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Sachez
2021-01-16
$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$
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@少年维特:看完奈飛CEO《不拘一格》的一些感受
Sachez
2020-11-25
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The Eve of Great Change! Morgan Stanley Heavy Report, Bullish on Tesla
Go to Tiger App to see more news
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$</a>.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$</a>.","text":"$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/334611034","repostId":"335658120","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":335658120,"gmtCreate":1610592465360,"gmtModify":1704984772205,"author":{"id":"3541377675348678","authorId":"3541377675348678","name":"少年维特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1bdb6640a3e75becbeddd8174c1a002","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541377675348678","idStr":"3541377675348678"},"themes":[],"title":"看完奈飛CEO《不拘一格》的一些感受","htmlText":"最近奈飛要發財報了，剛好最近剛擼完他們創始人CEO的那本書《不拘一格》，很開眼界，特別是結合最近的<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a> 事件來看，天上地下兩個極端，一個是《不拘一格》，一個是工具人，說下自己的一些看法。先說說這本書吧，太火了，聽說已經賣斷貨了，前兩天看還有直播陸奇和裏德的對話。整體感受：打工仔世風日上啊。核心關鍵詞，或者說是大前提，就是人才密度，所有一系列管理都是基於人才密度建立起來的。書開篇有個龍捲風圖，可以認爲是整本書的框架。“人才重於流程、創新高於效率、自由多於管控的企業文化。我們的文化強調以人才密度實現最高績效，對員工實行情境管理而不是控制。這使得我們能夠不斷地成長，並隨着整個世界、隨着客戶需求的變化而變化。”書裏面提到了很多案例感覺還是非常有意思：比如，他們叫北極星策略，就一個指標，只要站在公司立場是正確的，無需逐層審批；不用取悅領導，把員工當成成年人，有充分的的自由度，甚至一線員工都可以代表公司簽訂幾千萬刀的合同；絕對坦誠，可以越N級領導，當場提問質疑指出錯誤，前提是抱着解決問題的態度。這種文化還會充分考慮本地化，比如荷蘭人甚至比美國人更直接，日本就比較含蓄，同樣一句話文化差異也可能帶來不一樣效果。信息透明，絕對信任，高管開會討論的內容不是一小撮人的信息優勢，全員都能看到，更奇葩的是公司季度報告也會提前拿出來公開討論，甚至發財報以後對股價有什麼影響也會分析。鼓勵大家去別家公司面試，隨時校準自己在人才市場的最高價位；……類似這樣的事兒，對國內絕大部分企業來講是天方夜譚。如果中國市場開放了，奈飛殺進來，狗在愛優騰的人才還不得扎堆往裏面鑽。最後總結，我也認爲比較理智，用哪種方式，還是要看行業，究竟是避免出錯的行業，還是尋求創新的行業。奈飛這種後者可能","listText":"最近奈飛要發財報了，剛好最近剛擼完他們創始人CEO的那本書《不拘一格》，很開眼界，特別是結合最近的<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a> 事件來看，天上地下兩個極端，一個是《不拘一格》，一個是工具人，說下自己的一些看法。先說說這本書吧，太火了，聽說已經賣斷貨了，前兩天看還有直播陸奇和裏德的對話。整體感受：打工仔世風日上啊。核心關鍵詞，或者說是大前提，就是人才密度，所有一系列管理都是基於人才密度建立起來的。書開篇有個龍捲風圖，可以認爲是整本書的框架。“人才重於流程、創新高於效率、自由多於管控的企業文化。我們的文化強調以人才密度實現最高績效，對員工實行情境管理而不是控制。這使得我們能夠不斷地成長，並隨着整個世界、隨着客戶需求的變化而變化。”書裏面提到了很多案例感覺還是非常有意思：比如，他們叫北極星策略，就一個指標，只要站在公司立場是正確的，無需逐層審批；不用取悅領導，把員工當成成年人，有充分的的自由度，甚至一線員工都可以代表公司簽訂幾千萬刀的合同；絕對坦誠，可以越N級領導，當場提問質疑指出錯誤，前提是抱着解決問題的態度。這種文化還會充分考慮本地化，比如荷蘭人甚至比美國人更直接，日本就比較含蓄，同樣一句話文化差異也可能帶來不一樣效果。信息透明，絕對信任，高管開會討論的內容不是一小撮人的信息優勢，全員都能看到，更奇葩的是公司季度報告也會提前拿出來公開討論，甚至發財報以後對股價有什麼影響也會分析。鼓勵大家去別家公司面試，隨時校準自己在人才市場的最高價位；……類似這樣的事兒，對國內絕大部分企業來講是天方夜譚。如果中國市場開放了，奈飛殺進來，狗在愛優騰的人才還不得扎堆往裏面鑽。最後總結，我也認爲比較理智，用哪種方式，還是要看行業，究竟是避免出錯的行業，還是尋求創新的行業。奈飛這種後者可能","text":"最近奈飛要發財報了，剛好最近剛擼完他們創始人CEO的那本書《不拘一格》，很開眼界，特別是結合最近的$拼多多(PDD)$ 事件來看，天上地下兩個極端，一個是《不拘一格》，一個是工具人，說下自己的一些看法。先說說這本書吧，太火了，聽說已經賣斷貨了，前兩天看還有直播陸奇和裏德的對話。整體感受：打工仔世風日上啊。核心關鍵詞，或者說是大前提，就是人才密度，所有一系列管理都是基於人才密度建立起來的。書開篇有個龍捲風圖，可以認爲是整本書的框架。“人才重於流程、創新高於效率、自由多於管控的企業文化。我們的文化強調以人才密度實現最高績效，對員工實行情境管理而不是控制。這使得我們能夠不斷地成長，並隨着整個世界、隨着客戶需求的變化而變化。”書裏面提到了很多案例感覺還是非常有意思：比如，他們叫北極星策略，就一個指標，只要站在公司立場是正確的，無需逐層審批；不用取悅領導，把員工當成成年人，有充分的的自由度，甚至一線員工都可以代表公司簽訂幾千萬刀的合同；絕對坦誠，可以越N級領導，當場提問質疑指出錯誤，前提是抱着解決問題的態度。這種文化還會充分考慮本地化，比如荷蘭人甚至比美國人更直接，日本就比較含蓄，同樣一句話文化差異也可能帶來不一樣效果。信息透明，絕對信任，高管開會討論的內容不是一小撮人的信息優勢，全員都能看到，更奇葩的是公司季度報告也會提前拿出來公開討論，甚至發財報以後對股價有什麼影響也會分析。鼓勵大家去別家公司面試，隨時校準自己在人才市場的最高價位；……類似這樣的事兒，對國內絕大部分企業來講是天方夜譚。如果中國市場開放了，奈飛殺進來，狗在愛優騰的人才還不得扎堆往裏面鑽。最後總結，我也認爲比較理智，用哪種方式，還是要看行業，究竟是避免出錯的行業，還是尋求創新的行業。奈飛這種後者可能","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a0846323b4a4f9b76dd4cd37969cf31","width":"688","height":"917"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/335658120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2842,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":393107425,"gmtCreate":1606237773067,"gmtModify":1704964640208,"author":{"id":"3458972508430412","authorId":"3458972508430412","name":"Sachez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/145f3291ee4f995e07d50dc97277125d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458972508430412","idStr":"3458972508430412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/393107425","repostId":"1141617841","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141617841","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1606214041,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141617841?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2020-11-24 18:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Eve of Great Change! Morgan Stanley Heavy Report, Bullish on Tesla","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141617841","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"近日，$摩根士丹利$将$特斯拉$的股票评级上调为“增持”，并将对其价格水平的预测从360美元增至540美元，乐观估值更是高达1068美元，上涨142%，悲观估值也达到了250美元。其股价也一路走高，从18日到昨天收盘，上涨幅度达16%。促使他们做出这次调整的原因在于，摩根士丹利认为特斯拉已经极大突破了传统汽车公司的边界。重大商业模式转变即将到来，已经被外界评价为“估值过高”的特斯拉仍有更进一步的空间。","content":"<p>Recently,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>and increased its forecast for its price level from $360 to $540,<b>The optimistic valuation is as high as $1,068, up 142%</b>, the pessimistic valuation also reached $250. Its share price has also risen all the way, rising by 16% from the 18th to yesterday's close.</p><p>What prompted them to make this adjustment is that,<b>Morgan Stanley believes Tesla has greatly pushed the boundaries of traditional car companies. Tesla is a software company as well as a hardware company; It's a car company, and it's a tech company. Major business model shift on the horizon</b>Tesla, which has been evaluated as \"overvalued\" by the outside world, still has room to go further.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb1d18237681677f3b2f770851d9076f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"800\"></p><p>This time, Morgan Stanley adopted the SOTP valuation method to select appropriate valuation methods for different businesses operated by Tesla at the same time, and then obtained the total value according to the weighted summary of the shareholding ratio. Its specific valuation is shown in the following figure:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8e5e18a67d3c49a1585c2e7c0d41bba\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"503\"></p><p><b>01. The most promising business-network services</b></p><p>The opportunity for Internet of Vehicles is real. In Morgan Stanley's view, the development of Tesla Web Services is the primary driver for its stock to rise further. Its underlying valuation is $164/share, its optimistic valuation is $318/share, and its pessimistic valuation is $86/share.</p><p>Tesla's primary source of revenue will no longer be the purchase transaction of the car (volume × price), but rather the software and service earnings (platform users × ARPU) for after-sales people over the years they have used the product. After people get into a Tesla, they enter a unique ecosystem built by Tesla and continue to pay for the various services they enjoy.</p><p>Tesla currently offers a range of optional services, including automated driving (i.e. full autonomous driving or FSD packages), infotainment (i.e. advanced infotainment, including transportation, video streaming, music services, and more), performance upgrades (i.e. improved vehicle acceleration, improved battery range) and a range of other services (supercharging, maintenance packages, gaming, and more).</p><p>What these services affect is the user's experience per minute and per mile in the car. As people spend more time in their cars in the future, users are also actively using various services in their cars for quite a long time, and they are also more willing to pay for the use and upgrades of specific services.</p><p><b>Tesla itself has a relatively large and sticky user base, and users' reuse rate of its services is very high. These services can provide Tesla with a steady stream of high profits and cash flow</b>, and further improve user experience and platform stickiness. At the same time, the high stickiness and high willingness to pay customer base also means that Tesla is expected to generate considerable revenue from advertising cooperation.</p><p>And the important thing is,<b>Just as smartphones have become far more than a communication tool, Tesla has a lot of potential to disrupt the mobile market in ways people never foresaw.</b></p><p>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Hardware, for example, is key to Apple keeping users on its platform, but it makes a lot of profits by publishing and offering a range of services (cloud storage, gaming, insurance, Apple Pay, etc.).</p><p>The same goes for Tesla, which can lure users into its ecosystem with hardware and let them do a lot of additional consumption activities on various software services.</p><p>Moreover, its ability to link the different vehicles within its system together in an unprecedented tightness provides the possibility for the implementation of many of its services. Automated driving, charging, repairs, service upgrades, content and more will all be key profit sources for Tesla's web services.