KDL personal page - To The Moon

KDL

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2022-10-08

Thanks for sharing

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2022-09-17

Thanks for sharing

Nvidia: Ethereum Merge Unleashes A Tsunami Of Used Graphics Cards

2022-08-19

It is sad to see this actually. Will cinemas become a thing in the past?

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2022-07-21

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$650 and below.

2022-05-10

Hope the market will stablize soon

@Lynn098:$RBLX 20220520 20.0 PUT$With the sharp fall in Roblox overnight, looks like I am going to be able to buy Roblox at $20.

2022-05-10

Thanks for sharing.

Palantir: Market Has Completely Misunderstood Its Latest Earnings

2022-04-20

Is this Gordon?

Is The End Near For Musk And Tesla?

2022-04-01

They probably sold two days ago, then pump out this news, prepare to scoop it at a great price, pump it again by upgrading it, rinse and repeat.

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2022-03-09

As a consumer, I hate ads. As a shareholder, I love ads.😅😂

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2022-03-04

What happens if they report a rebound on govt sector the next ER? 🤔

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2022-02-27

Luxury is an interesting area to look out for.

Farfetch Soared 30% After EPS Beat, Strong Guidance

2022-02-18

This is probably going to be spammed all over by main stream media. Ok 👌

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2022-02-18

Wow this report. Lol. ok

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2022-02-17

I wonder if RBLX will get accquired..

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2022-02-09

Not sure. We shall see on earnings.

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2022-02-08

I admire his skills and knowledge but not sure if this public acknowledgemrnt of a political party will any good to pltr...

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2022-02-03

Is metaverse really just a hype? Personally I think how gaming is going to develop down the road can provide an insight to this.

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2022-01-27

🤦‍♀️ not at the stock, but at the article.

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2022-01-26

16 Mar then.

FOMC Preview：Fed Not Expected to Raise Interest Rates This Week

2022-01-25

Amazing that he didn't exploit further. Gain respect for him and hope Tesla would reward him.

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Go to Tiger App to see more news

