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Bodoh

Bodoh

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04-08

$1-2 out of $90 is "tumbles"?

Oil Tumbles 2% As Middle East Tensions Ease

03-23

Beyond the U.S. there are a few wars that will send the stock crashing to 500$$

Nvidia Stock Rises. It Needs to Look Beyond the U.S. for Growth

03-20

Oh nvidia is ok but amd is not... hmmm

There's Too Much Exuberance In AMD's Share Price

03-18

If <fill in the blank> keeps rising like this, it will be bigger than <fill in something else>.

If Nvidia Keeps Rising Like This, It Will Be Bigger Than the Global Economy

03-10

All eggs in top7 basket! Way to go!

@Shyon:If to choose, I would diversify my investment. I will chase high on high players like NVIDIA Meta Amazon and Microsoft but not all in these high players only. The remaining 3 like Tesla Apple and Google are undoubtedly great excellent players in the market too. Just that right now they are experiencing their downturn but it doesn't mean that they will stay this low forever. Look at Meta two years ago, how it slumped while all the others kept on breaking historical high. So I do believe that it is just a matter of time for the remaining three giants to wake up and recover. Their success is not over one or two years but is proven over the decades. The capability is there, just a suitable timing is needed for the stock prices to shoot to the moon! How about you?

02-19

Another Fool's article?

Sorry, the original content has been removed

02-09

More room to fall with debt defaults rising

Sorry, the original content has been removed

02-04

Hahaha has eyeballs and usage gone up? Meta is for boomers n boomers r fading away fast

Sorry, the original content has been removed

01-28

Haha

01-23

And hardware is not as big as software

Sorry, the original content has been removed

01-19

NIO is the next winner

Sorry, the original content has been removed

01-17

Cost control and technology moat can be sustained? The competition is definitely not asleep

Nvidia: Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy?

01-16

re-stocking demand "may" pick up... the keyword is "may". Then what about profit margins?

TSMC's Q4 Profit to Slide 23%, Focus on Rebounding Demand This Year

01-16

3-5% pullback = buying opportunity?! Would the wars have stopped by then?

The Fed Will Cut Rates In March, Or Else

01-12

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ increasing salaries. Manufacturing issues. Late to deliver L4 autonomy. High cost of car loans. Pressure from Chinese manufacturers requiring more protectionist measures from U.S. govt. Sell. Target price $180

01-05

"Gives you green light"... you mean the recommendation is so powerful?

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-12-30

Good, go ahead

3 Undervalued Stocks I Am Buying

2023-12-29

There is no guarantee in everything In life, except change, and taxes. So if this article is correct we should all short NIO.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-12-26

Chase it to death?

Why It's Not Too Late to Chase the Stock Market

2023-12-11

Jumped?

