kckckckckkck personal page - To The Moon

kckckckckkck

kckckckckkck

No personal profile

12Follow

1Followers

1Topic

0Badge

02-08

Such bullish sentiments typically means local top is near. Just joking dont take it too seriously

Palantir: This Is Just The Beginning

01-24

For this amount, i would go for US growth stocks. Wont touch dividend stocks until a higher amount as the dividends would be low.

4 Reliable Dividend Stocks I Will Buy if I Had S$40,000

2023-12-20

Alrdy crashing now. Too little too late

Singapore Raises Rental Occupancy Cap to Meet High Demand

2023-11-14

Oh crap time to sell

Tesla Stock: Consider Buying The Dip

2023-10-05

Good day

2023-09-11

Nice day

2023-07-11

[Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]

CPI Preview: Disinflation Is Finished - Inflation To Start Rising Again

2023-04-28

Flow back to HK.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-04-11

Buy high Sell low

It's Almost Time To Load Up On Tesla

2023-03-29

The aim of tesla is

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-02-02

Ape together strong

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-11-07

If they say buy quickly sell

Tesla Bears Could Get Hammered Here

2022-03-01

Not simple

Tesla Stock Bounces Higher: Is The EV Maker Revving For A Breakout?

2022-02-01

Happy CNY

2021-09-06

Definitely. A lot of demand will come in.

Who needs a bitcoin ETF, anyway? It may hold little value for investors now—Here’s why.

2021-08-18

90% of traders lose 90% of the time. Just hodl n wait

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-08-04

HODL

3 Reasons Tesla Stock Is Currently Overvalued

2021-07-29

donkey Kong

@Fartyclown:$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Every time the earning report comes out it falls.If only Elon can do push his own company stocks more than bitcoin.