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e511c85c0657d7df1a266e19cb46c259\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"280\"></p><p>Tesla's advantage over Apple is that it can get 100% of the revenue from its self-developed FSD system without having to share it with others, which will bring Tesla very huge profits.</p><p>According to Morgan Stanley,<b>Tesla will have more than 20 million cars by 2030</b>Of which the penetration rate of active revenue-generating users will increase to 60% from around 35% in 2020. This implies a 38% CAGR for MAU (Monthly Active Users) from 4,650,000 in 2020 to 12 million in 2030, and its ARPU will increase to $100 per month ($1,200/year).</p><p>They also predict that Tesla services revenue will reach about $897 million in 2021, grow to $5 billion by 2025 and $14.5 billion by 2030. This expected growth rate is high, and its predictions of the growth potential in Tesla's network service model are also related to the rapid growth of Tesla vehicles on the road. Therefore, whether the high growth of car ownership can be achieved will be the key to the profitability scale of Tesla's network services.</p><p>Tesla recently raised the price of the FSD to $10,000 per unit, and many expect it to raise the price further in the near future. Tesla said it expects to launch a subscription model for FSD in 2021 and explore tiered pricing plans such as highway vs. city, commercial/retail, and monthly/per mile plans, which are obviously very profitable.</p><p>Although people don't buy FSD much in China, Musk insists that with the increase of automation, people will change their wishes, and FSD will also win Tesla more profit margins.</p><p><b>02. Tesla Energy and Tesla Insurance, which were included in the valuation range for the first time</b></p><p>Four years ago, Tesla unexpectedly bought Solarcity, and Morgan Stanley valued it at 0 at the time. But today is different from the past. Four years is enough to spawn many changes. Morgan Stanley has also given Tesla's energy business a positive valuation for the first time.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's basic valuation for Tesla's energy business is $12/share. Its optimistic valuation of $40/share is based on its compound growth rate of 20% and gross profit margin of 30% by 2030, while its pessimistic valuation of $5/share applies to the situation where the growth rate is capped at 10% and the gross profit margin is at most 20%.</p><p>Tesla Energy is mainly divided into two parts,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>Deployment (civil, commercial rooftop solar panels) and energy storage (Powerwall, Megapack). Morgan Stanley valued Tesla's business with reference to solar leaders SUNPOWER (SPWR) and Sunrun (RUN). Currently, the regular growth rate for the solar industry is in the 10%-15% range.</p><p>According to the year-to-date trend, Morgan Stanley predicts that Tesla will deploy nearly 180 megawatts of solar energy and 2.1 gigawatts of storage capacity in 2020, and its revenue will start at about $1.8 billion this year. Ten years later, this figure will be $7.4 billion. By 2040, the business will generate more than $20 billion in revenue and can grow at a CAGR of more than 13%.</p><p>The gross profit margin of Tesla's integrated energy business averaged just over 12% in 2018 and 2019, and the gross profit margin in 2020 dropped significantly due to the COVID pandemic, but it remains positive, and this value is on track to return to 12% in 2022. By 2025, Tesla's gross profit margin will rival that of industry giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPWR\">SunPower</a>The level of.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ca052eecff10232fe830f25cc593030\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"402\"></p><p>Tesla has already launched its insurance business in California, and it has been a big success. Tesla offers interest rates of up to 20%-30% to its owners, and the business takes a monthly payment model, which is convenient and has no hidden extra charges. Tesla plans to expand the business across the United States next year.</p><p>Tesla's entry will disrupt the global auto insurance market that is up to $500 billion. It is superior to the traditional insurance industry in many aspects. It can not only accurately and remotely process the data information of vehicles and drivers in real time, but also has the advantages of light assets and low cost DTC distribution mode, and at the same time can provide consumers with superior and frictionless service experience.</p><p>The number of Tesla vehicles worldwide was 1.3 million during the year, and that number will increase to 2.1 million in 2021. We assume a 0.5% penetration rate in its insurance business next year, a net premium of just over $1,000 per policy, and its revenue will also reach $10 million.</p><p>Assuming that by 2030, the number of Tesla cars increases to 20 million and Tesla Insurance's share reaches 18%, then 36 million policyholders will each pay $1,105 in premiums, and Tesla's net premium income will be about $4 billion.</p><p>The Morgan Stanley insurance team notes that the industry average loss rate is typically around 75% with a rate of 25%. Progressive leads the industry with a 70% loss rate, 21% rate. Progressive can currently achieve a 10% underwriting margin, which Tesla may reach in 2026.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's underlying valuation for Tesla's insurance business is $15/share, and its pessimistic valuation is $0. Achieving an optimistic valuation of $33/share is premised on its ability to achieve 50% penetration in 2030 (100% in 2040) and its ability to earn an underwriting margin of up to 18%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5c94bb5023a8eaeb34ecca84bd30887\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"586\"></p><p><b>03. Tesla Mobility/Ride-Sharing Business</b></p><p>Subject to legal, ethical and technical constraints, the spread of Level 5 driverless development may not be as fast as many people expect. But Morgan Stanley thinks Tesla can develop a \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>\"Or mobile, ride-sharing businesses, competing with the likes of Uber and Lyft.</p><p>Morgan Stanley gives the business a valuation of $38/share and expects Tesla to have about 500,000 (2.3%) vehicles used in the business in 2030, generating $54 billion in revenue and achieving an operating margin of 14.7%. At that time, the business will account for 19% of Tesla's total revenue and 15% of its pre-tax profits. Its optimistic valuation is $91/share and its pessimistic valuation is $0.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fc7c1bd36210e78c2e2b1e91a1b7e34\" tg-width=\"810\" tg-height=\"505\"></p><p><b>Core Automotive DCF Business</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley gave Tesla's core automotive DCF business a base valuation of $254/share, an optimistic valuation of $462/share and a pessimistic valuation of $130/share.</p><p>The basis of the above expectation is that in 2030, Tesla will increase its annual production to 3.8 million vehicles, and its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) will contract to 18.7%. Its core gross profit margin will also decline, as Tesla is likely to adopt ASP price reduction strategies to increase market share and promote the use of electric vehicles.</p><p>Additionally, Full Self-Driving (FSD) will serve as a subscribable business in the segment as a source of recurring revenue for Tesla.</p><p><b>Electric vehicle battery/powertrain system supply business</b></p><p>Tesla's battery business will be an important driver for the company's future development. Morgan Stanley believes its optimistic valuation is as high as $124/share, the underlying valuation is $58/share, and the pessimistic valuation is also $29/share.</p><p>Its assumptions are as follows: by 2030, its third-party transaction volume will be approximately 2.5 million units in addition to the 3.8 million reserved. Its batteries supplied to third parties can output 200GWh (11.9% of the total market volume of 1.7TWh).