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for sharing","listText":"Thanks for sharing","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914183367","repostId":"1177490519","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937692462,"gmtCreate":1663411072056,"gmtModify":1676537267356,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing","listText":"Thanks for sharing","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937692462","repostId":"1129633132","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129633132","pubTimestamp":1663378125,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129633132?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-17 09:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Ethereum Merge Unleashes A Tsunami Of Used Graphics Cards","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129633132","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryEthereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “m","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Ethereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “mining”.</li><li>Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales accounts for Nvidia’s fiscal Q2 results.</li><li>The impact of the Merge on Nvidia’s sales will be, at best, ugly.</li><li>How will the Merge affect Nvidia’s expected RTX 40 series launch?</li><li>Investor takeaways: Will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f531f7b392a181968ec72c4a8f89f8e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>vzphotos/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p>The Ethereum Foundation, which manages the Ether cryptocurrency, has announced completion of what it calls the Merge, whereby validation of new blocks of transactions no longer takes place by &#34;mining&#34;. The millions of high-end graphics cards that are used for this will no longer beneeded for the new &#34;proof-of-stake&#34; approach, so that most of these will likely find their way into the used card market. This will depress demand for new graphics cards just when Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is set to announce its next-generation GeForce 40 series.</p><p><b>Ethereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy consuming &#34;mining&#34;</b></p><p>The transition of Ethereum to proof-of-stake was called the Merge because it involved combining the parallel block chain that was already using proof-of-stake experimentally with the main block chain that was using traditional mining, called proof-of-work. This is shown below in this diagram from the Ethereum Foundation:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4872c823bfeb3e06182d2d3f6ab87879\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Ethereum.org</span></p><p>Mining was really just transaction processing, in which a number of Ethereum transactions would be bundled into a block and encrypted. But the encryption process was made artificially difficult, requiring millions of high end graphics cards in the mining pool to process a block in a reasonable period of time.</p><p>In the new proof-of-stake approach, the artificial difficulty is removed, so that hardware requirements can be met by almost any computer, ending the need for graphics card processing and the attendant energy consumption. Ethereum claims this will reduce energy consumption by 99.95%.</p><p>Some miners may go to work on a &#34;hard fork&#34; of Ethereum, in effect, a secession of the currency into a new one called EthereumPOW. This currency will continue to use proof-of-work, but it&#39;s unclear whether mining this will be profitable.</p><p>Probably, the vast majority of cards will go on the used card market and be sold on venues such as eBay.</p><p><b>Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales</b></p><p>Following Nvidia&#39;s revised guidance for its fiscal 2023 Q2, I realized that I needed to revise my model of Ethereum-related sales of graphics cards. I had published an article detailing the model in July.</p><p>The problem with the model was that it only accounted for sales into the Ethereum mining pool when the pool was adding capacity, i.e., adding new cards to the pool. It worked fine as long as the pool was still growing.</p><p>However, starting in mid-May, the Ethereum mining pool hash rate, a measure of mining capacity, started to decline, as shown in the following chart from BitInfoCharts:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe36f2d53f47c0d7e5cdf964d09c67fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BinInfoCharts</span></p><p>This implied that a substantial number of graphics cards were being removed from the pool. If I assumed that these cards were comparable to current generation Nvidia and AMD (AMD) cards, then it was reasonable to assume that every used card sold was a lost new card sale.</p><p>This turned out to account very well for Nvidia&#39;s fiscal Q2 results, if we assume that a normal quarterly revenue in Nvidia&#39;s Gaming segment is about $2.5 billion. During the Fiscal Q2 conference call, Nvidia specifically claimed that this would be their normal average Gaming segment revenue without crypto. In my spreadsheet calculations, it was easy to calculate the used card effect simply by allowing the change in mining pool cards to go negative, with a negative net revenue for the cards:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8223bcd7d3f44c30f5c60970c616fe0f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>Note that the revenue impact doesn&#39;t only fall on Nvidia, but the timing of Nvidia&#39;s fiscal Q2 lined up better with the fall in Ethereum mining capacity and likely release of cards into the used card market. AMD will likely feel the impact in its Q3 results.</p><p><b>The impact of the Merge on Nvidia&#39;s sales will be, at best, ugly</b></p><p>The model provides a means of anticipating what happens when the Ethereum hash rate effectively goes to zero, post Merge. And it&#39;s not pretty. In an article on August 21, I gave my subscribers a heads-up concerning the impact of the Merge, and I further revised my model results on September 11.</p><p>If we assume that the entire mining pool consists of newer graphics cards released since September 2020 (RTX 30 series for Nvidia), then Nvidia&#39;s RTX 30 series sales for Q3 are completely wiped out, as shown in the spreadsheet calculations extended to Q3:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c00465fed542c67659f55786fcdf366b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>The model deducts the hash rate contribution due to Nvidia Crypto Mining Processors (CMP). These cannot be sold into the used graphics cards market, since they lack display outputs.</p><p>This amounts to assuming that all of the cards used in mining before September 2020 (about when the RTX 30 series launched) were replaced with newer cards. This probably isn&#39;t absolutely correct, and the mining pool has consisted of a mixture of older and newer cards.</p><p>As a lower bound, we can assume that none of the older cards were replaced. These cards would not impact new card sales, since they aren&#39;t comparable to current generation cards. The model can deduct these cards from the calculated revenue impact by simply deducting the pre-September 2020 hash rate of 228.2361 terahash/sec (THASH) for the mining pool:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac0a909d1edae7870adea14e3f987d28\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>So the lost revenue impact for Nvidia looks to be in the range of $2-3 billion, and it probably won&#39;t fall all in Q3 but be distributed over several quarters. The effect of the Merge is to effectively zero out Nvidia&#39;s crypto revenue over time. The revenue made during Ethereum&#39;s mining pool expansion is negated by lost revenue post Merge, with the exception of CMP revenue and revenue from older graphics cards that might still have been in the pool at the time of the Merge.</p><p><b>How will the Merge affect Nvidia&#39;s expected RTX 40 series launch?</b></p><p>Nvidia has been expected to announce its GeForce RTX 40 series cards for some time, and Nvidia posted this announcement on its website:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c5990337b62c49447e21da39a199e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Nvidia</span></p><p>Various tech pundits are claiming that this is the worst time for Nvidia to launch a new generation of gaming graphics cards. One important feature expected of the RTX 40 series is support for PCIE 5.0. This could be important in reducing the impact of the Ethereum Merge.</p><p>The current generation of Nvidia and AMD cards only support PCIE 4.0, the prevailing standard at the time of their introduction in late 2020. PCIE 5.0 will double the communication bandwidth compared to 4.0. It&#39;s not clear how critical that will be to gaming performance, but it should eliminate PCIE as a bottleneck, if it ever was.</p><p>Just as important, new generation CPUs will have to support PCIE 5.0, since the GPU is typically linked directly to the CPU through a built in PCIE 16 lane (x16) interface. This is the preferred architecture for maximum gaming performance, and all modern CPUs provide at least 16 lanes of PCIE for this purpose.</p><p>Intel (INTC) already supports PCIE 5.0 in its latest Alder Lake 12th generation Core series of desktop CPUs. Since Alder Lake launched early this year, there have been no PCIE 5.0 graphics cards to take advantage of the interface, but the current installed base of Alder Lake systems represents a waiting market for the new PCIE 5.0 cards.</p><p>Unfortunately, I don&#39;t have an estimate of Alder Lake sales, so I have no idea what the size of that market might be. Current generation AMD Ryzen 5000 series desktop CPUs only offer PCIE 4.0, but the Ryzen 7000 series has been announced with support for PCIE 5.0, with a launch expected in October. AMD&#39;s next-generation GPUs have only been &#34;teased&#34; but are expected to support PCIE 5.0 as well.</p><p>The performance desktop market (mostly gamers) is moving rapidly to PCIE 5.0, and Nvidia will have, at least for a few months, the only graphics cards that support it. Gamers tend to be early adopters and favor the highest performance technology.</p><p>Since<i>none</i>of the used cards released from the Merge will support PCIE 5.0, this may serve to somewhat isolate the RTX 40 series launch from the impact of the Merge. How much isolation is still unclear.</p><p>Most of the current population of gaming systems will only support PCIE 4.0, so this part of the market would probably not buy RTX 40 series in any case. Most 40 series sales will go into new system builds.</p><p>Certainly, the impact of the Merge will be to weaken sales of the RTX 40 series at launch. However, overall sales in the Gaming segment will probably benefit from the launch. The 40 series launch will give the segment a revenue stream it would not have had otherwise.</p><p><b>Investor takeaways: will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?</b></p><p>Nvidia guided to revenue of $5.9 billion for fiscal Q3 during the Q2 conference call, and this implies revenue in the gaming segment of about $1 billion. Did Nvidia account for the Merge in their guidance?</p><p>When asked specifically about the impact of the Merge, Nvidia management had no comment, and professed an inability to account for the crypto impact. The guidance was claimed to be due to a retail channel inventory glut.</p><p>If Nvidia really wasn&#39;t accounting for the Merge, then almost certainly it will need to restate guidance for Q3. Probably, the RTX 40 series launch will not be enough to provide the roughly $1 billion in Gaming segment revenue.</p><p>In my Nvidia integrated financial model, I&#39;m assuming a $3 billion hit due to the Merge and another $1 billion due to inventory correction. In the model, this is distributed over the next four quarters from fiscal 2023 Q3 to fiscal 2024 Q2, with Gaming segment sales only starting to recover in fiscal 2024 Q3.</p><p>Despite this, I&#39;m still modeling growth in the all-important Data Center segment. Nvidia&#39;s next-generation data center accelerator, the Hopper H100, is testing out to be very impressive and is in production now with deliveries expected by the end of the calendar year.</p><p>Hopper should ensure continued growth in the Data Center segment, and the advent of Grace, Nvidia&#39;s ARM architecture CPU for the data center, should further enhance growth. Data Center growth largely compensates for revenue declines expected in Gaming for this year and next, according to the model:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8026f845d3af92219bdc2bb1bc67be19\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>According to my long-term Discounted Cash Flow model, Nvidia has a fair value of $192. I consider Nvidia&#39;s future to be very bright, despite the impact of crypto in the near term.</p><p>Currently, I have Nvidia rated at Hold, and Nvidia has been a relatively small part of the Rethink Technology portfolio since selling most of my Nvidia shares (at a substantial profit) in April. I&#39;m pretty close to upgrading Nvidia to Buy, but I&#39;m waiting to see if the Merge (and possible guidance restatement) will drive Nvidia&#39;s price even lower.</p><p>Also, I&#39;m waiting to see what Nvidia has to offer in its new 40 series on September 20. Nvidia has consistently set the performance bar in the desktop graphics card market. Most likely, Nvidia is already undervalued.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Ethereum Merge Unleashes A Tsunami Of Used Graphics Cards</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Ethereum Merge Unleashes A Tsunami Of Used Graphics Cards\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-17 09:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541459-nvidia-ethereum-merge-unleashes-tsunami-of-used-graphics-cards?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3AAll%7Csection_asset%3AAnalysis%7Cfirst_level_url%3Asymbol%7Cbutton%3ATitle%7Clock_status%3ANo%7Cline%3A1><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryEthereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “mining”.Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales accounts for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541459-nvidia-ethereum-merge-unleashes-tsunami-of-used-graphics-cards?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3AAll%7Csection_asset%3AAnalysis%7Cfirst_level_url%3Asymbol%7Cbutton%3ATitle%7Clock_status%3ANo%7Cline%3A1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541459-nvidia-ethereum-merge-unleashes-tsunami-of-used-graphics-cards?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3AAll%7Csection_asset%3AAnalysis%7Cfirst_level_url%3Asymbol%7Cbutton%3ATitle%7Clock_status%3ANo%7Cline%3A1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129633132","content_text":"SummaryEthereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “mining”.Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales accounts for Nvidia’s fiscal Q2 results.The impact of the Merge on Nvidia’s sales will be, at best, ugly.How will the Merge affect Nvidia’s expected RTX 40 series launch?Investor takeaways: Will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?vzphotos/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesThe Ethereum Foundation, which manages the Ether cryptocurrency, has announced completion of what it calls the Merge, whereby validation of new blocks of transactions no longer takes place by \"mining\". The millions of high-end graphics cards that are used for this will no longer beneeded for the new \"proof-of-stake\" approach, so that most of these will likely find their way into the used card market. This will depress demand for new graphics cards just when Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is set to announce its next-generation GeForce 40 series.Ethereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy consuming \"mining\"The transition of Ethereum to proof-of-stake was called the Merge because it involved combining the parallel block chain that was already using proof-of-stake experimentally with the main block chain that was using traditional mining, called proof-of-work. This is shown below in this diagram from the Ethereum Foundation:Ethereum.orgMining was really just transaction processing, in which a number of Ethereum transactions would be bundled into a block and encrypted. But the encryption process was made artificially difficult, requiring millions of high end graphics cards in the mining pool to process a block in a reasonable period of time.In the new proof-of-stake approach, the artificial difficulty is removed, so that hardware requirements can be met by almost any computer, ending the need for graphics card processing and the attendant energy consumption. Ethereum claims this will reduce energy consumption by 99.95%.Some miners may go to work on a \"hard fork\" of Ethereum, in effect, a secession of the currency into a new one called EthereumPOW. This currency will continue to use proof-of-work, but it's unclear whether mining this will be profitable.Probably, the vast majority of cards will go on the used card market and be sold on venues such as eBay.Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card salesFollowing Nvidia's revised guidance for its fiscal 2023 Q2, I realized that I needed to revise my model of Ethereum-related sales of graphics cards. I had published an article detailing the model in July.The problem with the model was that it only accounted for sales into the Ethereum mining pool when the pool was adding capacity, i.e., adding new cards to the pool. It worked fine as long as the pool was still growing.However, starting in mid-May, the Ethereum mining pool hash rate, a measure of mining capacity, started to decline, as shown in the following chart from BitInfoCharts:BinInfoChartsThis implied that a substantial number of graphics cards were being removed from the pool. If I assumed that these cards were comparable to current generation Nvidia and AMD (AMD) cards, then it was reasonable to assume that every used card sold was a lost new card sale.This turned out to account very well for Nvidia's fiscal Q2 results, if we assume that a normal quarterly revenue in Nvidia's Gaming segment is about $2.5 billion. During the Fiscal Q2 conference call, Nvidia specifically claimed that this would be their normal average Gaming segment revenue without crypto. In my spreadsheet calculations, it was easy to calculate the used card effect simply by allowing the change in mining pool cards to go negative, with a negative net revenue for the cards:Mark HibbenNote that the revenue impact doesn't only fall on Nvidia, but the timing of Nvidia's fiscal Q2 lined up better with the fall in Ethereum mining capacity and likely release of cards into the used card market. AMD will likely feel the impact in its Q3 results.The impact of the Merge on Nvidia's sales will be, at best, uglyThe model provides a means of anticipating what happens when the Ethereum hash rate effectively goes to zero, post Merge. And it's not pretty. In an article on August 21, I gave my subscribers a heads-up concerning the impact of the Merge, and I further revised my model results on September 11.If we assume that the entire mining pool consists of newer graphics cards released since September 2020 (RTX 30 series for Nvidia), then Nvidia's RTX 30 series sales for Q3 are completely wiped out, as shown in the spreadsheet calculations extended to Q3:Mark HibbenThe model deducts the hash rate contribution due to Nvidia Crypto Mining Processors (CMP). These cannot be sold into the used graphics cards market, since they lack display outputs.This amounts to assuming that all of the cards used in mining before September 2020 (about when the RTX 30 series launched) were replaced with newer cards. This probably isn't absolutely correct, and the mining pool has consisted of a mixture of older and newer cards.As a lower bound, we can assume that none of the older cards were replaced. These cards would not impact new card sales, since they aren't comparable to current generation cards. The model can deduct these cards from the calculated revenue impact by simply deducting the pre-September 2020 hash rate of 228.2361 terahash/sec (THASH) for the mining pool:Mark HibbenSo the lost revenue impact for Nvidia looks to be in the range of $2-3 billion, and it probably won't fall all in Q3 but be distributed over several quarters. The effect of the Merge is to effectively zero out Nvidia's crypto revenue over time. The revenue made during Ethereum's mining pool expansion is negated by lost revenue post Merge, with the exception of CMP revenue and revenue from older graphics cards that might still have been in the pool at the time of the Merge.How will the Merge affect Nvidia's expected RTX 40 series launch?Nvidia has been expected to announce its GeForce RTX 40 series cards for some time, and Nvidia posted this announcement on its website:NvidiaVarious tech pundits are claiming that this is the worst time for Nvidia to launch a new generation of gaming graphics cards. One important feature expected of the RTX 40 series is support for PCIE 5.0. This could be important in reducing the impact of the Ethereum Merge.The current generation of Nvidia and AMD cards only support PCIE 4.0, the prevailing standard at the time of their introduction in late 2020. PCIE 5.0 will double the communication bandwidth compared to 4.0. It's not clear how critical that will be to gaming performance, but it should eliminate PCIE as a bottleneck, if it ever was.Just as important, new generation CPUs will have to support PCIE 5.0, since the GPU is typically linked directly to the CPU through a built in PCIE 16 lane (x16) interface. This is the preferred architecture for maximum gaming performance, and all modern CPUs provide at least 16 lanes of PCIE for this purpose.Intel (INTC) already supports PCIE 5.0 in its latest Alder Lake 12th generation Core series of desktop CPUs. Since Alder Lake launched early this year, there have been no PCIE 5.0 graphics cards to take advantage of the interface, but the current installed base of Alder Lake systems represents a waiting market for the new PCIE 5.0 cards.Unfortunately, I don't have an estimate of Alder Lake sales, so I have no idea what the size of that market might be. Current generation AMD Ryzen 5000 series desktop CPUs only offer PCIE 4.0, but the Ryzen 7000 series has been announced with support for PCIE 5.0, with a launch expected in October. AMD's next-generation GPUs have only been \"teased\" but are expected to support PCIE 5.0 as well.The performance desktop market (mostly gamers) is moving rapidly to PCIE 5.0, and Nvidia will have, at least for a few months, the only graphics cards that support it. Gamers tend to be early adopters and favor the highest performance technology.Sincenoneof the used cards released from the Merge will support PCIE 5.0, this may serve to somewhat isolate the RTX 40 series launch from the impact of the Merge. How much isolation is still unclear.Most of the current population of gaming systems will only support PCIE 4.0, so this part of the market would probably not buy RTX 40 series in any case. Most 40 series sales will go into new system builds.Certainly, the impact of the Merge will be to weaken sales of the RTX 40 series at launch. However, overall sales in the Gaming segment will probably benefit from the launch. The 40 series launch will give the segment a revenue stream it would not have had otherwise.Investor takeaways: will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?Nvidia guided to revenue of $5.9 billion for fiscal Q3 during the Q2 conference call, and this implies revenue in the gaming segment of about $1 billion. Did Nvidia account for the Merge in their guidance?When asked specifically about the impact of the Merge, Nvidia management had no comment, and professed an inability to account for the crypto impact. The guidance was claimed to be due to a retail channel inventory glut.If Nvidia really wasn't accounting for the Merge, then almost certainly it will need to restate guidance for Q3. Probably, the RTX 40 series launch will not be enough to provide the roughly $1 billion in Gaming segment revenue.In my Nvidia integrated financial model, I'm assuming a $3 billion hit due to the Merge and another $1 billion due to inventory correction. In the model, this is distributed over the next four quarters from fiscal 2023 Q3 to fiscal 2024 Q2, with Gaming segment sales only starting to recover in fiscal 2024 Q3.Despite this, I'm still modeling growth in the all-important Data Center segment. Nvidia's next-generation data center accelerator, the Hopper H100, is testing out to be very impressive and is in production now with deliveries expected by the end of the calendar year.Hopper should ensure continued growth in the Data Center segment, and the advent of Grace, Nvidia's ARM architecture CPU for the data center, should further enhance growth. Data Center growth largely compensates for revenue declines expected in Gaming for this year and next, according to the model:Mark HibbenAccording to my long-term Discounted Cash Flow model, Nvidia has a fair value of $192. I consider Nvidia's future to be very bright, despite the impact of crypto in the near term.Currently, I have Nvidia rated at Hold, and Nvidia has been a relatively small part of the Rethink Technology portfolio since selling most of my Nvidia shares (at a substantial profit) in April. I'm pretty close to upgrading Nvidia to Buy, but I'm waiting to see if the Merge (and possible guidance restatement) will drive Nvidia's price even lower.Also, I'm waiting to see what Nvidia has to offer in its new 40 series on September 20. Nvidia has consistently set the performance bar in the desktop graphics card market. Most likely, Nvidia is already undervalued.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9998931090,"gmtCreate":1660916133411,"gmtModify":1676536422755,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It is sad to see this actually. Will cinemas become a thing in the past?","listText":"It is sad to see this actually. Will cinemas become a thing in the past?","text":"It is sad to see this actually. Will cinemas become a thing in the past?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9998931090","repostId":"2260493813","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9074259729,"gmtCreate":1658365945361,"gmtModify":1676536147908,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>650 and below.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>650 and below.","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$650 and below.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9074259729","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9065177116,"gmtCreate":1652162131635,"gmtModify":1676535043787,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope the market will stablize soon","listText":"Hope the market will stablize soon","text":"Hope the market will stablize soon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065177116","repostId":"9065178474","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9065178474,"gmtCreate":1652161541498,"gmtModify":1676535043678,"author":{"id":"4098071185322490","authorId":"4098071185322490","name":"Lynn098","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3597fa2f7b2f99b627545d626f3746b1","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4098071185322490","idStr":"4098071185322490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/RBLX 20220520 20.0 PUT\">$RBLX 20220520 20.0 PUT$</a>With the sharp fall in Roblox overnight, looks like I am going to be able to buy Roblox at $20.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/RBLX 20220520 20.0 PUT\">$RBLX 20220520 20.0 PUT$</a>With the sharp fall in Roblox overnight, looks like I am going to be able to buy Roblox at $20.","text":"$RBLX 20220520 20.0 PUT$With the sharp fall in Roblox overnight, looks like I am going to be able to buy Roblox at $20.","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/97313939b14737e189d3f3e82163e0b3","width":"720","height":"1280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065178474","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":285,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9065167178,"gmtCreate":1652156248494,"gmtModify":1676535042619,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing.","listText":"Thanks for sharing.","text":"Thanks for sharing.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065167178","repostId":"2234773775","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2234773775","pubTimestamp":1652144038,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2234773775?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-10 08:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Market Has Completely Misunderstood Its Latest Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2234773775","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir's post-earning sell-off underscores the market's disappointment with another weak sh","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir&#39;s post-earning sell-off underscores the market&#39;s disappointment with another weak showing for government sector revenues.</li><li>It also accentuates the market&#39;s ongoing ignorance of Palantir&#39;s success in achieving commercial acceleration despite tightening financial conditions and an increasingly uncertain economic growth outlook.</li><li>Palantir&#39;s continued effectiveness in deploying its &#34;land and expand&#34; business growth strategy, as evidence by 1Q22 government contract wins, has also been faced with market disregard.</li><li>Although the ongoing development of macroeconomic challenges continue to fuel the contracting valuation environment across growth stocks, Palantir&#39;s fundamental outlook continues to be supported by a robust demand environment.</li><li>In addition to continued commercial acceleration, Palantir is expected to benefit from backloaded government growth in the latter half as increasing global military spending in response to ongoing war efforts bolsters favourable near-term trends for the segment.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23d0f121f38325521c0b8ebbb42b26b3\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p>Palantir&#39;s stock (NYSE:PLTR) has taken a monthslong beating since reporting two consecutive quarters of mixed results, and after the Fed pivoted towards an aggressive policy stance in November upended the stock market. But regaining footing in the first quarter with a sales beat continues to underscore the company’s fundamental strength, bolstering the outlook on its multi-year growth target of 30% on an annual basis. Palantir continues to demonstrate market share gains across both the public and private sectors by encouraging adoption of its Foundry, Gotham and Apollo solutions through different deployment strategies, including modularization of existing offerings and industry-tailored solutions to better address different end user needs.</p><p>On the government front, the market appears disappointed still in the segment’s slowing growth, with the stock plummeting close to 20% in pre-market trading. But Palantir continues to demonstrate improvements by expanding existing opportunities with non-defense public agencies. Many renewed contracts with non-defense agencies this year, such as the U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention (“CDC”), are reflective of the value created by adoption of Palantir’s software under non-recurring COVID-era contracts, and underscores the continued effectiveness of the company’s “land and expand” strategy. Palantir has also played a supportive role in bolstering defense for the U.S. and its allies, as well as war relief efforts as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues. The combination of increased market penetration into both non-defense and defense public agencies continues to reinforce sustained growth in Palantir’s government segment.</p><p>Meanwhile, Palantir’s commercial segment is also demonstrating continued strength, underscoring effectiveness of its recent roll-out of modularized enterprise solutions to break the barrier of IT resistance to complex new software structures like Foundry. By tailoring Foundry solutions to better suit end users’ needs, Palantir makes its offerings easier to digest and more relevant as digital transformation across the enterprise sector rapidly accelerates, driving better capitalization of related growth opportunities ahead. Recent management rhetoric on slowing SPAC investments are also welcomed news by many investors, as previous concerns of over-reliance on affiliated commercial sector revenues are putting sustainability of Palantir’s topline growth into question.</p><p>While the market performance of growth stocks like Palantir have continued to be challenged by the Fed pivot towards a more aggressive monetary policy stance to quell 40-year-high inflation, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and rapid acceleration of digital transformation trends continues to support the company’s fundamental performance by highlighting the value its technologies bring to the table. However, the stock likely faces further near-term volatility as investors continue to mull on the “[durability of Palantir’s] government business and yields on recent investments in commercial”, while broader markets await for further clarity on where current macroeconomic conditions are headed. Yet, with Palantir pushing through on its longer-term growth initiatives, including further expansion into non-U.S. opportunities and continued modularization of its offerings, to encourage mass market adoption and better capitalization of digitization opportunities in coming years, we expect favourable risk/reward at the stock’s current price levels for investors with patience.</p><p><b>Palantir - Brief Recap of 1Q22 Fundamental Performance</b></p><p>Palantir reported first quarter revenues of $446 million (+31% y/y; +3% q/q), beating consensus estimate of $443.51 million (+30% y/y; +2% q/q) and its previous guidance of $443 million (+30% y/y; +2% q/q). But government revenues continued to decelerate at 16% year-on-year growth in the first quarter, providing no respite to investors’ concerns experienced over the past two quarters. Meanwhile, commercial segment growth remains strong, with revenues increasing 54% year-on-year. In the U.S., enterprise opportunities drew in revenue growth of more than 136% year-on-year, which are impressive results that resonate with signs of an inflationary-resistant demand environment ahead of robust digitization trends.</p><p>Earnings fell short of expectations at $0.02 per share, compared with consensus estimate of $0.04 per share. But losses continue to narrow, showing positive progress towards profit realization by mid-decade.</p><p>Meanwhile, cash from operations remain strong, coming in at $35 million for the first quarter (8% margin), while adjusted free cash flows totalled $30 million (7% margin). As discussed in our previous coverage, Palantir’s robust balance sheet with $2.3 billion in cash on hand and zero debt remains a competitive advantage that will minimize its exposure to rising costs of capital ahead and maintain its ability to invest in continued growth.</p><p><b>Expectations for Backloaded Government Growth</b></p><p>Palantir continues to show favourable developments this year across both its government and commercial segments based on recent deal wins observed, bolstering sustainability of its multi-year growth target of more than 30% on an annual basis. While government revenue growth continued to decelerate for the third consecutive quarter, we are expecting some of the new deal wins in response to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war to materialize further in the latter half of the year. This is also corroborated by management’s expectations for a “wide range of potential upside to [its second quarter guidance], including those driven by [Palantir’s] role in responding to developing geopolitical events”. Paired with continuing momentum from Palantir’s commercial segment, the company continues to show favourable fundamental growth prospects in line with its long-term target despite tightening financial conditions in the current market climate.</p><p><b>Boosted Global Military Spending Tailwinds</b></p><p>On the military front, global governments have been bolstering their defense spending in response to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. U.S. allies in Europe are increasing adoption of Palantir’s solutions to facilitate current war efforts spanning “the distribution of materials such as food and beds to Ukrainian refugees…, [to powering] military response against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine”. The war-driven tailwinds for Palantir are further corroborated by the spike in global military spending this year, which has surpassed $2 trillion for the first time and “looks set to rise further as European countries beef up their armed forces in response to Ukraine war”.</p><p><b>Europe:</b>European military expenditures have been increasing for seven years straight, and the trend is expected to “accelerate and intensify” in response to the latest geopolitical crisis in Ukraine. The development bodes favourably with Palantir’s amped up efforts in penetrating opportunities outside of the U.S., especially in Europe. Last quarter, the company announced plans to expand its salesforce in Europe with at least 175 experienced hires this year to accelerate market penetration across the region’s public sector. The announcement came shortly after the company appointed Philippe Mathieu as President of Palantir EMEA to take charge of leading Palantir’s penetration into the sizable addressable market in Europe. And these efforts have already started to pay off nicely, as evidenced by Palantir’s latest contract win with the U.K. Ministry of Defence (“MoD”). Valued at $12.5 million, the contract would require Palantir to implement its Foundry platform across the MoD to enable cost efficiencies by “automating work and reducing data-processing time”.</p><p>Defense spending by the European government alone accounts for a fifth of the global total, underscoring the massive growth opportunities that await Palantir. This is further bolstered by “early indications that modernizing and upgrading weapons systems will be a key priority” for the European governments. Many of the challenges observed in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war have been “related to things like logistics, fuel, tires and secure communications”, which suggests that a war chest of weapons is insufficient in modern-day warfare and must be complemented by technologies like AI and data analytics to ensure adequate progress. This accordingly reflects Palantir’s improved position in benefiting from a “favourable government spending environment”, especially in Europe, over coming years.</p><p><b>U.S.:</b> Similar tailwinds are expected from the U.S., which is currently the world’s largest military spender. The U.S. government allocated $801 billion to the armed forces last year, representing “as much as 39% of global expenditures”. There has also been an increasing deployment of related funds towards “military research and development, suggesting that the U.S. is focusing more on next-generation technologies”, which bolsters Palantir’s longer-term government segment outlook. Looking ahead, President Biden has recently requested “$813.3 billion in national security spending, including $773 billion for the Pentagon, in the federal budget” for fiscal 2023. The proposed budget represents a 4% increase from the current fiscal year and exceeds the fiscal 2023 budget projected by the White House a year ago by more than $40 billion. In addition to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, the U.S. government’s beefed-up budget also “reflects the increasing military challenge from China”.</p><p>A meaningful portion of the allocated budget to the Pentagon – about $130 billion of the $773 billion – will be deployed towards “development of costly new defense systems…, [including] accelerated research into hypersonics and AI”, representing an increase of $15.6 billion compared to projections outlined in the fiscal 2023 budget made last year. But with rising inflationary pressures, some industry experts are expending an even larger increase to related spending in the coming fiscal year, underscoring even greater opportunities for next-generation warfare technology providers like Palantir.</p><p><b>Expanding Adjacent Non-Military Opportunities</b></p><p>Palantir’s effective deployment of COVID-era solutions and support to various non-military public agencies in recent years has also continued to bolster its growing share of related government procurement contracts. In the core U.S. market alone, non-defense agency contracts represented more than 52% of total public sector awards received by the company to date. This continues to underscore Palantir’s ability in diversifying government segment growth drivers and benefiting from opportunities related to major non-defense government agencies. Continued penetration of non-defense government opportunities, which represents about 3% to 4% of annual GDP in the U.S. alone, paired with increased military expenditure in the near-term are expected to reinforce Palantir’s government segment performance:</p><ul><li>COVID-19 Response for the CDC: The latest contract forged between Palantir and the CDC pertaining to the U.S. government’s ongoing COVID-19 response efforts highlights the company’s continued effectiveness in executing its land and expand business strategy. The expanded partnership underscores Palantir’s effective job as a “trusted technology partner” during the pandemic-era. Specifically, the latest partnership with the CDC results from Palantir’s success in helping the Department of Health and Human Services (“HHS”) with vaccine distribution in mid-2020. Palantir’s solutions have been procured under the latest contract with the CDC, valued at $5.3 million, to support the department’s “key distribution and supply chain efforts” pertaining to ongoing COVID-19 response efforts.</li><li>CDC DCIPHER Program Extension: The CDC has expanded its use of Palantir’s solutions in support of the “Data Collation and Integration for Public Health Event Response” (“DCIPHER”) Program. Palantir has been supporting the roll-out of the CDC’s DCIPHER Program since 2010. The latest extension will further Palantir’s participation in the CDC’s ongoing efforts related to modernizing the agency’s data management system, and supporting “time-sensitive data integration, management and analysis that widespread events require”.</li><li>HHS SHARE Blanket Purchase Agreement: Earlier this month, Palantir was rewarded another contract by the HHS to support its “5-year Solutioning with Holistic Analytics Restructure for the Enterprise (“SHARE”)” program under a Blanket Purchase Agreement (“BPA”). Valued at $90 million, the BPA will require Palantir’s platform be implemented across the HHS’ “many agencies and missions…to support their work”. Palantir was selected based on its proven strength in delivering effective “built-in data protection features, innovative technology, and common security framework”, which further corroborates our observations that the company’s achievements with non-defense public agencies during the pandemic-era have been a beneficial trial period that is driving today’s expansion. Palantir’s initial obligation under the BPA is a “10.5 month, multi-million-dollar contract to support HHS’ core administrative data and applications through a vertically integrated platform that allows teams to configure low to no code applications to manage, ingest, and access data securely, across business domains” using its Foundry platform.