2021-06-24

To the moooooon

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":3560390573137204,"uuid":"3560390573137204","gmtCreate":1597297103703,"gmtModify":1690640526875,"name":"kckckckckkck","pinyin":"kckckckckkck","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":1,"headSize":12,"tweetSize":26,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":2,"name":"无畏虎","nameTw":"無畏虎","represent":"初生牛犊","factor":"发布3条非转发主帖,1条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":1,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"93.41%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.05.11","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-2","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Master Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 100","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.02.02","exceedPercentage":"80.98%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"93.88%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":271680688353560,"gmtCreate":1707366088561,"gmtModify":1707366093270,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Such bullish sentiments typically means local top is near. Just joking dont take it too seriously","listText":"Such bullish sentiments typically means local top is near. Just joking dont take it too seriously","text":"Such bullish sentiments typically means local top is near. Just joking dont take it too seriously","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/271680688353560","repostId":"2409204850","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2409204850","pubTimestamp":1707359435,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2409204850?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-02-08 10:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: This Is Just The Beginning","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2409204850","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Palantir had a strong end to FY23, surpassing the Rule of 40 at 54% for q4'23 and 44% for FY23.Gartner forecasts 13.8% y/y growth in IT spend for 2024 with a primary focus in cost-reducing projects. P","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Palantir had a strong end to FY23, surpassing the Rule of 40 at 54% for q4&#39;23 and 44% for FY23.</p></li><li><p>Gartner forecasts 13.8% y/y growth in IT spend for 2024 with a primary focus in cost-reducing projects. Palantir&#39;s products may be that solution.</p></li><li><p>Palantir&#39;s AI capabilities and AIP bootcamps are driving sales and attracting new customers, with high-value deals expected to continue.</p></li></ul><p>Writing that Palantir had an extraordinary end to FY23 would be an understatement. Investor sentiment shifted strongly since I wrote my initial bullish investment thesis back on December 16, 2023. The recent earnings announcement caused the stock to jump over 40% in the next two trading days. I’ll admit, I was beginning to think my thesis was drastically off for over the course of the next month and a half as the shares traded down -12% from publication to Q4’23 earnings. With this new growth trajectory and accelerated interest in AI at the corporate level, I am maintaining my BUY recommendation and increasing my forecast and price target to $30.70/share based on 22.89x my eFY25 sales forecast.</p><h3 id=\"id_563621767\">Operations</h3><p>Palantir finished FY23 on a high note, with commercial customers growing by 55% y/y in Q4’23 and 12% sequentially. This translated to a 70% increase in commercial revenue for the quarter from the previous year. TCV booked $1.15b, $699mm of which derived from commercial customers, growing on a y/y basis by 192% and 156%, respectively. Palantir also experienced strong growth in both top line and margins, surpassing the Rule of 40 at 54% when using Q4’23 revenue growth and adjusted operating income.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c470cf80a57b5417f0d80692faeea9e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"83\"/></p><p>Corporate Reports</p><p>As discerned below, I believe management’s guidance may be coming in more conservative as AI takes shape.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dd95111cd55a53d5aafb021417d22a3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"67\"/></p><p>Corporate Reports</p><p>I believe one of the strengths that Palantir found in the last few quarters was within their AIP bootcamps. Rather than a sales call cycle, the firm is actively showcasing their AIP features in these masterclasses to show how effective their products are in the business environment. This has proven highly successful in not only cross-selling across their current customer base, but also expanding and attracting new customers. I believe that as Generative AI has been the topic of conversation for the last year and continues to be so, interest in Palantir’s AI-oriented offerings will accelerate and drive the sales conversion cycle. Though it may be far reaching to equate their over 500 AIP bootcamps to their 35% y/y increase in new customers, I believe that there may be some correlation between the two.</p><p>Palantir closed 103 deals valued at over $1mm in Q4’23, with 37 of those deals over $5mm, and 21 over $10mm. I anticipate these high-value deals to continue to flow to Palantir as the firm showcases their AI capabilities and allows their potential customers to fully grasp the capabilities in their one-on-one demonstration approach. Management came in very bold with their approach, citing:</p><blockquote><p>I go around the country now telling CEOs, CTOs, and really, whoever has $1 million to buy our product and transform their enterprise, take everything you&#39;ve done in AI since you started, put your best people on it, and we&#39;re going to show up at any time you want, and we&#39;re going to run your data at a bootcamp for 10 hours. And then, you compare your self-pleasuring to our operationally-relevant, commercially-valuable, critical-to-your-enterprise results. Our 10 hours, your 10 months. Any products you want, any vendor you want, any hyperscaler you want, you pick them, we&#39;ll show up.</p><p>Alex Karp, CEO, Palantir</p></blockquote><p>There also remains a huge opportunity in the public sector as management mentioned that the Army’s budget for their command and control software is only 0.015% of hardware and software spend.</p><blockquote><p>The principal reason is that the DoD is at the very beginning of a long-term allocation shift from hardware to software. For example, the Army is spending a mere 0.015% of its budget on command and control software in fiscal year &#39;24. But as we confront crisis and conflict in three theaters, this is changing. Growth is being driven by the incredible dynamism of the US commercial market, and US government will follow.