</p><p>Not only can the electricity generate $106 per kilowatt-hour for Tesla, but its additional powertrain components (electric motors, inverters, BMS, etc.) can also generate an additional $8,000 per unit, bringing the total to $41 billion. Its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization in 2030 are expected to be $8.2 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21d8e3aa5c3b89f85a1b9688b17a4f54\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"464\"></p><p>Tesla has long been seen as a SOTP story with positive synergies. From transportation and energy to insurance and network services, we have witnessed Tesla's expanding business territory and will continue to look forward to its endless future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e70eddb15bfa55d72005c109ed7e3ff\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"396\"></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Eve of Great Change! Morgan Stanley Heavy Report, Bullish on Tesla</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Eve of Great Change! Morgan Stanley Heavy Report, Bullish on Tesla\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-11-24 18:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>and increased its forecast for its price level from $360 to $540,<b>The optimistic valuation is as high as $1,068, up 142%</b>, the pessimistic valuation also reached $250. Its share price has also risen all the way, rising by 16% from the 18th to yesterday's close.</p><p>What prompted them to make this adjustment is that,<b>Morgan Stanley believes Tesla has greatly pushed the boundaries of traditional car companies. Tesla is a software company as well as a hardware company; It's a car company, and it's a tech company. Major business model shift on the horizon</b>Tesla, which has been evaluated as \"overvalued\" by the outside world, still has room to go further.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb1d18237681677f3b2f770851d9076f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"800\"></p><p>This time, Morgan Stanley adopted the SOTP valuation method to select appropriate valuation methods for different businesses operated by Tesla at the same time, and then obtained the total value according to the weighted summary of the shareholding ratio. Its specific valuation is shown in the following figure:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8e5e18a67d3c49a1585c2e7c0d41bba\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"503\"></p><p><b>01. The most promising business-network services</b></p><p>The opportunity for Internet of Vehicles is real. In Morgan Stanley's view, the development of Tesla Web Services is the primary driver for its stock to rise further. Its underlying valuation is $164/share, its optimistic valuation is $318/share, and its pessimistic valuation is $86/share.</p><p>Tesla's primary source of revenue will no longer be the purchase transaction of the car (volume × price), but rather the software and service earnings (platform users × ARPU) for after-sales people over the years they have used the product. After people get into a Tesla, they enter a unique ecosystem built by Tesla and continue to pay for the various services they enjoy.</p><p>Tesla currently offers a range of optional services, including automated driving (i.e. full autonomous driving or FSD packages), infotainment (i.e. advanced infotainment, including transportation, video streaming, music services, and more), performance upgrades (i.e. improved vehicle acceleration, improved battery range) and a range of other services (supercharging, maintenance packages, gaming, and more).</p><p>What these services affect is the user's experience per minute and per mile in the car. As people spend more time in their cars in the future, users are also actively using various services in their cars for quite a long time, and they are also more willing to pay for the use and upgrades of specific services.</p><p><b>Tesla itself has a relatively large and sticky user base, and users' reuse rate of its services is very high. These services can provide Tesla with a steady stream of high profits and cash flow</b>, and further improve user experience and platform stickiness. At the same time, the high stickiness and high willingness to pay customer base also means that Tesla is expected to generate considerable revenue from advertising cooperation.</p><p>And the important thing is,<b>Just as smartphones have become far more than a communication tool, Tesla has a lot of potential to disrupt the mobile market in ways people never foresaw.</b></p><p>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Hardware, for example, is key to Apple keeping users on its platform, but it makes a lot of profits by publishing and offering a range of services (cloud storage, gaming, insurance, Apple Pay, etc.).</p><p>The same goes for Tesla, which can lure users into its ecosystem with hardware and let them do a lot of additional consumption activities on various software services.</p><p>Moreover, its ability to link the different vehicles within its system together in an unprecedented tightness provides the possibility for the implementation of many of its services. Automated driving, charging, repairs, service upgrades, content and more will all be key profit sources for Tesla's web services.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e511c85c0657d7df1a266e19cb46c259\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"280\"></p><p>Tesla's advantage over Apple is that it can get 100% of the revenue from its self-developed FSD system without having to share it with others, which will bring Tesla very huge profits.</p><p>According to Morgan Stanley,<b>Tesla will have more than 20 million cars by 2030</b>Of which the penetration rate of active revenue-generating users will increase to 60% from around 35% in 2020. This implies a 38% CAGR for MAU (Monthly Active Users) from 4,650,000 in 2020 to 12 million in 2030, and its ARPU will increase to $100 per month ($1,200/year).</p><p>They also predict that Tesla services revenue will reach about $897 million in 2021, grow to $5 billion by 2025 and $14.5 billion by 2030. This expected growth rate is high, and its predictions of the growth potential in Tesla's network service model are also related to the rapid growth of Tesla vehicles on the road. Therefore, whether the high growth of car ownership can be achieved will be the key to the profitability scale of Tesla's network services.</p><p>Tesla recently raised the price of the FSD to $10,000 per unit, and many expect it to raise the price further in the near future. Tesla said it expects to launch a subscription model for FSD in 2021 and explore tiered pricing plans such as highway vs. city, commercial/retail, and monthly/per mile plans, which are obviously very profitable.</p><p>Although people don't buy FSD much in China, Musk insists that with the increase of automation, people will change their wishes, and FSD will also win Tesla more profit margins.</p><p><b>02. Tesla Energy and Tesla Insurance, which were included in the valuation range for the first time</b></p><p>Four years ago, Tesla unexpectedly bought Solarcity, and Morgan Stanley valued it at 0 at the time. But today is different from the past. Four years is enough to spawn many changes. Morgan Stanley has also given Tesla's energy business a positive valuation for the first time.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's basic valuation for Tesla's energy business is $12/share. Its optimistic valuation of $40/share is based on its compound growth rate of 20% and gross profit margin of 30% by 2030, while its pessimistic valuation of $5/share applies to the situation where the growth rate is capped at 10% and the gross profit margin is at most 20%.</p><p>Tesla Energy is mainly divided into two parts,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>Deployment (civil, commercial rooftop solar panels) and energy storage (Powerwall, Megapack). Morgan Stanley valued Tesla's business with reference to solar leaders SUNPOWER (SPWR) and Sunrun (RUN). Currently, the regular growth rate for the solar industry is in the 10%-15% range.</p><p>According to the year-to-date trend, Morgan Stanley predicts that Tesla will deploy nearly 180 megawatts of solar energy and 2.1 gigawatts of storage capacity in 2020, and its revenue will start at about $1.8 billion this year. Ten years later, this figure will be $7.4 billion. By 2040, the business will generate more than $20 billion in revenue and can grow at a CAGR of more than 13%.</p><p>The gross profit margin of Tesla's integrated energy business averaged just over 12% in 2018 and 2019, and the gross profit margin in 2020 dropped significantly due to the COVID pandemic, but it remains positive, and this value is on track to return to 12% in 2022. By 2025, Tesla's gross profit margin will rival that of industry giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPWR\">SunPower</a>The level of.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ca052eecff10232fe830f25cc593030\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"402\"></p><p>Tesla has already launched its insurance business in California, and it has been a big success. Tesla offers interest rates of up to 20%-30% to its owners, and the business takes a monthly payment model, which is convenient and has no hidden extra charges. Tesla plans to expand the business across the United States next year.