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2021-06-29

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NIO: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation

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16:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124372919","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.However, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.We discuss how these factors could combine with its focus on China to transform it into a $1 trillion mega cap.NIO also has a strong foothold on autonomous mobility technology thanks to filing nearly 50 patents in the area and boasts AI-powered smart \"cockpits.\". Given that the mobility industry is becoming increasingly software-driven,","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.</li>\n <li>However, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.</li>\n <li>We discuss how these factors could combine with its focus on China to transform it into a $1 trillion mega cap.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17cdcfe41a4b886c29dad01d4512e84e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Lintao Zhang/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p>Similar to how we analyzed Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)in our recent piece<i>Palantir: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation</i>, NIO Inc.(NYSE:NIO)is unique in that it is already a large cap stock, but has a massive growth runway that could quite conceivably make it a mega-cap stock and eventually even approach a valuation of $1 Trillion. Here are five reasons why it could successfully achieve that valuation:</p>\n<p><b>#1. \"Gas Station\" Of The Future</b></p>\n<p>NIO is a major designer and manufacturer of high-tech electric vehicles in China and as a result competes with the likes of Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)in innovative technologies like connectivity, batteries, autonomous mobility, and artificial intelligence.</p>\n<p>NIO's status as an emerging leader in these innovative technologies is perhaps the biggest reason to believe that they could become a multi-bagger from today's already lofty valuation and become a true mega cap.</p>\n<p>For example, its Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) potential is immense. The company has already begun building out the infrastructure for this business through its&nbsp;recent partnership&nbsp;with Sinopec(NYSE:SHI)through which they aspire to create a 5,000 battery swap station network by 2024. This will give NIO a decisive network advantage in this space just as it begins to really take off in the world's largest electric vehicle market, enabling it to form partnerships with other automakers in the country and drive strong revenue growth from this business alone. Essentially, this would make NIO the number one \"gas station\" company in China as the country and world enter the age of electrification.</p>\n<p>Given that they possess hundreds of patents in battery swap technology, NIO seems to already have the intellectual property moat necessary to transform this potential into reality. It appears to be merely a matter of time for them to implement and scale now.</p>\n<p><b>#2. Autonomous Mobility &amp; AI Technology</b></p>\n<p>NIO also has a strong foothold on autonomous mobility technology thanks to filing nearly 50 patents in the area and boasts AI-powered smart \"cockpits.\"</p>\n<p>Given that the mobility industry is becoming increasingly software-driven, its intellectual property portfolio here is important as well. Even more important, though, is its competitive positioning to emerge as a long-term leader in the electric vehicle space in China, not only because of the vehicle sales potential it offers, but much more importantly because it is the largest source of consumer data in the world. As a result, NIO will have access to a vast amount of data with which it can improve its A.I. and build one of the best mobility software platforms in the world.</p>\n<p><b>#3. Government Support</b></p>\n<p>Another big reason to believe in NIO's long-term potential stems from the simple fact that it is a leading local company in China in high-priority technology fields. As a result, it will likely enjoy significant support from the Chinese government so that it can serve as a vehicle whereby China can advance its goals towards becoming the pre-eminent global technological superpower.</p>\n<p>This principle has already played out several times to NIO's benefit.</p>\n<p>For example, the&nbsp;government recently gave&nbsp;NIO a RMB7 billion (US$1b) bailout to give it the cash it needed to sustain and scale operations.</p>\n<p>Additionally, government-owned auto manufacturer - Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp - has also assisted NIO by providing it with manufacturing services, enabling it to scale with minimal additional capital investment.</p>\n<p>Perhaps the most glaring example of this was how the Chinese state media&nbsp;recently successfully harmed&nbsp;the reputation of TSLA - NIO's top foreign rival - to the point where the Elon Musk-led company had to issue an apology.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, the Chinese government is making a major push to transition the automotive market towards electric vehicles in an effort to battle its huge pollution problem. It is achieving these aims by offering purchase rebates and tax exemptions for the industry, while also placing restrictions on new gasoline and diesel powered vehicle permits.</p>\n<p><b>#4. Global Expansion</b></p>\n<p>NIO is also poised to begin expanding its sales into global markets, beginning with Norway. Not only will the company be selling its cars there, but it will be building out local physical and digital infrastructure to create a high quality user-friendly ecosystem to add value to its brand and bolster its competitive positioning. Once it has built significant scale in Norway, it will then have a greater position of strength from which to infiltrate the rest of the European market. Given the geopolitical tensions with the United States at the moment as well as Tesla's dominance in the U.S. electric vehicle market, Europe seems like a much more logical choice to begin global expansion.</p>\n<p><b>#5. Crunching The Numbers</b></p>\n<p>Electric Vehicle sales are already growing exponentially - especially in China - and we expect that number to explode much higher in the years to come.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00cdeb70c618caeddbbd16df936194ad\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"572\"></p>\n<p>In fact, while just barely over 1.2 million electric vehicles were sold worldwide in 2017,Bloomberg New Energy Finance&nbsp;expects that number to soar to 60 million by 2040. Not only that, but battery and battery charging infrastructure demand will soar as well.</p>\n<p>If NIO can seize on its early leadership in China in both the electric vehicle and battery charging infrastructure businesses and also successfully scale its business internationally, there is certainly room for it to achieve a $1 trillion valuation by 2040. For example, its gross margin is expected to be nearly 20% in 2021 and 2022. TSLA's gross, meanwhile, is around 23% and its net margin is roughly half of that, or ~11.5%.</p>\n<p>NIO's BaaS business should also be higher margin given that it could be entirely automated and the actual real estate could be leased instead of owned in order to free up capital for higher return investment elsewhere. With continued scaling in both businesses and overall positive trends in the business with reduced costs across the board through automation and enhanced data analytics, we think gross margins of 25% and net margins of 15% by 2040 are entirely feasible.</p>\n<p>If NIO were to grab just 7.5% of the global EV market (TSLA's is currently 11%) by 2040, it would be selling ~4.5 million cars per year. We think this share is actually very feasible when you consider that the majority of electric vehicle sales are expected to be in China and that NIO has an inside track on that market given the support it is receiving from the government.</p>\n<p>If the average sale were for $40,000 per electric vehicle, its profit would be ~$6,000 per vehicle, translating to $27 billion in annual profit from auto sales alone. At a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would put the automotive business at a $810 billion valuation.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, its BaaS business could likely generate $150 in profits per year per vehicle in its sphere in China. By 2030,it is estimated&nbsp;that there will be 50 million electric vehicles on the road in China and that EVs will account for 40% of total auto sales. A very conservative estimate is that the number of EVs on the road in China will double to 100 million by 2040. If NIO's BaaS business serves 20% of the electric vehicles in China by 2040, that would equate to an additional $3+ billion in annual net income. Once again applying a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would equate to roughly another $100 billion in market valuation.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the potential for using its data and autonomous vehicle technology as well as vast BaaS infrastructure to launch an autonomous taxi business network is also immense. While it is hard to know exactly what sort of value this would command as it is hard to project how it would be regulated by the Chinese government and how well consumers would adopt it, it is not a stretch that NIO's scale and capabilities by this point in such a potentially massive market as is offered in China would put the valuation for this business at $100 billion.</p>\n<p>Combining all three businesses gets us to a $1 trillion total valuation under a bullish, but not entirely implausible scenario.</p>\n<p><b>Risk Analysis</b></p>\n<p>While the path to $1 trillion certainly looks viable, there are numerous risks to consider along the way.</p>\n<p>First and foremost, NIO faces a lot of competition from both foreign and domestic companies. TSLA has a large presence in China and overseas and sports a premium brand to go along with an extremely driven and innovative CEO and engineering team. While the Chinese government has helped NIO some already with surviving the TSLA threat, it is unknown the depths that it will have to and be willing to go to continue giving NIO a boost to sustain its competitive standing in its domestic market.</p>\n<p>Of course, NIO also faces competitive pressures from fellow Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers including Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU), which already has a&nbsp;partnership&nbsp;with a government-owned automaker (BAIC Group) to put 1,000 driverless cars on the roads over the next 3 years as a prelude to establishing an autonomous taxi service in China. Facing off against fellow major domestic players who also have government backing poses another threat to NIO because it means that it cannot solely rely on government assistance to survive and thrive.</p>\n<p>On that same note, it also increases the political risk for NIO. Given that it is not the only horse that China is betting on in the mobility space, if their leadership were to run afoul of the Chinese Communist Party and/or they were to simply lag behind in performance, they could quickly be \"dropped\" by the government and the business could fall into a downward spiral. If Alibaba(NYSE:BABA)&nbsp;could face this, NIO certainly could too. If nothing else, the Chinese government could easily seize some or all of NIO's physical or intellectual property for state use, depriving NIO shareholders of much of their equity value.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, expanding overseas could also be complicated by the fact that China is currently dealing with growing geopolitical tensions with other Asia-Pacific nations, Europe, and the United States. As a result, trade barriers may go up, especially in such high-priority technologies as mobility and autonomous technology. The U.S., Europe, Japan, Korea, and even India have well-established automobile industries and if they feel threatened by a Chinese competitor, they may well decide to throw up barriers to entry in their markets.</p>\n<p>Of course, as the China hustle pointed out, many Chinese companies have a troubling track record of fudging accounting numbers. As a result, investors should always view Chinese company - to include NIO's - financial numbers with a healthy dose of skepticism. While it is very possible - if not likely - that NIO's numbers are completely accurate, it is still a risk that needs to be considered.</p>\n<p>Last, but not least, NIO is currently priced quite expensively as it is still running up massive losses and trades at 71 times expected 2021 gross income. Therefore, the range of potential future outcomes is quite wide and investors could very well be dramatically overpaying by purchasing at today's prices. It should be viewed as a highly speculative investment accordingly.</p>\n<p><b>Investor Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>NIO is currently struggling to turn a profit and has had to be bailed out by the Chinese government. At the same time, its valuation is sky-high. While this might steer many investors away and the stock is indeed a very speculative investment, there is also a plausible path for the company to become a $1 trillion mega cap by 2040 and generate attractive long-term returns for investors as a result.</p>\n<p>While not for the faint of heart and certainly not without risks, NIO could continue on its path towards becoming one of the world's pre-eminent mobility companies.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-28 16:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436753-nio-the-path-to-a-1-trillion-valuation><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.\nHowever, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.\nWe discuss how these ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436753-nio-the-path-to-a-1-trillion-valuation\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436753-nio-the-path-to-a-1-trillion-valuation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124372919","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.\nHowever, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.\nWe discuss how these factors could combine with its focus on China to transform it into a $1 trillion mega cap.\n\nLintao Zhang/Getty Images News\nSimilar to how we analyzed Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)in our recent piecePalantir: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation, NIO Inc.(NYSE:NIO)is unique in that it is already a large cap stock, but has a massive growth runway that could quite conceivably make it a mega-cap stock and eventually even approach a valuation of $1 Trillion. Here are five reasons why it could successfully achieve that valuation:\n#1. \"Gas Station\" Of The Future\nNIO is a major designer and manufacturer of high-tech electric vehicles in China and as a result competes with the likes of Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)in innovative technologies like connectivity, batteries, autonomous mobility, and artificial intelligence.\nNIO's status as an emerging leader in these innovative technologies is perhaps the biggest reason to believe that they could become a multi-bagger from today's already lofty valuation and become a true mega cap.\nFor example, its Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) potential is immense. The company has already begun building out the infrastructure for this business through its recent partnership with Sinopec(NYSE:SHI)through which they aspire to create a 5,000 battery swap station network by 2024. This will give NIO a decisive network advantage in this space just as it begins to really take off in the world's largest electric vehicle market, enabling it to form partnerships with other automakers in the country and drive strong revenue growth from this business alone. Essentially, this would make NIO the number one \"gas station\" company in China as the country and world enter the age of electrification.