</p><p>Shyam Sankar, CTO Palantir</p></blockquote><p>Though I wouldn’t bet the farm on an overnight success in government contracts, I do believe that this will be a slow grower for the firm and accumulate value over a long period of time. At the risk of overstepping my analyst duties, I do believe that if any of these global skirmishes were to escalate to further involve the US, DoD investments in Palantir’s capabilities may be pulled forward. As management had alluded to in the Q4’23 earnings call, China may further become a threat as their economic growth engine stalls.</p><p>One growth headwind that the firm faces, which I don’t believe to be as big of a challenge given the customer interest behind Palantir’s software, is that their salesforce is lagging behind their growth. Management spent a significant portion of the q4’23 earnings call discussing their recruitment process and that the firm is actively seeking to strengthen their headcount as the company’s profitability scales. Though this isn’t necessarily a bad problem to have, it can potentially create some challenges in customer relations and making sure each customer receives the appropriate attention to ensure retention and maximize cross-selling. Though I do not anticipate this to have a negative impact on the firm’s growth potential, I do anticipate that adding the additional headcount can reel in margins from their recent high. Taking management’s guidance for eFY24, Palantir’s adjusted operating margin is expected to taper from the Q4’23 high of 34% to 32% in eQ1’24 and in the range of 31-32% for eFY24, which remains well above the FY23 adjusted operating margin of 27%.</p><p>In building a case for Palantir’s growth, I believe looking at the AI-enabling chip companies like Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Intel (INTC) as a guide from a hardware perspective can discern some intel on how the software portion of AI will react. Though I do not anticipate this to be a 1-for-1 equation, I do believe that there is some relation in which hardware is only as useful as the software that’s running on these high-performance chips. Management anticipates 17% top-line growth for Q1’24, which I believe is a very modest estimate.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f54e5662f085a6c807275f56390f4e84\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"56\"/></p><p>Corporate Reports</p><p>As the firm grows and scales operations, I anticipate revenue growth to outpace any contractionary effects to margins as a result of scaling staff and infrastructure. I believe that Palantir has a huge opportunity and has only scratched the surface in scaling their AIP tool and I believe that as the firm continues to aggressively bring forward the product in their AIP bootcamps, I expect firms to latch onto its capabilities. Gartner forecasted 8% total IT spending growth with 13.8% growth in software alone for CY24. Their survey suggested that IT spend will primarily focus in cost-reducing technologies. As Palantir’s management had alluded to in their Q4’23 earnings call, AIP does just that.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/196e375f41a559f167f522746535f4ee\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"448\"/></p><p>Gartner</p><p>I anticipate a much higher concentration in IT spend being allocated to AI-enabling technologies. Contrary to the company <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a> (SNOW) that I covered on January 30, 2024, Palantir’s software provides actionable capabilities for creating operational efficiencies. Snowflake, on the other hand, provides the database and a set of data analytic tools to be hosted in a hyperscaler environment for LLM analysis. Each software package brings forth its own merits; however, Palantir’s software package is more of an enabler vs. just a toolbox.</p><h3 id=\"id_94300243\">Valuation &amp; Shareholder Value</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/374a64f498a5414f77a88312ecd7553e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"83\"/></p><p>Corporate Reports</p><p>PLTR currently trades at 23.17x FY23 sales, a slight premium to the firm’s competitors. Given my expectations for Palantir’s growth trajectory into eFY24 and eFY25, I anticipate significant upside for PLTR shares. Forecasting out to eFY25, I provide PLTR shares a BUY recommendation with a price target of $30.70/share at 22.89x eFY25 sales.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d84c744f6e11a41dbc0900b1cd076bc5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\"/></p><p>Corporate Reports</p><p>Reviewing my previous technical chart, PLTR shares moved exactly as expected. Looking ahead to my $30.70/share price target, I anticipate a continued near-term run-up before a slight pullback to $21.59/share before moving up to my ultimate target. I believe that any pullback in shares will be a great buying opportunity as I anticipate this stock to appreciate by 40%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56fb3b82155967ed13b2743e0e6d106b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\"/></p><p>TradingView</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: This Is Just The Beginning</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: This Is Just The Beginning\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-08 10:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4668303-palantir-this-is-just-the-beginning><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Palantir had a strong end to FY23, surpassing the Rule of 40 at 54% for q4'23 and 44% for FY23.Gartner forecasts 13.8% y/y growth in IT spend for 2024 with a primary focus in cost-reducing projects. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4668303-palantir-this-is-just-the-beginning\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","BK4097":"系统软件","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU0957791311.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","BK4515":"5G概念","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4567":"ESG概念","LU2458330169.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU2458330243.