</p><p>Tesla's entry will disrupt the global auto insurance market that is up to $500 billion. It is superior to the traditional insurance industry in many aspects. It can not only accurately and remotely process the data information of vehicles and drivers in real time, but also has the advantages of light assets and low cost DTC distribution mode, and at the same time can provide consumers with superior and frictionless service experience.</p><p>The number of Tesla vehicles worldwide was 1.3 million during the year, and that number will increase to 2.1 million in 2021. We assume a 0.5% penetration rate in its insurance business next year, a net premium of just over $1,000 per policy, and its revenue will also reach $10 million.</p><p>Assuming that by 2030, the number of Tesla cars increases to 20 million and Tesla Insurance's share reaches 18%, then 36 million policyholders will each pay $1,105 in premiums, and Tesla's net premium income will be about $4 billion.</p><p>The Morgan Stanley insurance team notes that the industry average loss rate is typically around 75% with a rate of 25%. Progressive leads the industry with a 70% loss rate, 21% rate. Progressive can currently achieve a 10% underwriting margin, which Tesla may reach in 2026.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's underlying valuation for Tesla's insurance business is $15/share, and its pessimistic valuation is $0. Achieving an optimistic valuation of $33/share is premised on its ability to achieve 50% penetration in 2030 (100% in 2040) and its ability to earn an underwriting margin of up to 18%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5c94bb5023a8eaeb34ecca84bd30887\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"586\"></p><p><b>03. Tesla Mobility/Ride-Sharing Business</b></p><p>Subject to legal, ethical and technical constraints, the spread of Level 5 driverless development may not be as fast as many people expect. But Morgan Stanley thinks Tesla can develop a \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>\"Or mobile, ride-sharing businesses, competing with the likes of Uber and Lyft.</p><p>Morgan Stanley gives the business a valuation of $38/share and expects Tesla to have about 500,000 (2.3%) vehicles used in the business in 2030, generating $54 billion in revenue and achieving an operating margin of 14.7%. At that time, the business will account for 19% of Tesla's total revenue and 15% of its pre-tax profits. Its optimistic valuation is $91/share and its pessimistic valuation is $0.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fc7c1bd36210e78c2e2b1e91a1b7e34\" tg-width=\"810\" tg-height=\"505\"></p><p><b>Core Automotive DCF Business</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley gave Tesla's core automotive DCF business a base valuation of $254/share, an optimistic valuation of $462/share and a pessimistic valuation of $130/share.</p><p>The basis of the above expectation is that in 2030, Tesla will increase its annual production to 3.8 million vehicles, and its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) will contract to 18.7%. Its core gross profit margin will also decline, as Tesla is likely to adopt ASP price reduction strategies to increase market share and promote the use of electric vehicles.</p><p>Additionally, Full Self-Driving (FSD) will serve as a subscribable business in the segment as a source of recurring revenue for Tesla.</p><p><b>Electric vehicle battery/powertrain system supply business</b></p><p>Tesla's battery business will be an important driver for the company's future development. Morgan Stanley believes its optimistic valuation is as high as $124/share, the underlying valuation is $58/share, and the pessimistic valuation is also $29/share.</p><p>Its assumptions are as follows: by 2030, its third-party transaction volume will be approximately 2.5 million units in addition to the 3.8 million reserved. Its batteries supplied to third parties can output 200GWh (11.9% of the total market volume of 1.7TWh).</p><p>Not only can the electricity generate $106 per kilowatt-hour for Tesla, but its additional powertrain components (electric motors, inverters, BMS, etc.) can also generate an additional $8,000 per unit, bringing the total to $41 billion. Its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization in 2030 are expected to be $8.2 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21d8e3aa5c3b89f85a1b9688b17a4f54\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"464\"></p><p>Tesla has long been seen as a SOTP story with positive synergies. From transportation and energy to insurance and network services, we have witnessed Tesla's expanding business territory and will continue to look forward to its endless future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e70eddb15bfa55d72005c109ed7e3ff\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"396\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/znRTDA8hd74FmNZxGHazbg\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf056c93b86b4b78405c574b04f01c45","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/znRTDA8hd74FmNZxGHazbg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1141617841","content_text":"近日，摩根士丹利将特斯拉的股票评级上调为“增持”，并将对其价格水平的预测从360美元增至540美元，乐观估值更是高达1068美元，上涨142%，悲观估值也达到了250美元。其股价也一路走高，从18日到昨天收盘，上涨幅度达16%。促使他们做出这次调整的原因在于，摩根士丹利认为特斯拉已经极大突破了传统汽车公司的边界。特斯拉是软件公司，也是硬件公司；是汽车公司，也是科技公司。重大商业模式转变即将到来，已经被外界评价为“估值过高”的特斯拉仍有更进一步的空间。此次，摩根士丹利采用SOTP估值法，将特斯拉同时经营的不同业务分别选择合适的估值方法估值，再根据持股比例加权汇总得出总价值。其具体估值情况如下图所示：01、最有前景的业务——网络服务车联网的机会是实实在在的。在摩根士丹利看来，特斯拉网络服务的发展是使其股票进一步上涨的首要动力。其基础估值为164美元/股，乐观估值318美元/股，悲观估值86美元/股。特斯拉的主要收入来源将不再是汽车的购买交易（销量×价格），而在于售后人们在使用该产品的数年里的软件和服务收益（平台用户×ARPU）。人们在坐进一辆特斯拉后，就会进入一个由特斯拉打造的独特生态系统，并持续为其享受的各类服务付费。特斯拉目前提供了一系列可选服务，包括自动化驾驶（即全自动驾驶或FSD套餐）、信息娱乐（即高级信息娱乐，包括交通、视频流、音乐服务等）、性能升级（即提高车辆加速，改进的电池范围）和一系列其他服务（增压、维护包、游戏等）。这些服务影响的是用户在车内每分钟、每里程的体验。随着人们未来在车里度过的时间不断延长，用户活跃使用车内各种服务的时间也相当长，他们也更愿意为特定服务的使用和升级买单。特斯拉本身就拥有较为庞大的、粘性相对较高的用户群，用户对于其服务的重复使用率非常高。这些服务能够为特斯拉提供源源不断的高额利润和现金流，并进一步改善用户体验和平台粘性。同时，高粘性、付费意愿较高的客户群也意味着特斯拉有望凭借广告合作获得可观的收入。很重要的一点是，就像智能手机已经远远不止一个通讯工具一样，特斯拉有很大潜能以人们不曾预见的方式颠覆移动市场。以苹果为例，硬件是苹果将用户保留在其平台上的关键所在，但它通过发布和提供一系列服务（云存储、游戏、保险、苹果支付等）获得了大量的利润。特斯拉也是如此，它可以凭借硬件吸引用户进入其生态系统，并让他们对各类软件服务进行大量的附加消费活动。此外，它能将其系统内的不同车辆空前紧密地联系在一起，这也为其许多服务的实现提供了可能性。自动化驾驶、充电、维修、服务升级、内容等都将成为特斯拉网络服务的关键利润来源。特斯拉相对于苹果的优势则在于，它可以从其自主开发的FSD系统中获得100%的收入，而不必与他人分成，这将给特斯拉带来非常庞大的利润。摩根士丹利认为，到2030年，特斯拉的汽车保有量将超过2000万辆，其中活跃创收用户的渗透率将从2020年的35%左右增至60%。这意味着MAU（每月活跃用户）的复合年增长率为38%，从2020年的465000万增长到2030年的1200万，其ARPU将增至每月100美元（1200美元/年）。他们还预测，特斯拉服务收入将在2021年达到约8.97亿美元，到2025年将增至50亿美元，到2030年将达到145亿美元。这一预期增长率很高，而其对于特斯拉网络服务模式中增长潜力的预测也都与特斯拉汽车在道路上的快速增长有关。因此，能否实现汽车保有量的高增长将是特斯拉网络服务盈利规模的关键。特斯拉最近将FSD的价格提高到每台1万美元，许多人预计其会在不久的将来进一步提高价格。特斯拉表示，预计将在2021年推出FSD的订阅模式，并探索分层定价方案，如高速公路与城市、商业/零售和月度/每英里计划，这显然是非常有利可图的。尽管在中国，人们对FSD并不怎么买账，但马斯克坚称随着自动化程度的提高，人们将改变他们的意愿，FSD也将给特斯拉赢得更大的利润空间。02、首次被纳入估值范围的特斯拉能源和特斯拉保险四年前，特斯拉出乎市场预料地买入了Solarcity，摩根士丹利当时对它做出了0的估值。但今时不同往日，四年的时间足以催生很多变化，摩根士丹利也第一次给予了特斯拉能源业务一个正估值。摩根士丹利对于特斯拉能源业务的基本估值为12美元/股。其乐观估值40美元/股建立在其2030年将达到20%的复合增长率和30%的毛利率的基础上而，悲观估值5美元/股则适用于增长率10%封顶、毛利率至多20%的情形。特斯拉能源主要分为两块，太阳能部署（民用、商用屋顶太阳能板）和能源储存（Powerwall、Megapack）。摩根士丹利参照太阳能领域的领军企业SUNPOWER(SPWR)和Sunrun(RUN)对特斯拉的该项业务进行估值。目前，太阳能行业的常规增长率在10%-15%范围内。摩根士丹利根据年初至今的趋势预测道，特斯拉在2020年部署近180兆瓦的太阳能和2.1千兆瓦的存储容量，本年度收入起点在18亿美元左右，十年后这个数字将会是74亿美元。至2040年，该业务收入将超过200亿美元，复合年增长率可高于13%。2018年和2019年，特斯拉能源综合业务的毛利率平均略高于12%，2020年的毛利率由于新冠疫情大幅下降，但仍为正值，这一数值有望在2022年重回12%。到2025年，特斯拉的毛利率将达到能够比肩行业巨头SunPower的水平。特斯拉目前已经在加利福尼亚州推行保险业务，并且大获成功。特斯拉为其车主提供高达20%-30%的利率，该业务采取月付模式，非常便捷，且没有隐藏的额外收费。特斯拉计划在明年将该业务推广至全美。特斯拉的入场将颠覆规模高达5000亿美元的全球汽车保险市场。它在许多方面都优于传统保险行业，其不但能够做到实时对车辆、驾驶员等数据信息的精确远程处理，还有着轻资产和低成本的DTC分销模式的优势，同时能够为消费者提供优越的、无摩擦的服务体验。本年度特斯拉汽车的全球保有量为130万辆，2021年该数字将增至210万辆。我们假设明年其保险业务的渗透率为0.5%，每份保单的净保费略高于1000美元，其收入也将达到1000万美元。假定到2030年，特斯拉汽车保有量增至2000万辆，特斯拉保险的份额达到18%，那么3600万投保人每人将付出1105美元的保费，特斯拉的净保费收入约为40亿美元。摩根士丹利保险团队指出，行业平均损失率通常在75%左右，费率为25%。Progressive以70%的损失率、21%的费率引领行业。Progressive目前可以实现10%的承保利润率，而特斯拉或将在2026年达到这一水平。摩根士丹利对于特斯拉保险业务的基础估值为15美元/股，悲观估值为0美元。实现乐观估值33美元/股的前提是其能够在2030年达到50%的渗透率（在2040年实现100%），并能够获得高达18%的承保利润率。03、特斯拉移动/汽车共乘业务受法律、道德和技术方面的制约，第5级无人驾驶发展的普及可能难以像许多人所期望的那么快。但摩根士丹利认为特斯拉能够在这个过渡区间发展一种“机器人”或移动、汽车共乘业务，与Uber和Lyft等公司一争高下。摩根士丹利赋予该项业务38美元/股的估值，预计特斯拉将在2030年有约50万辆（2.3%）汽车用于该业务，产生540亿美元的收入，并实现14.7%的运营利润率。到时候，该业务将占特斯拉总收入的19%，税前利润的15%。其乐观估值为91美元/股，悲观估值0美元。04、核心汽车DCF业务摩根士丹利对于特斯拉的核心汽车DCF业务给予了254美元/股的基础估值，乐观估值462美元/股，悲观估值130美元/股。以上预期的基础是在2030年，特斯拉汽车年产量将增至380万辆，息税折旧及摊销前利润率（EBITDA）将收缩到18.7%。其核心毛利率也将下降，因为特斯拉很有可能采取ASP降价策略来增加市场份额，推广电动汽车的使用。此外，全自动驾驶(FSD)将作为细分市场中的可订阅业务，成为特斯拉经常性收入的来源。05、电动汽车电池/动力总成系统供应业务特斯拉的电池业务将成为公司未来发展的重要驱动力。摩根士丹利认为其乐观估值高达124美元/股，基础估值58美元/股，悲观估值也有29美元/股。其假设如下：到2030年，除自留的380万之外，其第三方交易量约为250万单位。其供应给第三方的电池可输出200GWh（占市场总量1.7TWh的11.9%）。不仅每千瓦时电可以为特斯拉带来106美元的收入，其额外动力系统组件（电动马达、逆变器、BMS等）也可带来每单位8千美元的额外收入，总收入可达410亿美元。2030年其息税折旧摊销前利润被预计为82亿美元。长期以来，特斯拉一直被视为一个发挥了积极协同效应的SOTP故事。从交通、能源到保险、网络服务，我们见证了特斯拉不断扩大的商业版图，也将继续期待它无限可能的未来。