\nGiven that they possess hundreds of patents in battery swap technology, NIO seems to already have the intellectual property moat necessary to transform this potential into reality. It appears to be merely a matter of time for them to implement and scale now.\n#2. Autonomous Mobility & AI Technology\nNIO also has a strong foothold on autonomous mobility technology thanks to filing nearly 50 patents in the area and boasts AI-powered smart \"cockpits.\"\nGiven that the mobility industry is becoming increasingly software-driven, its intellectual property portfolio here is important as well. Even more important, though, is its competitive positioning to emerge as a long-term leader in the electric vehicle space in China, not only because of the vehicle sales potential it offers, but much more importantly because it is the largest source of consumer data in the world. As a result, NIO will have access to a vast amount of data with which it can improve its A.I. and build one of the best mobility software platforms in the world.\n#3. Government Support\nAnother big reason to believe in NIO's long-term potential stems from the simple fact that it is a leading local company in China in high-priority technology fields. As a result, it will likely enjoy significant support from the Chinese government so that it can serve as a vehicle whereby China can advance its goals towards becoming the pre-eminent global technological superpower.\nThis principle has already played out several times to NIO's benefit.\nFor example, the government recently gave NIO a RMB7 billion (US$1b) bailout to give it the cash it needed to sustain and scale operations.\nAdditionally, government-owned auto manufacturer - Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp - has also assisted NIO by providing it with manufacturing services, enabling it to scale with minimal additional capital investment.\nPerhaps the most glaring example of this was how the Chinese state media recently successfully harmed the reputation of TSLA - NIO's top foreign rival - to the point where the Elon Musk-led company had to issue an apology.\nFurthermore, the Chinese government is making a major push to transition the automotive market towards electric vehicles in an effort to battle its huge pollution problem. It is achieving these aims by offering purchase rebates and tax exemptions for the industry, while also placing restrictions on new gasoline and diesel powered vehicle permits.\n#4. Global Expansion\nNIO is also poised to begin expanding its sales into global markets, beginning with Norway. Not only will the company be selling its cars there, but it will be building out local physical and digital infrastructure to create a high quality user-friendly ecosystem to add value to its brand and bolster its competitive positioning. Once it has built significant scale in Norway, it will then have a greater position of strength from which to infiltrate the rest of the European market. Given the geopolitical tensions with the United States at the moment as well as Tesla's dominance in the U.S. electric vehicle market, Europe seems like a much more logical choice to begin global expansion.\n#5. Crunching The Numbers\nElectric Vehicle sales are already growing exponentially - especially in China - and we expect that number to explode much higher in the years to come.\n\nIn fact, while just barely over 1.2 million electric vehicles were sold worldwide in 2017,Bloomberg New Energy Finance expects that number to soar to 60 million by 2040. Not only that, but battery and battery charging infrastructure demand will soar as well.\nIf NIO can seize on its early leadership in China in both the electric vehicle and battery charging infrastructure businesses and also successfully scale its business internationally, there is certainly room for it to achieve a $1 trillion valuation by 2040. For example, its gross margin is expected to be nearly 20% in 2021 and 2022. TSLA's gross, meanwhile, is around 23% and its net margin is roughly half of that, or ~11.5%.\nNIO's BaaS business should also be higher margin given that it could be entirely automated and the actual real estate could be leased instead of owned in order to free up capital for higher return investment elsewhere. With continued scaling in both businesses and overall positive trends in the business with reduced costs across the board through automation and enhanced data analytics, we think gross margins of 25% and net margins of 15% by 2040 are entirely feasible.\nIf NIO were to grab just 7.5% of the global EV market (TSLA's is currently 11%) by 2040, it would be selling ~4.5 million cars per year. We think this share is actually very feasible when you consider that the majority of electric vehicle sales are expected to be in China and that NIO has an inside track on that market given the support it is receiving from the government.\nIf the average sale were for $40,000 per electric vehicle, its profit would be ~$6,000 per vehicle, translating to $27 billion in annual profit from auto sales alone. At a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would put the automotive business at a $810 billion valuation.\nMeanwhile, its BaaS business could likely generate $150 in profits per year per vehicle in its sphere in China. By 2030,it is estimated that there will be 50 million electric vehicles on the road in China and that EVs will account for 40% of total auto sales. A very conservative estimate is that the number of EVs on the road in China will double to 100 million by 2040. If NIO's BaaS business serves 20% of the electric vehicles in China by 2040, that would equate to an additional $3+ billion in annual net income. Once again applying a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would equate to roughly another $100 billion in market valuation.\nMeanwhile, the potential for using its data and autonomous vehicle technology as well as vast BaaS infrastructure to launch an autonomous taxi business network is also immense. While it is hard to know exactly what sort of value this would command as it is hard to project how it would be regulated by the Chinese government and how well consumers would adopt it, it is not a stretch that NIO's scale and capabilities by this point in such a potentially massive market as is offered in China would put the valuation for this business at $100 billion.\nCombining all three businesses gets us to a $1 trillion total valuation under a bullish, but not entirely implausible scenario.\nRisk Analysis\nWhile the path to $1 trillion certainly looks viable, there are numerous risks to consider along the way.\nFirst and foremost, NIO faces a lot of competition from both foreign and domestic companies. TSLA has a large presence in China and overseas and sports a premium brand to go along with an extremely driven and innovative CEO and engineering team. While the Chinese government has helped NIO some already with surviving the TSLA threat, it is unknown the depths that it will have to and be willing to go to continue giving NIO a boost to sustain its competitive standing in its domestic market.\nOf course, NIO also faces competitive pressures from fellow Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers including Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU), which already has a partnership with a government-owned automaker (BAIC Group) to put 1,000 driverless cars on the roads over the next 3 years as a prelude to establishing an autonomous taxi service in China. Facing off against fellow major domestic players who also have government backing poses another threat to NIO because it means that it cannot solely rely on government assistance to survive and thrive.\nOn that same note, it also increases the political risk for NIO. Given that it is not the only horse that China is betting on in the mobility space, if their leadership were to run afoul of the Chinese Communist Party and/or they were to simply lag behind in performance, they could quickly be \"dropped\" by the government and the business could fall into a downward spiral. If Alibaba(NYSE:BABA) could face this, NIO certainly could too. If nothing else, the Chinese government could easily seize some or all of NIO's physical or intellectual property for state use, depriving NIO shareholders of much of their equity value.\nFurthermore, expanding overseas could also be complicated by the fact that China is currently dealing with growing geopolitical tensions with other Asia-Pacific nations, Europe, and the United States. As a result, trade barriers may go up, especially in such high-priority technologies as mobility and autonomous technology. The U.S., Europe, Japan, Korea, and even India have well-established automobile industries and if they feel threatened by a Chinese competitor, they may well decide to throw up barriers to entry in their markets.\nOf course, as the China hustle pointed out, many Chinese companies have a troubling track record of fudging accounting numbers. As a result, investors should always view Chinese company - to include NIO's - financial numbers with a healthy dose of skepticism. While it is very possible - if not likely - that NIO's numbers are completely accurate, it is still a risk that needs to be considered.\nLast, but not least, NIO is currently priced quite expensively as it is still running up massive losses and trades at 71 times expected 2021 gross income. Therefore, the range of potential future outcomes is quite wide and investors could very well be dramatically overpaying by purchasing at today's prices. It should be viewed as a highly speculative investment accordingly.\nInvestor Takeaway\nNIO is currently struggling to turn a profit and has had to be bailed out by the Chinese government. At the same time, its valuation is sky-high. While this might steer many investors away and the stock is indeed a very speculative investment, there is also a plausible path for the company to become a $1 trillion mega cap by 2040 and generate attractive long-term returns for investors as a result.\nWhile not for the faint of heart and certainly not without risks, NIO could continue on its path towards becoming one of the world's pre-eminent mobility companies.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120154605,"gmtCreate":1624316785007,"gmtModify":1703833087340,"author":{"id":"3554890351858233","authorId":"3554890351858233","name":"Trev","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9016d2c3be7a6a9ebf2ff8c7fb390114","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554890351858233","authorIdStr":"3554890351858233"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120154605","repostId":"1126003524","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120155868,"gmtCreate":1624316741954,"gmtModify":1703833085036,"author":{"id":"3554890351858233","authorId":"3554890351858233","name":"Trev","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9016d2c3be7a6a9ebf2ff8c7fb390114","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554890351858233","authorIdStr":"3554890351858233"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to go","listText":"Time to go","text":"Time to go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120155868","repostId":"1127414335","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127414335","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624288763,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127414335?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 23:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon's Stock Is Ready For The Next Leg Higher","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127414335","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAfter a year-long consolidation in stock prices, Amazon looks set to move higher due to con","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>After a year-long consolidation in stock prices, Amazon looks set to move higher due to continued momentum in its higher-margin businesses, i.e., AWS and Digital Ads.</li>\n <li>Amazon looks poised to blow past $500B in annual sales in 2021 with massive improvements in operating margins (profitability).</li>\n <li>The stock is trading well below its fair value of $5,900 per share, and investors could generate ~19% CAGR returns over the next decade with Amazon.</li>\n <li>Today, I will share my analysis that suggests a fresh leg higher for Amazon's stock. Furthermore, we will discuss some of the key risks faced by the company.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Amazon (AMZN) is delivering robust revenue and profitability growth in 2021 on top of the stellar numbers registered during the pandemic in 2020. However, investors watching Amazon's stock over the last 12 months or so would be led to think otherwise. After a big move last year, the stock has virtually frozen since mid 2020. In times where meme stock investors are making a lot of tendies (profits), Amazon's near-term underperformance has been disappointing for many long-term investors. However, things could look a lot different in the next 6-12 months. Amazon is set to scale new highs, and I will outline why that's the case in this article.</p>\n<p>The primary driver of a company's price is free cash flow, and Amazon is poised to deliver a lot more of it. Amazon's higher-margin businesses, i.e., Amazon Web Services and Digital Ads (hidden in the \"Other\" segment in financial statements), are seeing accelerated growth. Furthermore, Amazon's e-commerce business also is delivering huge amounts of free cash flow at scale. Over the last 12 months, Amazon garnered $67B of cash from operations, which represents a 69% year-over-year jump. With business showing no signs of slowing down in the post-pandemic world and impending reduction in pandemic costs (billions of dollars per quarter), Amazon could very well deliver a big jump in free cash flow this year. As you may know, Amazon's balance sheet already is a fortress. However, the cash pile is getting so large that initiation of a capital return program could become imperative in the next three to four years.</p>\n<p>After evaluating Amazon using the LASV model, I deduced that the company is worth ~$5,900 per share. This projection means that Amazon is massively undervalued at the moment. Over the last 12 months, Amazon's trading multiples have shrunk back to normalized levels and future growth in revenue and free cash flow are very likely to result in higher stock prices.</p>\n<p><b>The Tale Of A Year-Long Consolidation</b></p>\n<p>At BTM, we own Amazon since it was at around $1,750. However, after a big rally in 2020, we rated the stock a modest buy for quite some time. And so, we are not really surprised by the year-long consolidation.</p>\n<p>Here's our extensive research work on Amazon:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Retail Ecosystem -Amazon: Here Is What The Retail Segment Is Worth</li>\n <li>Amazon Web Services -Amazon: Here's What You Should Be Monitoring</li>\n <li>Digital Ads -Amazon: The 'Other' Segment May Be Worth More Than AWS</li>\n</ol>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86ef0b4ba9477ffe4662dd02b4a4fe56\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: YCharts</p>\n<p>Now, our modest buy ratings from last year have been justified. Amazon has underperformed the S&amp;P 500 index by around 6% in the previous 12-month period. With continued business momentum and stagnant stock price, Amazon's trading multiples have been falling down rapidly since August-2020.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450a291ce832606dc4568f5b000a234b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"></p>\n<p>Source: YCharts</p>\n<p>After rapid normalization in trading multiples due to excellent financial performance, we upgraded the stock at BTM after the latest quarterly report. Although Amazon's underperformance over the last year has been demoralizing for long-term investors, I believe this is the right time to get onboard before a fresh rally ensues in the stock.