Sorry, the original content has been removed

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Egypt for fresh talks on a potential ceasefire ahead of the Eid holidays, easing tensions in the Middle East that drove up oil prices by more than 4% last week on concerns of supply disruption.</p><p>Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said on Sunday that Israel is ready to handle any scenario that may arise with Iran, after Tehran threatened to retaliate for the killing of Iranian generals on April 1.</p><p>The world&#39;s top oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, raised official selling prices for all crude grades to Asia in May, in line with expectations, after heavy oil supply tightened.</p><p>Fire struck an offshore platform operated by Mexico&#39;s national oil company Pemex on Saturday, killing at least one contractor. 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IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said.</p><p>Israel and Hamas sent teams to Egypt for fresh talks on a potential ceasefire ahead of the Eid holidays, easing tensions in the Middle East that drove up oil prices by more than 4% last week on concerns of supply disruption.</p><p>Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said on Sunday that Israel is ready to handle any scenario that may arise with Iran, after Tehran threatened to retaliate for the killing of Iranian generals on April 1.</p><p>The world&#39;s top oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, raised official selling prices for all crude grades to Asia in May, in line with expectations, after heavy oil supply tightened.</p><p>Fire struck an offshore platform operated by Mexico&#39;s national oil company Pemex on Saturday, killing at least one contractor. This comes after Pemex requested its trading unit to cancel up to 436,000 barrels per day of crude exports in April.</p><p>However, Goldman Sachs analysts expect Brent to stay below $100 a barrel in its base case scenario that assumes already solid demand, no further geopolitical hits to oil supply and that elevated spare capacity will lead OPEC+ to raise production in the third quarter.</p><p>In the United States, oil rigs rose by two to 508 last week while gas rigs fell by two to 110, the lowest since January 2022, Baker Hughes said in its report on Friday.</p><p>The U.S. employment report on Friday beat expectations, suggesting the economy ended the first quarter on solid ground and potentially delaying anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year.</p><p>The Fed may push out rate cuts amid strong U.S. economic data and a tight labour market, Auckland-based independent analyst Tina Teng said.</p><p>Investors will be scouring consumer price index data from U.S. and China due later this week for further clues on the timing of possible Fed rate cuts and to gauge the economic health of the world&#39;s top two oil consumers.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137028568","content_text":"SINGAPORE, April 8 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell more than $1 a barrel on Monday, with Brent sliding under $90, as Middle East tensions eased after Israel withdrew more soldiers from southern Gaza and committed to fresh talks on a potential ceasefire in the six-month conflict.Brent crude futures slipped $1.70, or 1.9%, to $89.47 a barrel by 0053 GMT.U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $85.29 a barrel, down $1.62, or 1.9%.\"It appears the catalyst is Israel saying it has withdrawn all troops except one brigade from the Southern Gaza strip, likely in response to growing international pressure and to deescalate tensions after it killed senior Iranian commanders in Syria last week,\" IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said.Israel and Hamas sent teams to Egypt for fresh talks on a potential ceasefire ahead of the Eid holidays, easing tensions in the Middle East that drove up oil prices by more than 4% last week on concerns of supply disruption.Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said on Sunday that Israel is ready to handle any scenario that may arise with Iran, after Tehran threatened to retaliate for the killing of Iranian generals on April 1.The world's top oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, raised official selling prices for all crude grades to Asia in May, in line with expectations, after heavy oil supply tightened.Fire struck an offshore platform operated by Mexico's national oil company Pemex on Saturday, killing at least one contractor. This comes after Pemex requested its trading unit to cancel up to 436,000 barrels per day of crude exports in April.However, Goldman Sachs analysts expect Brent to stay below $100 a barrel in its base case scenario that assumes already solid demand, no further geopolitical hits to oil supply and that elevated spare capacity will lead OPEC+ to raise production in the third quarter.In the United States, oil rigs rose by two to 508 last week while gas rigs fell by two to 110, the lowest since January 2022, Baker Hughes said in its report on Friday.The U.S. employment report on Friday beat expectations, suggesting the economy ended the first quarter on solid ground and potentially delaying anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year.The Fed may push out rate cuts amid strong U.S. economic data and a tight labour market, Auckland-based independent analyst Tina Teng said.Investors will be scouring consumer price index data from U.S. and China due later this week for further clues on the timing of possible Fed rate cuts and to gauge the economic health of the world's top two oil consumers.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":287139149070416,"gmtCreate":1711125001079,"gmtModify":1711125287651,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Beyond the U.S. there are a few wars that will send the stock crashing to 500$$","listText":"Beyond the U.S. there are a few wars that will send the stock crashing to 500$$","text":"Beyond the U.S. there are a few wars that will send the stock crashing to 500$$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/287139149070416","repostId":"1143908313","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143908313","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"1012688067","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1711120343,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1143908313?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-03-22 23:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Stock Rises. It Needs to Look Beyond the U.S. for Growth","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143908313","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Nvidia stock was climbing Friday following the conclusion of its GTC developer event.The chip maker’s announcements got rave reviews from Wall Street but the market seems to be waiting for signs of fu","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia stock was climbing Friday following the conclusion of its GTC developer event. The chip maker’s announcements got rave reviews from Wall Street but the market seems to be waiting for signs of further growth, which could come from outside the U.S.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Nvidia shares were up 2% on Friday.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/021733ef08c5e40532aaa114797ee1b6\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"625\"/></p><p>Nvidia stock closed up 1.2% at $914.35 on Thursday, meaning it gained just more than 4% over the duration of its developer event, where it unveiled its new range of Blackwell chips. </p><p>Updates from Wall Street in the wake of the event were still trickling in at the end of the week. UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri raised his target price on the stock to $1,100 from $800, keeping a Buy rating. </p><p>“Following the Blackwell launch … we believe Nvidia sits on the cusp of an entirely new wave of demand from global enterprises and sovereigns — with each sovereign potentially as big as a large U.S. cloud customer,” Arcuri wrote in a research note Thursday. </p><p>Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang repeatedly has suggested each country will need to build its own artificial-intelligence infrastructure, supporting the company’s continued growth even if U.S. technology companies eventually slow their purchases of its hardware. UBS’s Arcuri said any near-term weakness in Nvidia stock could be an attractive buying opportunity, with more revenue growth coming in 2025.</p><p>Among other chip makers, Advanced Micro Devices was down 1.7% on Friday and Intel was down 0.3%.</p><p>Nvidia shares have risen 85% this year through to Thursday’s close. That compares with a 9.9% increase in the S&amp;P 500 index and a 9.3% gain in the Nasdaq Composite over the same period. </p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Stock Rises. It Needs to Look Beyond the U.S. for Growth</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Stock Rises. It Needs to Look Beyond the U.S. for Growth\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1012688067\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-03-22 23:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia stock was climbing Friday following the conclusion of its GTC developer event. The chip maker’s announcements got rave reviews from Wall Street but the market seems to be waiting for signs of further growth, which could come from outside the U.S.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Nvidia shares were up 2% on Friday.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/021733ef08c5e40532aaa114797ee1b6\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"625\"/></p><p>Nvidia stock closed up 1.2% at $914.35 on Thursday, meaning it gained just more than 4% over the duration of its developer event, where it unveiled its new range of Blackwell chips. </p><p>Updates from Wall Street in the wake of the event were still trickling in at the end of the week. UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri raised his target price on the stock to $1,100 from $800, keeping a Buy rating. </p><p>“Following the Blackwell launch … we believe Nvidia sits on the cusp of an entirely new wave of demand from global enterprises and sovereigns — with each sovereign potentially as big as a large U.S. cloud customer,” Arcuri wrote in a research note Thursday. </p><p>Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang repeatedly has suggested each country will need to build its own artificial-intelligence infrastructure, supporting the company’s continued growth even if U.S. technology companies eventually slow their purchases of its hardware. UBS’s Arcuri said any near-term weakness in Nvidia stock could be an attractive buying opportunity, with more revenue growth coming in 2025.</p><p>Among other chip makers, Advanced Micro Devices was down 1.7% on Friday and Intel was down 0.3%.</p><p>Nvidia shares have risen 85% this year through to Thursday’s close. That compares with a 9.9% increase in the S&amp;P 500 index and a 9.3% gain in the Nasdaq Composite over the same period. </p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143908313","content_text":"Nvidia stock was climbing Friday following the conclusion of its GTC developer event. The chip maker’s announcements got rave reviews from Wall Street but the market seems to be waiting for signs of further growth, which could come from outside the U.S.Nvidia shares were up 2% on Friday.Nvidia stock closed up 1.2% at $914.35 on Thursday, meaning it gained just more than 4% over the duration of its developer event, where it unveiled its new range of Blackwell chips. Updates from Wall Street in the wake of the event were still trickling in at the end of the week. UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri raised his target price on the stock to $1,100 from $800, keeping a Buy rating. “Following the Blackwell launch … we believe Nvidia sits on the cusp of an entirely new wave of demand from global enterprises and sovereigns — with each sovereign potentially as big as a large U.S. cloud customer,” Arcuri wrote in a research note Thursday. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang repeatedly has suggested each country will need to build its own artificial-intelligence infrastructure, supporting the company’s continued growth even if U.S. technology companies eventually slow their purchases of its hardware. UBS’s Arcuri said any near-term weakness in Nvidia stock could be an attractive buying opportunity, with more revenue growth coming in 2025.Among other chip makers, Advanced Micro Devices was down 1.7% on Friday and Intel was down 0.3%.Nvidia shares have risen 85% this year through to Thursday’s close. That compares with a 9.9% increase in the S&P 500 index and a 9.3% gain in the Nasdaq Composite over the same period.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":384,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":286356473680064,"gmtCreate":1710946067139,"gmtModify":1710946071404,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh nvidia is ok but amd is not... hmmm","listText":"Oh nvidia is ok but amd is not... hmmm","text":"Oh nvidia is ok but amd is not... hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/286356473680064","repostId":"2420471457","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2420471457","pubTimestamp":1710943391,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2420471457?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-03-20 22:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"There's Too Much Exuberance In AMD's Share Price","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2420471457","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. stock has doubled since October 2023.The company's stock has experienced significant growth.AMD's performance has been strong in recent months.   Jerod Harris Advanced Mic","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. stock has doubled since October 2023.</p></li><li><p>The company&#39;s stock has experienced significant growth.</p></li><li><p>AMD&#39;s performance has been strong in recent months.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/df331a5820693d9fb2d487d466a5e3d6\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"514\"/></p><p>Jerod Harris</p><p>Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. has doubled since lows hit late October 2023. The company has a market capitalization of more than $300 billion as it strives to be more competitive with Nvidia (NVDA), working to build its own competitive GPUs. Despite being dramatically smaller, as we&#39;ll see throughout this article, even with the market position, the company is heavily overvalued.</p><p>We last recommended against investing in AMD in a prior November article. However, we failed to foresee the exuberance artificial intelligence (&#34;AI&#34;) stocks would see going into 2024. Still, we see AMD as clearly overvalued.</p><h2 id=\"id_316061122\">AMD Market Positioning</h2><p>AMD has worked to improve its market positioning, supported by its recent acquisition of Xilinx and strong datacenter demand. The company also maintains its gaming GPU business and CPU business direct to consumers.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5c28f41f09fab960be4b13c05f0cdbb3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"/></p><p>AMD Investor Presentation</p><p>The company&#39;s data center portfolio is among its strongest, and the company is working to expand it. Here with its Xbox and other segments, we think the company might be uniquely positioned to help customers make custom silicon. For clients, the company has become increasingly competitive with Intel, which is exciting to see.</p><p>However, in gaming GPUs the company still lags behind Nvidia, which continues to dominate high end GPUs. This indicates that its gaming segment will face continued headwinds given desktop GPU demand declines.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2a67edabdb4e5075b066760ca426744d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"251\"/></p><p>AMD Investor Presentation</p><p>The above section shows the company&#39;s focus on positioning itself in AI, especially with its new MI300X accelerator. To provide brief background, originally GPUs were created to excel at simple parallel compute, taking advantage of sending numerous pixels to a display. It turns out, a multi-billion parameter neural network does the same thing.</p><p>That has led to GPUs (first Nvidia) being at the forefront of AI, until the market has become large enough that companies are building dedicated silicon for these tasks. AMD&#39;s MI300X is its example of an accelerator for a market that&#39;s potentially worth $10s of billions.</p><p>In major, potentially relevant benchmark workloads, such as the Llama 2 (a large language model, or LLM), the company sees 1.2x performance versus the H100. Of course, the MI300X will compete more against the H200, but it still shows the GPU can hold its ground. With continued shortages, this shows the MI300X&#39; strength. With the MI300X seeing additional SW support, this is key to increased adoption and future revenue from the product.</p><p>However, it&#39;s also worth noting that the company is playing second fiddle to the clear market leader Nvidia. Demand for the company&#39;s GPUs comes from shortages and higher prices for Nvidia&#39;s GPUs.</p><h2 id=\"id_1503897208\">AMD Financial Performance</h2><p>The company&#39;s financial performance in 4Q 2023 (released Jan 2024) declined YoY, despite strong revenue, as its core segments outperformed.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fb5c8fd8ca04cfd5d127a23aef4b4c3b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\"/></p><p>AMD Investor Presentation</p><p>The company saw its revenue decline by 4% YoY after it took a noticeable hit from weakness in the client and gaming segments. Versus a company with a market capitalization of more than $300 billion, that&#39;s a price to sales of almost 15x. It indicates how expensive the company is and how much growth it needs in order to justify its valuation.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5be453f532af8c76a1c438ce4f900fe2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\"/></p><p>AMD Investor Presentation</p><p>The company did manage to improve its GAAP margins, which is impressive in a tough market where revenue declined. There was a GAAP margin improvement from 45% to 46%, showing this strength. The company&#39;s non-GAAP margins did decline by 2%, but we feel that GAAP margins are much more important than Non-GAAP.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b2c2f44eaa3e0bdc1f61b8a327f64b1b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"365\"/></p><p>AMD Investor Presentation</p><p>The above shows the breakdown of the company&#39;s YoY comparisons. Operating expenses did go up substantially, which took away the impact of gross margins. That&#39;s not too surprising given the company&#39;s newfound focus on building out AI accelerators. The company did have more than $850 million in net income, and a P/E of almost 400 for the year.</p><p>We expect the company&#39;s 2024 to improve financially, as it sells more accelerators, but the company&#39;s relatively stagnant YoY financials are clear. The company needs profits to increase dramatically to justify its valuation.</p><p>Long term, the S&amp;P 500 (SP500) returns are around 10%. Obviously not every growth stock needs that, however, at some point in the future AMD needs the shareholder returns to justify an almost $300 billion market capitalization. If it takes 10 years to hit that, it needs to get even higher returns to justify the valuation.</p><p>With current net income at less than $1 billion annually, we don&#39;t see the company as having a path to getting to the $30+ billion it needs to be long term.</p><h2 id=\"id_334159393\">AMD Outlook</h2><p>The company&#39;s outlook shows strong improvement in the financial picture, but again not the positioning to justify its valuation.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/535c7883a36f0049a835cc731f8860f8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\"/></p><p>AMD Investor Presentation</p><p>The company has $5.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents and just under $3 billion in debt. The company&#39;s share count is still reeling from the impacts of the Xilinx acquisition. That increased its share count by 35%, in an all-stock acquisition completed when its share price was at half its current level. We&#39;re almost never a fan of a major dilutive acquisition, unless you&#39;re in an industry like banking with minimal alternatives.</p><p>The company&#39;s forecast is for roughly $5.4 billion in revenue, an annualized decline, but with a wide range showing a varying market for artificial intelligence. Expenses are to remain high, but the company does expect a higher gross margin, likely supported by higher margin data center GPUs it&#39;ll be selling.</p><p>Still there&#39;s nothing in the company&#39;s guidance to show it has a growth path to justify its valuation.</p><h2 id=\"id_3068714488\">Thesis Risk</h2><p>The largest risk to our thesis is the size of the market and the AMD&#39;s position as it strives to compete with Nvidia. If the company can build a GPU that&#39;s ahead of Nvidia&#39;s, or Nvidia has a continued shortage, it could quickly capture a larger portion of the market.</p><h2 id=\"id_2788832773\">Conclusion</h2><p>AMD represents what was once primarily a gaming GPU company, but is now a company using its technology to position itself in the race for AI accelerators. The company has some impressive technology and products that it&#39;s built up. Despite that, the company actually saw its revenue decline YoY despite incredibly strong performance in its share price, especially YTD, backed by AI exuberance. The company has a strong portfolio of assets and is working to become more competitive with Nvidia for its latest AI accelerators.</p><p>Despite all of that, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. is still heavily overvalued. The company&#39;s guidance suggests virtually no revenue growth and profits are still extremely low versus its valuation. Despite the long-term potential of the market, we don&#39;t view the company&#39;s potential as being unique enough to justify investing at the current share price.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>There's Too Much Exuberance In AMD's Share Price</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThere's Too Much Exuberance In AMD's Share Price\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-20 22:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4679354-theres-too-much-exuberance-in-amd-share-price><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. stock has doubled since October 2023.The company's stock has experienced significant growth.AMD's performance has been strong in recent months.Jerod HarrisAdvanced Micro ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4679354-theres-too-much-exuberance-in-amd-share-price\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU1951198990.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund H-R/A SGD-H","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1951200564.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A SGD","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4566":"资本集团","LU1303367103.USD":"摩根大通多经理另类基金 A (acc)","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1923623000.USD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A USD","LU2098885051.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Multi-Manager Alternatives A (acc) SGD","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4679354-theres-too-much-exuberance-in-amd-share-price","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2420471457","content_text":"Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. stock has doubled since October 2023.The company's stock has experienced significant growth.AMD's performance has been strong in recent months.Jerod HarrisAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. has doubled since lows hit late October 2023. The company has a market capitalization of more than $300 billion as it strives to be more competitive with Nvidia (NVDA), working to build its own competitive GPUs. Despite being dramatically smaller, as we'll see throughout this article, even with the market position, the company is heavily overvalued.We last recommended against investing in AMD in a prior November article. However, we failed to foresee the exuberance artificial intelligence (\"AI\") stocks would see going into 2024. Still, we see AMD as clearly overvalued.AMD Market PositioningAMD has worked to improve its market positioning, supported by its recent acquisition of Xilinx and strong datacenter demand. The company also maintains its gaming GPU business and CPU business direct to consumers.AMD Investor PresentationThe company's data center portfolio is among its strongest, and the company is working to expand it. Here with its Xbox and other segments, we think the company might be uniquely positioned to help customers make custom silicon. For clients, the company has become increasingly competitive with Intel, which is exciting to see.However, in gaming GPUs the company still lags behind Nvidia, which continues to dominate high end GPUs. This indicates that its gaming segment will face continued headwinds given desktop GPU demand declines.AMD Investor PresentationThe above section shows the company's focus on positioning itself in AI, especially with its new MI300X accelerator. To provide brief background, originally GPUs were created to excel at simple parallel compute, taking advantage of sending numerous pixels to a display. It turns out, a multi-billion parameter neural network does the same thing.That has led to GPUs (first Nvidia) being at the forefront of AI, until the market has become large enough that companies are building dedicated silicon for these tasks. AMD's MI300X is its example of an accelerator for a market that's potentially worth $10s of billions.In major, potentially relevant benchmark workloads, such as the Llama 2 (a large language model, or LLM), the company sees 1.2x performance versus the H100. Of course, the MI300X will compete more against the H200, but it still shows the GPU can hold its ground. With continued shortages, this shows the MI300X' strength. With the MI300X seeing additional SW support, this is key to increased adoption and future revenue from the product.However, it's also worth noting that the company is playing second fiddle to the clear market leader Nvidia. Demand for the company's GPUs comes from shortages and higher prices for Nvidia's GPUs.AMD Financial PerformanceThe company's financial performance in 4Q 2023 (released Jan 2024) declined YoY, despite strong revenue, as its core segments outperformed.AMD Investor PresentationThe company saw its revenue decline by 4% YoY after it took a noticeable hit from weakness in the client and gaming segments. Versus a company with a market capitalization of more than $300 billion, that's a price to sales of almost 15x. It indicates how expensive the company is and how much growth it needs in order to justify its valuation.AMD Investor PresentationThe company did manage to improve its GAAP margins, which is impressive in a tough market where revenue declined. There was a GAAP margin improvement from 45% to 46%, showing this strength. The company's non-GAAP margins did decline by 2%, but we feel that GAAP margins are much more important than Non-GAAP.AMD Investor PresentationThe above shows the breakdown of the company's YoY comparisons. Operating expenses did go up substantially, which took away the impact of gross margins. That's not too surprising given the company's newfound focus on building out AI accelerators. The company did have more than $850 million in net income, and a P/E of almost 400 for the year.We expect the company's 2024 to improve financially, as it sells more accelerators, but the company's relatively stagnant YoY financials are clear. The company needs profits to increase dramatically to justify its valuation.Long term, the S&P 500 (SP500) returns are around 10%. Obviously not every growth stock needs that, however, at some point in the future AMD needs the shareholder returns to justify an almost $300 billion market capitalization. If it takes 10 years to hit that, it needs to get even higher returns to justify the valuation.With current net income at less than $1 billion annually, we don't see the company as having a path to getting to the $30+ billion it needs to be long term.AMD OutlookThe company's outlook shows strong improvement in the financial picture, but again not the positioning to justify its valuation.AMD Investor PresentationThe company has $5.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents and just under $3 billion in debt. The company's share count is still reeling from the impacts of the Xilinx acquisition. That increased its share count by 35%, in an all-stock acquisition completed when its share price was at half its current level. We're almost never a fan of a major dilutive acquisition, unless you're in an industry like banking with minimal alternatives.The company's forecast is for roughly $5.4 billion in revenue, an annualized decline, but with a wide range showing a varying market for artificial intelligence. Expenses are to remain high, but the company does expect a higher gross margin, likely supported by higher margin data center GPUs it'll be selling.Still there's nothing in the company's guidance to show it has a growth path to justify its valuation.Thesis RiskThe largest risk to our thesis is the size of the market and the AMD's position as it strives to compete with Nvidia. If the company can build a GPU that's ahead of Nvidia's, or Nvidia has a continued shortage, it could quickly capture a larger portion of the market.ConclusionAMD represents what was once primarily a gaming GPU company, but is now a company using its technology to position itself in the race for AI accelerators. The company has some impressive technology and products that it's built up. Despite that, the company actually saw its revenue decline YoY despite incredibly strong performance in its share price, especially YTD, backed by AI exuberance. The company has a strong portfolio of assets and is working to become more competitive with Nvidia for its latest AI accelerators.Despite all of that, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. is still heavily overvalued. The company's guidance suggests virtually no revenue growth and profits are still extremely low versus its valuation. Despite the long-term potential of the market, we don't view the company's potential as being unique enough to justify investing at the current share price.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":285622073663688,"gmtCreate":1710738038019,"gmtModify":1710738041613,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"If &lt;fill in the blank&gt; keeps rising like this, it will be bigger than &lt;fill in something else&gt;.&nbsp;","listText":"If &lt;fill in the blank&gt; keeps rising like this, it will be bigger than &lt;fill in something else&gt;.&nbsp;","text":"If <fill in the blank> keeps rising like this, it will be bigger than <fill in something else>.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/285622073663688","repostId":"1140037774","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140037774","pubTimestamp":1710728717,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140037774?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-03-18 10:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"If Nvidia Keeps Rising Like This, It Will Be Bigger Than the Global Economy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140037774","media":"The New York Times","summary":"To their credit, all three of the A.I. chatbots I asked — Microsoft Copilot, powered by OpenAI’s Chat GPT-4; Google Gemini; and Anthropic’s Claude 3 — were reluctant to answer my questions directly.Each one said it couldn’t assess stock valuations reliably or predict with the slightest degree of accuracy how a stock or the overall market would perform in the future. I wish human stock analysts said as much.Just because Nvidia’s stock price is growing fast now doesn’t mean it will keep growing fa","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>A.I. fervor has rocketed the chip company’s share price upward. Our columnist asked A.I. chatbots how big Nvidia would become if it kept growing as fast as it had over the past year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a413e60a50a8f75743b3e63276906daf\" alt=\"Tom Grillo\" title=\"Tom Grillo\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"600\"/><span>Tom Grillo</span></p><p>It’s not a household name quite yet, but anyone who follows the stock market knows at least a little about Nvidia.</p><p>The company is the wonder of the year, a stock by which all others are measured. Nvidia designs the chips that make artificial intelligence work, and because A.I. is being hailed as the most important technological development since the internet, Nvidia shares have been rocketing since last year.</p><p>I’m not qualified to assess how important — or how dangerous — A.I. will one day become, but I do pay close attention to the stock market, which values Nvidia at more than $2.2 trillion, making it the third-largest public company in the world behind Microsoft and Apple.</p><p>Enthusiasm for A.I. is raising the share prices not only of Nvidia, but also of many other tech companies that are believed to be imbued with the technology’s potential, including Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet as well as other chipmakers like AMD, Taiwan Semiconductor and Intel.</p><p>But the blistering rate of Nvidia’s gains — an increase of about 290 percent over the past 12 months — has me and many Wall Street analysts wondering how sustainable this run is. The answer has implications for the entire market.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c58a03fab849abb10bf7ac36358a6588\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"712\"/></p><p>There are many ways to examine this, including traditional stock analysis, which considers sales, earnings, cash flow, business growth and momentum. I took an offbeat approach: asking several A.I. chatbots about Nvidia’s prospects as a stock. Specifically, I asked how big Nvidia’s market value would be in a decade if the company’s share price kept its current pace.</p><p>What they told me amounted to this: Nvidia stock’s sharp rise can’t continue like this for very long. And because much of the stock market is bound up in the same feverish A.I.-driven stock frenzy, the message is broadly true. If the market doesn’t slow down soon, it may inflate itself into a bubble — and all bubbles eventually burst.</p><p>On a personal level, I love new tech but I try not to become too excited about it until I’m confident it works safely and reliably. From what I can tell, A.I. produces spectacular images and is fun to play with, but it’s neither reliable nor safe (yet).</p><p>(The New York Times sued OpenAI and Microsoft in December for copyright infringement of news content related to A.I. systems.)</p><h3 id=\"link-721d6d66\" style=\"text-align: left;\">What’s in a quadrillion?</h3><p>To their credit, all three of the A.I. chatbots I asked — Microsoft Copilot, powered by OpenAI’s Chat GPT-4; Google Gemini; and Anthropic’s Claude 3 — were reluctant to answer my questions directly.</p><p>Each one said it couldn’t assess stock valuations reliably or predict with the slightest degree of accuracy how a stock or the overall market would perform in the future. I wish human stock analysts said as much.</p><p>Just because Nvidia’s stock price is growing fast now doesn’t mean it will keep growing fast, and certainly not over periods as long as a decade, they all warned me.</p><p>But I pressed them to perform some basic calculations anyway, which I backstopped with 20th-century technology — a spreadsheet and a calculator.</p><p>The chatbots didn’t arrive at the same numbers every time and never agreed on the details. That’s another sign, in my humble estimation, that they’re not ready for prime time. I wouldn’t use them for math homework.</p><p>But in this case, the details didn’t really matter. Ultimately, and with considerable prompting, they all came up with the same basic conclusion: The simple laws of compound arithmetic tell us that if the company’s share price keeps rising at its current rate, Nvidia will end up with a market cap in the quadrillions of dollars.</p><p>Quadrillions are an order of magnitude I’m not comfortable with, so I resorted to a dictionary: One quadrillion dollars is 1 with 15 zeros after it, or a thousand trillion dollars in American parlance. (In British English, a quadrillion is even bigger: 1 with 24 zeros. I’m using the American definition.)</p><p>How big is that? The world economy — the combined size of all of the annual gross domestic products of every country on the planet — amounted to $100.88 trillion in 2022, according to the World Bank. So if Nvidia kept growing at its current annual rate, it would dwarf the output of the entire known economic universe within 10 years.</p><p>Claude 3, the Anthropic A.I. chatbot, calculated that Nvidia, at it’s current growth rate, would become a $2.76962 quadrillion company in 10 years, and then warned me: “This is an extraordinarily large number that seems implausible in reality, as it would make Nvidia larger than the entire global economy many times over.”</p><p>In plain English, Nvidia’s astonishing growth rate over the past year is far too high to continue for long. I’d be wary about buying shares of Nvidia, or any other stock, in the belief that its momentum is perpetual. What goes up can come down, and, somewhere down the line, it certainly will.</p><p>This warning reinforces what traditional valuation measures show. Nvidia’s share price, and the prices of many stocks, are high. They can be justified on the assumption that their sales and earnings will grow at a rip-roaring pace. But if share prices rise faster than earnings, the market party will eventually crash.</p><h3 id=\"link-5bafc77b\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Remember Apple?</h3><p>Nvidia is an impressive company. Its products have a great reputation and are in high demand, and it generates enormous, rapidly growing profits.</p><p>Its latest earnings report in February, which unleashed tremendous stock market optimism, contained eye-popping numbers. And in a conversation with Wall Street analysts then, Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s chief executive, gave Wall Street something exciting to mull over. The company’s technology is providing the foundations for a new industrial revolution, he said.</p><p>“We are now at the beginning of a new industry where A.I.-dedicated data centers process massive raw data to refine it into digital intelligence,” he said. “Like A.C. power generation plants of the last industrial revolution, Nvidia A.I. supercomputers are essentially A.I. generation factories of this industrial revolution.”</p><p>The sky is the limit for the next couple of years, he suggested.</p><p>But Nvidia will inevitably begin to grow more slowly. It’s absurd to think it can become bigger than everything else in the universe.</p><p>But it could still grow swiftly. Some companies have managed to sustain long-term rapid growth before.</p><p>Apple, at various stages since its founding in 1976, has perplexed skeptics who have periodically said it had become too large to keep expanding quickly. In 2012, for example, Apple’s market capitalization was $500 billion and its stock price had risen 68 percent in just eight months.</p><p>Back then, The New York Times cited an analyst who used a spreadsheet, not a chatbot, to assess Apple’s prospects. The analyst concluded that if the company grew at just 20 percent a year over the following decade — much slower than its growth rate had been in 2012 — Apple would be worth an impossible number by 2022: more than $3 trillion. That number doesn’t look outlandish now.</p><p>Apple’s market cap isn’t quite there yet, but it’s close, at about $2.7 trillion. Its old rival, Microsoft, which was much smaller than Apple in 2012, now has a market cap that surpasses $3 trillion. These two giants have risen and fallen many times and show every prospect of being able to do so again.</p><p>I don’t know whether Nvidia belongs in that exalted category, but it’s clear that even though Nvidia won’t be bigger than the entire universe, it could end up being substantially more valuable in the next 10 or 20 years. Then again, it might not.</p><p>It could be more like Cisco Systems, the most valuable company in the stock market in March 2000. That was the peak of another technology boom — the dot-com bubble. Cisco is still a solid company. Its products make up the backbone of the internet. But its market capitalization in 2000 was $567 billion. Now, it’s around $200 billion.</p><p>It will be fascinating to watch Nvidia’s destiny unfurl. But because I can’t predict how it or any company will fare in the long run, I don’t buy individual stocks — not Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Cisco or anything else.</p><p>Instead, I settle for broad low-cost index funds that track the entire market. They are a passive and less risky bet on the future that requires no stock picking.</p><p>If Nvidia grows rapidly for years to come, I won’t miss out entirely because the overall stock market will probably grow, too. If Nvidia falters, other stocks are likely, at some point, to pick up the slack. That’s what has happened over the past 100 years, anyway. The A.I. boom is a thrilling ride. If it starts to slow, those who have hedged their bets will be pleased that they did.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1608616134662","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If Nvidia Keeps Rising Like This, It Will Be Bigger Than the Global Economy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf Nvidia Keeps Rising Like This, It Will Be Bigger Than the Global Economy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-18 10:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/15/business/nvidia-stock-market-ai-bubble.html><strong>The New York Times</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A.I. fervor has rocketed the chip company’s share price upward. Our columnist asked A.I. chatbots how big Nvidia would become if it kept growing as fast as it had over the past year.Tom GrilloIt’s not...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/15/business/nvidia-stock-market-ai-bubble.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/15/business/nvidia-stock-market-ai-bubble.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140037774","content_text":"A.I. fervor has rocketed the chip company’s share price upward. Our columnist asked A.I. chatbots how big Nvidia would become if it kept growing as fast as it had over the past year.Tom GrilloIt’s not a household name quite yet, but anyone who follows the stock market knows at least a little about Nvidia.The company is the wonder of the year, a stock by which all others are measured. Nvidia designs the chips that make artificial intelligence work, and because A.I. is being hailed as the most important technological development since the internet, Nvidia shares have been rocketing since last year.I’m not qualified to assess how important — or how dangerous — A.I. will one day become, but I do pay close attention to the stock market, which values Nvidia at more than $2.2 trillion, making it the third-largest public company in the world behind Microsoft and Apple.Enthusiasm for A.I. is raising the share prices not only of Nvidia, but also of many other tech companies that are believed to be imbued with the technology’s potential, including Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet as well as other chipmakers like AMD, Taiwan Semiconductor and Intel.But the blistering rate of Nvidia’s gains — an increase of about 290 percent over the past 12 months — has me and many Wall Street analysts wondering how sustainable this run is. The answer has implications for the entire market.There are many ways to examine this, including traditional stock analysis, which considers sales, earnings, cash flow, business growth and momentum. I took an offbeat approach: asking several A.I. chatbots about Nvidia’s prospects as a stock. Specifically, I asked how big Nvidia’s market value would be in a decade if the company’s share price kept its current pace.What they told me amounted to this: Nvidia stock’s sharp rise can’t continue like this for very long. And because much of the stock market is bound up in the same feverish A.I.-driven stock frenzy, the message is broadly true. If the market doesn’t slow down soon, it may inflate itself into a bubble — and all bubbles eventually burst.On a personal level, I love new tech but I try not to become too excited about it until I’m confident it works safely and reliably. From what I can tell, A.I. produces spectacular images and is fun to play with, but it’s neither reliable nor safe (yet).(The New York Times sued OpenAI and Microsoft in December for copyright infringement of news content related to A.I. systems.)What’s in a quadrillion?To their credit, all three of the A.I. chatbots I asked — Microsoft Copilot, powered by OpenAI’s Chat GPT-4; Google Gemini; and Anthropic’s Claude 3 — were reluctant to answer my questions directly.Each one said it couldn’t assess stock valuations reliably or predict with the slightest degree of accuracy how a stock or the overall market would perform in the future. I wish human stock analysts said as much.Just because Nvidia’s stock price is growing fast now doesn’t mean it will keep growing fast, and certainly not over periods as long as a decade, they all warned me.But I pressed them to perform some basic calculations anyway, which I backstopped with 20th-century technology — a spreadsheet and a calculator.The chatbots didn’t arrive at the same numbers every time and never agreed on the details. That’s another sign, in my humble estimation, that they’re not ready for prime time. I wouldn’t use them for math homework.But in this case, the details didn’t really matter. Ultimately, and with considerable prompting, they all came up with the same basic conclusion: The simple laws of compound arithmetic tell us that if the company’s share price keeps rising at its current rate, Nvidia will end up with a market cap in the quadrillions of dollars.Quadrillions are an order of magnitude I’m not comfortable with, so I resorted to a dictionary: One quadrillion dollars is 1 with 15 zeros after it, or a thousand trillion dollars in American parlance. (In British English, a quadrillion is even bigger: 1 with 24 zeros. I’m using the American definition.)How big is that? The world economy — the combined size of all of the annual gross domestic products of every country on the planet — amounted to $100.88 trillion in 2022, according to the World Bank. So if Nvidia kept growing at its current annual rate, it would dwarf the output of the entire known economic universe within 10 years.Claude 3, the Anthropic A.I. chatbot, calculated that Nvidia, at it’s current growth rate, would become a $2.76962 quadrillion company in 10 years, and then warned me: “This is an extraordinarily large number that seems implausible in reality, as it would make Nvidia larger than the entire global economy many times over.”In plain English, Nvidia’s astonishing growth rate over the past year is far too high to continue for long. I’d be wary about buying shares of Nvidia, or any other stock, in the belief that its momentum is perpetual. What goes up can come down, and, somewhere down the line, it certainly will.This warning reinforces what traditional valuation measures show. Nvidia’s share price, and the prices of many stocks, are high. They can be justified on the assumption that their sales and earnings will grow at a rip-roaring pace. But if share prices rise faster than earnings, the market party will eventually crash.Remember Apple?Nvidia is an impressive company. Its products have a great reputation and are in high demand, and it generates enormous, rapidly growing profits.Its latest earnings report in February, which unleashed tremendous stock market optimism, contained eye-popping numbers. And in a conversation with Wall Street analysts then, Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s chief executive, gave Wall Street something exciting to mull over. The company’s technology is providing the foundations for a new industrial revolution, he said.“We are now at the beginning of a new industry where A.I.-dedicated data centers process massive raw data to refine it into digital intelligence,” he said. “Like A.C. power generation plants of the last industrial revolution, Nvidia A.I. supercomputers are essentially A.I. generation factories of this industrial revolution.”The sky is the limit for the next couple of years, he suggested.But Nvidia will inevitably begin to grow more slowly. It’s absurd to think it can become bigger than everything else in the universe.But it could still grow swiftly. Some companies have managed to sustain long-term rapid growth before.Apple, at various stages since its founding in 1976, has perplexed skeptics who have periodically said it had become too large to keep expanding quickly. In 2012, for example, Apple’s market capitalization was $500 billion and its stock price had risen 68 percent in just eight months.Back then, The New York Times cited an analyst who used a spreadsheet, not a chatbot, to assess Apple’s prospects. The analyst concluded that if the company grew at just 20 percent a year over the following decade — much slower than its growth rate had been in 2012 — Apple would be worth an impossible number by 2022: more than $3 trillion. That number doesn’t look outlandish now.Apple’s market cap isn’t quite there yet, but it’s close, at about $2.7 trillion. Its old rival, Microsoft, which was much smaller than Apple in 2012, now has a market cap that surpasses $3 trillion. These two giants have risen and fallen many times and show every prospect of being able to do so again.I don’t know whether Nvidia belongs in that exalted category, but it’s clear that even though Nvidia won’t be bigger than the entire universe, it could end up being substantially more valuable in the next 10 or 20 years. Then again, it might not.It could be more like Cisco Systems, the most valuable company in the stock market in March 2000. That was the peak of another technology boom — the dot-com bubble. Cisco is still a solid company. Its products make up the backbone of the internet. But its market capitalization in 2000 was $567 billion. Now, it’s around $200 billion.It will be fascinating to watch Nvidia’s destiny unfurl. But because I can’t predict how it or any company will fare in the long run, I don’t buy individual stocks — not Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Cisco or anything else.Instead, I settle for broad low-cost index funds that track the entire market. They are a passive and less risky bet on the future that requires no stock picking.If Nvidia grows rapidly for years to come, I won’t miss out entirely because the overall stock market will probably grow, too. If Nvidia falters, other stocks are likely, at some point, to pick up the slack. That’s what has happened over the past 100 years, anyway. The A.I. boom is a thrilling ride. If it starts to slow, those who have hedged their bets will be pleased that they did.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":282771582730240,"gmtCreate":1710064541064,"gmtModify":1710064544595,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"All eggs in top7 basket! Way to go!","listText":"All eggs in top7 basket! Way to go!","text":"All eggs in top7 basket! Way to go!