</li></ul><p><b>Commercial Acceleration</b></p><p>Acceleration in Palantir’s commercial sector has been consistently gaining momentum in recent quarters. Despite tightening financial conditions in the economy, the segment’s latest results continue to underscore the critical role that Palantir plays in the enterprise sector’s ongoing digital transformation efforts. More than half of the corporate scene have expressed that they would rather “tighten the belt” in other parts of the business than to miss out on digital transformation, which is considered a strategic investment in differentiating themselves from competitors, while also enabling cost efficiencies. Commercial customers are increasing demand for tools to make sense of their massive data troves. To date, only 4% of companies claim to have a &#34;highly sophisticated approach to leveraging data”, leaving sizable growth opportunities for Palantir over coming years.</p><p><b>Modularization:</b>The company’s continued commitment to modularization and honing its offerings to better suit end users’ needs are also bolstering its capitalization of opportunities stemming from demand environment. In addition to Foundry for Builders, which we have previously analyzed as an effective tool for driving mass market adoption in the corporate sector over coming years, Palantir has also been ramping up deployment of modular offerings like “Carbon Emissions Management” and “Anti-Money Laundering / Know Your Client” solutions to increase its appeal to the commercial sector, including the emerging crypto sector, which stands to expose Palantir to a broader market that is expected to grow into a $67 billion opportunity by mid-decade.</p><p><b>Industry-Specific Solutions:</b>There has also been a consistent trend of leveraging third-party expertise in the development of industry-tailored versions of its Foundry platform. After forging a $25 million multi-year deal with Hyundai Heavy earlier this year to co-develop and commercialize software tools curated for breaking down siloed data fields across relevant workflows spanning shipbuilding to industrial machinery processes, Palantir is back at it again with a similar deal forged with Jacobs (J), a consulting and project delivery expert for both the public and private sectors.</p><p>Palantir and Jacobs will collaborate on the development and launch of a “joint data analytics offering to support public and private sector clients in solving their most complex water infrastructure problems”. Built on Palantir’s Foundry platform, the joint data analytics offering will also be leveraging Jacobs’ existing expertise in providing operations and maintenance (“O&amp;M”) solutions to the water sector, as well as its “proprietary machine learning modules and wastewater process optimization tools”. The joint analytics tool aims at driving insights that can help increase water plant performance, cost efficiencies, security from cyber threats, and compliance with ESG goals – all of which are pressing needs to support the evolution of critical water infrastructure required to satisfy rising “global demand for clean water, more stringent regulatory issues, and increasing environmental concerns”. With the global water and wastewater treatment addressable market expected to exceed $200 billion by mid-decade, Palantir’s latest foray into the water infrastructure sector with the help of Jacobs marks another significant step towards greater commercial penetration.</p><p><b>Seamless Digital Migration with Apollo:</b>In addition to developments made with Foundry that are accelerating growth for Palantir’s commercial segment, the company’s recent roll-out of a new suite of offerings available within Apollo also heightens its appeal to the enterprise sector. Apollo is an operating system developed by Palantir to facilitate “autonomous software deployment across environments” faster and in a more efficient way to ensure scalability. Apollo has already “managed the deployment, security, and upgrades for Palantir’s software, including 500+ independently released microservices across 300+ unique environments”, accentuating the system’s proven effectiveness.</p><p>The latest product additions within Apollo include “Cloud Portability”, which allows “organizations to maintain flexibility across cloud providers” by housing different cloud provider managed operating systems under <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> roof. This creates a particular appeal to the corporate sector’s increasing migration of workloads from legacy IT systems to the cloud, which is considered a business essential that drives “better economies, more innovation and greater speed”. With more than half of global corporations indicating plans to allocate a significant share of budgeted investments to cloud-related projects over the next two years, the Apollo operating system and its newly curated offerings stand to further Palantir’s reach into related opportunities over coming years.</p><p><b>Fundamental Estimate Update</b></p><p>Adjusting our latest Palantir financial forecast for its actual first quarter financial results, and growth outlook based on recent developments discussed in the foregoing analysis, the company remains on a positive track towards reaching +30% revenue growth this year. Our base case forecast expects revenues to total $2.0 billion by the end of the year (+30% y/y), driven by continued commercial acceleration, as well as restored government momentum in the latter half resulting from solution deployments related to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.</p><p>Consistent with narrowing losses observed in recent quarters, the company’s expected trajectory towards profits by mid-decade remains intact. Operating margins are expected to further improve over time as Palantir continues to ramp deployment of new and existing offerings and achieve greater economies of scale. Share-based compensation expenses, which investors consider a sore spot for the company, are also expected to further improve and taper towards lower levels by mid-decade. Share-based compensation as a percentage of total revenues has consistently improved from 116% in 2020 (4Q20: 75%) to about 50% in 2021 (4Q21: 39%) and 33% in 1Q22. This continues to signal Palantir&#39;s increasing balance between top talent retention through generous compensation packages and growth-driven economies of scale to facilitate meaningful margin expansion towards GAAP-based net profits by 2025.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd5dc583f4af09214f856ea934172fdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Palantir Financial Forecast (Author)</span></p><p><b>PLTR</b> <b>Stock Valuation Update</b></p><p>The market continues to be extremely unforgiving towards signs of near-term underperformance in growth stocks like Palantir. The stock’s massive pullback in value in recent months as a result of three consecutive quarters of decelerating government growth has effectively erased Palantir’s previous premium to the broader SaaS peer group. At under $8 per share (May 9th), Palantir current trades at about 6x EV/’23 sales, which is below the SaaS mean of 8.1x and median of 7.8x. Considering Palantir’s continued fundamental strength, which includes 1) continued top-line growth expected at more than 30% per year as analyzed in the foregoing analysis, 2) self-sufficient, cash-positive day-to-day operations, and 3) a robust balance sheet with $2.3 billion in cash on hand and zero debt to facilitate continued growth with minimal exposure to rising costs of capital, we are confident in the return of a favourable risk-reward payoff at current price levels for patient long-term investors.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c2ba02fa1bb38f522606760ccfaf427\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"226\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Palantir Valuation Analysis (Author)</span></p><p>Considering the ongoing compression of valuation multiples observed across the SaaS peer group in response to still-evolving economic uncertainties stemming from macro challenges including runaway inflation and tightening monetary policy, we are adjusting our 12-month price target for the stock from $26 to $15. Our near-term price target implies a 10.8x EV/’23 sales to better reflect the currently contracted valuation environment for SaaS stocks, compensated by Palantir’s increasing appeal to commercial sector digitization needs, and its “favourable government spending environment” expected in the near-term as discussed in earlier sections.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95c199352b87f7154fdda41bff9f33ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Palantir Valuation Analysis (Author)</span></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>While we have tapered our near-term expectations for the stock considering the current risk-off environment for growth equities, we remain optimistic on its longer-term upside potential. Palantir’s software solutions remain the best-in-class for addressing critical data management and analytics needs across both the public and private sector. With robust customer growth still, and a strong demand environment ahead of global digitization trends, Palantir continues to sit on a mountain of opportunities stemming from a market that is still significantly under-addressed. This accordingly underscores further fundamental growth in coming years, buoying better valuation prospects over the longer-term especially when the current market storm subsides.</p><p>Author&#39;s Note: Thank you for reading my analysis. Please note that we will be launching a Livy Investment Research Marketplace service on June 1. The service will allow you to follow my coverage portfolio, interact with me directly, and participate in chat rooms with other subscribers. Early subscribers will receive a legacy discount at $249 per year. Stay tuned for more details as we ramp up to launch in the coming months.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Market Has Completely Misunderstood Its Latest Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Market Has Completely Misunderstood Its Latest Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-10 08:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4509127-palantir-q1-earnings-stock-selloff-market-misunderstood><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir's post-earning sell-off underscores the market's disappointment with another weak showing for government sector revenues.It also accentuates the market's ongoing ignorance of Palantir'...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4509127-palantir-q1-earnings-stock-selloff-market-misunderstood\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4509127-palantir-q1-earnings-stock-selloff-market-misunderstood","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2234773775","content_text":"SummaryPalantir's post-earning sell-off underscores the market's disappointment with another weak showing for government sector revenues.It also accentuates the market's ongoing ignorance of Palantir's success in achieving commercial acceleration despite tightening financial conditions and an increasingly uncertain economic growth outlook.Palantir's continued effectiveness in deploying its \"land and expand\" business growth strategy, as evidence by 1Q22 government contract wins, has also been faced with market disregard.Although the ongoing development of macroeconomic challenges continue to fuel the contracting valuation environment across growth stocks, Palantir's fundamental outlook continues to be supported by a robust demand environment.In addition to continued commercial acceleration, Palantir is expected to benefit from backloaded government growth in the latter half as increasing global military spending in response to ongoing war efforts bolsters favourable near-term trends for the segment.Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesPalantir's stock (NYSE:PLTR) has taken a monthslong beating since reporting two consecutive quarters of mixed results, and after the Fed pivoted towards an aggressive policy stance in November upended the stock market. But regaining footing in the first quarter with a sales beat continues to underscore the company’s fundamental strength, bolstering the outlook on its multi-year growth target of 30% on an annual basis. Palantir continues to demonstrate market share gains across both the public and private sectors by encouraging adoption of its Foundry, Gotham and Apollo solutions through different deployment strategies, including modularization of existing offerings and industry-tailored solutions to better address different end user needs.On the government front, the market appears disappointed still in the segment’s slowing growth, with the stock plummeting close to 20% in pre-market trading. But Palantir continues to demonstrate improvements by expanding existing opportunities with non-defense public agencies. Many renewed contracts with non-defense agencies this year, such as the U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention (“CDC”), are reflective of the value created by adoption of Palantir’s software under non-recurring COVID-era contracts, and underscores the continued effectiveness of the company’s “land and expand” strategy. Palantir has also played a supportive role in bolstering defense for the U.S. and its allies, as well as war relief efforts as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues. The combination of increased market penetration into both non-defense and defense public agencies continues to reinforce sustained growth in Palantir’s government segment.Meanwhile, Palantir’s commercial segment is also demonstrating continued strength, underscoring effectiveness of its recent roll-out of modularized enterprise solutions to break the barrier of IT resistance to complex new software structures like Foundry. By tailoring Foundry solutions to better suit end users’ needs, Palantir makes its offerings easier to digest and more relevant as digital transformation across the enterprise sector rapidly accelerates, driving better capitalization of related growth opportunities ahead. Recent management rhetoric on slowing SPAC investments are also welcomed news by many investors, as previous concerns of over-reliance on affiliated commercial sector revenues are putting sustainability of Palantir’s topline growth into question.While the market performance of growth stocks like Palantir have continued to be challenged by the Fed pivot towards a more aggressive monetary policy stance to quell 40-year-high inflation, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and rapid acceleration of digital transformation trends continues to support the company’s fundamental performance by highlighting the value its technologies bring to the table. However, the stock likely faces further near-term volatility as investors continue to mull on the “[durability of Palantir’s] government business and yields on recent investments in commercial”, while broader markets await for further clarity on where current macroeconomic conditions are headed. Yet, with Palantir pushing through on its longer-term growth initiatives, including further expansion into non-U.S. opportunities and continued modularization of its offerings, to encourage mass market adoption and better capitalization of digitization opportunities in coming years, we expect favourable risk/reward at the stock’s current price levels for investors with patience.Palantir - Brief Recap of 1Q22 Fundamental PerformancePalantir reported first quarter revenues of $446 million (+31% y/y; +3% q/q), beating consensus estimate of $443.51 million (+30% y/y; +2% q/q) and its previous guidance of $443 million (+30% y/y; +2% q/q). But government revenues continued to decelerate at 16% year-on-year growth in the first quarter, providing no respite to investors’ concerns experienced over the past two quarters. Meanwhile, commercial segment growth remains strong, with revenues increasing 54% year-on-year. In the U.S., enterprise opportunities drew in revenue growth of more than 136% year-on-year, which are impressive results that resonate with signs of an inflationary-resistant demand environment ahead of robust digitization trends.Earnings fell short of expectations at $0.02 per share, compared with consensus estimate of $0.04 per share. But losses continue to narrow, showing positive progress towards profit realization by mid-decade.Meanwhile, cash from operations remain strong, coming in at $35 million for the first quarter (8% margin), while adjusted free cash flows totalled $30 million (7% margin). As discussed in our previous coverage, Palantir’s robust balance sheet with $2.3 billion in cash on hand and zero debt remains a competitive advantage that will minimize its exposure to rising costs of capital ahead and maintain its ability to invest in continued growth.Expectations for Backloaded Government GrowthPalantir continues to show favourable developments this year across both its government and commercial segments based on recent deal wins observed, bolstering sustainability of its multi-year growth target of more than 30% on an annual basis. While government revenue growth continued to decelerate for the third consecutive quarter, we are expecting some of the new deal wins in response to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war to materialize further in the latter half of the year. This is also corroborated by management’s expectations for a “wide range of potential upside to [its second quarter guidance], including those driven by [Palantir’s] role in responding to developing geopolitical events”. Paired with continuing momentum from Palantir’s commercial segment, the company continues to show favourable fundamental growth prospects in line with its long-term target despite tightening financial conditions in the current market climate.Boosted Global Military Spending TailwindsOn the military front, global governments have been bolstering their defense spending in response to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. U.S. allies in Europe are increasing adoption of Palantir’s solutions to facilitate current war efforts spanning “the distribution of materials such as food and beds to Ukrainian refugees…, [to powering] military response against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine”. The war-driven tailwinds for Palantir are further corroborated by the spike in global military spending this year, which has surpassed $2 trillion for the first time and “looks set to rise further as European countries beef up their armed forces in response to Ukraine war”.Europe:European military expenditures have been increasing for seven years straight, and the trend is expected to “accelerate and intensify” in response to the latest geopolitical crisis in Ukraine. The development bodes favourably with Palantir’s amped up efforts in penetrating opportunities outside of the U.S., especially in Europe. Last quarter, the company announced plans to expand its salesforce in Europe with at least 175 experienced hires this year to accelerate market penetration across the region’s public sector. The announcement came shortly after the company appointed Philippe Mathieu as President of Palantir EMEA to take charge of leading Palantir’s penetration into the sizable addressable market in Europe. And these efforts have already started to pay off nicely, as evidenced by Palantir’s latest contract win with the U.K. Ministry of Defence (“MoD”). Valued at $12.5 million, the contract would require Palantir to implement its Foundry platform across the MoD to enable cost efficiencies by “automating work and reducing data-processing time”.Defense spending by the European government alone accounts for a fifth of the global total, underscoring the massive growth opportunities that await Palantir. This is further bolstered by “early indications that modernizing and upgrading weapons systems will be a key priority” for the European governments. Many of the challenges observed in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war have been “related to things like logistics, fuel, tires and secure communications”, which suggests that a war chest of weapons is insufficient in modern-day warfare and must be complemented by technologies like AI and data analytics to ensure adequate progress. This accordingly reflects Palantir’s improved position in benefiting from a “favourable government spending environment”, especially in Europe, over coming years.U.S.: Similar tailwinds are expected from the U.S., which is currently the world’s largest military spender. The U.S. government allocated $801 billion to the armed forces last year, representing “as much as 39% of global expenditures”. There has also been an increasing deployment of related funds towards “military research and development, suggesting that the U.S. is focusing more on next-generation technologies”, which bolsters Palantir’s longer-term government segment outlook. Looking ahead, President Biden has recently requested “$813.3 billion in national security spending, including $773 billion for the Pentagon, in the federal budget” for fiscal 2023. The proposed budget represents a 4% increase from the current fiscal year and exceeds the fiscal 2023 budget projected by the White House a year ago by more than $40 billion. In addition to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, the U.S. government’s beefed-up budget also “reflects the increasing military challenge from China”.A meaningful portion of the allocated budget to the Pentagon – about $130 billion of the $773 billion – will be deployed towards “development of costly new defense systems…, [including] accelerated research into hypersonics and AI”, representing an increase of $15.6 billion compared to projections outlined in the fiscal 2023 budget made last year. But with rising inflationary pressures, some industry experts are expending an even larger increase to related spending in the coming fiscal year, underscoring even greater opportunities for next-generation warfare technology providers like Palantir.Expanding Adjacent Non-Military OpportunitiesPalantir’s effective deployment of COVID-era solutions and support to various non-military public agencies in recent years has also continued to bolster its growing share of related government procurement contracts. In the core U.S. market alone, non-defense agency contracts represented more than 52% of total public sector awards received by the company to date. This continues to underscore Palantir’s ability in diversifying government segment growth drivers and benefiting from opportunities related to major non-defense government agencies. Continued penetration of non-defense government opportunities, which represents about 3% to 4% of annual GDP in the U.S. alone, paired with increased military expenditure in the near-term are expected to reinforce Palantir’s government segment performance:COVID-19 Response for the CDC: The latest contract forged between Palantir and the CDC pertaining to the U.S. government’s ongoing COVID-19 response efforts highlights the company’s continued effectiveness in executing its land and expand business strategy. The expanded partnership underscores Palantir’s effective job as a “trusted technology partner” during the pandemic-era. Specifically, the latest partnership with the CDC results from Palantir’s success in helping the Department of Health and Human Services (“HHS”) with vaccine distribution in mid-2020. Palantir’s solutions have been procured under the latest contract with the CDC, valued at $5.3 million, to support the department’s “key distribution and supply chain efforts” pertaining to ongoing COVID-19 response efforts.CDC DCIPHER Program Extension: The CDC has expanded its use of Palantir’s solutions in support of the “Data Collation and Integration for Public Health Event Response” (“DCIPHER”) Program. Palantir has been supporting the roll-out of the CDC’s DCIPHER Program since 2010. The latest extension will further Palantir’s participation in the CDC’s ongoing efforts related to modernizing the agency’s data management system, and supporting “time-sensitive data integration, management and analysis that widespread events require”.HHS SHARE Blanket Purchase Agreement: Earlier this month, Palantir was rewarded another contract by the HHS to support its “5-year Solutioning with Holistic Analytics Restructure for the Enterprise (“SHARE”)” program under a Blanket Purchase Agreement (“BPA”). Valued at $90 million, the BPA will require Palantir’s platform be implemented across the HHS’ “many agencies and missions…to support their work”. Palantir was selected based on its proven strength in delivering effective “built-in data protection features, innovative technology, and common security framework”, which further corroborates our observations that the company’s achievements with non-defense public agencies during the pandemic-era have been a beneficial trial period that is driving today’s expansion. Palantir’s initial obligation under the BPA is a “10.5 month, multi-million-dollar contract to support HHS’ core administrative data and applications through a vertically integrated platform that allows teams to configure low to no code applications to manage, ingest, and access data securely, across business domains” using its Foundry platform.Commercial AccelerationAcceleration in Palantir’s commercial sector has been consistently gaining momentum in recent quarters. Despite tightening financial conditions in the economy, the segment’s latest results continue to underscore the critical role that Palantir plays in the enterprise sector’s ongoing digital transformation efforts. More than half of the corporate scene have expressed that they would rather “tighten the belt” in other parts of the business than to miss out on digital transformation, which is considered a strategic investment in differentiating themselves from competitors, while also enabling cost efficiencies. Commercial customers are increasing demand for tools to make sense of their massive data troves. To date, only 4% of companies claim to have a \"highly sophisticated approach to leveraging data”, leaving sizable growth opportunities for Palantir over coming years.Modularization:The company’s continued commitment to modularization and honing its offerings to better suit end users’ needs are also bolstering its capitalization of opportunities stemming from demand environment. In addition to Foundry for Builders, which we have previously analyzed as an effective tool for driving mass market adoption in the corporate sector over coming years, Palantir has also been ramping up deployment of modular offerings like “Carbon Emissions Management” and “Anti-Money Laundering / Know Your Client” solutions to increase its appeal to the commercial sector, including the emerging crypto sector, which stands to expose Palantir to a broader market that is expected to grow into a $67 billion opportunity by mid-decade.Industry-Specific Solutions:There has also been a consistent trend of leveraging third-party expertise in the development of industry-tailored versions of its Foundry platform. After forging a $25 million multi-year deal with Hyundai Heavy earlier this year to co-develop and commercialize software tools curated for breaking down siloed data fields across relevant workflows spanning shipbuilding to industrial machinery processes, Palantir is back at it again with a similar deal forged with Jacobs (J), a consulting and project delivery expert for both the public and private sectors.Palantir and Jacobs will collaborate on the development and launch of a “joint data analytics offering to support public and private sector clients in solving their most complex water infrastructure problems”. Built on Palantir’s Foundry platform, the joint data analytics offering will also be leveraging Jacobs’ existing expertise in providing operations and maintenance (“O&M”) solutions to the water sector, as well as its “proprietary machine learning modules and wastewater process optimization tools”. The joint analytics tool aims at driving insights that can help increase water plant performance, cost efficiencies, security from cyber threats, and compliance with ESG goals – all of which are pressing needs to support the evolution of critical water infrastructure required to satisfy rising “global demand for clean water, more stringent regulatory issues, and increasing environmental concerns”. With the global water and wastewater treatment addressable market expected to exceed $200 billion by mid-decade, Palantir’s latest foray into the water infrastructure sector with the help of Jacobs marks another significant step towards greater commercial penetration.Seamless Digital Migration with Apollo:In addition to developments made with Foundry that are accelerating growth for Palantir’s commercial segment, the company’s recent roll-out of a new suite of offerings available within Apollo also heightens its appeal to the enterprise sector. Apollo is an operating system developed by Palantir to facilitate “autonomous software deployment across environments” faster and in a more efficient way to ensure scalability. Apollo has already “managed the deployment, security, and upgrades for Palantir’s software, including 500+ independently released microservices across 300+ unique environments”, accentuating the system’s proven effectiveness.The latest product additions within Apollo include “Cloud Portability”, which allows “organizations to maintain flexibility across cloud providers” by housing different cloud provider managed operating systems under one roof. This creates a particular appeal to the corporate sector’s increasing migration of workloads from legacy IT systems to the cloud, which is considered a business essential that drives “better economies, more innovation and greater speed”. With more than half of global corporations indicating plans to allocate a significant share of budgeted investments to cloud-related projects over the next two years, the Apollo operating system and its newly curated offerings stand to further Palantir’s reach into related opportunities over coming years.Fundamental Estimate UpdateAdjusting our latest Palantir financial forecast for its actual first quarter financial results, and growth outlook based on recent developments discussed in the foregoing analysis, the company remains on a positive track towards reaching +30% revenue growth this year. Our base case forecast expects revenues to total $2.0 billion by the end of the year (+30% y/y), driven by continued commercial acceleration, as well as restored government momentum in the latter half resulting from solution deployments related to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.Consistent with narrowing losses observed in recent quarters, the company’s expected trajectory towards profits by mid-decade remains intact. Operating margins are expected to further improve over time as Palantir continues to ramp deployment of new and existing offerings and achieve greater economies of scale. Share-based compensation expenses, which investors consider a sore spot for the company, are also expected to further improve and taper towards lower levels by mid-decade. Share-based compensation as a percentage of total revenues has consistently improved from 116% in 2020 (4Q20: 75%) to about 50% in 2021 (4Q21: 39%) and 33% in 1Q22. This continues to signal Palantir's increasing balance between top talent retention through generous compensation packages and growth-driven economies of scale to facilitate meaningful margin expansion towards GAAP-based net profits by 2025.Palantir Financial Forecast (Author)PLTR Stock Valuation UpdateThe market continues to be extremely unforgiving towards signs of near-term underperformance in growth stocks like Palantir. The stock’s massive pullback in value in recent months as a result of three consecutive quarters of decelerating government growth has effectively erased Palantir’s previous premium to the broader SaaS peer group. At under $8 per share (May 9th), Palantir current trades at about 6x EV/’23 sales, which is below the SaaS mean of 8.1x and median of 7.8x. Considering Palantir’s continued fundamental strength, which includes 1) continued top-line growth expected at more than 30% per year as analyzed in the foregoing analysis, 2) self-sufficient, cash-positive day-to-day operations, and 3) a robust balance sheet with $2.3 billion in cash on hand and zero debt to facilitate continued growth with minimal exposure to rising costs of capital, we are confident in the return of a favourable risk-reward payoff at current price levels for patient long-term investors.Palantir Valuation Analysis (Author)Considering the ongoing compression of valuation multiples observed across the SaaS peer group in response to still-evolving economic uncertainties stemming from macro challenges including runaway inflation and tightening monetary policy, we are adjusting our 12-month price target for the stock from $26 to $15. Our near-term price target implies a 10.8x EV/’23 sales to better reflect the currently contracted valuation environment for SaaS stocks, compensated by Palantir’s increasing appeal to commercial sector digitization needs, and its “favourable government spending environment” expected in the near-term as discussed in earlier sections.Palantir Valuation Analysis (Author)ConclusionWhile we have tapered our near-term expectations for the stock considering the current risk-off environment for growth equities, we remain optimistic on its longer-term upside potential. Palantir’s software solutions remain the best-in-class for addressing critical data management and analytics needs across both the public and private sector. With robust customer growth still, and a strong demand environment ahead of global digitization trends, Palantir continues to sit on a mountain of opportunities stemming from a market that is still significantly under-addressed. This accordingly underscores further fundamental growth in coming years, buoying better valuation prospects over the longer-term especially when the current market storm subsides.Author's Note: Thank you for reading my analysis. Please note that we will be launching a Livy Investment Research Marketplace service on June 1. The service will allow you to follow my coverage portfolio, interact with me directly, and participate in chat rooms with other subscribers. Early subscribers will receive a legacy discount at $249 per year. Stay tuned for more details as we ramp up to launch in the coming months.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9086659371,"gmtCreate":1650452969240,"gmtModify":1676534727008,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is this Gordon?","listText":"Is this Gordon?","text":"Is this Gordon?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9086659371","repostId":"1105569285","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105569285","pubTimestamp":1650468622,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105569285?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-20 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is The End Near For Musk And Tesla?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105569285","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryDespite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Despite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.</li><li>While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.</li><li>The hype around Musk’s stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead of Tesla.</li></ul><p>For years, Elon Musk has used hype to prop up Tesla’s stock. It’s worked so well that other companies have followed his lead. But now, we think the world has seen that the emperor has no clothes. The attempted Twitter (TWTR) takeover is yet another example of Musk bullying his way into what he wants and underscores how his super-star status cannot always convince people to overlook his irreverent, reckless, and potentially illegal behavior. As the recent lawsuit againstMusk shows, he is not completely immune from the consequences of his actions. Despite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.</p><p><b>End of the Road for Musk</b></p><p>Most investors are keenly aware of Musk’s long history of making grand promises that don’t come true – the Roadster, the Semi, the Cybertruck, full-self driving (FSD) etc. – and at times are blatantly unethical, such as tweeting “funding secured” to go private, and pumping Doge coin. But now, we have evidence that he may have acted illegally in the way he reported his purchases of Twitter stock. Given the clear rules about how investors should report large stakes in public companies – like what Musk has in Twitter – this case seems straightforward: Musk broke the rules.</p><p>The next question is how severely he will be punished. If the past is any guide, regulators will not muster more than a slap on the wrist. The real question is how institutional investors will react to signs Musk has pushed the envelope too far.</p><p>Institutional investors own Tesla stock more often because they must, given its influence on their performance, than because they see it as a good investment. Any investor with a rigorous process can see the stock is ridiculously overvalued; so, you own it for the “Musk effect”. Accordingly, the institutional investors’ decision to sell Tesla stock will be based on when Musk’s outsized influence begins to wane.</p><p>We think that moment has come.</p><p><b>Musk Meets His Maker: Twitter</b></p><p>In our view, Musk’s repeated rule-breaking behavior has finally gone too far. Details of the case are still emerging, but Musk’s failure to disclose his more than 5% stake in Twitter arguably hurt investors who sold shares after he crossed that ownership threshold. Instead, Musk kept purchasing shares until reaching a 9% stake in Twitter before disclosing his position. The initial class-action lawsuit and the potential for more have finally gotten the attention of investors, if not regulators.</p><p>The poor reception Twitter’s employees gave the news of Musk’s stake is a very public rejection of his super-star influencer status and provide the first tangible evidence that maybe his star power has limitations. If a hostile takeover prompts a mass exodus of talent, then Musk might end up destroying the company in the process of buying it. That being said, the loudest voices in the company are not necessarily the most valuable.</p><p>As more people join lawsuits against Musk, and Twitter employees continue to express their mistrust of the company’s largest shareholder, institutional investors may seize this moment to quietly unload their shares of overvalued Tesla stock. Now is the time to sell because the price of the stock to this point has been more a reflection of Musk’s ability to draw an audience than any underlying fundamental value in the company.</p><p><b>Live by the Stunt, Die by the Stunt</b></p><p>Ultimately, it appears that as much as Twitter was the launch pad for Musk’s super influence powers, his failure thus far to win the publicity battle could mark the beginning-of-the-end of his super-star status.</p><p>Musk’s Twitter play, which is another in a long series of distractions, could end poorly for Musk. Instead of addressing Tesla’s issues, Musk appears to be attempting to position himself as a defender of free speech. The risk he faces is that instead of looking like a hero he looks more like a bully running an ego-driven takeover with little regard for the rules. While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable (more on this below), a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.</p><p>Tesla’s investors have not been impressed with Musk’s Twitter antics either, as the stock is down 11% since he announced his ownership in the social media giant. Likewise, the “Musk bump” in Twitter shares is likely to fade as investors realize the only value Musk brought was publicity, and not good publicity either. Although Twitter remains a popular platform, it has its own problems and suggestions such as removing a letter from its name can do more harm than good.</p><p><b>Why Haven’t Regulators Done Anything Before Now?</b></p><p>Tesla’s high stock price has, thus far, kept its CEO well beyond an arm’s length of regulators. Other executives in other times likely would have faced consequences for many of the things Musk has said and done. Today, Tesla’s high stock price indicates investors’ collective belief in Musk’s promises and protects Musk. Regulators don’t want to be accused of causing the company’s stock price to fall, thereby destroying the wealth of many investors and, as a result, footing the cost of defending against numerous shareholder lawsuits.</p><p>Furthermore, Musk can claim Tesla’s elevated stock price and the wealth it endows is what he needs to fulfill his outlandish promises over time. However, should Tesla’s stock price ever reflect realistic expectations for the company, authorities may feel emboldened to pursue legal or regulatory action against Musk and/or Tesla. Credible claims can be made for several offenses, including:</p><ul><li>stock and cryptocurrency manipulation</li><li>false advertising of Full Self Driving (FSD)</li><li>ignoring safety authorities</li><li>neglecting to file documentation on time related to his purchase of Twitter’s shares</li><li>and other claims of dubious veracity</li></ul><p><b>What Will Regulators Do When the Bubble Pops?</b></p><p>Musk has positioned himself as a pop-culture icon. Though society loves to build up celebrities, so too does it love tearing them down even more. Once Tesla’s stock price falls from its overly inflated levels, Musk will lose his cover that has protected him from all his unethical and arguably illegal behavior. Regulators are likely to come after Musk with knives out after all the humiliation they had to suffer at his hand.</p><p><b>Trouble on the Horizon</b></p><p>All the hype around Musk’s large stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead for Tesla. Of course, that is likely his goal. Below we discuss the fundamentals of Tesla’s business, which cannot be wished away or made irrelevant with hype.</p><p><b>Incumbents Are Catching Up:</b> Tesla’s first-mover advantage has long been cited as reason enough for investors to pile their money into the company. However, that advantage is gone, and in some cases turning into a lag. Ford (F), Rivian (RIVN), and General Motors (GM) aim to produce EV trucks in 2022, but Tesla will be on the sidelines until at least 2023 before launching its Cybertruck.</p><p>The rising competition from incumbents means the days of Tesla’s rising profitability could be numbered. For starters, 26% of the company’s GAAP earnings in 2021 were from the sale of regulatory credits, not from the underlying economics of making and selling vehicles and other ancillary services.</p><p>Once incumbents increase production of EVs they will need to purchase fewer credits from Elon. That means Tesla needs to actually start <i>selling</i> <i>cars</i>to make money. The catch-22 is that for the company to sell more cars, it first needs to increase its production capacity. If Tesla’s succeeds in selling more cars capital expenditure and working capital are primed to grow along with sales. Tesla needs to build economies of scale before it can benefit from them.</p><p><b>Market Share Losses Continue:</b> Incumbent automakers have entered the EV market with scale and are already taking market share from Tesla. Per Figure 2, Tesla’s share of global EV sales fell from 16% in 2019 to 14% in 2021.</p><p>Tesla’s share of the U.S. EV market fell from 79% in2020to 70% in2021. With light truck sales comprising more than three out of every four vehicles sold in the U.S. in January 2022, Tesla falling behind in truck EVs means its share of the U.S. market could fall further.