</p>\n<p><b>Why Is Amazon Ready To Move Higher?</b></p>\n<p>In Q1 2021, Amazon recorded net sales of $108B (up +44% y/y) on the back of swift acceleration in AWS and Ad revenues (\"Other\" segment). Furthermore, we're seeing continued momentum in Amazon's e-commerce and streaming businesses. The following data serves as evidence for the same:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/484d6ffb34aa711d2460f56878a19b30\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:Amazon Q1 2021 Earnings Release</p>\n<p>With acceleration in higher-margin revenue lines, Amazon's operating margin (profitability) is improving rapidly. In the latest quarter, Amazon's TTM operating margins reached an all-time high of 6.63%. At this point, I recommend you read our research coverage on Amazon (shared earlier in this article) to understand the dynamics at play in different business lines at the company.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f684da9379808e65eb00bac24f21bd5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"></p>\n<p>Source: YCharts</p>\n<p>As you may already know, Amazon is an emerging operating leverage story. In Q1, Amazon's operating income increased by ~122% y/y to come in at $8.865B (rapid q/q acceleration). Over the next 12 months, Amazon would likely deliver an operating income of ~$40-50B. This massive jump in operating income will translate into greater amounts of free cash flow (and, by extension, a higher share price).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de1ec1d647bed5d59e91bdaa0535d25e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\"></p>\n<p>Source:&nbsp;Amazon Q1 2021 Earnings Release</p>\n<p>Since 2018, Amazon has seen a big jump in Cash from Operations, which has gone up ~3.5x from ~$20B per year to ~$70B per year in 2021. Amazon, being Amazon, has invested massive amounts of this cash back into its business to drive future revenue growth, resulting in lower levels of free cash flow ($26.5B in 2020). Therefore, I believe Amazon's true free cash flow is much higher than its reported numbers.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f1ccee71f8675c6cabd16cf4e08733d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: YCharts</p>\n<p>The massive amounts of cash being generated by Amazon are starting to pile up on the balance sheet (which had roughly $34B of cash at the end of last quarter). Further margin expansion is likely to create even more free cash flow over coming quarters and years, and this cash pile will only grow bigger. At some point in the near future, Amazon will need to start returning capital to shareholders through buybacks or dividends. My estimate is that Amazon would start a capital return program by 2025, but I will discuss this prediction in a separate note in the future.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c041f8732f0e9557d632f4bc3444b54\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"></p>\n<p>Source: YCharts</p>\n<p>Amazon is expected to record ~$500B in annual sales in 2021 and I expect Amazon to take over the title of the \"largest company by sales\" in 2022. In my opinion, Amazon still has massive growth left in its armory. According to consensus analyst estimates on Seeking Alpha, Amazon would likely be raking in revenue of $1.5T per year by 2030.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6b99e2dd54b3885cd7542d213be0429\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"635\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:Seeking Alpha</p>\n<p>I believe these numbers are achievable. In fact, they're very likely to materialize over the next decade. AWS, Digital Ads, and Amazon Care (in-house healthcare offering (at least for now)) are likely to be the primary drivers of future free cash flow for the company. Now, let's estimate the fair value and expected returns for Amazon.</p>\n<p><b>Fair Value And Expected Returns</b></p>\n<p>To determine Amazon's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>In step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.</p></li>\n <li><p>In step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).</p></li>\n <li><p>In step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the 10 years. Then, using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years, we arrive at a CAGR. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>With massive amounts of cash flow being generated from operations, Amazon could soon find itself with the good problem of having too much cash on its balance sheet. At some point over the next decade, Amazon will need to start returning capital to shareholders (via buybacks or dividends). I will share my analysis as to when that would happen some other time. However, for now, we will build our valuation without accounting for future capital return programs.</p>\n<p><b>Assumptions:</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82136b2cd82ebf242b95eb6d17e2f4b1\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"538\"></p>\n<p>Here are the results:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50a3cb8964e421080c530abc1b3d62bf\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"729\">Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</p>\n<p>As per my estimation, Amazon is worth ~$5,900 per share. The stock is trading at ~$3,400, which means Amazon has a near-term upside of +73.5% to its fair value. By utilizing conservative assumptions, we have ensured that our valuation has an ample margin of safety built into it.</p>\n<p>To calculate the total expected return, we simply grow the above free cash flow per share at our conservative growth rate, then assign a conservative multiple, i.e., 30x, to it for year 10. This creates a conservative intrinsic value projection by which we determine when and where to deploy our capital.</p>\n<p>Here are the results:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fb09f1799ac5ea2741e204766b4df3c\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"429\">Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</p>\n<p>As you can see above, Amazon's stock price could grow from ~$3,400 to ~$18,750 at a CAGR of ~18.6% in the next 10 years. Since we haven't considered future buybacks and dividends in today's valuation, there's a good chance that Amazon will outperform our expected return projections. My investment hurdle rate is 15%, and since Amazon's expected return is above this level, I rate Amazon a buy.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon's visionary founder, Jeff Bezos, is set to step down as Amazon CEO and transition to the role of Executive Chairman of the Board. His replacement is AWS CEO Andy Jassy, who is a very capable business leader, as evidenced by AWS's rise from zero to $50 billion annual revenue business in just 15 years. However, an executive leadership change of this magnitude carries several risks, and we will be keeping a keen eye on Andy over the next few earning calls to understand his vision for Amazon.</li>\n <li>Furthermore, the leadership transition comes at a time when Amazon is facing rising pressure from regulators and lawmakers. In the recent big tech antitrust hearing, most lawmakers came away with the conclusion that Amazon is anti competitive (along with Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Apple (AAPL)). With the threat of a DOJ investigation looming large, investors might be nervous about potential outcomes. Any monetary fine would simply be the cost of doing business. For years, Amazon's FCF machine - AWS - has supported the aggressive expansion (anti-competitive behavior) of its retail ecosystem. Therefore, a potential (government-enforced) break up of Amazon is viewed by many as a massive risk for the company. However, Amazon's retail ecosystem is self sustainable now (generates positive FCF), and any breakup could unlock value for shareholders. We shared our views on this topic in thisnote.</li>\n <li>Since Amazon's Ads business is not reliant on personal information for Ad targeting (unlike Facebook and Alphabet), we do not see any major headwinds for this still-emerging, yet crucial business line.</li>\n <li>In the near term, Amazon's e-commerce business could come under pressure as life returns to a new normal in the post-pandemic world. The massive jump in e-commerce revenue could reverse somewhat in upcoming quarters as people regain mobility.</li>\n <li>For the first time in over 15 years, Amazon lost market share to Shopify (SHOP) in 2020. This is a new challenge for Amazon, and the digitization efforts from retail giants like Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) are likely to result in greater competition for Amazon.</li>\n <li>Also, Microsoft's Azure (MSFT) is growing faster than AWS (albeit from a lower revenue base). Under Satya Nadella's leadership, Microsoft has emerged as a force to be reckoned with in the cloud services industry. If AWS fails to retain its market leadership position, Amazon could fall short of our projections.</li>\n <li>Amazon's Digital Ads business is likely to be critical to future success for the company. With the threat of potential regulations hanging over the digital ad industry, the numbers projected for this line of business may not materialize.</li>\n <li>The healthcare offering being built at Amazon could be the next big thing (business) to emerge from the company (like AWS, Prime Video, etc.). However, healthcare is a very complicated industry, and pure-plays like Teladoc have a much better chance of winning this market opportunity. Since we are well aware of Amazon's innovation capabilities, I wouldn't necessarily attribute this spending to be an unwarranted risk.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Concluding Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Amazon's higher-margin businesses are firing on all cylinders (accelerating growth), and while the stock has remained in a tight channel for almost a year now, the second half of 2021 could bring a fresh leg higher. As we saw earlier in this article, Amazon's operating margins are improving steadily due to the rapid growth of higher-margin businesses, i.e., AWS and Digital Ads.</p>\n<p>In the last 12 months or so, Amazon's stock has been consolidating in a sideways channel. During this time, trading multiples have normalized, and Amazon is now trading at pre-pandemic levels. With robust revenue growth and margin expansion on the horizon, Amazon's stock is set to move higher.</p>\n<p>Key Takeaway: I rate Amazon a buy at $3,400.</p>\n<p>Thanks for reading, remember to follow for more, and happy investing!</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon's Stock Is Ready For The Next Leg Higher</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon's Stock Is Ready For The Next Leg Higher\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 23:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435860-amazons-stock-is-ready-for-the-next-leg-higher><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAfter a year-long consolidation in stock prices, Amazon looks set to move higher due to continued momentum in its higher-margin businesses, i.e., AWS and Digital Ads.\nAmazon looks poised to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435860-amazons-stock-is-ready-for-the-next-leg-higher\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435860-amazons-stock-is-ready-for-the-next-leg-higher","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1127414335","content_text":"Summary\n\nAfter a year-long consolidation in stock prices, Amazon looks set to move higher due to continued momentum in its higher-margin businesses, i.e., AWS and Digital Ads.\nAmazon looks poised to blow past $500B in annual sales in 2021 with massive improvements in operating margins (profitability).\nThe stock is trading well below its fair value of $5,900 per share, and investors could generate ~19% CAGR returns over the next decade with Amazon.\nToday, I will share my analysis that suggests a fresh leg higher for Amazon's stock. Furthermore, we will discuss some of the key risks faced by the company.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nAmazon (AMZN) is delivering robust revenue and profitability growth in 2021 on top of the stellar numbers registered during the pandemic in 2020. However, investors watching Amazon's stock over the last 12 months or so would be led to think otherwise. After a big move last year, the stock has virtually frozen since mid 2020. In times where meme stock investors are making a lot of tendies (profits), Amazon's near-term underperformance has been disappointing for many long-term investors. However, things could look a lot different in the next 6-12 months. Amazon is set to scale new highs, and I will outline why that's the case in this article.\nThe primary driver of a company's price is free cash flow, and Amazon is poised to deliver a lot more of it. Amazon's higher-margin businesses, i.e., Amazon Web Services and Digital Ads (hidden in the \"Other\" segment in financial statements), are seeing accelerated growth. Furthermore, Amazon's e-commerce business also is delivering huge amounts of free cash flow at scale. Over the last 12 months, Amazon garnered $67B of cash from operations, which represents a 69% year-over-year jump. With business showing no signs of slowing down in the post-pandemic world and impending reduction in pandemic costs (billions of dollars per quarter), Amazon could very well deliver a big jump in free cash flow this year. As you may know, Amazon's balance sheet already is a fortress. However, the cash pile is getting so large that initiation of a capital return program could become imperative in the next three to four years.\nAfter evaluating Amazon using the LASV model, I deduced that the company is worth ~$5,900 per share. This projection means that Amazon is massively undervalued at the moment. Over the last 12 months, Amazon's trading multiples have shrunk back to normalized levels and future growth in revenue and free cash flow are very likely to result in higher stock prices.\nThe Tale Of A Year-Long Consolidation\nAt BTM, we own Amazon since it was at around $1,750. However, after a big rally in 2020, we rated the stock a modest buy for quite some time. And so, we are not really surprised by the year-long consolidation.\nHere's our extensive research work on Amazon:\n\nRetail Ecosystem -Amazon: Here Is What The Retail Segment Is Worth\nAmazon Web Services -Amazon: Here's What You Should Be Monitoring\nDigital Ads -Amazon: The 'Other' Segment May Be Worth More Than AWS\n\nSource: YCharts\nNow, our modest buy ratings from last year have been justified. Amazon has underperformed the S&P 500 index by around 6% in the previous 12-month period. With continued business momentum and stagnant stock price, Amazon's trading multiples have been falling down rapidly since August-2020.\n\nSource: YCharts\nAfter rapid normalization in trading multiples due to excellent financial performance, we upgraded the stock at BTM after the latest quarterly report. Although Amazon's underperformance over the last year has been demoralizing for long-term investors, I believe this is the right time to get onboard before a fresh rally ensues in the stock.\nWhy Is Amazon Ready To Move Higher?\nIn Q1 2021, Amazon recorded net sales of $108B (up +44% y/y) on the back of swift acceleration in AWS and Ad revenues (\"Other\" segment). Furthermore, we're seeing continued momentum in Amazon's e-commerce and streaming businesses. The following data serves as evidence for the same:\n\nSource:Amazon Q1 2021 Earnings Release\nWith acceleration in higher-margin revenue lines, Amazon's operating margin (profitability) is improving rapidly. In the latest quarter, Amazon's TTM operating margins reached an all-time high of 6.63%. At this point, I recommend you read our research coverage on Amazon (shared earlier in this article) to understand the dynamics at play in different business lines at the company.