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3527667803686145","idStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","text":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","html":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":393107425,"gmtCreate":1606237773067,"gmtModify":1704964640208,"author":{"id":"3458972508430412","authorId":"3458972508430412","name":"Sachez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/145f3291ee4f995e07d50dc97277125d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458972508430412","idStr":"3458972508430412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/393107425","repostId":"1141617841","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141617841","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1606214041,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141617841?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2020-11-24 18:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Eve of Great Change! Morgan Stanley Heavy Report, Bullish on Tesla","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141617841","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"近日，$摩根士丹利$将$特斯拉$的股票评级上调为“增持”，并将对其价格水平的预测从360美元增至540美元，乐观估值更是高达1068美元，上涨142%，悲观估值也达到了250美元。其股价也一路走高，从18日到昨天收盘，上涨幅度达16%。促使他们做出这次调整的原因在于，摩根士丹利认为特斯拉已经极大突破了传统汽车公司的边界。重大商业模式转变即将到来，已经被外界评价为“估值过高”的特斯拉仍有更进一步的空间。","content":"<p>Recently,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>and increased its forecast for its price level from $360 to $540,<b>The optimistic valuation is as high as $1,068, up 142%</b>, the pessimistic valuation also reached $250. Its share price has also risen all the way, rising by 16% from the 18th to yesterday's close.</p><p>What prompted them to make this adjustment is that,<b>Morgan Stanley believes Tesla has greatly pushed the boundaries of traditional car companies. Tesla is a software company as well as a hardware company; It's a car company, and it's a tech company. Major business model shift on the horizon</b>Tesla, which has been evaluated as \"overvalued\" by the outside world, still has room to go further.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb1d18237681677f3b2f770851d9076f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"800\"></p><p>This time, Morgan Stanley adopted the SOTP valuation method to select appropriate valuation methods for different businesses operated by Tesla at the same time, and then obtained the total value according to the weighted summary of the shareholding ratio. Its specific valuation is shown in the following figure:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8e5e18a67d3c49a1585c2e7c0d41bba\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"503\"></p><p><b>01. The most promising business-network services</b></p><p>The opportunity for Internet of Vehicles is real. In Morgan Stanley's view, the development of Tesla Web Services is the primary driver for its stock to rise further. Its underlying valuation is $164/share, its optimistic valuation is $318/share, and its pessimistic valuation is $86/share.</p><p>Tesla's primary source of revenue will no longer be the purchase transaction of the car (volume × price), but rather the software and service earnings (platform users × ARPU) for after-sales people over the years they have used the product. After people get into a Tesla, they enter a unique ecosystem built by Tesla and continue to pay for the various services they enjoy.</p><p>Tesla currently offers a range of optional services, including automated driving (i.e. full autonomous driving or FSD packages), infotainment (i.e. advanced infotainment, including transportation, video streaming, music services, and more), performance upgrades (i.e. improved vehicle acceleration, improved battery range) and a range of other services (supercharging, maintenance packages, gaming, and more).</p><p>What these services affect is the user's experience per minute and per mile in the car. As people spend more time in their cars in the future, users are also actively using various services in their cars for quite a long time, and they are also more willing to pay for the use and upgrades of specific services.</p><p><b>Tesla itself has a relatively large and sticky user base, and users' reuse rate of its services is very high. These services can provide Tesla with a steady stream of high profits and cash flow</b>, and further improve user experience and platform stickiness. At the same time, the high stickiness and high willingness to pay customer base also means that Tesla is expected to generate considerable revenue from advertising cooperation.</p><p>And the important thing is,<b>Just as smartphones have become far more than a communication tool, Tesla has a lot of potential to disrupt the mobile market in ways people never foresaw.</b></p><p>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Hardware, for example, is key to Apple keeping users on its platform, but it makes a lot of profits by publishing and offering a range of services (cloud storage, gaming, insurance, Apple Pay, etc.).</p><p>The same goes for Tesla, which can lure users into its ecosystem with hardware and let them do a lot of additional consumption activities on various software services.</p><p>Moreover, its ability to link the different vehicles within its system together in an unprecedented tightness provides the possibility for the implementation of many of its services. Automated driving, charging, repairs, service upgrades, content and more will all be key profit sources for Tesla's web services.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e511c85c0657d7df1a266e19cb46c259\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"280\"></p><p>Tesla's advantage over Apple is that it can get 100% of the revenue from its self-developed FSD system without having to share it with others, which will bring Tesla very huge profits.</p><p>According to Morgan Stanley,<b>Tesla will have more than 20 million cars by 2030</b>Of which the penetration rate of active revenue-generating users will increase to 60% from around 35% in 2020. This implies a 38% CAGR for MAU (Monthly Active Users) from 4,650,000 in 2020 to 12 million in 2030, and its ARPU will increase to $100 per month ($1,200/year).</p><p>They also predict that Tesla services revenue will reach about $897 million in 2021, grow to $5 billion by 2025 and $14.5 billion by 2030. This expected growth rate is high, and its predictions of the growth potential in Tesla's network service model are also related to the rapid growth of Tesla vehicles on the road. Therefore, whether the high growth of car ownership can be achieved will be the key to the profitability scale of Tesla's network services.</p><p>Tesla recently raised the price of the FSD to $10,000 per unit, and many expect it to raise the price further in the near future. Tesla said it expects to launch a subscription model for FSD in 2021 and explore tiered pricing plans such as highway vs. city, commercial/retail, and monthly/per mile plans, which are obviously very profitable.</p><p>Although people don't buy FSD much in China, Musk insists that with the increase of automation, people will change their wishes, and FSD will also win Tesla more profit margins.</p><p><b>02. Tesla Energy and Tesla Insurance, which were included in the valuation range for the first time</b></p><p>Four years ago, Tesla unexpectedly bought Solarcity, and Morgan Stanley valued it at 0 at the time. But today is different from the past. Four years is enough to spawn many changes. Morgan Stanley has also given Tesla's energy business a positive valuation for the first time.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's basic valuation for Tesla's energy business is $12/share. Its optimistic valuation of $40/share is based on its compound growth rate of 20% and gross profit margin of 30% by 2030, while its pessimistic valuation of $5/share applies to the situation where the growth rate is capped at 10% and the gross profit margin is at most 20%.</p><p>Tesla Energy is mainly divided into two parts,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>Deployment (civil, commercial rooftop solar panels) and energy storage (Powerwall, Megapack). Morgan Stanley valued Tesla's business with reference to solar leaders SUNPOWER (SPWR) and Sunrun (RUN). Currently, the regular growth rate for the solar industry is in the 10%-15% range.</p><p>According to the year-to-date trend, Morgan Stanley predicts that Tesla will deploy nearly 180 megawatts of solar energy and 2.1 gigawatts of storage capacity in 2020, and its revenue will start at about $1.8 billion this year. Ten years later, this figure will be $7.4 billion. By 2040, the business will generate more than $20 billion in revenue and can grow at a CAGR of more than 13%.</p><p>The gross profit margin of Tesla's integrated energy business averaged just over 12% in 2018 and 2019, and the gross profit margin in 2020 dropped significantly due to the COVID pandemic, but it remains positive, and this value is on track to return to 12% in 2022. By 2025, Tesla's gross profit margin will rival that of industry giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPWR\">SunPower</a>The level of.