</p><p><b>Figure 2: Tesla’s Share of the Global EV Sales</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc4dd16dde86e1ab31f85bd8a2af4aee\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"260\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSLA Market Share Since 2019(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC, EV-volumes.com and Statista</p><p><b>Slow Start to 2022:</b>Though Teslaforecastedan at least 50% YoY rise in deliveries in 2022, the company is feeling the effects of supply chain problems – just like every other automaker. The company delivered 310,000 vehicles in the quarter, while consensus estimates were for 313,000.</p><p><b>Reverse DCF Math: Valuation Implies Tesla Will Own at Least 57% of the Global Passenger EV Market</b></p><p>Despite the increased competition, failure to meet delivery expectations, and diminutive share of the global EV market in 2021, Tesla’s valuation implies the company will own 57% of the global passenger EV market in 2030.</p><p>Even if Tesla increases the average selling price (ASP) per vehicle to $55K vs. ($49K in 2021), Tesla’s stock price at ~$1,100/share implies the firm will sell 15 million vehicles in 2030 versus ~936k in 2021. That figure represents 57% of the projected base case global EV passenger vehicle market in 2030 and the implied vehicle sales based on a lower ASP looks even more unrealistic.</p><p>To provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations reflected in Tesla’s stock price, we assume Tesla achieves profit margins 1.5x Toyota Motor Corp (TM) and triples its current auto manufacturing efficiency.</p><p>Per Figure 3, an $1,100/share price implies that, in 2030, Tesla will sell the following number of vehicles based on these ASP benchmarks:</p><ul><li>15 million vehicles – ASP of $55K (above average U.S. new car price of $47K in 2021)</li><li>7 million vehicles – ASP of $49K (equal to Tesla’s 2021 ASP[1])</li><li>21 million vehicles – ASP of $38K (equal to General Motors’ ASP[2] of $38K in 2021)</li></ul><p>If Tesla achieves those EV sales, the implied market share for the company would be the following (assuming global passenger EV sales reach 26 million in 2030, the base case projection from the IEA):</p><ul><li>57% for 15 million vehicles</li><li>64% for 17 million vehicles</li><li>83% for 21 million vehicles</li></ul><p>If we assume the IEA’s best case for global passenger EV sales in 2030, 47 million vehicles, the above vehicle sales represent:</p><ul><li>31% for 15 million vehicles</li><li>35% for 17 million vehicles</li><li>45% for 21 million vehicles</li></ul><p><b>Figure 3: Tesla’s Implied Vehicle Sales in 2030 to Justify $1,100/Share</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bad84793f241565c81ebb0d29b01242c\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSLA DCF Implied Vehicle Production(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings</p><p><b>Tesla Must Generate More Profits Than Apple For Investors to Make Money</b></p><p>Below are the assumptions we use in our reverse discounted cash flow model to calculate the implied production levels above.</p><p>Bulls should understand what Tesla needs to accomplish to justify ~$1,100/share:</p><ul><li>immediately achieve a 14% NOPAT margin (1.5x Toyota’s margin, which is the highest of the large-scale automakers we cover), compared to Tesla’s TTM margin of 8%) and</li><li>grow revenue by 32% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.</li></ul><p>In this scenario, Tesla generates <i>$811 billion</i> in revenue in 2030, which is 116% of the combined revenues of Toyota, Stellantis (STLA), Ford, General Motors, and Honda (HMC) over the past twelve months. Tesla must replace the U.S. auto industry before 2030 to justify current valuations.</p><p>This scenario also implies Tesla grows net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) by 2,458% from 2021 to 2030. In this scenario, Tesla generates $112 billion in NOPAT in 2030, or 12% higher than Apple’s (AAPL) TTM NOPAT, which, at $100 billion, is the highest of all companies we cover, and 65% higher than Microsoft (MSFT), the second-highest. Those companies have intertwined themselves in the lives of consumers and businesses around the world, which seems an unlikely feat for Tesla at this point.</p><p><b>TSLA Has 46% Downside If Morgan Stanley Is Right About Sales</b></p><p>If we assume Tesla reaches Morgan Stanley’s estimate of selling 8.1 million cars in 2030 (which implies a 31% share of the global passenger EV market in 2030), at an ASP of $55k, the stock is worth just $542/share. Details:</p><ul><li>NOPAT margin improves to 14% and</li><li>revenue grows 27% compounded annually over the next decade, then</li></ul><p>the stock is worth just $547/share today – a 46% downside to the current price. See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario. In this scenario, Tesla grows NOPAT to $62 billion, or nearly 14x its 2021 NOPAT, and just 7% below Alphabet’s (GOOGL) 2021 NOPAT.</p><p><b>TSLA Has 80%+ Downside Even with 27% Market Share and Realistic Margins</b></p><p>If we estimate more reasonable (but still very optimistic) margins and market share achievements for Tesla, the stock is worth just $200/share. Here’s the math:</p><ul><li>NOPAT margin improves to 9% (equal to Toyota’s TTM margin) and</li><li>revenue grows by consensus estimates from 2022 to 2024 and</li><li>revenue grows 17% a year from 2025 to 2030, then</li></ul><p>the stock is worth just $200/share today – an 80% downside to the current price.</p><p>In this scenario, Tesla sells 7 million cars (27% of the global passenger EV market in 2030) at an ASP of $47K (average new car price in U.S. in 2021) and grows NOPAT by 24% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.</p><p>We also assume a more realistic NOPAT margin of 9% in this scenario, which is 1.3x higher than Toyota’s industry-leading five-year average NOPAT margin of 7%. Given the required capital requirements to fund manufacturing and match increased competition in the EV market, Tesla is unlikely to achieve and sustain a margin as high as 9% from 2022 to 2030. If Tesla fails to meet these expectations, then the stock is worth less than $200/share.</p><p>Figure 4 compares the firm’s historical NOPAT to the NOPAT implied in the above scenarios to illustrate just how high the expectations baked into Tesla’s stock price remain. For additional context, we show Toyota’s, General Motors’, and Apple’s TTM NOPAT.</p><p><b>Figure 4: Tesla’s Historical and Implied NOPAT: DCF Valuation Scenarios</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e43f865637ac4c84e8199df2b05d061\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSLA DCF Implied NOPAT(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings</p><p>Each of the above scenarios assumes Tesla’s invested capital grows 14% compounded annually through 2030. For reference, Tesla’s invested capital grew 49% compounded annually from 2011 to 2021 and 30% compounded annually since 2015.</p><p>An invested capital CAGR of 14% represents 1/3rdthe CAGR of Tesla’s property, plant, and equipment since 2011 and assumes the company can build future plants and produce cars 3x more efficiently than it has so far.</p><p>In other words, we aim to provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations for future market share and profits reflected in Tesla’s stock market valuation.</p><p><b>Tesla Won’t Be the Only One to Fall</b></p><p>Other meme stocks have taken pages from the Musk playbook and will likely suffer the same fate we expect Tesla to suffer once the game is up. GameStop (GME) promised to transform itself into an ecommerce powerhouse, yet the company continues to head in the opposite direction and earnings continue to disappoint. GameStop’s Core Earnings fell from -$200 million in fiscal 2021 to -$321 million in fiscal 2022.</p><p>Despite the company’s inability to quickly execute operational change, GameStop’s stock has remained well above a reasonable valuation thanks in part to announcing the launch of a marketplace for nonfungible tokens (NFTs) and partnerships with blockchain firms.</p><p>AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) has also run several Tesla-esque plays to prop up its stock. Indeed, the company’s CEO recently tweeted that the company is “playing on offense again” with its investment in a microcap gold mine. Before gold mines, the company got on the crypto bandwagon in 2021 by accepting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Litecoin.</p><p>Beyond the repeated attempts at propping up their stocks, the fundamentally weak business models of Tesla, GameStop, and AMC Entertainment in highly competitive industries burn cash and continue to dilute shareholders whenever possible. Per Figure 5, despite combining for more than $1.1 trillion of market cap, Tesla, AMC Entertainment, and GameStop have a combined economic book value, our measure of the no growth value of a stock, of -$52 billion and -$4.3 billion of free cash flow over the past twelve months.</p><p><b>Figure 5: Meme Stock’s Market Cap, Economic Book Value &amp; FCF: TTM</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add55782c8e6b0e8a891f84c9ec7421f\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"119\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Meme Stocks Market Cap, Economic Book Value, FCF(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings</p><p><i>This article originally published on April 14, 2022.</i></p><p><i>Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, and Matt Shuler receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector, style, or theme.</i></p><p>[1] Tesla’s ASP = (total automotive revenues – regulatory credits) / deliveries</p><p>[2] General Motors’ ASP = Vehicle, parts and accessories / wholesale vehicle sales</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs The End Near For Musk And Tesla?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-20 23:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501979-is-the-end-near-for-musk-and-tesla><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryDespite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501979-is-the-end-near-for-musk-and-tesla\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501979-is-the-end-near-for-musk-and-tesla","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105569285","content_text":"SummaryDespite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.The hype around Musk’s stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead of Tesla.For years, Elon Musk has used hype to prop up Tesla’s stock. It’s worked so well that other companies have followed his lead. But now, we think the world has seen that the emperor has no clothes. The attempted Twitter (TWTR) takeover is yet another example of Musk bullying his way into what he wants and underscores how his super-star status cannot always convince people to overlook his irreverent, reckless, and potentially illegal behavior. As the recent lawsuit againstMusk shows, he is not completely immune from the consequences of his actions. Despite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.End of the Road for MuskMost investors are keenly aware of Musk’s long history of making grand promises that don’t come true – the Roadster, the Semi, the Cybertruck, full-self driving (FSD) etc. – and at times are blatantly unethical, such as tweeting “funding secured” to go private, and pumping Doge coin. But now, we have evidence that he may have acted illegally in the way he reported his purchases of Twitter stock. Given the clear rules about how investors should report large stakes in public companies – like what Musk has in Twitter – this case seems straightforward: Musk broke the rules.The next question is how severely he will be punished. If the past is any guide, regulators will not muster more than a slap on the wrist. The real question is how institutional investors will react to signs Musk has pushed the envelope too far.Institutional investors own Tesla stock more often because they must, given its influence on their performance, than because they see it as a good investment. Any investor with a rigorous process can see the stock is ridiculously overvalued; so, you own it for the “Musk effect”. Accordingly, the institutional investors’ decision to sell Tesla stock will be based on when Musk’s outsized influence begins to wane.We think that moment has come.Musk Meets His Maker: TwitterIn our view, Musk’s repeated rule-breaking behavior has finally gone too far. Details of the case are still emerging, but Musk’s failure to disclose his more than 5% stake in Twitter arguably hurt investors who sold shares after he crossed that ownership threshold. Instead, Musk kept purchasing shares until reaching a 9% stake in Twitter before disclosing his position. The initial class-action lawsuit and the potential for more have finally gotten the attention of investors, if not regulators.The poor reception Twitter’s employees gave the news of Musk’s stake is a very public rejection of his super-star influencer status and provide the first tangible evidence that maybe his star power has limitations. If a hostile takeover prompts a mass exodus of talent, then Musk might end up destroying the company in the process of buying it. That being said, the loudest voices in the company are not necessarily the most valuable.As more people join lawsuits against Musk, and Twitter employees continue to express their mistrust of the company’s largest shareholder, institutional investors may seize this moment to quietly unload their shares of overvalued Tesla stock. Now is the time to sell because the price of the stock to this point has been more a reflection of Musk’s ability to draw an audience than any underlying fundamental value in the company.Live by the Stunt, Die by the StuntUltimately, it appears that as much as Twitter was the launch pad for Musk’s super influence powers, his failure thus far to win the publicity battle could mark the beginning-of-the-end of his super-star status.Musk’s Twitter play, which is another in a long series of distractions, could end poorly for Musk. Instead of addressing Tesla’s issues, Musk appears to be attempting to position himself as a defender of free speech. The risk he faces is that instead of looking like a hero he looks more like a bully running an ego-driven takeover with little regard for the rules. While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable (more on this below), a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.Tesla’s investors have not been impressed with Musk’s Twitter antics either, as the stock is down 11% since he announced his ownership in the social media giant. Likewise, the “Musk bump” in Twitter shares is likely to fade as investors realize the only value Musk brought was publicity, and not good publicity either. Although Twitter remains a popular platform, it has its own problems and suggestions such as removing a letter from its name can do more harm than good.Why Haven’t Regulators Done Anything Before Now?Tesla’s high stock price has, thus far, kept its CEO well beyond an arm’s length of regulators. Other executives in other times likely would have faced consequences for many of the things Musk has said and done. Today, Tesla’s high stock price indicates investors’ collective belief in Musk’s promises and protects Musk. Regulators don’t want to be accused of causing the company’s stock price to fall, thereby destroying the wealth of many investors and, as a result, footing the cost of defending against numerous shareholder lawsuits.Furthermore, Musk can claim Tesla’s elevated stock price and the wealth it endows is what he needs to fulfill his outlandish promises over time. However, should Tesla’s stock price ever reflect realistic expectations for the company, authorities may feel emboldened to pursue legal or regulatory action against Musk and/or Tesla. Credible claims can be made for several offenses, including:stock and cryptocurrency manipulationfalse advertising of Full Self Driving (FSD)ignoring safety authoritiesneglecting to file documentation on time related to his purchase of Twitter’s sharesand other claims of dubious veracityWhat Will Regulators Do When the Bubble Pops?Musk has positioned himself as a pop-culture icon. Though society loves to build up celebrities, so too does it love tearing them down even more. Once Tesla’s stock price falls from its overly inflated levels, Musk will lose his cover that has protected him from all his unethical and arguably illegal behavior. Regulators are likely to come after Musk with knives out after all the humiliation they had to suffer at his hand.Trouble on the HorizonAll the hype around Musk’s large stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead for Tesla. Of course, that is likely his goal. Below we discuss the fundamentals of Tesla’s business, which cannot be wished away or made irrelevant with hype.Incumbents Are Catching Up: Tesla’s first-mover advantage has long been cited as reason enough for investors to pile their money into the company. However, that advantage is gone, and in some cases turning into a lag. Ford (F), Rivian (RIVN), and General Motors (GM) aim to produce EV trucks in 2022, but Tesla will be on the sidelines until at least 2023 before launching its Cybertruck.The rising competition from incumbents means the days of Tesla’s rising profitability could be numbered. For starters, 26% of the company’s GAAP earnings in 2021 were from the sale of regulatory credits, not from the underlying economics of making and selling vehicles and other ancillary services.Once incumbents increase production of EVs they will need to purchase fewer credits from Elon. That means Tesla needs to actually start selling carsto make money. The catch-22 is that for the company to sell more cars, it first needs to increase its production capacity. If Tesla’s succeeds in selling more cars capital expenditure and working capital are primed to grow along with sales. Tesla needs to build economies of scale before it can benefit from them.Market Share Losses Continue: Incumbent automakers have entered the EV market with scale and are already taking market share from Tesla. Per Figure 2, Tesla’s share of global EV sales fell from 16% in 2019 to 14% in 2021.Tesla’s share of the U.S. EV market fell from 79% in2020to 70% in2021. With light truck sales comprising more than three out of every four vehicles sold in the U.S. in January 2022, Tesla falling behind in truck EVs means its share of the U.S. market could fall further.Figure 2: Tesla’s Share of the Global EV SalesTSLA Market Share Since 2019(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC, EV-volumes.com and StatistaSlow Start to 2022:Though Teslaforecastedan at least 50% YoY rise in deliveries in 2022, the company is feeling the effects of supply chain problems – just like every other automaker. The company delivered 310,000 vehicles in the quarter, while consensus estimates were for 313,000.Reverse DCF Math: Valuation Implies Tesla Will Own at Least 57% of the Global Passenger EV MarketDespite the increased competition, failure to meet delivery expectations, and diminutive share of the global EV market in 2021, Tesla’s valuation implies the company will own 57% of the global passenger EV market in 2030.Even if Tesla increases the average selling price (ASP) per vehicle to $55K vs. ($49K in 2021), Tesla’s stock price at ~$1,100/share implies the firm will sell 15 million vehicles in 2030 versus ~936k in 2021. That figure represents 57% of the projected base case global EV passenger vehicle market in 2030 and the implied vehicle sales based on a lower ASP looks even more unrealistic.To provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations reflected in Tesla’s stock price, we assume Tesla achieves profit margins 1.5x Toyota Motor Corp (TM) and triples its current auto manufacturing efficiency.Per Figure 3, an $1,100/share price implies that, in 2030, Tesla will sell the following number of vehicles based on these ASP benchmarks:15 million vehicles – ASP of $55K (above average U.S. new car price of $47K in 2021)7 million vehicles – ASP of $49K (equal to Tesla’s 2021 ASP[1])21 million vehicles – ASP of $38K (equal to General Motors’ ASP[2] of $38K in 2021)If Tesla achieves those EV sales, the implied market share for the company would be the following (assuming global passenger EV sales reach 26 million in 2030, the base case projection from the IEA):57% for 15 million vehicles64% for 17 million vehicles83% for 21 million vehiclesIf we assume the IEA’s best case for global passenger EV sales in 2030, 47 million vehicles, the above vehicle sales represent:31% for 15 million vehicles35% for 17 million vehicles45% for 21 million vehiclesFigure 3: Tesla’s Implied Vehicle Sales in 2030 to Justify $1,100/ShareTSLA DCF Implied Vehicle Production(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filingsTesla Must Generate More Profits Than Apple For Investors to Make MoneyBelow are the assumptions we use in our reverse discounted cash flow model to calculate the implied production levels above.Bulls should understand what Tesla needs to accomplish to justify ~$1,100/share:immediately achieve a 14% NOPAT margin (1.5x Toyota’s margin, which is the highest of the large-scale automakers we cover), compared to Tesla’s TTM margin of 8%) andgrow revenue by 32% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.In this scenario, Tesla generates $811 billion in revenue in 2030, which is 116% of the combined revenues of Toyota, Stellantis (STLA), Ford, General Motors, and Honda (HMC) over the past twelve months. Tesla must replace the U.S. auto industry before 2030 to justify current valuations.This scenario also implies Tesla grows net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) by 2,458% from 2021 to 2030. In this scenario, Tesla generates $112 billion in NOPAT in 2030, or 12% higher than Apple’s (AAPL) TTM NOPAT, which, at $100 billion, is the highest of all companies we cover, and 65% higher than Microsoft (MSFT), the second-highest. Those companies have intertwined themselves in the lives of consumers and businesses around the world, which seems an unlikely feat for Tesla at this point.TSLA Has 46% Downside If Morgan Stanley Is Right About SalesIf we assume Tesla reaches Morgan Stanley’s estimate of selling 8.1 million cars in 2030 (which implies a 31% share of the global passenger EV market in 2030), at an ASP of $55k, the stock is worth just $542/share. Details:NOPAT margin improves to 14% andrevenue grows 27% compounded annually over the next decade, thenthe stock is worth just $547/share today – a 46% downside to the current price. See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario. In this scenario, Tesla grows NOPAT to $62 billion, or nearly 14x its 2021 NOPAT, and just 7% below Alphabet’s (GOOGL) 2021 NOPAT.TSLA Has 80%+ Downside Even with 27% Market Share and Realistic MarginsIf we estimate more reasonable (but still very optimistic) margins and market share achievements for Tesla, the stock is worth just $200/share. Here’s the math:NOPAT margin improves to 9% (equal to Toyota’s TTM margin) andrevenue grows by consensus estimates from 2022 to 2024 andrevenue grows 17% a year from 2025 to 2030, thenthe stock is worth just $200/share today – an 80% downside to the current price.In this scenario, Tesla sells 7 million cars (27% of the global passenger EV market in 2030) at an ASP of $47K (average new car price in U.S. in 2021) and grows NOPAT by 24% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.We also assume a more realistic NOPAT margin of 9% in this scenario, which is 1.3x higher than Toyota’s industry-leading five-year average NOPAT margin of 7%. Given the required capital requirements to fund manufacturing and match increased competition in the EV market, Tesla is unlikely to achieve and sustain a margin as high as 9% from 2022 to 2030. If Tesla fails to meet these expectations, then the stock is worth less than $200/share.Figure 4 compares the firm’s historical NOPAT to the NOPAT implied in the above scenarios to illustrate just how high the expectations baked into Tesla’s stock price remain. For additional context, we show Toyota’s, General Motors’, and Apple’s TTM NOPAT.Figure 4: Tesla’s Historical and Implied NOPAT: DCF Valuation ScenariosTSLA DCF Implied NOPAT(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filingsEach of the above scenarios assumes Tesla’s invested capital grows 14% compounded annually through 2030. For reference, Tesla’s invested capital grew 49% compounded annually from 2011 to 2021 and 30% compounded annually since 2015.An invested capital CAGR of 14% represents 1/3rdthe CAGR of Tesla’s property, plant, and equipment since 2011 and assumes the company can build future plants and produce cars 3x more efficiently than it has so far.In other words, we aim to provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations for future market share and profits reflected in Tesla’s stock market valuation.Tesla Won’t Be the Only One to FallOther meme stocks have taken pages from the Musk playbook and will likely suffer the same fate we expect Tesla to suffer once the game is up. GameStop (GME) promised to transform itself into an ecommerce powerhouse, yet the company continues to head in the opposite direction and earnings continue to disappoint. GameStop’s Core Earnings fell from -$200 million in fiscal 2021 to -$321 million in fiscal 2022.Despite the company’s inability to quickly execute operational change, GameStop’s stock has remained well above a reasonable valuation thanks in part to announcing the launch of a marketplace for nonfungible tokens (NFTs) and partnerships with blockchain firms.AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) has also run several Tesla-esque plays to prop up its stock. Indeed, the company’s CEO recently tweeted that the company is “playing on offense again” with its investment in a microcap gold mine. Before gold mines, the company got on the crypto bandwagon in 2021 by accepting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Litecoin.Beyond the repeated attempts at propping up their stocks, the fundamentally weak business models of Tesla, GameStop, and AMC Entertainment in highly competitive industries burn cash and continue to dilute shareholders whenever possible. Per Figure 5, despite combining for more than $1.1 trillion of market cap, Tesla, AMC Entertainment, and GameStop have a combined economic book value, our measure of the no growth value of a stock, of -$52 billion and -$4.3 billion of free cash flow over the past twelve months.Figure 5: Meme Stock’s Market Cap, Economic Book Value & FCF: TTMMeme Stocks Market Cap, Economic Book Value, FCF(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filingsThis article originally published on April 14, 2022.Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, and Matt Shuler receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector, style, or theme.[1] Tesla’s ASP = (total automotive revenues – regulatory credits) / deliveries[2] General Motors’ ASP = Vehicle, parts and accessories / wholesale vehicle sales","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3562670436095987","authorId":"3562670436095987","name":"hakunaurtata","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5631ba6526d1730e263ae54c0eab70e9","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3562670436095987","idStr":"3562670436095987"},"content":"some of seekingalpha's articles are becoming more negative on Tesla, really makes one think if there's any insidious intent behind their articles...","text":"some of seekingalpha's articles are becoming more negative on Tesla, really makes one think if there's any insidious intent behind their articles...","html":"some of seekingalpha's articles are becoming more negative on Tesla, really makes one think if there's any insidious intent behind their articles..."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9013515267,"gmtCreate":1648748077591,"gmtModify":1676534390510,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"They probably sold two days ago, then pump out this news, prepare to scoop it at a great price, pump it again by upgrading it, rinse and repeat.","listText":"They probably sold two days ago, then pump out this news, prepare to scoop it at a great price, pump it again by upgrading it, rinse and repeat.","text":"They probably sold two days ago, then pump out this news, prepare to scoop it at a great price, pump it again by upgrading it, rinse and repeat.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9013515267","repostId":"1182345846","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038850612,"gmtCreate":1646794099739,"gmtModify":1676534163377,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"As a consumer, I hate ads. As a shareholder, I love ads.😅😂","listText":"As a consumer, I hate ads. As a shareholder, I love ads.😅😂","text":"As a consumer, I hate ads. As a shareholder, I love ads.😅😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038850612","repostId":"2218405959","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":883,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3582520228861009","authorId":"3582520228861009","name":"CPCat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bafaf3d39abfb78a4bedf785310721a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3582520228861009","idStr":"3582520228861009"},"content":"well said. such dilemma! lol","text":"well said. such dilemma! lol","html":"well said. such dilemma! lol"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9033753519,"gmtCreate":1646363193707,"gmtModify":1676534122746,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What happens if they report a rebound on govt sector the next ER? 🤔","listText":"What happens if they report a rebound on govt sector the next ER? 🤔","text":"What happens if they report a rebound on govt sector the next ER? 🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033753519","repostId":"1179022083","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":803,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039108415,"gmtCreate":1645937199284,"gmtModify":1676534076518,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Luxury is an interesting area to look out for.","listText":"Luxury is an interesting area to look out for.","text":"Luxury is an interesting area to look out for.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039108415","repostId":"1132842343","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132842343","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1645790924,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1132842343?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-25 20:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Farfetch Soared 30% After EPS Beat, Strong Guidance","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132842343","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Farfetch  soared 30% in early trading on Friday after the company posted a smaller-than-anticipated ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FTCH\">Farfetch </a> soared 30% in early trading on Friday after the company posted a smaller-than-anticipated Q4 loss.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da05ac829e06cf1c16ef5b2c97528995\" tg-width=\"875\" tg-height=\"643\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>The online luxury player&#39;s guidance for FY22 gross merchandise value and profitability also came in higher than expected.</p><p>&#34;Notably, FTCH&#39;s ability to pass through higher shipping/cost inflation to consumers and its brand/boutique partners illustrates its value proposition in the luxury ecosystem,&#34; updated Morgan Stanley analyst Lauren Schenk on the report.</p><p>Schenk said that FTCH remains in the early innings of what Morgan Stanley believe is a winner-take most marketplace model and disruptive tech enabler for the luxury industry.</p><p>Morgan Stanley kept an Overweight rating on FTCH and price target of $67.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Farfetch Soared 30% After EPS Beat, Strong Guidance</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFarfetch Soared 30% After EPS Beat, Strong Guidance\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-02-25 20:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FTCH\">Farfetch </a> soared 30% in early trading on Friday after the company posted a smaller-than-anticipated Q4 loss.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da05ac829e06cf1c16ef5b2c97528995\" tg-width=\"875\" tg-height=\"643\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>The online luxury player&#39;s guidance for FY22 gross merchandise value and profitability also came in higher than expected.</p><p>&#34;Notably, FTCH&#39;s ability to pass through higher shipping/cost inflation to consumers and its brand/boutique partners illustrates its value proposition in the luxury ecosystem,&#34; updated Morgan Stanley analyst Lauren Schenk on the report.</p><p>Schenk said that FTCH remains in the early innings of what Morgan Stanley believe is a winner-take most marketplace model and disruptive tech enabler for the luxury industry.</p><p>Morgan Stanley kept an Overweight rating on FTCH and price target of $67.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132842343","content_text":"Farfetch  soared 30% in early trading on Friday after the company posted a smaller-than-anticipated Q4 loss.The online luxury player's guidance for FY22 gross merchandise value and profitability also came in higher than expected.\"Notably, FTCH's ability to pass through higher shipping/cost inflation to consumers and its brand/boutique partners illustrates its value proposition in the luxury ecosystem,\" updated Morgan Stanley analyst Lauren Schenk on the report.Schenk said that FTCH remains in the early innings of what Morgan Stanley believe is a winner-take most marketplace model and disruptive tech enabler for the luxury industry.Morgan Stanley kept an Overweight rating on FTCH and price target of $67.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094592418,"gmtCreate":1645173530834,"gmtModify":1676534005787,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This is probably going to be spammed all over by main stream media. Ok 👌","listText":"This is probably going to be spammed all over by main stream media. Ok 👌","text":"This is probably going to be spammed all over by main stream media. Ok 👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094592418","repostId":"1101819811","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094592223,"gmtCreate":1645173457446,"gmtModify":1676534005785,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow this report. Lol. ok","listText":"Wow this report. Lol. ok","text":"Wow this report. Lol. ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094592223","repostId":"1158618125","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":718,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094169696,"gmtCreate":1645084502757,"gmtModify":1676533995576,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I wonder if RBLX will get accquired..","listText":"I wonder if RBLX will get accquired..","text":"I wonder if RBLX will get accquired..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094169696","repostId":"1176942458","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":710,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9096216208,"gmtCreate":1644397162287,"gmtModify":1676533921009,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not sure. We shall see on earnings.","listText":"Not sure. We shall see on earnings.","text":"Not sure. We shall see on earnings.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9096216208","repostId":"1109661151","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9096343125,"gmtCreate":1644316046012,"gmtModify":1676533911580,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I admire his skills and knowledge but not sure if this public acknowledgemrnt of a political party will any good to pltr...","listText":"I admire his skills and knowledge but not sure if this public acknowledgemrnt of a political party will any good to pltr...","text":"I admire his skills and knowledge but not sure if this public acknowledgemrnt of a political party will any good to pltr...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9096343125","repostId":"2209370346","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9091513809,"gmtCreate":1643898317262,"gmtModify":1676533868980,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is metaverse really just a hype? Personally I think how gaming is going to develop down the road can provide an insight to this.","listText":"Is metaverse really just a hype? Personally I think how gaming is going to develop down the road can provide an insight to this.","text":"Is metaverse really just a hype? Personally I think how gaming is going to develop down the road can provide an insight to this.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9091513809","repostId":"1133568920","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":801,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9099933871,"gmtCreate":1643288027822,"gmtModify":1676533796911,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤦‍♀️ not at the stock, but at the article.","listText":"🤦‍♀️ not at the stock, but at the article.","text":"🤦‍♀️ not at the stock, but at the article.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9099933871","repostId":"1161387468","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9090289088,"gmtCreate":1643196340144,"gmtModify":1676533784009,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"16 Mar then.","listText":"16 Mar then.","text":"16 Mar then.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090289088","repostId":"1107872846","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107872846","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1643190439,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1107872846?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-26 17:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"FOMC Preview：Fed Not Expected to Raise Interest Rates This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107872846","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"All eyes are currently on the Fed, which is releasing its monetary policy decision Wednesday. Market","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>All eyes are currently on the Fed, which is releasing its monetary policy decision Wednesday. Markets are anticipating several interest rate increases this year, but will be hanging on the words of Fed Chair Jerome Powell to see just how many.</p><p>The FOMC decision is due at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.</p><p><b>Anticipation:</b></p><p>Anticipation over a pullback in Federal Reserve stimulus has markets rolling, setting the stage for what could be a pivotal central bank policy-setting meeting this week.</p><p>Although the Fed has signaled it will very likely raise rates multiple times this year, the first post-COVID rate increase is not expected this week. Instead, the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee will likely tease higher rates coming in its March meeting.</p><p>“It really is time for us to begin to move away from those emergency pandemic settings to a more normal level,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress two weeks ago, adding that “2022 will be the year in which we take steps toward normalization.”</p><p>Moving away from those settings would involve raising the federal funds rate, the benchmark for short-term borrowing costs that the Federal Open Market Committee sets every six weeks. That rate has been set at near zero since the depths of the pandemic.</p><p>Raising those rates, also referred to as “tightening policy,” could dampen the rapid pace of inflation felt by Americans across the board.</p><p>“March is a live meeting for the first rate hike,” said Fed Governor Christopher Waller in December.</p><p>Directionally, nearly all members of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee have suggested they favor using higher rates to bring inflation down (even the more “dovish” officials who have historically pushed back against tighter policy options). But there is considerable uncertainty about how aggressively they would do so.</p><p>For example, betting markets show the largest probability — about 31% — for four interest rate increases (25 basis points each) by the end of this year. But those same markets are pricing in decent odds of the Fed tightening a little bit slower (three rate hikes: 26% chance) as they are for the Fed tightening a little bit faster (five rate hikes: 20% chance).</p><p>Either way, the Fed is making it clear that come the March meeting, FOMC decision days that follow are all fair game for more tightening.</p><p><b>Market Views:</b></p><p>“We see a risk that the FOMC will want to take some tightening action at every meeting until that picture changes,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote on Friday.</p><p>With prices rising at a pace not seen in nearly 40 years, the Fed may have opted to raise rates this week if it were not for one reason: its $9 trillion balance sheet.</p><p>The Fed is still in the process of bringing its pandemic-era policy of growing its massive balance sheet to a full stop. In December, the FOMC charted a course for ending its purchases of U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities (aimed at messaging to markets its intention to keep borrowing costs low) by mid-March.</p><p>Raising interest rates while the Fed is still buying bonds could send mixed messages to markets, which is why Fed officials have made it clear they would not raise interest rates until that process is done.</p><p>As the Fed raises interest rates, the FOMC will then likely turn its attention to actively shrinking its balance sheet — by allowing maturing securities to roll off of its books.</p><p>“We probably will decide to start reducing the balance sheet sooner rather than later,” Chicago Fed President Charles Evans told reporters on Jan. 13.</p><p>Doing so could allow the Fed to quell inflation with fewer rate hikes, since shrinking its asset holdings should have the effect of tilting higher longer-term interest rates (which it does not directly control as well as short-term rates).</p><p>The conversation over how to handle any balance sheet runoff will likely pick up steam in this week’s meeting.</p><p><b>Market Snapshot</b></p><p>At 04:46 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 364 points, or 1.06%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 60.75 points, or 1.40%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 294.50 points, or 2.08%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6daf636636fcead334fc0cd35746e9a2\" tg-width=\"372\" tg-height=\"159\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>FOMC Preview：Fed Not Expected to Raise Interest Rates This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFOMC Preview：Fed Not Expected to Raise Interest Rates This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-26 17:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>All eyes are currently on the Fed, which is releasing its monetary policy decision Wednesday. Markets are anticipating several interest rate increases this year, but will be hanging on the words of Fed Chair Jerome Powell to see just how many.</p><p>The FOMC decision is due at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.</p><p><b>Anticipation:</b></p><p>Anticipation over a pullback in Federal Reserve stimulus has markets rolling, setting the stage for what could be a pivotal central bank policy-setting meeting this week.</p><p>Although the Fed has signaled it will very likely raise rates multiple times this year, the first post-COVID rate increase is not expected this week. Instead, the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee will likely tease higher rates coming in its March meeting.</p><p>“It really is time for us to begin to move away from those emergency pandemic settings to a more normal level,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress two weeks ago, adding that “2022 will be the year in which we take steps toward normalization.”