\n\nSource: YCharts\nAs you may already know, Amazon is an emerging operating leverage story. In Q1, Amazon's operating income increased by ~122% y/y to come in at $8.865B (rapid q/q acceleration). Over the next 12 months, Amazon would likely deliver an operating income of ~$40-50B. This massive jump in operating income will translate into greater amounts of free cash flow (and, by extension, a higher share price).\n\nSource: Amazon Q1 2021 Earnings Release\nSince 2018, Amazon has seen a big jump in Cash from Operations, which has gone up ~3.5x from ~$20B per year to ~$70B per year in 2021. Amazon, being Amazon, has invested massive amounts of this cash back into its business to drive future revenue growth, resulting in lower levels of free cash flow ($26.5B in 2020). Therefore, I believe Amazon's true free cash flow is much higher than its reported numbers.\nSource: YCharts\nThe massive amounts of cash being generated by Amazon are starting to pile up on the balance sheet (which had roughly $34B of cash at the end of last quarter). Further margin expansion is likely to create even more free cash flow over coming quarters and years, and this cash pile will only grow bigger. At some point in the near future, Amazon will need to start returning capital to shareholders through buybacks or dividends. My estimate is that Amazon would start a capital return program by 2025, but I will discuss this prediction in a separate note in the future.\n\nSource: YCharts\nAmazon is expected to record ~$500B in annual sales in 2021 and I expect Amazon to take over the title of the \"largest company by sales\" in 2022. In my opinion, Amazon still has massive growth left in its armory. According to consensus analyst estimates on Seeking Alpha, Amazon would likely be raking in revenue of $1.5T per year by 2030.\n\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nI believe these numbers are achievable. In fact, they're very likely to materialize over the next decade. AWS, Digital Ads, and Amazon Care (in-house healthcare offering (at least for now)) are likely to be the primary drivers of future free cash flow for the company. Now, let's estimate the fair value and expected returns for Amazon.\nFair Value And Expected Returns\nTo determine Amazon's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:\n\nIn step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.\nIn step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).\nIn step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the 10 years. Then, using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years, we arrive at a CAGR. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.\n\nWith massive amounts of cash flow being generated from operations, Amazon could soon find itself with the good problem of having too much cash on its balance sheet. At some point over the next decade, Amazon will need to start returning capital to shareholders (via buybacks or dividends). I will share my analysis as to when that would happen some other time. However, for now, we will build our valuation without accounting for future capital return programs.\nAssumptions:\n\nHere are the results:\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nAs per my estimation, Amazon is worth ~$5,900 per share. The stock is trading at ~$3,400, which means Amazon has a near-term upside of +73.5% to its fair value. By utilizing conservative assumptions, we have ensured that our valuation has an ample margin of safety built into it.\nTo calculate the total expected return, we simply grow the above free cash flow per share at our conservative growth rate, then assign a conservative multiple, i.e., 30x, to it for year 10. This creates a conservative intrinsic value projection by which we determine when and where to deploy our capital.\nHere are the results:\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nAs you can see above, Amazon's stock price could grow from ~$3,400 to ~$18,750 at a CAGR of ~18.6% in the next 10 years. Since we haven't considered future buybacks and dividends in today's valuation, there's a good chance that Amazon will outperform our expected return projections. My investment hurdle rate is 15%, and since Amazon's expected return is above this level, I rate Amazon a buy.\nRisks\n\nAmazon's visionary founder, Jeff Bezos, is set to step down as Amazon CEO and transition to the role of Executive Chairman of the Board. His replacement is AWS CEO Andy Jassy, who is a very capable business leader, as evidenced by AWS's rise from zero to $50 billion annual revenue business in just 15 years. However, an executive leadership change of this magnitude carries several risks, and we will be keeping a keen eye on Andy over the next few earning calls to understand his vision for Amazon.\nFurthermore, the leadership transition comes at a time when Amazon is facing rising pressure from regulators and lawmakers. In the recent big tech antitrust hearing, most lawmakers came away with the conclusion that Amazon is anti competitive (along with Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Apple (AAPL)). With the threat of a DOJ investigation looming large, investors might be nervous about potential outcomes. Any monetary fine would simply be the cost of doing business. For years, Amazon's FCF machine - AWS - has supported the aggressive expansion (anti-competitive behavior) of its retail ecosystem. Therefore, a potential (government-enforced) break up of Amazon is viewed by many as a massive risk for the company. However, Amazon's retail ecosystem is self sustainable now (generates positive FCF), and any breakup could unlock value for shareholders. We shared our views on this topic in thisnote.\nSince Amazon's Ads business is not reliant on personal information for Ad targeting (unlike Facebook and Alphabet), we do not see any major headwinds for this still-emerging, yet crucial business line.\nIn the near term, Amazon's e-commerce business could come under pressure as life returns to a new normal in the post-pandemic world. The massive jump in e-commerce revenue could reverse somewhat in upcoming quarters as people regain mobility.\nFor the first time in over 15 years, Amazon lost market share to Shopify (SHOP) in 2020. This is a new challenge for Amazon, and the digitization efforts from retail giants like Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) are likely to result in greater competition for Amazon.\nAlso, Microsoft's Azure (MSFT) is growing faster than AWS (albeit from a lower revenue base). Under Satya Nadella's leadership, Microsoft has emerged as a force to be reckoned with in the cloud services industry. If AWS fails to retain its market leadership position, Amazon could fall short of our projections.\nAmazon's Digital Ads business is likely to be critical to future success for the company. With the threat of potential regulations hanging over the digital ad industry, the numbers projected for this line of business may not materialize.\nThe healthcare offering being built at Amazon could be the next big thing (business) to emerge from the company (like AWS, Prime Video, etc.). However, healthcare is a very complicated industry, and pure-plays like Teladoc have a much better chance of winning this market opportunity. Since we are well aware of Amazon's innovation capabilities, I wouldn't necessarily attribute this spending to be an unwarranted risk.\n\nConcluding Thoughts\nAmazon's higher-margin businesses are firing on all cylinders (accelerating growth), and while the stock has remained in a tight channel for almost a year now, the second half of 2021 could bring a fresh leg higher. As we saw earlier in this article, Amazon's operating margins are improving steadily due to the rapid growth of higher-margin businesses, i.e., AWS and Digital Ads.\nIn the last 12 months or so, Amazon's stock has been consolidating in a sideways channel. During this time, trading multiples have normalized, and Amazon is now trading at pre-pandemic levels. With robust revenue growth and margin expansion on the horizon, Amazon's stock is set to move higher.\nKey Takeaway: I rate Amazon a buy at $3,400.\nThanks for reading, remember to follow for more, and happy investing!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183274963,"gmtCreate":1623334383152,"gmtModify":1704201186664,"author":{"id":"3554890351858233","authorId":"3554890351858233","name":"Trev","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9016d2c3be7a6a9ebf2ff8c7fb390114","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554890351858233","authorIdStr":"3554890351858233"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183274963","repostId":"1119957571","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":468,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183272050,"gmtCreate":1623334352270,"gmtModify":1704201179987,"author":{"id":"3554890351858233","authorId":"3554890351858233","name":"Trev","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9016d2c3be7a6a9ebf2ff8c7fb390114","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554890351858233","authorIdStr":"3554890351858233"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183272050","repostId":"1128810191","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128810191","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623307595,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128810191?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 14:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Company spending is 'going ballistic.' Wall Street analysts expect these stocks to benefit","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128810191","media":"cnbc","summary":"Firms are “flush with cash” and spending is at its highest in history, according to investment firmJefferies, which recommended dozens of U.S. and global stocks to play the trend.Jefferies’ capital expenditure — or capex — indicator is “going ballistic,” the bank said in a research note Monday, and there has been a surge in corporate spending on big-ticket goods such as ships, as well as on smaller items like plant equipment.Investment bankJPMorganalso picked stocks set to get a boost from the c","content":"<div>\n<p>Firms are “flush with cash” and spending is at its highest in history, according to investment firmJefferies, which recommended dozens of U.S. and global stocks to play the trend.\nJefferies’ capital ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/10/investment-banks-pick-top-industrials-and-tech-stocks-to-buy.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Company spending is 'going ballistic.' Wall Street analysts expect these stocks to benefit</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCompany spending is 'going ballistic.' Wall Street analysts expect these stocks to benefit\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 14:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/10/investment-banks-pick-top-industrials-and-tech-stocks-to-buy.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Firms are “flush with cash” and spending is at its highest in history, according to investment firmJefferies, which recommended dozens of U.S. and global stocks to play the trend.\nJefferies’ capital ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/10/investment-banks-pick-top-industrials-and-tech-stocks-to-buy.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/10/investment-banks-pick-top-industrials-and-tech-stocks-to-buy.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1128810191","content_text":"Firms are “flush with cash” and spending is at its highest in history, according to investment firmJefferies, which recommended dozens of U.S. and global stocks to play the trend.\nJefferies’ capital expenditure — or capex — indicator is “going ballistic,” the bank said in a research note Monday, and there has been a surge in corporate spending on big-ticket goods such as ships, as well as on smaller items like plant equipment.\nInvestment bankJPMorganalso picked stocks set to get a boost from the capital expenditure “bright spot.” It created two new lists of stocks likely to benefit from President Joe Biden’s $2.3 trillion infrastructure plan, as well as the E.U.’s 750 billion euro ($912 billion) recovery fund.\nThe banks’ stock picks include:\nIndustrials stocks\nMost of Jefferies buy-rated picks are industrials. It said U.S. firms were benefiting from a “huge turnaround” in capex and its picks include semiconductor firmAnalog Devicesand truck-makerPaccar. It also likes farm equipment companyJohn Deere, as well as air conditioning company Carrier Global.\nWhen it comes to international corporate spending, the analysts, led by Sean Darby, said: “We were wrong! It is not just the US that is enjoying a huge turnaround in capital investment intentions – even outside of Tech – but also the Rest-of-the-World.”\nJefferies’ international picks include Swedish leisure product manufacturerDometic Groupand German luxury RV-makerKnaus Tabbert, as well as Japanese firmHitachi Constructionand Chinese engineering firmChina Railway Group. All are buy-rated.\nEnergy and materials\nIn a note Monday, JPMorgan said it had put together two baskets of stocks: those set to benefit from President Biden’s infrastructure plan, and those likely to do well from the EU recovery fund. Firms that appear on both lists include steel firmArcelorMittaland Spanish energy companiesEDP RenewablesandIberdrola.\nTechnology and communications\nAnalysts from JPMorgan also picked semiconductor firmsInfineon TechnologiesandSTMicroelectronicsfor both their U.S. and European lists, as well as German firmDeutsche Telekom.\nFirms that appear on both Jefferies’ and JPMorgan’s lists include medical technology groupSiemens Healthineers, French train manufacturerAlstomand security firmAssa Abloy.\nA number of factors have combined to stimulate a capital spending surge, according to Jefferies’ analysts. These include old equipment that needs replacing, “buoyant” CEO confidence, an earnings turnaround leaving balance sheets “flush with cash,” and low industrial inventories.\n“Our US capex indicator has quite literally gone ballistic. It took around six years from the GFC [global financial crisis] to 2015 before a capex recovery emerged in the previous cycle. This one has taken approximately 13 months and has surged to the highest reading in history,” Jefferies’ analysts wrote.\nFor JPMorgan, company profits have also meant a surge in spending. “Corporate capex is on an accelerating path this year, given the strong rebound in corporate profitability, where profits have tended to lead capex pretty consistently. Further, bank lending standards are continuing to improve, which helps capex decisions,” the bank’s analysts wrote.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118704113,"gmtCreate":1622760706432,"gmtModify":1704190484205,"author":{"id":"3554890351858233","authorId":"3554890351858233","name":"Trev","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9016d2c3be7a6a9ebf2ff8c7fb390114","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554890351858233","authorIdStr":"3554890351858233"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ouch","listText":"Ouch","text":"Ouch","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118704113","repostId":"1171121102","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375111357,"gmtCreate":1619314917479,"gmtModify":1704722301929,"author":{"id":"3554890351858233","authorId":"3554890351858233","name":"Trev","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9016d2c3be7a6a9ebf2ff8c7fb390114","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554890351858233","authorIdStr":"3554890351858233"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"True","listText":"True","text":"True","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375111357","repostId":"2129843350","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":292,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":120155868,"gmtCreate":1624316741954,"gmtModify":1703833085036,"author":{"id":"3554890351858233","authorId":"3554890351858233","name":"Trev","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9016d2c3be7a6a9ebf2ff8c7fb390114","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554890351858233","authorIdStr":"3554890351858233"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to go","listText":"Time to go","text":"Time to go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120155868","repostId":"1127414335","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127414335","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624288763,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127414335?