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/282771582730240","repostId":"282155058299000","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":282155058299000,"gmtCreate":1709893815259,"gmtModify":1710172801923,"author":{"id":"3581734406950755","authorId":"3581734406950755","name":"Shyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3423cbda71d7a89cd2f2f2d6744330","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581734406950755","authorIdStr":"3581734406950755"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"If to choose, I would diversify my investment. I will chase high on high players like NVIDIA Meta Amazon and Microsoft but not all in these high players only. The remaining 3 like Tesla Apple and Google are undoubtedly great excellent players in the market too. Just that right now they are experiencing their downturn but it doesn't mean that they will stay this low forever. Look at Meta two years ago, how it slumped while all the others kept on breaking historical high. So I do believe that it is just a matter of time for the remaining three giants to wake up and recover. Their success is not over one or two years but is proven over the decades. The capability is there, just a suitable timing is needed for the stock prices to shoot to the moon! How about you?&nbsp;","listText":"If to choose, I would diversify my investment. I will chase high on high players like NVIDIA Meta Amazon and Microsoft but not all in these high players only. The remaining 3 like Tesla Apple and Google are undoubtedly great excellent players in the market too. Just that right now they are experiencing their downturn but it doesn't mean that they will stay this low forever. Look at Meta two years ago, how it slumped while all the others kept on breaking historical high. So I do believe that it is just a matter of time for the remaining three giants to wake up and recover. Their success is not over one or two years but is proven over the decades. The capability is there, just a suitable timing is needed for the stock prices to shoot to the moon! How about you?&nbsp;","text":"If to choose, I would diversify my investment. I will chase high on high players like NVIDIA Meta Amazon and Microsoft but not all in these high players only. The remaining 3 like Tesla Apple and Google are undoubtedly great excellent players in the market too. Just that right now they are experiencing their downturn but it doesn't mean that they will stay this low forever. Look at Meta two years ago, how it slumped while all the others kept on breaking historical high. So I do believe that it is just a matter of time for the remaining three giants to wake up and recover. Their success is not over one or two years but is proven over the decades. The capability is there, just a suitable timing is needed for the stock prices to shoot to the moon! How about you?","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d65f8b9c8f6032544b980e6f6be5da6d","width":"1175","height":"728"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/282155058299000","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":275702893674632,"gmtCreate":1708349123871,"gmtModify":1708349817884,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Another Fool's article?","listText":"Another Fool's article?","text":"Another Fool's article?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/275702893674632","repostId":"2412673285","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":272201388884184,"gmtCreate":1707493367440,"gmtModify":1707493371946,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"More room to fall with debt defaults rising","listText":"More room to fall with debt defaults rising","text":"More room to fall with debt defaults rising","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/272201388884184","repostId":"2410058415","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":616,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":270405097533504,"gmtCreate":1707025948720,"gmtModify":1707025953298,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hahaha has eyeballs and usage gone up? Meta is for boomers n boomers r fading away fast","listText":"Hahaha has eyeballs and usage gone up? Meta is for boomers n boomers r fading away fast","text":"Hahaha has eyeballs and usage gone up? Meta is for boomers n boomers r fading away fast","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/270405097533504","repostId":"2408728931","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":267739542626376,"gmtCreate":1706397152728,"gmtModify":1706397157075,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Haha","listText":"Haha","text":"Haha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/267739542626376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":265913020580096,"gmtCreate":1705940711770,"gmtModify":1705940716446,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"And hardware is not as big as software","listText":"And hardware is not as big as software","text":"And hardware is not as big as software","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/265913020580096","repostId":"2405702179","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":264806630981856,"gmtCreate":1705674204917,"gmtModify":1705674209173,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"NIO is the next winner","listText":"NIO is the next winner","text":"NIO is the next winner","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/264806630981856","repostId":"2404565571","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":184,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":264133169127480,"gmtCreate":1705505073136,"gmtModify":1705505077728,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cost control and technology moat can be sustained? The competition is definitely not asleep","listText":"Cost control and technology moat can be sustained? The competition is definitely not asleep","text":"Cost control and technology moat can be sustained? The competition is definitely not asleep","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/264133169127480","repostId":"1167751965","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167751965","pubTimestamp":1705503600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1167751965?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-01-17 23:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167751965","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryInvestor sentiment toward Nvidia remains bullish, but the stock has become more expensive, increasing the potential downside.Nvidia's position in the AI market is reminiscent of Intel's dominan","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_135066100\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Investor sentiment toward Nvidia remains bullish, but the stock has become more expensive, increasing the potential downside.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia&#39;s position in the AI market is reminiscent of Intel&#39;s dominance in the data center, leaving room for competition to enter with similar products at lower prices.</p></li><li><p>The risk of losing market share and pricing power could drastically reduce Nvidia&#39;s revenue and earnings, despite the potential for further growth in the AI market.</p></li><li><p>Given Nvidia&#39;s excessive pricing and margins, and the ramp in competition from Intel and AMD, this downside risk has become much greater than any further upside after the 3x increase in total revenue.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d51d9ab95648a09e72e7a3cf3b2599ea\" alt=\"Justin Sullivan\" title=\"Justin Sullivan\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"505\"/><span>Justin Sullivan</span></p><h2 id=\"id_4120205707\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Investment Thesis</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Even after an extraordinary rally to join the club of trillion-dollar market cap companies, it seems investor sentiment regarding Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) remains very bullish, with some even claiming that the stock has only become cheaper.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">However, it has not. In absolute terms, the stock has only become more expensive (obviously), which means the possible downside has only become greater, arguably more so than the upside going forward, even despite the valuation at first sight not being excessive.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">One cannot predict how much demand Nvidia will see in the future for its chips. While, sure, the explosion of demand due to GAI has accelerated what was already a multiyear uptrend, investors do have to weigh the growth of AI (on one hand) against the competitive dynamics of a player with very high market share and pricing, which it has the risk of losing (on the other hand).</p><h2 id=\"id_820570108\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Background</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">To be sure, the thesis here isn&#39;t that Nvidia is necessarily overvalued or in a bubble. Given the explosion in sales and profits, since that is of course what the stock price reflects (with a certain multiple of sales and/or profits), it has indeed pretty much grown in line with these results. So already in previous coverage of the stock, I had conceded to being wrong about Nvidia: Nvidia: All Bets Are Off.</p><h2 id=\"id_3286423564\" style=\"text-align: left;\">History and Competitive Landscape</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">A while ago, Intel (INTC) CEO Pat Gelsinger said that, while he acknowledged Nvidia&#39;s success in this market, it was nevertheless the result of luck. To recap, AI is a highly parallelizable workload. As such, when it started gaining prevalence (since 2012), it was found to run faster on GPUs (originally created for gaming where many pixels need to be rendered simultaneously) than on the more general-purpose CPU. That&#39;s why Nvidia mostly benefited from the rise of AI rather than Intel.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">It wasn&#39;t until 2017, however, that Nvidia introduced the first deep learning-specific acceleration into its GPUs with its Tensor Cores. By that time, Intel too had already introduced the VNNI instruction into its Xeon Phi line-up (which was its many-core CPU at the time that competed against Nvidia in HPC) and had also acquired Nervana in 2016, the predecessor to its 2019 Habana acquisition that it currently positions as its competitive solution to Nvidia.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In that regard, my own view would be that it has been a combination of luck and skill. While Nvidia clearly has strongly executed on its roadmap, Intel on the other hand stumbled (both with its own 10nm process, which caused the delay and reduced the competitiveness of practically all of its products, as well as by axing all Nervana development in favor of restarting with Habana) right as the demand for AI (hardware) first started meaningfully increasing around 2017.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Besides Intel and AMD (AMD), which like Intel has also been late to launch a competitive product, there had also been a boom in AI chip start-ups. None of those has been very successful either. Lastly, many bigger companies also started developing their own chips with more mixed results, such as the Google (GOOG) TPU and Amazon (AMZN) Trainium and Inferentia.</p><h2 id=\"id_3218883224\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Implications</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Nvidia&#39;s position in the AI market seems reminiscent of Intel in the data center up to about half a decade ago. Intel had the market completely for itself, as AMD was still in the midst of developing Epyc and getting some initial adoption. While this resulted in some criticism as Intel rolled out its highest-specced Xeons for $10k or even more at the time, arguably those dwarf in comparison to the pricing of Nvidia&#39;s latest H100 (and upcoming H200) series, which during this time of shortages has ballooned to tens of thousands of dollars (and probably was never less than $20k or so, to begin with). For comparison, TSMC (TSM) charges less than $20k for a N5-class wafer, which contains on the order of 70 chips.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In my view, this means that Nvidia is leaving the market wide open for competition to enter with competitive (similarly performing) products at a potentially substantially reduced price. This is starting to happen from both AMD and Intel. Although many bulls have argued that Nvidia has a moat with its CUDA software, as Pat Gelsinger has said this is a shallow moat at best as software development mostly occurs in higher-level languages such as Python.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Since for any rational business there is no fundamental reason to buy an Nvidia chip over a similarly performing (but much cheaper) Intel or AMD chip, this means that traditional competitive market dynamics at some point should kick in. This will most likely result in <em>both</em> market share and pricing power loss for Nvidia.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">From that view, investors should ask themselves if they would rather invest in a ~$200B or ~$1.35T company. Note that <em>both</em> companies, so also the smaller one, have more than enough resources to develop an AI chip. And since the power and performance characteristics of these chips are largely determined/limited by process technology, the resulting chips should indeed be quite similar (except for price). That is exactly what it seen in the market. In fact, since Intel&#39;s Gaudi series lacks traditional GPU functionality, the Gaudi chips are actually noticeably superior to their Nvidia competitor on the same process technology (see MLPerf).</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">To use some concrete math, if Nvidia would lose half of its market share and had to reduce prices by half, then its revenue would drop by 75%. Note that Nvidia&#39;s margin is so high that reducing the price by 2x is still a very conservative scenario. If one treats these chips as commodities such as in the memory (DRAM/NAND) space (which arguably isn&#39;t all that far-fetched), then Nvidia&#39;s prices would literally have to drop by on the order of 10x. (Note that this estimate has been obtained by only considering the cost of the silicon chip, any other components such as the HBM memory and CoWoS packaging are neglected.)</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Ultimately, this is the kind of risk, which is far from unrealistic, that investors at least must consider, and then weigh this compared to any possible further upside that has <em>not</em> yet been baked into the stock price. Since being valued as a growth stock means there is already some considerable further increase in demand baked into the price, demand would have to surpass even these levels for the share price to increase anything <em>at all</em>.</p><h2 id=\"id_2288305640\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Additional Considerations</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">As stated, it is not possible to predict the future demand for AI hardware. Even if the risk thesis as described so far exactly plays out, there is still the possibility that the market might grow faster and/or become larger than any theoretical loss in revenue from lower prices and market share, as, for example, AMD has predicted at its event late last year. Also, similar to Intel, inertia would already go a long way towards preventing too sudden market share shifts.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">So, to recap some possible drivers of demand for investors to consider for themselves. One is the difference between training and inference. Training a model must be done only once, so the demand for training hardware likely has a quite finite limit. Nevertheless, the training workload is such that it could quite literally use an <em>unlimited</em> amount of computing power, since training the largest models on enormous amounts of data could take many months, and even then it would still be possible to further increase the amount of data and/or parameters.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Hence, this likely has some implications with regard to price elasticity. For example, instead of companies buying a certain number of chips, instead, they might have a certain budget in dollars, and they might just buy as much chips as they can within that budget. So, if Nvidia would reduce the price by 2x, they might just buy 2x more GPUs.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Note, though, that in this case, since even the largest clouds and big tech companies only have a finite budget, there should indeed be some upper limit on demand, and investors would have to answer why, besides the shortages, this limit would not have been reached yet in the wake of the ChatGPT hype, with Nvidia&#39;s run rate approaching $80B (which in terms of the total cost of a data center only represents spending on GPUs and networking), and instead would continue to grow considerably for years to come.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">On the other hand, and perhaps this is the answer to the previous question, while inference (using the trained model) is generally considered to be the main AI application in the long-term, it nevertheless has somewhat different compute requirements, as the computation cost of a single inference is generally much lower. Instead of training a model for months, in inference one requires results in seconds or milliseconds.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">This in turn means that it could be more suitable for other chips than GPUs, such as CPUs with on-chip accelerators. Intel has such hardware with its latest Xeon and Core Ultra server and client/edge CPUs. Indeed, inference in some/many cases/applications could simply happen on-device instead of on an expensive Nvidia GPU in the cloud.</p><h2 id=\"id_251675249\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Financial Discussion</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">As a reminder, the Nvidia rally started due to the guidance for $11B revenue in the (calendar) Q2 2023 quarter, up from around $7B. Since then, the revenue has surged to over $18B in the most recently reported quarter, with guidance for $20B in Q4, implying a tripling in revenue in just a few quarters. Given its extremely high margins, EPS has similarly surged from ~$1 to ~$4 (which has allowed the stock to quadruple without changing the valuation multiple).</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The fact that basically all this (additional) revenue and profit is generated in/from the data center also shows both the data center revenue TAM expansion as well as the increase in revenue market share, as just a few years ago basically the vast majority of the data center silicon logic market was captured by Intel.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The forward estimate is for over $90B in revenue in 2024. While this is very large in dollar terms, unlike anything even Intel reported when it still had a CPU monopoly (Intel&#39;s highest was on the order of $30B data center revenue, which included its telco networking business), in terms of units this would correspond to roughly 2 million H100/H200s at a price of $40k per unit. This is an ASP (average selling price) that is on the order of 40x larger than either AMD or Intel. This means Intel will actually still sell a lot more silicon into the data center (millions of Xeons each quarter), just at a much lower price.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">While bulls may see this disparity in ASP between both as Nvidia&#39;s crowning achievement, for more sceptical investors this should present one large red flag. As a monopolist, Nvidia enjoys an absolute pricing power, which has resulted in prices very far from having any relation to the actual cost of goods sold of the hardware. As mentioned, Nvidia could likely drop its prices by 10x and still end up with margins in line or above the industry. Clearly, selling 2 million H100/H200s at $4k per unit would provide a very different financial picture. Although, as also discussed there could be some price elasticity considerations in that case, as Nvidia would then probably sell a lot more of those $4k chips.</p><h2 id=\"id_1643248076\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Valuation</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The valuation is a $1.35T market cap. Based on Q4 guidance of $20B revenue and analyst expectation of $4.5 EPS, this represents a valuation of 17x P/S and 30x P/E. This is not excessively expensive given the supposed further growth through 2024, catching up from the shortages. While 17x P/S normally should be considered expensive, the fact that EPS is only a 30x multiple again shows its extremely high margins.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In the picture of the overall thesis, the main point here hasn&#39;t been that the stock is overvalued, it is rather the risk that Nvidia is currently capitalizing as basically the only scaled supplier of chips powering the LLM/AI explosion. So as more suppliers (read: Intel and AMD) ramp their competitive products, more healthy market dynamics should kick in, forcing prices downwards and reducing Nvidia&#39;s market share. Both (for now hypothetical) trends would drastically reduce revenue and earnings going forward. <em>It is only then that the stock would become expensive.</em></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">So even if demand for these AI chips/workloads increases further in the years ahead, in principle confirming the thesis that AI is and remains a growth opportunity, this potential scenario could nevertheless mean that Nvidia&#39;s revenue might be near an all-time/long-term high. This is similar to what has been discussed in the All-In podcast.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In essence, the question is how to bring Nvidia&#39;s monopolistic position into the valuation, with some of the scenarios ranging from maintaining market share and pricing power (which given the billions of dollars Nvidia&#39;s current customers could potentially save by switching suppliers seems very unlikely), to seeing a dramatic decline in both, so something in between.</p><h2 id=\"id_2379261893\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Risks</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Besides the risks (for both bull and bear cases) already discussed, given that Nvidia has been in supply constraint, at least some of the future growth is already pretty much locked in. Nevertheless, this still does not rule out the possibility of a correction in demand later.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Secondly, one of the main arguments is that Nvidia does not have a moat since/and chips for AI are basically commodities. While this might be the case to approximation, factors such as inertia could still prevent quick market share swings.</p><h2 id=\"id_3807732764\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Why Would Chips Be Commodities?</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In extension of the previous risk section, a major part of this thesis hinges on the statement that AI chips should to at least some extent be considered commodities, where healthy competition between multiple vendors is possible, which obviously has major implications on the possible margins that can be obtained in this market.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">This might be a bit of a more controversial statement, since after all chip design often takes many years and millions up to hundreds of millions of dollars. In addition, aspects should as programmability also require a development burden. Indeed, these observations alone clearly indicate that it can&#39;t be a pure commodity.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The main argument is that AI is a highly parallel workload. It is basically just pure (repetitive) math, for which hardware capability is measured in operations per second (OPS). This means that the base unit (the equivalent of a single core in a multi-core CPU) is a very simple core, which is then repeated a gazillion times in order to create a large, powerful chip. So while the details may be a bit more complicated, there really isn&#39;t much room for differentiation since the goal is simply to obtain as many TOPS (Tera-OPS) as possible. As discussed, both AMD and Intel by now have launched very similarly performing chips.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Also note that this idea of a small core (&#34;cell&#34;) is quite similar to the main commodity market in semiconductors, which is memory and storage. In memory, a small memory cell is indeed also repeated a gazillion times. While, again, the details may be a bit more complicated (for example, in NAND there are things like controllers), there really isn&#39;t much level for differentiation, at least not beyond the process technology level.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Overall, with reported price tags ranging from $20-40k per chip, even if this includes things like HBM and a PCB, in the CPU space not too long ago $4-8k (about a 5-10x lower price) already would have been considered very expensive even for the most high-end chips. Again, there is no fundamental technology in an AI chip that warrants such an excessive premium (compared to already premium-priced CPUs). In fact, as just argued CPUs are actually more advanced than GPUs/NPUs (since a single CPU core is orders larger than one GPU/NPU core).</p><h2 id=\"id_3160269734\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Investor Takeaway</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Be fearful when others are greedy. Various anecdotal reports keep surfacing from people considering Nvidia to be cheaper than it was before its rally, and hence, keep buying Nvidia at the current price. However, with a $1.35T market cap, Nvidia is far from cheap in absolute terms.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The main warning is that using forward estimates as gospel entails serious risks, and as discussed regarding Nvidia and the LLM hype, these risks are very legitimate. Note that risk could simply mean an unknown, and indeed, even before any other considerations, there are many unknowns regarding the evolution of AI hardware demand. While, granted, in the bull case the potential demand for AI computation/hardware is virtually limitless, there are nevertheless various economic constraints and realities. With revenue already in the tens of billions of dollars, this is charting into the unknown of what has ever been seen before in the data center market, never mind any further upside.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Nevertheless, that is exactly what is required to capture investor-grade returns going forward. So as discussed, with legitimate competition from both Intel and AMD seriously ramping up, and no moat (having debunked the CUDA myth) that would fundamentally prevent competitors from taking market share, nor any real possible differentiation that would in principle prevent prices from going to the bottom, Nvidia&#39;s margins at the end of the day are simply too high for this not to be a real and large concern. There <em>is simply nothing at all in Nvidia&#39;s chips that warrants the excessive prices/margins that it asks its customers.</em> The only logical expectation is for natural competitive market dynamics to kick in, to Nvidia&#39;s shareholders&#39; large detriment, with the first signs of this indeed becoming visible from AMD and Intel.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Investors who feel lucky (as Pat Gelsinger has argued) might buy Nvidia based on the case of ever-growing demand and miraculously maintaining market share and pricing power. But any rational and risk-aware investor should probably avoid the stock based on too many unknowns, uncertainties, and risks of a stock with a very elevated valuation.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-01-17 23:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4663197-nvidia-be-fearful-when-others-are-greedy><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryInvestor sentiment toward Nvidia remains bullish, but the stock has become more expensive, increasing the potential downside.Nvidia's position in the AI market is reminiscent of Intel's ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4663197-nvidia-be-fearful-when-others-are-greedy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4663197-nvidia-be-fearful-when-others-are-greedy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1167751965","content_text":"SummaryInvestor sentiment toward Nvidia remains bullish, but the stock has become more expensive, increasing the potential downside.Nvidia's position in the AI market is reminiscent of Intel's dominance in the data center, leaving room for competition to enter with similar products at lower prices.The risk of losing market share and pricing power could drastically reduce Nvidia's revenue and earnings, despite the potential for further growth in the AI market.Given Nvidia's excessive pricing and margins, and the ramp in competition from Intel and AMD, this downside risk has become much greater than any further upside after the 3x increase in total revenue.Justin SullivanInvestment ThesisEven after an extraordinary rally to join the club of trillion-dollar market cap companies, it seems investor sentiment regarding Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) remains very bullish, with some even claiming that the stock has only become cheaper.However, it has not. In absolute terms, the stock has only become more expensive (obviously), which means the possible downside has only become greater, arguably more so than the upside going forward, even despite the valuation at first sight not being excessive.One cannot predict how much demand Nvidia will see in the future for its chips. While, sure, the explosion of demand due to GAI has accelerated what was already a multiyear uptrend, investors do have to weigh the growth of AI (on one hand) against the competitive dynamics of a player with very high market share and pricing, which it has the risk of losing (on the other hand).BackgroundTo be sure, the thesis here isn't that Nvidia is necessarily overvalued or in a bubble. Given the explosion in sales and profits, since that is of course what the stock price reflects (with a certain multiple of sales and/or profits), it has indeed pretty much grown in line with these results. So already in previous coverage of the stock, I had conceded to being wrong about Nvidia: Nvidia: All Bets Are Off.History and Competitive LandscapeA while ago, Intel (INTC) CEO Pat Gelsinger said that, while he acknowledged Nvidia's success in this market, it was nevertheless the result of luck. To recap, AI is a highly parallelizable workload. As such, when it started gaining prevalence (since 2012), it was found to run faster on GPUs (originally created for gaming where many pixels need to be rendered simultaneously) than on the more general-purpose CPU. That's why Nvidia mostly benefited from the rise of AI rather than Intel.It wasn't until 2017, however, that Nvidia introduced the first deep learning-specific acceleration into its GPUs with its Tensor Cores. By that time, Intel too had already introduced the VNNI instruction into its Xeon Phi line-up (which was its many-core CPU at the time that competed against Nvidia in HPC) and had also acquired Nervana in 2016, the predecessor to its 2019 Habana acquisition that it currently positions as its competitive solution to Nvidia.In that regard, my own view would be that it has been a combination of luck and skill. While Nvidia clearly has strongly executed on its roadmap, Intel on the other hand stumbled (both with its own 10nm process, which caused the delay and reduced the competitiveness of practically all of its products, as well as by axing all Nervana development in favor of restarting with Habana) right as the demand for AI (hardware) first started meaningfully increasing around 2017.Besides Intel and AMD (AMD), which like Intel has also been late to launch a competitive product, there had also been a boom in AI chip start-ups. None of those has been very successful either. Lastly, many bigger companies also started developing their own chips with more mixed results, such as the Google (GOOG) TPU and Amazon (AMZN) Trainium and Inferentia.ImplicationsNvidia's position in the AI market seems reminiscent of Intel in the data center up to about half a decade ago. Intel had the market completely for itself, as AMD was still in the midst of developing Epyc and getting some initial adoption. While this resulted in some criticism as Intel rolled out its highest-specced Xeons for $10k or even more at the time, arguably those dwarf in comparison to the pricing of Nvidia's latest H100 (and upcoming H200) series, which during this time of shortages has ballooned to tens of thousands of dollars (and probably was never less than $20k or so, to begin with). For comparison, TSMC (TSM) charges less than $20k for a N5-class wafer, which contains on the order of 70 chips.In my view, this means that Nvidia is leaving the market wide open for competition to enter with competitive (similarly performing) products at a potentially substantially reduced price. This is starting to happen from both AMD and Intel. Although many bulls have argued that Nvidia has a moat with its CUDA software, as Pat Gelsinger has said this is a shallow moat at best as software development mostly occurs in higher-level languages such as Python.Since for any rational business there is no fundamental reason to buy an Nvidia chip over a similarly performing (but much cheaper) Intel or AMD chip, this means that traditional competitive market dynamics at some point should kick in. This will most likely result in both market share and pricing power loss for Nvidia.From that view, investors should ask themselves if they would rather invest in a ~$200B or ~$1.35T company. Note that both companies, so also the smaller one, have more than enough resources to develop an AI chip. And since the power and performance characteristics of these chips are largely determined/limited by process technology, the resulting chips should indeed be quite similar (except for price). That is exactly what it seen in the market. In fact, since Intel's Gaudi series lacks traditional GPU functionality, the Gaudi chips are actually noticeably superior to their Nvidia competitor on the same process technology (see MLPerf).To use some concrete math, if Nvidia would lose half of its market share and had to reduce prices by half, then its revenue would drop by 75%. Note that Nvidia's margin is so high that reducing the price by 2x is still a very conservative scenario. If one treats these chips as commodities such as in the memory (DRAM/NAND) space (which arguably isn't all that far-fetched), then Nvidia's prices would literally have to drop by on the order of 10x. (Note that this estimate has been obtained by only considering the cost of the silicon chip, any other components such as the HBM memory and CoWoS packaging are neglected.)Ultimately, this is the kind of risk, which is far from unrealistic, that investors at least must consider, and then weigh this compared to any possible further upside that has not yet been baked into the stock price. Since being valued as a growth stock means there is already some considerable further increase in demand baked into the price, demand would have to surpass even these levels for the share price to increase anything at all.Additional ConsiderationsAs stated, it is not possible to predict the future demand for AI hardware. Even if the risk thesis as described so far exactly plays out, there is still the possibility that the market might grow faster and/or become larger than any theoretical loss in revenue from lower prices and market share, as, for example, AMD has predicted at its event late last year. Also, similar to Intel, inertia would already go a long way towards preventing too sudden market share shifts.So, to recap some possible drivers of demand for investors to consider for themselves. One is the difference between training and inference. Training a model must be done only once, so the demand for training hardware likely has a quite finite limit. Nevertheless, the training workload is such that it could quite literally use an unlimited amount of computing power, since training the largest models on enormous amounts of data could take many months, and even then it would still be possible to further increase the amount of data and/or parameters.Hence, this likely has some implications with regard to price elasticity. For example, instead of companies buying a certain number of chips, instead, they might have a certain budget in dollars, and they might just buy as much chips as they can within that budget. So, if Nvidia would reduce the price by 2x, they might just buy 2x more GPUs.Note, though, that in this case, since even the largest clouds and big tech companies only have a finite budget, there should indeed be some upper limit on demand, and investors would have to answer why, besides the shortages, this limit would not have been reached yet in the wake of the ChatGPT hype, with Nvidia's run rate approaching $80B (which in terms of the total cost of a data center only represents spending on GPUs and networking), and instead would continue to grow considerably for years to come.On the other hand, and perhaps this is the answer to the previous question, while inference (using the trained model) is generally considered to be the main AI application in the long-term, it nevertheless has somewhat different compute requirements, as the computation cost of a single inference is generally much lower. Instead of training a model for months, in inference one requires results in seconds or milliseconds.This in turn means that it could be more suitable for other chips than GPUs, such as CPUs with on-chip accelerators. Intel has such hardware with its latest Xeon and Core Ultra server and client/edge CPUs. Indeed, inference in some/many cases/applications could simply happen on-device instead of on an expensive Nvidia GPU in the cloud.Financial DiscussionAs a reminder, the Nvidia rally started due to the guidance for $11B revenue in the (calendar) Q2 2023 quarter, up from around $7B. Since then, the revenue has surged to over $18B in the most recently reported quarter, with guidance for $20B in Q4, implying a tripling in revenue in just a few quarters. Given its extremely high margins, EPS has similarly surged from ~$1 to ~$4 (which has allowed the stock to quadruple without changing the valuation multiple).The fact that basically all this (additional) revenue and profit is generated in/from the data center also shows both the data center revenue TAM expansion as well as the increase in revenue market share, as just a few years ago basically the vast majority of the data center silicon logic market was captured by Intel.The forward estimate is for over $90B in revenue in 2024. While this is very large in dollar terms, unlike anything even Intel reported when it still had a CPU monopoly (Intel's highest was on the order of $30B data center revenue, which included its telco networking business), in terms of units this would correspond to roughly 2 million H100/H200s at a price of $40k per unit. This is an ASP (average selling price) that is on the order of 40x larger than either AMD or Intel. This means Intel will actually still sell a lot more silicon into the data center (millions of Xeons each quarter), just at a much lower price.While bulls may see this disparity in ASP between both as Nvidia's crowning achievement, for more sceptical investors this should present one large red flag. As a monopolist, Nvidia enjoys an absolute pricing power, which has resulted in prices very far from having any relation to the actual cost of goods sold of the hardware. As mentioned, Nvidia could likely drop its prices by 10x and still end up with margins in line or above the industry. Clearly, selling 2 million H100/H200s at $4k per unit would provide a very different financial picture. Although, as also discussed there could be some price elasticity considerations in that case, as Nvidia would then probably sell a lot more of those $4k chips.ValuationThe valuation is a $1.35T market cap. Based on Q4 guidance of $20B revenue and analyst expectation of $4.5 EPS, this represents a valuation of 17x P/S and 30x P/E. This is not excessively expensive given the supposed further growth through 2024, catching up from the shortages. While 17x P/S normally should be considered expensive, the fact that EPS is only a 30x multiple again shows its extremely high margins.In the picture of the overall thesis, the main point here hasn't been that the stock is overvalued, it is rather the risk that Nvidia is currently capitalizing as basically the only scaled supplier of chips powering the LLM/AI explosion. So as more suppliers (read: Intel and AMD) ramp their competitive products, more healthy market dynamics should kick in, forcing prices downwards and reducing Nvidia's market share. Both (for now hypothetical) trends would drastically reduce revenue and earnings going forward. It is only then that the stock would become expensive.So even if demand for these AI chips/workloads increases further in the years ahead, in principle confirming the thesis that AI is and remains a growth opportunity, this potential scenario could nevertheless mean that Nvidia's revenue might be near an all-time/long-term high. This is similar to what has been discussed in the All-In podcast.In essence, the question is how to bring Nvidia's monopolistic position into the valuation, with some of the scenarios ranging from maintaining market share and pricing power (which given the billions of dollars Nvidia's current customers could potentially save by switching suppliers seems very unlikely), to seeing a dramatic decline in both, so something in between.RisksBesides the risks (for both bull and bear cases) already discussed, given that Nvidia has been in supply constraint, at least some of the future growth is already pretty much locked in. Nevertheless, this still does not rule out the possibility of a correction in demand later.Secondly, one of the main arguments is that Nvidia does not have a moat since/and chips for AI are basically commodities. While this might be the case to approximation, factors such as inertia could still prevent quick market share swings.Why Would Chips Be Commodities?In extension of the previous risk section, a major part of this thesis hinges on the statement that AI chips should to at least some extent be considered commodities, where healthy competition between multiple vendors is possible, which obviously has major implications on the possible margins that can be obtained in this market.This might be a bit of a more controversial statement, since after all chip design often takes many years and millions up to hundreds of millions of dollars. In addition, aspects should as programmability also require a development burden. Indeed, these observations alone clearly indicate that it can't be a pure commodity.The main argument is that AI is a highly parallel workload. It is basically just pure (repetitive) math, for which hardware capability is measured in operations per second (OPS). This means that the base unit (the equivalent of a single core in a multi-core CPU) is a very simple core, which is then repeated a gazillion times in order to create a large, powerful chip. So while the details may be a bit more complicated, there really isn't much room for differentiation since the goal is simply to obtain as many TOPS (Tera-OPS) as possible. As discussed, both AMD and Intel by now have launched very similarly performing chips.Also note that this idea of a small core (\"cell\") is quite similar to the main commodity market in semiconductors, which is memory and storage. In memory, a small memory cell is indeed also repeated a gazillion times. While, again, the details may be a bit more complicated (for example, in NAND there are things like controllers), there really isn't much level for differentiation, at least not beyond the process technology level.Overall, with reported price tags ranging from $20-40k per chip, even if this includes things like HBM and a PCB, in the CPU space not too long ago $4-8k (about a 5-10x lower price) already would have been considered very expensive even for the most high-end chips. Again, there is no fundamental technology in an AI chip that warrants such an excessive premium (compared to already premium-priced CPUs). In fact, as just argued CPUs are actually more advanced than GPUs/NPUs (since a single CPU core is orders larger than one GPU/NPU core).Investor TakeawayBe fearful when others are greedy. Various anecdotal reports keep surfacing from people considering Nvidia to be cheaper than it was before its rally, and hence, keep buying Nvidia at the current price. However, with a $1.35T market cap, Nvidia is far from cheap in absolute terms.The main warning is that using forward estimates as gospel entails serious risks, and as discussed regarding Nvidia and the LLM hype, these risks are very legitimate. Note that risk could simply mean an unknown, and indeed, even before any other considerations, there are many unknowns regarding the evolution of AI hardware demand. While, granted, in the bull case the potential demand for AI computation/hardware is virtually limitless, there are nevertheless various economic constraints and realities. With revenue already in the tens of billions of dollars, this is charting into the unknown of what has ever been seen before in the data center market, never mind any further upside.Nevertheless, that is exactly what is required to capture investor-grade returns going forward. So as discussed, with legitimate competition from both Intel and AMD seriously ramping up, and no moat (having debunked the CUDA myth) that would fundamentally prevent competitors from taking market share, nor any real possible differentiation that would in principle prevent prices from going to the bottom, Nvidia's margins at the end of the day are simply too high for this not to be a real and large concern. There is simply nothing at all in Nvidia's chips that warrants the excessive prices/margins that it asks its customers. The only logical expectation is for natural competitive market dynamics to kick in, to Nvidia's shareholders' large detriment, with the first signs of this indeed becoming visible from AMD and Intel.Investors who feel lucky (as Pat Gelsinger has argued) might buy Nvidia based on the case of ever-growing demand and miraculously maintaining market share and pricing power. But any rational and risk-aware investor should probably avoid the stock based on too many unknowns, uncertainties, and risks of a stock with a very elevated valuation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":263705467031712,"gmtCreate":1705385067612,"gmtModify":1705385072488,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"re-stocking demand \"may\" pick up... the keyword is \"may\". Then what about profit margins?","listText":"re-stocking demand \"may\" pick up... the keyword is \"may\". Then what about profit margins?","text":"re-stocking demand \"may\" pick up... the keyword is \"may\". Then what about profit margins?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/263705467031712","repostId":"2403700207","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2403700207","pubTimestamp":1705381452,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2403700207?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-01-16 13:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"TSMC's Q4 Profit to Slide 23%, Focus on Rebounding Demand This Year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2403700207","media":"StreetInsider","summary":"Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd is expected to report a 23% drop in fourth-quarter profit on Thursday, but analysts predict better growth this year on the back of rebounding demand.The likel","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd is expected to report a 23% drop in fourth-quarter profit on Thursday, but analysts predict better growth this year on the back of rebounding demand.</p><p>The likely decline in profit also reflects a strong performance in 2022, when the company, whose customers include Apple and Nvidia, was still riding high on pent-up post-pandemic demand.</p><p>The world&#39;s largest contract chipmaker is set to report net profit of T$226.4 billion ($7.21 billion) for the October to December period - its third straight quarter of profit decline, according to an LSEG SmartEstimate drawn from 20 analysts. SmartEstimates give greater weighting to forecasts from analysts who are more consistently accurate.</p><p>That compares to the year-earlier net profit of T$295.9 billion.</p><p>Revenue in the final three months of last year came in at T$625.5 billion ($20.10 billion), according to Reuters calculations from TSMC data released last week, compared with $19.93 billion in the year-earlier period, but that still beat both the company&#39;s and market&#39;s expectations.</p><p>Global demand for semiconductors began to weaken in the second half of 2022, but analysts say inventories at smartphone and computer makers are running down and restocking demand is expected to pick up.</p><p>Given that, much of Thursday&#39;s focus will be on TSMC&#39;s outlook for this year.</p><p>Fubon Securities analysts said that having previously expressed concern for TSMC&#39;s first quarter outlook, they now believed Apple wafer demand remains &#34;steady in the short term&#34;.</p><p>&#34;Although there will be seasonal slowdown in 1Q24, which is widely known by the market, we have not seen additional order cuts.&#34;</p><p>KGI Securities analysts said they expected first quarter sales to outperform typical slow season seasonality and that for the full year it saw mid-20% top-line growth in U.S. dollar terms due to demand recovery and silicon content driven by 5G and high performance computing applications.</p><p>The AI boom has helped drive up the price of shares in Asia&#39;s most valuable company, with TSMC&#39;s Taipei-listed stock having surged 32% in 2023, compared with a 27% gain for the broader market.</p><p>TSMC is due to report at 0600 GMT on Thursday.