</p><p>Moving away from those settings would involve raising the federal funds rate, the benchmark for short-term borrowing costs that the Federal Open Market Committee sets every six weeks. That rate has been set at near zero since the depths of the pandemic.</p><p>Raising those rates, also referred to as “tightening policy,” could dampen the rapid pace of inflation felt by Americans across the board.</p><p>“March is a live meeting for the first rate hike,” said Fed Governor Christopher Waller in December.</p><p>Directionally, nearly all members of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee have suggested they favor using higher rates to bring inflation down (even the more “dovish” officials who have historically pushed back against tighter policy options). But there is considerable uncertainty about how aggressively they would do so.</p><p>For example, betting markets show the largest probability — about 31% — for four interest rate increases (25 basis points each) by the end of this year. But those same markets are pricing in decent odds of the Fed tightening a little bit slower (three rate hikes: 26% chance) as they are for the Fed tightening a little bit faster (five rate hikes: 20% chance).</p><p>Either way, the Fed is making it clear that come the March meeting, FOMC decision days that follow are all fair game for more tightening.</p><p><b>Market Views:</b></p><p>“We see a risk that the FOMC will want to take some tightening action at every meeting until that picture changes,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote on Friday.</p><p>With prices rising at a pace not seen in nearly 40 years, the Fed may have opted to raise rates this week if it were not for one reason: its $9 trillion balance sheet.</p><p>The Fed is still in the process of bringing its pandemic-era policy of growing its massive balance sheet to a full stop. In December, the FOMC charted a course for ending its purchases of U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities (aimed at messaging to markets its intention to keep borrowing costs low) by mid-March.</p><p>Raising interest rates while the Fed is still buying bonds could send mixed messages to markets, which is why Fed officials have made it clear they would not raise interest rates until that process is done.</p><p>As the Fed raises interest rates, the FOMC will then likely turn its attention to actively shrinking its balance sheet — by allowing maturing securities to roll off of its books.</p><p>“We probably will decide to start reducing the balance sheet sooner rather than later,” Chicago Fed President Charles Evans told reporters on Jan. 13.</p><p>Doing so could allow the Fed to quell inflation with fewer rate hikes, since shrinking its asset holdings should have the effect of tilting higher longer-term interest rates (which it does not directly control as well as short-term rates).</p><p>The conversation over how to handle any balance sheet runoff will likely pick up steam in this week’s meeting.</p><p><b>Market Snapshot</b></p><p>At 04:46 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 364 points, or 1.06%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 60.75 points, or 1.40%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 294.50 points, or 2.08%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6daf636636fcead334fc0cd35746e9a2\" tg-width=\"372\" tg-height=\"159\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107872846","content_text":"All eyes are currently on the Fed, which is releasing its monetary policy decision Wednesday. Markets are anticipating several interest rate increases this year, but will be hanging on the words of Fed Chair Jerome Powell to see just how many.The FOMC decision is due at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.Anticipation:Anticipation over a pullback in Federal Reserve stimulus has markets rolling, setting the stage for what could be a pivotal central bank policy-setting meeting this week.Although the Fed has signaled it will very likely raise rates multiple times this year, the first post-COVID rate increase is not expected this week. Instead, the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee will likely tease higher rates coming in its March meeting.“It really is time for us to begin to move away from those emergency pandemic settings to a more normal level,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress two weeks ago, adding that “2022 will be the year in which we take steps toward normalization.”Moving away from those settings would involve raising the federal funds rate, the benchmark for short-term borrowing costs that the Federal Open Market Committee sets every six weeks. That rate has been set at near zero since the depths of the pandemic.Raising those rates, also referred to as “tightening policy,” could dampen the rapid pace of inflation felt by Americans across the board.“March is a live meeting for the first rate hike,” said Fed Governor Christopher Waller in December.Directionally, nearly all members of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee have suggested they favor using higher rates to bring inflation down (even the more “dovish” officials who have historically pushed back against tighter policy options). But there is considerable uncertainty about how aggressively they would do so.For example, betting markets show the largest probability — about 31% — for four interest rate increases (25 basis points each) by the end of this year. But those same markets are pricing in decent odds of the Fed tightening a little bit slower (three rate hikes: 26% chance) as they are for the Fed tightening a little bit faster (five rate hikes: 20% chance).Either way, the Fed is making it clear that come the March meeting, FOMC decision days that follow are all fair game for more tightening.Market Views:“We see a risk that the FOMC will want to take some tightening action at every meeting until that picture changes,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote on Friday.With prices rising at a pace not seen in nearly 40 years, the Fed may have opted to raise rates this week if it were not for one reason: its $9 trillion balance sheet.The Fed is still in the process of bringing its pandemic-era policy of growing its massive balance sheet to a full stop. In December, the FOMC charted a course for ending its purchases of U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities (aimed at messaging to markets its intention to keep borrowing costs low) by mid-March.Raising interest rates while the Fed is still buying bonds could send mixed messages to markets, which is why Fed officials have made it clear they would not raise interest rates until that process is done.As the Fed raises interest rates, the FOMC will then likely turn its attention to actively shrinking its balance sheet — by allowing maturing securities to roll off of its books.“We probably will decide to start reducing the balance sheet sooner rather than later,” Chicago Fed President Charles Evans told reporters on Jan. 13.Doing so could allow the Fed to quell inflation with fewer rate hikes, since shrinking its asset holdings should have the effect of tilting higher longer-term interest rates (which it does not directly control as well as short-term rates).The conversation over how to handle any balance sheet runoff will likely pick up steam in this week’s meeting.Market SnapshotAt 04:46 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 364 points, or 1.06%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 60.75 points, or 1.40%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 294.50 points, or 2.08%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9090360416,"gmtCreate":1643084819984,"gmtModify":1676533772812,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Amazing that he didn't exploit further. Gain respect for him and hope Tesla would reward him.","listText":"Amazing that he didn't exploit further. Gain respect for him and hope Tesla would reward him.","text":"Amazing that he didn't exploit further. Gain respect for him and hope Tesla would reward him.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090360416","repostId":"2206157889","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":810128344,"gmtCreate":1629954174288,"gmtModify":1676530183165,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Both have their valid points. Personally would think Burry is right in near term, and Cathie is right in far term. The&nbsp;critical thing is whether these innovation-based businesses can live up to their names and survive over time.","listText":"Both have their valid points. Personally would think Burry is right in near term, and Cathie is right in far term. The&nbsp;critical thing is whether these innovation-based businesses can live up to their names and survive over time.","text":"Both have their valid points. Personally would think Burry is right in near term, and Cathie is right in far term. The critical thing is whether these innovation-based businesses can live up to their names and survive over time.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/810128344","repostId":"1101434650","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":35,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3577198376590284","authorId":"3577198376590284","name":"JasonChang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/739faf02f16c64fb9a9f48fee98b5cd2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3577198376590284","idStr":"3577198376590284"},"content":"I agree, in the end, dont blindly follow one person and take all POVs with a grain of salt","text":"I agree, in the end, dont blindly follow one person and take all POVs with a grain of salt","html":"I agree, in the end, dont blindly follow one person and take all POVs with a grain of salt"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809572559,"gmtCreate":1627383438571,"gmtModify":1703488823800,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple is in a good position for the 5g rollout.","listText":"Apple is in a good position for the 5g rollout.","text":"Apple is in a good position for the 5g rollout.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809572559","repostId":"1108884592","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108884592","pubTimestamp":1627292048,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1108884592?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-26 17:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Reports Earnings Tuesday. Why the Market May Already Be Looking Past Them.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108884592","media":"Barrons","summary":"Apple shares recently surged to new all-time highs, amid heightened investor anticipation of June-qu","content":"<p>Apple shares recently surged to new all-time highs, amid heightened investor anticipation of June-quarter earnings, due after the closing bell on Tuesday. But it’s the launch of the next generation of iPhones, expected to be unveiled in September, that might be the real difference-maker.</p>\n<p>Apple’s recent rally has not erased concerns about the stock. Growing regulatory scrutiny of Big Tech generally and Apple (ticker: AAPL) in particular, with a specific focus on the fees Apple charges developers who distribute applications on&nbsp;the company’s App Store&nbsp;for iPhones, iPads, and Macs, is the obvious one. There are also worries about tough year-over-year comparisons, and some investors fear that the recently robust growth in Mac and iPads sales will slow as the economy returns to more normal conditions. Others are nervous that the next set of iPhones will provide only incremental improvements, and that demand could disappoint.</p>\n<p>But no one seems to be too worried about the earning themselves. The Wall Street consensus for the fiscal third quarter is for $72.9 billion in revenue and profits of $1 a share. Even analysts who are cautious about the stock think those numbers are too low. For instance, BofA Global Research analyst Wamsi Mohan is projecting revenue of $77 billion, with profits of $1.05 a share, driven by strength across the company’s hardware portfolio. Mohan still has a Neutral rating and $160 price target on the stock, however, and cautions that the company faces tough comparisons in the quarters ahead given spikes in Mac and iPad sales during the pandemic.</p>\n<p>He’s got a point.In the March quarter, Apple’s sales surged 54%, driven by strong growth across the portfolio, with sales increases of 66% for iPhone, 70% for Macs, 79% for iPads, 25% for wearables, and 27% for Services. Street consensus estimates for the June quarter call for $34.2 billion in iPhone sales, $7.2 billion for iPads, $7.9 billion for Macs, $7.8 billion for wearables, home, and accessories, and $16.3 billion for services.</p>\n<p>The company did not provide detailed guidance for the quarter, but cautioned that sales could be reduced by as much as $4 billion due to a tight supply of Macs and iPads tied to component shortages.</p>\n<p>Still,Wedbush analyst Dan Ives&nbsp;thinks Apple is headed for another across-the-board beat, driven by continued strong demand for iPhone 12, with particularly strong demand in China. “While the chip shortage was an overhang for Apple during the quarter, we believe the iPhone and Services strength in the quarter neutralized any short-term weakness that the Street was anticipating three months ago,” Ives writes. The analyst says Apple remains his favorite large-cap tech pick, with a “1-2 punch” of services and iPhone demand. He thinks the company can reach the $3 trillion market capitalization level in 2022, from just under $2.5 trillion now. Ives keeps his Outperform rating and $185 target price.</p>\n<p>Canaccord analyst T. Michael Walkley&nbsp;also reupped his Buy rating on Apple shares, while boosting his target price to $175, from $165. He likewise expects June quarter results to beat Street estimates. One interesting question is whether Apple will return to providing quarterly guidance, a practice the company suspended during the pandemic. If they do, Walkley says, expect the forecast to outstrip current Street projections.</p>\n<p>“Apple is well-positioned to continue to benefit from the 5G upgrade cycle, and we anticipate strong overall growth trends as 5G smartphones ramp and its installed base expands with higher-margins services revenue,” he writes. “Apple’s ecosystem approach, including an installed base that exceeds 1.65 billion devices globally and now over 1 billion iPhone users, should continue to generate strong services revenue.”</p>\n<p>But the big news might still be yet to come. Once the company navigates past earnings, Apple investors will zero in on the fall iPhone launch. (Let’s call it iPhone 13, although Apple hasn’t specifically named the new line.) Ives sees incremental improvements, including Lidar capability in all phones, which will improve their utility for augmented reality applications. More important is his observation that about 250 million of the installed base of nearly 1 billion iPhones are at least 3.5 years old and due for an upgrade.</p>\n<p>As Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty has noted, Apple shares tend to outperform the market heading into the launch of new phones. There’s no reason to think this year will be any different. Expect a strong June quarter from Apple, with higher highs likely as we approach the fall.</p>\n<p>We can reassess after that.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Reports Earnings Tuesday. Why the Market May Already Be Looking Past Them.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Reports Earnings Tuesday. Why the Market May Already Be Looking Past Them.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-26 17:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-reports-earnings-tuesday-why-the-market-may-already-be-looking-past-them-51627260627?mod=RTA><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple shares recently surged to new all-time highs, amid heightened investor anticipation of June-quarter earnings, due after the closing bell on Tuesday. But it’s the launch of the next generation of...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-reports-earnings-tuesday-why-the-market-may-already-be-looking-past-them-51627260627?mod=RTA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-reports-earnings-tuesday-why-the-market-may-already-be-looking-past-them-51627260627?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108884592","content_text":"Apple shares recently surged to new all-time highs, amid heightened investor anticipation of June-quarter earnings, due after the closing bell on Tuesday. But it’s the launch of the next generation of iPhones, expected to be unveiled in September, that might be the real difference-maker.\nApple’s recent rally has not erased concerns about the stock. Growing regulatory scrutiny of Big Tech generally and Apple (ticker: AAPL) in particular, with a specific focus on the fees Apple charges developers who distribute applications on the company’s App Store for iPhones, iPads, and Macs, is the obvious one. There are also worries about tough year-over-year comparisons, and some investors fear that the recently robust growth in Mac and iPads sales will slow as the economy returns to more normal conditions. Others are nervous that the next set of iPhones will provide only incremental improvements, and that demand could disappoint.\nBut no one seems to be too worried about the earning themselves. The Wall Street consensus for the fiscal third quarter is for $72.9 billion in revenue and profits of $1 a share. Even analysts who are cautious about the stock think those numbers are too low. For instance, BofA Global Research analyst Wamsi Mohan is projecting revenue of $77 billion, with profits of $1.05 a share, driven by strength across the company’s hardware portfolio. Mohan still has a Neutral rating and $160 price target on the stock, however, and cautions that the company faces tough comparisons in the quarters ahead given spikes in Mac and iPad sales during the pandemic.\nHe’s got a point.In the March quarter, Apple’s sales surged 54%, driven by strong growth across the portfolio, with sales increases of 66% for iPhone, 70% for Macs, 79% for iPads, 25% for wearables, and 27% for Services. Street consensus estimates for the June quarter call for $34.2 billion in iPhone sales, $7.2 billion for iPads, $7.9 billion for Macs, $7.8 billion for wearables, home, and accessories, and $16.3 billion for services.\nThe company did not provide detailed guidance for the quarter, but cautioned that sales could be reduced by as much as $4 billion due to a tight supply of Macs and iPads tied to component shortages.\nStill,Wedbush analyst Dan Ives thinks Apple is headed for another across-the-board beat, driven by continued strong demand for iPhone 12, with particularly strong demand in China. “While the chip shortage was an overhang for Apple during the quarter, we believe the iPhone and Services strength in the quarter neutralized any short-term weakness that the Street was anticipating three months ago,” Ives writes. The analyst says Apple remains his favorite large-cap tech pick, with a “1-2 punch” of services and iPhone demand. He thinks the company can reach the $3 trillion market capitalization level in 2022, from just under $2.5 trillion now. Ives keeps his Outperform rating and $185 target price.\nCanaccord analyst T. Michael Walkley also reupped his Buy rating on Apple shares, while boosting his target price to $175, from $165. He likewise expects June quarter results to beat Street estimates. One interesting question is whether Apple will return to providing quarterly guidance, a practice the company suspended during the pandemic. If they do, Walkley says, expect the forecast to outstrip current Street projections.\n“Apple is well-positioned to continue to benefit from the 5G upgrade cycle, and we anticipate strong overall growth trends as 5G smartphones ramp and its installed base expands with higher-margins services revenue,” he writes. “Apple’s ecosystem approach, including an installed base that exceeds 1.65 billion devices globally and now over 1 billion iPhone users, should continue to generate strong services revenue.”\nBut the big news might still be yet to come. Once the company navigates past earnings, Apple investors will zero in on the fall iPhone launch. (Let’s call it iPhone 13, although Apple hasn’t specifically named the new line.) Ives sees incremental improvements, including Lidar capability in all phones, which will improve their utility for augmented reality applications. More important is his observation that about 250 million of the installed base of nearly 1 billion iPhones are at least 3.5 years old and due for an upgrade.\nAs Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty has noted, Apple shares tend to outperform the market heading into the launch of new phones. There’s no reason to think this year will be any different. Expect a strong June quarter from Apple, with higher highs likely as we approach the fall.\nWe can reassess after that.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125582527,"gmtCreate":1624680406269,"gmtModify":1703843519086,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"NVDA will be a great stock to own down the road","listText":"NVDA will be a great stock to own down the road","text":"NVDA will be a great stock to own down the road","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/125582527","repostId":"1175794606","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175794606","pubTimestamp":1624677803,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175794606?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-26 11:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Catalysts That Will Drive Nvidia Stock Higher","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175794606","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"ARM merger and AI will take NVDA stock to new highs in the future.As Nvidia finally completes the much-awaited stock split, the leader in the semiconductor industry has a lot working in its favor. If you missed out on the opportunity to buy NVDA stock and enjoy the 4-for-1 stock split, you can still invest in the company. When it comes to fundamentals, Nvidia is one of the best. It is the gold standard in GPU processing and has become a leader in the AI industry.The stock is up 95% over the last","content":"<p>ARM merger and AI will take NVDA stock to new highs in the future.</p>\n<p>As&nbsp;<b>Nvidia</b>(NASDAQ:<b>NVDA</b>)&nbsp;finally completes the much-awaited stock split, the leader in the semiconductor industry has a lot working in its favor. If you missed out on the opportunity to buy NVDA stock and enjoy the 4-for-1 stock split, you can still invest in the company. When it comes to fundamentals, Nvidia is one of the best. It is the gold standard in GPU processing and has become a leader in the AI industry.</p>\n<p>I have always been bullish on NVDA stock and had recommended a purchase before the stock split. The stock has enjoyed an excellent ride over the years.</p>\n<p>It has gone from $104 in April 2017 to $500 in October 2020 and is exchanging hands for $755 today. If you had made the purchase based on my June 9 recommendation at $700, you would be sitting on a chance to get four times shares.</p>\n<p>The stock is up 95% over the last year and 40% over the past six months. Looking at the strong position Nvidia holds in the industry, there is no stopping NVDA stock. Investors should be ready for massive gains in the coming years. With that in mind, let’s take a look at 2 catalysts driving NVDA stock higher.</p>\n<p><b>ARM Acquisition</b></p>\n<p>Nvidia had announced the&nbsp;acquisition of ARM&nbsp;for $40 billion in 2020. The deal has not been received positively in the semiconductor industry but if it goes through, Nvidia has an opportunity to become one of the most important companies with time. It needs approval from the U.K., U.S., European and Chinese regulators.</p>\n<p>This deal will allow Nvidia to advance in the field of computing and it will take the sales and revenue higher. The deal will be complete by March 2022 and once it does, there is no looking back for Nvidia. The company will be able to offer higher efficiency on its products with ARM architecture.</p>\n<p>At a recent conference of Six-Five Summit and CogX,Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang&nbsp;made a case for the merger which would combine the capacities of ARM with Nvidia’s AI capabilities and will lead to the creation of new ideas. The deal will open new business opportunities for Nvidia and will help the company create new products that will only increase its competitive advantage in the industry.</p>\n<p><b>Another step ahead with AI</b></p>\n<p>Nvidia is not new to AI and it is only moving forward with it. The company unveiled&nbsp;Nvidia AI LaunchPad, which is a program for enterprises and it will give access to NVIDIA-powered software and infrastructure to streamline the AI lifecycle.</p>\n<p>Equinix, a leader in digital infrastructure will be the first in the program and it will provide Nvidia-powered solutions on its platform. Nvidia is making it easy for enterprises to get access to AI and deploy it for the growth of their business.</p>\n<p>I strongly believe that AI will take Nvidia higher in the coming months and with each development and update, the company is only making its presence stronger in the industry.</p>\n<p><b>The bottom line on NVDA stock</b></p>\n<p>Once the ARM acquisition is complete, Nvidia could become one of the biggest tech companies today. However, the acquisition may take time but there is no doubting the potential of Nvidia.</p>\n<p>The company has strong fundamentals and enjoys a top position in the industry. There could be a dip in NVDA stock due to the stock split but it proves nothing about the fundamentals.</p>\n<p>Raymond James&nbsp;analyst Chris Caso&nbsp;raised the price target of NVDA stock to $900 with a Strong Buy rating. The analyst believes that the company is best positioned for growth in the long term.</p>\n<p>There is not one but many factors that will take NVDA stock higher and every dip is an opportunity to load up on the stock.</p>\n<p>NVDA stock is poised for long-term growth and is one stock to hold for the decade.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Catalysts That Will Drive Nvidia Stock Higher</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Catalysts That Will Drive Nvidia Stock Higher\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-26 11:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/06/2-catalysts-that-will-drive-nvidia-stock-higher/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ARM merger and AI will take NVDA stock to new highs in the future.\nAs Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA) finally completes the much-awaited stock split, the leader in the semiconductor industry has a lot working in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/2-catalysts-that-will-drive-nvidia-stock-higher/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/2-catalysts-that-will-drive-nvidia-stock-higher/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175794606","content_text":"ARM merger and AI will take NVDA stock to new highs in the future.\nAs Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA) finally completes the much-awaited stock split, the leader in the semiconductor industry has a lot working in its favor. If you missed out on the opportunity to buy NVDA stock and enjoy the 4-for-1 stock split, you can still invest in the company. When it comes to fundamentals, Nvidia is one of the best. It is the gold standard in GPU processing and has become a leader in the AI industry.\nI have always been bullish on NVDA stock and had recommended a purchase before the stock split. The stock has enjoyed an excellent ride over the years.\nIt has gone from $104 in April 2017 to $500 in October 2020 and is exchanging hands for $755 today. If you had made the purchase based on my June 9 recommendation at $700, you would be sitting on a chance to get four times shares.\nThe stock is up 95% over the last year and 40% over the past six months. Looking at the strong position Nvidia holds in the industry, there is no stopping NVDA stock. Investors should be ready for massive gains in the coming years. With that in mind, let’s take a look at 2 catalysts driving NVDA stock higher.\nARM Acquisition\nNvidia had announced the acquisition of ARM for $40 billion in 2020. The deal has not been received positively in the semiconductor industry but if it goes through, Nvidia has an opportunity to become one of the most important companies with time. It needs approval from the U.K., U.S., European and Chinese regulators.\nThis deal will allow Nvidia to advance in the field of computing and it will take the sales and revenue higher. The deal will be complete by March 2022 and once it does, there is no looking back for Nvidia. The company will be able to offer higher efficiency on its products with ARM architecture.\nAt a recent conference of Six-Five Summit and CogX,Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang made a case for the merger which would combine the capacities of ARM with Nvidia’s AI capabilities and will lead to the creation of new ideas. The deal will open new business opportunities for Nvidia and will help the company create new products that will only increase its competitive advantage in the industry.\nAnother step ahead with AI\nNvidia is not new to AI and it is only moving forward with it. The company unveiled Nvidia AI LaunchPad, which is a program for enterprises and it will give access to NVIDIA-powered software and infrastructure to streamline the AI lifecycle.\nEquinix, a leader in digital infrastructure will be the first in the program and it will provide Nvidia-powered solutions on its platform. Nvidia is making it easy for enterprises to get access to AI and deploy it for the growth of their business.\nI strongly believe that AI will take Nvidia higher in the coming months and with each development and update, the company is only making its presence stronger in the industry.\nThe bottom line on NVDA stock\nOnce the ARM acquisition is complete, Nvidia could become one of the biggest tech companies today. However, the acquisition may take time but there is no doubting the potential of Nvidia.\nThe company has strong fundamentals and enjoys a top position in the industry. There could be a dip in NVDA stock due to the stock split but it proves nothing about the fundamentals.\nRaymond James analyst Chris Caso raised the price target of NVDA stock to $900 with a Strong Buy rating. The analyst believes that the company is best positioned for growth in the long term.\nThere is not one but many factors that will take NVDA stock higher and every dip is an opportunity to load up on the stock.\nNVDA stock is poised for long-term growth and is one stock to hold for the decade.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":34,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888117879,"gmtCreate":1631456095791,"gmtModify":1676530550758,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Waiting for Amazon to stock split","listText":"Waiting for Amazon to stock split","text":"Waiting for Amazon to stock split","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/888117879","repostId":"2166377772","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2166377772","pubTimestamp":1631412043,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2166377772?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-12 10:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Got $1,000? 4 Buffett Stocks to Buy and Hold Forever","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2166377772","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Strengthen your portfolio by following Warren Buffett's lead on these stocks.","content":"<p>When Warren Buffett took over <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b> (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B) in 1965, the company was valued at $19 per share. Today, the investment conglomerate's class A shares trade at roughly $424,200 -- good for growth of approximately 2,226,200% across the stretch. With that kind of incredible performance, it's no wonder he's widely considered one of history's best investors.</p>\n<p>Berkshire stock's massive size means that its days of explosive growth are probably in the rearview, but investors will likely still be able to bank strong gains by following moves made by the company and its chief executive officer. Read on for a look at four Buffett-backed stocks that look primed to deliver wins over the long term.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7e64d08376131e83c6ddb13b24638e8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Image source: The Motley Fool.</span></p>\n<h2>1. Berkshire Hathaway</h2>\n<p>If you want to replicate The Oracle of Omaha's investing strategy, the single best way to do it is owning Berkshire Hathaway stock. Led by Buffett, vice chairman Charlie Munger, and a team of expert analysts, Berkshire stands as one of the best-managed investment conglomerates of the last half-century.</p>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway has sector-spanning investment holdings and a legendary management team, so buying its stock is a top way to add a combination of diversified, relatively low-risk holdings to your portfolio. Investing in the company provides a convenient, trustworthy vehicle for broad exposure to the stock market and an equity stake in other businesses and assets under Berkshire's corporate umbrella.</p>\n<p>In addition to the other stocks profiled in this article, Berkshire Hathaway gives investors exposure to companies including <b>Coca-Cola</b>, <b>Bank of America</b>, <b>American Express</b>, and many others. While Berkshire has a reputation for focusing on value plays in time-tested business categories, the company has gradually been shifting to accommodate a more tech-focused approach to investing. Buffett's and Munger's investing philosophy still plays a key role in shaping the company's direction, but Berkshire is also building positions in future-oriented tech players, and that should work to the advantage of long-term shareholders.</p>\n<h2>2. Apple</h2>\n<p><b>Apple</b> (NASDAQ:AAPL) stands as the single largest stock holding in the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio. While Buffett is known to have been generally averse to tech stocks due to their complicated businesses and growth-dependent valuations, that's started to change in recent years, and his company has been adding more tech stocks to its holdings. Berkshire's big investments in Apple can be seen as leading the company's emerging tech foundations.</p>\n<p>Apple has built one of the strongest brands in the consumer hardware space, and that's also paved the way for a robust software and subscription services ecosystem. Apple will likely continue to command forefront positions in the mobile hardware and software spaces, and it stands out as a likely beneficiary of emerging long-term growth trends, including wearable computing, 5G, and augmented reality.</p>\n<h2>3. Verizon</h2>\n<p>Buffett is known for liking businesses that have strong brand strength, and <b>Verizon</b> (NYSE:VZ) certainly ticks that box. The telecommunications company has America's largest wireless subscriber base, and it regularly wins awards for having the industry's best network coverage and customer service. With 5G availability still rolling out and phones that support next-generation network services just starting to become widely available, Verizon is likely in the early stages of benefiting from a major transition.</p>\n<p>And when it's time to roll out the next wireless network generations and leaps forward in upload and download speeds, there's a good chance that Verizon will continue to be at the forefront. Access to dependable, high-quality internet service will only become increasingly central to business and everyday life, and Verizon is a top candidate for benefiting from this long-term trend.</p>\n<h2>4. Amazon</h2>\n<p><b>Amazon</b> (NASDAQ:AMZN) is one of the world's most influential companies, and it's likely that the tech giant will continue to improve and innovate. With leading positions in e-commerce and cloud infrastructure service, Amazon is at the forefront of incredibly important industries that have far-reaching connections to a huge range of businesses. The company has also used its strengths in online retail and data analysis to establish a third-place position in the digital advertising market, and it looks poised to continue benefiting from the ongoing growth of digital ads.</p>\n<p>The e-commerce, cloud computing services, and digital advertising industries still have long runways for growth, and there's a good chance that Amazon will be able to use its immense resources to expand into new growth categories that strengthen the overall business. The stock has already put up stellar performance, and it continues to offer an attractive risk-reward dynamic for long-term investors.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Got $1,000? 4 Buffett Stocks to Buy and Hold Forever</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGot $1,000? 4 Buffett Stocks to Buy and Hold Forever\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-12 10:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/11/got-1000-4-buffett-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-forever/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>When Warren Buffett took over Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B) in 1965, the company was valued at $19 per share. Today, the investment conglomerate's class A shares trade at roughly $424,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/11/got-1000-4-buffett-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-forever/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","VZ":"威瑞森","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","AAPL":"苹果","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/11/got-1000-4-buffett-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-forever/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2166377772","content_text":"When Warren Buffett took over Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B) in 1965, the company was valued at $19 per share. Today, the investment conglomerate's class A shares trade at roughly $424,200 -- good for growth of approximately 2,226,200% across the stretch. With that kind of incredible performance, it's no wonder he's widely considered one of history's best investors.\nBerkshire stock's massive size means that its days of explosive growth are probably in the rearview, but investors will likely still be able to bank strong gains by following moves made by the company and its chief executive officer. Read on for a look at four Buffett-backed stocks that look primed to deliver wins over the long term.\nImage source: The Motley Fool.\n1. Berkshire Hathaway\nIf you want to replicate The Oracle of Omaha's investing strategy, the single best way to do it is owning Berkshire Hathaway stock. Led by Buffett, vice chairman Charlie Munger, and a team of expert analysts, Berkshire stands as one of the best-managed investment conglomerates of the last half-century.\nBerkshire Hathaway has sector-spanning investment holdings and a legendary management team, so buying its stock is a top way to add a combination of diversified, relatively low-risk holdings to your portfolio. Investing in the company provides a convenient, trustworthy vehicle for broad exposure to the stock market and an equity stake in other businesses and assets under Berkshire's corporate umbrella.\nIn addition to the other stocks profiled in this article, Berkshire Hathaway gives investors exposure to companies including Coca-Cola, Bank of America, American Express, and many others. While Berkshire has a reputation for focusing on value plays in time-tested business categories, the company has gradually been shifting to accommodate a more tech-focused approach to investing. Buffett's and Munger's investing philosophy still plays a key role in shaping the company's direction, but Berkshire is also building positions in future-oriented tech players, and that should work to the advantage of long-term shareholders.\n2. Apple\nApple (NASDAQ:AAPL) stands as the single largest stock holding in the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio. While Buffett is known to have been generally averse to tech stocks due to their complicated businesses and growth-dependent valuations, that's started to change in recent years, and his company has been adding more tech stocks to its holdings. Berkshire's big investments in Apple can be seen as leading the company's emerging tech foundations.\nApple has built one of the strongest brands in the consumer hardware space, and that's also paved the way for a robust software and subscription services ecosystem. Apple will likely continue to command forefront positions in the mobile hardware and software spaces, and it stands out as a likely beneficiary of emerging long-term growth trends, including wearable computing, 5G, and augmented reality.\n3. Verizon\nBuffett is known for liking businesses that have strong brand strength, and Verizon (NYSE:VZ) certainly ticks that box. The telecommunications company has America's largest wireless subscriber base, and it regularly wins awards for having the industry's best network coverage and customer service. With 5G availability still rolling out and phones that support next-generation network services just starting to become widely available, Verizon is likely in the early stages of benefiting from a major transition.\nAnd when it's time to roll out the next wireless network generations and leaps forward in upload and download speeds, there's a good chance that Verizon will continue to be at the forefront. Access to dependable, high-quality internet service will only become increasingly central to business and everyday life, and Verizon is a top candidate for benefiting from this long-term trend.\n4. Amazon\nAmazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is one of the world's most influential companies, and it's likely that the tech giant will continue to improve and innovate. With leading positions in e-commerce and cloud infrastructure service, Amazon is at the forefront of incredibly important industries that have far-reaching connections to a huge range of businesses. The company has also used its strengths in online retail and data analysis to establish a third-place position in the digital advertising market, and it looks poised to continue benefiting from the ongoing growth of digital ads.\nThe e-commerce, cloud computing services, and digital advertising industries still have long runways for growth, and there's a good chance that Amazon will be able to use its immense resources to expand into new growth categories that strengthen the overall business. The stock has already put up stellar performance, and it continues to offer an attractive risk-reward dynamic for long-term investors.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896182050,"gmtCreate":1628561761670,"gmtModify":1703508145243,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"And that's the bubble that made him what he is today.","listText":"And that's the bubble that made him what he is today.","text":"And that's the bubble that made him what he is today.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/896182050","repostId":"1135437633","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":80,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179354673,"gmtCreate":1626488387992,"gmtModify":1703761012487,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"God knows if the price is dropping due to disinterest of the stock by retail investors or institutional manipulation.","listText":"God knows if the price is dropping due to disinterest of the stock by retail investors or institutional manipulation.","text":"God knows if the price is dropping due to disinterest of the stock by retail investors or institutional manipulation.