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 23:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon's Stock Is Ready For The Next Leg Higher","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127414335","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAfter a year-long consolidation in stock prices, Amazon looks set to move higher due to con","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>After a year-long consolidation in stock prices, Amazon looks set to move higher due to continued momentum in its higher-margin businesses, i.e., AWS and Digital Ads.</li>\n <li>Amazon looks poised to blow past $500B in annual sales in 2021 with massive improvements in operating margins (profitability).</li>\n <li>The stock is trading well below its fair value of $5,900 per share, and investors could generate ~19% CAGR returns over the next decade with Amazon.</li>\n <li>Today, I will share my analysis that suggests a fresh leg higher for Amazon's stock. Furthermore, we will discuss some of the key risks faced by the company.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Amazon (AMZN) is delivering robust revenue and profitability growth in 2021 on top of the stellar numbers registered during the pandemic in 2020. However, investors watching Amazon's stock over the last 12 months or so would be led to think otherwise. After a big move last year, the stock has virtually frozen since mid 2020. In times where meme stock investors are making a lot of tendies (profits), Amazon's near-term underperformance has been disappointing for many long-term investors. However, things could look a lot different in the next 6-12 months. Amazon is set to scale new highs, and I will outline why that's the case in this article.</p>\n<p>The primary driver of a company's price is free cash flow, and Amazon is poised to deliver a lot more of it. Amazon's higher-margin businesses, i.e., Amazon Web Services and Digital Ads (hidden in the \"Other\" segment in financial statements), are seeing accelerated growth. Furthermore, Amazon's e-commerce business also is delivering huge amounts of free cash flow at scale. Over the last 12 months, Amazon garnered $67B of cash from operations, which represents a 69% year-over-year jump. With business showing no signs of slowing down in the post-pandemic world and impending reduction in pandemic costs (billions of dollars per quarter), Amazon could very well deliver a big jump in free cash flow this year. As you may know, Amazon's balance sheet already is a fortress. However, the cash pile is getting so large that initiation of a capital return program could become imperative in the next three to four years.</p>\n<p>After evaluating Amazon using the LASV model, I deduced that the company is worth ~$5,900 per share. This projection means that Amazon is massively undervalued at the moment. Over the last 12 months, Amazon's trading multiples have shrunk back to normalized levels and future growth in revenue and free cash flow are very likely to result in higher stock prices.</p>\n<p><b>The Tale Of A Year-Long Consolidation</b></p>\n<p>At BTM, we own Amazon since it was at around $1,750. However, after a big rally in 2020, we rated the stock a modest buy for quite some time. And so, we are not really surprised by the year-long consolidation.</p>\n<p>Here's our extensive research work on Amazon:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Retail Ecosystem -Amazon: Here Is What The Retail Segment Is Worth</li>\n <li>Amazon Web Services -Amazon: Here's What You Should Be Monitoring</li>\n <li>Digital Ads -Amazon: The 'Other' Segment May Be Worth More Than AWS</li>\n</ol>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86ef0b4ba9477ffe4662dd02b4a4fe56\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: YCharts</p>\n<p>Now, our modest buy ratings from last year have been justified. Amazon has underperformed the S&amp;P 500 index by around 6% in the previous 12-month period. With continued business momentum and stagnant stock price, Amazon's trading multiples have been falling down rapidly since August-2020.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450a291ce832606dc4568f5b000a234b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"></p>\n<p>Source: YCharts</p>\n<p>After rapid normalization in trading multiples due to excellent financial performance, we upgraded the stock at BTM after the latest quarterly report. Although Amazon's underperformance over the last year has been demoralizing for long-term investors, I believe this is the right time to get onboard before a fresh rally ensues in the stock.</p>\n<p><b>Why Is Amazon Ready To Move Higher?</b></p>\n<p>In Q1 2021, Amazon recorded net sales of $108B (up +44% y/y) on the back of swift acceleration in AWS and Ad revenues (\"Other\" segment). Furthermore, we're seeing continued momentum in Amazon's e-commerce and streaming businesses. The following data serves as evidence for the same:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/484d6ffb34aa711d2460f56878a19b30\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:Amazon Q1 2021 Earnings Release</p>\n<p>With acceleration in higher-margin revenue lines, Amazon's operating margin (profitability) is improving rapidly. In the latest quarter, Amazon's TTM operating margins reached an all-time high of 6.63%. At this point, I recommend you read our research coverage on Amazon (shared earlier in this article) to understand the dynamics at play in different business lines at the company.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f684da9379808e65eb00bac24f21bd5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"></p>\n<p>Source: YCharts</p>\n<p>As you may already know, Amazon is an emerging operating leverage story. In Q1, Amazon's operating income increased by ~122% y/y to come in at $8.865B (rapid q/q acceleration). Over the next 12 months, Amazon would likely deliver an operating income of ~$40-50B. This massive jump in operating income will translate into greater amounts of free cash flow (and, by extension, a higher share price).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de1ec1d647bed5d59e91bdaa0535d25e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\"></p>\n<p>Source:&nbsp;Amazon Q1 2021 Earnings Release</p>\n<p>Since 2018, Amazon has seen a big jump in Cash from Operations, which has gone up ~3.5x from ~$20B per year to ~$70B per year in 2021. Amazon, being Amazon, has invested massive amounts of this cash back into its business to drive future revenue growth, resulting in lower levels of free cash flow ($26.5B in 2020). Therefore, I believe Amazon's true free cash flow is much higher than its reported numbers.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f1ccee71f8675c6cabd16cf4e08733d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: YCharts</p>\n<p>The massive amounts of cash being generated by Amazon are starting to pile up on the balance sheet (which had roughly $34B of cash at the end of last quarter). Further margin expansion is likely to create even more free cash flow over coming quarters and years, and this cash pile will only grow bigger. At some point in the near future, Amazon will need to start returning capital to shareholders through buybacks or dividends. My estimate is that Amazon would start a capital return program by 2025, but I will discuss this prediction in a separate note in the future.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c041f8732f0e9557d632f4bc3444b54\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"></p>\n<p>Source: YCharts</p>\n<p>Amazon is expected to record ~$500B in annual sales in 2021 and I expect Amazon to take over the title of the \"largest company by sales\" in 2022. In my opinion, Amazon still has massive growth left in its armory. According to consensus analyst estimates on Seeking Alpha, Amazon would likely be raking in revenue of $1.5T per year by 2030.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6b99e2dd54b3885cd7542d213be0429\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"635\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:Seeking Alpha</p>\n<p>I believe these numbers are achievable. In fact, they're very likely to materialize over the next decade. AWS, Digital Ads, and Amazon Care (in-house healthcare offering (at least for now)) are likely to be the primary drivers of future free cash flow for the company. Now, let's estimate the fair value and expected returns for Amazon.</p>\n<p><b>Fair Value And Expected Returns</b></p>\n<p>To determine Amazon's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>In step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.</p></li>\n <li><p>In step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).</p></li>\n <li><p>In step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the 10 years. Then, using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years, we arrive at a CAGR. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>With massive amounts of cash flow being generated from operations, Amazon could soon find itself with the good problem of having too much cash on its balance sheet. At some point over the next decade, Amazon will need to start returning capital to shareholders (via buybacks or dividends). I will share my analysis as to when that would happen some other time. However, for now, we will build our valuation without accounting for future capital return programs.</p>\n<p><b>Assumptions:</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82136b2cd82ebf242b95eb6d17e2f4b1\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"538\"></p>\n<p>Here are the results:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50a3cb8964e421080c530abc1b3d62bf\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"729\">Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</p>\n<p>As per my estimation, Amazon is worth ~$5,900 per share. The stock is trading at ~$3,400, which means Amazon has a near-term upside of +73.5% to its fair value. By utilizing conservative assumptions, we have ensured that our valuation has an ample margin of safety built into it.</p>\n<p>To calculate the total expected return, we simply grow the above free cash flow per share at our conservative growth rate, then assign a conservative multiple, i.e., 30x, to it for year 10. This creates a conservative intrinsic value projection by which we determine when and where to deploy our capital.</p>\n<p>Here are the results:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fb09f1799ac5ea2741e204766b4df3c\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"429\">Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</p>\n<p>As you can see above, Amazon's stock price could grow from ~$3,400 to ~$18,750 at a CAGR of ~18.6% in the next 10 years. Since we haven't considered future buybacks and dividends in today's valuation, there's a good chance that Amazon will outperform our expected return projections. My investment hurdle rate is 15%, and since Amazon's expected return is above this level, I rate Amazon a buy.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon's visionary founder, Jeff Bezos, is set to step down as Amazon CEO and transition to the role of Executive Chairman of the Board. His replacement is AWS CEO Andy Jassy, who is a very capable business leader, as evidenced by AWS's rise from zero to $50 billion annual revenue business in just 15 years. However, an executive leadership change of this magnitude carries several risks, and we will be keeping a keen eye on Andy over the next few earning calls to understand his vision for Amazon.</li>\n <li>Furthermore, the leadership transition comes at a time when Amazon is facing rising pressure from regulators and lawmakers. In the recent big tech antitrust hearing, most lawmakers came away with the conclusion that Amazon is anti competitive (along with Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Apple (AAPL)). With the threat of a DOJ investigation looming large, investors might be nervous about potential outcomes. Any monetary fine would simply be the cost of doing business. For years, Amazon's FCF machine - AWS - has supported the aggressive expansion (anti-competitive behavior) of its retail ecosystem. Therefore, a potential (government-enforced) break up of Amazon is viewed by many as a massive risk for the company. However, Amazon's retail ecosystem is self sustainable now (generates positive FCF), and any breakup could unlock value for shareholders. We shared our views on this topic in thisnote.</li>\n <li>Since Amazon's Ads business is not reliant on personal information for Ad targeting (unlike Facebook and Alphabet), we do not see any major headwinds for this still-emerging, yet crucial business line.</li>\n <li>In the near term, Amazon's e-commerce business could come under pressure as life returns to a new normal in the post-pandemic world. The massive jump in e-commerce revenue could reverse somewhat in upcoming quarters as people regain mobility.</li>\n <li>For the first time in over 15 years, Amazon lost market share to Shopify (SHOP) in 2020. This is a new challenge for Amazon, and the digitization efforts from retail giants like Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) are likely to result in greater competition for Amazon.</li>\n <li>Also, Microsoft's Azure (MSFT) is growing faster than AWS (albeit from a lower revenue base). Under Satya Nadella's leadership, Microsoft has emerged as a force to be reckoned with in the cloud services industry. If AWS fails to retain its market leadership position, Amazon could fall short of our projections.</li>\n <li>Amazon's Digital Ads business is likely to be critical to future success for the company. With the threat of potential regulations hanging over the digital ad industry, the numbers projected for this line of business may not materialize.</li>\n <li>The healthcare offering being built at Amazon could be the next big thing (business) to emerge from the company (like AWS, Prime Video, etc.). However, healthcare is a very complicated industry, and pure-plays like Teladoc have a much better chance of winning this market opportunity. Since we are well aware of Amazon's innovation capabilities, I wouldn't necessarily attribute this spending to be an unwarranted risk.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Concluding Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Amazon's higher-margin businesses are firing on all cylinders (accelerating growth), and while the stock has remained in a tight channel for almost a year now, the second half of 2021 could bring a fresh leg higher. As we saw earlier in this article, Amazon's operating margins are improving steadily due to the rapid growth of higher-margin businesses, i.e., AWS and Digital Ads.</p>\n<p>In the last 12 months or so, Amazon's stock has been consolidating in a sideways channel. During this time, trading multiples have normalized, and Amazon is now trading at pre-pandemic levels. With robust revenue growth and margin expansion on the horizon, Amazon's stock is set to move higher.</p>\n<p>Key Takeaway: I rate Amazon a buy at $3,400.</p>\n<p>Thanks for reading, remember to follow for more, and happy investing!</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon's Stock Is Ready For The Next Leg Higher</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon's Stock Is Ready For The Next Leg Higher\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 23:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435860-amazons-stock-is-ready-for-the-next-leg-higher><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAfter a year-long consolidation in stock prices, Amazon looks set to move higher due to continued momentum in its higher-margin businesses, i.e., AWS and Digital Ads.