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A-H1\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","BK4566":"资本集团","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4116":"互联网服务与基础架构","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","BK4141":"半导体产品","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4668303-palantir-this-is-just-the-beginning","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2409204850","content_text":"Palantir had a strong end to FY23, surpassing the Rule of 40 at 54% for q4'23 and 44% for FY23.Gartner forecasts 13.8% y/y growth in IT spend for 2024 with a primary focus in cost-reducing projects. Palantir's products may be that solution.Palantir's AI capabilities and AIP bootcamps are driving sales and attracting new customers, with high-value deals expected to continue.Writing that Palantir had an extraordinary end to FY23 would be an understatement. Investor sentiment shifted strongly since I wrote my initial bullish investment thesis back on December 16, 2023. The recent earnings announcement caused the stock to jump over 40% in the next two trading days. I’ll admit, I was beginning to think my thesis was drastically off for over the course of the next month and a half as the shares traded down -12% from publication to Q4’23 earnings. With this new growth trajectory and accelerated interest in AI at the corporate level, I am maintaining my BUY recommendation and increasing my forecast and price target to $30.70/share based on 22.89x my eFY25 sales forecast.OperationsPalantir finished FY23 on a high note, with commercial customers growing by 55% y/y in Q4’23 and 12% sequentially. This translated to a 70% increase in commercial revenue for the quarter from the previous year. TCV booked $1.15b, $699mm of which derived from commercial customers, growing on a y/y basis by 192% and 156%, respectively. Palantir also experienced strong growth in both top line and margins, surpassing the Rule of 40 at 54% when using Q4’23 revenue growth and adjusted operating income.Corporate ReportsAs discerned below, I believe management’s guidance may be coming in more conservative as AI takes shape.Corporate ReportsI believe one of the strengths that Palantir found in the last few quarters was within their AIP bootcamps. Rather than a sales call cycle, the firm is actively showcasing their AIP features in these masterclasses to show how effective their products are in the business environment. This has proven highly successful in not only cross-selling across their current customer base, but also expanding and attracting new customers. I believe that as Generative AI has been the topic of conversation for the last year and continues to be so, interest in Palantir’s AI-oriented offerings will accelerate and drive the sales conversion cycle. Though it may be far reaching to equate their over 500 AIP bootcamps to their 35% y/y increase in new customers, I believe that there may be some correlation between the two.Palantir closed 103 deals valued at over $1mm in Q4’23, with 37 of those deals over $5mm, and 21 over $10mm. I anticipate these high-value deals to continue to flow to Palantir as the firm showcases their AI capabilities and allows their potential customers to fully grasp the capabilities in their one-on-one demonstration approach. Management came in very bold with their approach, citing:I go around the country now telling CEOs, CTOs, and really, whoever has $1 million to buy our product and transform their enterprise, take everything you've done in AI since you started, put your best people on it, and we're going to show up at any time you want, and we're going to run your data at a bootcamp for 10 hours. And then, you compare your self-pleasuring to our operationally-relevant, commercially-valuable, critical-to-your-enterprise results. Our 10 hours, your 10 months. Any products you want, any vendor you want, any hyperscaler you want, you pick them, we'll show up.Alex Karp, CEO, PalantirThere also remains a huge opportunity in the public sector as management mentioned that the Army’s budget for their command and control software is only 0.015% of hardware and software spend.The principal reason is that the DoD is at the very beginning of a long-term allocation shift from hardware to software. For example, the Army is spending a mere 0.015% of its budget on command and control software in fiscal year '24. But as we confront crisis and conflict in three theaters, this is changing. Growth is being driven by the incredible dynamism of the US commercial market, and US government will follow.Shyam Sankar, CTO PalantirThough I wouldn’t bet the farm on an overnight success in government contracts, I do believe that this will be a slow grower for the firm and accumulate value over a long period of time. At the risk of overstepping my analyst duties, I do believe that if any of these global skirmishes were to escalate to further involve the US, DoD investments in Palantir’s capabilities may be pulled forward. As management had alluded to in the Q4’23 earnings call, China may further become a threat as their economic growth engine stalls.One growth headwind that the firm faces, which I don’t believe to be as big of a challenge given the customer interest behind Palantir’s software, is that their salesforce is lagging behind their growth. Management spent a significant portion of the q4’23 earnings call discussing their recruitment process and that the firm is actively seeking to strengthen their headcount as the company’s profitability scales. Though this isn’t necessarily a bad problem to have, it can potentially create some challenges in customer relations and making sure each customer receives the appropriate attention to ensure retention and maximize cross-selling. Though I do not anticipate this to have a negative impact on the firm’s growth potential, I do anticipate that adding the additional headcount can reel in margins from their recent high. Taking management’s guidance for eFY24, Palantir’s adjusted operating margin is expected to taper from the Q4’23 high of 34% to 32% in eQ1’24 and in the range of 31-32% for eFY24, which remains well above the FY23 adjusted operating margin of 27%.In building a case for Palantir’s growth, I believe looking at the AI-enabling chip companies like Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Intel (INTC) as a guide from a hardware perspective can discern some intel on how the software portion of AI will react. Though I do not anticipate this to be a 1-for-1 equation, I do believe that there is some relation in which hardware is only as useful as the software that’s running on these high-performance chips. Management anticipates 17% top-line growth for Q1’24, which I believe is a very modest estimate.Corporate ReportsAs the firm grows and scales operations, I anticipate revenue growth to outpace any contractionary effects to margins as a result of scaling staff and infrastructure. I believe that Palantir has a huge opportunity and has only scratched the surface in scaling their AIP tool and I believe that as the firm continues to aggressively bring forward the product in their AIP bootcamps, I expect firms to latch onto its capabilities. Gartner forecasted 8% total IT spending growth with 13.8% growth in software alone for CY24. Their survey suggested that IT spend will primarily focus in