</p><p>($1 = 31.4220 Taiwan dollars)</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_streetinsider","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>TSMC's Q4 Profit to Slide 23%, Focus on Rebounding Demand This Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTSMC's Q4 Profit to Slide 23%, Focus on Rebounding Demand This Year\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-01-16 13:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=22630752><strong>StreetInsider</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd is expected to report a 23% drop in fourth-quarter profit on Thursday, but analysts predict better growth this year on the back of rebounding demand.The ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=22630752\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=22630752","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2403700207","content_text":"Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd is expected to report a 23% drop in fourth-quarter profit on Thursday, but analysts predict better growth this year on the back of rebounding demand.The likely decline in profit also reflects a strong performance in 2022, when the company, whose customers include Apple and Nvidia, was still riding high on pent-up post-pandemic demand.The world's largest contract chipmaker is set to report net profit of T$226.4 billion ($7.21 billion) for the October to December period - its third straight quarter of profit decline, according to an LSEG SmartEstimate drawn from 20 analysts. SmartEstimates give greater weighting to forecasts from analysts who are more consistently accurate.That compares to the year-earlier net profit of T$295.9 billion.Revenue in the final three months of last year came in at T$625.5 billion ($20.10 billion), according to Reuters calculations from TSMC data released last week, compared with $19.93 billion in the year-earlier period, but that still beat both the company's and market's expectations.Global demand for semiconductors began to weaken in the second half of 2022, but analysts say inventories at smartphone and computer makers are running down and restocking demand is expected to pick up.Given that, much of Thursday's focus will be on TSMC's outlook for this year.Fubon Securities analysts said that having previously expressed concern for TSMC's first quarter outlook, they now believed Apple wafer demand remains \"steady in the short term\".\"Although there will be seasonal slowdown in 1Q24, which is widely known by the market, we have not seen additional order cuts.\"KGI Securities analysts said they expected first quarter sales to outperform typical slow season seasonality and that for the full year it saw mid-20% top-line growth in U.S. dollar terms due to demand recovery and silicon content driven by 5G and high performance computing applications.The AI boom has helped drive up the price of shares in Asia's most valuable company, with TSMC's Taipei-listed stock having surged 32% in 2023, compared with a 27% gain for the broader market.TSMC is due to report at 0600 GMT on Thursday.($1 = 31.4220 Taiwan dollars)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":263704907989072,"gmtCreate":1705384923935,"gmtModify":1705384928598,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"3-5% pullback = buying opportunity?! Would the wars have stopped by then?","listText":"3-5% pullback = buying opportunity?! Would the wars have stopped by then?","text":"3-5% pullback = buying opportunity?! Would the wars have stopped by then?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/263704907989072","repostId":"2403723187","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2403723187","pubTimestamp":1705377542,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2403723187?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-01-16 11:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed Will Cut Rates In March, Or Else","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2403723187","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Stocks have rebounded, but the market has been consolidating sideways due to geopolitical tensions and concerns about inflation.Investors fear that the Federal Reserve may delay easing monetary policy","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Stocks have rebounded, but the market has been consolidating sideways due to geopolitical tensions and concerns about inflation.</p></li><li><p>Investors fear that the Federal Reserve may delay easing monetary policy, but the bond market suggests a rate cut is likely in March.</p></li><li><p>I expect a period of consolidation and a potential 3-5% pullback in the S&amp;P 500, but view it as a buying opportunity.</p></li></ul><p>Stocks erased the prior week’s losses with the S&amp;P 500 moving into positive territory for the year, but the major market averages have spent most of the past two weeks churning sideways in what should continue to be a healthy period of consolidation. Fueling that consolidation are concerns about the escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East with the US and UK launching airstrikes on Houthi targets to dissuade the group from further attacks on ships in the Red Sea. There are also worries that this will elevate transportation costs and oil prices, slowing the Fed’s progress in bringing down the rate of inflation. I don’t see these developments undermining the disinflationary trend, a soft landing in the US, or the ongoing bull market. Therefore, any pullbacks that result should be viewed as opportunities to invest, as they were in February and October of last year.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66a4b03f69c3cf6922142ce9a688a6d1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"174\"/></p><p>Edward Jones</p><p>A greater concern for me would be a delay by the Federal Reserve in starting to ease what is now an overly restrictive monetary policy. There was consternation that this might happen after last week’s Consumer Price Index report for December, which was modestly hotter than expectations. Fears dissipated the next day when the Producer Price Index decreased 0.1% for the third month in a row, while the core rate was unchanged. The core rate is up just 1.8% over the past year, which is back to the level we last saw at the end of 2020. This is why the 2-year Treasury yield, which is viewed as a proxy for where the Fed’s benchmark rate will stand approximately one year from now, fell to 4.14%. The bond market is reaffirming the consensus view that the Fed will ease policy as soon as March and lower the Fed funds rates by at least 100 basis points this year.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e920dd12c6a3726eafc2910d8bd78663\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>The bond market gave us the same insight when the Fed’s target rate was still near zero by lifting the 2-year yield nine months in advance of the Fed’s first rate hike in March 2022. The 2-year yield was already up to 1.6% when that rate hike came, and it approached 5% as early as November 2022.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ede8a3450e577a999dfc3d48b4756fff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\"/></p><p>Stockcharts</p><p>It is doing the same thing in reverse by falling from its peak of 5.19% to the recent low of 4.14% well in advance of the Fed’s first rate cut. Note that the Fed received tremendous criticism for waiting too long to start raising rates, as policy changes take months to filter through the economy. Chairman Powell knows this, and he does not want to make the same mistake on the way down.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/022f4a4e00f412a0b0708b41153ea305\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\"/></p><p>Forbes</p><p>The rate of inflation was near its peak of 9% once the Fed started to raise rates from the zero-bound. If it had started a year earlier, I seriously doubt we would have seen 9%. Yet now we have fallen to 3-4% and the policy is still at its most restrictive. If the Fed starts to reduce short-term rates in March and continues at every meeting thereafter, it will be approaching a neutral rate of 3.00-3.5% by the time the rate of inflation is approaching its target of 2%. If it waits until June, I think it will be repeating its previous error. I think Chairman Powell will move in March, as the market is predicting, which should solidify the soft landing in 2024.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cacdfab196a949a467778e1945c01f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"495\"/></p><p>Edward Jones</p><p>I expect this period of consolidation, which may culminate in pullback of 3-5% in the S&amp;P 500 from its 52-week high, to ensue during earnings season, as investors debate earnings growth, the timing of the first rate cut, and the sustainability of the expansion. I view any pullback as an opportunity to add risk to portfolios, as I did in February and October of last year. If the Fed decides to delay cutting rates in March, I will have to reassess my outlook.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed Will Cut Rates In March, Or Else</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed Will Cut Rates In March, Or Else\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-01-16 11:59 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4662780-the-fed-will-cut-rates-in-march-or-else><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stocks have rebounded, but the market has been consolidating sideways due to geopolitical tensions and concerns about inflation.Investors fear that the Federal Reserve may delay easing monetary policy...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4662780-the-fed-will-cut-rates-in-march-or-else\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4662780-the-fed-will-cut-rates-in-march-or-else","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2403723187","content_text":"Stocks have rebounded, but the market has been consolidating sideways due to geopolitical tensions and concerns about inflation.Investors fear that the Federal Reserve may delay easing monetary policy, but the bond market suggests a rate cut is likely in March.I expect a period of consolidation and a potential 3-5% pullback in the S&P 500, but view it as a buying opportunity.Stocks erased the prior week’s losses with the S&P 500 moving into positive territory for the year, but the major market averages have spent most of the past two weeks churning sideways in what should continue to be a healthy period of consolidation. Fueling that consolidation are concerns about the escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East with the US and UK launching airstrikes on Houthi targets to dissuade the group from further attacks on ships in the Red Sea. There are also worries that this will elevate transportation costs and oil prices, slowing the Fed’s progress in bringing down the rate of inflation. I don’t see these developments undermining the disinflationary trend, a soft landing in the US, or the ongoing bull market. Therefore, any pullbacks that result should be viewed as opportunities to invest, as they were in February and October of last year.Edward JonesA greater concern for me would be a delay by the Federal Reserve in starting to ease what is now an overly restrictive monetary policy. There was consternation that this might happen after last week’s Consumer Price Index report for December, which was modestly hotter than expectations. Fears dissipated the next day when the Producer Price Index decreased 0.1% for the third month in a row, while the core rate was unchanged. The core rate is up just 1.8% over the past year, which is back to the level we last saw at the end of 2020. This is why the 2-year Treasury yield, which is viewed as a proxy for where the Fed’s benchmark rate will stand approximately one year from now, fell to 4.14%. The bond market is reaffirming the consensus view that the Fed will ease policy as soon as March and lower the Fed funds rates by at least 100 basis points this year.BloombergThe bond market gave us the same insight when the Fed’s target rate was still near zero by lifting the 2-year yield nine months in advance of the Fed’s first rate hike in March 2022. The 2-year yield was already up to 1.6% when that rate hike came, and it approached 5% as early as November 2022.StockchartsIt is doing the same thing in reverse by falling from its peak of 5.19% to the recent low of 4.14% well in advance of the Fed’s first rate cut. Note that the Fed received tremendous criticism for waiting too long to start raising rates, as policy changes take months to filter through the economy. Chairman Powell knows this, and he does not want to make the same mistake on the way down.ForbesThe rate of inflation was near its peak of 9% once the Fed started to raise rates from the zero-bound. If it had started a year earlier, I seriously doubt we would have seen 9%. Yet now we have fallen to 3-4% and the policy is still at its most restrictive. If the Fed starts to reduce short-term rates in March and continues at every meeting thereafter, it will be approaching a neutral rate of 3.00-3.5% by the time the rate of inflation is approaching its target of 2%. If it waits until June, I think it will be repeating its previous error. I think Chairman Powell will move in March, as the market is predicting, which should solidify the soft landing in 2024.Edward JonesI expect this period of consolidation, which may culminate in pullback of 3-5% in the S&P 500 from its 52-week high, to ensue during earnings season, as investors debate earnings growth, the timing of the first rate cut, and the sustainability of the expansion. I view any pullback as an opportunity to add risk to portfolios, as I did in February and October of last year. If the Fed decides to delay cutting rates in March, I will have to reassess my outlook.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":262296952156296,"gmtCreate":1705071536847,"gmtModify":1705074614685,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> increasing salaries. Manufacturing issues. Late to deliver L4 autonomy. High cost of car loans. Pressure from Chinese manufacturers requiring more protectionist measures from U.S. govt. Sell. Target price $180","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> increasing salaries. Manufacturing issues. Late to deliver L4 autonomy. High cost of car loans. Pressure from Chinese manufacturers requiring more protectionist measures from U.S. govt. Sell. Target price $180","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ increasing salaries. Manufacturing issues. Late to deliver L4 autonomy. High cost of car loans. Pressure from Chinese manufacturers requiring more protectionist measures from U.S. govt. Sell. Target price $180","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/262296952156296","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":259908098609288,"gmtCreate":1704464475258,"gmtModify":1704464479534,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"\"Gives you green light\"... you mean the recommendation is so powerful?","listText":"\"Gives you green light\"... you mean the recommendation is so powerful?","text":"\"Gives you green light\"... you mean the recommendation is so powerful?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/259908098609288","repostId":"2400920362","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":257371707162800,"gmtCreate":1703868926798,"gmtModify":1703868931714,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good, go ahead","listText":"Good, go ahead","text":"Good, go ahead","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/257371707162800","repostId":"2395448087","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2395448087","pubTimestamp":1703863324,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2395448087?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-12-29 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Undervalued Stocks I Am Buying","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2395448087","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"As we close out the year and investors look at Tax Loss Harvesting, today we will discuss 3 options to buy.All 3 stocks offer a combination of growth while also trading at a reasonable valuation.In a ","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>As we close out the year and investors look at Tax Loss Harvesting, today we will discuss 3 options to buy.</p></li><li><p>All 3 stocks offer a combination of growth while also trading at a reasonable valuation.</p></li><li><p>In a time when stocks appear inflated as a whole, today, we look at 3 undervalued positions.</p></li></ul><p>Today we are going to take a look at 3 individual stocks, some of which I get asked about a lot. In today&#39;s piece, I will cover these three stocks and look into why I believe their valuations are intriguing.</p><h2 id=\"id_2658458434\">3 Undervalued Stocks I am Buying</h2><p><strong>Stock #1 - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal Holdings </a></strong></p><p>PayPal Holdings is a Fintech company that was a darling during the pandemic as the stock rose to an all-time high of closing price of $308.53. The stock is far from those prices today as the stock has fallen 80% from those levels down to its $62 price today.</p><p>The company currently trades at a market cap of $67 billion. Over the past 12 months the stock is down 10%, but in the past month, the stock has risen more than 10%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb3e17441365029a105e832d0e980da5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>PayPal was actually founded by a group of individuals, one of those being Elon Musk. After that, PayPal gained popularity when it was purchased by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a> in 2002 and then eventually spun off. The company now is one of the most trusted online payment platforms available to consumers and businesses alike. In addition, the company owns the likes of Venmo, which they are still working to monetize.</p><p>PayPal was an early online payment processing adopter, but there has been a slew of new competitors hitting the market, one of the biggest being the likes of Apple Pay from Apple (AAPL).</p><p>Looking at this chart below, you can see that the company has continued to increase revenues, even in the face of rising competition over the years. Analysts believe that trend will continue moving forward.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffd63f0a29f5f7f7e597e21a97cca88b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"269\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Earnings are expected to follow a similar trend with analysts expecting EPS growth of 11% in 2024 and 13% in 2025.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ced5387b84b81f73709be9612951702\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\"/></p><p>Fast Graphs</p><p>Expected 2024 EPS of $5.53 per share gives shares of PYPL an earnings multiple of just 11.2x, which equates to a PEG ratio of 1.0. These both suggest the stock is undervalued, which is a reason <strong>I rate shares of</strong> <strong>PayPal</strong> <strong>a BUY.</strong></p><p>Analysts are also bullish on the stock, rating the stock a BUY with a 12-month price target of <strong>$74 per share,</strong> implying ~23% upside from current levels.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea6d3583d69c93eee26ea0ac2765361a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"206\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><strong>Stock #2 - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Alphabet Inc. </a></strong></p><p>Another stock I get a lot of questions about and one I believe is undervalued is Alphabet Inc. The company is part of the &#34;Magnificent 7&#34; but they are one of the rare value plays within that group.</p><p>It is hard to think GOOGL is a &#34;value play&#34; when it has a market cap of $1.7 trillion, and has seen their stock rise over 55% the past 12 months, but I believe there to be much further to go for this company.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f15fe1e4b099f826e57589999fac0cb6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Alphabet had a rough time at the start of the year with concerns around a slowdown in digital advertising, which is obviously a huge piece of the business given that they dominate search with both Google Search and YouTube, two of the largest search engines. Search is not the only piece of the business, as they are diversified, and one of those areas they have another big footprint in is within the Cloud segment. Now we have the company looking to be one of the leaders within Artificial intelligence.</p><p>The company is operating at an efficient manner while also growing at the same time. The company&#39;s most recent quarter showed top line revenue growth of 11% to go along with operating margins of 28%, 300 bps higher than a year ago.</p><p>Moving forward, revenues are not expected to slow, as analysts see double-digit revenue growth each of the next three years.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d8e0fbc50b75d44c914e5cc074a16ad\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"194\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>In terms of EPS, analysts are looking for 16% EPS growth each of the next two years. There are estimates that go further out, but as you know, anything can happen, so I do not like to rely on far out estimates. Using the 2024 EPS estimate of $6.69, shares of GOOGL trade at a forward P/E ratio of 20.9x, which is below their 10-year average of 25x.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ea2da39038a980cef02e333d82ed316\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"/></p><p>Fast Graphs</p><p>I rate shares of <strong>GOOGL a BUY.</strong></p><p>Analysts also see some upside with the stock as they have a 12-month Price Target of $155, implying nearly 10% upside from current levels.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73cd2d354fc92ff13f141372df05dab3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"209\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><strong>Stock #3 - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEE\">NextEra Energy </a></strong></p><p>NextEra Energy is a utility company, with a regulated portion of the business and its resources segment of the business. The regulated utility piece of the business is reported as &#34;America&#39;s largest utility company,&#34; so in terms of size, it is large.</p><p>NextEra is a way to play the growth in renewable resources. The company has a market cap of $122 billion and over the past 12 months, the stock is down nearly 30%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18c09bc4e111e64de2a9afcb6de1a041\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>This should not come as a surprise as the utility sector has been the worst performing sector in 2023, largely due to higher interest rates and utilities being a bit more of an income play.</p><p>NextEra is a dividend stock with a current yield of 3.1%, so as you can see, there is a lot of competition in a high rate environment when just looking at the income. However, there is a lot more opportunity that comes along with equities, one being dividend growth and NEE shareholders have seen the company increase the dividend for nearly 30 consecutive years and have a 5-year dividend growth rate of 11%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcf87bb0375bcc0c51a65080cf9c2889\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"107\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>In addition to dividend growth, the stock also offers some growth potential. The stock is trading at a great valuation, making the risk reward opportunity look quite intriguing. Analysts are looking for NEE to generate EPS of $3.40 next year, which equates to a multiple of 17.5x, well below their five-year historical average of 30x.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98699990b5134e569decf427656e2a87\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\"/></p><p>Fast Graphs</p><p><strong>I rate shares of NEE a BUY</strong> based on a growing income and a cheap valuation.</p><p>Analysts tend to agree, as they rate the stock a BUY with a 12-month price target of roughly $70, implying 17% upside from current levels.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/135a70aa471aa8f8859e322e1044294b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"209\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><h2 id=\"id_1974598403\">Investor Takeaway</h2><p>All three of these stocks appear to present opportunity moving forward. They all have growth trajectories moving forward and investors are getting the opportunity to add shares at a reasonable valuation.</p><p>PayPal could struggle if we see a weakening consumer going into 2024, but long term, the company has a lot of opportunity.</p><p>Alphabet is a powerhouse with plenty of growth packed in between search, cloud, AI, and other segments of the business as well.</p><p>NextEra is a way to play the move to more renewable resources as the US looks to be a leader in this area.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Undervalued Stocks I Am Buying</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Undervalued Stocks I Am Buying\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-12-29 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4660144-3-undervalued-stocks-i-am-buying><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As we close out the year and investors look at Tax Loss Harvesting, today we will discuss 3 options to buy.All 3 stocks offer a combination of growth while also trading at a reasonable valuation.In a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4660144-3-undervalued-stocks-i-am-buying\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU0354030438.USD":"富国美国大盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU1621768115.EUR":"AZ EQUITY GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE \"B\" (EUR) INC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU1978683503.SGD":"Blackrock Sustainable Energy A2 SGD-H","LU1093756168.USD":"FRANKLIN K2 ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","BK4106":"数据处理与外包服务","LU0528227936.USD":"富达环球人口趋势基金A-ACC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IE00BMG7P587.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE INCOM \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1621768206.USD":"AZ EQUITY GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE \"AAZ\" (USD) ACC","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0965509101.SGD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU1621767810.EUR":"AZ EQUITY GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE \"A\" (EUR) INC","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4566":"资本集团","NEE":"新纪元能源","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","LU2089284900.SGD":"Allianz Global Sustainability Cl AM Dis H2-SGD","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0128525689.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\"(USD) ACC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4588":"碎股","PYPL":"PayPal","LU0965509010.AUD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (AUDHDG) INC","BK4081":"电力公用事业","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","GOOG":"谷歌","IE00BMG7P819.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Global Infrastructure Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU1621767737.EUR":"AZ EQUITY GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE \"AAZ\" (EUR) ACC","GOOGL":"谷歌A","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2384288077.EUR":"AZ EQUITY GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE \"A-INS\" (EUR) ACC","LU0289960550.SGD":"AB FCP I - GLOBAL EQUITY BLEND PORTFOLIO 'A' (SGD) ACC","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0354030511.USD":"ALLSPRING  U.S. LARGE CAP GROWTH \"I\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4660144-3-undervalued-stocks-i-am-buying","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2395448087","content_text":"As we close out the year and investors look at Tax Loss Harvesting, today we will discuss 3 options to buy.All 3 stocks offer a combination of growth while also trading at a reasonable valuation.In a time when stocks appear inflated as a whole, today, we look at 3 undervalued positions.Today we are going to take a look at 3 individual stocks, some of which I get asked about a lot. In today's piece, I will cover these three stocks and look into why I believe their valuations are intriguing.3 Undervalued Stocks I am BuyingStock #1 - PayPal Holdings PayPal Holdings is a Fintech company that was a darling during the pandemic as the stock rose to an all-time high of closing price of $308.53. The stock is far from those prices today as the stock has fallen 80% from those levels down to its $62 price today.The company currently trades at a market cap of $67 billion. Over the past 12 months the stock is down 10%, but in the past month, the stock has risen more than 10%.Seeking AlphaPayPal was actually founded by a group of individuals, one of those being Elon Musk. After that, PayPal gained popularity when it was purchased by eBay in 2002 and then eventually spun off. The company now is one of the most trusted online payment platforms available to consumers and businesses alike. In addition, the company owns the likes of Venmo, which they are still working to monetize.PayPal was an early online payment processing adopter, but there has been a slew of new competitors hitting the market, one of the biggest being the likes of Apple Pay from Apple (AAPL).Looking at this chart below, you can see that the company has continued to increase revenues, even in the face of rising competition over the years. Analysts believe that trend will continue moving forward.Seeking AlphaEarnings are expected to follow a similar trend with analysts expecting EPS growth of 11% in 2024 and 13% in 2025.Fast GraphsExpected 2024 EPS of $5.53 per share gives shares of PYPL an earnings multiple of just 11.2x, which equates to a PEG ratio of 1.0. These both suggest the stock is undervalued, which is a reason I rate shares of PayPal a BUY.Analysts are also bullish on the stock, rating the stock a BUY with a 12-month price target of $74 per share, implying ~23% upside from current levels.Seeking AlphaStock #2 - Alphabet Inc. Another stock I get a lot of questions about and one I believe is undervalued is Alphabet Inc. The company is part of the \"Magnificent 7\" but they are one of the rare value plays within that group.It is hard to think GOOGL is a \"value play\" when it has a market cap of $1.7 trillion, and has seen their stock rise over 55% the past 12 months, but I believe there to be much further to go for this company.Seeking AlphaAlphabet had a rough time at the start of the year with concerns around a slowdown in digital advertising, which is obviously a huge piece of the business given that they dominate search with both Google Search and YouTube, two of the largest search engines. Search is not the only piece of the business, as they are diversified, and one of those areas they have another big footprint in is within the Cloud segment. Now we have the company looking to be one of the leaders within Artificial intelligence.The company is operating at an efficient manner while also growing at the same time. The company's most recent quarter showed top line revenue growth of 11% to go along with operating margins of 28%, 300 bps higher than a year ago.Moving forward, revenues are not expected to slow, as analysts see double-digit revenue growth each of the next three years.Seeking AlphaIn terms of EPS, analysts are looking for 16% EPS growth each of the next two years. There are estimates that go further out, but as you know, anything can happen, so I do not like to rely on far out estimates. Using the 2024 EPS estimate of $6.69, shares of GOOGL trade at a forward P/E ratio of 20.9x, which is below their 10-year average of 25x.Fast GraphsI rate shares of GOOGL a BUY.Analysts also see some upside with the stock as they have a 12-month Price Target of $155, implying nearly 10% upside from current levels.Seeking AlphaStock #3 - NextEra Energy NextEra Energy is a utility company, with a regulated portion of the business and its resources segment of the business. The regulated utility piece of the business is reported as \"America's largest utility company,\" so in terms of size, it is large.NextEra is a way to play the growth in renewable resources. The company has a market cap of $122 billion and over the past 12 months, the stock is down nearly 30%.Seeking AlphaThis should not come as a surprise as the utility sector has been the worst performing sector in 2023, largely due to higher interest rates and utilities being a bit more of an income play.NextEra is a dividend stock with a current yield of 3.1%, so as you can see, there is a lot of competition in a high rate environment when just looking at the income. However, there is a lot more opportunity that comes along with equities, one being dividend growth and NEE shareholders have seen the company increase the dividend for nearly 30 consecutive years and have a 5-year dividend growth rate of 11%.Seeking AlphaIn addition to dividend growth, the stock also offers some growth potential. The stock is trading at a great valuation, making the risk reward opportunity look quite intriguing. Analysts are looking for NEE to generate EPS of $3.40 next year, which equates to a multiple of 17.5x, well below their five-year historical average of 30x.Fast GraphsI rate shares of NEE a BUY based on a growing income and a cheap valuation.Analysts tend to agree, as they rate the stock a BUY with a 12-month price target of roughly $70, implying 17% upside from current levels.Seeking AlphaInvestor TakeawayAll three of these stocks appear to present opportunity moving forward. They all have growth trajectories moving forward and investors are getting the opportunity to add shares at a reasonable valuation.PayPal could struggle if we see a weakening consumer going into 2024, but long term, the company has a lot of opportunity.Alphabet is a powerhouse with plenty of growth packed in between search, cloud, AI, and other segments of the business as well.NextEra is a way to play the move to more renewable resources as the US looks to be a leader in this area.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":257129414627400,"gmtCreate":1703809631395,"gmtModify":1703809635922,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"There is no guarantee in everything In life, except change, and taxes.&nbsp;So if this article is correct we should all short NIO.&nbsp;","listText":"There is no guarantee in everything In life, except change, and taxes.&nbsp;So if this article is correct we should all short NIO.&nbsp;","text":"There is no guarantee in everything In life, except change, and taxes. So if this article is correct we should all short NIO.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/257129414627400","repostId":"2395974290","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":128,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":256112536146216,"gmtCreate":1703561625867,"gmtModify":1703569791917,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Chase it to death?","listText":"Chase it to death?","text":"Chase it to death?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/256112536146216","repostId":"2393445129","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2393445129","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1703552431,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2393445129?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-12-26 09:00","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Why It's Not Too Late to Chase the Stock Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2393445129","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Stocks keep soaring, but it isn't too late to get into the market. Just look at the cash sitting on the sidelines.It's always hard to chase the market, particularly one as strong as this one is. The S&P 500 index gained 0.75% this past week, pushing its winning streak to eight weeks, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.2%.If it wasn't one thing responsible for the gains, it was another, and even a midweek selloff that saw the S&P 500 drop 1.5% on Wednesday couldn't keep the index down. By Friday, investors got the news they were waiting for: The personal-consumption index gained 2.6% year over year in November, below estimates and lower than the prior reading of 2.9%, reinforcing the notion that the Federal Reserve will probably cut interest rates next year.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Stocks keep soaring, but it isn&#39;t too late to get into the market. Just look at the cash sitting on the sidelines.</p><p>It&#39;s always hard to chase the market, particularly one as strong as this one is. The S&amp;P 500 index gained 0.75% this past week, pushing its winning streak to eight weeks, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.2%.</p><p>If it wasn&#39;t one thing responsible for the gains, it was another, and even a midweek selloff that saw the S&amp;P 500 drop 1.5% on Wednesday couldn&#39;t keep the index down. By Friday, investors got the news they were waiting for: The personal-consumption index gained 2.6% year over year in November, below estimates and lower than the prior reading of 2.9%, reinforcing the notion that the Federal Reserve will probably cut interest rates next year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc562f4288eff284bf166fd87ac38899\" tg-width=\"643\" tg-height=\"434\"/></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 is now up 23% in 2023, and many investors are probably asking if they have missed the rally. Of course they have. Total assets held in money-market funds, at about $6.1 trillion, is near a record, according to the St. Louis Fed. That&#39;s about 29% higher than its level just before Covid, as people rushed into cash for the attractive rates.</p><p>And even the pros are holding more cash than is typical. The average portfolio manager in a Bank of America survey covering trillions of dollars of assets under management holds about 4.5% in cash, down from a multidecade peak of just over 6% hit last year but still more than the lows of just over 3%. Fund managers still have plenty of cash to put to work.</p><p>Nor is equity exposure all that high. The net percentage of respondents in BofA&#39;s survey who say they are overweight equities is at about 15%, up in the past few months but below the long-term average -- and well below historical peaks of just over 60%.</p><p>History suggests that there is still a lot of buying yet to be done, buying that could support the market in the months ahead. Usually, as the Fed starts cutting rates and the economy is still growing, managers add equity exposure, as seen in 2003 and 2019. And as the Fed cuts rates, short-term Treasury yields and cash savings rates will drop, making them less attractive.</p><p>&#34;There&#39;s a ton of room for cash to come into the market,&#34; says the Bycoff Group&#39;s Doug Bycoff.</p><p>Of course, simply putting cash to work on its own isn&#39;t enough to send stocks higher. Thankfully, there&#39;s no reason to think fundamentals shouldn&#39;t cooperate. Economic growth is moderating, but inflation is slowing and interest rates are falling. Together, that should keep the S&amp;P 500&#39;s aggregate earnings growing at a double-digit pace in 2024 as sales grow modestly, cost inflation subsides, profit margins increase, and companies keep buying back stock and paying dividends.</p><p>That sounds like a market we&#39;d want to have our money in.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why It's Not Too Late to Chase the Stock Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy It's Not Too Late to Chase the Stock Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-12-26 09:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Stocks keep soaring, but it isn&#39;t too late to get into the market. Just look at the cash sitting on the sidelines.</p><p>It&#39;s always hard to chase the market, particularly one as strong as this one is. The S&amp;P 500 index gained 0.75% this past week, pushing its winning streak to eight weeks, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.2%.</p><p>If it wasn&#39;t one thing responsible for the gains, it was another, and even a midweek selloff that saw the S&amp;P 500 drop 1.5% on Wednesday couldn&#39;t keep the index down. By Friday, investors got the news they were waiting for: The personal-consumption index gained 2.6% year over year in November, below estimates and lower than the prior reading of 2.9%, reinforcing the notion that the Federal Reserve will probably cut interest rates next year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc562f4288eff284bf166fd87ac38899\" tg-width=\"643\" tg-height=\"434\"/></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 is now up 23% in 2023, and many investors are probably asking if they have missed the rally. Of course they have. Total assets held in money-market funds, at about $6.1 trillion, is near a record, according to the St. Louis Fed. That&#39;s about 29% higher than its level just before Covid, as people rushed into cash for the attractive rates.</p><p>And even the pros are holding more cash than is typical. The average portfolio manager in a Bank of America survey covering trillions of dollars of assets under management holds about 4.5% in cash, down from a multidecade peak of just over 6% hit last year but still more than the lows of just over 3%. Fund managers still have plenty of cash to put to work.</p><p>Nor is equity exposure all that high. The net percentage of respondents in BofA&#39;s survey who say they are overweight equities is at about 15%, up in the past few months but below the long-term average -- and well below historical peaks of just over 60%.</p><p>History suggests that there is still a lot of buying yet to be done, buying that could support the market in the months ahead. Usually, as the Fed starts cutting rates and the economy is still growing, managers add equity exposure, as seen in 2003 and 2019. And as the Fed cuts rates, short-term Treasury yields and cash savings rates will drop, making them less attractive.</p><p>&#34;There&#39;s a ton of room for cash to come into the market,&#34; says the Bycoff Group&#39;s Doug Bycoff.</p><p>Of course, simply putting cash to work on its own isn&#39;t enough to send stocks higher. Thankfully, there&#39;s no reason to think fundamentals shouldn&#39;t cooperate. Economic growth is moderating, but inflation is slowing and interest rates are falling. Together, that should keep the S&amp;P 500&#39;s aggregate earnings growing at a double-digit pace in 2024 as sales grow modestly, cost inflation subsides, profit margins increase, and companies keep buying back stock and paying dividends.</p><p>That sounds like a market we&#39;d want to have our money in.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4109":"特种化学制品","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","CCF":"Chase Corp","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2393445129","content_text":"Stocks keep soaring, but it isn't too late to get into the market. Just look at the cash sitting on the sidelines.It's always hard to chase the market, particularly one as strong as this one is. The S&P 500 index gained 0.75% this past week, pushing its winning streak to eight weeks, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.2%.If it wasn't one thing responsible for the gains, it was another, and even a midweek selloff that saw the S&P 500 drop 1.5% on Wednesday couldn't keep the index down. By Friday, investors got the news they were waiting for: The personal-consumption index gained 2.6% year over year in November, below estimates and lower than the prior reading of 2.9%, reinforcing the notion that the Federal Reserve will probably cut interest rates next year.The S&P 500 is now up 23% in 2023, and many investors are probably asking if they have missed the rally. Of course they have. Total assets held in money-market funds, at about $6.1 trillion, is near a record, according to the St. Louis Fed. That's about 29% higher than its level just before Covid, as people rushed into cash for the attractive rates.And even the pros are holding more cash than is typical. The average portfolio manager in a Bank of America survey covering trillions of dollars of assets under management holds about 4.5% in cash, down from a multidecade peak of just over 6% hit last year but still more than the lows of just over 3%. Fund managers still have plenty of cash to put to work.Nor is equity exposure all that high. The net percentage of respondents in BofA's survey who say they are overweight equities is at about 15%, up in the past few months but below the long-term average -- and well below historical peaks of just over 60%.History suggests that there is still a lot of buying yet to be done, buying that could support the market in the months ahead. Usually, as the Fed starts cutting rates and the economy is still growing, managers add equity exposure, as seen in 2003 and 2019. And as the Fed cuts rates, short-term Treasury yields and cash savings rates will drop, making them less attractive.\"There's a ton of room for cash to come into the market,\" says the Bycoff Group's Doug Bycoff.Of course, simply putting cash to work on its own isn't enough to send stocks higher. Thankfully, there's no reason to think fundamentals shouldn't cooperate. Economic growth is moderating, but inflation is slowing and interest rates are falling. Together, that should keep the S&P 500's aggregate earnings growing at a double-digit pace in 2024 as sales grow modestly, cost inflation subsides, profit margins increase, and companies keep buying back stock and paying dividends.That sounds like a market we'd want to have our money in.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":251082749403176,"gmtCreate":1702307684353,"gmtModify":1702307688528,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Jumped?","listText":"Jumped?","text":"Jumped?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/251082749403176","repostId":"1111792799","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":71,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9037671899,"gmtCreate":1648102512390,"gmtModify":1676534304558,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"title":"How bad is bad?","htmlText":"The President of the&nbsp;Society of Remisiers in Singapore wrote an open letter to Business Times to urge the regulators to regulate.&nbsp;How much worse can it get for a stock market that is shrinking amidst claims that Singapore is a significant \"global financial centre\"?According to the letter: 84 of 680 listed companies have been suspended or are classified as inactive.&nbsp;That's&nbsp;12% of all listed stocks. Why&nbsp;allow them to remain listed?&nbsp;Anyone awake in SGX?https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/protecting-investor-interests-critical-to-rebuilding-investor-confidence-in","listText":"The President of the&nbsp;Society of Remisiers in Singapore wrote an open letter to Business Times to urge the regulators to regulate.&nbsp;How much worse can it get for a stock market that is shrinking amidst claims that Singapore is a significant \"global financial centre\"?According to the letter: 84 of 680 listed companies have been suspended or are classified as inactive.&nbsp;That's&nbsp;12% of all listed stocks. Why&nbsp;allow them to remain listed?&nbsp;Anyone awake in SGX?https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/protecting-investor-interests-critical-to-rebuilding-investor-confidence-in","text":"The President of the Society of Remisiers in Singapore wrote an open letter to Business Times to urge the regulators to regulate. How much worse can it get for a stock market that is shrinking amidst claims that Singapore is a significant \"global financial centre\"?According to the letter: 84 of 680 listed companies have been suspended or are classified as inactive. That's 12% of all listed stocks. Why allow them to remain listed? Anyone awake in SGX?https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/protecting-investor-interests-critical-to-rebuilding-investor-confidence-in","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037671899","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":839,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3559581955535845","authorId":"3559581955535845","name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3559581955535845","authorIdStr":"3559581955535845"},"content":"Singapore is a world class financial centre. It is economically and financially stable. Singapore is safe and most importantly we have an excellent stable government. $SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LIMITED(S68.SI)$ regulates and control the stock exchange in Singapore. It is innovative and recently allow SPAC listings to help stimulate the stock market. This is the first country in Asia to do so. SGX is also home to many Singapore Reits like $ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(A17U.SI)$ , $MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST(ME8U.SI)$ and $CapitaLandInves(9CI.SI)$ . We also have the 3 Singapore banks which is very much the backbone of the STI Index. So while Singapore maybe a tiny island in Asia, it is dynamic and has lots of room to grow exponentially in future. As a Singaporean, I am proud of our country and grateful to be living here. The SGX will continue to evolve and grow with an excellent management team. @Bodoh How bad is bad? @TigerStars","text":"Singapore is a world class financial centre. It is economically and financially stable. Singapore is safe and most importantly we have an excellent stable government. $SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LIMITED(S68.SI)$ regulates and control the stock exchange in Singapore. It is innovative and recently allow SPAC listings to help stimulate the stock market. This is the first country in Asia to do so. SGX is also home to many Singapore Reits like $ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(A17U.SI)$ , $MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST(ME8U.SI)$ and $CapitaLandInves(9CI.SI)$ . We also have the 3 Singapore banks which is very much the backbone of the STI Index. So while Singapore maybe a tiny island in Asia, it is dynamic and has lots of room to grow exponentially in future. As a Singaporean, I am proud of our country and grateful to be living here. The SGX will continue to evolve and grow with an excellent management team. @Bodoh How bad is bad? @TigerStars","html":"Singapore is a world class financial centre. It is economically and financially stable. Singapore is safe and most importantly we have an excellent stable government. $SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LIMITED(S68.SI)$ regulates and control the stock exchange in Singapore. It is innovative and recently allow SPAC listings to help stimulate the stock market. This is the first country in Asia to do so. SGX is also home to many Singapore Reits like $ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(A17U.SI)$ , $MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST(ME8U.SI)$ and $CapitaLandInves(9CI.SI)$ . We also have the 3 Singapore banks which is very much the backbone of the STI Index. So while Singapore maybe a tiny island in Asia, it is dynamic and has lots of room to grow exponentially in future. As a Singaporean, I am proud of our country and grateful to be living here. The SGX will continue to evolve and grow with an excellent management team. @Bodoh How bad is bad? @TigerStars"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183951927668848,"gmtCreate":1685931311253,"gmtModify":1685931316966,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Growth is not guaranteed. With high interest rates and operating cost inflation, asset values are pressured down... loan to value limits are being hit. The REITs pay out so much profits that they do not retain sufficient to buy buildings unless they issue more shares. Growth thru acquisitions will be very very difficult.&nbsp;","listText":"Growth is not guaranteed. With high interest rates and operating cost inflation, asset values are pressured down... loan to value limits are being hit. The REITs pay out so much profits that they do not retain sufficient to buy buildings unless they issue more shares. Growth thru acquisitions will be very very difficult.