\nAmazon looks poised to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435860-amazons-stock-is-ready-for-the-next-leg-higher\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435860-amazons-stock-is-ready-for-the-next-leg-higher","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1127414335","content_text":"Summary\n\nAfter a year-long consolidation in stock prices, Amazon looks set to move higher due to continued momentum in its higher-margin businesses, i.e., AWS and Digital Ads.\nAmazon looks poised to blow past $500B in annual sales in 2021 with massive improvements in operating margins (profitability).\nThe stock is trading well below its fair value of $5,900 per share, and investors could generate ~19% CAGR returns over the next decade with Amazon.\nToday, I will share my analysis that suggests a fresh leg higher for Amazon's stock. Furthermore, we will discuss some of the key risks faced by the company.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nAmazon (AMZN) is delivering robust revenue and profitability growth in 2021 on top of the stellar numbers registered during the pandemic in 2020. However, investors watching Amazon's stock over the last 12 months or so would be led to think otherwise. After a big move last year, the stock has virtually frozen since mid 2020. In times where meme stock investors are making a lot of tendies (profits), Amazon's near-term underperformance has been disappointing for many long-term investors. However, things could look a lot different in the next 6-12 months. Amazon is set to scale new highs, and I will outline why that's the case in this article.\nThe primary driver of a company's price is free cash flow, and Amazon is poised to deliver a lot more of it. Amazon's higher-margin businesses, i.e., Amazon Web Services and Digital Ads (hidden in the \"Other\" segment in financial statements), are seeing accelerated growth. Furthermore, Amazon's e-commerce business also is delivering huge amounts of free cash flow at scale. Over the last 12 months, Amazon garnered $67B of cash from operations, which represents a 69% year-over-year jump. With business showing no signs of slowing down in the post-pandemic world and impending reduction in pandemic costs (billions of dollars per quarter), Amazon could very well deliver a big jump in free cash flow this year. As you may know, Amazon's balance sheet already is a fortress. However, the cash pile is getting so large that initiation of a capital return program could become imperative in the next three to four years.\nAfter evaluating Amazon using the LASV model, I deduced that the company is worth ~$5,900 per share. This projection means that Amazon is massively undervalued at the moment. Over the last 12 months, Amazon's trading multiples have shrunk back to normalized levels and future growth in revenue and free cash flow are very likely to result in higher stock prices.\nThe Tale Of A Year-Long Consolidation\nAt BTM, we own Amazon since it was at around $1,750. However, after a big rally in 2020, we rated the stock a modest buy for quite some time. And so, we are not really surprised by the year-long consolidation.\nHere's our extensive research work on Amazon:\n\nRetail Ecosystem -Amazon: Here Is What The Retail Segment Is Worth\nAmazon Web Services -Amazon: Here's What You Should Be Monitoring\nDigital Ads -Amazon: The 'Other' Segment May Be Worth More Than AWS\n\nSource: YCharts\nNow, our modest buy ratings from last year have been justified. Amazon has underperformed the S&P 500 index by around 6% in the previous 12-month period. With continued business momentum and stagnant stock price, Amazon's trading multiples have been falling down rapidly since August-2020.\n\nSource: YCharts\nAfter rapid normalization in trading multiples due to excellent financial performance, we upgraded the stock at BTM after the latest quarterly report. Although Amazon's underperformance over the last year has been demoralizing for long-term investors, I believe this is the right time to get onboard before a fresh rally ensues in the stock.\nWhy Is Amazon Ready To Move Higher?\nIn Q1 2021, Amazon recorded net sales of $108B (up +44% y/y) on the back of swift acceleration in AWS and Ad revenues (\"Other\" segment). Furthermore, we're seeing continued momentum in Amazon's e-commerce and streaming businesses. The following data serves as evidence for the same:\n\nSource:Amazon Q1 2021 Earnings Release\nWith acceleration in higher-margin revenue lines, Amazon's operating margin (profitability) is improving rapidly. In the latest quarter, Amazon's TTM operating margins reached an all-time high of 6.63%. At this point, I recommend you read our research coverage on Amazon (shared earlier in this article) to understand the dynamics at play in different business lines at the company.\n\nSource: YCharts\nAs you may already know, Amazon is an emerging operating leverage story. In Q1, Amazon's operating income increased by ~122% y/y to come in at $8.865B (rapid q/q acceleration). Over the next 12 months, Amazon would likely deliver an operating income of ~$40-50B. This massive jump in operating income will translate into greater amounts of free cash flow (and, by extension, a higher share price).\n\nSource: Amazon Q1 2021 Earnings Release\nSince 2018, Amazon has seen a big jump in Cash from Operations, which has gone up ~3.5x from ~$20B per year to ~$70B per year in 2021. Amazon, being Amazon, has invested massive amounts of this cash back into its business to drive future revenue growth, resulting in lower levels of free cash flow ($26.5B in 2020). Therefore, I believe Amazon's true free cash flow is much higher than its reported numbers.\nSource: YCharts\nThe massive amounts of cash being generated by Amazon are starting to pile up on the balance sheet (which had roughly $34B of cash at the end of last quarter). Further margin expansion is likely to create even more free cash flow over coming quarters and years, and this cash pile will only grow bigger. At some point in the near future, Amazon will need to start returning capital to shareholders through buybacks or dividends. My estimate is that Amazon would start a capital return program by 2025, but I will discuss this prediction in a separate note in the future.\n\nSource: YCharts\nAmazon is expected to record ~$500B in annual sales in 2021 and I expect Amazon to take over the title of the \"largest company by sales\" in 2022. In my opinion, Amazon still has massive growth left in its armory. According to consensus analyst estimates on Seeking Alpha, Amazon would likely be raking in revenue of $1.5T per year by 2030.\n\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nI believe these numbers are achievable. In fact, they're very likely to materialize over the next decade. AWS, Digital Ads, and Amazon Care (in-house healthcare offering (at least for now)) are likely to be the primary drivers of future free cash flow for the company. Now, let's estimate the fair value and expected returns for Amazon.\nFair Value And Expected Returns\nTo determine Amazon's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:\n\nIn step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.\nIn step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).\nIn step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the 10 years. Then, using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years, we arrive at a CAGR. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.\n\nWith massive amounts of cash flow being generated from operations, Amazon could soon find itself with the good problem of having too much cash on its balance sheet. At some point over the next decade, Amazon will need to start returning capital to shareholders (via buybacks or dividends). I will share my analysis as to when that would happen some other time. However, for now, we will build our valuation without accounting for future capital return programs.\nAssumptions:\n\nHere are the results:\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nAs per my estimation, Amazon is worth ~$5,900 per share. The stock is trading at ~$3,400, which means Amazon has a near-term upside of +73.5% to its fair value. By utilizing conservative assumptions, we have ensured that our valuation has an ample margin of safety built into it.\nTo calculate the total expected return, we simply grow the above free cash flow per share at our conservative growth rate, then assign a conservative multiple, i.e., 30x, to it for year 10. This creates a conservative intrinsic value projection by which we determine when and where to deploy our capital.\nHere are the results:\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nAs you can see above, Amazon's stock price could grow from ~$3,400 to ~$18,750 at a CAGR of ~18.6% in the next 10 years. Since we haven't considered future buybacks and dividends in today's valuation, there's a good chance that Amazon will outperform our expected return projections. My investment hurdle rate is 15%, and since Amazon's expected return is above this level, I rate Amazon a buy.\nRisks\n\nAmazon's visionary founder, Jeff Bezos, is set to step down as Amazon CEO and transition to the role of Executive Chairman of the Board. His replacement is AWS CEO Andy Jassy, who is a very capable business leader, as evidenced by AWS's rise from zero to $50 billion annual revenue business in just 15 years. However, an executive leadership change of this magnitude carries several risks, and we will be keeping a keen eye on Andy over the next few earning calls to understand his vision for Amazon.\nFurthermore, the leadership transition comes at a time when Amazon is facing rising pressure from regulators and lawmakers. In the recent big tech antitrust hearing, most lawmakers came away with the conclusion that Amazon is anti competitive (along with Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Apple (AAPL)). With the threat of a DOJ investigation looming large, investors might be nervous about potential outcomes. Any monetary fine would simply be the cost of doing business. For years, Amazon's FCF machine - AWS - has supported the aggressive expansion (anti-competitive behavior) of its retail ecosystem. Therefore, a potential (government-enforced) break up of Amazon is viewed by many as a massive risk for the company. However, Amazon's retail ecosystem is self sustainable now (generates positive FCF), and any breakup could unlock value for shareholders. We shared our views on this topic in thisnote.\nSince Amazon's Ads business is not reliant on personal information for Ad targeting (unlike Facebook and Alphabet), we do not see any major headwinds for this still-emerging, yet crucial business line.\nIn the near term, Amazon's e-commerce business could come under pressure as life returns to a new normal in the post-pandemic world. The massive jump in e-commerce revenue could reverse somewhat in upcoming quarters as people regain mobility.\nFor the first time in over 15 years, Amazon lost market share to Shopify (SHOP) in 2020. This is a new challenge for Amazon, and the digitization efforts from retail giants like Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) are likely to result in greater competition for Amazon.\nAlso, Microsoft's Azure (MSFT) is growing faster than AWS (albeit from a lower revenue base). Under Satya Nadella's leadership, Microsoft has emerged as a force to be reckoned with in the cloud services industry. If AWS fails to retain its market leadership position, Amazon could fall short of our projections.\nAmazon's Digital Ads business is likely to be critical to future success for the company. With the threat of potential regulations hanging over the digital ad industry, the numbers projected for this line of business may not materialize.\nThe healthcare offering being built at Amazon could be the next big thing (business) to emerge from the company (like AWS, Prime Video, etc.). However, healthcare is a very complicated industry, and pure-plays like Teladoc have a much better chance of winning this market opportunity. Since we are well aware of Amazon's innovation capabilities, I wouldn't necessarily attribute this spending to be an unwarranted risk.\n\nConcluding Thoughts\nAmazon's higher-margin businesses are firing on all cylinders (accelerating growth), and while the stock has remained in a tight channel for almost a year now, the second half of 2021 could bring a fresh leg higher. As we saw earlier in this article, Amazon's operating margins are improving steadily due to the rapid growth of higher-margin businesses, i.e., AWS and Digital Ads.\nIn the last 12 months or so, Amazon's stock has been consolidating in a sideways channel. During this time, trading multiples have normalized, and Amazon is now trading at pre-pandemic levels. With robust revenue growth and margin expansion on the horizon, Amazon's stock is set to move higher.\nKey Takeaway: I rate Amazon a buy at $3,400.\nThanks for reading, remember to follow for more, and happy investing!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183272050,"gmtCreate":1623334352270,"gmtModify":1704201179987,"author":{"id":"3554890351858233","authorId":"3554890351858233","name":"Trev","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9016d2c3be7a6a9ebf2ff8c7fb390114","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554890351858233","authorIdStr":"3554890351858233"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183272050","repostId":"1128810191","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128810191","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623307595,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128810191?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 14:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Company spending is 'going ballistic.' Wall Street analysts expect these stocks to benefit","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128810191","media":"cnbc","summary":"Firms are “flush with cash” and spending is at its highest in history, according to investment firmJefferies, which recommended dozens of U.S. and global stocks to play the trend.Jefferies’ capital expenditure — or capex — indicator is “going ballistic,” the bank said in a research note Monday, and there has been a surge in corporate spending on big-ticket goods such as ships, as well as on smaller items like plant equipment.Investment bankJPMorganalso picked stocks set to get a boost from the c","content":"<div>\n<p>Firms are “flush with cash” and spending is at its highest in history, according to investment firmJefferies, which recommended dozens of U.S. and global stocks to play the trend.\nJefferies’ capital ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/10/investment-banks-pick-top-industrials-and-tech-stocks-to-buy.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Company spending is 'going ballistic.' Wall Street analysts expect these stocks to benefit</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCompany spending is 'going ballistic.' Wall Street analysts expect these stocks to benefit\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 14:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/10/investment-banks-pick-top-industrials-and-tech-stocks-to-buy.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Firms are “flush with cash” and spending is at its highest in history, according to investment firmJefferies, which recommended dozens of U.S. and global stocks to play the trend.\nJefferies’ capital ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/10/investment-banks-pick-top-industrials-and-tech-stocks-to-buy.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/10/investment-banks-pick-top-industrials-and-tech-stocks-to-buy.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1128810191","content_text":"Firms are “flush with cash” and spending is at its highest in history, according to investment firmJefferies, which recommended dozens of U.S. and global stocks to play the trend.