cost-reducing technologies. As Palantir’s management had alluded to in their Q4’23 earnings call, AIP does just that.GartnerI anticipate a much higher concentration in IT spend being allocated to AI-enabling technologies. Contrary to the company Snowflake (SNOW) that I covered on January 30, 2024, Palantir’s software provides actionable capabilities for creating operational efficiencies. Snowflake, on the other hand, provides the database and a set of data analytic tools to be hosted in a hyperscaler environment for LLM analysis. Each software package brings forth its own merits; however, Palantir’s software package is more of an enabler vs. just a toolbox.Valuation & Shareholder ValueCorporate ReportsPLTR currently trades at 23.17x FY23 sales, a slight premium to the firm’s competitors. Given my expectations for Palantir’s growth trajectory into eFY24 and eFY25, I anticipate significant upside for PLTR shares. Forecasting out to eFY25, I provide PLTR shares a BUY recommendation with a price target of $30.70/share at 22.89x eFY25 sales.Corporate ReportsReviewing my previous technical chart, PLTR shares moved exactly as expected. Looking ahead to my $30.70/share price target, I anticipate a continued near-term run-up before a slight pullback to $21.59/share before moving up to my ultimate target. I believe that any pullback in shares will be a great buying opportunity as I anticipate this stock to appreciate by 40%.TradingView","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":83,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":266349497049224,"gmtCreate":1706062378642,"gmtModify":1706062383639,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"For this amount, i would go for US growth stocks. Wont touch dividend stocks until a higher amount as the dividends would be low.","listText":"For this amount, i would go for US growth stocks. Wont touch dividend stocks until a higher amount as the dividends would be low.","text":"For this amount, i would go for US growth stocks. Wont touch dividend stocks until a higher amount as the dividends would be low.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/266349497049224","repostId":"2405348443","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2405348443","pubTimestamp":1706060578,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2405348443?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-01-24 09:42","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"4 Reliable Dividend Stocks I Will Buy if I Had S$40,000","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2405348443","media":"The Smart Investor","summary":"Looking for dependable dividends? These four stocks may be the ones for your income-generating portfolio.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>It should be great news for many of you as the New Year arrives.</p><p>Yes, I am talking about the declaration of year-end bonuses and the receipt of annual wage supplements.</p><p>Armed with this extra cash, you can go shopping for solid, dividend-paying stocks to boost your passive income.</p><p>We introduce four dependable dividend-paying stocks that you can consider for your buy watchlist.</p><p>If I had an extra S$40,000 to spare, I would allocate this amount equally to these four dividend stocks.</p><h2 id=\"id_44287284\">Haw Par Corporation Ltd (SGX: H02)</h2><p>Haw Par Corporation is a conglomerate with four key divisions – Healthcare, represented by the famous Tiger Balm brand, Leisure, Investments, and Property.</p><p>The group has been a consistent payer of dividends over the years.</p><p>Haw Par paid out an annual dividend of S$0.20 per share from 2010 to 2017.</p><p>In 2018, the group paid a special dividend of S$0.85 and raised its regular dividend to S$0.30 to celebrate its 50th Anniversary.</p><p>The healthcare group has maintained this S$0.30 annual dividend through the pandemic year of 2020 through 2022.</p><p>For the first half of 2023 (1H 2023), Haw Par reported a strong recovery in its business with revenue rising 16.3% year on year to S$111.1 million.</p><p>Net profit for 1H 2023 climbed nearly 35% year on year to S$104.1 million.</p><p>Haw Par raised its interim dividend from S$0.15 to S$0.20, bringing its annualised dividend to S$0.40.</p><p>Looking ahead, the group should maintain this dividend as the business generates consistent positive free cash flow.</p><h2 id=\"id_2442079273\">Boustead Singapore Limited (SGX: F9D)</h2><p>Boustead Singapore Limited, or BSL, is an engineering group with four divisions – energy engineering, real estate, geospatial, and healthcare.</p><p>The group has a track record of paying out annual dividends since fiscal 2003 (Boustead has a 31 March fiscal year end)</p><p>Since fiscal 2018 (FY2018), BSL has paid out an annual dividend of S$0.03 per share and maintained this for FY2019 and FY2020.</p><p>In FY2021, the engineering group raised its regular dividend to S$0.04 while paying out a special dividend of S$0.04 because of the spin-off of a private investment fund by its subsidiary, Boustead Projects Limited.</p><p>Subsequently, FY2022 and FY2023 saw the group maintain its S$0.04 per year dividend.</p><p>For the first half of fiscal 2024 (1H FY2024) ending 30 September 2023, BSL saw revenue shoot up 49% year on year to S$367.9 million.</p><p>Net profit (adjusted for one-off items) soared 89% year on year to S$25.8 million.</p><p>The engineering group maintained its S$0.015 interim dividend on the back of healthy positive free cash flow.</p><h2 id=\"id_651702123\">CSE Global Ltd (SGX: 544)</h2><p>CSE Global is a systems integrator providing automation, communications, and electrification solutions spanning various industries.</p><p>The group has a presence across 16 countries with close to 2,000 employees globally.</p><p>The engineering firm has paid out a consistent annual dividend of S$0.0275 for the past five years from 2018 to 2022.</p><p>This consistency can be attributed to CSE Global’s track record in snagging new orders and its smooth delivery of contracts to its clients.</p><p>For the first nine months of 2023 (9M 2023), the group saw revenue jump 32.6% year on year to S$534.7 million.</p><p>Its order book stood at S$638 million as of 30 September 2023, up 55% year on year.</p><p>CSE Global maintained its interim dividend of S$0.0125 for 1H 2023 with net profit more than doubling year on year to S$11 million.</p><h2 id=\"id_1640915372\">Civmec Ltd (SGX: P9D)</h2><p>Civmec is an integrated construction and engineering services provider to the Energy, Resources, Infrastructure, and Marine &amp; Defence sectors.</p><p>Its capabilities include heavy engineering, shipbuilding, site civil works, and maintenance, among others.</p><p>The engineering firm has been steadily raising its annual dividend over the past few years.