&nbsp;","text":"Growth is not guaranteed. With high interest rates and operating cost inflation, asset values are pressured down... loan to value limits are being hit. The REITs pay out so much profits that they do not retain sufficient to buy buildings unless they issue more shares. Growth thru acquisitions will be very very difficult.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":17,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183951927668848","repostId":"2341093861","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2341093861","pubTimestamp":1685930458,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2341093861?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-05 10:00","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"4 Singapore REITs to Watch for in June","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2341093861","media":"The Smart Investor","summary":"These four REITs could possess good catalysts and characteristics and deserve a second look.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The REIT sector continues to be an attractive one for income-seeking investors.</p><p>Despite the twin headwinds of high inflation and surging interest rates, REITs are still reliably paying out at least 90% of their earnings as distributions.</p><p>Hence, investors who are looking for a dependable source of dividends can build a portfolio of REITs and watch as the money flows into their bank accounts.</p><p>Some investors, however, may look for REITs that can grow both their distribution per unit (DPU) and asset base.</p><p>This growth will provide unitholders with a steadily-rising payout over time and should also lead to a higher unit price as the REIT grows in size.</p><p>Here are four Singapore REITs to watch for this month that either reported higher distributable income or undertook corporate actions to increase their DPU.</p><h2>Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U)</h2><p>Mapletree Industrial Trust, or MIT, is an industrial REIT with a portfolio of 85 properties in Singapore and 56 in the US valued at S$8.8 billion as of 31 March 2023.</p><p>MIT has quadrupled its portfolio value from the initial S$2.2 billion in fiscal 2011 (FY2011) through nine acquisitions, five build-to-suit projects, and three asset enhancement initiatives (AEIs).</p><p>The industrial REIT had just reported its FY2023 earnings which saw gross revenue rise 12.3% year on year to S$684.9 million.</p><p>Net property income (NPI) increased by 9.7% year on year to S$518 million but DPU dipped slightly by 1.7% year on year to S$0.1357.</p><p>MIT maintained a decent occupancy rate of 94.9% and had a healthy aggregate leverage of 37.4%.</p><p>Last month, the REIT announced its first acquisition in two years, a 98.47% stake in a data centre in Osaka, Japan, for S$500.1 million.</p><p>Management expects MIT’s FY2023 DPU to rise by 2.1% to S$0.1385, surpassing the prior year’s DPU of S$0.138.</p><p>Additionally, the industrial REIT has also completed the redevelopment of Mapletree Hi-Tech Park at Kallang Way and has secured occupancy of 44% as of FY2023.</p><p>The income from committed leases is expected to benefit the REIT in FY2024.</p><h2>CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (SGX: A17U)</h2><p>CapitaLand Ascendas REIT, or CLAR, is an industrial REIT with 229 properties worth S$16.7 billion as of 31 March 2023.</p><p>The REIT reported a solid set of financial and operating metrics for its 2023’s first quarter (1Q 2023) business update.</p><p>Portfolio occupancy came in at a healthy 94.4% while the REIT also clocked in a positive rental reversion of 11.1%.</p><p>Like MIT, CLAR also announced an acquisition last month of a property called “The Shugart” for S$218.2 million.</p><p>This acquisition should help to lift the REIT’s DPU from the current S$0.15798 to S$0.15908.</p><p>Apart from this recent acquisition, CLAR also completed two acquisitions worth S$296.7 million in Singapore for 1Q 2023.</p><p>Elsewhere, the industrial REIT also has ongoing projects, three of which are slated to complete this year.</p><p>One is an acquisition under development in Australia, another is an AEI in Singapore and the third is a convert-to-suit property in the US.</p><h2>iREIT Global (SGX: UD1U)</h2><p>iREIT Global invests in office, retail and industrial properties in Europe.</p><p>The REIT’s portfolio comprises five freehold office properties each in both Germany and Spain and 27 freehold retail properties in France.</p><p>iREIT Global reported a stable performance for 1Q 2023 with a relatively low occupancy at 87% and a healthy positive rental reversion of 3.4%.</p><p>A 15-year lease with the German federal government body secured for 25.0% of Darmstadt Campus in Apr 2023 would improve iREIT’s overall occupancy rate to 89.0% and weighted average lease expiry (WALE) to five years on a pro forma basis.</p><p>Aggregate leverage stood at 32.3% with a low weighted average cost of debt of 1.9% as of 31 March 2023.</p><p>Just last week, the REIT announced the acquisition of 17 retail malls in France for around €76.8 million.</p><p>These malls are fully let out to retailer B&amp;M France with a high initial NPI yield of 7.9% and a WALE of 6.8 years.</p><p>The REIT manager estimates that DPU will rise from €0.023 to €0.0235 post-acquisition.</p><p>Aggregate leverage is expected to rise to 33.3% and the REIT is also proposing a preferential offering to partially fund this acquisition.</p><h2>Daiwa House Logistics Trust (SGX: DHLU)</h2><p>Daiwa House Logistics Trust, or DHLT, is a logistics REIT with 16 properties located in Japan valued at JPY 87.5 billion as of 31 December 2022.</p><p>The REIT’s portfolio has remained resilient despite the economic headwinds.</p><p>For 1Q 2023, the portfolio occupancy rate stayed high at 98.6% with a relatively long WALE of 6.9 years by gross rental income.</p><p>DHLT reported a steady financial performance for 1Q 2023, with rental income rising 5.3% year on year to JPY 1.36 billion.</p><p>NPI inched up just 0.1% year on year to JPY 1.15 billion but distributable income rose 2.5% year on year to S$9.1 million.</p><p>DHLT is poised to remain resilient as its gearing stood at just 35.9% as of 31 March 2023 with a very low borrowing cost of 0.99%.</p><p>The REIT also has no refinancing requirements till November 2024 and has hedged all of its loans to fixed rates.</p><p></p></body></html>","source":"thesmartinvestor_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Singapore REITs to Watch for in June</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Singapore REITs to Watch for in June\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-05 10:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/4-singapore-reits-to-watch-for-in-june/><strong>The Smart Investor</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The REIT sector continues to be an attractive one for income-seeking investors.Despite the twin headwinds of high inflation and surging interest rates, REITs are still reliably paying out at least 90%...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/4-singapore-reits-to-watch-for-in-june/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"A17U.SI":"凯德腾飞房产信托","UD1U.SI":"IREIT全球","DHLU.SI":"Daiwa Hse Log Tr","ME8U.SI":"丰树工业信托"},"source_url":"https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/4-singapore-reits-to-watch-for-in-june/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2341093861","content_text":"The REIT sector continues to be an attractive one for income-seeking investors.Despite the twin headwinds of high inflation and surging interest rates, REITs are still reliably paying out at least 90% of their earnings as distributions.Hence, investors who are looking for a dependable source of dividends can build a portfolio of REITs and watch as the money flows into their bank accounts.Some investors, however, may look for REITs that can grow both their distribution per unit (DPU) and asset base.This growth will provide unitholders with a steadily-rising payout over time and should also lead to a higher unit price as the REIT grows in size.Here are four Singapore REITs to watch for this month that either reported higher distributable income or undertook corporate actions to increase their DPU.Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U)Mapletree Industrial Trust, or MIT, is an industrial REIT with a portfolio of 85 properties in Singapore and 56 in the US valued at S$8.8 billion as of 31 March 2023.MIT has quadrupled its portfolio value from the initial S$2.2 billion in fiscal 2011 (FY2011) through nine acquisitions, five build-to-suit projects, and three asset enhancement initiatives (AEIs).The industrial REIT had just reported its FY2023 earnings which saw gross revenue rise 12.3% year on year to S$684.9 million.Net property income (NPI) increased by 9.7% year on year to S$518 million but DPU dipped slightly by 1.7% year on year to S$0.1357.MIT maintained a decent occupancy rate of 94.9% and had a healthy aggregate leverage of 37.4%.Last month, the REIT announced its first acquisition in two years, a 98.47% stake in a data centre in Osaka, Japan, for S$500.1 million.Management expects MIT’s FY2023 DPU to rise by 2.1% to S$0.1385, surpassing the prior year’s DPU of S$0.138.Additionally, the industrial REIT has also completed the redevelopment of Mapletree Hi-Tech Park at Kallang Way and has secured occupancy of 44% as of FY2023.The income from committed leases is expected to benefit the REIT in FY2024.CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (SGX: A17U)CapitaLand Ascendas REIT, or CLAR, is an industrial REIT with 229 properties worth S$16.7 billion as of 31 March 2023.The REIT reported a solid set of financial and operating metrics for its 2023’s first quarter (1Q 2023) business update.Portfolio occupancy came in at a healthy 94.4% while the REIT also clocked in a positive rental reversion of 11.1%.Like MIT, CLAR also announced an acquisition last month of a property called “The Shugart” for S$218.2 million.This acquisition should help to lift the REIT’s DPU from the current S$0.15798 to S$0.15908.Apart from this recent acquisition, CLAR also completed two acquisitions worth S$296.7 million in Singapore for 1Q 2023.Elsewhere, the industrial REIT also has ongoing projects, three of which are slated to complete this year.One is an acquisition under development in Australia, another is an AEI in Singapore and the third is a convert-to-suit property in the US.iREIT Global (SGX: UD1U)iREIT Global invests in office, retail and industrial properties in Europe.The REIT’s portfolio comprises five freehold office properties each in both Germany and Spain and 27 freehold retail properties in France.iREIT Global reported a stable performance for 1Q 2023 with a relatively low occupancy at 87% and a healthy positive rental reversion of 3.4%.A 15-year lease with the German federal government body secured for 25.0% of Darmstadt Campus in Apr 2023 would improve iREIT’s overall occupancy rate to 89.0% and weighted average lease expiry (WALE) to five years on a pro forma basis.Aggregate leverage stood at 32.3% with a low weighted average cost of debt of 1.9% as of 31 March 2023.Just last week, the REIT announced the acquisition of 17 retail malls in France for around €76.8 million.These malls are fully let out to retailer B&M France with a high initial NPI yield of 7.9% and a WALE of 6.8 years.The REIT manager estimates that DPU will rise from €0.023 to €0.0235 post-acquisition.Aggregate leverage is expected to rise to 33.3% and the REIT is also proposing a preferential offering to partially fund this acquisition.Daiwa House Logistics Trust (SGX: DHLU)Daiwa House Logistics Trust, or DHLT, is a logistics REIT with 16 properties located in Japan valued at JPY 87.5 billion as of 31 December 2022.The REIT’s portfolio has remained resilient despite the economic headwinds.For 1Q 2023, the portfolio occupancy rate stayed high at 98.6% with a relatively long WALE of 6.9 years by gross rental income.DHLT reported a steady financial performance for 1Q 2023, with rental income rising 5.3% year on year to JPY 1.36 billion.NPI inched up just 0.1% year on year to JPY 1.15 billion but distributable income rose 2.5% year on year to S$9.1 million.DHLT is poised to remain resilient as its gearing stood at just 35.9% as of 31 March 2023 with a very low borrowing cost of 0.99%.The REIT also has no refinancing requirements till November 2024 and has hedged all of its loans to fixed rates.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949752248,"gmtCreate":1678923709685,"gmtModify":1678923713825,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not Lehman moment yet, but it is a Bear Sterns moment","listText":"Not Lehman moment yet, but it is a Bear Sterns moment","text":"Not Lehman moment yet, but it is a Bear Sterns moment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":33,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949752248","repostId":"1178433847","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1178433847","pubTimestamp":1678922002,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1178433847?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-16 07:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Credit Suisse Is In Crisis. What Went Wrong?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178433847","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Switzerland’s role as banker to the world’s rich is built on a reputation for institutional discreti","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Switzerland’s role as banker to the world’s rich is built on a reputation for institutional discretion and dull reliability. That only makes the scandals, public legal battles and mounting losses at Credit Suisse Group AG more striking and hard to comprehend. In mid-March, unease about the bank’s mounting problems snowballed and its shares slumped, forcing management to appeal to Swiss banking authorities for a public vote of confidence.</p><h3>1. What went wrong?</h3><p>Credit Suisse’s failings have included a criminal conviction for allowing drug dealers to launder money in Bulgaria, entanglement in a Mozambique corruption case, a spying scandal involving a former employee and an executive and a massive leak of client data to the media. Its association with disgraced financier Lex Greensill and failed New York-based investment firm Archegos Capital Management compounded the sense of an institution that didn’t have a firm grip on its affairs. Many fed up clients have voted with their feet, leading to unprecedented client outflows in late 2022.</p><h3><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/737c0d8e279f497c6082a3207a7417a8\" tg-width=\"718\" tg-height=\"426\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>2. What triggered the latest share slump?</h3><p>Chief Executive Officer Ulrich Koerner launched a massive outreach to woo back nervous clients and their cash. The effort appeared to be paying off by January, with it reported “net positive” deposits. However, on March 9, the US Securities and Exchange Commission queried the bank’s annual report, forcing it to delay its publication. Panic spread after regional US lender Silicon Valley Bank failed, the victim in part of risky investments and rising global interest rates that eroded the value of its bond holdings. Investors began ditching anything that smelled of banking risk and deposit flight.</p><h3>3. How bad did the situation get?</h3><p>On March 15, Credit Suisse stock slumped anew when the chairman of its largest shareholder, Saudi National Bank, ruled out investing any more in the company. This prompted Credit Suisse to ask the Swiss central bank for a public statement of support. The cost of insuring the bank’s bonds against default for one year surged to levels not seen for major international banks since the financial crisis of 2008. As other banks sought to hedge their counterparty risk for transactions with Credit Suisse, quoted prices for a one-year credit default swap jumped from 836 basis points, indicating a probability of defaulting of 10%, on March 14 to higher than 3,000 basis points. Few actual trades were executed, however, as liquidity in the market dried up. In another sign of stress, Credit Suisse’s additional tier 1 bonds — which are subordinate to all other ranks of debt and may be written down if capital falls below a predetermined level — were trading below 80% of face value, a level typically signaling distress. Even bonds coming due in April traded at prices well below face value.</p><h3>4. Is this another Lehman Brothers moment?</h3><p>The Wall Street giant, whose failure in 2008 triggered the global financial crisis, succumbed when funding dried up and other banks stopped dealing with it. Unlike Lehman and SVB, Credit Suisse has substantial liquid assets to call upon and access to central bank lending facilities and is less sensitive than many rivals to sharp moves in interest rates. It has rebuilt its cushion against more deposit withdrawals since the worst wave of outflows in October. It also has enough money-like liquid assets to pay back half of all its liabilities in deposits and loans from other banks, according to Bloomberg Opinion banking columnist Paul J. Davies. Koerner said the firm’s liquidity coverage ratio showed it can handle over a month of heavy outflows in a period of stress.</p><h3>5. What else is Koerner doing to turn things around?</h3><p>His three-year recovery plan involves 9,000 job cuts, dismantling the investment banking behemoth assembled over five decades and returning Credit Suisse to its origins as banker to the world’s ultra-wealthy. That means spinning off First Boston, an American investment bank it acquired in 1990 with a view to listing it in 2025, and selling parts of its securitized products unit to Apollo Global Management Inc. That process is now at risk of becoming bogged down in a broader financial-sector selloff following the collapse of SVB and two other US banks.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Credit Suisse Is In Crisis. What Went Wrong?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCredit Suisse Is In Crisis. What Went Wrong?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-16 07:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-15/credit-suisse-what-s-going-on-and-why-is-cs-stock-falling><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Switzerland’s role as banker to the world’s rich is built on a reputation for institutional discretion and dull reliability. That only makes the scandals, public legal battles and mounting losses at ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-15/credit-suisse-what-s-going-on-and-why-is-cs-stock-falling\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-15/credit-suisse-what-s-going-on-and-why-is-cs-stock-falling","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178433847","content_text":"Switzerland’s role as banker to the world’s rich is built on a reputation for institutional discretion and dull reliability. That only makes the scandals, public legal battles and mounting losses at Credit Suisse Group AG more striking and hard to comprehend. In mid-March, unease about the bank’s mounting problems snowballed and its shares slumped, forcing management to appeal to Swiss banking authorities for a public vote of confidence.1. What went wrong?Credit Suisse’s failings have included a criminal conviction for allowing drug dealers to launder money in Bulgaria, entanglement in a Mozambique corruption case, a spying scandal involving a former employee and an executive and a massive leak of client data to the media. Its association with disgraced financier Lex Greensill and failed New York-based investment firm Archegos Capital Management compounded the sense of an institution that didn’t have a firm grip on its affairs. Many fed up clients have voted with their feet, leading to unprecedented client outflows in late 2022.2. What triggered the latest share slump?Chief Executive Officer Ulrich Koerner launched a massive outreach to woo back nervous clients and their cash. The effort appeared to be paying off by January, with it reported “net positive” deposits. However, on March 9, the US Securities and Exchange Commission queried the bank’s annual report, forcing it to delay its publication. Panic spread after regional US lender Silicon Valley Bank failed, the victim in part of risky investments and rising global interest rates that eroded the value of its bond holdings. Investors began ditching anything that smelled of banking risk and deposit flight.3. How bad did the situation get?On March 15, Credit Suisse stock slumped anew when the chairman of its largest shareholder, Saudi National Bank, ruled out investing any more in the company. This prompted Credit Suisse to ask the Swiss central bank for a public statement of support. The cost of insuring the bank’s bonds against default for one year surged to levels not seen for major international banks since the financial crisis of 2008. As other banks sought to hedge their counterparty risk for transactions with Credit Suisse, quoted prices for a one-year credit default swap jumped from 836 basis points, indicating a probability of defaulting of 10%, on March 14 to higher than 3,000 basis points. Few actual trades were executed, however, as liquidity in the market dried up. In another sign of stress, Credit Suisse’s additional tier 1 bonds — which are subordinate to all other ranks of debt and may be written down if capital falls below a predetermined level — were trading below 80% of face value, a level typically signaling distress. Even bonds coming due in April traded at prices well below face value.4. Is this another Lehman Brothers moment?The Wall Street giant, whose failure in 2008 triggered the global financial crisis, succumbed when funding dried up and other banks stopped dealing with it. Unlike Lehman and SVB, Credit Suisse has substantial liquid assets to call upon and access to central bank lending facilities and is less sensitive than many rivals to sharp moves in interest rates. It has rebuilt its cushion against more deposit withdrawals since the worst wave of outflows in October. It also has enough money-like liquid assets to pay back half of all its liabilities in deposits and loans from other banks, according to Bloomberg Opinion banking columnist Paul J. Davies. Koerner said the firm’s liquidity coverage ratio showed it can handle over a month of heavy outflows in a period of stress.5. What else is Koerner doing to turn things around?His three-year recovery plan involves 9,000 job cuts, dismantling the investment banking behemoth assembled over five decades and returning Credit Suisse to its origins as banker to the world’s ultra-wealthy. That means spinning off First Boston, an American investment bank it acquired in 1990 with a view to listing it in 2025, and selling parts of its securitized products unit to Apollo Global Management Inc. That process is now at risk of becoming bogged down in a broader financial-sector selloff following the collapse of SVB and two other US banks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":48,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943199482,"gmtCreate":1679234870246,"gmtModify":1679234873749,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"A pause? That means interest rates n inflation will drop?","listText":"A pause? That means interest rates n inflation will drop?","text":"A pause? That means interest rates n inflation will drop?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":27,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943199482","repostId":"2320959642","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2320959642","pubTimestamp":1679190744,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2320959642?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-19 09:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed to Consider a Pause as Fallout From SVB Roils Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2320959642","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"UK, Switzerland, Norway, Nigeria, Philippines may hikeBrazil and Turkey will probably hold rates thi","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>UK, Switzerland, Norway, Nigeria, Philippines may hike</li><li>Brazil and Turkey will probably hold rates this week</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ce3ee6825cfe7c9048ec5d9569ab627\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve.Source: Bloomberg</span></p><p>Federal Reserve officials face their biggest challenge in months as they weigh whether to keep raising interest rates this week to cool inflation, or take a pause amid the market turmoil fueled by recent bank failures.</p><p>Before the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the resulting fallout, Fed policy makers were poised to raise rates by as much as 50 basis points after a string of data suggested the economy was much stronger than officials thought at the beginning of the year.</p><p>Now, given the financial market volatility, many Fed watchers expect a smaller, quarter-point increase, and some say the US central bank will pause altogether after a two-day meeting that starts on Tuesday.</p><p>The decision follows a 50-basis-point rate hike from the European Central Bank on Thursday. President Christine Lagarde said the ECB remains committed to fighting inflation, while monitoring bank tensions closely.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada28712e5122d8a9078a50d9eb73410\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Also highly anticipated from the Fed meeting with be an update to the Summary of Economic Projections — a quarterly report laying out participants’ forecasts for everything from inflation to interest rates — and Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference.</p><p>Amid the banking sector turmoil, Powell will likely face questions around the central bank’s supervision of SVB and other struggling entities.</p><p>He’ll also need to tread carefully when talking about the likely future path of interest rates. Before the banking issues emerged, Fed officials had indicated that rates would need to move above 5% this year and remain there until inflation was on pace to fall back to their 2% target.</p><p>Yet heightened uncertainty over to what extent bank capitalization issues — exacerbated by the Fed’s rapid interest rate increases and the impact on Treasury yields — will impact the broader economy may limit Powell’s ability to tighten much more going forward.</p><blockquote><b>What Bloomberg Economics Says...</b></blockquote><blockquote>“The FOMC faces its most challenging policy decision in recent memory on March 22. Market expectations have shifted sharply — from a 50-basis-point hike to a pause — as fears of bank contagion displace inflation concerns. We expect the Fed to hike 25 basis points, taking the upper bound from 4.75% to 5%. Reaccelerating inflation maintains pressure to keep hiking.”</blockquote><blockquote>— Anna Wong, chief US economist. For full analysis</blockquote><p>Elsewhere, 12 other central banks set policy in the coming week. Economists predict rate hikes in the UK, Switzerland, Norway, Nigeria and the Philippines, while Brazil and Turkey will probably hold. Meanwhile, traders betting on the Bank of Canada’s rate path will get a fresh inflation reading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79cc947dfbf75d14dfbb8d227ff61642\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><h2>Asia</h2><p>On Monday, the People’s Bank of China will likely report that banks left their loan prime rates unchanged as the economy gradually recovers.</p><p>In Tokyo, a summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan’s meeting earlier this month will shed more light on the rationale for keeping monetary policy steady ahead of Kazuo Ueda’s arrival at the helm in April.</p><p>Reserve Bank of Australia official Chris Kent on Monday may offer an up-to-date take on the policy stance and any concerns over financial market contagion. Those remarks will likely prove more timely than minutes due Tuesday from the RBA’s March meeting.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fae5e782108c30c09e42d5192614e25\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Early trade numbers from South Korea will offer a pulse check on global conditions.</p><p>Japan’s inflation figures on Friday are set to mirror earlier data that pointed to a cooling of prices, helped largely by newly subsidized electricity bills.</p><p>Hong Kong and Taiwan central banks will announce their interest rates on Thursday.</p><h2>Europe, Middle East, Africa</h2><p>The Fed may be the dominant central-bank decision this week, but several others will also draw investors’ attention.</p><p>The Bank of England takes center stage in Europe. Officials await the latest UK inflation reading on Wednesday, possibly showing price growth is still close to double digits. Most economists predict rates will be raised by a quarter-point the next day, though with financial tensions still simmering, a minority sees no change.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b127e6c21b263dfe8d35439c08f586ff\" tg-width=\"963\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Here’s a quick rundown of the other decisions due:</p><ul><li>The Swiss National Bank meeting on Thursday is a quarterly one and there’s catch-up to do, so a hike of as much as 50 basis points is widely anticipated. Overshadowing the outcome is Credit Suisse Group AG, the stricken bank offered a lifeline to help contain global turmoil.</li><li>The same day in Norway, where officials are forecast to raise rates by another quarter point to extend the monetary tightening cycle in the oil-rich economy.</li><li>An Icelandic decision is due on Wednesday, with another big rate hike possible.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31fb0b6e2340d3e360b087ec08e80c67\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Looking south, central banks will be very active too. Here’s a quick summary:</p><ul><li>Nigeria may raise rates on Tuesday to contain inflation that’s near an 18-year high, and to encourage investment.</li><li>In Angola the same day, officials may cut benchmark borrowing costs for a second time this year as the kwanza remains stable, commodity prices are seen moderating, and a downward swing in price growth looks likely to continue.</li><li>In Morocco that day, the central bank will most likely pause monetary tightening as food prices start to ease.</li><li>And in Turkey on Thursday, officials are expected to hold rates steady. Any signs of future policy will be key as the country heads toward elections in May, where President Recep Tayyip Erdogan faces the strongest challenge yet to his two decades in power.</li></ul><p>After the ECB’s meeting on Thursday, which ended with a half-pint hike but no future guidance, more than a dozen of its policy makers will speak in the coming days. President Lagarde is likely to draw the most attention with testimony to the European Parliament on Monday.</p><p>Further clues on the backdrop for the banking system may be available when her ECB colleague Andrea Enria, the euro region’s top regulator, talks to the same panel of lawmakers the following day.</p><p>Lagarde is also among officials who’ll take the stage at the ECB and Its Watchers conference in Frankfurt on Wednesday, and several others are scheduled to make appearances elsewhere during the week.</p><p>Meanwhile, purchasing managers’ indexes in the euro zone and UK will give an indication of the strength of industry as China reopens, and the German Council of Economic Experts will publish an updated growth outlook.</p><h2>Latin America</h2><p>A busy week in Brazil begins with the central bank’s survey of market expectations on inflation, which continue to edge further above target through 2025.</p><p>Banco Central do Brasil is all but certain to hold its key rate at 13.75% for a fifth straight meeting, though policy makers may strike a dovish tone in the post-decision statement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb439ff09b87c93bdf371ccf16b18b47\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"950\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After minimal disinflation over the past three mid-month consumer price readings, analysts see steeper deceleration for the mid-February print and into the second quarter due to base-effects, before a second-half uptick.</p><p>Chile’s fourth-quarter output report may show that the Andean country narrowly avoided falling into a technical recession, due in part to untapped household liquidity and the impact of China’s reopening.</p><p>In Argentina, four straight negative readings on its monthly economic activity indicator point to a quarterly contraction in output heading into a challenging 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f39a7f6e29e3952614e9b3a783a419d\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In Mexico, the weakness seen in retail sales since May likely extended into January, while slumping demand from the US, the country’s biggest export market, can be expected to weigh on January GDP-proxy data.</p><p>The early consensus has mid-month inflation coming in near a one-year low — though still more than twice the 3% target — while the somewhat more sticky core reading extends a drop from November’s two-decade high of 8.66%, in line with Banxico forecasts.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed to Consider a Pause as Fallout From SVB Roils Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed to Consider a Pause as Fallout From SVB Roils Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-19 09:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-18/federal-reserve-interest-rates-latest-fed-pause-likely-on-svb-fallout?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>UK, Switzerland, Norway, Nigeria, Philippines may hikeBrazil and Turkey will probably hold rates this weekJerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve.Source: BloombergFederal Reserve officials ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-18/federal-reserve-interest-rates-latest-fed-pause-likely-on-svb-fallout?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-18/federal-reserve-interest-rates-latest-fed-pause-likely-on-svb-fallout?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2320959642","content_text":"UK, Switzerland, Norway, Nigeria, Philippines may hikeBrazil and Turkey will probably hold rates this weekJerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve.Source: BloombergFederal Reserve officials face their biggest challenge in months as they weigh whether to keep raising interest rates this week to cool inflation, or take a pause amid the market turmoil fueled by recent bank failures.Before the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the resulting fallout, Fed policy makers were poised to raise rates by as much as 50 basis points after a string of data suggested the economy was much stronger than officials thought at the beginning of the year.Now, given the financial market volatility, many Fed watchers expect a smaller, quarter-point increase, and some say the US central bank will pause altogether after a two-day meeting that starts on Tuesday.The decision follows a 50-basis-point rate hike from the European Central Bank on Thursday. President Christine Lagarde said the ECB remains committed to fighting inflation, while monitoring bank tensions closely.Also highly anticipated from the Fed meeting with be an update to the Summary of Economic Projections — a quarterly report laying out participants’ forecasts for everything from inflation to interest rates — and Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference.Amid the banking sector turmoil, Powell will likely face questions around the central bank’s supervision of SVB and other struggling entities.He’ll also need to tread carefully when talking about the likely future path of interest rates. Before the banking issues emerged, Fed officials had indicated that rates would need to move above 5% this year and remain there until inflation was on pace to fall back to their 2% target.Yet heightened uncertainty over to what extent bank capitalization issues — exacerbated by the Fed’s rapid interest rate increases and the impact on Treasury yields — will impact the broader economy may limit Powell’s ability to tighten much more going forward.What Bloomberg Economics Says...“The FOMC faces its most challenging policy decision in recent memory on March 22. Market expectations have shifted sharply — from a 50-basis-point hike to a pause — as fears of bank contagion displace inflation concerns. We expect the Fed to hike 25 basis points, taking the upper bound from 4.75% to 5%. Reaccelerating inflation maintains pressure to keep hiking.”— Anna Wong, chief US economist. For full analysisElsewhere, 12 other central banks set policy in the coming week. Economists predict rate hikes in the UK, Switzerland, Norway, Nigeria and the Philippines, while Brazil and Turkey will probably hold. Meanwhile, traders betting on the Bank of Canada’s rate path will get a fresh inflation reading.AsiaOn Monday, the People’s Bank of China will likely report that banks left their loan prime rates unchanged as the economy gradually recovers.In Tokyo, a summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan’s meeting earlier this month will shed more light on the rationale for keeping monetary policy steady ahead of Kazuo Ueda’s arrival at the helm in April.Reserve Bank of Australia official Chris Kent on Monday may offer an up-to-date take on the policy stance and any concerns over financial market contagion. Those remarks will likely prove more timely than minutes due Tuesday from the RBA’s March meeting.Early trade numbers from South Korea will offer a pulse check on global conditions.Japan’s inflation figures on Friday are set to mirror earlier data that pointed to a cooling of prices, helped largely by newly subsidized electricity bills.Hong Kong and Taiwan central banks will announce their interest rates on Thursday.Europe, Middle East, AfricaThe Fed may be the dominant central-bank decision this week, but several others will also draw investors’ attention.The Bank of England takes center stage in Europe. Officials await the latest UK inflation reading on Wednesday, possibly showing price growth is still close to double digits. Most economists predict rates will be raised by a quarter-point the next day, though with financial tensions still simmering, a minority sees no change.Here’s a quick rundown of the other decisions due:The Swiss National Bank meeting on Thursday is a quarterly one and there’s catch-up to do, so a hike of as much as 50 basis points is widely anticipated. Overshadowing the outcome is Credit Suisse Group AG, the stricken bank offered a lifeline to help contain global turmoil.The same day in Norway, where officials are forecast to raise rates by another quarter point to extend the monetary tightening cycle in the oil-rich economy.An Icelandic decision is due on Wednesday, with another big rate hike possible.Looking south, central banks will be very active too. Here’s a quick summary:Nigeria may raise rates on Tuesday to contain inflation that’s near an 18-year high, and to encourage investment.In Angola the same day, officials may cut benchmark borrowing costs for a second time this year as the kwanza remains stable, commodity prices are seen moderating, and a downward swing in price growth looks likely to continue.In Morocco that day, the central bank will most likely pause monetary tightening as food prices start to ease.And in Turkey on Thursday, officials are expected to hold rates steady. Any signs of future policy will be key as the country heads toward elections in May, where President Recep Tayyip Erdogan faces the strongest challenge yet to his two decades in power.After the ECB’s meeting on Thursday, which ended with a half-pint hike but no future guidance, more than a dozen of its policy makers will speak in the coming days. President Lagarde is likely to draw the most attention with testimony to the European Parliament on Monday.Further clues on the backdrop for the banking system may be available when her ECB colleague Andrea Enria, the euro region’s top regulator, talks to the same panel of lawmakers the following day.Lagarde is also among officials who’ll take the stage at the ECB and Its Watchers conference in Frankfurt on Wednesday, and several others are scheduled to make appearances elsewhere during the week.Meanwhile, purchasing managers’ indexes in the euro zone and UK will give an indication of the strength of industry as China reopens, and the German Council of Economic Experts will publish an updated growth outlook.Latin AmericaA busy week in Brazil begins with the central bank’s survey of market expectations on inflation, which continue to edge further above target through 2025.Banco Central do Brasil is all but certain to hold its key rate at 13.75% for a fifth straight meeting, though policy makers may strike a dovish tone in the post-decision statement.After minimal disinflation over the past three mid-month consumer price readings, analysts see steeper deceleration for the mid-February print and into the second quarter due to base-effects, before a second-half uptick.Chile’s fourth-quarter output report may show that the Andean country narrowly avoided falling into a technical recession, due in part to untapped household liquidity and the impact of China’s reopening.In Argentina, four straight negative readings on its monthly economic activity indicator point to a quarterly contraction in output heading into a challenging 2023.In Mexico, the weakness seen in retail sales since May likely extended into January, while slumping demand from the US, the country’s biggest export market, can be expected to weigh on January GDP-proxy data.The early consensus has mid-month inflation coming in near a one-year low — though still more than twice the 3% target — while the somewhat more sticky core reading extends a drop from November’s two-decade high of 8.66%, in line with Banxico forecasts.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":259908098609288,"gmtCreate":1704464475258,"gmtModify":1704464479534,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"\"Gives you green light\"... you mean the recommendation is so powerful?","listText":"\"Gives you green light\"... you mean the recommendation is so powerful?","text":"\"Gives you green light\"... you mean the recommendation is so powerful?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/259908098609288","repostId":"2400920362","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":223898527576128,"gmtCreate":1695700394623,"gmtModify":1695700399758,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"the yields are \"high\" only because the stock price dropped, and there is an assumption that DPUs will remain... but will DPUs continue dropping? In fact, will these REITs be able to continue paying dividends?","listText":"the yields are \"high\" only because the stock price dropped, and there is an assumption that DPUs will remain... but will DPUs continue dropping? In fact, will these REITs be able to continue paying dividends?","text":"the yields are \"high\" only because the stock price dropped, and there is an assumption that DPUs will remain... but will DPUs continue dropping? In fact, will these REITs be able to continue paying dividends?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/223898527576128","repostId":"2370761216","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":65,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3550529948801840","authorId":"3550529948801840","name":"JKZP","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d8e2b18a0889327e7c8463f9d83a512","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3550529948801840","authorIdStr":"3550529948801840"},"content":"yes you are right. what REITs will you recommend. thanks in advance","text":"yes you are right. what REITs will you recommend. thanks in advance","html":"yes you are right. what REITs will you recommend. thanks in advance"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955248059,"gmtCreate":1675477730371,"gmtModify":1676539005284,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Jobs report ignored by&nbsp;market? All these reports are so unbelievable&nbsp;","listText":"Jobs report ignored by&nbsp;market? All these reports are so unbelievable&nbsp;","text":"Jobs report ignored by market? All these reports are so unbelievable","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":22,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955248059","repostId":"1153090200","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153090200","pubTimestamp":1675471225,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153090200?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-04 08:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. Weekly Review: Market Rally Powers Higher On Tame Fed, Meta Earnings; Apple, Google, Amazon In Focus","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153090200","media":"Investor's Business Daily","summary":"The stock market rally marched higher as the Fed took a slightly more dovish stance, even though it ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The stock market rally marched higher as the Fed took a slightly more dovish stance, even though it said rate hikes will continue. Friday&#39;s superhot jobs report failed to derail the uptrend. Big earnings or guidance continued to be mixed, but <b>Meta Platforms</b> (META) skyrocketed on cost cuts, revenue guidance and a big buyback. <b>AMD</b> (AMD) also was a big winner, while <b>Apple</b> (AAPL) rallied despite missing views. Google parent <b>Alphabet</b> (GOOGL) and <b>Amazon.com</b> (AMZN) had solidly weekly gains. <b>General Motors</b> (GM) soared on strong earnings, though <b>Ford</b> (F) tumbled on its results. Oil stocks skidded as energy prices retreated.</p><h2>Market Rally Decisively Clears Key Resistance</h2><p>The market rally continued rising, as investors hailed Fed chief Jerome Powell&#39;s comments and often-mixed earnings, taking a strong jobs report in stride. The Nasdaq and small-cap Russell 2000 moved decisively above their late 2022 highs. The S&amp;P 500 also cleared its recent peaks, while the Dow Jones faced some struggles. Crude oil futures retreated significantly, while natural gas continued to tumble. Treasury yields tumbled to their lowest levels in several months.</p><h2>Fed Tame As Jobs Roar</h2><p>The Federal Reserve hiked its key rate a quarter-point and signaled at least two more hikes still to come. With Wall Street betting that the Fed will pause after just one more hike in March, that guidance could have been a downer. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell seemed to fire up animal spirits by hailing disinflationary trends, while sounding upbeat about a soft landing for the U.S. economy and expressing no qualms about easing financial conditions. However, the January jobs report out on Friday showed hiring surged in January with unemployment falling to the lowest level since 1969. However, wage gains slowed to 4.4%, lowest since August 2021. Still, hiring strength and a new rock-bottom for unemployment have shifted odds slightly in favor of two more rate hikes. Meanwhile, the ISM U.S. manufacturing index was weak, but the ISM&#39;s service-sector gauge showed a big jump.</p><h2>Meta Platforms Surges On 2023 Outlook</h2><p><b>Meta Platforms</b> (META) reported a 52% EPS decline, in line with views, while revenue fell 4%, slightly topping. Shares surged as the Facebook parent vowed to make 2023 a &#34;year of efficiency&#34; following massive spending on the metaverse in 2022. Meta guided up on Q1 revenue and slashed capital spending and other planned expenses for the year. It also announced a $40 billion buyback.</p><h2>Apple Misses Holiday-Quarter Targets</h2><p>Consumer electronics giant <b>Apple</b> (AAPL) missed its December-quarter sales and earnings targets amid supply constraints and foreign exchange headwinds. Fiscal Q1 EPS fell 10% as sales sank 5% to $117.2 billion. Apple&#39;s iPhone revenue sank 8% to $65.8 billion after it couldn&#39;t make enough iPhone 14 Pro models to meet demand. Apple&#39;s Mac computer sales tumbled 29% to $7.7 billion. And revenue from Apple&#39;s wearables, home and accessories unit declined 8% to $13.5 billion. However, iPad sales rose 30% to $9.4 billion in the holiday quarter. And services revenue increased 6% to $20.8 billion.</p><h2>Amazon EPS Dives, Outlook Weak</h2><p>Q4 EPS crashed 98%, well below views. Revenue rose nearly 9% to $149.2 billion, topping views, but slowing from Q3&#39;s 15%. Amazon Web Services revenue popped 20%, slowing from Q3&#39;s 27.5% and slightly below views. <b>Amazon</b> (AMZN) guided Q1 revenue forecasts lower, with high-margin AWS expected to show further deceleration in growth. Shares fell Friday but rose solidly for the week.</p><h2>Google Misses As Ad Revenue Falls</h2><p>Google-parent <b>Alphabet</b> (GOOGL) reported Q4 earnings and revenue that missed Wall Street targets amid slowing growth in internet search advertising, YouTube ads and cloud-computing services. Q4 earnings tumbled 31%. Gross revenue rose 1% to $76.05 billion. Advertising revenue fell 3% to $59.04 billion, missing estimates. In addition, ad revenue at Google&#39;s YouTube fell more than 7% to $7.96 billion. Google said cloud-computing revenue rose 32% to $7.32 billion, missing estimates of $7.44 billion. In Q3, cloud revenue rose 38%.</p><h2>Chipmakers Offer Weak Outlook</h2><p>Semiconductor manufacturers mostly guided Wall Street lower for the current period as they delivered earnings reports in the past week. Chipmakers offering a weak outlook included those exposed to personal computers and smartphones, such as <b>Advanced Micro Devices</b> (AMD), <b>Qorvo</b> (QRVO) and <b>Qualcomm</b> (QCOM). Bucking the trend with beat-and-raise earnings reports were <b>Allegro MicroSystems</b> (ALGM), <b>Microchip Technology</b> (MCHP) and <b>Silicon Labs</b> (SLAB). They have greater exposure to automotive, industrial and Internet-of-Things markets.</p><h2>Oil Majors&#39; Results Mixed</h2><p><b>Exxon Mobil</b> (XOM) reported a 66% EPS gain, though the 12% revenue rise missed. Amid surging cash, Exxon plans on returning up to $35 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks in 2023. <b>Shell</b> (SHEL) EPS swelled 67% due to strong LNG and gas trading and refining margins, while revenue increased 19% to $101.3 billion. <b>ConocoPhillips</b> (COP) missed earnings and revenue views, though EPS was up 19% and sales 21%. It plans to return $11 billion to shareholders in 2023. Oil stocks generally fell amid skidding oil and gas prices.</p><h2>GM Crushes Views, Ford Leaves $2 Billion &#39;On The Table&#39;</h2><p><b>General Motors</b> (GM) crushed earnings and revenue estimates for the fourth quarter, while guiding for another solid year in 2023. Year over year, EPS grew 57%, accelerating from a 48% gain the prior quarter. Revenue rose 28%, but margins fell. Demand and pricing for GM vehicles &#34;remain strong,&#34; CFO Paul Jacobson said, amid recession fears. The auto giant also announced a hefty investment in <b>Lithium Americas</b> (LAC), as it ramps up on electric vehicles and lithium-based EV batteries. <b>Ford</b> (F) went the opposite way, missing Q4 earnings estimates and losing $2 billion for the full year due to poor execution, while giving a downbeat outlook for 2023. GM jumped, flashing a buy signal. Ford tumbled on results, slashing weekly gains.</p><p>Meanwhile, new U.S. vehicle sales were stronger than expected in January as supply disruptions continue to ease.</p><p>More crossover SUVs will be eligible for tax credits at prices up to $80,000, the U.S. government announced Friday in a reversal. That should benefit <b>Tesla</b> (TSLA) and Ford in particular.