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179354673","repostId":"1159574501","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159574501","pubTimestamp":1626484131,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1159574501?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-17 09:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Bad Omen' For Meme Stocks And The Retail Trading Boom? Here's What The Data Says","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159574501","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Social media meme stocks GameStop Corp.(NYSE:GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc(NYSE:AMC) took ","content":"<p>Social media meme stocks&nbsp;<b>GameStop Corp.</b>(NYSE:GME) and&nbsp;<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc</b>(NYSE:AMC) took a beating this week, with GameStop on track to finish the week down 9% and AMC set to lose 20.9% in Friday afternoon trading.</p>\n<p>DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas said this week&nbsp;there is an ominous sign the&nbsp;meme stock phenomenon may be dying a slow death.</p>\n<p><b>Retail Trading Boom:</b>DataTrek has been periodically tracking the boom in retail traders triggered during the pandemic in 2020 and 2021 by monitoring U.S. Google search volume for the keywords “invest” and “buy stock.” Colas said these basic search terms are a broad way to gauge marginal retail investor interest in the stock market.</p>\n<p>The image below shows how search volume for those key phrases has changed since the beginning of 2020.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9930646712b9790171cccf12a873f757\" tg-width=\"1199\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Colas said the search volume data clearly indicates the retail stock trading fad is completely over at this point, a “very bad omen” for AMC and GameStop. In fact, Google search volume is now back down to where it was before the pandemic started in early 2020.</p>\n<p>In addition, search volumes are now down 75% from their peak levels during the initial short squeezes in AMC and GameStop back in January 2021.</p>\n<p>Colas said meme stocks like AMC need new retail stock traders to join in the buying to support their stock prices else they could be headed for more volatility like they have experienced this week.</p>\n<p>“Bubbles need fresh money, or they deflate. Quickly,” Colas wrote. “Every craze needs new adherents (i.e., not just the same crowd) to keep it relevant, and the Google chart shows those are in increasingly short supply.”</p>\n<p><b>PMP Weighs In:</b>Benzinga&nbsp;PreMarket Prep co-host Dennis Dick said&nbsp;a good story can carry a stock a long way, and some stocks can even become so hot that they become temporarily disconnected from the company’s underlying fundamentals.</p>\n<p>“We have seen that in a number of meme stocks this year. Story can drive price in the short run but stocks almost always return back to their fundamental value in the long run,” Dick said.</p>\n<p>The type of disconnect between share price and underlying value that AMC and GameStop have experienced in 2021 is certainly nothing new. Canadian cannabis stock&nbsp;<b>Tilray Inc</b>(NASDAQ:TLRY) experienced a similar disconnect back in 2018 when a retail stock mania sent the stock skyrocketing up to $300. Today, Tilray is trading back down at around $13.90.</p>\n<p>“As the stock price begins to fall, momentum traders who have been chasing the hot story will begin to exit. But if the stock trades at an extreme valuation, there may be very few traders willing to buy. This is what we are starting to see in many meme stocks today,” Dick said.</p>\n<p><b>Benzinga's Take:</b>If the story begins to get hot again, the stock prices of overvalued story stocks can always recover once again. But without any underlying fundamentals to support the valuation, these types of stocks need a constant stream of new buyers and an increasingly bullish story to generate fresh enthusiasm.</p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'Bad Omen' For Meme Stocks And The Retail Trading Boom? Here's What The Data Says</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'Bad Omen' For Meme Stocks And The Retail Trading Boom? Here's What The Data Says\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-17 09:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/07/22023662/bad-omen-for-meme-stocks-and-the-retail-trading-boom-heres-what-the-data-says><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Social media meme stocks GameStop Corp.(NYSE:GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc(NYSE:AMC) took a beating this week, with GameStop on track to finish the week down 9% and AMC set to lose 20.9% in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/07/22023662/bad-omen-for-meme-stocks-and-the-retail-trading-boom-heres-what-the-data-says\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TLRY":"Tilray Inc.","GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/07/22023662/bad-omen-for-meme-stocks-and-the-retail-trading-boom-heres-what-the-data-says","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159574501","content_text":"Social media meme stocks GameStop Corp.(NYSE:GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc(NYSE:AMC) took a beating this week, with GameStop on track to finish the week down 9% and AMC set to lose 20.9% in Friday afternoon trading.\nDataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas said this week there is an ominous sign the meme stock phenomenon may be dying a slow death.\nRetail Trading Boom:DataTrek has been periodically tracking the boom in retail traders triggered during the pandemic in 2020 and 2021 by monitoring U.S. Google search volume for the keywords “invest” and “buy stock.” Colas said these basic search terms are a broad way to gauge marginal retail investor interest in the stock market.\nThe image below shows how search volume for those key phrases has changed since the beginning of 2020.\n\nColas said the search volume data clearly indicates the retail stock trading fad is completely over at this point, a “very bad omen” for AMC and GameStop. In fact, Google search volume is now back down to where it was before the pandemic started in early 2020.\nIn addition, search volumes are now down 75% from their peak levels during the initial short squeezes in AMC and GameStop back in January 2021.\nColas said meme stocks like AMC need new retail stock traders to join in the buying to support their stock prices else they could be headed for more volatility like they have experienced this week.\n“Bubbles need fresh money, or they deflate. Quickly,” Colas wrote. “Every craze needs new adherents (i.e., not just the same crowd) to keep it relevant, and the Google chart shows those are in increasingly short supply.”\nPMP Weighs In:Benzinga PreMarket Prep co-host Dennis Dick said a good story can carry a stock a long way, and some stocks can even become so hot that they become temporarily disconnected from the company’s underlying fundamentals.\n“We have seen that in a number of meme stocks this year. Story can drive price in the short run but stocks almost always return back to their fundamental value in the long run,” Dick said.\nThe type of disconnect between share price and underlying value that AMC and GameStop have experienced in 2021 is certainly nothing new. Canadian cannabis stock Tilray Inc(NASDAQ:TLRY) experienced a similar disconnect back in 2018 when a retail stock mania sent the stock skyrocketing up to $300. Today, Tilray is trading back down at around $13.90.\n“As the stock price begins to fall, momentum traders who have been chasing the hot story will begin to exit. But if the stock trades at an extreme valuation, there may be very few traders willing to buy. This is what we are starting to see in many meme stocks today,” Dick said.\nBenzinga's Take:If the story begins to get hot again, the stock prices of overvalued story stocks can always recover once again. But without any underlying fundamentals to support the valuation, these types of stocks need a constant stream of new buyers and an increasingly bullish story to generate fresh enthusiasm.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897905760,"gmtCreate":1628866108650,"gmtModify":1676529880736,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Engaging with public is one of the smartest move. These positive sentiments could become the strongest support of&nbsp;a company, especially during trying period like now. Great CEO.","listText":"Engaging with public is one of the smartest move. These positive sentiments could become the strongest support of&nbsp;a company, especially during trying period like now. Great CEO.","text":"Engaging with public is one of the smartest move. These positive sentiments could become the strongest support of a company, especially during trying period like now. Great CEO.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/897905760","repostId":"1100581820","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100581820","pubTimestamp":1628846483,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100581820?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-13 17:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Stock: Is Adam Aron The Best CEO Ever?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100581820","media":"Thestreet","summary":"After AMC (AMC) “crushed” second quarter results, CEO Adam Aron deserves quite a bit of credit for t","content":"<p>After AMC&nbsp;(<b>AMC</b>)&nbsp;“crushed” second quarter results, CEO Adam Aron deserves quite a bit of credit for the accomplishment. Under his leadership, AMC’s business has been showing early but encouraging signs of recovery.</p>\n<p>Also, the CEO reinforced his good relationship with the ape community, one of the key pillars of AMC’s recovery this year. Wall Street Memes discusses why Adam Aron might be considered “one of the greatest business people”, a title recentlygivento him by Mad Money’s Jim Cramer.</p>\n<h3>Adam’s background</h3>\n<p>As a former CEO of the Philadelphia 76ers (currently co-owner), Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) and Vail Resorts (MTN), Adam Aron has been successful in every company that he has led. At the helm of AMC today, the same seems to be true, despite the immense challenges of late.</p>\n<p>Since 2015, Adam has been the CEO of AMC Entertainment. He has been consistently praised fortransformingAMC and shaking up the movie theater business.</p>\n<p>However, his biggest career challenge began last year, with the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to the lockdowns, AMC was forced to close all of its theaters, which put the company on the edge of bankruptcy.</p>\n<h3>Luck follows the successful</h3>\n<p>Adam Aron was unknown to the masses until the surge of meme mania. With the help of the ape community, AMC share price rose to stratospheric levels and became one of the most popular stocks in the entire exchange.</p>\n<p>Due to the companybeingthe target of massive short selling, Reddit forums organized by retail investors made a push to buy AMC shares en masse. The efforts resulted in a spike in the company's market cap from $300 million in early 2021 to the current $16 billion.</p>\n<p>Following AMC's rally, in June, 11 million new shareswereissued, which enabled AMC to raise hundreds of millions in equity and gave an unexpected boost to the company's liquidity. The impact was felt in last period’s financial results. \"The second quarter of 2021 was transformational for AMC,\" said CEO Adam Aron.</p>\n<h3>Apes being valued</h3>\n<p>Ape commitment has been crucial for the company to raise large quantities of cash. It is not hard, therefore, to understand why Adam Aron values  his individual shareholders so much. Recently, he listened to them anddeclined the issuance of another 25 million shares—which would have brought another pile of cash to AMC's vaults.</p>\n<p>In addition, the CEO has been very active and open to dialogue with the apes. According to him, many ideas suggested by shareholders were considered, including apossiblepartnership with Ryan Cohen from GameStop and theinclusionof bitcoin as payment in movie theaters — the latter having already been executed. Also, in the last earnings call,AMC openedthe floor for direct Q&amp;A with individual shareholders, which is quite unusual among publicly traded companies.</p>\n<p>However, the CEO very carefullyhintedthat he will likely sell some of his shares in the near future to rebalance his personal equity since he has not yet sold any of his 758,747 common AMC shares. We have not seen much pushback from the ape community on his decision.</p>\n<h3>Best CEO ever?</h3>\n<p>Overall, CEO Adam Aron seems to enjoy a status of leadership among the apes, which he has earned by putting retail investors at the center of the conversations. Such status and his wiliness to listen, in turn, have benefitted the company (think of the equity issuance), creating a virtuous cycle that seems to please the shareholder base.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Stock: Is Adam Aron The Best CEO Ever?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Stock: Is Adam Aron The Best CEO Ever?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-13 17:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/memestocks/amc/amc-stock-is-adam-aron-the-best-ceo-ever><strong>Thestreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>After AMC (AMC) “crushed” second quarter results, CEO Adam Aron deserves quite a bit of credit for the accomplishment. Under his leadership, AMC’s business has been showing early but encouraging signs...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/memestocks/amc/amc-stock-is-adam-aron-the-best-ceo-ever\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/memestocks/amc/amc-stock-is-adam-aron-the-best-ceo-ever","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100581820","content_text":"After AMC (AMC) “crushed” second quarter results, CEO Adam Aron deserves quite a bit of credit for the accomplishment. Under his leadership, AMC’s business has been showing early but encouraging signs of recovery.\nAlso, the CEO reinforced his good relationship with the ape community, one of the key pillars of AMC’s recovery this year. Wall Street Memes discusses why Adam Aron might be considered “one of the greatest business people”, a title recentlygivento him by Mad Money’s Jim Cramer.\nAdam’s background\nAs a former CEO of the Philadelphia 76ers (currently co-owner), Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) and Vail Resorts (MTN), Adam Aron has been successful in every company that he has led. At the helm of AMC today, the same seems to be true, despite the immense challenges of late.\nSince 2015, Adam has been the CEO of AMC Entertainment. He has been consistently praised fortransformingAMC and shaking up the movie theater business.\nHowever, his biggest career challenge began last year, with the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to the lockdowns, AMC was forced to close all of its theaters, which put the company on the edge of bankruptcy.\nLuck follows the successful\nAdam Aron was unknown to the masses until the surge of meme mania. With the help of the ape community, AMC share price rose to stratospheric levels and became one of the most popular stocks in the entire exchange.\nDue to the companybeingthe target of massive short selling, Reddit forums organized by retail investors made a push to buy AMC shares en masse. The efforts resulted in a spike in the company's market cap from $300 million in early 2021 to the current $16 billion.\nFollowing AMC's rally, in June, 11 million new shareswereissued, which enabled AMC to raise hundreds of millions in equity and gave an unexpected boost to the company's liquidity. The impact was felt in last period’s financial results. \"The second quarter of 2021 was transformational for AMC,\" said CEO Adam Aron.\nApes being valued\nApe commitment has been crucial for the company to raise large quantities of cash. It is not hard, therefore, to understand why Adam Aron values  his individual shareholders so much. Recently, he listened to them anddeclined the issuance of another 25 million shares—which would have brought another pile of cash to AMC's vaults.\nIn addition, the CEO has been very active and open to dialogue with the apes. According to him, many ideas suggested by shareholders were considered, including apossiblepartnership with Ryan Cohen from GameStop and theinclusionof bitcoin as payment in movie theaters — the latter having already been executed. Also, in the last earnings call,AMC openedthe floor for direct Q&A with individual shareholders, which is quite unusual among publicly traded companies.\nHowever, the CEO very carefullyhintedthat he will likely sell some of his shares in the near future to rebalance his personal equity since he has not yet sold any of his 758,747 common AMC shares. We have not seen much pushback from the ape community on his decision.\nBest CEO ever?\nOverall, CEO Adam Aron seems to enjoy a status of leadership among the apes, which he has earned by putting retail investors at the center of the conversations. Such status and his wiliness to listen, in turn, have benefitted the company (think of the equity issuance), creating a virtuous cycle that seems to please the shareholder base.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":69,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9086659371,"gmtCreate":1650452969240,"gmtModify":1676534727008,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is this Gordon?","listText":"Is this Gordon?","text":"Is this Gordon?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9086659371","repostId":"1105569285","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105569285","pubTimestamp":1650468622,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105569285?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-20 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is The End Near For Musk And Tesla?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105569285","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryDespite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Despite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.</li><li>While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.</li><li>The hype around Musk’s stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead of Tesla.</li></ul><p>For years, Elon Musk has used hype to prop up Tesla’s stock. It’s worked so well that other companies have followed his lead. But now, we think the world has seen that the emperor has no clothes. The attempted Twitter (TWTR) takeover is yet another example of Musk bullying his way into what he wants and underscores how his super-star status cannot always convince people to overlook his irreverent, reckless, and potentially illegal behavior. As the recent lawsuit againstMusk shows, he is not completely immune from the consequences of his actions. Despite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.</p><p><b>End of the Road for Musk</b></p><p>Most investors are keenly aware of Musk’s long history of making grand promises that don’t come true – the Roadster, the Semi, the Cybertruck, full-self driving (FSD) etc. – and at times are blatantly unethical, such as tweeting “funding secured” to go private, and pumping Doge coin. But now, we have evidence that he may have acted illegally in the way he reported his purchases of Twitter stock. Given the clear rules about how investors should report large stakes in public companies – like what Musk has in Twitter – this case seems straightforward: Musk broke the rules.</p><p>The next question is how severely he will be punished. If the past is any guide, regulators will not muster more than a slap on the wrist. The real question is how institutional investors will react to signs Musk has pushed the envelope too far.</p><p>Institutional investors own Tesla stock more often because they must, given its influence on their performance, than because they see it as a good investment. Any investor with a rigorous process can see the stock is ridiculously overvalued; so, you own it for the “Musk effect”. Accordingly, the institutional investors’ decision to sell Tesla stock will be based on when Musk’s outsized influence begins to wane.</p><p>We think that moment has come.</p><p><b>Musk Meets His Maker: Twitter</b></p><p>In our view, Musk’s repeated rule-breaking behavior has finally gone too far. Details of the case are still emerging, but Musk’s failure to disclose his more than 5% stake in Twitter arguably hurt investors who sold shares after he crossed that ownership threshold. Instead, Musk kept purchasing shares until reaching a 9% stake in Twitter before disclosing his position. The initial class-action lawsuit and the potential for more have finally gotten the attention of investors, if not regulators.</p><p>The poor reception Twitter’s employees gave the news of Musk’s stake is a very public rejection of his super-star influencer status and provide the first tangible evidence that maybe his star power has limitations. If a hostile takeover prompts a mass exodus of talent, then Musk might end up destroying the company in the process of buying it. That being said, the loudest voices in the company are not necessarily the most valuable.</p><p>As more people join lawsuits against Musk, and Twitter employees continue to express their mistrust of the company’s largest shareholder, institutional investors may seize this moment to quietly unload their shares of overvalued Tesla stock. Now is the time to sell because the price of the stock to this point has been more a reflection of Musk’s ability to draw an audience than any underlying fundamental value in the company.</p><p><b>Live by the Stunt, Die by the Stunt</b></p><p>Ultimately, it appears that as much as Twitter was the launch pad for Musk’s super influence powers, his failure thus far to win the publicity battle could mark the beginning-of-the-end of his super-star status.</p><p>Musk’s Twitter play, which is another in a long series of distractions, could end poorly for Musk. Instead of addressing Tesla’s issues, Musk appears to be attempting to position himself as a defender of free speech. The risk he faces is that instead of looking like a hero he looks more like a bully running an ego-driven takeover with little regard for the rules. While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable (more on this below), a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.</p><p>Tesla’s investors have not been impressed with Musk’s Twitter antics either, as the stock is down 11% since he announced his ownership in the social media giant. Likewise, the “Musk bump” in Twitter shares is likely to fade as investors realize the only value Musk brought was publicity, and not good publicity either. Although Twitter remains a popular platform, it has its own problems and suggestions such as removing a letter from its name can do more harm than good.</p><p><b>Why Haven’t Regulators Done Anything Before Now?</b></p><p>Tesla’s high stock price has, thus far, kept its CEO well beyond an arm’s length of regulators. Other executives in other times likely would have faced consequences for many of the things Musk has said and done. Today, Tesla’s high stock price indicates investors’ collective belief in Musk’s promises and protects Musk. Regulators don’t want to be accused of causing the company’s stock price to fall, thereby destroying the wealth of many investors and, as a result, footing the cost of defending against numerous shareholder lawsuits.</p><p>Furthermore, Musk can claim Tesla’s elevated stock price and the wealth it endows is what he needs to fulfill his outlandish promises over time. However, should Tesla’s stock price ever reflect realistic expectations for the company, authorities may feel emboldened to pursue legal or regulatory action against Musk and/or Tesla. Credible claims can be made for several offenses, including:</p><ul><li>stock and cryptocurrency manipulation</li><li>false advertising of Full Self Driving (FSD)</li><li>ignoring safety authorities</li><li>neglecting to file documentation on time related to his purchase of Twitter’s shares</li><li>and other claims of dubious veracity</li></ul><p><b>What Will Regulators Do When the Bubble Pops?</b></p><p>Musk has positioned himself as a pop-culture icon. Though society loves to build up celebrities, so too does it love tearing them down even more. Once Tesla’s stock price falls from its overly inflated levels, Musk will lose his cover that has protected him from all his unethical and arguably illegal behavior. Regulators are likely to come after Musk with knives out after all the humiliation they had to suffer at his hand.</p><p><b>Trouble on the Horizon</b></p><p>All the hype around Musk’s large stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead for Tesla. Of course, that is likely his goal. Below we discuss the fundamentals of Tesla’s business, which cannot be wished away or made irrelevant with hype.</p><p><b>Incumbents Are Catching Up:</b> Tesla’s first-mover advantage has long been cited as reason enough for investors to pile their money into the company. However, that advantage is gone, and in some cases turning into a lag. Ford (F), Rivian (RIVN), and General Motors (GM) aim to produce EV trucks in 2022, but Tesla will be on the sidelines until at least 2023 before launching its Cybertruck.</p><p>The rising competition from incumbents means the days of Tesla’s rising profitability could be numbered. For starters, 26% of the company’s GAAP earnings in 2021 were from the sale of regulatory credits, not from the underlying economics of making and selling vehicles and other ancillary services.</p><p>Once incumbents increase production of EVs they will need to purchase fewer credits from Elon. That means Tesla needs to actually start <i>selling</i> <i>cars</i>to make money. The catch-22 is that for the company to sell more cars, it first needs to increase its production capacity. If Tesla’s succeeds in selling more cars capital expenditure and working capital are primed to grow along with sales. Tesla needs to build economies of scale before it can benefit from them.</p><p><b>Market Share Losses Continue:</b> Incumbent automakers have entered the EV market with scale and are already taking market share from Tesla. Per Figure 2, Tesla’s share of global EV sales fell from 16% in 2019 to 14% in 2021.</p><p>Tesla’s share of the U.S. EV market fell from 79% in2020to 70% in2021. With light truck sales comprising more than three out of every four vehicles sold in the U.S. in January 2022, Tesla falling behind in truck EVs means its share of the U.S. market could fall further.</p><p><b>Figure 2: Tesla’s Share of the Global EV Sales</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc4dd16dde86e1ab31f85bd8a2af4aee\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"260\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSLA Market Share Since 2019(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC, EV-volumes.com and Statista</p><p><b>Slow Start to 2022:</b>Though Teslaforecastedan at least 50% YoY rise in deliveries in 2022, the company is feeling the effects of supply chain problems – just like every other automaker. The company delivered 310,000 vehicles in the quarter, while consensus estimates were for 313,000.</p><p><b>Reverse DCF Math: Valuation Implies Tesla Will Own at Least 57% of the Global Passenger EV Market</b></p><p>Despite the increased competition, failure to meet delivery expectations, and diminutive share of the global EV market in 2021, Tesla’s valuation implies the company will own 57% of the global passenger EV market in 2030.</p><p>Even if Tesla increases the average selling price (ASP) per vehicle to $55K vs. ($49K in 2021), Tesla’s stock price at ~$1,100/share implies the firm will sell 15 million vehicles in 2030 versus ~936k in 2021. That figure represents 57% of the projected base case global EV passenger vehicle market in 2030 and the implied vehicle sales based on a lower ASP looks even more unrealistic.</p><p>To provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations reflected in Tesla’s stock price, we assume Tesla achieves profit margins 1.5x Toyota Motor Corp (TM) and triples its current auto manufacturing efficiency.</p><p>Per Figure 3, an $1,100/share price implies that, in 2030, Tesla will sell the following number of vehicles based on these ASP benchmarks:</p><ul><li>15 million vehicles – ASP of $55K (above average U.S. new car price of $47K in 2021)</li><li>7 million vehicles – ASP of $49K (equal to Tesla’s 2021 ASP[1])</li><li>21 million vehicles – ASP of $38K (equal to General Motors’ ASP[2] of $38K in 2021)</li></ul><p>If Tesla achieves those EV sales, the implied market share for the company would be the following (assuming global passenger EV sales reach 26 million in 2030, the base case projection from the IEA):</p><ul><li>57% for 15 million vehicles</li><li>64% for 17 million vehicles</li><li>83% for 21 million vehicles</li></ul><p>If we assume the IEA’s best case for global passenger EV sales in 2030, 47 million vehicles, the above vehicle sales represent:</p><ul><li>31% for 15 million vehicles</li><li>35% for 17 million vehicles</li><li>45% for 21 million vehicles</li></ul><p><b>Figure 3: Tesla’s Implied Vehicle Sales in 2030 to Justify $1,100/Share</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bad84793f241565c81ebb0d29b01242c\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSLA DCF Implied Vehicle Production(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings</p><p><b>Tesla Must Generate More Profits Than Apple For Investors to Make Money</b></p><p>Below are the assumptions we use in our reverse discounted cash flow model to calculate the implied production levels above.</p><p>Bulls should understand what Tesla needs to accomplish to justify ~$1,100/share:</p><ul><li>immediately achieve a 14% NOPAT margin (1.5x Toyota’s margin, which is the highest of the large-scale automakers we cover), compared to Tesla’s TTM margin of 8%) and</li><li>grow revenue by 32% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.</li></ul><p>In this scenario, Tesla generates <i>$811 billion</i> in revenue in 2030, which is 116% of the combined revenues of Toyota, Stellantis (STLA), Ford, General Motors, and Honda (HMC) over the past twelve months. Tesla must replace the U.S. auto industry before 2030 to justify current valuations.</p><p>This scenario also implies Tesla grows net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) by 2,458% from 2021 to 2030. In this scenario, Tesla generates $112 billion in NOPAT in 2030, or 12% higher than Apple’s (AAPL) TTM NOPAT, which, at $100 billion, is the highest of all companies we cover, and 65% higher than Microsoft (MSFT), the second-highest. Those companies have intertwined themselves in the lives of consumers and businesses around the world, which seems an unlikely feat for Tesla at this point.</p><p><b>TSLA Has 46% Downside If Morgan Stanley Is Right About Sales</b></p><p>If we assume Tesla reaches Morgan Stanley’s estimate of selling 8.1 million cars in 2030 (which implies a 31% share of the global passenger EV market in 2030), at an ASP of $55k, the stock is worth just $542/share. Details:</p><ul><li>NOPAT margin improves to 14% and</li><li>revenue grows 27% compounded annually over the next decade, then</li></ul><p>the stock is worth just $547/share today – a 46% downside to the current price. See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario. In this scenario, Tesla grows NOPAT to $62 billion, or nearly 14x its 2021 NOPAT, and just 7% below Alphabet’s (GOOGL) 2021 NOPAT.</p><p><b>TSLA Has 80%+ Downside Even with 27% Market Share and Realistic Margins</b></p><p>If we estimate more reasonable (but still very optimistic) margins and market share achievements for Tesla, the stock is worth just $200/share. Here’s the math:</p><ul><li>NOPAT margin improves to 9% (equal to Toyota’s TTM margin) and</li><li>revenue grows by consensus estimates from 2022 to 2024 and</li><li>revenue grows 17% a year from 2025 to 2030, then</li></ul><p>the stock is worth just $200/share today – an 80% downside to the current price.</p><p>In this scenario, Tesla sells 7 million cars (27% of the global passenger EV market in 2030) at an ASP of $47K (average new car price in U.S. in 2021) and grows NOPAT by 24% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.</p><p>We also assume a more realistic NOPAT margin of 9% in this scenario, which is 1.3x higher than Toyota’s industry-leading five-year average NOPAT margin of 7%. Given the required capital requirements to fund manufacturing and match increased competition in the EV market, Tesla is unlikely to achieve and sustain a margin as high as 9% from 2022 to 2030. If Tesla fails to meet these expectations, then the stock is worth less than $200/share.</p><p>Figure 4 compares the firm’s historical NOPAT to the NOPAT implied in the above scenarios to illustrate just how high the expectations baked into Tesla’s stock price remain. For additional context, we show Toyota’s, General Motors’, and Apple’s TTM NOPAT.</p><p><b>Figure 4: Tesla’s Historical and Implied NOPAT: DCF Valuation Scenarios</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e43f865637ac4c84e8199df2b05d061\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSLA DCF Implied NOPAT(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings</p><p>Each of the above scenarios assumes Tesla’s invested capital grows 14% compounded annually through 2030. For reference, Tesla’s invested capital grew 49% compounded annually from 2011 to 2021 and 30% compounded annually since 2015.</p><p>An invested capital CAGR of 14% represents 1/3rdthe CAGR of Tesla’s property, plant, and equipment since 2011 and assumes the company can build future plants and produce cars 3x more efficiently than it has so far.</p><p>In other words, we aim to provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations for future market share and profits reflected in Tesla’s stock market valuation.</p><p><b>Tesla Won’t Be the Only One to Fall</b></p><p>Other meme stocks have taken pages from the Musk playbook and will likely suffer the same fate we expect Tesla to suffer once the game is up. GameStop (GME) promised to transform itself into an ecommerce powerhouse, yet the company continues to head in the opposite direction and earnings continue to disappoint. GameStop’s Core Earnings fell from -$200 million in fiscal 2021 to -$321 million in fiscal 2022.</p><p>Despite the company’s inability to quickly execute operational change, GameStop’s stock has remained well above a reasonable valuation thanks in part to announcing the launch of a marketplace for nonfungible tokens (NFTs) and partnerships with blockchain firms.</p><p>AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) has also run several Tesla-esque plays to prop up its stock. Indeed, the company’s CEO recently tweeted that the company is “playing on offense again” with its investment in a microcap gold mine. Before gold mines, the company got on the crypto bandwagon in 2021 by accepting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Litecoin.</p><p>Beyond the repeated attempts at propping up their stocks, the fundamentally weak business models of Tesla, GameStop, and AMC Entertainment in highly competitive industries burn cash and continue to dilute shareholders whenever possible. Per Figure 5, despite combining for more than $1.1 trillion of market cap, Tesla, AMC Entertainment, and GameStop have a combined economic book value, our measure of the no growth value of a stock, of -$52 billion and -$4.3 billion of free cash flow over the past twelve months.</p><p><b>Figure 5: Meme Stock’s Market Cap, Economic Book Value &amp; FCF: TTM</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add55782c8e6b0e8a891f84c9ec7421f\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"119\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Meme Stocks Market Cap, Economic Book Value, FCF(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings</p><p><i>This article originally published on April 14, 2022.</i></p><p><i>Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, and Matt Shuler receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector, style, or theme.</i></p><p>[1] Tesla’s ASP = (total automotive revenues – regulatory credits) / deliveries</p><p>[2] General Motors’ ASP = Vehicle, parts and accessories / wholesale vehicle sales</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is The End Near For Musk And Tesla?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs The End Near For Musk And Tesla?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-20 23:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501979-is-the-end-near-for-musk-and-tesla><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryDespite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501979-is-the-end-near-for-musk-and-tesla\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501979-is-the-end-near-for-musk-and-tesla","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105569285","content_text":"SummaryDespite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.The hype around Musk’s stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead of Tesla.For years, Elon Musk has used hype to prop up Tesla’s stock. It’s worked so well that other companies have followed his lead. But now, we think the world has seen that the emperor has no clothes. The attempted Twitter (TWTR) takeover is yet another example of Musk bullying his way into what he wants and underscores how his super-star status cannot always convince people to overlook his irreverent, reckless, and potentially illegal behavior. As the recent lawsuit againstMusk shows, he is not completely immune from the consequences of his actions. Despite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.End of the Road for MuskMost investors are keenly aware of Musk’s long history of making grand promises that don’t come true – the Roadster, the Semi, the Cybertruck, full-self driving (FSD) etc. – and at times are blatantly unethical, such as tweeting “funding secured” to go private, and pumping Doge coin. But now, we have evidence that he may have acted illegally in the way he reported his purchases of Twitter stock. Given the clear rules about how investors should report large stakes in public companies – like what Musk has in Twitter – this case seems straightforward: Musk broke the rules.The next question is how severely he will be punished. If the past is any guide, regulators will not muster more than a slap on the wrist. The real question is how institutional investors will react to signs Musk has pushed the envelope too far.Institutional investors own Tesla stock more often because they must, given its influence on their performance, than because they see it as a good investment. Any investor with a rigorous process can see the stock is ridiculously overvalued; so, you own it for the “Musk effect”. Accordingly, the institutional investors’ decision to sell Tesla stock will be based on when Musk’s outsized influence begins to wane.We think that moment has come.Musk Meets His Maker: TwitterIn our view, Musk’s repeated rule-breaking behavior has finally gone too far. Details of the case are still emerging, but Musk’s failure to disclose his more than 5% stake in Twitter arguably hurt investors who sold shares after he crossed that ownership threshold. Instead, Musk kept purchasing shares until reaching a 9% stake in Twitter before disclosing his position. The initial class-action lawsuit and the potential for more have finally gotten the attention of investors, if not regulators.The poor reception Twitter’s employees gave the news of Musk’s stake is a very public rejection of his super-star influencer status and provide the first tangible evidence that maybe his star power has limitations. If a hostile takeover prompts a mass exodus of talent, then Musk might end up destroying the company in the process of buying it. That being said, the loudest voices in the company are not necessarily the most valuable.As more people join lawsuits against Musk, and Twitter employees continue to express their mistrust of the company’s largest shareholder, institutional investors may seize this moment to quietly unload their shares of overvalued Tesla stock. Now is the time to sell because the price of the stock to this point has been more a reflection of Musk’s ability to draw an audience than any underlying fundamental value in the company.Live by the Stunt, Die by the StuntUltimately, it appears that as much as Twitter was the launch pad for Musk’s super influence powers, his failure thus far to win the publicity battle could mark the beginning-of-the-end of his super-star status.Musk’s Twitter play, which is another in a long series of distractions, could end poorly for Musk. Instead of addressing Tesla’s issues, Musk appears to be attempting to position himself as a defender of free speech. The risk he faces is that instead of looking like a hero he looks more like a bully running an ego-driven takeover with little regard for the rules. While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable (more on this below), a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.Tesla’s investors have not been impressed with Musk’s Twitter antics either, as the stock is down 11% since he announced his ownership in the social media giant. Likewise, the “Musk bump” in Twitter shares is likely to fade as investors realize the only value Musk brought was publicity, and not good publicity either. Although Twitter remains a popular platform, it has its own problems and suggestions such as removing a letter from its name can do more harm than good.Why Haven’t Regulators Done Anything Before Now?Tesla’s high stock price has, thus far, kept its CEO well beyond an arm’s length of regulators. Other executives in other times likely would have faced consequences for many of the things Musk has said and done. Today, Tesla’s high stock price indicates investors’ collective belief in Musk’s promises and protects Musk. Regulators don’t want to be accused of causing the company’s stock price to fall, thereby destroying the wealth of many investors and, as a result, footing the cost of defending against numerous shareholder lawsuits.Furthermore, Musk can claim Tesla’s elevated stock price and the wealth it endows is what he needs to fulfill his outlandish promises over time. However, should Tesla’s stock price ever reflect realistic expectations for the company, authorities may feel emboldened to pursue legal or regulatory action against Musk and/or Tesla. Credible claims can be made for several offenses, including:stock and cryptocurrency manipulationfalse advertising of Full Self Driving (FSD)ignoring safety authoritiesneglecting to file documentation on time related to his purchase of Twitter’s sharesand other claims of dubious veracityWhat Will Regulators Do When the Bubble Pops?Musk has positioned himself as a pop-culture icon. Though society loves to build up celebrities, so too does it love tearing them down even more. Once Tesla’s stock price falls from its overly inflated levels, Musk will lose his cover that has protected him from all his unethical and arguably illegal behavior. Regulators are likely to come after Musk with knives out after all the humiliation they had to suffer at his hand.Trouble on the HorizonAll the hype around Musk’s large stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead for Tesla. Of course, that is likely his goal. Below we discuss the fundamentals of Tesla’s business, which cannot be wished away or made irrelevant with hype.Incumbents Are Catching Up: Tesla’s first-mover advantage