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ca052eecff10232fe830f25cc593030\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"402\"></p><p>Tesla has already launched its insurance business in California, and it has been a big success. Tesla offers interest rates of up to 20%-30% to its owners, and the business takes a monthly payment model, which is convenient and has no hidden extra charges. Tesla plans to expand the business across the United States next year.</p><p>Tesla's entry will disrupt the global auto insurance market that is up to $500 billion. It is superior to the traditional insurance industry in many aspects. It can not only accurately and remotely process the data information of vehicles and drivers in real time, but also has the advantages of light assets and low cost DTC distribution mode, and at the same time can provide consumers with superior and frictionless service experience.</p><p>The number of Tesla vehicles worldwide was 1.3 million during the year, and that number will increase to 2.1 million in 2021. We assume a 0.5% penetration rate in its insurance business next year, a net premium of just over $1,000 per policy, and its revenue will also reach $10 million.</p><p>Assuming that by 2030, the number of Tesla cars increases to 20 million and Tesla Insurance's share reaches 18%, then 36 million policyholders will each pay $1,105 in premiums, and Tesla's net premium income will be about $4 billion.</p><p>The Morgan Stanley insurance team notes that the industry average loss rate is typically around 75% with a rate of 25%. Progressive leads the industry with a 70% loss rate, 21% rate. Progressive can currently achieve a 10% underwriting margin, which Tesla may reach in 2026.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's underlying valuation for Tesla's insurance business is $15/share, and its pessimistic valuation is $0. Achieving an optimistic valuation of $33/share is premised on its ability to achieve 50% penetration in 2030 (100% in 2040) and its ability to earn an underwriting margin of up to 18%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5c94bb5023a8eaeb34ecca84bd30887\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"586\"></p><p><b>03. Tesla Mobility/Ride-Sharing Business</b></p><p>Subject to legal, ethical and technical constraints, the spread of Level 5 driverless development may not be as fast as many people expect. But Morgan Stanley thinks Tesla can develop a \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>\"Or mobile, ride-sharing businesses, competing with the likes of Uber and Lyft.</p><p>Morgan Stanley gives the business a valuation of $38/share and expects Tesla to have about 500,000 (2.3%) vehicles used in the business in 2030, generating $54 billion in revenue and achieving an operating margin of 14.7%. At that time, the business will account for 19% of Tesla's total revenue and 15% of its pre-tax profits. Its optimistic valuation is $91/share and its pessimistic valuation is $0.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fc7c1bd36210e78c2e2b1e91a1b7e34\" tg-width=\"810\" tg-height=\"505\"></p><p><b>Core Automotive DCF Business</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley gave Tesla's core automotive DCF business a base valuation of $254/share, an optimistic valuation of $462/share and a pessimistic valuation of $130/share.</p><p>The basis of the above expectation is that in 2030, Tesla will increase its annual production to 3.8 million vehicles, and its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) will contract to 18.7%. Its core gross profit margin will also decline, as Tesla is likely to adopt ASP price reduction strategies to increase market share and promote the use of electric vehicles.</p><p>Additionally, Full Self-Driving (FSD) will serve as a subscribable business in the segment as a source of recurring revenue for Tesla.</p><p><b>Electric vehicle battery/powertrain system supply business</b></p><p>Tesla's battery business will be an important driver for the company's future development. Morgan Stanley believes its optimistic valuation is as high as $124/share, the underlying valuation is $58/share, and the pessimistic valuation is also $29/share.</p><p>Its assumptions are as follows: by 2030, its third-party transaction volume will be approximately 2.5 million units in addition to the 3.8 million reserved. Its batteries supplied to third parties can output 200GWh (11.9% of the total market volume of 1.7TWh).</p><p>Not only can the electricity generate $106 per kilowatt-hour for Tesla, but its additional powertrain components (electric motors, inverters, BMS, etc.) can also generate an additional $8,000 per unit, bringing the total to $41 billion. Its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization in 2030 are expected to be $8.2 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21d8e3aa5c3b89f85a1b9688b17a4f54\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"464\"></p><p>Tesla has long been seen as a SOTP story with positive synergies. From transportation and energy to insurance and network services, we have witnessed Tesla's expanding business territory and will continue to look forward to its endless future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e70eddb15bfa55d72005c109ed7e3ff\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"396\"></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Eve of Great Change! Morgan Stanley Heavy Report, Bullish on Tesla</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Eve of Great Change! Morgan Stanley Heavy Report, Bullish on Tesla\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-11-24 18:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>and increased its forecast for its price level from $360 to $540,<b>The optimistic valuation is as high as $1,068, up 142%</b>, the pessimistic valuation also reached $250. Its share price has also risen all the way, rising by 16% from the 18th to yesterday's close.</p><p>What prompted them to make this adjustment is that,<b>Morgan Stanley believes Tesla has greatly pushed the boundaries of traditional car companies. Tesla is a software company as well as a hardware company; It's a car company, and it's a tech company. Major business model shift on the horizon</b>Tesla, which has been evaluated as \"overvalued\" by the outside world, still has room to go further.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb1d18237681677f3b2f770851d9076f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"800\"></p><p>This time, Morgan Stanley adopted the SOTP valuation method to select appropriate valuation methods for different businesses operated by Tesla at the same time, and then obtained the total value according to the weighted summary of the shareholding ratio. Its specific valuation is shown in the following figure:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8e5e18a67d3c49a1585c2e7c0d41bba\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"503\"></p><p><b>01. The most promising business-network services</b></p><p>The opportunity for Internet of Vehicles is real. In Morgan Stanley's view, the development of Tesla Web Services is the primary driver for its stock to rise further. Its underlying valuation is $164/share, its optimistic valuation is $318/share, and its pessimistic valuation is $86/share.</p><p>Tesla's primary source of revenue will no longer be the purchase transaction of the car (volume × price), but rather the software and service earnings (platform users × ARPU) for after-sales people over the years they have used the product. After people get into a Tesla, they enter a unique ecosystem built by Tesla and continue to pay for the various services they enjoy.</p><p>Tesla currently offers a range of optional services, including automated driving (i.e. full autonomous driving or FSD packages), infotainment (i.e. advanced infotainment, including transportation, video streaming, music services, and more), performance upgrades (i.e. improved vehicle acceleration, improved battery range) and a range of other services (supercharging, maintenance packages, gaming, and more).</p><p>What these services affect is the user's experience per minute and per mile in the car. As people spend more time in their cars in the future, users are also actively using various services in their cars for quite a long time, and they are also more willing to pay for the use and upgrades of specific services.</p><p><b>Tesla itself has a relatively large and sticky user base, and users' reuse rate of its services is very high. These services can provide Tesla with a steady stream of high profits and cash flow</b>, and further improve user experience and platform stickiness. At the same time, the high stickiness and high willingness to pay customer base also means that Tesla is expected to generate considerable revenue from advertising cooperation.