</p><h2>Homebuilders Rally On Earnings</h2><p><b>Pulte Group</b> (PHM), <b>NVR</b> (NVR) and <b>Meritage</b> (MTH) topped EPS and revenue views, with solid growth, though orders point to weaker results ahead. <b>M.D.C. Holdings</b> (MDC) missed on revenue. But all four homebuilders rallied solidly for the week, along with other builders and many other housing-related stocks. One outlier: <b>Beazer Homes</b> (BZH) reported mixed results and tumbled Friday.</p><h2>Drug Earnings Mixed</h2><p>Pfizer beat adjusted earnings expectations at $1.14 per share, up 45%, but sales rose just 2% and the drug giant projected massive declines for its Covid products this year. <b>Merck</b> (MRK), <b>Eli Lilly</b> (LLY) and <b>Bristol Myers Squibb</b> (BMY) all beat quarterly expectations. But Lilly shares fell on lighter-than-expected sales for its newest diabetes treatment, Mounjaro. Bristol Myers&#39; sales of generics-facing Revlimid plummeted 32% with declines expected to continue. Merck&#39;s 2023 outlook lagged. <b>GSK</b> (GSK) and <b>Novo Nordisk</b> (NVO), on the other hand, topped sales and per-share earnings forecasts, but <b>Novartis</b> (NVS) reported light profit. <b>Sanofi</b> (SNY) met EPS views but sales were light.</p><h2>Biotech Earnings</h2><p><b>Amgen</b> (AMGN) fell 7%, just missing, while flat sales missed. Shares fell on its 2023 outlook, which didn&#39;t include Amgen&#39;s looming <b>Horizon Therapeutics</b> (HZNP) takeover. <b>Gilead Sciences</b> (GILD) popped after its earnings report, with EPS surging 142% and overall sales 2%, both easily beating. <b>Regeneron</b> (REGN) also beat forecasts, though sales tumbled 31% due to a downfall in Covid antibody sales, with adjusted EPS off 46%. Amgen fell sharply, while Gilead and Regeneron rose, with REGN flirting with a breakout.</p><h2>Caterpillar Profit Disappoints</h2><p><b>Caterpillar</b> (CAT) earnings for Q4 rose 43% to $3.86, but missed estimates. Revenue climbed 20% to $16.6 billion, ahead of views. CAT stock, a global bellwether, has surged on a better global economic outlook led by China and Europe. Yet Caterpillar says it&#39;s not yet seeing higher demand in China. CAT stock tumbled to its 50-day line, but bounced somewhat Friday.</p><h2>Trucking Earnings On Different Roads</h2><p><b>Old Dominion Freight Line</b> (ODFL) earnings rose 21%, well above views. But <b>ArcBest</b> (ARCB) and <b>Saia</b> (SAIA) missed, with modest year-over-year EPS declines. ArcBest and Saia both noted that shipping tonnage fell and volume slowed during a &#34;softer freight environment.&#34; Still, revenue per shipment grew due to pricing increases. ODFL spiked. ArcBest and Saia initially tumbled on Friday, but rebounded to continue strong weekly gains.</p><h2>Footwear Makers Step Up</h2><p><b>Deckers Outdoor</b> (DECK) reported a 24% EPS gain with revenue up 13%, both beating. Hoka running shoe sales spiked 91% to $352 million. But Deckers&#39; guidance implied a slight Q4 miss. <b>Skechers</b> (SKX) posted an 18% per share profit decline with sales up 14%. The shoe maker guided low on revenue.</p><h2>Health Insurers Slide On Outlook Concerns</h2><p><b>Cigna</b> (CI) edged past Q4 estimates with 4% growth, but the big commercial health insurer offered below-expected guidance for 2023, despite predicting a boost of 1.2 million members. CI stock sold off toward a three-month low. Leading Medicare Advantage player <b>Humana</b> (HUM) cruised past EPS estimates with 31% growth, while saying it&#39;ll earn at least as much as the consensus view in 2023. HUM stock rallied on the report, but it didn&#39;t last. That&#39;s because the government agency that oversees Medicare Advantage proposed the smallest increase since 2016 for next year.</p><h2>News In Brief</h2><p><b>GE HealthCare Technologies</b> (GEHC) reported a 4% EPS drop with revenue up nearly 8% in its report since its spinoff from <b>General Electric</b> (GE). GEHC guided for modest growth in 2023.</p><p><b>UPS</b> (UPS) reported a 1% EPS gain, slightly beating, while revenue fell 3% to $27 billion, missing. The shipping giant announced a $5 billion buyback and hiked its dividend nearly 7%.</p><p><b>McDonald&#39;s</b> (MCD) reported 16% EPS growth while revenue dipped 1%, both beating. But shares fell as the fast-food giant warned that inflation concerns will affect margins.</p><p><b>ChampionX</b> (CHX) topped EPS views, but the drilling tech firm missed on revenue and guided low. CHX stock tumbled. <b>Helmerich &amp; Payne</b> (HP) beat first-quarter 2023 earnings estimates Monday, with revenue up 76% to $720 million.</p><p><b>World Wrestling Entertainment</b> (WWE) reported a 22% EPS drop while revenue rose 5%, both slightly missing views.</p><p><b>Dynatrace</b> (DT) reported fiscal Q3 EPS rose 38% while revenue climbed 24% to $297.5 million, both beating. Annual recurring revenue, or ARR, rose 25% to $1.163 billion, just topping estimates. The app monitoring software maker guided higher for current quarter revenue.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1610612141385","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Weekly Review: Market Rally Powers Higher On Tame Fed, Meta Earnings; Apple, Google, Amazon In Focus</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Weekly Review: Market Rally Powers Higher On Tame Fed, Meta Earnings; Apple, Google, Amazon In Focus\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-04 08:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.investors.com/news/market-rally-powers-higher-on-tame-fed-meta-earnings-apple-google-amazon/><strong>Investor's Business Daily</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The stock market rally marched higher as the Fed took a slightly more dovish stance, even though it said rate hikes will continue. Friday's superhot jobs report failed to derail the uptrend. Big ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/news/market-rally-powers-higher-on-tame-fed-meta-earnings-apple-google-amazon/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.investors.com/news/market-rally-powers-higher-on-tame-fed-meta-earnings-apple-google-amazon/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153090200","content_text":"The stock market rally marched higher as the Fed took a slightly more dovish stance, even though it said rate hikes will continue. Friday's superhot jobs report failed to derail the uptrend. Big earnings or guidance continued to be mixed, but Meta Platforms (META) skyrocketed on cost cuts, revenue guidance and a big buyback. AMD (AMD) also was a big winner, while Apple (AAPL) rallied despite missing views. Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon.com (AMZN) had solidly weekly gains. General Motors (GM) soared on strong earnings, though Ford (F) tumbled on its results. Oil stocks skidded as energy prices retreated.Market Rally Decisively Clears Key ResistanceThe market rally continued rising, as investors hailed Fed chief Jerome Powell's comments and often-mixed earnings, taking a strong jobs report in stride. The Nasdaq and small-cap Russell 2000 moved decisively above their late 2022 highs. The S&P 500 also cleared its recent peaks, while the Dow Jones faced some struggles. Crude oil futures retreated significantly, while natural gas continued to tumble. Treasury yields tumbled to their lowest levels in several months.Fed Tame As Jobs RoarThe Federal Reserve hiked its key rate a quarter-point and signaled at least two more hikes still to come. With Wall Street betting that the Fed will pause after just one more hike in March, that guidance could have been a downer. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell seemed to fire up animal spirits by hailing disinflationary trends, while sounding upbeat about a soft landing for the U.S. economy and expressing no qualms about easing financial conditions. However, the January jobs report out on Friday showed hiring surged in January with unemployment falling to the lowest level since 1969. However, wage gains slowed to 4.4%, lowest since August 2021. Still, hiring strength and a new rock-bottom for unemployment have shifted odds slightly in favor of two more rate hikes. Meanwhile, the ISM U.S. manufacturing index was weak, but the ISM's service-sector gauge showed a big jump.Meta Platforms Surges On 2023 OutlookMeta Platforms (META) reported a 52% EPS decline, in line with views, while revenue fell 4%, slightly topping. Shares surged as the Facebook parent vowed to make 2023 a \"year of efficiency\" following massive spending on the metaverse in 2022. Meta guided up on Q1 revenue and slashed capital spending and other planned expenses for the year. It also announced a $40 billion buyback.Apple Misses Holiday-Quarter TargetsConsumer electronics giant Apple (AAPL) missed its December-quarter sales and earnings targets amid supply constraints and foreign exchange headwinds. Fiscal Q1 EPS fell 10% as sales sank 5% to $117.2 billion. Apple's iPhone revenue sank 8% to $65.8 billion after it couldn't make enough iPhone 14 Pro models to meet demand. Apple's Mac computer sales tumbled 29% to $7.7 billion. And revenue from Apple's wearables, home and accessories unit declined 8% to $13.5 billion. However, iPad sales rose 30% to $9.4 billion in the holiday quarter. And services revenue increased 6% to $20.8 billion.Amazon EPS Dives, Outlook WeakQ4 EPS crashed 98%, well below views. Revenue rose nearly 9% to $149.2 billion, topping views, but slowing from Q3's 15%. Amazon Web Services revenue popped 20%, slowing from Q3's 27.5% and slightly below views. Amazon (AMZN) guided Q1 revenue forecasts lower, with high-margin AWS expected to show further deceleration in growth. Shares fell Friday but rose solidly for the week.Google Misses As Ad Revenue FallsGoogle-parent Alphabet (GOOGL) reported Q4 earnings and revenue that missed Wall Street targets amid slowing growth in internet search advertising, YouTube ads and cloud-computing services. Q4 earnings tumbled 31%. Gross revenue rose 1% to $76.05 billion. Advertising revenue fell 3% to $59.04 billion, missing estimates. In addition, ad revenue at Google's YouTube fell more than 7% to $7.96 billion. Google said cloud-computing revenue rose 32% to $7.32 billion, missing estimates of $7.44 billion. In Q3, cloud revenue rose 38%.Chipmakers Offer Weak OutlookSemiconductor manufacturers mostly guided Wall Street lower for the current period as they delivered earnings reports in the past week. Chipmakers offering a weak outlook included those exposed to personal computers and smartphones, such as Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Qorvo (QRVO) and Qualcomm (QCOM). Bucking the trend with beat-and-raise earnings reports were Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM), Microchip Technology (MCHP) and Silicon Labs (SLAB). They have greater exposure to automotive, industrial and Internet-of-Things markets.Oil Majors' Results MixedExxon Mobil (XOM) reported a 66% EPS gain, though the 12% revenue rise missed. Amid surging cash, Exxon plans on returning up to $35 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks in 2023. Shell (SHEL) EPS swelled 67% due to strong LNG and gas trading and refining margins, while revenue increased 19% to $101.3 billion. ConocoPhillips (COP) missed earnings and revenue views, though EPS was up 19% and sales 21%. It plans to return $11 billion to shareholders in 2023. Oil stocks generally fell amid skidding oil and gas prices.GM Crushes Views, Ford Leaves $2 Billion 'On The Table'General Motors (GM) crushed earnings and revenue estimates for the fourth quarter, while guiding for another solid year in 2023. Year over year, EPS grew 57%, accelerating from a 48% gain the prior quarter. Revenue rose 28%, but margins fell. Demand and pricing for GM vehicles \"remain strong,\" CFO Paul Jacobson said, amid recession fears. The auto giant also announced a hefty investment in Lithium Americas (LAC), as it ramps up on electric vehicles and lithium-based EV batteries. Ford (F) went the opposite way, missing Q4 earnings estimates and losing $2 billion for the full year due to poor execution, while giving a downbeat outlook for 2023. GM jumped, flashing a buy signal. Ford tumbled on results, slashing weekly gains.Meanwhile, new U.S. vehicle sales were stronger than expected in January as supply disruptions continue to ease.More crossover SUVs will be eligible for tax credits at prices up to $80,000, the U.S. government announced Friday in a reversal. That should benefit Tesla (TSLA) and Ford in particular.Homebuilders Rally On EarningsPulte Group (PHM), NVR (NVR) and Meritage (MTH) topped EPS and revenue views, with solid growth, though orders point to weaker results ahead. M.D.C. Holdings (MDC) missed on revenue. But all four homebuilders rallied solidly for the week, along with other builders and many other housing-related stocks. One outlier: Beazer Homes (BZH) reported mixed results and tumbled Friday.Drug Earnings MixedPfizer beat adjusted earnings expectations at $1.14 per share, up 45%, but sales rose just 2% and the drug giant projected massive declines for its Covid products this year. Merck (MRK), Eli Lilly (LLY) and Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) all beat quarterly expectations. But Lilly shares fell on lighter-than-expected sales for its newest diabetes treatment, Mounjaro. Bristol Myers' sales of generics-facing Revlimid plummeted 32% with declines expected to continue. Merck's 2023 outlook lagged. GSK (GSK) and Novo Nordisk (NVO), on the other hand, topped sales and per-share earnings forecasts, but Novartis (NVS) reported light profit. Sanofi (SNY) met EPS views but sales were light.Biotech EarningsAmgen (AMGN) fell 7%, just missing, while flat sales missed. Shares fell on its 2023 outlook, which didn't include Amgen's looming Horizon Therapeutics (HZNP) takeover. Gilead Sciences (GILD) popped after its earnings report, with EPS surging 142% and overall sales 2%, both easily beating. Regeneron (REGN) also beat forecasts, though sales tumbled 31% due to a downfall in Covid antibody sales, with adjusted EPS off 46%. Amgen fell sharply, while Gilead and Regeneron rose, with REGN flirting with a breakout.Caterpillar Profit DisappointsCaterpillar (CAT) earnings for Q4 rose 43% to $3.86, but missed estimates. Revenue climbed 20% to $16.6 billion, ahead of views. CAT stock, a global bellwether, has surged on a better global economic outlook led by China and Europe. Yet Caterpillar says it's not yet seeing higher demand in China. CAT stock tumbled to its 50-day line, but bounced somewhat Friday.Trucking Earnings On Different RoadsOld Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) earnings rose 21%, well above views. But ArcBest (ARCB) and Saia (SAIA) missed, with modest year-over-year EPS declines. ArcBest and Saia both noted that shipping tonnage fell and volume slowed during a \"softer freight environment.\" Still, revenue per shipment grew due to pricing increases. ODFL spiked. ArcBest and Saia initially tumbled on Friday, but rebounded to continue strong weekly gains.Footwear Makers Step UpDeckers Outdoor (DECK) reported a 24% EPS gain with revenue up 13%, both beating. Hoka running shoe sales spiked 91% to $352 million. But Deckers' guidance implied a slight Q4 miss. Skechers (SKX) posted an 18% per share profit decline with sales up 14%. The shoe maker guided low on revenue.Health Insurers Slide On Outlook ConcernsCigna (CI) edged past Q4 estimates with 4% growth, but the big commercial health insurer offered below-expected guidance for 2023, despite predicting a boost of 1.2 million members. CI stock sold off toward a three-month low. Leading Medicare Advantage player Humana (HUM) cruised past EPS estimates with 31% growth, while saying it'll earn at least as much as the consensus view in 2023. HUM stock rallied on the report, but it didn't last. That's because the government agency that oversees Medicare Advantage proposed the smallest increase since 2016 for next year.News In BriefGE HealthCare Technologies (GEHC) reported a 4% EPS drop with revenue up nearly 8% in its report since its spinoff from General Electric (GE). GEHC guided for modest growth in 2023.UPS (UPS) reported a 1% EPS gain, slightly beating, while revenue fell 3% to $27 billion, missing. The shipping giant announced a $5 billion buyback and hiked its dividend nearly 7%.McDonald's (MCD) reported 16% EPS growth while revenue dipped 1%, both beating. But shares fell as the fast-food giant warned that inflation concerns will affect margins.ChampionX (CHX) topped EPS views, but the drilling tech firm missed on revenue and guided low. CHX stock tumbled. Helmerich & Payne (HP) beat first-quarter 2023 earnings estimates Monday, with revenue up 76% to $720 million.World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) reported a 22% EPS drop while revenue rose 5%, both slightly missing views.Dynatrace (DT) reported fiscal Q3 EPS rose 38% while revenue climbed 24% to $297.5 million, both beating. Annual recurring revenue, or ARR, rose 25% to $1.163 billion, just topping estimates. The app monitoring software maker guided higher for current quarter revenue.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957121092,"gmtCreate":1677111685316,"gmtModify":1677111887024,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Written by fool","listText":"Written by fool","text":"Written by fool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":20,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957121092","repostId":"2313010470","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2313010470","pubTimestamp":1677110623,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2313010470?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-23 08:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Stocks Down More Than 50% to Buy Right Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2313010470","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"After sell-offs, these top tech stocks are set for big comebacks.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Tech stocks have seen some recovery momentum early in 2023&#39;s trading, but many top stocks still trade at big discounts compared to previous valuation highs. While the tech-heavy <b>Nasdaq Composite</b> index climbed roughly 10.3% year to date as of this writing, the index&#39;s level is still down more than 28% from its peak.</p><p>For investors looking to build long-term positions in top companies, there are still opportunities to buy stocks with the potential to deliver explosive returns at big discounts. Read on to see why two Motley Fool contributors believe that adding these two stocks to your portfolio would be a smart move right now.</p><h2>CrowdStrike&#39;s best days are still ahead</h2><p><b>Keith Noonan: </b>For hackers attempting to illegally gain access to networks, trying to exploit connected hardware devices is one of the most common avenues of attack. <b>CrowdStrike</b> stands as the leading provider of cloud-based endpoint device protection software, and its technologies prevent servers, mobile devices, and computers from being used as weak points for carrying out cyberattacks.</p><p>Despite providing essential, category-leading cybersecurity services, CrowdStrike saw its stock price slashed in conjunction with broader bearish trends for growth stocks and signs that economic conditions will create a less-favorable near-term growth outlook. CrowdStrike&#39;s stock currently trades down roughly 61% from its lifetime high, but I think that it stands a very good chance of bouncing back and delivering strong returns for patient investors.</p><p>Even with macroeconomic headwinds over the last year, CrowdStrike managed to increase revenue at an impressive clip, and it&#39;s got a large, fast-growing addressable market to continue expanding into. Management expects that it will have a total addressable market (TAM) of $76.1 billion this year. Based on its current software lineup, the company estimates that its TAM will grow at 13% compound annual growth rate from 2024 through 2025, reaching $97.8 billion.</p><p>With the company&#39;s guidance suggesting that it grew sales roughly 64% annually and reached revenue of approximately $2.23 billion last fiscal year, the business is still capturing just a small fraction of its addressable market. Rapid growth also shows that CrowdStrike is quickly gaining market share.</p><p>But the opportunity going forward actually looks even better. Spurred on by market growth for its existing service categories, new product launches, and an unfolding cloud security opportunity, management expects that the company&#39;s TAM in 2026 will actually be $158 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98a23041d3f1435d35f27348078cadab\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CRWD PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p><p>With the company valued at approximately 57 times expected forward earnings and 9 times expected forward sales, CrowdStrike undeniably has a highly growth-dependent valuation, even after some big sell-offs for the stock. But its price-to-earnings and price-to-sales ratios also look low on a historical basis, and I believe the company&#39;s long-term growth story is still in its very early innings.</p><h2><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a> has dealt with significant challenges effectively in the past</h2><p><b>Parkev Tatevosian:</b> Down 54% off its high in 2021, this might be an excellent time to buy <b>Meta Platforms</b> stock. The social media giant boasts billions of monthly active users across its family of apps, which are free to join and use. Meta makes its money by selling advertising to folks browsing the applications.</p><p>Additionally, Meta recently announced a premium plan that includes additional verification features and other benefits for users of some of its services who pay a monthly fee. It&#39;s too early to tell whether the premium service will gain widespread adoption.</p><p>Nevertheless, Meta has had no trouble turning the free service into a pot of gold. Between 2013 and 2022, Meta&#39;s revenue grew at a compounded annual rate of 36.8%. More impressively, the top-line growth boosted operating income from $2.8 billion to $28.9 billion in that same time frame.</p><p>Admittedly, that growth slowed in recent quarters as privacy policy changes implemented by <b>Apple</b> made it more difficult for Meta to sell targeted advertising. Marketers are willing to pay higher prices for precision ads because it reduces waste and increases return on investment.</p><p>This headwind goes some way to explaining why Meta&#39;s stock is trading at a discount. Still, the company has gone through challenging situations in the past and dealt with them successfully. Examples include the significant shift from desktop to mobile devices, and then from images to stories with multiple images uploaded in a single post.</p><p>All this suggests investors can be reasonably confident in Meta&#39;s ability to handle the current challenges effectively. Meanwhile, they can buy Meta&#39;s stock at a relatively cheap forward price-to-earnings ratio of 18.82.</p><h2>CrowdStrike and Meta Platforms are poised to deliver wins down the stretch</h2><p>Investors can use valuation pullbacks for top technology stocks as an opportunity to build positions that could translate to life-changing returns. CrowdStrike and Meta Platforms both enjoy leadership positions in their respective corners of the tech sector, and each of these companies looks poised to continue delivering wins over the long term. While the market may continue to be volatile in the near term, these two stocks stand out as worthwhile buys for investors looking to add top tech stocks to their portfolios.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Stocks Down More Than 50% to Buy Right Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Stocks Down More Than 50% to Buy Right Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-23 08:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/02/22/2-stocks-down-more-than-50-to-buy-right-now/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tech stocks have seen some recovery momentum early in 2023's trading, but many top stocks still trade at big discounts compared to previous valuation highs. While the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/02/22/2-stocks-down-more-than-50-to-buy-right-now/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/02/22/2-stocks-down-more-than-50-to-buy-right-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2313010470","content_text":"Tech stocks have seen some recovery momentum early in 2023's trading, but many top stocks still trade at big discounts compared to previous valuation highs. While the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index climbed roughly 10.3% year to date as of this writing, the index's level is still down more than 28% from its peak.For investors looking to build long-term positions in top companies, there are still opportunities to buy stocks with the potential to deliver explosive returns at big discounts. Read on to see why two Motley Fool contributors believe that adding these two stocks to your portfolio would be a smart move right now.CrowdStrike's best days are still aheadKeith Noonan: For hackers attempting to illegally gain access to networks, trying to exploit connected hardware devices is one of the most common avenues of attack. CrowdStrike stands as the leading provider of cloud-based endpoint device protection software, and its technologies prevent servers, mobile devices, and computers from being used as weak points for carrying out cyberattacks.Despite providing essential, category-leading cybersecurity services, CrowdStrike saw its stock price slashed in conjunction with broader bearish trends for growth stocks and signs that economic conditions will create a less-favorable near-term growth outlook. CrowdStrike's stock currently trades down roughly 61% from its lifetime high, but I think that it stands a very good chance of bouncing back and delivering strong returns for patient investors.Even with macroeconomic headwinds over the last year, CrowdStrike managed to increase revenue at an impressive clip, and it's got a large, fast-growing addressable market to continue expanding into. Management expects that it will have a total addressable market (TAM) of $76.1 billion this year. Based on its current software lineup, the company estimates that its TAM will grow at 13% compound annual growth rate from 2024 through 2025, reaching $97.8 billion.With the company's guidance suggesting that it grew sales roughly 64% annually and reached revenue of approximately $2.23 billion last fiscal year, the business is still capturing just a small fraction of its addressable market. Rapid growth also shows that CrowdStrike is quickly gaining market share.But the opportunity going forward actually looks even better. Spurred on by market growth for its existing service categories, new product launches, and an unfolding cloud security opportunity, management expects that the company's TAM in 2026 will actually be $158 billion.CRWD PE Ratio (Forward) data by YChartsWith the company valued at approximately 57 times expected forward earnings and 9 times expected forward sales, CrowdStrike undeniably has a highly growth-dependent valuation, even after some big sell-offs for the stock. But its price-to-earnings and price-to-sales ratios also look low on a historical basis, and I believe the company's long-term growth story is still in its very early innings.Meta Platforms has dealt with significant challenges effectively in the pastParkev Tatevosian: Down 54% off its high in 2021, this might be an excellent time to buy Meta Platforms stock. The social media giant boasts billions of monthly active users across its family of apps, which are free to join and use. Meta makes its money by selling advertising to folks browsing the applications.Additionally, Meta recently announced a premium plan that includes additional verification features and other benefits for users of some of its services who pay a monthly fee. It's too early to tell whether the premium service will gain widespread adoption.Nevertheless, Meta has had no trouble turning the free service into a pot of gold. Between 2013 and 2022, Meta's revenue grew at a compounded annual rate of 36.8%. More impressively, the top-line growth boosted operating income from $2.8 billion to $28.9 billion in that same time frame.Admittedly, that growth slowed in recent quarters as privacy policy changes implemented by Apple made it more difficult for Meta to sell targeted advertising. Marketers are willing to pay higher prices for precision ads because it reduces waste and increases return on investment.This headwind goes some way to explaining why Meta's stock is trading at a discount. Still, the company has gone through challenging situations in the past and dealt with them successfully. Examples include the significant shift from desktop to mobile devices, and then from images to stories with multiple images uploaded in a single post.All this suggests investors can be reasonably confident in Meta's ability to handle the current challenges effectively. Meanwhile, they can buy Meta's stock at a relatively cheap forward price-to-earnings ratio of 18.82.CrowdStrike and Meta Platforms are poised to deliver wins down the stretchInvestors can use valuation pullbacks for top technology stocks as an opportunity to build positions that could translate to life-changing returns. CrowdStrike and Meta Platforms both enjoy leadership positions in their respective corners of the tech sector, and each of these companies looks poised to continue delivering wins over the long term. While the market may continue to be volatile in the near term, these two stocks stand out as worthwhile buys for investors looking to add top tech stocks to their portfolios.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":28,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968496969,"gmtCreate":1669278284151,"gmtModify":1676538177993,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Don't gamble. Invest","listText":"Don't gamble. Invest","text":"Don't gamble. Invest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968496969","repostId":"1193359618","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193359618","pubTimestamp":1669293016,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193359618?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-24 20:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: I Am Still Not Willing To Gamble","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193359618","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir is still not profitable but reported solid third quarter results and is still growin","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Palantir is still not profitable but reported solid third quarter results and is still growing with a healthy pace.</li><li>The company could continue to grow with a high pace in the years to come.</li><li>Stock-based compensations and the resulting dilution of outstanding shares are still discouraging for shareholders.</li><li>Although Palantir&#39;s stock has declined already 80% from its previous all-time high, the stock is still overvalued in my opinion and not a great investment.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a010feafd9264848fea7b7e30ebe25cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Scott Olson</span></p><p>My first and only article about Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) was published in February 2022. At that point, the stock was trading for $14 and although the stock had already declined 67% at that point from its previous all-time highs, I stated thatPalantir was a risky bet. In the meantime, the stock has been cut almost in half again and is now trading about 80% below its previous all-time high. Nevertheless, Palantir is still not a good investment, and I will explain why I am still cautious about the stock.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dde9d87a6c57be44bdc788e65a9bda1\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><h2>Quarterly Results</h2><p>We can start by looking at the third quarter results, which Palantir reported at the beginning of November. And for starters, we must point out that Palantir is still increasing with a solid growth rate while other technology companies are already struggling and are not able to report double-digit revenue growth anymore.</p><p>Revenue in the third quarter increased from $392.1 million in the same quarter last year to $477.9 million in this quarter – resulting in 21.9% year-over-year growth. Loss from operations declined from $91.9 million in Q3/21 to $62.2 million in Q3/22 and although Palantir could improve, the business is still not profitable. But diluted net loss per share increased from $0.05 to a loss of $0.06 in this quarter.</p><p>Additionally, the total customers for Palantir increased from 203 in the same quarter last year to 337 right now – resulting in 66% year-over-year growth. And compared to the previous quarter, Palantir added 33 net new customers.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/775a52ff7988f009fb5679e4a65341e4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Palantir Q3/22 Presentation</span></p><p>During the third quarter of fiscal 2022, Palantir closed 78 deals of at least $1 million with 32 of these deals being at least $5 million and 19 deals were at least $10 million.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44937fe9eca5417fd0c51facb9d3648f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Palantir Q3/22 Presentation</span></p><p>And when looking at the guidance for fiscal 2022, Palantir is now expecting $1.9 billion to $1.902 billion in revenue. Palantir raised its guidance and is now expecting an adjusted income from operations to be between $384 million to $386 million.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54098b8b48757becfeea0894faab6e65\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Palantir Q3/22 Presentation</span></p><h2>Growth Opportunities In Challenging Times</h2><p>But despite the raised guidance, when listening to Alexander Karp during the earnings calls or in interviews, he is seeing difficult times ahead. During the last earnings call, Alexander Karp made the following statement:</p><blockquote>By the way, that&#39;s why we prepared and then that&#39;s the technical thing. Why do we have 8 quarters of free cash flow? Do you think it&#39;s a coincidence, we were preparing for this. We have -- why do we have $2.4 billion in the bank and no debt? We weren&#39;t living in the metasphere. We were living in this world in the way we thought it would be -- and we&#39;ve been essentially -- you could even look at this as a prep. We&#39;re a prepper company. We&#39;ve been preparing it&#39;s like -- preppers have their rucksack and a rifle. We have PG, GAIA, Foundry and $2.4 billion in the bank and no debt. That&#39;s our company.</blockquote><p>And when looking at the balance sheet, Palantir is positioned quite well. On September 30, 2022, the company had $2,411 million in cash and cash equivalents as well as $57 million in short-term marketable securities. And aside from having no debt on the balance sheet, the company also has no goodwill on its balance sheet. In case of Palantir, 74% of its $3,319 million in total assets are highly liquid assets (cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities), which is good in case of crisis.</p><p>But not only is Palantir prepared for challenging times due to a solid balance sheet, Alexander Karp is also expecting the company to profit from the uncertain times ahead. During an interview with CNBC at the end of September, he made the following statement:</p><blockquote>Bad times are incredibly good for Palantir... bad times really uncover the durable companies, and tech is going through bad times... interest rates are the reason.</blockquote><p>Karp also states that Palantir’s software is at war – in Europe and around the world. And he sees the software as a way for nations to impose and defend their values. And Karp sees great growth potential in the years ahead – not only because Palantir might profit from bad times:</p><blockquote>We recognize that our path to growth is not always linear, but with the opportunity that lies ahead, we continue to recruit and retain the top talent at a time when other companies in the technology sector are slashing their plans and cutting workforces.</blockquote><blockquote>We have spent the last 2 decades building our products for the world in which we actually live. The disruption and uncertainty that we&#39;re seeing around us from Ukraine, the pandemic and inflation, it&#39;s driving customers towards us and to our software.</blockquote><p>In the second quarter earnings call, Alexander Karp said his ambition was to drive the company to $4.5 billion in revenue in 2025. In the same earnings call, Karp also expected that Palantir will finally be profitable in 2025. And of course, it is not unreasonable for Palantir to expect high growth rates. In its Form S-1. Palantir wrote its total addressable market [TAM] should be approximately $119 billion with the commercial sector being around $56 billion and the government sector being around $63 billion. This TAM is excluding institutions and countries where Palantir has chosen not to sell its software.</p><p>This seems to be in line with the expectations of other studies. And not only has Palantir a market share of only around 2% right now – giving the company enough room to grow by gaining market shares. Different studies are also expecting growth rates in the double digits for the market. When looking at the advanced analytics market, some expect even a CAGR above 20% in the years to come.</p><p>And during the last earnings call, Alexander Karp also pointed out where he is seeing the huge competitive advantage of Palantir – especially compared to peers like Microsoft (MSFT) or Snowflake (SNOW):</p><blockquote>The answer is really the ontology. It&#39;s why our platforms remain far ahead of the competition. And that&#39;s because the ontology, it&#39;s the missing link in terms of what you need to realize value from all of these investments. It&#39;s the component and the architecture that&#39;s required to get data apps to actually deliver value on top of cloud data warehouses or to get AI to scale throughout the enterprise or to turn your digital twin into something that&#39;s actionable and operational within the enterprise. And we&#39;ve spent 15 years investing in a road map that&#39;s deep and built upon the ontology, and it continues to be the focus of all the core investments that we&#39;re making around product.</blockquote><h2>Reservation Against Palantir</h2><p>But despite the competitive advantage Karp sees for Palantir in the years to come, the business is also facing risks in its path toward growth. In his last letter to shareholders, Alexander Karp wrote:</p><blockquote>It has been our experience, however, that some countries, particularly in continental Europe, including Germany, have fallen behind the United States in their willingness and ability to implement enterprise software systems that challenge existing habits and modes of operation.</blockquote><blockquote>There have been repeated attempts to build replicas of Silicon Valley in continental Europe, in Germany and elsewhere, but the results have been decidedly mixed.</blockquote><blockquote>We have found that large institutions in the United States have been far more willing to investigate the most significant sources of systemic dysfunction within their organizations, which in the current moment often relate to the ability or rather inability of an institution to metabolize its own data.</blockquote><p>And this is an aspect that should certainly not be underestimated for Palantir’s ambitions to grow in the years to come. And from a German perspective I think Karp is correct in his assessment of people living here (as well as institutions) having strong reservations against Palantir.</p><h2>Stock-Based Compensation Leading To Dilution</h2><p>Not only is the business facing several risks, but shareholders are also facing risks by owning the stock right now. And one huge risk shareholders are facing is the stock-based compensation which is leading to a constant dilution of shares and in the last few quarters, the number of outstanding shares increased with a high pace. Right now, we have 2,073 million outstanding shares compared to 1,964 million one year earlier and 1,763 million after the IPO of Palantir. This is resulting in an increase of almost 18% in less than two years and in my opinion, this is not a good sign for investors. And finally, this dilution has a huge negative impact on the intrinsic value of Palantir.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba9fe6b4274d2704f89363d89bcddb6a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Of course, stock-based compensations can also have a positive side as it is a good way to get great talent for the business and employees, that are behind the company and the company’s goals (as they are also profiting from a thriving business resulting in a higher share price). And this can certainly have a positive effect on the business in the long run. However, diluted in the high single digits annually is extreme – even for a company growing with a high pace.</p><h2>Intrinsic Value Calculation</h2><p>A final risk for shareholders is simply overpaying for a stock that is not worth what it is currently trading for.</p><p>We can start by looking at simple valuation metrics – especially the price-free-cash-flow ratio as well as the price-sales ratio. Looking at the price-earnings ratio doesn’t make much sense as the metric is negative. Of course, the price-sales ratio declined over the last year, but Palantir is still trading for 9 times sales which is certainly not cheap. When looking at the S&amp;P 500 (SPY), there are only about 45 companies trading with a higher price-sales ratio. And the median P/S ratio of the S&amp;P 500 is 2.72 at the time of writing. And even when looking at technology stocks (according to Finviz; market cap above $2 billion), the median P/S ratio is 4.41. But as long as we are talking about price-sales ratios we also have to point out that Snowflake is trading for 28 times sales right now and compared to these valuation multiples, Palantir’s valuation seems to be quite reasonable.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38f5a49a57b61fa9fbd749ed81950b1d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>When looking at the price-free-cash-flow ratio, Palantir is trading for a multiple of 84. Although this is below the 2021 P/FCF peak of 750 and below the average of 227, Palantir is still trading for extremely high valuation multiples (and usually even high growth rates can’t justify valuation multiples close to 100). And once again, we can point out that Snowflake is trading for a P/FCF ratio of 155 – twice as high as Palantir.</p><p>When using a discount cash flow calculation, we can take the free cash flow of the last four quarters as basis. But let’s be more optimistic and use the highest free cash flow Palantir could report so far ($320 million in free cash flow). When taking this amount as basis and assume 6% growth till perpetuity (like we always do with high quality businesses) the company must grow its free cash flow about 17% annually for the next ten years to be fairly valued (assuming 2,073 million outstanding shares and a 10% discount rate).</p><p>I would not say such growth rates are impossible for a company – we can find several examples of businesses growing with such a CAGR over 10 years or even longer. But 17% growth for 10 years would probably be one of the highest growth rates I ever used in an intrinsic value calculation just to reach fair value for a stock. And these calculations are assuming no further dilution of shares, which seems rather unlikely at this point. In the last two years, the company has been diluting in the high single digits and to set dilution off, Palantir rather must grow its free cash flow about 25% annually to be fairly valued for the next few years. And 25% growth is also not impossible but no growth rate I would use in any way (in my opinion, this would be investing based on hope).</p><h2>Conclusion</h2><p>Although the stock price is now more than 40% lower than when my last article was published, I am afraid the conclusion must be the same. The stock is still not fairly valued and not a great investment. With thousands of other stocks being available and us being able to identify at least 100 high-quality businesses with a wide economic moat, I don’t see any reason to bet on Palantir. A company where it is difficult to estimate the growth potential and where the huge stock-based compensations and resulting stock dilutions are offsetting to any investor. And the potential high growth potential Palantir could have is not enough at this point to bet on Palantir.</p><p><i>This article is written by Daniel Schönberger for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: I Am Still Not Willing To Gamble</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: I Am Still Not Willing To Gamble\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-24 20:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560037-palantir-pltr-still-overvalued><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir is still not profitable but reported solid third quarter results and is still growing with a healthy pace.The company could continue to grow with a high pace in the years to come.Stock...