has long been cited as reason enough for investors to pile their money into the company. However, that advantage is gone, and in some cases turning into a lag. Ford (F), Rivian (RIVN), and General Motors (GM) aim to produce EV trucks in 2022, but Tesla will be on the sidelines until at least 2023 before launching its Cybertruck.The rising competition from incumbents means the days of Tesla’s rising profitability could be numbered. For starters, 26% of the company’s GAAP earnings in 2021 were from the sale of regulatory credits, not from the underlying economics of making and selling vehicles and other ancillary services.Once incumbents increase production of EVs they will need to purchase fewer credits from Elon. That means Tesla needs to actually start selling carsto make money. The catch-22 is that for the company to sell more cars, it first needs to increase its production capacity. If Tesla’s succeeds in selling more cars capital expenditure and working capital are primed to grow along with sales. Tesla needs to build economies of scale before it can benefit from them.Market Share Losses Continue: Incumbent automakers have entered the EV market with scale and are already taking market share from Tesla. Per Figure 2, Tesla’s share of global EV sales fell from 16% in 2019 to 14% in 2021.Tesla’s share of the U.S. EV market fell from 79% in2020to 70% in2021. With light truck sales comprising more than three out of every four vehicles sold in the U.S. in January 2022, Tesla falling behind in truck EVs means its share of the U.S. market could fall further.Figure 2: Tesla’s Share of the Global EV SalesTSLA Market Share Since 2019(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC, EV-volumes.com and StatistaSlow Start to 2022:Though Teslaforecastedan at least 50% YoY rise in deliveries in 2022, the company is feeling the effects of supply chain problems – just like every other automaker. The company delivered 310,000 vehicles in the quarter, while consensus estimates were for 313,000.Reverse DCF Math: Valuation Implies Tesla Will Own at Least 57% of the Global Passenger EV MarketDespite the increased competition, failure to meet delivery expectations, and diminutive share of the global EV market in 2021, Tesla’s valuation implies the company will own 57% of the global passenger EV market in 2030.Even if Tesla increases the average selling price (ASP) per vehicle to $55K vs. ($49K in 2021), Tesla’s stock price at ~$1,100/share implies the firm will sell 15 million vehicles in 2030 versus ~936k in 2021. That figure represents 57% of the projected base case global EV passenger vehicle market in 2030 and the implied vehicle sales based on a lower ASP looks even more unrealistic.To provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations reflected in Tesla’s stock price, we assume Tesla achieves profit margins 1.5x Toyota Motor Corp (TM) and triples its current auto manufacturing efficiency.Per Figure 3, an $1,100/share price implies that, in 2030, Tesla will sell the following number of vehicles based on these ASP benchmarks:15 million vehicles – ASP of $55K (above average U.S. new car price of $47K in 2021)7 million vehicles – ASP of $49K (equal to Tesla’s 2021 ASP[1])21 million vehicles – ASP of $38K (equal to General Motors’ ASP[2] of $38K in 2021)If Tesla achieves those EV sales, the implied market share for the company would be the following (assuming global passenger EV sales reach 26 million in 2030, the base case projection from the IEA):57% for 15 million vehicles64% for 17 million vehicles83% for 21 million vehiclesIf we assume the IEA’s best case for global passenger EV sales in 2030, 47 million vehicles, the above vehicle sales represent:31% for 15 million vehicles35% for 17 million vehicles45% for 21 million vehiclesFigure 3: Tesla’s Implied Vehicle Sales in 2030 to Justify $1,100/ShareTSLA DCF Implied Vehicle Production(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filingsTesla Must Generate More Profits Than Apple For Investors to Make MoneyBelow are the assumptions we use in our reverse discounted cash flow model to calculate the implied production levels above.Bulls should understand what Tesla needs to accomplish to justify ~$1,100/share:immediately achieve a 14% NOPAT margin (1.5x Toyota’s margin, which is the highest of the large-scale automakers we cover), compared to Tesla’s TTM margin of 8%) andgrow revenue by 32% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.In this scenario, Tesla generates $811 billion in revenue in 2030, which is 116% of the combined revenues of Toyota, Stellantis (STLA), Ford, General Motors, and Honda (HMC) over the past twelve months. Tesla must replace the U.S. auto industry before 2030 to justify current valuations.This scenario also implies Tesla grows net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) by 2,458% from 2021 to 2030. In this scenario, Tesla generates $112 billion in NOPAT in 2030, or 12% higher than Apple’s (AAPL) TTM NOPAT, which, at $100 billion, is the highest of all companies we cover, and 65% higher than Microsoft (MSFT), the second-highest. Those companies have intertwined themselves in the lives of consumers and businesses around the world, which seems an unlikely feat for Tesla at this point.TSLA Has 46% Downside If Morgan Stanley Is Right About SalesIf we assume Tesla reaches Morgan Stanley’s estimate of selling 8.1 million cars in 2030 (which implies a 31% share of the global passenger EV market in 2030), at an ASP of $55k, the stock is worth just $542/share. Details:NOPAT margin improves to 14% andrevenue grows 27% compounded annually over the next decade, thenthe stock is worth just $547/share today – a 46% downside to the current price. See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario. In this scenario, Tesla grows NOPAT to $62 billion, or nearly 14x its 2021 NOPAT, and just 7% below Alphabet’s (GOOGL) 2021 NOPAT.TSLA Has 80%+ Downside Even with 27% Market Share and Realistic MarginsIf we estimate more reasonable (but still very optimistic) margins and market share achievements for Tesla, the stock is worth just $200/share. Here’s the math:NOPAT margin improves to 9% (equal to Toyota’s TTM margin) andrevenue grows by consensus estimates from 2022 to 2024 andrevenue grows 17% a year from 2025 to 2030, thenthe stock is worth just $200/share today – an 80% downside to the current price.In this scenario, Tesla sells 7 million cars (27% of the global passenger EV market in 2030) at an ASP of $47K (average new car price in U.S. in 2021) and grows NOPAT by 24% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.We also assume a more realistic NOPAT margin of 9% in this scenario, which is 1.3x higher than Toyota’s industry-leading five-year average NOPAT margin of 7%. Given the required capital requirements to fund manufacturing and match increased competition in the EV market, Tesla is unlikely to achieve and sustain a margin as high as 9% from 2022 to 2030. If Tesla fails to meet these expectations, then the stock is worth less than $200/share.Figure 4 compares the firm’s historical NOPAT to the NOPAT implied in the above scenarios to illustrate just how high the expectations baked into Tesla’s stock price remain. For additional context, we show Toyota’s, General Motors’, and Apple’s TTM NOPAT.Figure 4: Tesla’s Historical and Implied NOPAT: DCF Valuation ScenariosTSLA DCF Implied NOPAT(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filingsEach of the above scenarios assumes Tesla’s invested capital grows 14% compounded annually through 2030. For reference, Tesla’s invested capital grew 49% compounded annually from 2011 to 2021 and 30% compounded annually since 2015.An invested capital CAGR of 14% represents 1/3rdthe CAGR of Tesla’s property, plant, and equipment since 2011 and assumes the company can build future plants and produce cars 3x more efficiently than it has so far.In other words, we aim to provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations for future market share and profits reflected in Tesla’s stock market valuation.Tesla Won’t Be the Only One to FallOther meme stocks have taken pages from the Musk playbook and will likely suffer the same fate we expect Tesla to suffer once the game is up. GameStop (GME) promised to transform itself into an ecommerce powerhouse, yet the company continues to head in the opposite direction and earnings continue to disappoint. GameStop’s Core Earnings fell from -$200 million in fiscal 2021 to -$321 million in fiscal 2022.Despite the company’s inability to quickly execute operational change, GameStop’s stock has remained well above a reasonable valuation thanks in part to announcing the launch of a marketplace for nonfungible tokens (NFTs) and partnerships with blockchain firms.AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) has also run several Tesla-esque plays to prop up its stock. Indeed, the company’s CEO recently tweeted that the company is “playing on offense again” with its investment in a microcap gold mine. Before gold mines, the company got on the crypto bandwagon in 2021 by accepting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Litecoin.Beyond the repeated attempts at propping up their stocks, the fundamentally weak business models of Tesla, GameStop, and AMC Entertainment in highly competitive industries burn cash and continue to dilute shareholders whenever possible. Per Figure 5, despite combining for more than $1.1 trillion of market cap, Tesla, AMC Entertainment, and GameStop have a combined economic book value, our measure of the no growth value of a stock, of -$52 billion and -$4.3 billion of free cash flow over the past twelve months.Figure 5: Meme Stock’s Market Cap, Economic Book Value & FCF: TTMMeme Stocks Market Cap, Economic Book Value, FCF(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filingsThis article originally published on April 14, 2022.Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, and Matt Shuler receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector, style, or theme.[1] Tesla’s ASP = (total automotive revenues – regulatory credits) / deliveries[2] General Motors’ ASP = Vehicle, parts and accessories / wholesale vehicle sales","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3562670436095987","authorId":"3562670436095987","name":"hakunaurtata","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5631ba6526d1730e263ae54c0eab70e9","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3562670436095987","idStr":"3562670436095987"},"content":"some of seekingalpha's articles are becoming more negative on Tesla, really makes one think if there's any insidious intent behind their articles...","text":"some of seekingalpha's articles are becoming more negative on Tesla, really makes one think if there's any insidious intent behind their articles...","html":"some of seekingalpha's articles are becoming more negative on Tesla, really makes one think if there's any insidious intent behind their articles..."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881588089,"gmtCreate":1631363370841,"gmtModify":1676530535835,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This is totally very possible.","listText":"This is totally very possible.","text":"This is totally very possible.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/881588089","repostId":"1170700790","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":113,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9090289088,"gmtCreate":1643196340144,"gmtModify":1676533784009,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"16 Mar then.","listText":"16 Mar then.","text":"16 Mar then.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090289088","repostId":"1107872846","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107872846","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1643190439,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1107872846?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-26 17:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"FOMC Preview：Fed Not Expected to Raise Interest Rates This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107872846","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"All eyes are currently on the Fed, which is releasing its monetary policy decision Wednesday. Market","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>All eyes are currently on the Fed, which is releasing its monetary policy decision Wednesday. Markets are anticipating several interest rate increases this year, but will be hanging on the words of Fed Chair Jerome Powell to see just how many.</p><p>The FOMC decision is due at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.</p><p><b>Anticipation:</b></p><p>Anticipation over a pullback in Federal Reserve stimulus has markets rolling, setting the stage for what could be a pivotal central bank policy-setting meeting this week.</p><p>Although the Fed has signaled it will very likely raise rates multiple times this year, the first post-COVID rate increase is not expected this week. Instead, the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee will likely tease higher rates coming in its March meeting.</p><p>“It really is time for us to begin to move away from those emergency pandemic settings to a more normal level,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress two weeks ago, adding that “2022 will be the year in which we take steps toward normalization.”</p><p>Moving away from those settings would involve raising the federal funds rate, the benchmark for short-term borrowing costs that the Federal Open Market Committee sets every six weeks. That rate has been set at near zero since the depths of the pandemic.</p><p>Raising those rates, also referred to as “tightening policy,” could dampen the rapid pace of inflation felt by Americans across the board.</p><p>“March is a live meeting for the first rate hike,” said Fed Governor Christopher Waller in December.</p><p>Directionally, nearly all members of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee have suggested they favor using higher rates to bring inflation down (even the more “dovish” officials who have historically pushed back against tighter policy options). But there is considerable uncertainty about how aggressively they would do so.</p><p>For example, betting markets show the largest probability — about 31% — for four interest rate increases (25 basis points each) by the end of this year. But those same markets are pricing in decent odds of the Fed tightening a little bit slower (three rate hikes: 26% chance) as they are for the Fed tightening a little bit faster (five rate hikes: 20% chance).</p><p>Either way, the Fed is making it clear that come the March meeting, FOMC decision days that follow are all fair game for more tightening.</p><p><b>Market Views:</b></p><p>“We see a risk that the FOMC will want to take some tightening action at every meeting until that picture changes,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote on Friday.</p><p>With prices rising at a pace not seen in nearly 40 years, the Fed may have opted to raise rates this week if it were not for one reason: its $9 trillion balance sheet.</p><p>The Fed is still in the process of bringing its pandemic-era policy of growing its massive balance sheet to a full stop. In December, the FOMC charted a course for ending its purchases of U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities (aimed at messaging to markets its intention to keep borrowing costs low) by mid-March.</p><p>Raising interest rates while the Fed is still buying bonds could send mixed messages to markets, which is why Fed officials have made it clear they would not raise interest rates until that process is done.</p><p>As the Fed raises interest rates, the FOMC will then likely turn its attention to actively shrinking its balance sheet — by allowing maturing securities to roll off of its books.</p><p>“We probably will decide to start reducing the balance sheet sooner rather than later,” Chicago Fed President Charles Evans told reporters on Jan. 13.</p><p>Doing so could allow the Fed to quell inflation with fewer rate hikes, since shrinking its asset holdings should have the effect of tilting higher longer-term interest rates (which it does not directly control as well as short-term rates).</p><p>The conversation over how to handle any balance sheet runoff will likely pick up steam in this week’s meeting.</p><p><b>Market Snapshot</b></p><p>At 04:46 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 364 points, or 1.06%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 60.75 points, or 1.40%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 294.50 points, or 2.08%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6daf636636fcead334fc0cd35746e9a2\" tg-width=\"372\" tg-height=\"159\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>FOMC Preview：Fed Not Expected to Raise Interest Rates This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFOMC Preview：Fed Not Expected to Raise Interest Rates This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-26 17:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>All eyes are currently on the Fed, which is releasing its monetary policy decision Wednesday. Markets are anticipating several interest rate increases this year, but will be hanging on the words of Fed Chair Jerome Powell to see just how many.</p><p>The FOMC decision is due at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.</p><p><b>Anticipation:</b></p><p>Anticipation over a pullback in Federal Reserve stimulus has markets rolling, setting the stage for what could be a pivotal central bank policy-setting meeting this week.</p><p>Although the Fed has signaled it will very likely raise rates multiple times this year, the first post-COVID rate increase is not expected this week. Instead, the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee will likely tease higher rates coming in its March meeting.</p><p>“It really is time for us to begin to move away from those emergency pandemic settings to a more normal level,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress two weeks ago, adding that “2022 will be the year in which we take steps toward normalization.”</p><p>Moving away from those settings would involve raising the federal funds rate, the benchmark for short-term borrowing costs that the Federal Open Market Committee sets every six weeks. That rate has been set at near zero since the depths of the pandemic.</p><p>Raising those rates, also referred to as “tightening policy,” could dampen the rapid pace of inflation felt by Americans across the board.</p><p>“March is a live meeting for the first rate hike,” said Fed Governor Christopher Waller in December.</p><p>Directionally, nearly all members of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee have suggested they favor using higher rates to bring inflation down (even the more “dovish” officials who have historically pushed back against tighter policy options). But there is considerable uncertainty about how aggressively they would do so.</p><p>For example, betting markets show the largest probability — about 31% — for four interest rate increases (25 basis points each) by the end of this year. But those same markets are pricing in decent odds of the Fed tightening a little bit slower (three rate hikes: 26% chance) as they are for the Fed tightening a little bit faster (five rate hikes: 20% chance).</p><p>Either way, the Fed is making it clear that come the March meeting, FOMC decision days that follow are all fair game for more tightening.</p><p><b>Market Views:</b></p><p>“We see a risk that the FOMC will want to take some tightening action at every meeting until that picture changes,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote on Friday.</p><p>With prices rising at a pace not seen in nearly 40 years, the Fed may have opted to raise rates this week if it were not for one reason: its $9 trillion balance sheet.</p><p>The Fed is still in the process of bringing its pandemic-era policy of growing its massive balance sheet to a full stop. In December, the FOMC charted a course for ending its purchases of U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities (aimed at messaging to markets its intention to keep borrowing costs low) by mid-March.</p><p>Raising interest rates while the Fed is still buying bonds could send mixed messages to markets, which is why Fed officials have made it clear they would not raise interest rates until that process is done.</p><p>As the Fed raises interest rates, the FOMC will then likely turn its attention to actively shrinking its balance sheet — by allowing maturing securities to roll off of its books.</p><p>“We probably will decide to start reducing the balance sheet sooner rather than later,” Chicago Fed President Charles Evans told reporters on Jan. 13.</p><p>Doing so could allow the Fed to quell inflation with fewer rate hikes, since shrinking its asset holdings should have the effect of tilting higher longer-term interest rates (which it does not directly control as well as short-term rates).</p><p>The conversation over how to handle any balance sheet runoff will likely pick up steam in this week’s meeting.</p><p><b>Market Snapshot</b></p><p>At 04:46 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 364 points, or 1.06%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 60.75 points, or 1.40%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 294.50 points, or 2.08%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6daf636636fcead334fc0cd35746e9a2\" tg-width=\"372\" tg-height=\"159\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107872846","content_text":"All eyes are currently on the Fed, which is releasing its monetary policy decision Wednesday. Markets are anticipating several interest rate increases this year, but will be hanging on the words of Fed Chair Jerome Powell to see just how many.The FOMC decision is due at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.Anticipation:Anticipation over a pullback in Federal Reserve stimulus has markets rolling, setting the stage for what could be a pivotal central bank policy-setting meeting this week.Although the Fed has signaled it will very likely raise rates multiple times this year, the first post-COVID rate increase is not expected this week. Instead, the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee will likely tease higher rates coming in its March meeting.“It really is time for us to begin to move away from those emergency pandemic settings to a more normal level,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress two weeks ago, adding that “2022 will be the year in which we take steps toward normalization.”Moving away from those settings would involve raising the federal funds rate, the benchmark for short-term borrowing costs that the Federal Open Market Committee sets every six weeks. That rate has been set at near zero since the depths of the pandemic.Raising those rates, also referred to as “tightening policy,” could dampen the rapid pace of inflation felt by Americans across the board.“March is a live meeting for the first rate hike,” said Fed Governor Christopher Waller in December.Directionally, nearly all members of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee have suggested they favor using higher rates to bring inflation down (even the more “dovish” officials who have historically pushed back against tighter policy options). But there is considerable uncertainty about how aggressively they would do so.For example, betting markets show the largest probability — about 31% — for four interest rate increases (25 basis points each) by the end of this year. But those same markets are pricing in decent odds of the Fed tightening a little bit slower (three rate hikes: 26% chance) as they are for the Fed tightening a little bit faster (five rate hikes: 20% chance).Either way, the Fed is making it clear that come the March meeting, FOMC decision days that follow are all fair game for more tightening.Market Views:“We see a risk that the FOMC will want to take some tightening action at every meeting until that picture changes,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote on Friday.With prices rising at a pace not seen in nearly 40 years, the Fed may have opted to raise rates this week if it were not for one reason: its $9 trillion balance sheet.The Fed is still in the process of bringing its pandemic-era policy of growing its massive balance sheet to a full stop. In December, the FOMC charted a course for ending its purchases of U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities (aimed at messaging to markets its intention to keep borrowing costs low) by mid-March.Raising interest rates while the Fed is still buying bonds could send mixed messages to markets, which is why Fed officials have made it clear they would not raise interest rates until that process is done.As the Fed raises interest rates, the FOMC will then likely turn its attention to actively shrinking its balance sheet — by allowing maturing securities to roll off of its books.“We probably will decide to start reducing the balance sheet sooner rather than later,” Chicago Fed President Charles Evans told reporters on Jan. 13.Doing so could allow the Fed to quell inflation with fewer rate hikes, since shrinking its asset holdings should have the effect of tilting higher longer-term interest rates (which it does not directly control as well as short-term rates).The conversation over how to handle any balance sheet runoff will likely pick up steam in this week’s meeting.Market SnapshotAt 04:46 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 364 points, or 1.06%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 60.75 points, or 1.40%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 294.50 points, or 2.08%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814374704,"gmtCreate":1630774223808,"gmtModify":1676530393355,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice article. Not all hedge funds and shortists are bad actually.&nbsp;","listText":"Nice article. Not all hedge funds and shortists are bad actually.&nbsp;","text":"Nice article. Not all hedge funds and shortists are bad actually.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/814374704","repostId":"1189766406","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171284518,"gmtCreate":1626746465434,"gmtModify":1703764344731,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sometimes, those fund managers&nbsp;who are bearish about the situations, are the first ones to start buying in.&nbsp;","listText":"Sometimes, those fund managers&nbsp;who are bearish about the situations, are the first ones to start buying in.&nbsp;","text":"Sometimes, those fund managers who are bearish about the situations, are the first ones to start buying in.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171284518","repostId":"1118132702","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118132702","pubTimestamp":1626743585,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118132702?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-20 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"David Tice Turns Bearish On Bitcoin And Big Tech: It's Very Dangerous To Hold Today","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118132702","media":"Benzinga","summary":"What Happened:Fund manager David Tice is bearish on the current outlook for both equity markets and ","content":"<p><b>What Happened:</b>Fund manager David Tice is bearish on the current outlook for both equity markets and crypto.</p>\n<p>In an interview withCNBC, Tice cautioned investors to be wary of their&nbsp;<b>Bitcoin</b>&nbsp;holdings, calling the current market&nbsp;\"dangerous.\"</p>\n<p>“We had a bitcoin position when bitcoin was at $10,000,” Tice said. “However, when it got to $60,000 we felt like that was long in the tooth… Lately, there’s been a lot more uproar from central bankers, Bank for International Settlements [and] the Bank of England have made profound negative statements. I think it’s very dangerous to hold today.”</p>\n<p>Tice isn’t convinced that equity markets will hold up either and stated that he thinks a “market meltdown is unavoidable.”</p>\n<p>In his view, Big Tech stocks like&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a> Inc</b>&nbsp;,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> Inc</b>&nbsp;,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a> Inc</b>,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> Inc</b>, and&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc</b>&nbsp;are overvalued.</p>\n<p>“A lot of money has been thrown at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Alphabet</a> and&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>, Apple and Facebook,&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a>, etc.,” he said. “Costs are going up in that sector.”</p>\n<p><b>Why It Matters:</b>Tice is not the only fund manager to present his bearish outlook on crypto markets this month.</p>\n<p>Last week, famous gold bull Jeffrey Gundlach toldCNBCthat the Bitcoin chart “looks pretty scary here.”</p>\n<p>However, Gundlach noted that a buying opportunity under $23,000 could present itself to those who weren’t phased by the cryptocurrency’s extreme volatility.</p>\n<p><b>Price Action:</b>At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $31,300, down 1.42% over the past 24-hours.</p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>David Tice Turns Bearish On Bitcoin And Big Tech: It's Very Dangerous To Hold Today</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDavid Tice Turns Bearish On Bitcoin And Big Tech: It's Very Dangerous To Hold Today\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-20 09:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/07/22037804/david-tice-turns-bearish-on-bitcoin-and-big-tech-its-very-dangerous-to-hold-today><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>What Happened:Fund manager David Tice is bearish on the current outlook for both equity markets and crypto.\nIn an interview withCNBC, Tice cautioned investors to be wary of their Bitcoin holdings, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/07/22037804/david-tice-turns-bearish-on-bitcoin-and-big-tech-its-very-dangerous-to-hold-today\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞","AAPL":"苹果","GOOG":"谷歌","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/07/22037804/david-tice-turns-bearish-on-bitcoin-and-big-tech-its-very-dangerous-to-hold-today","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118132702","content_text":"What Happened:Fund manager David Tice is bearish on the current outlook for both equity markets and crypto.\nIn an interview withCNBC, Tice cautioned investors to be wary of their Bitcoin holdings, calling the current market \"dangerous.\"\n“We had a bitcoin position when bitcoin was at $10,000,” Tice said. “However, when it got to $60,000 we felt like that was long in the tooth… Lately, there’s been a lot more uproar from central bankers, Bank for International Settlements [and] the Bank of England have made profound negative statements. I think it’s very dangerous to hold today.”\nTice isn’t convinced that equity markets will hold up either and stated that he thinks a “market meltdown is unavoidable.”\nIn his view, Big Tech stocks like Facebook Inc ,Apple Inc ,Amazon.com Inc,Netflix Inc, and Alphabet Inc are overvalued.\n“A lot of money has been thrown at Alphabet and Microsoft, Apple and Facebook, Twitter, etc.,” he said. “Costs are going up in that sector.”\nWhy It Matters:Tice is not the only fund manager to present his bearish outlook on crypto markets this month.\nLast week, famous gold bull Jeffrey Gundlach toldCNBCthat the Bitcoin chart “looks pretty scary here.”\nHowever, Gundlach noted that a buying opportunity under $23,000 could present itself to those who weren’t phased by the cryptocurrency’s extreme volatility.\nPrice Action:At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $31,300, down 1.42% over the past 24-hours.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":34,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168638242,"gmtCreate":1623973549586,"gmtModify":1703824945347,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great! Prove to the world that big caps are still capable of great growth!","listText":"Great! Prove to the world that big caps are still capable of great growth!","text":"Great! Prove to the world that big caps are still capable of great growth!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168638242","repostId":"1140460323","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140460323","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1623973344,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140460323?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 07:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Apple Stock Looks Ready To Break Out In The Weeks Ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140460323","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Apple Inc. shares were trading higher Thursday after the Federal Reserve held its rates constant but raised its inflation expectations for the years 2021-2023.Seven Fed officials expect increases in rates in 2022, and 13 officials expect rate increases in 2023.Apple was up 1.26% at the close Thursday at $131.79.Since September 2020, shares have been forming into what technical traders call an ascending triangle pattern.The stock is trading above both the 50-day moving average , and the 200-day m","content":"<p><b>Apple Inc.</b>&nbsp;shares were trading higher Thursday after the Federal Reserve held its rates constant&nbsp;but raised its inflation expectations for the years 2021-2023.</p>\n<p>Seven Fed officials expect increases in rates in 2022, and 13 officials expect rate increases in 2023.</p>\n<p>Apple was up 1.26% at the close Thursday at $131.79.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8d456ee2529c0bc9444bb9ad8601434\" tg-width=\"2124\" tg-height=\"1304\"></p>\n<p><b>Apple Daily Chart Analysis</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Since September 2020, shares have been forming into what technical traders call an ascending triangle pattern.</li>\n <li>The stock is trading above both the 50-day moving average (green), and the 200-day moving average (blue), indicating sentiment in the stock is bullish.</li>\n <li>Each of these moving averages may hold as an area of support in the future.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Key Apple Levels To Watch</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Last week, the stock was able to bounce off support at the higher low trendline. The shares continue to form an ascending triangle pattern and could see a break out of the pattern in the&nbsp;weeks ahead.</li>\n <li>The higher low trendline has acted as support since September 2020 and may again in the future.</li>\n <li>The stock has been building up to a potential resistance mark near $140, as this was an area where the stock previously struggled to cross above.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>What’s Next For Apple?</b></p>\n<p>Bullish technical traders would like to see the stock continue to build higher lows and hold above the higher low trendline. Bulls would also like to see the stock cross above the $140 resistance level with a period of consolidation above the level.</p>\n<p>Bearish technical traders would like to see the stock cross below the higher low trendline for a possible trend change. If the stock can cross below the moving averages, sentiment may turn bearish and the stock may see a strong downward&nbsp;push.</p>\n<p>Apple Inc. is a top holding in the following ETFs:<b>Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund</b>,<b>Fidelity MSCI Information Technology Index ETF</b>,<b>Vanguard Information Technology ETF</b>,<b>ishares U.S. Technology ETF</b>,<b>Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares</b>.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Apple Stock Looks Ready To Break Out In The Weeks Ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Apple Stock Looks Ready To Break Out In The Weeks Ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-18 07:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Apple Inc.</b>&nbsp;shares were trading higher Thursday after the Federal Reserve held its rates constant&nbsp;but raised its inflation expectations for the years 2021-2023.</p>\n<p>Seven Fed officials expect increases in rates in 2022, and 13 officials expect rate increases in 2023.</p>\n<p>Apple was up 1.26% at the close Thursday at $131.79.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8d456ee2529c0bc9444bb9ad8601434\" tg-width=\"2124\" tg-height=\"1304\"></p>\n<p><b>Apple Daily Chart Analysis</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Since September 2020, shares have been forming into what technical traders call an ascending triangle pattern.</li>\n <li>The stock is trading above both the 50-day moving average (green), and the 200-day moving average (blue), indicating sentiment in the stock is bullish.</li>\n <li>Each of these moving averages may hold as an area of support in the future.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Key Apple Levels To Watch</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Last week, the stock was able to bounce off support at the higher low trendline. The shares continue to form an ascending triangle pattern and could see a break out of the pattern in the&nbsp;weeks ahead.</li>\n <li>The higher low trendline has acted as support since September 2020 and may again in the future.</li>\n <li>The stock has been building up to a potential resistance mark near $140, as this was an area where the stock previously struggled to cross above.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>What’s Next For Apple?</b></p>\n<p>Bullish technical traders would like to see the stock continue to build higher lows and hold above the higher low trendline. Bulls would also like to see the stock cross above the $140 resistance level with a period of consolidation above the level.</p>\n<p>Bearish technical traders would like to see the stock cross below the higher low trendline for a possible trend change. If the stock can cross below the moving averages, sentiment may turn bearish and the stock may see a strong downward&nbsp;push.</p>\n<p>Apple Inc. is a top holding in the following ETFs:<b>Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund</b>,<b>Fidelity MSCI Information Technology Index ETF</b>,<b>Vanguard Information Technology ETF</b>,<b>ishares U.S. Technology ETF</b>,<b>Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares</b>.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140460323","content_text":"Apple Inc. shares were trading higher Thursday after the Federal Reserve held its rates constant but raised its inflation expectations for the years 2021-2023.\nSeven Fed officials expect increases in rates in 2022, and 13 officials expect rate increases in 2023.\nApple was up 1.26% at the close Thursday at $131.79.\n\nApple Daily Chart Analysis\n\nSince September 2020, shares have been forming into what technical traders call an ascending triangle pattern.\nThe stock is trading above both the 50-day moving average (green), and the 200-day moving average (blue), indicating sentiment in the stock is bullish.\nEach of these moving averages may hold as an area of support in the future.\n\nKey Apple Levels To Watch\n\nLast week, the stock was able to bounce off support at the higher low trendline. The shares continue to form an ascending triangle pattern and could see a break out of the pattern in the weeks ahead.\nThe higher low trendline has acted as support since September 2020 and may again in the future.\nThe stock has been building up to a potential resistance mark near $140, as this was an area where the stock previously struggled to cross above.\n\nWhat’s Next For Apple?\nBullish technical traders would like to see the stock continue to build higher lows and hold above the higher low trendline. Bulls would also like to see the stock cross above the $140 resistance level with a period of consolidation above the level.\nBearish technical traders would like to see the stock cross below the higher low trendline for a possible trend change. If the stock can cross below the moving averages, sentiment may turn bearish and the stock may see a strong downward push.\nApple Inc. is a top holding in the following ETFs:Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund,Fidelity MSCI Information Technology Index ETF,Vanguard Information Technology ETF,ishares U.S. Technology ETF,Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810126915,"gmtCreate":1629954296837,"gmtModify":1676530183182,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes, to the moon pls.","listText":"Yes, to the moon pls.","text":"Yes, to the moon pls.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/810126915","repostId":"1197918153","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197918153","pubTimestamp":1629948466,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197918153?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-26 11:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Stock: Running Of The Bulls Knocks Short Sellers Down","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197918153","media":"Thestreet","summary":"The August 24 trading session provided AMC stock (AMC) -Get Report owners with reasons to be optimis","content":"<p>The August 24 trading session provided AMC stock&nbsp;(<b>AMC</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;owners with reasons to be optimistic about a run towards new peaks. Possibly motivated by broad market movements that were also positive, AMC surged 20% and finally broke into the $40 levels once again.</p>\n<p>Not yet satisfied, ambitious apes still believe that the recent move in AMC is just the tip of the iceberg, and that the path to the moon is gradually being paved. Wall Street Memes reviews AMC stock’s recent performance.</p>\n<h3>Broad market strength</h3>\n<p>The US stock market had a record-breaking dayon August 24. In a week marked by chatter around monetary policy and the Jackson Hole symposium, vaccine approval news and the Chinese market’s retraction helped to fuel the market’s euphoria in the US.</p>\n<p>AMC trading volume reached about 220 million shares on August 24, more than double the average 10-day metric.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1cc490ca24ca006f0cad2c9b785eb27\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"595\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: AMC historical data and trading volume.</span></p>\n<h3>Bullish drivers</h3>\n<p>AMC’s popularity across the main online discussion boards remains at peak levels. The top meme stock’s performance mirrored WallStreetBets’ commentary volume, although correlation does not necessarily mean causation.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81369ea6c61e3992aad71b0bb2d24e20\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"609\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: WSB ticker sentiment - AMC.Swaggy Stocks</span></p>\n<p>Short interest remains elevated and on the rise, at around 18% according to&nbsp;Yahoo Finance.&nbsp;Also, Wall Street analysts' bearishness towards the stock has served as fuel for defying AMC apes in their quest to squeeze short sellers out.</p>\n<p>The company’s recent financial performance may also be playing a role in stock price action. The&nbsp;above-expectations Q2 earnings report, which pointed at a scenario of post-pandemic recovery for AMC, reinforces the fundamentalist thesis. Keep in mind, however, that meme mania has much more to do with momentum and market dynamics than with business fundamentals.</p>\n<h3>SEC looking closely at dark pools</h3>\n<p>One of the biggest complaints and concerns of AMC shareholders is the lack of transparency in the market. There seems to be a consensus among the ape community that dark pool activities and naked short selling could be hampering AMC's ride to new highs.