</p><p>In FY2020 (Civmec has a 30 June year-end), the total dividend was A$0.01 per share.</p><p>This dividend was maintained in FY2021 but FY2022 saw the dividend tripled to A$0.03 per share.</p><p>For FY2023, Civmec’s annual dividend jumped to A$0.05 per share.</p><p>This steady increase in dividends showcases the engineering firm’s commitment to increasing its dividend payout in line with its earnings.</p><p>The engineering group delivered a solid set of earnings for FY2023.</p><p>Revenue inched up 2.7% year on year to A$830.9 million while net profit increased by 13.7% year on year to S$57.7 million.</p><p>Its order book also grew by 10.6% year on year to A$1.1 billion.</p></body></html>","source":"thesmartinvestor_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Reliable Dividend Stocks I Will Buy if I Had S$40,000</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Reliable Dividend Stocks I Will Buy if I Had S$40,000\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-01-24 09:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/4-reliable-dividend-stocks-i-will-buy-if-i-had-s40000/><strong>The Smart Investor</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It should be great news for many of you as the New Year arrives.Yes, I am talking about the declaration of year-end bonuses and the receipt of annual wage supplements.Armed with this extra cash, you ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/4-reliable-dividend-stocks-i-will-buy-if-i-had-s40000/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"P9D.SI":"CIVMEC公司","H02.SI":"虎豹企业","BK6520":"工商业服务概念","544.SI":"CSE 环球","BK6508":"软件和IT服务概念","BK6045":"建筑与工程","BK6506":"制药与医学研究概念","BK6051":"信息科技咨询与其它服务","F9D.SI":"宝德新加坡","BK6079":"制药"},"source_url":"https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/4-reliable-dividend-stocks-i-will-buy-if-i-had-s40000/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2405348443","content_text":"It should be great news for many of you as the New Year arrives.Yes, I am talking about the declaration of year-end bonuses and the receipt of annual wage supplements.Armed with this extra cash, you can go shopping for solid, dividend-paying stocks to boost your passive income.We introduce four dependable dividend-paying stocks that you can consider for your buy watchlist.If I had an extra S$40,000 to spare, I would allocate this amount equally to these four dividend stocks.Haw Par Corporation Ltd (SGX: H02)Haw Par Corporation is a conglomerate with four key divisions – Healthcare, represented by the famous Tiger Balm brand, Leisure, Investments, and Property.The group has been a consistent payer of dividends over the years.Haw Par paid out an annual dividend of S$0.20 per share from 2010 to 2017.In 2018, the group paid a special dividend of S$0.85 and raised its regular dividend to S$0.30 to celebrate its 50th Anniversary.The healthcare group has maintained this S$0.30 annual dividend through the pandemic year of 2020 through 2022.For the first half of 2023 (1H 2023), Haw Par reported a strong recovery in its business with revenue rising 16.3% year on year to S$111.1 million.Net profit for 1H 2023 climbed nearly 35% year on year to S$104.1 million.Haw Par raised its interim dividend from S$0.15 to S$0.20, bringing its annualised dividend to S$0.40.Looking ahead, the group should maintain this dividend as the business generates consistent positive free cash flow.Boustead Singapore Limited (SGX: F9D)Boustead Singapore Limited, or BSL, is an engineering group with four divisions – energy engineering, real estate, geospatial, and healthcare.The group has a track record of paying out annual dividends since fiscal 2003 (Boustead has a 31 March fiscal year end)Since fiscal 2018 (FY2018), BSL has paid out an annual dividend of S$0.03 per share and maintained this for FY2019 and FY2020.In FY2021, the engineering group raised its regular dividend to S$0.04 while paying out a special dividend of S$0.04 because of the spin-off of a private investment fund by its subsidiary, Boustead Projects Limited.Subsequently, FY2022 and FY2023 saw the group maintain its S$0.04 per year dividend.For the first half of fiscal 2024 (1H FY2024) ending 30 September 2023, BSL saw revenue shoot up 49% year on year to S$367.9 million.Net profit (adjusted for one-off items) soared 89% year on year to S$25.8 million.The engineering group maintained its S$0.015 interim dividend on the back of healthy positive free cash flow.CSE Global Ltd (SGX: 544)CSE Global is a systems integrator providing automation, communications, and electrification solutions spanning various industries.The group has a presence across 16 countries with close to 2,000 employees globally.The engineering firm has paid out a consistent annual dividend of S$0.0275 for the past five years from 2018 to 2022.This consistency can be attributed to CSE Global’s track record in snagging new orders and its smooth delivery of contracts to its clients.For the first nine months of 2023 (9M 2023), the group saw revenue jump 32.6% year on year to S$534.7 million.Its order book stood at S$638 million as of 30 September 2023, up 55% year on year.CSE Global maintained its interim dividend of S$0.0125 for 1H 2023 with net profit more than doubling year on year to S$11 million.Civmec Ltd (SGX: P9D)Civmec is an integrated construction and engineering services provider to the Energy, Resources, Infrastructure, and Marine & Defence sectors.Its capabilities include heavy engineering, shipbuilding, site civil works, and maintenance, among others.The engineering firm has been steadily raising its annual dividend over the past few years.In FY2020 (Civmec has a 30 June year-end), the total dividend was A$0.01 per share.This dividend was maintained in FY2021 but FY2022 saw the dividend tripled to A$0.03 per share.For FY2023, Civmec’s annual dividend jumped to A$0.05 per share.This steady increase in dividends showcases the engineering firm’s commitment to increasing its dividend payout in line with its earnings.The engineering group delivered a solid set of earnings for FY2023.Revenue inched up 2.7% year on year to A$830.9 million while net profit increased by 13.7% year on year to S$57.7 million.Its order book also grew by 10.6% year on year to A$1.1 billion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":42,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":254044749779136,"gmtCreate":1703059472742,"gmtModify":1703059477267,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alrdy crashing now. Too little too late","listText":"Alrdy crashing now. Too little too late","text":"Alrdy crashing now. Too little too late","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/254044749779136","repostId":"1163836111","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163836111","pubTimestamp":1703048542,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1163836111?