\nJefferies’ capital expenditure — or capex — indicator is “going ballistic,” the bank said in a research note Monday, and there has been a surge in corporate spending on big-ticket goods such as ships, as well as on smaller items like plant equipment.\nInvestment bankJPMorganalso picked stocks set to get a boost from the capital expenditure “bright spot.” It created two new lists of stocks likely to benefit from President Joe Biden’s $2.3 trillion infrastructure plan, as well as the E.U.’s 750 billion euro ($912 billion) recovery fund.\nThe banks’ stock picks include:\nIndustrials stocks\nMost of Jefferies buy-rated picks are industrials. It said U.S. firms were benefiting from a “huge turnaround” in capex and its picks include semiconductor firmAnalog Devicesand truck-makerPaccar. It also likes farm equipment companyJohn Deere, as well as air conditioning company Carrier Global.\nWhen it comes to international corporate spending, the analysts, led by Sean Darby, said: “We were wrong! It is not just the US that is enjoying a huge turnaround in capital investment intentions – even outside of Tech – but also the Rest-of-the-World.”\nJefferies’ international picks include Swedish leisure product manufacturerDometic Groupand German luxury RV-makerKnaus Tabbert, as well as Japanese firmHitachi Constructionand Chinese engineering firmChina Railway Group. All are buy-rated.\nEnergy and materials\nIn a note Monday, JPMorgan said it had put together two baskets of stocks: those set to benefit from President Biden’s infrastructure plan, and those likely to do well from the EU recovery fund. Firms that appear on both lists include steel firmArcelorMittaland Spanish energy companiesEDP RenewablesandIberdrola.\nTechnology and communications\nAnalysts from JPMorgan also picked semiconductor firmsInfineon TechnologiesandSTMicroelectronicsfor both their U.S. and European lists, as well as German firmDeutsche Telekom.\nFirms that appear on both Jefferies’ and JPMorgan’s lists include medical technology groupSiemens Healthineers, French train manufacturerAlstomand security firmAssa Abloy.\nA number of factors have combined to stimulate a capital spending surge, according to Jefferies’ analysts. These include old equipment that needs replacing, “buoyant” CEO confidence, an earnings turnaround leaving balance sheets “flush with cash,” and low industrial inventories.\n“Our US capex indicator has quite literally gone ballistic. It took around six years from the GFC [global financial crisis] to 2015 before a capex recovery emerged in the previous cycle. This one has taken approximately 13 months and has surged to the highest reading in history,” Jefferies’ analysts wrote.\nFor JPMorgan, company profits have also meant a surge in spending. “Corporate capex is on an accelerating path this year, given the strong rebound in corporate profitability, where profits have tended to lead capex pretty consistently. Further, bank lending standards are continuing to improve, which helps capex decisions,” the bank’s analysts wrote.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120154605,"gmtCreate":1624316785007,"gmtModify":1703833087340,"author":{"id":"3554890351858233","authorId":"3554890351858233","name":"Trev","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9016d2c3be7a6a9ebf2ff8c7fb390114","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554890351858233","authorIdStr":"3554890351858233"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120154605","repostId":"1126003524","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150518574,"gmtCreate":1624921274498,"gmtModify":1703847762620,"author":{"id":"3554890351858233","authorId":"3554890351858233","name":"Trev","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9016d2c3be7a6a9ebf2ff8c7fb390114","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554890351858233","authorIdStr":"3554890351858233"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/150518574","repostId":"1124372919","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1124372919","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624869783,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124372919?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 16:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124372919","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.However, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.We discuss how these factors could combine with its focus on China to transform it into a $1 trillion mega cap.NIO also has a strong foothold on autonomous mobility technology thanks to filing nearly 50 patents in the area and boasts AI-powered smart \"cockpits.\". Given that the mobility industry is becoming increasingly software-driven,","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.</li>\n <li>However, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.</li>\n <li>We discuss how these factors could combine with its focus on China to transform it into a $1 trillion mega cap.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17cdcfe41a4b886c29dad01d4512e84e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Lintao Zhang/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p>Similar to how we analyzed Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)in our recent piece<i>Palantir: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation</i>, NIO Inc.(NYSE:NIO)is unique in that it is already a large cap stock, but has a massive growth runway that could quite conceivably make it a mega-cap stock and eventually even approach a valuation of $1 Trillion. Here are five reasons why it could successfully achieve that valuation:</p>\n<p><b>#1. \"Gas Station\" Of The Future</b></p>\n<p>NIO is a major designer and manufacturer of high-tech electric vehicles in China and as a result competes with the likes of Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)in innovative technologies like connectivity, batteries, autonomous mobility, and artificial intelligence.</p>\n<p>NIO's status as an emerging leader in these innovative technologies is perhaps the biggest reason to believe that they could become a multi-bagger from today's already lofty valuation and become a true mega cap.</p>\n<p>For example, its Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) potential is immense. The company has already begun building out the infrastructure for this business through its&nbsp;recent partnership&nbsp;with Sinopec(NYSE:SHI)through which they aspire to create a 5,000 battery swap station network by 2024. This will give NIO a decisive network advantage in this space just as it begins to really take off in the world's largest electric vehicle market, enabling it to form partnerships with other automakers in the country and drive strong revenue growth from this business alone. Essentially, this would make NIO the number one \"gas station\" company in China as the country and world enter the age of electrification.</p>\n<p>Given that they possess hundreds of patents in battery swap technology, NIO seems to already have the intellectual property moat necessary to transform this potential into reality. It appears to be merely a matter of time for them to implement and scale now.</p>\n<p><b>#2. Autonomous Mobility &amp; AI Technology</b></p>\n<p>NIO also has a strong foothold on autonomous mobility technology thanks to filing nearly 50 patents in the area and boasts AI-powered smart \"cockpits.\"</p>\n<p>Given that the mobility industry is becoming increasingly software-driven, its intellectual property portfolio here is important as well. Even more important, though, is its competitive positioning to emerge as a long-term leader in the electric vehicle space in China, not only because of the vehicle sales potential it offers, but much more importantly because it is the largest source of consumer data in the world. As a result, NIO will have access to a vast amount of data with which it can improve its A.I. and build one of the best mobility software platforms in the world.</p>\n<p><b>#3. Government Support</b></p>\n<p>Another big reason to believe in NIO's long-term potential stems from the simple fact that it is a leading local company in China in high-priority technology fields. As a result, it will likely enjoy significant support from the Chinese government so that it can serve as a vehicle whereby China can advance its goals towards becoming the pre-eminent global technological superpower.</p>\n<p>This principle has already played out several times to NIO's benefit.</p>\n<p>For example, the&nbsp;government recently gave&nbsp;NIO a RMB7 billion (US$1b) bailout to give it the cash it needed to sustain and scale operations.</p>\n<p>Additionally, government-owned auto manufacturer - Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp - has also assisted NIO by providing it with manufacturing services, enabling it to scale with minimal additional capital investment.</p>\n<p>Perhaps the most glaring example of this was how the Chinese state media&nbsp;recently successfully harmed&nbsp;the reputation of TSLA - NIO's top foreign rival - to the point where the Elon Musk-led company had to issue an apology.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, the Chinese government is making a major push to transition the automotive market towards electric vehicles in an effort to battle its huge pollution problem. It is achieving these aims by offering purchase rebates and tax exemptions for the industry, while also placing restrictions on new gasoline and diesel powered vehicle permits.</p>\n<p><b>#4. Global Expansion</b></p>\n<p>NIO is also poised to begin expanding its sales into global markets, beginning with Norway. Not only will the company be selling its cars there, but it will be building out local physical and digital infrastructure to create a high quality user-friendly ecosystem to add value to its brand and bolster its competitive positioning. Once it has built significant scale in Norway, it will then have a greater position of strength from which to infiltrate the rest of the European market. Given the geopolitical tensions with the United States at the moment as well as Tesla's dominance in the U.S. electric vehicle market, Europe seems like a much more logical choice to begin global expansion.</p>\n<p><b>#5. Crunching The Numbers</b></p>\n<p>Electric Vehicle sales are already growing exponentially - especially in China - and we expect that number to explode much higher in the years to come.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00cdeb70c618caeddbbd16df936194ad\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"572\"></p>\n<p>In fact, while just barely over 1.2 million electric vehicles were sold worldwide in 2017,Bloomberg New Energy Finance&nbsp;expects that number to soar to 60 million by 2040. Not only that, but battery and battery charging infrastructure demand will soar as well.</p>\n<p>If NIO can seize on its early leadership in China in both the electric vehicle and battery charging infrastructure businesses and also successfully scale its business internationally, there is certainly room for it to achieve a $1 trillion valuation by 2040. For example, its gross margin is expected to be nearly 20% in 2021 and 2022. TSLA's gross, meanwhile, is around 23% and its net margin is roughly half of that, or ~11.5%.</p>\n<p>NIO's BaaS business should also be higher margin given that it could be entirely automated and the actual real estate could be leased instead of owned in order to free up capital for higher return investment elsewhere. With continued scaling in both businesses and overall positive trends in the business with reduced costs across the board through automation and enhanced data analytics, we think gross margins of 25% and net margins of 15% by 2040 are entirely feasible.</p>\n<p>If NIO were to grab just 7.5% of the global EV market (TSLA's is currently 11%) by 2040, it would be selling ~4.5 million cars per year. We think this share is actually very feasible when you consider that the majority of electric vehicle sales are expected to be in China and that NIO has an inside track on that market given the support it is receiving from the government.</p>\n<p>If the average sale were for $40,000 per electric vehicle, its profit would be ~$6,000 per vehicle, translating to $27 billion in annual profit from auto sales alone. At a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would put the automotive business at a $810 billion valuation.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, its BaaS business could likely generate $150 in profits per year per vehicle in its sphere in China. By 2030,it is estimated&nbsp;that there will be 50 million electric vehicles on the road in China and that EVs will account for 40% of total auto sales. A very conservative estimate is that the number of EVs on the road in China will double to 100 million by 2040. If NIO's BaaS business serves 20% of the electric vehicles in China by 2040, that would equate to an additional $3+ billion in annual net income. Once again applying a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would equate to roughly another $100 billion in market valuation.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the potential for using its data and autonomous vehicle technology as well as vast BaaS infrastructure to launch an autonomous taxi business network is also immense. While it is hard to know exactly what sort of value this would command as it is hard to project how it would be regulated by the Chinese government and how well consumers would adopt it, it is not a stretch that NIO's scale and capabilities by this point in such a potentially massive market as is offered in China would put the valuation for this business at $100 billion.</p>\n<p>Combining all three businesses gets us to a $1 trillion total valuation under a bullish, but not entirely implausible scenario.</p>\n<p><b>Risk Analysis</b></p>\n<p>While the path to $1 trillion certainly looks viable, there are numerous risks to consider along the way.</p>\n<p>First and foremost, NIO faces a lot of competition from both foreign and domestic companies. TSLA has a large presence in China and overseas and sports a premium brand to go along with an extremely driven and innovative CEO and engineering team. While the Chinese government has helped NIO some already with surviving the TSLA threat, it is unknown the depths that it will have to and be willing to go to continue giving NIO a boost to sustain its competitive standing in its domestic market.</p>\n<p>Of course, NIO also faces competitive pressures from fellow Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers including Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU), which already has a&nbsp;partnership&nbsp;with a government-owned automaker (BAIC Group) to put 1,000 driverless cars on the roads over the next 3 years as a prelude to establishing an autonomous taxi service in China. Facing off against fellow major domestic players who also have government backing poses another threat to NIO because it means that it cannot solely rely on government assistance to survive and thrive.</p>\n<p>On that same note, it also increases the political risk for NIO. Given that it is not the only horse that China is betting on in the mobility space, if their leadership were to run afoul of the Chinese Communist Party and/or they were to simply lag behind in performance, they could quickly be \"dropped\" by the government and the business could fall into a downward spiral. If Alibaba(NYSE:BABA)&nbsp;could face this, NIO certainly could too. If nothing else, the Chinese government could easily seize some or all of NIO's physical or intellectual property for state use, depriving NIO shareholders of much of their equity value.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, expanding overseas could also be complicated by the fact that China is currently dealing with growing geopolitical tensions with other Asia-Pacific nations, Europe, and the United States. As a result, trade barriers may go up, especially in such high-priority technologies as mobility and autonomous technology. The U.S., Europe, Japan, Korea, and even India have well-established automobile industries and if they feel threatened by a Chinese competitor, they may well decide to throw up barriers to entry in their markets.