</p>\n<p>Recently, SEC Chair Gay Genslerspoke directly on the matter, stating that the agency is looking closely at dark pool activities&nbsp;to protect investors. While no firm action has been taken yet, the SEC’s willingness to address the issue can be seen as positive news.</p>\n<h3>Short sellers get slapped</h3>\n<p>With over 92 million AMC shares currently shorted, sellers have racked up billions of dollars in losses since meme mania emerged. The latest data&nbsp;provided&nbsp;by third-party research reveals that, as of July 20, shorts had incurred year-to-date losses of $3.8 billion.</p>\n<p>Short seller losses are probably even higher now, since AMC stock has spiked 20% in August alone. Amid a new wave of optimism, bears might be playing with fire. How long will they withstand the upward pressures? Apes’ bet: not very long.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Stock: Running Of The Bulls Knocks Short Sellers Down</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Stock: Running Of The Bulls Knocks Short Sellers Down\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-26 11:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/memestocks/amc/amc-stock-running-of-the-bulls-knocks-short-sellers-down><strong>Thestreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The August 24 trading session provided AMC stock (AMC) -Get Report owners with reasons to be optimistic about a run towards new peaks. Possibly motivated by broad market movements that were also ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/memestocks/amc/amc-stock-running-of-the-bulls-knocks-short-sellers-down\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/memestocks/amc/amc-stock-running-of-the-bulls-knocks-short-sellers-down","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197918153","content_text":"The August 24 trading session provided AMC stock (AMC) -Get Report owners with reasons to be optimistic about a run towards new peaks. Possibly motivated by broad market movements that were also positive, AMC surged 20% and finally broke into the $40 levels once again.\nNot yet satisfied, ambitious apes still believe that the recent move in AMC is just the tip of the iceberg, and that the path to the moon is gradually being paved. Wall Street Memes reviews AMC stock’s recent performance.\nBroad market strength\nThe US stock market had a record-breaking dayon August 24. In a week marked by chatter around monetary policy and the Jackson Hole symposium, vaccine approval news and the Chinese market’s retraction helped to fuel the market’s euphoria in the US.\nAMC trading volume reached about 220 million shares on August 24, more than double the average 10-day metric.\nFigure 1: AMC historical data and trading volume.\nBullish drivers\nAMC’s popularity across the main online discussion boards remains at peak levels. The top meme stock’s performance mirrored WallStreetBets’ commentary volume, although correlation does not necessarily mean causation.\nFigure 2: WSB ticker sentiment - AMC.Swaggy Stocks\nShort interest remains elevated and on the rise, at around 18% according to Yahoo Finance. Also, Wall Street analysts' bearishness towards the stock has served as fuel for defying AMC apes in their quest to squeeze short sellers out.\nThe company’s recent financial performance may also be playing a role in stock price action. The above-expectations Q2 earnings report, which pointed at a scenario of post-pandemic recovery for AMC, reinforces the fundamentalist thesis. Keep in mind, however, that meme mania has much more to do with momentum and market dynamics than with business fundamentals.\nSEC looking closely at dark pools\nOne of the biggest complaints and concerns of AMC shareholders is the lack of transparency in the market. There seems to be a consensus among the ape community that dark pool activities and naked short selling could be hampering AMC's ride to new highs.\nRecently, SEC Chair Gay Genslerspoke directly on the matter, stating that the agency is looking closely at dark pool activities to protect investors. While no firm action has been taken yet, the SEC’s willingness to address the issue can be seen as positive news.\nShort sellers get slapped\nWith over 92 million AMC shares currently shorted, sellers have racked up billions of dollars in losses since meme mania emerged. The latest data provided by third-party research reveals that, as of July 20, shorts had incurred year-to-date losses of $3.8 billion.\nShort seller losses are probably even higher now, since AMC stock has spiked 20% in August alone. Amid a new wave of optimism, bears might be playing with fire. How long will they withstand the upward pressures? Apes’ bet: not very long.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801557880,"gmtCreate":1627524611240,"gmtModify":1703491649325,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Waiting for AR/VR to get into the picture. NFT ftw.","listText":"Waiting for AR/VR to get into the picture. NFT ftw.","text":"Waiting for AR/VR to get into the picture. NFT ftw.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801557880","repostId":"1171529765","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171529765","pubTimestamp":1627513623,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171529765?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-29 07:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Facebook's slowdown warning hangs over strong ad sales, while Zuckerberg talks 'metaverse'","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171529765","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) -Facebook Inc said on Wednesday it expects revenue growth to “decelerate significantly,” s","content":"<p>(Reuters) -Facebook Inc said on Wednesday it expects revenue growth to “decelerate significantly,” sending the social media giant’s shares down 3.5% in extended trading even as it reported strong ad sales.</p>\n<p>The warning overshadowed the company’s beat on Wall Street estimates for quarterly revenue, bolstered by increased advertising spending as businesses build their digital presence to cater to consumers spending more time and money online.</p>\n<p>Facebook said it expects Apple’s recent update to its iOS operating system to impact its ability to target ads and therefore ad revenue in the third quarter. The iPhone maker’s privacy changes make it harder for apps to track users and restrict advertisers from accessing valuable data for targeting ads.</p>\n<p>The company also announced on Wednesday that it would require anyone working at its U.S. offices to be vaccinated against COVID-19, joining Alphabet Inc and Netflix.</p>\n<p>Monthly active users came in at 2.90 billion, up 7% from the same period last year but missing analyst expectations of 2.92 billion and marking the slowest growth rate in at least three years, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p>\n<p>“The user growth slowdown is notable and highlights the engagement challenges as the world opens up. But importantly, Facebook is the most exposed to Apple’s privacy changes, and it looks like it is starting to have an impact to the outlook beginning in 3Q,” said Ygal Arounian, an analyst at Wedbush Securities.</p>\n<p>Brian Wieser, GroupM’s global president of business intelligence, said all social media companies would see slower growth in the second half of the year and that it would take more concrete warnings about activity in June and July for anyone to anticipate a “meaningful deceleration.”</p>\n<p>Facebook’s total revenue, which primarily consists of ad sales, rose about 56% to $29.08 billion in the second quarter from $18.69 billion a year earlier, beating analysts’ estimates, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p>\n<p>Its revenue from advertising rose 56% to $28.58 billion in the second quarter ended June 30, Facebook said. It pointed to a 47% increase in price per ad.</p>\n<p>“In the third and fourth quarters of 2021, we expect year-over-year total revenue growth rates to decelerate significantly on a sequential basis as we lap periods of increasingly strong growth,” Chief Financial Officer Dave Wehner said in the earnings release.</p>\n<p>Net income in the second quarter more than doubled to $10.4 billion, or $3.61 per share. Analysts had expected a profit of $3.03 per share.</p>\n<p>The world’s largest social network has been ramping up its ecommerce efforts, which are expected to bring additional revenue to the company and make its ad inventory more valuable. The push will be key to how Facebook, which hosts more than 1 million online “Shops” on its main app and Instagram, can grow its ad business amid the impact of Apple’s changes.</p>\n<p>It is also on the offensive to attract top social media personalities and their fans, competing with Alphabet’s YouTube and short-video app TikTok, which recently hit 3 billion global downloads. Facebook said this month it would invest more than $1 billion to support content creators through the end of 2022.</p>\n<p>On a conference call with analysts, CEO Mark Zuckerberg also focused on another ambition for the company: the “metaverse.”</p>\n<p>Zuckerberg this week announced that Facebook, which has invested heavily in virtual reality and augmented reality, was setting up a team to work on building a shared digital world, which he is betting will be the successor to the mobile internet. Microsoft also dropped the buzzy Silicon Valley term on its earnings call this week, talking about its own plans for the converging digital and physical worlds.</p>\n<p>“Facebook has its eye on a sci-fi prize,” said Sophie Lund-Yates, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. “This is little more than an ambition for Facebook at the moment...if the idea comes to fruition, it could be a valuable income source.”</p>\n<p>The company also continues to face pressure from global lawmakers and regulators, including from the U.S. Federal Trade Commission which has until Aug. 19 to refile its antitrust complaint against the company and from a group of states who said on Wednesday they would appeal the judge’s dismissal of their lawsuit. Facebook’s market cap hit $1 trillion for the first time last month when the judge threw out the original complaints.</p>\n<p>The company, which has long been under fire from lawmakers over misinformation and other abuses on its apps, has also come under renewed scrutiny from President Joe Biden’s administration over the handling of false claims about COVID-19. At Facebook’s office in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, a group of critics set up an installation of body bags to protest the issue.</p>","source":"lsy1601381805984","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Facebook's slowdown warning hangs over strong ad sales, while Zuckerberg talks 'metaverse'</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFacebook's slowdown warning hangs over strong ad sales, while Zuckerberg talks 'metaverse'\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-29 07:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.reuters.com/article/facebook-results/update-5-facebooks-slowdown-warning-hangs-over-strong-ad-sales-while-zuckerberg-talks-metaverse-idUSL4N2P43YX><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Reuters) -Facebook Inc said on Wednesday it expects revenue growth to “decelerate significantly,” sending the social media giant’s shares down 3.5% in extended trading even as it reported strong ad ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/facebook-results/update-5-facebooks-slowdown-warning-hangs-over-strong-ad-sales-while-zuckerberg-talks-metaverse-idUSL4N2P43YX\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/facebook-results/update-5-facebooks-slowdown-warning-hangs-over-strong-ad-sales-while-zuckerberg-talks-metaverse-idUSL4N2P43YX","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171529765","content_text":"(Reuters) -Facebook Inc said on Wednesday it expects revenue growth to “decelerate significantly,” sending the social media giant’s shares down 3.5% in extended trading even as it reported strong ad sales.\nThe warning overshadowed the company’s beat on Wall Street estimates for quarterly revenue, bolstered by increased advertising spending as businesses build their digital presence to cater to consumers spending more time and money online.\nFacebook said it expects Apple’s recent update to its iOS operating system to impact its ability to target ads and therefore ad revenue in the third quarter. The iPhone maker’s privacy changes make it harder for apps to track users and restrict advertisers from accessing valuable data for targeting ads.\nThe company also announced on Wednesday that it would require anyone working at its U.S. offices to be vaccinated against COVID-19, joining Alphabet Inc and Netflix.\nMonthly active users came in at 2.90 billion, up 7% from the same period last year but missing analyst expectations of 2.92 billion and marking the slowest growth rate in at least three years, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.\n“The user growth slowdown is notable and highlights the engagement challenges as the world opens up. But importantly, Facebook is the most exposed to Apple’s privacy changes, and it looks like it is starting to have an impact to the outlook beginning in 3Q,” said Ygal Arounian, an analyst at Wedbush Securities.\nBrian Wieser, GroupM’s global president of business intelligence, said all social media companies would see slower growth in the second half of the year and that it would take more concrete warnings about activity in June and July for anyone to anticipate a “meaningful deceleration.”\nFacebook’s total revenue, which primarily consists of ad sales, rose about 56% to $29.08 billion in the second quarter from $18.69 billion a year earlier, beating analysts’ estimates, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.\nIts revenue from advertising rose 56% to $28.58 billion in the second quarter ended June 30, Facebook said. It pointed to a 47% increase in price per ad.\n“In the third and fourth quarters of 2021, we expect year-over-year total revenue growth rates to decelerate significantly on a sequential basis as we lap periods of increasingly strong growth,” Chief Financial Officer Dave Wehner said in the earnings release.\nNet income in the second quarter more than doubled to $10.4 billion, or $3.61 per share. Analysts had expected a profit of $3.03 per share.\nThe world’s largest social network has been ramping up its ecommerce efforts, which are expected to bring additional revenue to the company and make its ad inventory more valuable. The push will be key to how Facebook, which hosts more than 1 million online “Shops” on its main app and Instagram, can grow its ad business amid the impact of Apple’s changes.\nIt is also on the offensive to attract top social media personalities and their fans, competing with Alphabet’s YouTube and short-video app TikTok, which recently hit 3 billion global downloads. Facebook said this month it would invest more than $1 billion to support content creators through the end of 2022.\nOn a conference call with analysts, CEO Mark Zuckerberg also focused on another ambition for the company: the “metaverse.”\nZuckerberg this week announced that Facebook, which has invested heavily in virtual reality and augmented reality, was setting up a team to work on building a shared digital world, which he is betting will be the successor to the mobile internet. Microsoft also dropped the buzzy Silicon Valley term on its earnings call this week, talking about its own plans for the converging digital and physical worlds.\n“Facebook has its eye on a sci-fi prize,” said Sophie Lund-Yates, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. “This is little more than an ambition for Facebook at the moment...if the idea comes to fruition, it could be a valuable income source.”\nThe company also continues to face pressure from global lawmakers and regulators, including from the U.S. Federal Trade Commission which has until Aug. 19 to refile its antitrust complaint against the company and from a group of states who said on Wednesday they would appeal the judge’s dismissal of their lawsuit. Facebook’s market cap hit $1 trillion for the first time last month when the judge threw out the original complaints.\nThe company, which has long been under fire from lawmakers over misinformation and other abuses on its apps, has also come under renewed scrutiny from President Joe Biden’s administration over the handling of false claims about COVID-19. At Facebook’s office in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, a group of critics set up an installation of body bags to protest the issue.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":27,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937692462,"gmtCreate":1663411072056,"gmtModify":1676537267356,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing","listText":"Thanks for sharing","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937692462","repostId":"1129633132","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129633132","pubTimestamp":1663378125,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129633132?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-17 09:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Ethereum Merge Unleashes A Tsunami Of Used Graphics Cards","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129633132","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryEthereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “m","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Ethereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “mining”.</li><li>Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales accounts for Nvidia’s fiscal Q2 results.</li><li>The impact of the Merge on Nvidia’s sales will be, at best, ugly.</li><li>How will the Merge affect Nvidia’s expected RTX 40 series launch?</li><li>Investor takeaways: Will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f531f7b392a181968ec72c4a8f89f8e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>vzphotos/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p>The Ethereum Foundation, which manages the Ether cryptocurrency, has announced completion of what it calls the Merge, whereby validation of new blocks of transactions no longer takes place by &#34;mining&#34;. The millions of high-end graphics cards that are used for this will no longer beneeded for the new &#34;proof-of-stake&#34; approach, so that most of these will likely find their way into the used card market. This will depress demand for new graphics cards just when Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is set to announce its next-generation GeForce 40 series.</p><p><b>Ethereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy consuming &#34;mining&#34;</b></p><p>The transition of Ethereum to proof-of-stake was called the Merge because it involved combining the parallel block chain that was already using proof-of-stake experimentally with the main block chain that was using traditional mining, called proof-of-work. This is shown below in this diagram from the Ethereum Foundation:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4872c823bfeb3e06182d2d3f6ab87879\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Ethereum.org</span></p><p>Mining was really just transaction processing, in which a number of Ethereum transactions would be bundled into a block and encrypted. But the encryption process was made artificially difficult, requiring millions of high end graphics cards in the mining pool to process a block in a reasonable period of time.</p><p>In the new proof-of-stake approach, the artificial difficulty is removed, so that hardware requirements can be met by almost any computer, ending the need for graphics card processing and the attendant energy consumption. Ethereum claims this will reduce energy consumption by 99.95%.</p><p>Some miners may go to work on a &#34;hard fork&#34; of Ethereum, in effect, a secession of the currency into a new one called EthereumPOW. This currency will continue to use proof-of-work, but it&#39;s unclear whether mining this will be profitable.</p><p>Probably, the vast majority of cards will go on the used card market and be sold on venues such as eBay.</p><p><b>Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales</b></p><p>Following Nvidia&#39;s revised guidance for its fiscal 2023 Q2, I realized that I needed to revise my model of Ethereum-related sales of graphics cards. I had published an article detailing the model in July.</p><p>The problem with the model was that it only accounted for sales into the Ethereum mining pool when the pool was adding capacity, i.e., adding new cards to the pool. It worked fine as long as the pool was still growing.</p><p>However, starting in mid-May, the Ethereum mining pool hash rate, a measure of mining capacity, started to decline, as shown in the following chart from BitInfoCharts:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe36f2d53f47c0d7e5cdf964d09c67fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BinInfoCharts</span></p><p>This implied that a substantial number of graphics cards were being removed from the pool. If I assumed that these cards were comparable to current generation Nvidia and AMD (AMD) cards, then it was reasonable to assume that every used card sold was a lost new card sale.</p><p>This turned out to account very well for Nvidia&#39;s fiscal Q2 results, if we assume that a normal quarterly revenue in Nvidia&#39;s Gaming segment is about $2.5 billion. During the Fiscal Q2 conference call, Nvidia specifically claimed that this would be their normal average Gaming segment revenue without crypto. In my spreadsheet calculations, it was easy to calculate the used card effect simply by allowing the change in mining pool cards to go negative, with a negative net revenue for the cards:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8223bcd7d3f44c30f5c60970c616fe0f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>Note that the revenue impact doesn&#39;t only fall on Nvidia, but the timing of Nvidia&#39;s fiscal Q2 lined up better with the fall in Ethereum mining capacity and likely release of cards into the used card market. AMD will likely feel the impact in its Q3 results.</p><p><b>The impact of the Merge on Nvidia&#39;s sales will be, at best, ugly</b></p><p>The model provides a means of anticipating what happens when the Ethereum hash rate effectively goes to zero, post Merge. And it&#39;s not pretty. In an article on August 21, I gave my subscribers a heads-up concerning the impact of the Merge, and I further revised my model results on September 11.</p><p>If we assume that the entire mining pool consists of newer graphics cards released since September 2020 (RTX 30 series for Nvidia), then Nvidia&#39;s RTX 30 series sales for Q3 are completely wiped out, as shown in the spreadsheet calculations extended to Q3:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c00465fed542c67659f55786fcdf366b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>The model deducts the hash rate contribution due to Nvidia Crypto Mining Processors (CMP). These cannot be sold into the used graphics cards market, since they lack display outputs.</p><p>This amounts to assuming that all of the cards used in mining before September 2020 (about when the RTX 30 series launched) were replaced with newer cards. This probably isn&#39;t absolutely correct, and the mining pool has consisted of a mixture of older and newer cards.</p><p>As a lower bound, we can assume that none of the older cards were replaced. These cards would not impact new card sales, since they aren&#39;t comparable to current generation cards. The model can deduct these cards from the calculated revenue impact by simply deducting the pre-September 2020 hash rate of 228.2361 terahash/sec (THASH) for the mining pool:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac0a909d1edae7870adea14e3f987d28\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>So the lost revenue impact for Nvidia looks to be in the range of $2-3 billion, and it probably won&#39;t fall all in Q3 but be distributed over several quarters. The effect of the Merge is to effectively zero out Nvidia&#39;s crypto revenue over time. The revenue made during Ethereum&#39;s mining pool expansion is negated by lost revenue post Merge, with the exception of CMP revenue and revenue from older graphics cards that might still have been in the pool at the time of the Merge.</p><p><b>How will the Merge affect Nvidia&#39;s expected RTX 40 series launch?</b></p><p>Nvidia has been expected to announce its GeForce RTX 40 series cards for some time, and Nvidia posted this announcement on its website:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c5990337b62c49447e21da39a199e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Nvidia</span></p><p>Various tech pundits are claiming that this is the worst time for Nvidia to launch a new generation of gaming graphics cards. One important feature expected of the RTX 40 series is support for PCIE 5.0. This could be important in reducing the impact of the Ethereum Merge.</p><p>The current generation of Nvidia and AMD cards only support PCIE 4.0, the prevailing standard at the time of their introduction in late 2020. PCIE 5.0 will double the communication bandwidth compared to 4.0. It&#39;s not clear how critical that will be to gaming performance, but it should eliminate PCIE as a bottleneck, if it ever was.</p><p>Just as important, new generation CPUs will have to support PCIE 5.0, since the GPU is typically linked directly to the CPU through a built in PCIE 16 lane (x16) interface. This is the preferred architecture for maximum gaming performance, and all modern CPUs provide at least 16 lanes of PCIE for this purpose.</p><p>Intel (INTC) already supports PCIE 5.0 in its latest Alder Lake 12th generation Core series of desktop CPUs. Since Alder Lake launched early this year, there have been no PCIE 5.0 graphics cards to take advantage of the interface, but the current installed base of Alder Lake systems represents a waiting market for the new PCIE 5.0 cards.</p><p>Unfortunately, I don&#39;t have an estimate of Alder Lake sales, so I have no idea what the size of that market might be. Current generation AMD Ryzen 5000 series desktop CPUs only offer PCIE 4.0, but the Ryzen 7000 series has been announced with support for PCIE 5.0, with a launch expected in October. AMD&#39;s next-generation GPUs have only been &#34;teased&#34; but are expected to support PCIE 5.0 as well.</p><p>The performance desktop market (mostly gamers) is moving rapidly to PCIE 5.0, and Nvidia will have, at least for a few months, the only graphics cards that support it. Gamers tend to be early adopters and favor the highest performance technology.</p><p>Since<i>none</i>of the used cards released from the Merge will support PCIE 5.0, this may serve to somewhat isolate the RTX 40 series launch from the impact of the Merge. How much isolation is still unclear.</p><p>Most of the current population of gaming systems will only support PCIE 4.0, so this part of the market would probably not buy RTX 40 series in any case. Most 40 series sales will go into new system builds.</p><p>Certainly, the impact of the Merge will be to weaken sales of the RTX 40 series at launch. However, overall sales in the Gaming segment will probably benefit from the launch. The 40 series launch will give the segment a revenue stream it would not have had otherwise.</p><p><b>Investor takeaways: will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?</b></p><p>Nvidia guided to revenue of $5.9 billion for fiscal Q3 during the Q2 conference call, and this implies revenue in the gaming segment of about $1 billion. Did Nvidia account for the Merge in their guidance?</p><p>When asked specifically about the impact of the Merge, Nvidia management had no comment, and professed an inability to account for the crypto impact. The guidance was claimed to be due to a retail channel inventory glut.</p><p>If Nvidia really wasn&#39;t accounting for the Merge, then almost certainly it will need to restate guidance for Q3. Probably, the RTX 40 series launch will not be enough to provide the roughly $1 billion in Gaming segment revenue.</p><p>In my Nvidia integrated financial model, I&#39;m assuming a $3 billion hit due to the Merge and another $1 billion due to inventory correction. In the model, this is distributed over the next four quarters from fiscal 2023 Q3 to fiscal 2024 Q2, with Gaming segment sales only starting to recover in fiscal 2024 Q3.</p><p>Despite this, I&#39;m still modeling growth in the all-important Data Center segment. Nvidia&#39;s next-generation data center accelerator, the Hopper H100, is testing out to be very impressive and is in production now with deliveries expected by the end of the calendar year.</p><p>Hopper should ensure continued growth in the Data Center segment, and the advent of Grace, Nvidia&#39;s ARM architecture CPU for the data center, should further enhance growth. Data Center growth largely compensates for revenue declines expected in Gaming for this year and next, according to the model:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8026f845d3af92219bdc2bb1bc67be19\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>According to my long-term Discounted Cash Flow model, Nvidia has a fair value of $192. I consider Nvidia&#39;s future to be very bright, despite the impact of crypto in the near term.</p><p>Currently, I have Nvidia rated at Hold, and Nvidia has been a relatively small part of the Rethink Technology portfolio since selling most of my Nvidia shares (at a substantial profit) in April. I&#39;m pretty close to upgrading Nvidia to Buy, but I&#39;m waiting to see if the Merge (and possible guidance restatement) will drive Nvidia&#39;s price even lower.</p><p>Also, I&#39;m waiting to see what Nvidia has to offer in its new 40 series on September 20. Nvidia has consistently set the performance bar in the desktop graphics card market. Most likely, Nvidia is already undervalued.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Ethereum Merge Unleashes A Tsunami Of Used Graphics Cards</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Ethereum Merge Unleashes A Tsunami Of Used Graphics Cards\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-17 09:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541459-nvidia-ethereum-merge-unleashes-tsunami-of-used-graphics-cards?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3AAll%7Csection_asset%3AAnalysis%7Cfirst_level_url%3Asymbol%7Cbutton%3ATitle%7Clock_status%3ANo%7Cline%3A1><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryEthereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “mining”.Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales accounts for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541459-nvidia-ethereum-merge-unleashes-tsunami-of-used-graphics-cards?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3AAll%7Csection_asset%3AAnalysis%7Cfirst_level_url%3Asymbol%7Cbutton%3ATitle%7Clock_status%3ANo%7Cline%3A1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541459-nvidia-ethereum-merge-unleashes-tsunami-of-used-graphics-cards?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3AAll%7Csection_asset%3AAnalysis%7Cfirst_level_url%3Asymbol%7Cbutton%3ATitle%7Clock_status%3ANo%7Cline%3A1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129633132","content_text":"SummaryEthereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “mining”.Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales accounts for Nvidia’s fiscal Q2 results.The impact of the Merge on Nvidia’s sales will be, at best, ugly.How will the Merge affect Nvidia’s expected RTX 40 series launch?Investor takeaways: Will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?vzphotos/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesThe Ethereum Foundation, which manages the Ether cryptocurrency, has announced completion of what it calls the Merge, whereby validation of new blocks of transactions no longer takes place by \"mining\". The millions of high-end graphics cards that are used for this will no longer beneeded for the new \"proof-of-stake\" approach, so that most of these will likely find their way into the used card market. This will depress demand for new graphics cards just when Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is set to announce its next-generation GeForce 40 series.Ethereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy consuming \"mining\"The transition of Ethereum to proof-of-stake was called the Merge because it involved combining the parallel block chain that was already using proof-of-stake experimentally with the main block chain that was using traditional mining, called proof-of-work. This is shown below in this diagram from the Ethereum Foundation:Ethereum.orgMining was really just transaction processing, in which a number of Ethereum transactions would be bundled into a block and encrypted. But the encryption process was made artificially difficult, requiring millions of high end graphics cards in the mining pool to process a block in a reasonable period of time.In the new proof-of-stake approach, the artificial difficulty is removed, so that hardware requirements can be met by almost any computer, ending the need for graphics card processing and the attendant energy consumption. Ethereum claims this will reduce energy consumption by 99.95%.Some miners may go to work on a \"hard fork\" of Ethereum, in effect, a secession of the currency into a new one called EthereumPOW. This currency will continue to use proof-of-work, but it's unclear whether mining this will be profitable.Probably, the vast majority of cards will go on the used card market and be sold on venues such as eBay.Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card salesFollowing Nvidia's revised guidance for its fiscal 2023 Q2, I realized that I needed to revise my model of Ethereum-related sales of graphics cards. I had published an article detailing the model in July.The problem with the model was that it only accounted for sales into the Ethereum mining pool when the pool was adding capacity, i.e., adding new cards to the pool. It worked fine as long as the pool was still growing.However, starting in mid-May, the Ethereum mining pool hash rate, a measure of mining capacity, started to decline, as shown in the following chart from BitInfoCharts:BinInfoChartsThis implied that a substantial number of graphics cards were being removed from the pool. If I assumed that these cards were comparable to current generation Nvidia and AMD (AMD) cards, then it was reasonable to assume that every used card sold was a lost new card sale.This turned out to account very well for Nvidia's fiscal Q2 results, if we assume that a normal quarterly revenue in Nvidia's Gaming segment is about $2.5 billion. During the Fiscal Q2 conference call, Nvidia specifically claimed that this would be their normal average Gaming segment revenue without crypto. In my spreadsheet calculations, it was easy to calculate the used card effect simply by allowing the change in mining pool cards to go negative, with a negative net revenue for the cards:Mark HibbenNote that the revenue impact doesn't only fall on Nvidia, but the timing of Nvidia's fiscal Q2 lined up better with the fall in Ethereum mining capacity and likely release of cards into the used card market. AMD will likely feel the impact in its Q3 results.The impact of the Merge on Nvidia's sales will be, at best, uglyThe model provides a means of anticipating what happens when the Ethereum hash rate effectively goes to zero, post Merge. And it's not pretty. In an article on August 21, I gave my subscribers a heads-up concerning the impact of the Merge, and I further revised my model results on September 11.If we assume that the entire mining pool consists of newer graphics cards released since September 2020 (RTX 30 series for Nvidia), then Nvidia's RTX 30 series sales for Q3 are completely wiped out, as shown in the spreadsheet calculations extended to Q3:Mark HibbenThe model deducts the hash rate contribution due to Nvidia Crypto Mining Processors (CMP). These cannot be sold into the used graphics cards market, since they lack display outputs.This amounts to assuming that all of the cards used in mining before September 2020 (about when the RTX 30 series launched) were replaced with newer cards. This probably isn't absolutely correct, and the mining pool has consisted of a mixture of older and newer cards.As a lower bound, we can assume that none of the older cards were replaced. These cards would not impact new card sales, since they aren't comparable to current generation cards. The model can deduct these cards from the calculated revenue impact by simply deducting the pre-September 2020 hash rate of 228.2361 terahash/sec (THASH) for the mining pool:Mark HibbenSo the lost revenue impact for Nvidia looks to be in the range of $2-3 billion, and it probably won't fall all in Q3 but be distributed over several quarters. The effect of the Merge is to effectively zero out Nvidia's crypto revenue over time. The revenue made during Ethereum's mining pool expansion is negated by lost revenue post Merge, with the exception of CMP revenue and revenue from older graphics cards that might still have been in the pool at the time of the Merge.How will the Merge affect Nvidia's expected RTX 40 series launch?Nvidia has been expected to announce its GeForce RTX 40 series cards for some time, and Nvidia posted this announcement on its website:NvidiaVarious tech pundits are claiming that this is the worst time for Nvidia to launch a new generation of gaming graphics cards. One important feature expected of the RTX 40 series is support for PCIE 5.0. This could be important in reducing the impact of the Ethereum Merge.The current generation of Nvidia and AMD cards only support PCIE 4.0, the prevailing standard at the time of their introduction in late 2020. PCIE 5.0 will double the communication bandwidth compared to 4.0. It's not clear how critical that will be to gaming performance, but it should eliminate PCIE as a bottleneck, if it ever was.Just as important, new generation CPUs will have to support PCIE 5.0, since the GPU is typically linked directly to the CPU through a built in PCIE 16 lane (x16) interface. This is the preferred architecture for maximum gaming performance, and all modern CPUs provide at least 16 lanes of PCIE for this purpose.Intel (INTC) already supports PCIE 5.0 in its latest Alder Lake 12th generation Core series of desktop CPUs. Since Alder Lake launched early this year, there have been no PCIE 5.0 graphics cards to take advantage of the interface, but the current installed base of Alder Lake systems represents a waiting market for the new PCIE 5.0 cards.Unfortunately, I don't have an estimate of Alder Lake sales, so I have no idea what the size of that market might be. Current generation AMD Ryzen 5000 series desktop CPUs only offer PCIE 4.0, but the Ryzen 7000 series has been announced with support for PCIE 5.0, with a launch expected in October. AMD's next-generation GPUs have only been \"teased\" but are expected to support PCIE 5.0 as well.The performance desktop market (mostly gamers) is moving rapidly to PCIE 5.0, and Nvidia will have, at least for a few months, the only graphics cards that support it. Gamers tend to be early adopters and favor the highest performance technology.Sincenoneof the used cards released from the Merge will support PCIE 5.0, this may serve to somewhat isolate the RTX 40 series launch from the impact of the Merge. How much isolation is still unclear.Most of the current population of gaming systems will only support PCIE 4.0, so this part of the market would probably not buy RTX 40 series in any case. Most 40 series sales will go into new system builds.Certainly, the impact of the Merge will be to weaken sales of the RTX 40 series at launch. However, overall sales in the Gaming segment will probably benefit from the launch. The 40 series launch will give the segment a revenue stream it would not have had otherwise.Investor takeaways: will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?Nvidia guided to revenue of $5.9 billion for fiscal Q3 during the Q2 conference call, and this implies revenue in the gaming segment of about $1 billion. Did Nvidia account for the Merge in their guidance?When asked specifically about the impact of the Merge, Nvidia management had no comment, and professed an inability to account for the crypto impact. The guidance was claimed to be due to a retail channel inventory glut.If Nvidia really wasn't accounting for the Merge, then almost certainly it will need to restate guidance for Q3. Probably, the RTX 40 series launch will not be enough to provide the roughly $1 billion in Gaming segment revenue.In my Nvidia integrated financial model, I'm assuming a $3 billion hit due to the Merge and another $1 billion due to inventory correction. In the model, this is distributed over the next four quarters from fiscal 2023 Q3 to fiscal 2024 Q2, with Gaming segment sales only starting to recover in fiscal 2024 Q3.Despite this, I'm still modeling growth in the all-important Data Center segment. Nvidia's next-generation data center accelerator, the Hopper H100, is testing out to be very impressive and is in production now with deliveries expected by the end of the calendar year.Hopper should ensure continued growth in the Data Center segment, and the advent of Grace, Nvidia's ARM architecture CPU for the data center, should further enhance growth. Data Center growth largely compensates for revenue declines expected in Gaming for this year and next, according to the model:Mark HibbenAccording to my long-term Discounted Cash Flow model, Nvidia has a fair value of $192. I consider Nvidia's future to be very bright, despite the impact of crypto in the near term.Currently, I have Nvidia rated at Hold, and Nvidia has been a relatively small part of the Rethink Technology portfolio since selling most of my Nvidia shares (at a substantial profit) in April. I'm pretty close to upgrading Nvidia to Buy, but I'm waiting to see if the Merge (and possible guidance restatement) will drive Nvidia's price even lower.Also, I'm waiting to see what Nvidia has to offer in its new 40 series on September 20. Nvidia has consistently set the performance bar in the desktop graphics card market. Most likely, Nvidia is already undervalued.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9998931090,"gmtCreate":1660916133411,"gmtModify":1676536422755,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It is sad to see this actually. Will cinemas become a thing in the past?","listText":"It is sad to see this actually. Will cinemas become a thing in the past?","text":"It is sad to see this actually. Will cinemas become a thing in the past?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9998931090","repostId":"2260493813","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038850612,"gmtCreate":1646794099739,"gmtModify":1676534163377,"author":{"id":"3555537259700212","authorId":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","idStr":"3555537259700212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"As a consumer, I hate ads. As a shareholder, I love ads.😅😂","listText":"As a consumer, I hate ads. As a shareholder, I love ads.😅😂","text":"As a consumer, I hate ads. As a shareholder, I love ads.😅😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038850612","repostId":"2218405959","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":883,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3582520228861009","authorId":"3582520228861009","name":"CPCat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bafaf3d39abfb78a4bedf785310721a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3582520228861009","idStr":"3582520228861009"},"content":"well said. such dilemma! lol","text":"well said. such dilemma! lol","html":"well said. such dilemma! lol"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}