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-12-20 13:02","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore Raises Rental Occupancy Cap to Meet High Demand","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163836111","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Singapore will allow more tenants to occupy a single property under a temporary two-year measure to meet higher rental demand in the financial hub.Starting next year, larger public and private residential properties will be allowed to house up to eight unrelated persons from the current cap of six, Minister for National Development Desmond Lee said in a Facebook post on Wednesday.Rents in the city-state have surged since the pandemic, largely due to strong demand amid Covid-19 construction delay","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Singapore will allow more tenants to occupy a single property under a temporary two-year measure to meet higher rental demand in the financial hub.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Starting next year, larger public and private residential properties will be allowed to house up to eight unrelated persons from the current cap of six, Minister for National Development Desmond Lee said in a Facebook post on Wednesday.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Rents in the city-state have surged since the pandemic, largely due to strong demand amid Covid-19 construction delays, Lee said. The government has committed to ramp up housing supply, with close to 100,000 homes expected to be completed by 2025.</p><p>The momentum in rental price rises has moderated and demand is expected to be restrained by high interest rates and moderation in wage growth, the country’s central bank said last month.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Still, Lee anticipates the need to maintain a healthy rental supply for buyers waiting to move into their new homes and foreigners who work and study in the city-state.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The new measures will only apply to four-bedroom apartments or larger, Lee said. Singapore will review the need to extend the temporary rules in end-2026.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore Raises Rental Occupancy Cap to Meet High Demand</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore Raises Rental Occupancy Cap to Meet High Demand\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-12-20 13:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-20/singapore-eases-rental-occupancy-rules-to-meet-high-demand?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Singapore will allow more tenants to occupy a single property under a temporary two-year measure to meet higher rental demand in the financial hub.Starting next year, larger public and private ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-20/singapore-eases-rental-occupancy-rules-to-meet-high-demand?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-20/singapore-eases-rental-occupancy-rules-to-meet-high-demand?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163836111","content_text":"Singapore will allow more tenants to occupy a single property under a temporary two-year measure to meet higher rental demand in the financial hub.Starting next year, larger public and private residential properties will be allowed to house up to eight unrelated persons from the current cap of six, Minister for National Development Desmond Lee said in a Facebook post on Wednesday.Rents in the city-state have surged since the pandemic, largely due to strong demand amid Covid-19 construction delays, Lee said. The government has committed to ramp up housing supply, with close to 100,000 homes expected to be completed by 2025.The momentum in rental price rises has moderated and demand is expected to be restrained by high interest rates and moderation in wage growth, the country’s central bank said last month.Still, Lee anticipates the need to maintain a healthy rental supply for buyers waiting to move into their new homes and foreigners who work and study in the city-state.The new measures will only apply to four-bedroom apartments or larger, Lee said. Singapore will review the need to extend the temporary rules in end-2026.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":241315152887880,"gmtCreate":1699935716619,"gmtModify":1699935721765,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh crap time to sell","listText":"Oh crap time to sell","text":"Oh crap time to sell","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/241315152887880","repostId":"2383058199","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2383058199","pubTimestamp":1699930104,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2383058199?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-11-14 10:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock: Consider Buying The Dip","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2383058199","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Tesla, Inc. stock has dropped more than 25% since hitting YTD highs in July, making it an attractive buying opportunity.The recent dip in Tesla's stock is mainly due to a weakening gross margin profile, but this is a temporary issue that can be resolved with scale.Tesla has long-term tailwinds for gross margin as it achieves economies of scale and benefits from lower lithium prices.Though its >50x P/E ratio may look unconventionally expensive, the company's many growth catalysts defy traditional","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Tesla, Inc. stock has dropped more than 22% since hitting YTD highs in July, making it an attractive buying opportunity.</p></li><li><p>The recent dip in Tesla&#39;s stock is mainly due to a weakening gross margin profile, but this is a temporary issue that can be resolved with scale.</p></li><li><p>Tesla has long-term tailwinds for gross margin as it achieves economies of scale and benefits from lower lithium prices.</p></li><li><p>Though its &gt;50x P/E ratio may look unconventionally expensive, the company&#39;s many growth catalysts defy traditional valuation metrics.</p></li></ul><p>The market has been roaring over the past few weeks with interest rate fears quelling. And while most tech and growth stocks have surged dramatically (and some, like Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), have hit new all-time highs), one major holdout from the party are electric vehicle (&#34;EV&#34;) stocks, and in particular, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla, Inc.</a>.