</p><p>And the important thing is,<b>Just as smartphones have become far more than a communication tool, Tesla has a lot of potential to disrupt the mobile market in ways people never foresaw.</b></p><p>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Hardware, for example, is key to Apple keeping users on its platform, but it makes a lot of profits by publishing and offering a range of services (cloud storage, gaming, insurance, Apple Pay, etc.).</p><p>The same goes for Tesla, which can lure users into its ecosystem with hardware and let them do a lot of additional consumption activities on various software services.</p><p>Moreover, its ability to link the different vehicles within its system together in an unprecedented tightness provides the possibility for the implementation of many of its services. Automated driving, charging, repairs, service upgrades, content and more will all be key profit sources for Tesla's web services.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e511c85c0657d7df1a266e19cb46c259\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"280\"></p><p>Tesla's advantage over Apple is that it can get 100% of the revenue from its self-developed FSD system without having to share it with others, which will bring Tesla very huge profits.</p><p>According to Morgan Stanley,<b>Tesla will have more than 20 million cars by 2030</b>Of which the penetration rate of active revenue-generating users will increase to 60% from around 35% in 2020. This implies a 38% CAGR for MAU (Monthly Active Users) from 4,650,000 in 2020 to 12 million in 2030, and its ARPU will increase to $100 per month ($1,200/year).</p><p>They also predict that Tesla services revenue will reach about $897 million in 2021, grow to $5 billion by 2025 and $14.5 billion by 2030. This expected growth rate is high, and its predictions of the growth potential in Tesla's network service model are also related to the rapid growth of Tesla vehicles on the road. Therefore, whether the high growth of car ownership can be achieved will be the key to the profitability scale of Tesla's network services.</p><p>Tesla recently raised the price of the FSD to $10,000 per unit, and many expect it to raise the price further in the near future. Tesla said it expects to launch a subscription model for FSD in 2021 and explore tiered pricing plans such as highway vs. city, commercial/retail, and monthly/per mile plans, which are obviously very profitable.</p><p>Although people don't buy FSD much in China, Musk insists that with the increase of automation, people will change their wishes, and FSD will also win Tesla more profit margins.</p><p><b>02. Tesla Energy and Tesla Insurance, which were included in the valuation range for the first time</b></p><p>Four years ago, Tesla unexpectedly bought Solarcity, and Morgan Stanley valued it at 0 at the time. But today is different from the past. Four years is enough to spawn many changes. Morgan Stanley has also given Tesla's energy business a positive valuation for the first time.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's basic valuation for Tesla's energy business is $12/share. Its optimistic valuation of $40/share is based on its compound growth rate of 20% and gross profit margin of 30% by 2030, while its pessimistic valuation of $5/share applies to the situation where the growth rate is capped at 10% and the gross profit margin is at most 20%.</p><p>Tesla Energy is mainly divided into two parts,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>Deployment (civil, commercial rooftop solar panels) and energy storage (Powerwall, Megapack). Morgan Stanley valued Tesla's business with reference to solar leaders SUNPOWER (SPWR) and Sunrun (RUN). Currently, the regular growth rate for the solar industry is in the 10%-15% range.</p><p>According to the year-to-date trend, Morgan Stanley predicts that Tesla will deploy nearly 180 megawatts of solar energy and 2.1 gigawatts of storage capacity in 2020, and its revenue will start at about $1.8 billion this year. Ten years later, this figure will be $7.4 billion. By 2040, the business will generate more than $20 billion in revenue and can grow at a CAGR of more than 13%.</p><p>The gross profit margin of Tesla's integrated energy business averaged just over 12% in 2018 and 2019, and the gross profit margin in 2020 dropped significantly due to the COVID pandemic, but it remains positive, and this value is on track to return to 12% in 2022. By 2025, Tesla's gross profit margin will rival that of industry giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPWR\">SunPower</a>The level of.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ca052eecff10232fe830f25cc593030\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"402\"></p><p>Tesla has already launched its insurance business in California, and it has been a big success. Tesla offers interest rates of up to 20%-30% to its owners, and the business takes a monthly payment model, which is convenient and has no hidden extra charges. Tesla plans to expand the business across the United States next year.</p><p>Tesla's entry will disrupt the global auto insurance market that is up to $500 billion. It is superior to the traditional insurance industry in many aspects. It can not only accurately and remotely process the data information of vehicles and drivers in real time, but also has the advantages of light assets and low cost DTC distribution mode, and at the same time can provide consumers with superior and frictionless service experience.</p><p>The number of Tesla vehicles worldwide was 1.3 million during the year, and that number will increase to 2.1 million in 2021. We assume a 0.5% penetration rate in its insurance business next year, a net premium of just over $1,000 per policy, and its revenue will also reach $10 million.</p><p>Assuming that by 2030, the number of Tesla cars increases to 20 million and Tesla Insurance's share reaches 18%, then 36 million policyholders will each pay $1,105 in premiums, and Tesla's net premium income will be about $4 billion.</p><p>The Morgan Stanley insurance team notes that the industry average loss rate is typically around 75% with a rate of 25%. Progressive leads the industry with a 70% loss rate, 21% rate. Progressive can currently achieve a 10% underwriting margin, which Tesla may reach in 2026.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's underlying valuation for Tesla's insurance business is $15/share, and its pessimistic valuation is $0. Achieving an optimistic valuation of $33/share is premised on its ability to achieve 50% penetration in 2030 (100% in 2040) and its ability to earn an underwriting margin of up to 18%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5c94bb5023a8eaeb34ecca84bd30887\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"586\"></p><p><b>03. Tesla Mobility/Ride-Sharing Business</b></p><p>Subject to legal, ethical and technical constraints, the spread of Level 5 driverless development may not be as fast as many people expect. But Morgan Stanley thinks Tesla can develop a \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>\"Or mobile, ride-sharing businesses, competing with the likes of Uber and Lyft.</p><p>Morgan Stanley gives the business a valuation of $38/share and expects Tesla to have about 500,000 (2.3%) vehicles used in the business in 2030, generating $54 billion in revenue and achieving an operating margin of 14.7%. At that time, the business will account for 19% of Tesla's total revenue and 15% of its pre-tax profits. Its optimistic valuation is $91/share and its pessimistic valuation is $0.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fc7c1bd36210e78c2e2b1e91a1b7e34\" tg-width=\"810\" tg-height=\"505\"></p><p><b>Core Automotive DCF Business</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley gave Tesla's core automotive DCF business a base valuation of $254/share, an optimistic valuation of $462/share and a pessimistic valuation of $130/share.</p><p>The basis of the above expectation is that in 2030, Tesla will increase its annual production to 3.8 million vehicles, and its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) will contract to 18.7%. Its core gross profit margin will also decline, as Tesla is likely to adopt ASP price reduction strategies to increase market share and promote the use of electric vehicles.</p><p>Additionally, Full Self-Driving (FSD) will serve as a subscribable business in the segment as a source of recurring revenue for Tesla.</p><p><b>Electric vehicle battery/powertrain system supply business</b></p><p>Tesla's battery business will be an important driver for the company's future development. Morgan Stanley believes its optimistic valuation is as high as $124/share, the underlying valuation is $58/share, and the pessimistic valuation is also $29/share.