家庭和企业提供救济。财政行动包括向个人、受大流行打击最严重的某些企业以及州和市提供救助；扩大失业救济金；以及向小企业贷款，这些贷款被用于企业发放工资。美联储采取了行动，以确保金融市场有足够的流动性以继续正常运转，并且确保信贷可以继续流向家庭和企业，从而避免大流行造成的金融动荡。这些行动包括购买国债和抵押贷款支持证券以应对市场压力；确保其他国家的央行可以获得美元；在美国财政部的支持下建立各种所谓的紧急设施，作为其他主要信贷市场的后盾，并支持信贷流向家庭、各种规模的企业以及地区和地方政府；暂时放宽对银行的一些监管要求，使其具有更大的放贷能力；自3月以来，将联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至10.25%之间。到今年年底，我预计经济总量仍会比去年年底要低。失业率将保持在个位数，不过是比较高的个位数；而通货膨胀率将远低于我们制定的2%的长期目标。当然，这一预测的不确定性非常高：我们处于前所未有的状况，其结果取决于公共卫生方面的行动。经济前景还取决于适当的经济政策。我认为我们需要财政政策和货币政策支持来抵御疫情和经济停摆对经济的长期损害，来支持经济更广泛和持久的复苏。现在支持经济的几个关键财政政策即将到期。在现在的经济条件下，我们显然需要进一步的财政支持来为在大流行中首当其冲的家庭、小企业以及州和地方政府提供支持，直到经济可持续地实现复苏。就美联储而言，联邦公开市场委员会表示，我们希望将联储基金的利率目标维持在0%至0.25%的水平，直到我们相信我们的经济能够经受冲击并有望实现我们的最高就业率和价格水平稳定目标。我们的资产购买将继续支持市场运作和宽松的货币政策。此外，对我们的政策进行清晰的沟通也可以使我们采取的任何货币政策措施更加有效。上周，联邦公开市场委员会发布了修订后的声明，概述了我们的长期目标和货币政策策略，这将有助于澄清和加强联邦公开市场委员会的政策意图。我将从这一修订后的声明中总结一些重点，向各位介绍美联储主席鲍威尔最近的讲话，以更全面地讨论该声明。三、关于长期目标和货币政策策略的修订后的声明在过去的一年半中，联邦公开市场委员会一直在审查我们的框架——战略、政策工具和沟通——来制定货币政策，以实现我们的既定的目标，以促进最大的就业，保持价格稳定和温和的长期利率。结合我们在大萧条期间和之后的经验、经济理论、实证分析和在全国范围内举行的一系列美联储听证会（听证会包括经济学家、从业分析师和公众）的磋商结果，我们对此次审查进行了通报。此次回顾的主要结论已在战略声明中进行了总结，根据是我们2012年发布第一个的战略，但是之后经济环境发生了变化。一个重要变化是，国内外利率水平持续下降，伴随着可持续增长的放缓和物价不稳定性。这种下降反映了一些因素，包括人口老龄化，风险偏好的变化以及全要素生产率增长的放缓。这意味着现在的联邦基金利率水平比过去更低，这一利率与最高就业率和价格稳定性相关。这意味着在经济低迷时期，现在的联邦基金利率更可能受到有效下限的限制。换句话说，在经济低迷之后，为了支持经济，联邦公开市场委员会的传统政策工具的政策空间将减少。在家庭、企业和金融市场都了解这一限制的情况下，将给通货膨胀和通货膨胀预期带来了下行的情绪，并增加了我们的两个政策目标的下行风险。经济环境的另一变化与通货膨胀动态有关。与过去相比，资源短缺与实际通货膨胀之间的联系已越来越弱，现在，通货膨胀预期起着更大的作用。这使得将通货膨胀预期保持在与我们长期的2%的长期通货膨胀率目标一致的水平上尤为重要，而且，通货膨胀率低于我们的目标将导致低利率环境下的政策空间更少。关于修订后的战略声明，首先要注意的是，联邦公开市场委员会重申，长期通胀率为2%是我们的法定目标。但是，我们的战略声明现在更加明确地说明了我们将如何实现这一通货膨胀目标。即，在通货膨胀率持续低于2%的时期之后，我们很可能会在一段时间内力争使通货膨胀率适度高于2%。这样做将有助于将通货膨胀预期（精算通货膨胀的主要决定因素）固定在与2%的通货膨胀率一致的水平。由于我们一直在努力有效地传递不应将2%解释为上限的信息，因此我们的说法将变得更加有力。我们现在清楚地知道，在通货膨胀率持续低于2%之后，我们不仅会容忍偶然的冲击使通货膨胀率超过2%，而且我们可能会制定政策，力图在一段时间内将通货膨胀率适度地提高到2%以上。我已经多次谈到政策沟通应承认不确定性这一事实。战略声明中关于我们的就业目标所做的更改认可了评估最大就业率的不确定性。的确，联邦公开市场委员会认为我们的长期失业率的水平随着时间的推移发生了显著下降，并且在没有产生通货膨胀的情况下，就业在扩张期的增长最终大大超过了以往的经验。我们花了一些时间来研究经济中的这些结构性变化。这种研究，加上先前的战略声明中提到的就业率与最大就业率的“偏离”，被一些人误解为联邦公开市场委员暗示自己有时会采取有意的政策行动，以不顾通货膨胀目标的方式减少就业。情况并不是这样。强大的劳动力市场能够促进所有美国人的经济包容性，这是显而易见的，我们必须承认我们评估的实际最大就业率并不完全精确。新的声明澄清了，在没有通货膨胀压力或金融稳定风险的情况下，高就业率不再是问题，货币政策也不会对此做出反应。我坚信清晰的政策沟通是制定有效的货币政策的重要组成部分。联邦公开市场委员会承诺尽一切努力支持可持续的经济恢复，以恢复最高就业率，维持公众服务的价格稳定，这份经由框架审查和修订的战略声明来的正是时候。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QID":0.9,"IVV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2024,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}