</p>\n<p>Of course, as the China hustle pointed out, many Chinese companies have a troubling track record of fudging accounting numbers. As a result, investors should always view Chinese company - to include NIO's - financial numbers with a healthy dose of skepticism. While it is very possible - if not likely - that NIO's numbers are completely accurate, it is still a risk that needs to be considered.</p>\n<p>Last, but not least, NIO is currently priced quite expensively as it is still running up massive losses and trades at 71 times expected 2021 gross income. Therefore, the range of potential future outcomes is quite wide and investors could very well be dramatically overpaying by purchasing at today's prices. It should be viewed as a highly speculative investment accordingly.</p>\n<p><b>Investor Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>NIO is currently struggling to turn a profit and has had to be bailed out by the Chinese government. At the same time, its valuation is sky-high. While this might steer many investors away and the stock is indeed a very speculative investment, there is also a plausible path for the company to become a $1 trillion mega cap by 2040 and generate attractive long-term returns for investors as a result.</p>\n<p>While not for the faint of heart and certainly not without risks, NIO could continue on its path towards becoming one of the world's pre-eminent mobility companies.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-28 16:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436753-nio-the-path-to-a-1-trillion-valuation><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.\nHowever, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.\nWe discuss how these ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436753-nio-the-path-to-a-1-trillion-valuation\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436753-nio-the-path-to-a-1-trillion-valuation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124372919","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.\nHowever, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.\nWe discuss how these factors could combine with its focus on China to transform it into a $1 trillion mega cap.\n\nLintao Zhang/Getty Images News\nSimilar to how we analyzed Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)in our recent piecePalantir: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation, NIO Inc.(NYSE:NIO)is unique in that it is already a large cap stock, but has a massive growth runway that could quite conceivably make it a mega-cap stock and eventually even approach a valuation of $1 Trillion. Here are five reasons why it could successfully achieve that valuation:\n#1. \"Gas Station\" Of The Future\nNIO is a major designer and manufacturer of high-tech electric vehicles in China and as a result competes with the likes of Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)in innovative technologies like connectivity, batteries, autonomous mobility, and artificial intelligence.\nNIO's status as an emerging leader in these innovative technologies is perhaps the biggest reason to believe that they could become a multi-bagger from today's already lofty valuation and become a true mega cap.\nFor example, its Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) potential is immense. The company has already begun building out the infrastructure for this business through its recent partnership with Sinopec(NYSE:SHI)through which they aspire to create a 5,000 battery swap station network by 2024. This will give NIO a decisive network advantage in this space just as it begins to really take off in the world's largest electric vehicle market, enabling it to form partnerships with other automakers in the country and drive strong revenue growth from this business alone. Essentially, this would make NIO the number one \"gas station\" company in China as the country and world enter the age of electrification.\nGiven that they possess hundreds of patents in battery swap technology, NIO seems to already have the intellectual property moat necessary to transform this potential into reality. It appears to be merely a matter of time for them to implement and scale now.\n#2. Autonomous Mobility & AI Technology\nNIO also has a strong foothold on autonomous mobility technology thanks to filing nearly 50 patents in the area and boasts AI-powered smart \"cockpits.\"\nGiven that the mobility industry is becoming increasingly software-driven, its intellectual property portfolio here is important as well. Even more important, though, is its competitive positioning to emerge as a long-term leader in the electric vehicle space in China, not only because of the vehicle sales potential it offers, but much more importantly because it is the largest source of consumer data in the world. As a result, NIO will have access to a vast amount of data with which it can improve its A.I. and build one of the best mobility software platforms in the world.\n#3. Government Support\nAnother big reason to believe in NIO's long-term potential stems from the simple fact that it is a leading local company in China in high-priority technology fields. As a result, it will likely enjoy significant support from the Chinese government so that it can serve as a vehicle whereby China can advance its goals towards becoming the pre-eminent global technological superpower.\nThis principle has already played out several times to NIO's benefit.\nFor example, the government recently gave NIO a RMB7 billion (US$1b) bailout to give it the cash it needed to sustain and scale operations.\nAdditionally, government-owned auto manufacturer - Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp - has also assisted NIO by providing it with manufacturing services, enabling it to scale with minimal additional capital investment.\nPerhaps the most glaring example of this was how the Chinese state media recently successfully harmed the reputation of TSLA - NIO's top foreign rival - to the point where the Elon Musk-led company had to issue an apology.\nFurthermore, the Chinese government is making a major push to transition the automotive market towards electric vehicles in an effort to battle its huge pollution problem. It is achieving these aims by offering purchase rebates and tax exemptions for the industry, while also placing restrictions on new gasoline and diesel powered vehicle permits.\n#4. Global Expansion\nNIO is also poised to begin expanding its sales into global markets, beginning with Norway. Not only will the company be selling its cars there, but it will be building out local physical and digital infrastructure to create a high quality user-friendly ecosystem to add value to its brand and bolster its competitive positioning. Once it has built significant scale in Norway, it will then have a greater position of strength from which to infiltrate the rest of the European market. Given the geopolitical tensions with the United States at the moment as well as Tesla's dominance in the U.S. electric vehicle market, Europe seems like a much more logical choice to begin global expansion.\n#5. Crunching The Numbers\nElectric Vehicle sales are already growing exponentially - especially in China - and we expect that number to explode much higher in the years to come.\n\nIn fact, while just barely over 1.2 million electric vehicles were sold worldwide in 2017,Bloomberg New Energy Finance expects that number to soar to 60 million by 2040. Not only that, but battery and battery charging infrastructure demand will soar as well.\nIf NIO can seize on its early leadership in China in both the electric vehicle and battery charging infrastructure businesses and also successfully scale its business internationally, there is certainly room for it to achieve a $1 trillion valuation by 2040. For example, its gross margin is expected to be nearly 20% in 2021 and 2022. TSLA's gross, meanwhile, is around 23% and its net margin is roughly half of that, or ~11.5%.\nNIO's BaaS business should also be higher margin given that it could be entirely automated and the actual real estate could be leased instead of owned in order to free up capital for higher return investment elsewhere. With continued scaling in both businesses and overall positive trends in the business with reduced costs across the board through automation and enhanced data analytics, we think gross margins of 25% and net margins of 15% by 2040 are entirely feasible.\nIf NIO were to grab just 7.5% of the global EV market (TSLA's is currently 11%) by 2040, it would be selling ~4.5 million cars per year. We think this share is actually very feasible when you consider that the majority of electric vehicle sales are expected to be in China and that NIO has an inside track on that market given the support it is receiving from the government.\nIf the average sale were for $40,000 per electric vehicle, its profit would be ~$6,000 per vehicle, translating to $27 billion in annual profit from auto sales alone. At a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would put the automotive business at a $810 billion valuation.\nMeanwhile, its BaaS business could likely generate $150 in profits per year per vehicle in its sphere in China. By 2030,it is estimated that there will be 50 million electric vehicles on the road in China and that EVs will account for 40% of total auto sales. A very conservative estimate is that the number of EVs on the road in China will double to 100 million by 2040. If NIO's BaaS business serves 20% of the electric vehicles in China by 2040, that would equate to an additional $3+ billion in annual net income. Once again applying a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would equate to roughly another $100 billion in market valuation.\nMeanwhile, the potential for using its data and autonomous vehicle technology as well as vast BaaS infrastructure to launch an autonomous taxi business network is also immense. While it is hard to know exactly what sort of value this would command as it is hard to project how it would be regulated by the Chinese government and how well consumers would adopt it, it is not a stretch that NIO's scale and capabilities by this point in such a potentially massive market as is offered in China would put the valuation for this business at $100 billion.\nCombining all three businesses gets us to a $1 trillion total valuation under a bullish, but not entirely implausible scenario.\nRisk Analysis\nWhile the path to $1 trillion certainly looks viable, there are numerous risks to consider along the way.\nFirst and foremost, NIO faces a lot of competition from both foreign and domestic companies. TSLA has a large presence in China and overseas and sports a premium brand to go along with an extremely driven and innovative CEO and engineering team. While the Chinese government has helped NIO some already with surviving the TSLA threat, it is unknown the depths that it will have to and be willing to go to continue giving NIO a boost to sustain its competitive standing in its domestic market.\nOf course, NIO also faces competitive pressures from fellow Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers including Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU), which already has a partnership with a government-owned automaker (BAIC Group) to put 1,000 driverless cars on the roads over the next 3 years as a prelude to establishing an autonomous taxi service in China. Facing off against fellow major domestic players who also have government backing poses another threat to NIO because it means that it cannot solely rely on government assistance to survive and thrive.\nOn that same note, it also increases the political risk for NIO. Given that it is not the only horse that China is betting on in the mobility space, if their leadership were to run afoul of the Chinese Communist Party and/or they were to simply lag behind in performance, they could quickly be \"dropped\" by the government and the business could fall into a downward spiral. If Alibaba(NYSE:BABA) could face this, NIO certainly could too. If nothing else, the Chinese government could easily seize some or all of NIO's physical or intellectual property for state use, depriving NIO shareholders of much of their equity value.\nFurthermore, expanding overseas could also be complicated by the fact that China is currently dealing with growing geopolitical tensions with other Asia-Pacific nations, Europe, and the United States. As a result, trade barriers may go up, especially in such high-priority technologies as mobility and autonomous technology. The U.S., Europe, Japan, Korea, and even India have well-established automobile industries and if they feel threatened by a Chinese competitor, they may well decide to throw up barriers to entry in their markets.\nOf course, as the China hustle pointed out, many Chinese companies have a troubling track record of fudging accounting numbers. As a result, investors should always view Chinese company - to include NIO's - financial numbers with a healthy dose of skepticism. While it is very possible - if not likely - that NIO's numbers are completely accurate, it is still a risk that needs to be considered.\nLast, but not least, NIO is currently priced quite expensively as it is still running up massive losses and trades at 71 times expected 2021 gross income. Therefore, the range of potential future outcomes is quite wide and investors could very well be dramatically overpaying by purchasing at today's prices. It should be viewed as a highly speculative investment accordingly.\nInvestor Takeaway\nNIO is currently struggling to turn a profit and has had to be bailed out by the Chinese government. At the same time, its valuation is sky-high. While this might steer many investors away and the stock is indeed a very speculative investment, there is also a plausible path for the company to become a $1 trillion mega cap by 2040 and generate attractive long-term returns for investors as a result.\nWhile not for the faint of heart and certainly not without risks, NIO could continue on its path towards becoming one of the world's pre-eminent mobility companies.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118704113,"gmtCreate":1622760706432,"gmtModify":1704190484205,"author":{"id":"3554890351858233","authorId":"3554890351858233","name":"Trev","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9016d2c3be7a6a9ebf2ff8c7fb390114","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554890351858233","authorIdStr":"3554890351858233"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ouch","listText":"Ouch","text":"Ouch","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118704113","repostId":"1171121102","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183274963,"gmtCreate":1623334383152,"gmtModify":1704201186664,"author":{"id":"3554890351858233","authorId":"3554890351858233","name":"Trev","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9016d2c3be7a6a9ebf2ff8c7fb390114","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554890351858233","authorIdStr":"3554890351858233"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183274963","repostId":"1119957571","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":468,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375111357,"gmtCreate":1619314917479,"gmtModify":1704722301929,"author":{"id":"3554890351858233","authorId":"3554890351858233","name":"Trev","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9016d2c3be7a6a9ebf2ff8c7fb390114","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554890351858233","authorIdStr":"3554890351858233"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"True","listText":"True","text":"True","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375111357","repostId":"2129843350","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":292,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}