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560037-palantir-pltr-still-overvalued\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560037-palantir-pltr-still-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193359618","content_text":"SummaryPalantir is still not profitable but reported solid third quarter results and is still growing with a healthy pace.The company could continue to grow with a high pace in the years to come.Stock-based compensations and the resulting dilution of outstanding shares are still discouraging for shareholders.Although Palantir's stock has declined already 80% from its previous all-time high, the stock is still overvalued in my opinion and not a great investment.Scott OlsonMy first and only article about Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) was published in February 2022. At that point, the stock was trading for $14 and although the stock had already declined 67% at that point from its previous all-time highs, I stated thatPalantir was a risky bet. In the meantime, the stock has been cut almost in half again and is now trading about 80% below its previous all-time high. Nevertheless, Palantir is still not a good investment, and I will explain why I am still cautious about the stock.Data by YChartsQuarterly ResultsWe can start by looking at the third quarter results, which Palantir reported at the beginning of November. And for starters, we must point out that Palantir is still increasing with a solid growth rate while other technology companies are already struggling and are not able to report double-digit revenue growth anymore.Revenue in the third quarter increased from $392.1 million in the same quarter last year to $477.9 million in this quarter – resulting in 21.9% year-over-year growth. Loss from operations declined from $91.9 million in Q3/21 to $62.2 million in Q3/22 and although Palantir could improve, the business is still not profitable. But diluted net loss per share increased from $0.05 to a loss of $0.06 in this quarter.Additionally, the total customers for Palantir increased from 203 in the same quarter last year to 337 right now – resulting in 66% year-over-year growth. And compared to the previous quarter, Palantir added 33 net new customers.Palantir Q3/22 PresentationDuring the third quarter of fiscal 2022, Palantir closed 78 deals of at least $1 million with 32 of these deals being at least $5 million and 19 deals were at least $10 million.Palantir Q3/22 PresentationAnd when looking at the guidance for fiscal 2022, Palantir is now expecting $1.9 billion to $1.902 billion in revenue. Palantir raised its guidance and is now expecting an adjusted income from operations to be between $384 million to $386 million.Palantir Q3/22 PresentationGrowth Opportunities In Challenging TimesBut despite the raised guidance, when listening to Alexander Karp during the earnings calls or in interviews, he is seeing difficult times ahead. During the last earnings call, Alexander Karp made the following statement:By the way, that's why we prepared and then that's the technical thing. Why do we have 8 quarters of free cash flow? Do you think it's a coincidence, we were preparing for this. We have -- why do we have $2.4 billion in the bank and no debt? We weren't living in the metasphere. We were living in this world in the way we thought it would be -- and we've been essentially -- you could even look at this as a prep. We're a prepper company. We've been preparing it's like -- preppers have their rucksack and a rifle. We have PG, GAIA, Foundry and $2.4 billion in the bank and no debt. That's our company.And when looking at the balance sheet, Palantir is positioned quite well. On September 30, 2022, the company had $2,411 million in cash and cash equivalents as well as $57 million in short-term marketable securities. And aside from having no debt on the balance sheet, the company also has no goodwill on its balance sheet. In case of Palantir, 74% of its $3,319 million in total assets are highly liquid assets (cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities), which is good in case of crisis.But not only is Palantir prepared for challenging times due to a solid balance sheet, Alexander Karp is also expecting the company to profit from the uncertain times ahead. During an interview with CNBC at the end of September, he made the following statement:Bad times are incredibly good for Palantir... bad times really uncover the durable companies, and tech is going through bad times... interest rates are the reason.Karp also states that Palantir’s software is at war – in Europe and around the world. And he sees the software as a way for nations to impose and defend their values. And Karp sees great growth potential in the years ahead – not only because Palantir might profit from bad times:We recognize that our path to growth is not always linear, but with the opportunity that lies ahead, we continue to recruit and retain the top talent at a time when other companies in the technology sector are slashing their plans and cutting workforces.We have spent the last 2 decades building our products for the world in which we actually live. The disruption and uncertainty that we're seeing around us from Ukraine, the pandemic and inflation, it's driving customers towards us and to our software.In the second quarter earnings call, Alexander Karp said his ambition was to drive the company to $4.5 billion in revenue in 2025. In the same earnings call, Karp also expected that Palantir will finally be profitable in 2025. And of course, it is not unreasonable for Palantir to expect high growth rates. In its Form S-1. Palantir wrote its total addressable market [TAM] should be approximately $119 billion with the commercial sector being around $56 billion and the government sector being around $63 billion. This TAM is excluding institutions and countries where Palantir has chosen not to sell its software.This seems to be in line with the expectations of other studies. And not only has Palantir a market share of only around 2% right now – giving the company enough room to grow by gaining market shares. Different studies are also expecting growth rates in the double digits for the market. When looking at the advanced analytics market, some expect even a CAGR above 20% in the years to come.And during the last earnings call, Alexander Karp also pointed out where he is seeing the huge competitive advantage of Palantir – especially compared to peers like Microsoft (MSFT) or Snowflake (SNOW):The answer is really the ontology. It's why our platforms remain far ahead of the competition. And that's because the ontology, it's the missing link in terms of what you need to realize value from all of these investments. It's the component and the architecture that's required to get data apps to actually deliver value on top of cloud data warehouses or to get AI to scale throughout the enterprise or to turn your digital twin into something that's actionable and operational within the enterprise. And we've spent 15 years investing in a road map that's deep and built upon the ontology, and it continues to be the focus of all the core investments that we're making around product.Reservation Against PalantirBut despite the competitive advantage Karp sees for Palantir in the years to come, the business is also facing risks in its path toward growth. In his last letter to shareholders, Alexander Karp wrote:It has been our experience, however, that some countries, particularly in continental Europe, including Germany, have fallen behind the United States in their willingness and ability to implement enterprise software systems that challenge existing habits and modes of operation.There have been repeated attempts to build replicas of Silicon Valley in continental Europe, in Germany and elsewhere, but the results have been decidedly mixed.We have found that large institutions in the United States have been far more willing to investigate the most significant sources of systemic dysfunction within their organizations, which in the current moment often relate to the ability or rather inability of an institution to metabolize its own data.And this is an aspect that should certainly not be underestimated for Palantir’s ambitions to grow in the years to come. And from a German perspective I think Karp is correct in his assessment of people living here (as well as institutions) having strong reservations against Palantir.Stock-Based Compensation Leading To DilutionNot only is the business facing several risks, but shareholders are also facing risks by owning the stock right now. And one huge risk shareholders are facing is the stock-based compensation which is leading to a constant dilution of shares and in the last few quarters, the number of outstanding shares increased with a high pace. Right now, we have 2,073 million outstanding shares compared to 1,964 million one year earlier and 1,763 million after the IPO of Palantir. This is resulting in an increase of almost 18% in less than two years and in my opinion, this is not a good sign for investors. And finally, this dilution has a huge negative impact on the intrinsic value of Palantir.Data by YChartsOf course, stock-based compensations can also have a positive side as it is a good way to get great talent for the business and employees, that are behind the company and the company’s goals (as they are also profiting from a thriving business resulting in a higher share price). And this can certainly have a positive effect on the business in the long run. However, diluted in the high single digits annually is extreme – even for a company growing with a high pace.Intrinsic Value CalculationA final risk for shareholders is simply overpaying for a stock that is not worth what it is currently trading for.We can start by looking at simple valuation metrics – especially the price-free-cash-flow ratio as well as the price-sales ratio. Looking at the price-earnings ratio doesn’t make much sense as the metric is negative. Of course, the price-sales ratio declined over the last year, but Palantir is still trading for 9 times sales which is certainly not cheap. When looking at the S&P 500 (SPY), there are only about 45 companies trading with a higher price-sales ratio. And the median P/S ratio of the S&P 500 is 2.72 at the time of writing. And even when looking at technology stocks (according to Finviz; market cap above $2 billion), the median P/S ratio is 4.41. But as long as we are talking about price-sales ratios we also have to point out that Snowflake is trading for 28 times sales right now and compared to these valuation multiples, Palantir’s valuation seems to be quite reasonable.Data by YChartsWhen looking at the price-free-cash-flow ratio, Palantir is trading for a multiple of 84. Although this is below the 2021 P/FCF peak of 750 and below the average of 227, Palantir is still trading for extremely high valuation multiples (and usually even high growth rates can’t justify valuation multiples close to 100). And once again, we can point out that Snowflake is trading for a P/FCF ratio of 155 – twice as high as Palantir.When using a discount cash flow calculation, we can take the free cash flow of the last four quarters as basis. But let’s be more optimistic and use the highest free cash flow Palantir could report so far ($320 million in free cash flow). When taking this amount as basis and assume 6% growth till perpetuity (like we always do with high quality businesses) the company must grow its free cash flow about 17% annually for the next ten years to be fairly valued (assuming 2,073 million outstanding shares and a 10% discount rate).I would not say such growth rates are impossible for a company – we can find several examples of businesses growing with such a CAGR over 10 years or even longer. But 17% growth for 10 years would probably be one of the highest growth rates I ever used in an intrinsic value calculation just to reach fair value for a stock. And these calculations are assuming no further dilution of shares, which seems rather unlikely at this point. In the last two years, the company has been diluting in the high single digits and to set dilution off, Palantir rather must grow its free cash flow about 25% annually to be fairly valued for the next few years. And 25% growth is also not impossible but no growth rate I would use in any way (in my opinion, this would be investing based on hope).ConclusionAlthough the stock price is now more than 40% lower than when my last article was published, I am afraid the conclusion must be the same. The stock is still not fairly valued and not a great investment. With thousands of other stocks being available and us being able to identify at least 100 high-quality businesses with a wide economic moat, I don’t see any reason to bet on Palantir. A company where it is difficult to estimate the growth potential and where the huge stock-based compensations and resulting stock dilutions are offsetting to any investor. And the potential high growth potential Palantir could have is not enough at this point to bet on Palantir.This article is written by Daniel Schönberger for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":113,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9956444061,"gmtCreate":1674174858354,"gmtModify":1676538927523,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Very good","listText":"Very good","text":"Very good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9956444061","repostId":"1166337840","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166337840","pubTimestamp":1674173062,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166337840?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-20 08:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed’s Williams Says There’s More Work to Do to Cool Inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166337840","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"He says softer labor market, below-trend growth likely neededRemarks did not specify how large next ","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>He says softer labor market, below-trend growth likely needed</li><li>Remarks did not specify how large next rate hike should be</li></ul><p>Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said officials have not completed their aggressive tightening campaign to reduce stubborn price pressures.</p><p>“With inflation still high and indications of continued supply-demand imbalances, it is clear that monetary policy still has more work to do to bring inflation down to our 2% goal on a sustained basis,” Williams said Thursday in prepared remarks for an event in New York with the Fixed Income Analysts Society, Inc.</p><p>Fed officials lifted rates by a half-point in December, slowing down the pace of their moves following four 75 basis-point increases. The rate hike brought the target on the Fed’s benchmark rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, up sharply from near-zero levels last March.</p><p>Investors expect the US central bank to raise rates by a quarter point at its next meeting on Jan. 31 - Feb. 1, followed by another similar increase in March, according to pricing of futures contracts. Several Fed officials speaking in recent days have endorsed using smaller 25 basis-point rate increases as a way to move more cautiously as they approach the end point for interest rates.</p><p>Williams did not specify in his remarks how high he expects rates will need to go to calm price gains, or what size move officials should take when they meet in two weeks.</p><p>The New York Fed chief said taming inflation will likely require “below trend” economic growth and a softening of the labor market. “But restoring price stability is essential to achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer term, and it is critical that we stay the course until the job is done,” he said.</p><p>His remarks echoed a speech made earlier Thursday by Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard titled “Staying the Course to Bring Inflation Down.”</p><p>Policymakers see rates rising to 5.1% by the end of this year, according to median quarterly projections released by the Fed last month. Officials say they expect to hold rates at restrictive levels for some time to allow their actions to travel throughout the economy.</p><p>Williams also noted that the central bank’s balance sheet reduction plan is going smoothly and the Fed will keep shrinking holdings of mortgage-backed securities and Treasury securities as planned.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed’s Williams Says There’s More Work to Do to Cool Inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed’s Williams Says There’s More Work to Do to Cool Inflation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-20 08:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-19/fed-s-williams-says-there-s-more-work-to-do-on-cooling-inflation?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>He says softer labor market, below-trend growth likely neededRemarks did not specify how large next rate hike should beFederal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said officials have not ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-19/fed-s-williams-says-there-s-more-work-to-do-on-cooling-inflation?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-19/fed-s-williams-says-there-s-more-work-to-do-on-cooling-inflation?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166337840","content_text":"He says softer labor market, below-trend growth likely neededRemarks did not specify how large next rate hike should beFederal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said officials have not completed their aggressive tightening campaign to reduce stubborn price pressures.“With inflation still high and indications of continued supply-demand imbalances, it is clear that monetary policy still has more work to do to bring inflation down to our 2% goal on a sustained basis,” Williams said Thursday in prepared remarks for an event in New York with the Fixed Income Analysts Society, Inc.Fed officials lifted rates by a half-point in December, slowing down the pace of their moves following four 75 basis-point increases. The rate hike brought the target on the Fed’s benchmark rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, up sharply from near-zero levels last March.Investors expect the US central bank to raise rates by a quarter point at its next meeting on Jan. 31 - Feb. 1, followed by another similar increase in March, according to pricing of futures contracts. Several Fed officials speaking in recent days have endorsed using smaller 25 basis-point rate increases as a way to move more cautiously as they approach the end point for interest rates.Williams did not specify in his remarks how high he expects rates will need to go to calm price gains, or what size move officials should take when they meet in two weeks.The New York Fed chief said taming inflation will likely require “below trend” economic growth and a softening of the labor market. “But restoring price stability is essential to achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer term, and it is critical that we stay the course until the job is done,” he said.His remarks echoed a speech made earlier Thursday by Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard titled “Staying the Course to Bring Inflation Down.”Policymakers see rates rising to 5.1% by the end of this year, according to median quarterly projections released by the Fed last month. Officials say they expect to hold rates at restrictive levels for some time to allow their actions to travel throughout the economy.Williams also noted that the central bank’s balance sheet reduction plan is going smoothly and the Fed will keep shrinking holdings of mortgage-backed securities and Treasury securities as planned.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":186,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111725206,"gmtCreate":1622701926505,"gmtModify":1704189234325,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Playing with fire is really enjoyable","listText":"Playing with fire is really enjoyable","text":"Playing with fire is really enjoyable","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/111725206","repostId":"1105752559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105752559","pubTimestamp":1622694904,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105752559?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-03 12:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: What’s the smart way to play AMC’s stock? Try these two options strategies","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105752559","media":"Market Wacth","summary":"AMC shares are super-volatile amid a short squeeze. Options can be a way to capitalize on the moves,","content":"<p>AMC shares are super-volatile amid a short squeeze. Options can be a way to capitalize on the moves, with a measure of prudence.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a> Holdings shares are once again exploding, having been caught in a short squeeze.</p><p>The stock’s realized and implied volatilities are soaring. AMC at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> point today more than doubled. There are two options strategies, below, to try to capitalize off this uncommon move. (Note that the data in this article are as of the close of trading June 1.)</p><p>The first chart of AMCAMC,+95.22%,below, tracks two years, showing the stock had been in a general decline through most of 2019. In fact, AMC had been falling since making all-time highs in the mid-$30s in 2015 and 2016.</p><p>The stock then slumped further due to the pandemic. Things began to change, however, when it rallied amid a short squeeze in late January 2021. The stock exploded from $2 to $20 in less than a month.</p><p>Now another short squeeze is under way, and the stock has risen from $9 to over $60 in the last month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd994b6947e51ac1dd241aebc098785c\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is impossible to justify these moves in terms of fundamental or even technical analysis, but there are opportunities presented by the options markets. As might be expected, the options have gotten extremely expensive. The next chart is a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-year, showing the<i>composite</i>implied volatility of AMC options on top and the price of the stock on the bottom. (Composite implied volatility is a weighted volatility of the most active options on AMC.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0833b40f70599f8f813f2c0eaa3a7c8b\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The composite implied volatility has risen to more than 200%. (Don’t worry about what that means statistically, just use it as a comparative measure — 200% is a<i>lot</i>higher than the “normal” volatility, up to four times that of its pre-pandemic level.)</p><p>So, what option strategies make sense? Simply buying expensive options is justifiable while volatility remains high, believe it or not. The 10-day realized (historical) volatility of AMC is now an astounding 211%. The 20-day historical volatility (HV) is 160%.</p><p>However, those volatilities will drop quickly if the stock starts to stabilize — wherever that may be.&nbsp;But as long as they hold up, at-the-money options are not a lot more expensive than that, in terms of implied volatility. However,<i>out-of-the-money</i>options are much more expensive, and those are generally unattractive purchases — certainly not based on a statistical basis.</p><p>Many traders want to sell the options because they think they are so overpriced. Well, they may be overpriced, but at current volatility levels, the stock can move a great distance and cause ruin for an options-selling strategy.</p><p>One can see from the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>-year chart of AMC that after the last short squeeze, the stock dropped quickly, but never got back to the prices from which the short squeeze was launched. That is typical behavior in a short squeeze.</p><p>Consider the two following charts — of Riot BlockchainRIOT,+2.74%and GameStopGME,+13.34%— both of which have been short squeezes. RIOT was also a short squeeze when it first came public, in late 2017 (not shown on the chart).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fda30eb7b24e1715b109a7c7f42a2623\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e235888f2cd914eacad62e402d2397c7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In both of those cases, a similar pattern appears: The short squeeze ends, the stock falls, but not all the way back to its “pre-squeeze” price, at least not for a while.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> options strategies could take advantage of this:</p><ol><li><b>A bear put spread.</b>Buy puts with striking prices just below the current elevated stock&nbsp; price<i>and</i>sell puts with a significantly lower strike price. This strategy generally has an advantage in that the implied volatility of the put you are buying is lower than the implied volatility of the put you are selling. You can’t lose more money than the debit you pay for the spread, but you could lose 100% of that debit if the stock continues to rise and the options expire worthless.</li><li><b>Sell put credit spreads with strikes at or near the price of AMC</b><b><i>prior</i></b><b>to the short squeeze.</b>AMC was in the teens before this latest round of short squeeze began. The potential gain here would be the credit initially received, but the margin requirement — which is equal to the risk in the spread — is the difference in the strikes, less the credit received.&nbsp;A derivative of this strategy, for extremely aggressive accounts, would be to sell puts (naked) with strikes in the teens.</li></ol><p>Obviously, there are lot of options combinations that could be considered, but these are two relatively simple spread strategies that will pay off if AMC behaves like other short squeezes: Eventually the stock peaks and begins to fall, but it doesn’t fall far enough to reach its “pre-squeeze” levels.</p>","source":"lsy1604288433698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: What’s the smart way to play AMC’s stock? Try these two options strategies</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: What’s the smart way to play AMC’s stock? Try these two options strategies\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-03 12:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/whats-the-smart-way-to-play-amcs-stock-try-these-two-options-strategies-11622657539?mod=home-page><strong>Market Wacth</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AMC shares are super-volatile amid a short squeeze. Options can be a way to capitalize on the moves, with a measure of prudence.AMC Entertainment Holdings shares are once again exploding, having been ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/whats-the-smart-way-to-play-amcs-stock-try-these-two-options-strategies-11622657539?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/whats-the-smart-way-to-play-amcs-stock-try-these-two-options-strategies-11622657539?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105752559","content_text":"AMC shares are super-volatile amid a short squeeze. Options can be a way to capitalize on the moves, with a measure of prudence.AMC Entertainment Holdings shares are once again exploding, having been caught in a short squeeze.The stock’s realized and implied volatilities are soaring. AMC at one point today more than doubled. There are two options strategies, below, to try to capitalize off this uncommon move. (Note that the data in this article are as of the close of trading June 1.)The first chart of AMCAMC,+95.22%,below, tracks two years, showing the stock had been in a general decline through most of 2019. In fact, AMC had been falling since making all-time highs in the mid-$30s in 2015 and 2016.The stock then slumped further due to the pandemic. Things began to change, however, when it rallied amid a short squeeze in late January 2021. The stock exploded from $2 to $20 in less than a month.Now another short squeeze is under way, and the stock has risen from $9 to over $60 in the last month.It is impossible to justify these moves in terms of fundamental or even technical analysis, but there are opportunities presented by the options markets. As might be expected, the options have gotten extremely expensive. The next chart is a one-year, showing thecompositeimplied volatility of AMC options on top and the price of the stock on the bottom. (Composite implied volatility is a weighted volatility of the most active options on AMC.)The composite implied volatility has risen to more than 200%. (Don’t worry about what that means statistically, just use it as a comparative measure — 200% is alothigher than the “normal” volatility, up to four times that of its pre-pandemic level.)So, what option strategies make sense? Simply buying expensive options is justifiable while volatility remains high, believe it or not. The 10-day realized (historical) volatility of AMC is now an astounding 211%. The 20-day historical volatility (HV) is 160%.However, those volatilities will drop quickly if the stock starts to stabilize — wherever that may be. But as long as they hold up, at-the-money options are not a lot more expensive than that, in terms of implied volatility. However,out-of-the-moneyoptions are much more expensive, and those are generally unattractive purchases — certainly not based on a statistical basis.Many traders want to sell the options because they think they are so overpriced. Well, they may be overpriced, but at current volatility levels, the stock can move a great distance and cause ruin for an options-selling strategy.One can see from the one-year chart of AMC that after the last short squeeze, the stock dropped quickly, but never got back to the prices from which the short squeeze was launched. That is typical behavior in a short squeeze.Consider the two following charts — of Riot BlockchainRIOT,+2.74%and GameStopGME,+13.34%— both of which have been short squeezes. RIOT was also a short squeeze when it first came public, in late 2017 (not shown on the chart).In both of those cases, a similar pattern appears: The short squeeze ends, the stock falls, but not all the way back to its “pre-squeeze” price, at least not for a while.Two options strategies could take advantage of this:A bear put spread.Buy puts with striking prices just below the current elevated stock  priceandsell puts with a significantly lower strike price. This strategy generally has an advantage in that the implied volatility of the put you are buying is lower than the implied volatility of the put you are selling. You can’t lose more money than the debit you pay for the spread, but you could lose 100% of that debit if the stock continues to rise and the options expire worthless.Sell put credit spreads with strikes at or near the price of AMCpriorto the short squeeze.AMC was in the teens before this latest round of short squeeze began. The potential gain here would be the credit initially received, but the margin requirement — which is equal to the risk in the spread — is the difference in the strikes, less the credit received. A derivative of this strategy, for extremely aggressive accounts, would be to sell puts (naked) with strikes in the teens.Obviously, there are lot of options combinations that could be considered, but these are two relatively simple spread strategies that will pay off if AMC behaves like other short squeezes: Eventually the stock peaks and begins to fall, but it doesn’t fall far enough to reach its “pre-squeeze” levels.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":55,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3575451051162247","authorId":"3575451051162247","name":"jimmyjr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69b1c06a795502492bc5eb64b48323c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575451051162247","authorIdStr":"3575451051162247"},"content":"Fun For the winners","text":"Fun For the winners","html":"Fun For the winners"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949410085,"gmtCreate":1678810212747,"gmtModify":1678810670403,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hahaha another Fool recommendation&nbsp;","listText":"Hahaha another Fool recommendation&nbsp;","text":"Hahaha another Fool recommendation","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":16,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949410085","repostId":"2319074636","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":27,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9015749192,"gmtCreate":1649557957049,"gmtModify":1676534530003,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Got to start buying BYD","listText":"Got to start buying BYD","text":"Got to start buying BYD","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9015749192","repostId":"1148267541","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148267541","pubTimestamp":1649557096,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148267541?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-10 10:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bulls And Bears Of The Week: Apple, Twitter, Alcoa, BYD, Ford And This E-commerce Platform","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148267541","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Federal Reserve policy and the war in Ukraine continued to weigh on investors, leading to a down wee","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Federal Reserve policy and the war in Ukraine continued to weigh on investors, leading to a down week on Wall Street, as all three major indexes ended the week lower.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 fell by 1.3%, ending a three-week winning streak which was its best performance since November 2020. Meanwhile, the Dow was down slightly by 0.3% and the Nasdaq saw the biggest loss among the three indices, declining by 3.9%.</p><p>The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to the highest level since March 2019 as bond prices fell sharply lower.</p><p>Benzinga continues to examine the prospects for many of the stocks most popular with investors. Here are a few of this past week&#39;s most bullish and bearish posts that are worth another look.</p><p>The Bulls</p><p>&#34;Does Elon Musk&#39;s Investment Make Twitter A Serious Buyout Candidate?&#34; by Wayne Duggan, explains why a former hedge fund manager thinks <b>Elon Musk&#39;s</b> ownership stake in <b>Twitter Inc</b> likely means a full company buyout is inevitable.</p><p>In &#34;Why This Boring Sector Could Be A Top Trender In The Next Few Years,&#34; AJ Fabino writes that the metals and mining sector may not be the most exciting group of assets at the moment, but that could change in the coming years for companies like <b>Alcoa Corp</b>.</p><p>&#34;Tesla Bull Cathie Wood Increased Stake in This Warren Buffett-backed Chinese EV Maker On Monday,&#34; by Rachit Vats, says <b>Cathie Wood</b>-led <b>Ark Investment Management</b> this week further raised its exposure in <b>BYD Co Ltd</b>, a Chinese electric vehicle maker that has the backing of veteran investor <b>Warren Buffett&#39;s</b> <b>Berkshire Hathaway Inc</b>.</p><p>The Bears</p><p>&#34;Apple Analyst Warns Of &#39;Considerable Risk&#39; For Tech Sector In Coming Months,&#34; by Shanthi Rexaline, looks at why a famed <b>Apple Inc</b> analyst warned on Thursday that there could be more pain ahead for tech stocks.</p><p>In &#34;&#39;These Are Not EV Names Yet&#39;: Why Pete Najarian Is Backing Out Of Ford, GM Stock,&#34; Adam Eckert writes about why Market Rebellion co-founder <b>Pete Najarian</b> sold out of his<b>Ford Motor Co</b> call options and would have done the same with his <b>General Motors Co</b> calls.</p><p>&#34;Shopify Is Facing A Class-Action Lawsuit From Crypto Holders: What You Need To Know,&#34; by Samyuktha Sriram, provides details on  E-commerce platform <b>Shopify Inc</b> being named in a class-action lawsuit for allegedly failing to safeguard consumer information in a 2020 data breach impacting <b>Ledger</b> cryptocurrency wallets.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bulls And Bears Of The Week: Apple, Twitter, Alcoa, BYD, Ford And This E-commerce Platform</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBulls And Bears Of The Week: Apple, Twitter, Alcoa, BYD, Ford And This E-commerce Platform\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-10 10:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/22/04/26499435/benzinga-bulls-and-bears-of-the-week-apple-twitter-alcoa-byd-ford-and-this-e-commerce-pl><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Federal Reserve policy and the war in Ukraine continued to weigh on investors, leading to a down week on Wall Street, as all three major indexes ended the week lower.The S&P 500 fell by 1.3%, ending a...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/22/04/26499435/benzinga-bulls-and-bears-of-the-week-apple-twitter-alcoa-byd-ford-and-this-e-commerce-pl\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BYDDY":"比亚迪ADR","TWTR":"Twitter","F":"福特汽车","AAPL":"苹果","AA":"美国铝业"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/22/04/26499435/benzinga-bulls-and-bears-of-the-week-apple-twitter-alcoa-byd-ford-and-this-e-commerce-pl","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148267541","content_text":"Federal Reserve policy and the war in Ukraine continued to weigh on investors, leading to a down week on Wall Street, as all three major indexes ended the week lower.The S&P 500 fell by 1.3%, ending a three-week winning streak which was its best performance since November 2020. Meanwhile, the Dow was down slightly by 0.3% and the Nasdaq saw the biggest loss among the three indices, declining by 3.9%.The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to the highest level since March 2019 as bond prices fell sharply lower.Benzinga continues to examine the prospects for many of the stocks most popular with investors. Here are a few of this past week's most bullish and bearish posts that are worth another look.The Bulls\"Does Elon Musk's Investment Make Twitter A Serious Buyout Candidate?\" by Wayne Duggan, explains why a former hedge fund manager thinks Elon Musk's ownership stake in Twitter Inc likely means a full company buyout is inevitable.In \"Why This Boring Sector Could Be A Top Trender In The Next Few Years,\" AJ Fabino writes that the metals and mining sector may not be the most exciting group of assets at the moment, but that could change in the coming years for companies like Alcoa Corp.\"Tesla Bull Cathie Wood Increased Stake in This Warren Buffett-backed Chinese EV Maker On Monday,\" by Rachit Vats, says Cathie Wood-led Ark Investment Management this week further raised its exposure in BYD Co Ltd, a Chinese electric vehicle maker that has the backing of veteran investor Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc.The Bears\"Apple Analyst Warns Of 'Considerable Risk' For Tech Sector In Coming Months,\" by Shanthi Rexaline, looks at why a famed Apple Inc analyst warned on Thursday that there could be more pain ahead for tech stocks.In \"'These Are Not EV Names Yet': Why Pete Najarian Is Backing Out Of Ford, GM Stock,\" Adam Eckert writes about why Market Rebellion co-founder Pete Najarian sold out of hisFord Motor Co call options and would have done the same with his General Motors Co calls.\"Shopify Is Facing A Class-Action Lawsuit From Crypto Holders: What You Need To Know,\" by Samyuktha Sriram, provides details on  E-commerce platform Shopify Inc being named in a class-action lawsuit for allegedly failing to safeguard consumer information in a 2020 data breach impacting Ledger cryptocurrency wallets.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175732322,"gmtCreate":1627048831666,"gmtModify":1703483304532,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Foolish advice","listText":"Foolish advice","text":"Foolish advice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/175732322","repostId":"2153983997","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153983997","pubTimestamp":1627045860,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2153983997?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-23 21:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks to Buy Whether or Not a Market Crash Is Near","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153983997","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Maybe the market is about to crash, and maybe it isn't. These stocks look like good picks either way.","content":"<p>Rising COVID-19 cases. Concerns about the highly contagious delta variant. The possibility of another housing bubble bursting. These are some of the reasons why worries are increasing among investors that a stock market crash could be on the way.</p>\n<p>One of the biggest stock market bears, Harry Dent Jr., who predicted the dot.com bubble collapsing, even thinks that a market meltdown is likely within the next three months. Is all of the pessimism warranted? Maybe, maybe not.</p>\n<p>If you're leery about what's around the corner, here are three stocks to buy if a market crash is coming soon. And the great news about these stocks is that they're solid picks even if it doesn't happen.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3105d12ec8b203883b5e91a709172e8b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Image source: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTY\">Getty</a> Images.</p>\n<h3>BioNTech</h3>\n<p>I personally don't think a stock market crash is just around the corner. If <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> is, though, I suspect the cause will be the combination of the COVID-19 pandemic and sky-high market valuations. Assuming I'm right,&nbsp;<b>BioNTech</b> (NASDAQ:BNTX) should soar if the market crashes.</p>\n<p>A massive market sell-off due to COVID-19 worries would almost certainly light a fire beneath the stocks of the leading vaccine makers. My view is that BioNTech would be <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the biggest winners in the group.</p>\n<p>BioNTech and its partner <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a></b> (NYSE:PFE) are already moving forward with plans to test a vaccine that specifically targets the delta variant. That gives the companies a head start. BioNTech is by far the smallest of the companies with COVID-19 vaccines already on the market, which makes its shares more likely to jump higher on a positive catalyst. It's also easily the cheapest of these vaccine stocks, based on forward earnings multiples.</p>\n<p>What if there isn't an imminent market crash? BioNTech is still set to rake in billions of dollars with sales of its COVID-19 vaccine. The company will almost certainly use its growing cash stockpile to invest in expanding its pipeline. I think that BioNTech will be a winner over the long term, regardless of what happens over the short term.</p>\n<h3><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DG\">Dollar General</a></h3>\n<p>I've maintained for a long time that&nbsp;<b>Dollar <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGC\">General</a></b> (NYSE:DG) is one of the best stocks to own during a market downturn. That view seemed to be confirmed during the big market meltdown last year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0e75aa27d2d22b4296c80687da5be97\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>DG data by YCharts.</p>\n<p>Shares of Dollar General fell at first, but not nearly as much as most stocks did. Dollar General stock also rebounded much more quickly and trounced the overall market's return throughout the rest of the year.</p>\n<p>During uncertain times, consumers tighten their purse strings. That makes discount retailers such as Dollar General more attractive than ever.</p>\n<p>Even when the overall market performs well, though, Dollar General should still be able to grow. As a case in point, the company's shares delivered more than double the gain that the <b>S&amp;P 500</b> index did in the five years leading up to 2020 when the market was roaring.</p>\n<p>I think that Dollar General will be able to continue to beat the market. It's moving forward with an aggressive expansion strategy. The company is also undertaking a major initiative to \"establish itself as a health destination.\" While Dollar General didn't provide many details on exactly what its plans are, moving more into healthcare sounds like a smart move to me.</p>\n<h3>Viatris</h3>\n<p>There are at least two reasons why a given stock might hold up well during a big market sell-off. One is that its underlying business isn't impacted much by the reason behind the broader plunge. Another is that the stock is so cheap that investors scoop up shares if it falls much below its existing price. My take is that&nbsp;<b>Viatris</b> (NASDAQ:VTRS) qualifies on both of these criteria.</p>\n<p>Viatris specializes in biosimilars and generic drugs. Patients need these drugs, regardless of what the stock market does. The drugs are also less expensive than branded prescription drugs.</p>\n<p>The stock is irrefutably dirt cheap. Viatris' shares trade at a little over four times expected earnings. It's unlikely that the stock is going to move much lower because it would simply be too much of a steal for investors to ignore.</p>\n<p>Granted, Viatris probably won't keep up with the overall stock market's performance if the current uptrend continues. However, the company's dividend is attractive. And over the next several years, Viatris should achieve synergies resulting from the merger of Pfizer's Upjohn unit and Mylan, as well as launch new products that should drive growth.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks to Buy Whether or Not a Market Crash Is Near</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks to Buy Whether or Not a Market Crash Is Near\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-23 21:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/23/3-stocks-to-buy-whether-or-not-a-market-crash-is-n/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Rising COVID-19 cases. Concerns about the highly contagious delta variant. The possibility of another housing bubble bursting. These are some of the reasons why worries are increasing among investors ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/23/3-stocks-to-buy-whether-or-not-a-market-crash-is-n/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DG":"美国达乐公司","BNTX":"BioNTech SE","VTRS":"Viatris Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/23/3-stocks-to-buy-whether-or-not-a-market-crash-is-n/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153983997","content_text":"Rising COVID-19 cases. Concerns about the highly contagious delta variant. The possibility of another housing bubble bursting. These are some of the reasons why worries are increasing among investors that a stock market crash could be on the way.\nOne of the biggest stock market bears, Harry Dent Jr., who predicted the dot.com bubble collapsing, even thinks that a market meltdown is likely within the next three months. Is all of the pessimism warranted? Maybe, maybe not.\nIf you're leery about what's around the corner, here are three stocks to buy if a market crash is coming soon. And the great news about these stocks is that they're solid picks even if it doesn't happen.\n\nImage source: Getty Images.\nBioNTech\nI personally don't think a stock market crash is just around the corner. If one is, though, I suspect the cause will be the combination of the COVID-19 pandemic and sky-high market valuations. Assuming I'm right, BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX) should soar if the market crashes.\nA massive market sell-off due to COVID-19 worries would almost certainly light a fire beneath the stocks of the leading vaccine makers. My view is that BioNTech would be one of the biggest winners in the group.\nBioNTech and its partner Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) are already moving forward with plans to test a vaccine that specifically targets the delta variant. That gives the companies a head start. BioNTech is by far the smallest of the companies with COVID-19 vaccines already on the market, which makes its shares more likely to jump higher on a positive catalyst. It's also easily the cheapest of these vaccine stocks, based on forward earnings multiples.\nWhat if there isn't an imminent market crash? BioNTech is still set to rake in billions of dollars with sales of its COVID-19 vaccine. The company will almost certainly use its growing cash stockpile to invest in expanding its pipeline. I think that BioNTech will be a winner over the long term, regardless of what happens over the short term.\nDollar General\nI've maintained for a long time that Dollar General (NYSE:DG) is one of the best stocks to own during a market downturn. That view seemed to be confirmed during the big market meltdown last year.\n\nDG data by YCharts.\nShares of Dollar General fell at first, but not nearly as much as most stocks did. Dollar General stock also rebounded much more quickly and trounced the overall market's return throughout the rest of the year.\nDuring uncertain times, consumers tighten their purse strings. That makes discount retailers such as Dollar General more attractive than ever.\nEven when the overall market performs well, though, Dollar General should still be able to grow. As a case in point, the company's shares delivered more than double the gain that the S&P 500 index did in the five years leading up to 2020 when the market was roaring.\nI think that Dollar General will be able to continue to beat the market. It's moving forward with an aggressive expansion strategy. The company is also undertaking a major initiative to \"establish itself as a health destination.\" While Dollar General didn't provide many details on exactly what its plans are, moving more into healthcare sounds like a smart move to me.\nViatris\nThere are at least two reasons why a given stock might hold up well during a big market sell-off. One is that its underlying business isn't impacted much by the reason behind the broader plunge. Another is that the stock is so cheap that investors scoop up shares if it falls much below its existing price. My take is that Viatris (NASDAQ:VTRS) qualifies on both of these criteria.\nViatris specializes in biosimilars and generic drugs. Patients need these drugs, regardless of what the stock market does. The drugs are also less expensive than branded prescription drugs.\nThe stock is irrefutably dirt cheap. Viatris' shares trade at a little over four times expected earnings. It's unlikely that the stock is going to move much lower because it would simply be too much of a steal for investors to ignore.\nGranted, Viatris probably won't keep up with the overall stock market's performance if the current uptrend continues. However, the company's dividend is attractive. And over the next several years, Viatris should achieve synergies resulting from the merger of Pfizer's Upjohn unit and Mylan, as well as launch new products that should drive growth.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940592499,"gmtCreate":1678011061512,"gmtModify":1678012044062,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow I'd be a billionaire if I followed the Foolfrom 15 years ago","listText":"Wow I'd be a billionaire if I followed the Foolfrom 15 years ago","text":"Wow I'd be a billionaire if I followed the Foolfrom 15 years ago","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940592499","repostId":"2316113551","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2316113551","pubTimestamp":1678116820,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2316113551?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-06 23:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Prediction: These 3 S&P 500 Stocks Will at Least Double in 7 Years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2316113551","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These large-cap stocks should grow much larger.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>There&#39;s an old joke about a person being asked, &#34;How many people work in your office?&#34; The person responds, &#34;About half of them.&#34;</p><p>This punchline comes to mind when I look at the <b>S&amp;P 500</b>. Many of the stocks in the index don&#39;t perform all that well over time. But as the more-successful stocks outperform, they earn an increased weighting in the S&amp;P 500 because of their larger market caps.</p><p>Which stocks in the S&amp;P 500 will work the most for investors throughout this decade? It&#39;s impossible to know for sure. However, I&#39;ll make a prediction: The following three S&amp;P 500 stocks will at least double in seven years.</p><h2>1. Amazon</h2><p>The larger a company grows, the harder it can be to deliver the same rate of expansion. But that doesn&#39;t mean really big companies can&#39;t grow significantly. I think <b>Amazon</b> has proved this point in the past and will continue to do so.</p><p>When asked about Amazon, the first thoughts of many individuals would probably be about the company&#39;s online shopping platform or its Prime Video streaming service. My view is that both could be solid growth drivers over the coming years. But they won&#39;t be the most important factors in enabling the stock to double.</p><p>Instead, that honor belongs to Amazon Web Services (AWS). As much as 95% of worldwide IT spending goes toward on-premises hosting rather than in the cloud. CEO Andy Jassy expects &#34;the equation is going to shift and flip&#34; over the next 10 to 15 years with a lot more spending on cloud hosting versus on-premises hosting. If he&#39;s right (and I think he is), Amazon is a no-brainer stock to buy right now.</p><p>AWS already ranks as the biggest cloud-hosting provider. It&#39;s also Amazon&#39;s most profitable segment. The company&#39;s profits should explode by the end of the decade with the transition to the cloud. My confidence level is pretty high that Amazon&#39;s share price will at least double within seven years or less.</p><h2>2. Digital Realty Trust</h2><p><b>Digital Realty Trust</b> isn&#39;t the household name that Amazon is. However, the company should benefit from the same trend that Amazon will.</p><p>Digital Realty Trust owns more than 300 data centers. The transition to the cloud should be a key growth driver for the company.</p><p>A quick glance at Digital Realty Trust&#39;s top customers reveals a Who&#39;s Who in the technology world. A long list of major cloud providers, software specialists, social media companies, and telecommunications giants use Digital Realty Trust&#39;s data centers.</p><p>If you only look at Digital Realty&#39;s stock performance over the last 10 years, you might doubt that it could double by 2030. But it&#39;s important to consider total returns rather than share-price appreciation alone.</p><p>Digital Realty Trust is a real estate investment trust (REIT) and must return at least 90% of its income to shareholders to avoid paying federal taxes. Its dividend yield tops 4.8%. With that high yield, the stock won&#39;t have to deliver huge gains for Digital Realty Trust to generate total returns of 100% or more over the next seven years.</p><h2>3. Vertex Pharmaceuticals</h2><p>I think that <b>Vertex Pharmaceuticals</b> is another S&amp;P 500 stock with a clear path to doubling or more by 2030. The company already enjoys a monopoly in treating the underlying cause of cystic fibrosis (CF).</p><p>Vertex could increase its market by roughly 50% by securing additional approvals and reimbursement deals for its existing CF drugs and by achieving success with its experimental messenger RNA CF therapy VX-522.</p><p>But Vertex has even greater growth opportunities beyond CF. It hopes to win regulatory approvals for exa-cel, a gene-editing therapy developed with <b>CRISPR Therapeutics</b>, as soon as later this year. Exa-cel could generate peak annual sales of at least $2 billion in treating sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia.</p><p>Non-opioid pain drug VX-548 could also make it to market within the next couple of years. Vertex believes that this therapy has multibillion-dollar potential.</p><p>The big biotech is also making good progress in its clinical testing of inaxaplin in treating APOL1-mediated kidney disease (AMKD). There are more patients with AMKD than there are CF patients.</p><p>Vertex could have other major catalysts over the next few years as well, notably from progress with its clinical programs that could hold a cure for type 1 diabetes.</p><p>Biotech stocks face the risk that their pipeline programs could flop in clinical studies or fail to win regulatory approvals. But my view is that Vertex has enough arrows in its quiver that it will be able to double investors&#39; money within the next seven years.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Prediction: These 3 S&P 500 Stocks Will at Least Double in 7 Years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPrediction: These 3 S&P 500 Stocks Will at Least Double in 7 Years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-06 23:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/04/prediction-these-3-sp-500-stocks-will-double/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>There's an old joke about a person being asked, \"How many people work in your office?\" The person responds, \"About half of them.\"This punchline comes to mind when I look at the S&P 500. Many of the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/04/prediction-these-3-sp-500-stocks-will-double/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","VRTX":"福泰制药","DLR":"数字房地产信托公司"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/04/prediction-these-3-sp-500-stocks-will-double/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2316113551","content_text":"There's an old joke about a person being asked, \"How many people work in your office?\" The person responds, \"About half of them.