</p><p>Its assumptions are as follows: by 2030, its third-party transaction volume will be approximately 2.5 million units in addition to the 3.8 million reserved. Its batteries supplied to third parties can output 200GWh (11.9% of the total market volume of 1.7TWh).</p><p>Not only can the electricity generate $106 per kilowatt-hour for Tesla, but its additional powertrain components (electric motors, inverters, BMS, etc.) can also generate an additional $8,000 per unit, bringing the total to $41 billion. Its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization in 2030 are expected to be $8.2 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21d8e3aa5c3b89f85a1b9688b17a4f54\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"464\"></p><p>Tesla has long been seen as a SOTP story with positive synergies. From transportation and energy to insurance and network services, we have witnessed Tesla's expanding business territory and will continue to look forward to its endless future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e70eddb15bfa55d72005c109ed7e3ff\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"396\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/znRTDA8hd74FmNZxGHazbg\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf056c93b86b4b78405c574b04f01c45","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/znRTDA8hd74FmNZxGHazbg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1141617841","content_text":"近日，摩根士丹利将特斯拉的股票评级上调为“增持”，并将对其价格水平的预测从360美元增至540美元，乐观估值更是高达1068美元，上涨142%，悲观估值也达到了250美元。其股价也一路走高，从18日到昨天收盘，上涨幅度达16%。促使他们做出这次调整的原因在于，摩根士丹利认为特斯拉已经极大突破了传统汽车公司的边界。特斯拉是软件公司，也是硬件公司；是汽车公司，也是科技公司。重大商业模式转变即将到来，已经被外界评价为“估值过高”的特斯拉仍有更进一步的空间。此次，摩根士丹利采用SOTP估值法，将特斯拉同时经营的不同业务分别选择合适的估值方法估值，再根据持股比例加权汇总得出总价值。其具体估值情况如下图所示：01、最有前景的业务——网络服务车联网的机会是实实在在的。在摩根士丹利看来，特斯拉网络服务的发展是使其股票进一步上涨的首要动力。其基础估值为164美元/股，乐观估值318美元/股，悲观估值86美元/股。特斯拉的主要收入来源将不再是汽车的购买交易（销量×价格），而在于售后人们在使用该产品的数年里的软件和服务收益（平台用户×ARPU）。人们在坐进一辆特斯拉后，就会进入一个由特斯拉打造的独特生态系统，并持续为其享受的各类服务付费。特斯拉目前提供了一系列可选服务，包括自动化驾驶（即全自动驾驶或FSD套餐）、信息娱乐（即高级信息娱乐，包括交通、视频流、音乐服务等）、性能升级（即提高车辆加速，改进的电池范围）和一系列其他服务（增压、维护包、游戏等）。这些服务影响的是用户在车内每分钟、每里程的体验。随着人们未来在车里度过的时间不断延长，用户活跃使用车内各种服务的时间也相当长，他们也更愿意为特定服务的使用和升级买单。特斯拉本身就拥有较为庞大的、粘性相对较高的用户群，用户对于其服务的重复使用率非常高。这些服务能够为特斯拉提供源源不断的高额利润和现金流，并进一步改善用户体验和平台粘性。同时，高粘性、付费意愿较高的客户群也意味着特斯拉有望凭借广告合作获得可观的收入。很重要的一点是，就像智能手机已经远远不止一个通讯工具一样，特斯拉有很大潜能以人们不曾预见的方式颠覆移动市场。以苹果为例，硬件是苹果将用户保留在其平台上的关键所在，但它通过发布和提供一系列服务（云存储、游戏、保险、苹果支付等）获得了大量的利润。特斯拉也是如此，它可以凭借硬件吸引用户进入其生态系统，并让他们对各类软件服务进行大量的附加消费活动。此外，它能将其系统内的不同车辆空前紧密地联系在一起，这也为其许多服务的实现提供了可能性。自动化驾驶、充电、维修、服务升级、内容等都将成为特斯拉网络服务的关键利润来源。特斯拉相对于苹果的优势则在于，它可以从其自主开发的FSD系统中获得100%的收入，而不必与他人分成，这将给特斯拉带来非常庞大的利润。摩根士丹利认为，到2030年，特斯拉的汽车保有量将超过2000万辆，其中活跃创收用户的渗透率将从2020年的35%左右增至60%。这意味着MAU（每月活跃用户）的复合年增长率为38%，从2020年的465000万增长到2030年的1200万，其ARPU将增至每月100美元（1200美元/年）。他们还预测，特斯拉服务收入将在2021年达到约8.97亿美元，到2025年将增至50亿美元，到2030年将达到145亿美元。这一预期增长率很高，而其对于特斯拉网络服务模式中增长潜力的预测也都与特斯拉汽车在道路上的快速增长有关。因此，能否实现汽车保有量的高增长将是特斯拉网络服务盈利规模的关键。特斯拉最近将FSD的价格提高到每台1万美元，许多人预计其会在不久的将来进一步提高价格。特斯拉表示，预计将在2021年推出FSD的订阅模式，并探索分层定价方案，如高速公路与城市、商业/零售和月度/每英里计划，这显然是非常有利可图的。尽管在中国，人们对FSD并不怎么买账，但马斯克坚称随着自动化程度的提高，人们将改变他们的意愿，FSD也将给特斯拉赢得更大的利润空间。02、首次被纳入估值范围的特斯拉能源和特斯拉保险四年前，特斯拉出乎市场预料地买入了Solarcity，摩根士丹利当时对它做出了0的估值。但今时不同往日，四年的时间足以催生很多变化，摩根士丹利也第一次给予了特斯拉能源业务一个正估值。摩根士丹利对于特斯拉能源业务的基本估值为12美元/股。其乐观估值40美元/股建立在其2030年将达到20%的复合增长率和30%的毛利率的基础上而，悲观估值5美元/股则适用于增长率10%封顶、毛利率至多20%的情形。特斯拉能源主要分为两块，太阳能部署（民用、商用屋顶太阳能板）和能源储存（Powerwall、Megapack）。摩根士丹利参照太阳能领域的领军企业SUNPOWER(SPWR)和Sunrun(RUN)对特斯拉的该项业务进行估值。目前，太阳能行业的常规增长率在10%-15%范围内。摩根士丹利根据年初至今的趋势预测道，特斯拉在2020年部署近180兆瓦的太阳能和2.1千兆瓦的存储容量，本年度收入起点在18亿美元左右，十年后这个数字将会是74亿美元。至2040年，该业务收入将超过200亿美元，复合年增长率可高于13%。2018年和2019年，特斯拉能源综合业务的毛利率平均略高于12%，2020年的毛利率由于新冠疫情大幅下降，但仍为正值，这一数值有望在2022年重回12%。到2025年，特斯拉的毛利率将达到能够比肩行业巨头SunPower的水平。特斯拉目前已经在加利福尼亚州推行保险业务，并且大获成功。特斯拉为其车主提供高达20%-30%的利率，该业务采取月付模式，非常便捷，且没有隐藏的额外收费。特斯拉计划在明年将该业务推广至全美。特斯拉的入场将颠覆规模高达5000亿美元的全球汽车保险市场。它在许多方面都优于传统保险行业，其不但能够做到实时对车辆、驾驶员等数据信息的精确远程处理，还有着轻资产和低成本的DTC分销模式的优势，同时能够为消费者提供优越的、无摩擦的服务体验。本年度特斯拉汽车的全球保有量为130万辆，2021年该数字将增至210万辆。我们假设明年其保险业务的渗透率为0.5%，每份保单的净保费略高于1000美元，其收入也将达到1000万美元。假定到2030年，特斯拉汽车保有量增至2000万辆，特斯拉保险的份额达到18%，那么3600万投保人每人将付出1105美元的保费，特斯拉的净保费收入约为40亿美元。摩根士丹利保险团队指出，行业平均损失率通常在75%左右，费率为25%。Progressive以70%的损失率、21%的费率引领行业。Progressive目前可以实现10%的承保利润率，而特斯拉或将在2026年达到这一水平。摩根士丹利对于特斯拉保险业务的基础估值为15美元/股，悲观估值为0美元。实现乐观估值33美元/股的前提是其能够在2030年达到50%的渗透率（在2040年实现100%），并能够获得高达18%的承保利润率。03、特斯拉移动/汽车共乘业务受法律、道德和技术方面的制约，第5级无人驾驶发展的普及可能难以像许多人所期望的那么快。但摩根士丹利认为特斯拉能够在这个过渡区间发展一种“机器人”或移动、汽车共乘业务，与Uber和Lyft等公司一争高下。摩根士丹利赋予该项业务38美元/股的估值，预计特斯拉将在2030年有约50万辆（2.3%）汽车用于该业务，产生540亿美元的收入，并实现14.7%的运营利润率。到时候，该业务将占特斯拉总收入的19%，税前利润的15%。其乐观估值为91美元/股，悲观估值0美元。04、核心汽车DCF业务摩根士丹利对于特斯拉的核心汽车DCF业务给予了254美元/股的基础估值，乐观估值462美元/股，悲观估值130美元/股。以上预期的基础是在2030年，特斯拉汽车年产量将增至380万辆，息税折旧及摊销前利润率（EBITDA）将收缩到18.7%。其核心毛利率也将下降，因为特斯拉很有可能采取ASP降价策略来增加市场份额，推广电动汽车的使用。此外，全自动驾驶(FSD)将作为细分市场中的可订阅业务，成为特斯拉经常性收入的来源。05、电动汽车电池/动力总成系统供应业务特斯拉的电池业务将成为公司未来发展的重要驱动力。摩根士丹利认为其乐观估值高达124美元/股，基础估值58美元/股，悲观估值也有29美元/股。其假设如下：到2030年，除自留的380万之外，其第三方交易量约为250万单位。其供应给第三方的电池可输出200GWh（占市场总量1.7TWh的11.9%）。不仅每千瓦时电可以为特斯拉带来106美元的收入，其额外动力系统组件（电动马达、逆变器、BMS等）也可带来每单位8千美元的额外收入，总收入可达410亿美元。2030年其息税折旧摊销前利润被预计为82亿美元。长期以来，特斯拉一直被视为一个发挥了积极协同效应的SOTP故事。从交通、能源到保险、网络服务，我们见证了特斯拉不断扩大的商业版图，也将继续期待它无限可能的未来。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3527667803686145","idStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","text":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","html":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":334611034,"gmtCreate":1610747479928,"gmtModify":1704986067825,"author":{"id":"3458972508430412","authorId":"3458972508430412","name":"Sachez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/145f3291ee4f995e07d50dc97277125d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458972508430412","idStr":"3458972508430412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$</a>.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$</a>.","text":"$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/334611034","repostId":"335658120","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":335658120,"gmtCreate":1610592465360,"gmtModify":1704984772205,"author":{"id":"3541377675348678","authorId":"3541377675348678","name":"少年维特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1bdb6640a3e75becbeddd8174c1a002","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541377675348678","idStr":"3541377675348678"},"themes":[],"title":"看完奈飛CEO《不拘一格》的一些感受","htmlText":"最近奈飛要發財報了，剛好最近剛擼完他們創始人CEO的那本書《不拘一格》，很開眼界，特別是結合最近的<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a> 事件來看，天上地下兩個極端，一個是《不拘一格》，一個是工具人，說下自己的一些看法。先說說這本書吧，太火了，聽說已經賣斷貨了，前兩天看還有直播陸奇和裏德的對話。整體感受：打工仔世風日上啊。核心關鍵詞，或者說是大前提，就是人才密度，所有一系列管理都是基於人才密度建立起來的。書開篇有個龍捲風圖，可以認爲是整本書的框架。“人才重於流程、創新高於效率、自由多於管控的企業文化。我們的文化強調以人才密度實現最高績效，對員工實行情境管理而不是控制。這使得我們能夠不斷地成長，並隨着整個世界、隨着客戶需求的變化而變化。”書裏面提到了很多案例感覺還是非常有意思：比如，他們叫北極星策略，就一個指標，只要站在公司立場是正確的，無需逐層審批；不用取悅領導，把員工當成成年人，有充分的的自由度，甚至一線員工都可以代表公司簽訂幾千萬刀的合同；絕對坦誠，可以越N級領導，當場提問質疑指出錯誤，前提是抱着解決問題的態度。這種文化還會充分考慮本地化，比如荷蘭人甚至比美國人更直接，日本就比較含蓄，同樣一句話文化差異也可能帶來不一樣效果。信息透明，絕對信任，高管開會討論的內容不是一小撮人的信息優勢，全員都能看到，更奇葩的是公司季度報告也會提前拿出來公開討論，甚至發財報以後對股價有什麼影響也會分析。鼓勵大家去別家公司面試，隨時校準自己在人才市場的最高價位；……類似這樣的事兒，對國內絕大部分企業來講是天方夜譚。如果中國市場開放了，奈飛殺進來，狗在愛優騰的人才還不得扎堆往裏面鑽。最後總結，我也認爲比較理智，用哪種方式，還是要看行業，究竟是避免出錯的行業，還是尋求創新的行業。奈飛這種後者可能","listText":"最近奈飛要發財報了，剛好最近剛擼完他們創始人CEO的那本書《不拘一格》，很開眼界，特別是結合最近的<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a> 事件來看，天上地下兩個極端，一個是《不拘一格》，一個是工具人，說下自己的一些看法。先說說這本書吧，太火了，聽說已經賣斷貨了，前兩天看還有直播陸奇和裏德的對話。整體感受：打工仔世風日上啊。核心關鍵詞，或者說是大前提，就是人才密度，所有一系列管理都是基於人才密度建立起來的。書開篇有個龍捲風圖，可以認爲是整本書的框架。“人才重於流程、創新高於效率、自由多於管控的企業文化。我們的文化強調以人才密度實現最高績效，對員工實行情境管理而不是控制。這使得我們能夠不斷地成長，並隨着整個世界、隨着客戶需求的變化而變化。”書裏面提到了很多案例感覺還是非常有意思：比如，他們叫北極星策略，就一個指標，只要站在公司立場是正確的，無需逐層審批；不用取悅領導，把員工當成成年人，有充分的的自由度，甚至一線員工都可以代表公司簽訂幾千萬刀的合同；絕對坦誠，可以越N級領導，當場提問質疑指出錯誤，前提是抱着解決問題的態度。這種文化還會充分考慮本地化，比如荷蘭人甚至比美國人更直接，日本就比較含蓄，同樣一句話文化差異也可能帶來不一樣效果。信息透明，絕對信任，高管開會討論的內容不是一小撮人的信息優勢，全員都能看到，更奇葩的是公司季度報告也會提前拿出來公開討論，甚至發財報以後對股價有什麼影響也會分析。鼓勵大家去別家公司面試，隨時校準自己在人才市場的最高價位；……類似這樣的事兒，對國內絕大部分企業來講是天方夜譚。如果中國市場開放了，奈飛殺進來，狗在愛優騰的人才還不得扎堆往裏面鑽。最後總結，我也認爲比較理智，用哪種方式，還是要看行業，究竟是避免出錯的行業，還是尋求創新的行業。奈飛這種後者可能","text":"最近奈飛要發財報了，剛好最近剛擼完他們創始人CEO的那本書《不拘一格》，很開眼界，特別是結合最近的$拼多多(PDD)$ 事件來看，天上地下兩個極端，一個是《不拘一格》，一個是工具人，說下自己的一些看法。先說說這本書吧，太火了，聽說已經賣斷貨了，前兩天看還有直播陸奇和裏德的對話。整體感受：打工仔世風日上啊。核心關鍵詞，或者說是大前提，就是人才密度，所有一系列管理都是基於人才密度建立起來的。書開篇有個龍捲風圖，可以認爲是整本書的框架。“人才重於流程、創新高於效率、自由多於管控的企業文化。我們的文化強調以人才密度實現最高績效，對員工實行情境管理而不是控制。這使得我們能夠不斷地成長，並隨着整個世界、隨着客戶需求的變化而變化。”書裏面提到了很多案例感覺還是非常有意思：比如，他們叫北極星策略，就一個指標，只要站在公司立場是正確的，無需逐層審批；不用取悅領導，把員工當成成年人，有充分的的自由度，甚至一線員工都可以代表公司簽訂幾千萬刀的合同；絕對坦誠，可以越N級領導，當場提問質疑指出錯誤，前提是抱着解決問題的態度。這種文化還會充分考慮本地化，比如荷蘭人甚至比美國人更直接，日本就比較含蓄，同樣一句話文化差異也可能帶來不一樣效果。信息透明，絕對信任，高管開會討論的內容不是一小撮人的信息優勢，全員都能看到，更奇葩的是公司季度報告也會提前拿出來公開討論，甚至發財報以後對股價有什麼影響也會分析。鼓勵大家去別家公司面試，隨時校準自己在人才市場的最高價位；……類似這樣的事兒，對國內絕大部分企業來講是天方夜譚。如果中國市場開放了，奈飛殺進來，狗在愛優騰的人才還不得扎堆往裏面鑽。最後總結，我也認爲比較理智，用哪種方式，還是要看行業，究竟是避免出錯的行業，還是尋求創新的行業。奈飛這種後者可能","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a0846323b4a4f9b76dd4cd37969cf31","width":"688","height":"917"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/335658120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2842,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