\"This punchline comes to mind when I look at the S&P 500. Many of the stocks in the index don't perform all that well over time. But as the more-successful stocks outperform, they earn an increased weighting in the S&P 500 because of their larger market caps.Which stocks in the S&P 500 will work the most for investors throughout this decade? It's impossible to know for sure. However, I'll make a prediction: The following three S&P 500 stocks will at least double in seven years.1. AmazonThe larger a company grows, the harder it can be to deliver the same rate of expansion. But that doesn't mean really big companies can't grow significantly. I think Amazon has proved this point in the past and will continue to do so.When asked about Amazon, the first thoughts of many individuals would probably be about the company's online shopping platform or its Prime Video streaming service. My view is that both could be solid growth drivers over the coming years. But they won't be the most important factors in enabling the stock to double.Instead, that honor belongs to Amazon Web Services (AWS). As much as 95% of worldwide IT spending goes toward on-premises hosting rather than in the cloud. CEO Andy Jassy expects \"the equation is going to shift and flip\" over the next 10 to 15 years with a lot more spending on cloud hosting versus on-premises hosting. If he's right (and I think he is), Amazon is a no-brainer stock to buy right now.AWS already ranks as the biggest cloud-hosting provider. It's also Amazon's most profitable segment. The company's profits should explode by the end of the decade with the transition to the cloud. My confidence level is pretty high that Amazon's share price will at least double within seven years or less.2. Digital Realty TrustDigital Realty Trust isn't the household name that Amazon is. However, the company should benefit from the same trend that Amazon will.Digital Realty Trust owns more than 300 data centers. The transition to the cloud should be a key growth driver for the company.A quick glance at Digital Realty Trust's top customers reveals a Who's Who in the technology world. A long list of major cloud providers, software specialists, social media companies, and telecommunications giants use Digital Realty Trust's data centers.If you only look at Digital Realty's stock performance over the last 10 years, you might doubt that it could double by 2030. But it's important to consider total returns rather than share-price appreciation alone.Digital Realty Trust is a real estate investment trust (REIT) and must return at least 90% of its income to shareholders to avoid paying federal taxes. Its dividend yield tops 4.8%. With that high yield, the stock won't have to deliver huge gains for Digital Realty Trust to generate total returns of 100% or more over the next seven years.3. Vertex PharmaceuticalsI think that Vertex Pharmaceuticals is another S&P 500 stock with a clear path to doubling or more by 2030. The company already enjoys a monopoly in treating the underlying cause of cystic fibrosis (CF).Vertex could increase its market by roughly 50% by securing additional approvals and reimbursement deals for its existing CF drugs and by achieving success with its experimental messenger RNA CF therapy VX-522.But Vertex has even greater growth opportunities beyond CF. It hopes to win regulatory approvals for exa-cel, a gene-editing therapy developed with CRISPR Therapeutics, as soon as later this year. Exa-cel could generate peak annual sales of at least $2 billion in treating sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia.Non-opioid pain drug VX-548 could also make it to market within the next couple of years. Vertex believes that this therapy has multibillion-dollar potential.The big biotech is also making good progress in its clinical testing of inaxaplin in treating APOL1-mediated kidney disease (AMKD). There are more patients with AMKD than there are CF patients.Vertex could have other major catalysts over the next few years as well, notably from progress with its clinical programs that could hold a cure for type 1 diabetes.Biotech stocks face the risk that their pipeline programs could flop in clinical studies or fail to win regulatory approvals. But my view is that Vertex has enough arrows in its quiver that it will be able to double investors' money within the next seven years.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":25,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378150092,"gmtCreate":1619012429416,"gmtModify":1704718274683,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Back down to $500?!","listText":"Back down to $500?!","text":"Back down to $500?!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378150092","repostId":"1114709501","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114709501","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619012348,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1114709501?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-21 21:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla stock dropped more than 2% in morning trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114709501","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla stock dropped more than 2% in Wednesday morning trading.The launch of Tesla's super plant in B","content":"<p>Tesla stock&nbsp;dropped&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;2%&nbsp;in&nbsp;Wednesday morning trading.The launch of Tesla's super plant in Berlin is likely to be significantly delayed,according to&nbsp;German business daily.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b525edb3c12a6ee6740baf665aa59a9e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Previously, Zhengzhou Zhengdong New District Municipal Supervision Bureau ordered Tesla to provide the complete driving data half an hour before the accident unconditionally; in addition, in the first quarter, the registration volume of model 3 in California dropped 54% to 8060 vehicles year on year.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla stock dropped more than 2% in morning trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla stock dropped more than 2% in morning trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-21 21:39</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla stock&nbsp;dropped&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;2%&nbsp;in&nbsp;Wednesday morning trading.The launch of Tesla's super plant in Berlin is likely to be significantly delayed,according to&nbsp;German business daily.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b525edb3c12a6ee6740baf665aa59a9e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Previously, Zhengzhou Zhengdong New District Municipal Supervision Bureau ordered Tesla to provide the complete driving data half an hour before the accident unconditionally; in addition, in the first quarter, the registration volume of model 3 in California dropped 54% to 8060 vehicles year on year.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114709501","content_text":"Tesla stock dropped more than 2% in Wednesday morning trading.The launch of Tesla's super plant in Berlin is likely to be significantly delayed,according to German business daily.Previously, Zhengzhou Zhengdong New District Municipal Supervision Bureau ordered Tesla to provide the complete driving data half an hour before the accident unconditionally; in addition, in the first quarter, the registration volume of model 3 in California dropped 54% to 8060 vehicles year on year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9956540291,"gmtCreate":1674087066314,"gmtModify":1676538922417,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Haha","listText":"Haha","text":"Haha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9956540291","repostId":"2304398276","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2304398276","pubTimestamp":1674099652,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2304398276?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-19 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Down 22% to 30%, 3 Warren Buffett Dividend Stocks to Buy Right Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2304398276","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"This blend of growth and value provides a range of options for 2023 and beyond.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Warren Buffett&#39;s <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b> trounced the <b>S&amp;P 500</b> by more than a 22 percentage-point margin in 2022 -- marking Berkshire&#39;s best performance relative to the market since 2007.</p><p>Luckily for investors, the contents of Berkshire&#39;s equity portfolio are public information. But that doesn&#39;t mean that you should copy Buffett&#39;s holdings exactly.</p><p>Today, <b>Apple</b>, <b>Celanese</b>, and <b>United Parcel Service</b> are three Buffett dividend stocks that stand out more than the rest of the pack. Here&#39;s why.</p><h2>Apple stock is a great value</h2><p><b>Daniel Foelber (Apple):</b> Even after falling more than 25% from its all-time high, Apple remains Berkshire Hathaway&#39;s largest holding -- by far. It makes up 37% of Berkshire&#39;s public equity holdings. But Berkshire didn&#39;t buy the position all at once. In fact, it has been adding to the position regularly since 2016.</p><p>That year, Apple resembled a classic value stock with a powerful brand and a bargain-bin price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of less than 12. Today, Apple is much more expensive than it used to be -- with a P/E of around 22. But it trades at only a slight premium to the S&amp;P 500&#39;s multiple of 19. And there&#39;s every reason to believe Apple deserves a premium valuation now more than ever.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fadae7f3b7bbdf6b30aebbedc5d2c316\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>AAPL PE Ratio data by YCharts</p><p>Apple&#39;s bread and butter is still iPhone and Mac sales. But it has successfully expanded the depth and breadth of its product and services offering to create an integrated ecosystem and recurring revenue streams. So far, Apple has mostly stuck to consumer electronics. But the rise of Apple Pay, Apple Card, and Apple Music adds another layer of stickiness for Apple customers.</p><p>Perhaps the most impressive quality of Apple is its operating margin and free cash flow (FCF) yield. The company sports an operating margin of more than 30%, meaning it pockets 30 cents on the dollar in operating income. That is borderline unheard of in the consumer electronics industry. And it&#39;s a testament to Apple&#39;s ability to sell a growing list of premium-priced products and services to its loyal customer base.</p><p>FCF yield is a great way to determine how much extra cash a company has at its disposal for dividends, buybacks, and other use cases. Apple&#39;s FCF yield of 5.1% means the company could theoretically pay a 5.1% dividend yield entirely with FCF, or buy back 5.1% of its own stock per year with cash. That&#39;s a big advantage, because it allows Apple to either use that cash to reinvest in the business or step in and buy its own stock if it is depressed.</p><p>All told, a 22 P/E ratio when the S&amp;P 500&#39;s P/E ratio is 19 seems like a great deal given how powerful Apple&#39;s fundamentals are.</p><h2>Investing like Warren Buffett requires patience</h2><p><b>Lee Samaha (Celanese):</b> The chemical and specialty materials company is going through a difficult period. That includes a cyclical slowdown in the global economy, notably in Europe where the December S&amp;P Purchasing Managers&#39; Index showed chemicals output and new orders declining sharply.</p><p>Given the cyclical exposure of Celanese&#39;s polymers and materials -- which are used across the economy, from automotives to industrial and consumer products, and electronics -- its sales are likely to come under pressure, not least from declining polymer prices. Meanwhile, the company will be busy integrating its $11 billion purchase of the majority of <b>DuPont</b>&#39;s former mobility and materials segment,  a business that&#39;s underperforming Celanese&#39;s management expectations.</p><p>I&#39;ve addressed the near-term negatives first to illustrate why the stock trades at just seven times 2022 earnings expectations and just over eight times 2023 earnings. However, if you can tolerate the potential for near-term lousy news and focus on the long-term picture, the stock, which has declined nearly 37% over the past year, is a good option.</p><p>Plus, the acquisition will add geographic reach to its engineered materials segment and expand Celanese&#39;s leadership in new categories, while management is aiming for $500 million in run-rate synergies -- around 4.1% of estimated 2023 revenue -- within four years of the closing of the deal.</p><p>It all adds up to a company trading at a valuation cheap enough to offset near-term risk but with good long-term opportunities to improve underlying return on assets --a typical Buffett-like investment.</p><h2>Big Brown can deliver big passive income</h2><p><b>Scott Levine (UPS): </b>It may be one of the smallest positions in Berkshire Hathaway&#39;s portfolio, currently worth about $10 million, but that shouldn&#39;t preclude investors who want the reassurance of Buffett-approved dividend payers from picking up shares of UPS and its forward dividend yield of 3.4%.</p><p>While there are numerous companies that have been paying a dividend to shareholders longer than the 23 years that UPS has, it&#39;s important to recognize that UPS only held its initial public offering in 1999. In other words, since its debut on the public markets, UPS has rewarded shareholders with a dividend -- one that&#39;s never been reduced from one year to the next.</p><p>Over the past year, shares of UPS have dropped about 12%, representing a decline consistent with the S&amp;P 500&#39;s fall of about 14%.</p><p>Inauspicious as it may seem, the stock&#39;s fall doesn&#39;t reflect something inherently wrong with the company&#39;s performance. Instead, the stock&#39;s poor performance stems from investors&#39; concerns that an economic downturn could reduce demand for the company&#39;s services. Forward-looking investors, consequently, have the opportunity to grab shares of UPS on the cheap. The stock is currently trading at just under 11 times operating cash flow, representing a discount to its five-year average multiple of 14.</p><p>Averaging a payout ratio of 68% over the past five years, UPS is taking a relatively conservative approach to rewarding shareholders. More than that, though, a quick look at the company&#39;s impressive free cash flow generation shows that the cash allotted for shareholders isn&#39;t jeopardizing the company&#39;s financial health.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb07f55bc87f3073b400329d8b73f3c5\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>UPS Total Dividends Paid (Annual) data by YCharts.</p><p>Despite inflationary pressure and other headwinds, UPS still foresees ample free cash flow in 2022 -- about $9 billion.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Down 22% to 30%, 3 Warren Buffett Dividend Stocks to Buy Right Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDown 22% to 30%, 3 Warren Buffett Dividend Stocks to Buy Right Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-19 11:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/01/18/3-warren-buffett-dividend-stocks-to-buy-2023/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway trounced the S&P 500 by more than a 22 percentage-point margin in 2022 -- marking Berkshire's best performance relative to the market since 2007.Luckily for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/01/18/3-warren-buffett-dividend-stocks-to-buy-2023/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","UPS":"联合包裹","CE":"塞拉尼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/01/18/3-warren-buffett-dividend-stocks-to-buy-2023/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2304398276","content_text":"Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway trounced the S&P 500 by more than a 22 percentage-point margin in 2022 -- marking Berkshire's best performance relative to the market since 2007.Luckily for investors, the contents of Berkshire's equity portfolio are public information. But that doesn't mean that you should copy Buffett's holdings exactly.Today, Apple, Celanese, and United Parcel Service are three Buffett dividend stocks that stand out more than the rest of the pack. Here's why.Apple stock is a great valueDaniel Foelber (Apple): Even after falling more than 25% from its all-time high, Apple remains Berkshire Hathaway's largest holding -- by far. It makes up 37% of Berkshire's public equity holdings. But Berkshire didn't buy the position all at once. In fact, it has been adding to the position regularly since 2016.That year, Apple resembled a classic value stock with a powerful brand and a bargain-bin price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of less than 12. Today, Apple is much more expensive than it used to be -- with a P/E of around 22. But it trades at only a slight premium to the S&P 500's multiple of 19. And there's every reason to believe Apple deserves a premium valuation now more than ever.AAPL PE Ratio data by YChartsApple's bread and butter is still iPhone and Mac sales. But it has successfully expanded the depth and breadth of its product and services offering to create an integrated ecosystem and recurring revenue streams. So far, Apple has mostly stuck to consumer electronics. But the rise of Apple Pay, Apple Card, and Apple Music adds another layer of stickiness for Apple customers.Perhaps the most impressive quality of Apple is its operating margin and free cash flow (FCF) yield. The company sports an operating margin of more than 30%, meaning it pockets 30 cents on the dollar in operating income. That is borderline unheard of in the consumer electronics industry. And it's a testament to Apple's ability to sell a growing list of premium-priced products and services to its loyal customer base.FCF yield is a great way to determine how much extra cash a company has at its disposal for dividends, buybacks, and other use cases. Apple's FCF yield of 5.1% means the company could theoretically pay a 5.1% dividend yield entirely with FCF, or buy back 5.1% of its own stock per year with cash. That's a big advantage, because it allows Apple to either use that cash to reinvest in the business or step in and buy its own stock if it is depressed.All told, a 22 P/E ratio when the S&P 500's P/E ratio is 19 seems like a great deal given how powerful Apple's fundamentals are.Investing like Warren Buffett requires patienceLee Samaha (Celanese): The chemical and specialty materials company is going through a difficult period. That includes a cyclical slowdown in the global economy, notably in Europe where the December S&P Purchasing Managers' Index showed chemicals output and new orders declining sharply.Given the cyclical exposure of Celanese's polymers and materials -- which are used across the economy, from automotives to industrial and consumer products, and electronics -- its sales are likely to come under pressure, not least from declining polymer prices. Meanwhile, the company will be busy integrating its $11 billion purchase of the majority of DuPont's former mobility and materials segment,  a business that's underperforming Celanese's management expectations.I've addressed the near-term negatives first to illustrate why the stock trades at just seven times 2022 earnings expectations and just over eight times 2023 earnings. However, if you can tolerate the potential for near-term lousy news and focus on the long-term picture, the stock, which has declined nearly 37% over the past year, is a good option.Plus, the acquisition will add geographic reach to its engineered materials segment and expand Celanese's leadership in new categories, while management is aiming for $500 million in run-rate synergies -- around 4.1% of estimated 2023 revenue -- within four years of the closing of the deal.It all adds up to a company trading at a valuation cheap enough to offset near-term risk but with good long-term opportunities to improve underlying return on assets --a typical Buffett-like investment.Big Brown can deliver big passive incomeScott Levine (UPS): It may be one of the smallest positions in Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio, currently worth about $10 million, but that shouldn't preclude investors who want the reassurance of Buffett-approved dividend payers from picking up shares of UPS and its forward dividend yield of 3.4%.While there are numerous companies that have been paying a dividend to shareholders longer than the 23 years that UPS has, it's important to recognize that UPS only held its initial public offering in 1999. In other words, since its debut on the public markets, UPS has rewarded shareholders with a dividend -- one that's never been reduced from one year to the next.Over the past year, shares of UPS have dropped about 12%, representing a decline consistent with the S&P 500's fall of about 14%.Inauspicious as it may seem, the stock's fall doesn't reflect something inherently wrong with the company's performance. Instead, the stock's poor performance stems from investors' concerns that an economic downturn could reduce demand for the company's services. Forward-looking investors, consequently, have the opportunity to grab shares of UPS on the cheap. The stock is currently trading at just under 11 times operating cash flow, representing a discount to its five-year average multiple of 14.Averaging a payout ratio of 68% over the past five years, UPS is taking a relatively conservative approach to rewarding shareholders. More than that, though, a quick look at the company's impressive free cash flow generation shows that the cash allotted for shareholders isn't jeopardizing the company's financial health.UPS Total Dividends Paid (Annual) data by YCharts.Despite inflationary pressure and other headwinds, UPS still foresees ample free cash flow in 2022 -- about $9 billion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":37,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961427104,"gmtCreate":1669029538809,"gmtModify":1676538141789,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lower inflation? But things remain expensive as f even if inflation goes to 0% growth","listText":"Lower inflation? But things remain expensive as f even if inflation goes to 0% growth","text":"Lower inflation? But things remain expensive as f even if inflation goes to 0% growth","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961427104","repostId":"2284891180","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2284891180","pubTimestamp":1669017887,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2284891180?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-21 16:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPX: A Rallying Stock Market Is Bearish","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2284891180","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryStocks rallied viciously due to lower inflation data.I believe this bear market rally has som","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Stocks rallied viciously due to lower inflation data.</li><li>I believe this bear market rally has some more room to go, but I wouldn’t bet on it.</li><li>The root cause of falling inflation isn’t bullish for stocks.</li><li>In 2023, bad news will be bad news again, and a rallying stock market is bearish.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41fe2c4feaba1c36352e0d9664de24f3\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>blewisphotography/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><h2>“Hopium” is back again</h2><p>It doesn’t take much for investors to be optimistic about the markets again. Last week the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) rallied ~6%, and the Nasdaq ~8% after the inflation print came in lower than expected at 7.7% YoY or 0.4% MoM. The PPI data should come in lower too, reflecting the symptoms of a slowing economy and weakening consumer spending.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8830de04b6cb31c02f372c43e213054\" tg-width=\"1275\" tg-height=\"700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>CPI &amp; PPI YoY Percentage Change (Author Excel with Data from fred.stlouisfed.org)</span></p><p>So far, so unsurprising – not for the market, though. The S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq made the bulk of their gains last week right after the CPI report was published. Markets played the pivot book: The Dollar (DXY) withdrew sharply as Yields collapsed, and assets appreciated. The market priced in a higher probability of relative monetary easing of the Federal Reserve due to lower-than-expected inflation. Naturally, the most interest-rate sensitive assets appreciated the most, hence the outperformance of the Nasdaq. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) rose over 10% on that day. Although that gain has to be taken with a caveat because the CPI print followed the day that FTX went bankrupt and Crypto assets collapsed. Therefore, a rebound seemed natural.</p><p>On Thursday, the Nasdaq (NDX) had its best trading day since April 2020. I don’t believe a new bull market has started, however. Huge upswings and short squeezes are characteristic of bear market rallies. The underlying macroeconomic circumstances have not changed enough to put an end to this bear market. I believe this rally is one of the bigger ones, like the bear market rally starting in June 2022. I believe the market can feed off of big short exposure and the narrative that inflation has finally peaked.</p><p>I also believe inflation has peaked, as I cannot imagine that the economy will be able to healthily operate with the immense burden of the sharply risen cost of capital. The previously raised interest rates start to feed into the economy gradually. As Jerome Powell always reminds us: “Monetary Policy works with long and variable lags.” That counts for monetary easing and monetary tightening. Additionally, the basis effect should help keep the YoY inflation rate comparatively low.</p><p>The financial stress that the economy will have to endure during the first half of 2023 seems too high to be bullish at the current valuation level. While analysts have lowered their expectations for 2023 earnings, they are still around ~$220 for the S&amp;P 500 (0% growth), which currently reflects a P/E FWD of 18x. Given the macroeconomic and geopolitical circumstances I believe that is still way too high.</p><p>In the event of a recession, which is my base case, earnings should fall and not only stay flat for 2023. Assuming the earnings multiple for the S&amp;P 500 goes back to its mean of 16x and earnings depreciate by 10% in 2023 (basically guaranteed if a real recession hits), the fair value of the S&amp;P should be around 3,200 points. Of course, the P/E FWD ratio estimate is only for constructing a framework about where the fair value<i>should</i> be. There are many more factors at play.</p><p>After all, the alternative to equities is an investment in basically risk-free US government bonds, which now have moved into the positive real-rate territory across the yield curve. During the last 20 years, expansive monetary policy has moved even the most risk-averse investors into the equity space. Now that risk-free rates have risen, these risk-averse players are attracted by the risk-free yield, especially when compared to equity premiums. This is why I believe that the current drawdown in equities only accounts for the yield rise and not for earnings depreciation. I make the speculation of largely not being invested while waiting until the other shoe drops, most likely in H1/2023.</p><h2>Searching for historical bottoms</h2><p>Usually, the market is forward-looking and doesn’t reflect the economy. However, historically trying to front-run the pivot didn’t work:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8447327903f174e95c5886662c788efe\" tg-width=\"1278\" tg-height=\"700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Fed Funds &amp; SP500 (Excel from Author using data from fred.stlouisfed.org)</span></p><p>That’s because of the circumstances of the previous pivot points.</p><p>When the Federal Reserve raised rates during the 2000’s it was because the economy was overheating, and the labor market was tight. While rates were rising, the stock market appreciated because of strong fundamentals (rising GDP). After some time, the monetary tightening worked itself into the economy, and the market fundamentals started to worsen. After a period of plateauing rates, the stock market tumbled, and the Federal Reserve was quick to cut rates. While the Federal Reserve was cutting rates the stock market fell even further. Historically, the bottom of the stock market was in only<i>after</i> the Federal Reserve had already cut rates significantly and the liquidity cycle started to move upwards again.</p><p>In 2022, however, we have a different situation. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy, and the stock market depreciated <i>because of it</i>. That fundamental difference exists because of inflation.</p><p>During the last 40 years, the overarching trend of inflation was down. Especially in the last 20 years, global Central Banks struggled to create inflation with loose monetary policy. If the economy and the financial markets start to struggle while there is no concern about material inflation or even fear of deflation, then the playbook of Central Banks becomes very easy: stimulate the economy to raise inflation and decrease unemployment.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93089c2daa2b2a46fe64342b4a9c84db\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"659\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Taylor-Rule (Author)</span></p><p>According to the Taylor Rule, the Federal Reserve had to lower interest rates (1-h) so often in the past because inflation was below the long-term inflation rate goal,<i>and</i> (1-g) GDP was also below the long-term production potential. Both parts of the formula demanded monetary easing.</p><p>During 2020-2022 the macroeconomic circumstances changed 180 degrees. Because of several shortages, and most importantly massive fiscal stimulus, which was fully financed by expansive monetary policy, demand exploded while goods were scarce. After inflation came in hot quarter after quarter, the Federal Reserve had to raise rates into a falling stock market for the first time in 20+ years.</p><p>Because of the traditionally backward-looking indicators of Central Banks (i.e. unemployment), the economy appeared red hot while inflation was clearly above the 2% target. These two macroeconomic circumstances basically guaranteed monetary tightening. A falling stock market is appreciated by the Federal Reserve because it resembles tightening financial conditions. Tightening financial conditions should decrease inflation and raise unemployment – the goals of the central bank policy during times like these.</p><h2>Trying to time the pivot?</h2><p>We are in a different situation now, though. Inflation is still way above the 2% target. But the slowdown of the global economy is getting more and more clear by the day. And many of the bubbles fueled by monetary excesses [i.e. Meme-Tech-stocks like Peleton (PTON), Palantir (PLTR), Nikola (NKLA), or Crypto (BTC) / (ETH)] have deflated 80-90% from their highs.</p><p>Many investors ask themselves now: If inflation has peaked and the economy is materially slowing down, why not buy the dip in risk assets? Won’t the Fed Put be back after inflation comes down MoM?</p><p>That sounds like an attractive argument. Hence, I believe the current rally could sustain for the remainder of 2022. There are finally positive news for the stock market to rally. Ultimately, however, I believe the current stock price action is nothing more than a rather violent bear market rally because of the following reasons:</p><h3>1. The Federal Reserve wants to make sure that inflation is dealt with</h3><p>During the speculation mania that followed the March 2020 Covid crash, any doubt about valuation levels was quickly dismissed with the “don’t fight the Fed” mantra. And speculators were right back then. If the liquidity cycle makes a big upswing, you don’t want to be caught off guard shorting stocks because of their stretched valuations. Tesla (TSLA) perma bears painfully had to learn that. But the same counts for when the liquidity cycle is in a downturn and investors are recklessly holding on to their overvalued tech stocks. Fighting the Fed in 2022 means staying invested in long-duration, high-growth, high-valuation equities. Just last week, Powell reiterated the Federal Reserve’s stance to tighten policy until something breaks. Powell seemed confident that it would be easier to put the economy into recession and then rescue it after they overtighten financial conditions. After all, nothing kills inflation like a recession.</p><h3>2. Unemployment is too low</h3><p>Without the labor market breaking and unemployment sharply rising, there is no reason for global Central Banks to meaningfully change the direction of their policy to an accommodative level. During the FOMC meeting, Powell made it clear that rates will likely stay higher for longer than the market currently expects. The Federal Reserve has given up on its attempt of engineering a “softish landing”. Inflation becoming entrenched in the economy is their worst fear, and with the low levels of unemployment, the Central Bank doesn’t have to balance its efforts to slow down inflation. Even after the rate hikes are over, quantitative tightening will worsen financial conditions and be a great hurdle for the stock market.</p><p>Some layoffs have already started. To my belief, tech companies will be able to raise productivity by removing some unnecessary workforce from recent years, where revenue growth was highly monetarily valued, but profitability wasn’t. Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), and Twitter (TWTR) have already started. Alphabet (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) are likely to follow. If high-paid workers lose their steady income stream, they are likely to sell off some of their accumulated assets in order to have a safety cushion to rely upon. It would be typical that this selling coincides with retail capitulation and a final rise in volatility, which usually marks the low of the bear market. I don’t believe we’re at the end yet, but I don’t want to dismiss the rather orderly decline of stock prices in 2022.</p><h3>3. Bad news will be bad news again</h3><p>I think 2023 will be about the labor market and the effects of higher rates for the housing market and less about the Federal Reserve monetary policy. After all, the bulk of the rate hikes are done, and now it is about how long they can stay this elevated. That’s not as interesting for the stock market as hiking 50-75 basis points per month, at least in terms of forward pricing. As seen last week, the current market is still heavily focused on inflation and the resulting change of the Federal Reserve policy. That’s why bad news about an economic slowdown were bullish. Inflation expectations would decrease, and as a function of that, the Federal Reserve was expected to be less tight.</p><p>I don’t expect the Federal Reserve to immediately cut rates if the labor market eases. Because of that consistency and resilience to lower rates, I think that bad news will be bad news again in 2023. The housing market should come under pressure too, as more and more mortgages have to be refinanced. As of now, the illiquidity of the housing market makes it seem somewhat resilient. But I don’t believe that resiliency will hold in 2023 if rates stay elevated.</p><p>Hiking interest rates for fewer percentage points is less bearish but still not bullish, given how elevated rates already are. The liquidity cycle is still in a downturn, albeit less quickly, and Quantitative Tightening still continues linearly. Until now, much of the Quantitative Tightening got neutralized by a rundown of the US Treasury General account:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ecc783a2e50ff641e9c70d6bfcb9101\" tg-width=\"1169\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>M2 &amp; US Treasury General Account (fred.stlouisfed.org)</span></p><p>In 2023, the softening impact of decreasing the treasury account in line with Quantitative Easing will still be possible for some time, but not forever. The likelihood of excessive fiscal policy stimulating the economy has decreased too, given the results of the US midterm elections.</p><h3>4. A stock-market rally is bearish</h3><p>Something has to break for the Fed to pivot. If the market reaches previous highs, it only increases the probability that Central banks tighten monetary policy even further. That’s because financial conditions usually ease during stock market rallies. Bond yields usually fall because the market expects accommodative monetary policy, which makes it possible for the Federal Reserve to conduct more Quantitative Tightening because investors buy them, trying to front-run a pivot. To me that seems self-defeating.</p><h2>Summary</h2><p>I believe that in 2023, bad news will be bad news again. Plunging earnings and layoffs will ultimately be bearish for the stock market. The Federal Reserve can only pivot if something breaks. The process of “breaking” usually isn’t bullish for the stock market. Bear markets often end with capitulation, but long-only ETF DCA retail still makes their monthly investments in the S&amp;P 500. Unemployment has to rise to turn these inflows into outflows. Bad news will be bad news, and a rallying stock market will be bearish.</p><p><i>This article is written by Nikolai Galozi for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPX: A Rallying Stock Market Is Bearish</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPX: A Rallying Stock Market Is Bearish\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-21 16:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559201-spx-a-rallying-stock-market-is-bearish><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryStocks rallied viciously due to lower inflation data.I believe this bear market rally has some more room to go, but I wouldn’t bet on it.The root cause of falling inflation isn’t bullish for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559201-spx-a-rallying-stock-market-is-bearish\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559201-spx-a-rallying-stock-market-is-bearish","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2284891180","content_text":"SummaryStocks rallied viciously due to lower inflation data.I believe this bear market rally has some more room to go, but I wouldn’t bet on it.The root cause of falling inflation isn’t bullish for stocks.In 2023, bad news will be bad news again, and a rallying stock market is bearish.blewisphotography/iStock via Getty Images“Hopium” is back againIt doesn’t take much for investors to be optimistic about the markets again. Last week the S&P 500 (SPX) rallied ~6%, and the Nasdaq ~8% after the inflation print came in lower than expected at 7.7% YoY or 0.4% MoM. The PPI data should come in lower too, reflecting the symptoms of a slowing economy and weakening consumer spending.CPI & PPI YoY Percentage Change (Author Excel with Data from fred.stlouisfed.org)So far, so unsurprising – not for the market, though. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq made the bulk of their gains last week right after the CPI report was published. Markets played the pivot book: The Dollar (DXY) withdrew sharply as Yields collapsed, and assets appreciated. The market priced in a higher probability of relative monetary easing of the Federal Reserve due to lower-than-expected inflation. Naturally, the most interest-rate sensitive assets appreciated the most, hence the outperformance of the Nasdaq. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) rose over 10% on that day. Although that gain has to be taken with a caveat because the CPI print followed the day that FTX went bankrupt and Crypto assets collapsed. Therefore, a rebound seemed natural.On Thursday, the Nasdaq (NDX) had its best trading day since April 2020. I don’t believe a new bull market has started, however. Huge upswings and short squeezes are characteristic of bear market rallies. The underlying macroeconomic circumstances have not changed enough to put an end to this bear market. I believe this rally is one of the bigger ones, like the bear market rally starting in June 2022. I believe the market can feed off of big short exposure and the narrative that inflation has finally peaked.I also believe inflation has peaked, as I cannot imagine that the economy will be able to healthily operate with the immense burden of the sharply risen cost of capital. The previously raised interest rates start to feed into the economy gradually. As Jerome Powell always reminds us: “Monetary Policy works with long and variable lags.” That counts for monetary easing and monetary tightening. Additionally, the basis effect should help keep the YoY inflation rate comparatively low.The financial stress that the economy will have to endure during the first half of 2023 seems too high to be bullish at the current valuation level. While analysts have lowered their expectations for 2023 earnings, they are still around ~$220 for the S&P 500 (0% growth), which currently reflects a P/E FWD of 18x. Given the macroeconomic and geopolitical circumstances I believe that is still way too high.In the event of a recession, which is my base case, earnings should fall and not only stay flat for 2023. Assuming the earnings multiple for the S&P 500 goes back to its mean of 16x and earnings depreciate by 10% in 2023 (basically guaranteed if a real recession hits), the fair value of the S&P should be around 3,200 points. Of course, the P/E FWD ratio estimate is only for constructing a framework about where the fair valueshould be. There are many more factors at play.After all, the alternative to equities is an investment in basically risk-free US government bonds, which now have moved into the positive real-rate territory across the yield curve. During the last 20 years, expansive monetary policy has moved even the most risk-averse investors into the equity space. Now that risk-free rates have risen, these risk-averse players are attracted by the risk-free yield, especially when compared to equity premiums. This is why I believe that the current drawdown in equities only accounts for the yield rise and not for earnings depreciation. I make the speculation of largely not being invested while waiting until the other shoe drops, most likely in H1/2023.Searching for historical bottomsUsually, the market is forward-looking and doesn’t reflect the economy. However, historically trying to front-run the pivot didn’t work:Fed Funds & SP500 (Excel from Author using data from fred.stlouisfed.org)That’s because of the circumstances of the previous pivot points.When the Federal Reserve raised rates during the 2000’s it was because the economy was overheating, and the labor market was tight. While rates were rising, the stock market appreciated because of strong fundamentals (rising GDP). After some time, the monetary tightening worked itself into the economy, and the market fundamentals started to worsen. After a period of plateauing rates, the stock market tumbled, and the Federal Reserve was quick to cut rates. While the Federal Reserve was cutting rates the stock market fell even further. Historically, the bottom of the stock market was in onlyafter the Federal Reserve had already cut rates significantly and the liquidity cycle started to move upwards again.In 2022, however, we have a different situation. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy, and the stock market depreciated because of it. That fundamental difference exists because of inflation.During the last 40 years, the overarching trend of inflation was down. Especially in the last 20 years, global Central Banks struggled to create inflation with loose monetary policy. If the economy and the financial markets start to struggle while there is no concern about material inflation or even fear of deflation, then the playbook of Central Banks becomes very easy: stimulate the economy to raise inflation and decrease unemployment.Taylor-Rule (Author)According to the Taylor Rule, the Federal Reserve had to lower interest rates (1-h) so often in the past because inflation was below the long-term inflation rate goal,and (1-g) GDP was also below the long-term production potential. Both parts of the formula demanded monetary easing.During 2020-2022 the macroeconomic circumstances changed 180 degrees. Because of several shortages, and most importantly massive fiscal stimulus, which was fully financed by expansive monetary policy, demand exploded while goods were scarce. After inflation came in hot quarter after quarter, the Federal Reserve had to raise rates into a falling stock market for the first time in 20+ years.Because of the traditionally backward-looking indicators of Central Banks (i.e. unemployment), the economy appeared red hot while inflation was clearly above the 2% target. These two macroeconomic circumstances basically guaranteed monetary tightening. A falling stock market is appreciated by the Federal Reserve because it resembles tightening financial conditions. Tightening financial conditions should decrease inflation and raise unemployment – the goals of the central bank policy during times like these.Trying to time the pivot?We are in a different situation now, though. Inflation is still way above the 2% target. But the slowdown of the global economy is getting more and more clear by the day. And many of the bubbles fueled by monetary excesses [i.e. Meme-Tech-stocks like Peleton (PTON), Palantir (PLTR), Nikola (NKLA), or Crypto (BTC) / (ETH)] have deflated 80-90% from their highs.Many investors ask themselves now: If inflation has peaked and the economy is materially slowing down, why not buy the dip in risk assets? Won’t the Fed Put be back after inflation comes down MoM?That sounds like an attractive argument. Hence, I believe the current rally could sustain for the remainder of 2022. There are finally positive news for the stock market to rally. Ultimately, however, I believe the current stock price action is nothing more than a rather violent bear market rally because of the following reasons:1. The Federal Reserve wants to make sure that inflation is dealt withDuring the speculation mania that followed the March 2020 Covid crash, any doubt about valuation levels was quickly dismissed with the “don’t fight the Fed” mantra. And speculators were right back then. If the liquidity cycle makes a big upswing, you don’t want to be caught off guard shorting stocks because of their stretched valuations. Tesla (TSLA) perma bears painfully had to learn that. But the same counts for when the liquidity cycle is in a downturn and investors are recklessly holding on to their overvalued tech stocks. Fighting the Fed in 2022 means staying invested in long-duration, high-growth, high-valuation equities. Just last week, Powell reiterated the Federal Reserve’s stance to tighten policy until something breaks. Powell seemed confident that it would be easier to put the economy into recession and then rescue it after they overtighten financial conditions. After all, nothing kills inflation like a recession.2. Unemployment is too lowWithout the labor market breaking and unemployment sharply rising, there is no reason for global Central Banks to meaningfully change the direction of their policy to an accommodative level. During the FOMC meeting, Powell made it clear that rates will likely stay higher for longer than the market currently expects. The Federal Reserve has given up on its attempt of engineering a “softish landing”. Inflation becoming entrenched in the economy is their worst fear, and with the low levels of unemployment, the Central Bank doesn’t have to balance its efforts to slow down inflation. Even after the rate hikes are over, quantitative tightening will worsen financial conditions and be a great hurdle for the stock market.Some layoffs have already started. To my belief, tech companies will be able to raise productivity by removing some unnecessary workforce from recent years, where revenue growth was highly monetarily valued, but profitability wasn’t. Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), and Twitter (TWTR) have already started. Alphabet (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) are likely to follow. If high-paid workers lose their steady income stream, they are likely to sell off some of their accumulated assets in order to have a safety cushion to rely upon. It would be typical that this selling coincides with retail capitulation and a final rise in volatility, which usually marks the low of the bear market. I don’t believe we’re at the end yet, but I don’t want to dismiss the rather orderly decline of stock prices in 2022.3. Bad news will be bad news againI think 2023 will be about the labor market and the effects of higher rates for the housing market and less about the Federal Reserve monetary policy. After all, the bulk of the rate hikes are done, and now it is about how long they can stay this elevated. That’s not as interesting for the stock market as hiking 50-75 basis points per month, at least in terms of forward pricing. As seen last week, the current market is still heavily focused on inflation and the resulting change of the Federal Reserve policy. That’s why bad news about an economic slowdown were bullish. Inflation expectations would decrease, and as a function of that, the Federal Reserve was expected to be less tight.I don’t expect the Federal Reserve to immediately cut rates if the labor market eases. Because of that consistency and resilience to lower rates, I think that bad news will be bad news again in 2023. The housing market should come under pressure too, as more and more mortgages have to be refinanced. As of now, the illiquidity of the housing market makes it seem somewhat resilient. But I don’t believe that resiliency will hold in 2023 if rates stay elevated.Hiking interest rates for fewer percentage points is less bearish but still not bullish, given how elevated rates already are. The liquidity cycle is still in a downturn, albeit less quickly, and Quantitative Tightening still continues linearly. Until now, much of the Quantitative Tightening got neutralized by a rundown of the US Treasury General account:M2 & US Treasury General Account (fred.stlouisfed.org)In 2023, the softening impact of decreasing the treasury account in line with Quantitative Easing will still be possible for some time, but not forever. The likelihood of excessive fiscal policy stimulating the economy has decreased too, given the results of the US midterm elections.4. A stock-market rally is bearishSomething has to break for the Fed to pivot. If the market reaches previous highs, it only increases the probability that Central banks tighten monetary policy even further. That’s because financial conditions usually ease during stock market rallies. Bond yields usually fall because the market expects accommodative monetary policy, which makes it possible for the Federal Reserve to conduct more Quantitative Tightening because investors buy them, trying to front-run a pivot. To me that seems self-defeating.SummaryI believe that in 2023, bad news will be bad news again. Plunging earnings and layoffs will ultimately be bearish for the stock market. The Federal Reserve can only pivot if something breaks. The process of “breaking” usually isn’t bullish for the stock market. Bear markets often end with capitulation, but long-only ETF DCA retail still makes their monthly investments in the S&P 500. Unemployment has to rise to turn these inflows into outflows. Bad news will be bad news, and a rallying stock market will be bearish.This article is written by Nikolai Galozi for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}