</p><p>Since hitting YTD highs above $290 in July, shares of Tesla have cratered more than 22%. The question many investors are asking now: is it time to buy the dip? My answer is a resounding yes.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/801b948a547ca6fd451eed4dcd32612b\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"435\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>I last wrote about Tesla toward the end of last year, issuing a bullish rating on the stock when it was trading closer to $120. My position is still sitting on some handsome gains since the start of the year: but I&#39;m not shy to add more on this dip. I remain solidly <strong>bullish</strong> on Tesla and believe many of the current headwinds that the company faces are temporary.</p><p><strong>The bottom line here:</strong> now is an excellent time to pick up shares of Tesla, whether adding to a current position or initiating one. For me, this is a long-term bet, and I think there are plenty of upside catalysts that can take Tesla beyond the current doldrums.</p><h2 id=\"id_914498082\">Gross margin issues are transitory and cured with scale</h2><p>The large bastion of Tesla naysayers have a lot of the usual criticisms toward the company: competition with other automakers (both traditional carmakers as well as EV rivals like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">Rivian Automotive, Inc.</a> (RIVN)), key-man risk in Elon Musk who is perpetually distracted by too many business ventures, and high valuation.</p><p>The crux of the recent dip on Tesla, however, is centered on the company&#39;s latest gross margin profile, which showed a sequential weakening in the company&#39;s recent Q3 earnings print.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b34d28b07033f4c7b8338880fc4af32\" title=\"Tesla Q3 highlights (Tesla Q3 earnings deck)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"273\"/><span>Tesla Q3 highlights (Tesla Q3 earnings deck)</span></p><p>Gross margin ticked down to 17.9% in Q3, down <strong>719bps y/y and 30bps sequentially.</strong> This, of course, is a result of Tesla&#39;s decision to cut prices on the entry-level Model 3 and Y vehicles this year in an attempt to spur demand. One could argue (and bears certainly have) that with federal tax credits open again to Tesla EVs plus the carmaker&#39;s own price drops, there has never been a more buyer-friendly environment to splurge on a Tesla. Plus, long waiting periods are over! (during the pandemic, a potential buyer might have had to wait months to have a custom Tesla order delivered; and dealer inventory was equally low).</p><p>We can&#39;t forget the fact, however, that soft demand is a major symptom of the macro environment. And unlike other recessions, this is also a recession that hits harder on upper and upper middle-class incomes due to broad corporate layoffs, particularly in the tech industry. Add that on top of stifling interest rates for car loans, and it&#39;s not difficult to see why Tesla&#39;s minor price cuts might not be moving potential buyers off the couch.</p><p>Nor will price cuts be a forever phenomenon. In China, one of Tesla&#39;s most important markets, the company recently raised prices again after cutting them earlier this year - of course, in response to rising costs, but surely also a sign that the company feels confident enough in the region&#39;s demand that it feels comfortable raising prices.</p><p>We also can&#39;t forget that Tesla has long-term tailwinds for gross margin as it achieves economies of scale. Plus, lithium prices (a core component to EV batteries) have dropped sharply, and as Tesla&#39;s technology improves, so will its cost per unit.</p><p>Production was up 18% y/y in the third quarter, with production of Models 3 and Y growing 20% y/y.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96d19887888e2a26b2d69082c0757b65\" title=\"Tesla production ramp (Tesla Q3 earnings deck)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"289\"/><span>Tesla production ramp (Tesla Q3 earnings deck)</span></p><p>The ideal state for Tesla, in my view, will be to stabilize prices which consumers will get used to (there are likely a number of buyers holding out hope for Tesla to continue dropping prices). Over time, growth in production plus natural cost take-downs in battery prices should help Tesla return to 2022-level gross margins (or even better).</p><h2 id=\"id_2917344412\">Look beyond the near-term auto business</h2><p>Bears who bark at Tesla&#39;s high P/E ratio amid declining gross margins are, in my view, quite short-sighted and don&#39;t give the EV giant enough credit for its other initiatives. As most consumers know, Tesla has its hands in a number of other ventures including solar and robotics (the company&#39;s Optimus robot gained walking and object pickup abilities this year), but one of the most promising routes to additional monetization and profitability is the buildout of its Supercharger network.</p><p>As of the end of the third quarter, the company had just about 5.6k Supercharging stations pinned throughout the United States. Investors should note as well that the company just opened this Supercharger network to non-Tesla EVs earlier this year.</p><p>A bet on Tesla isn&#39;t just a bet on this single automaker and its ability to take on Detroit - it&#39;s a bet on the entire EV industry, California&#39;s pledge to eliminate gas-vehicle sales by 2030, and other states&#39;/countries&#39; propensity to enact similar rules, and the general awareness of modern consumers of both the price and damage of fossil fuels.</p><p>Today, the &#34;services and other&#34; segment at Tesla generates just under 10% of overall revenue, but grew at a startling 32% y/y - a direct correlation to the company&#39;s decision to open this network to other EVs.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/910cadd620385c69d78174594de8cba9\" title=\"Tesla services (Tesla Q3 earnings deck)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\"/><span>Tesla services (Tesla Q3 earnings deck)</span></p><p>This business, meanwhile, just started generating meaningful gross profits earlier this year, as showcased in the chart above.</p><p>New vehicle form factors are another major opportunity for Tesla. Now, among the reasons that Tesla stock diminished over the past month is Elon Musk&#39;s own seeming bearishness on the progress of the segment. Per his remarks on the Q3 earnings call:</p><blockquote><p>The Cybertruck, I know a lot of people are excited about the Cybertruck. I am too. I&#39;ve driven the car. It&#39;s an amazing product. I do want to emphasize that there will be enormous challenges in reaching volume production with the Cybertruck, and then in making a Cybertruck cash flow positive. This is simply normal for when you&#39;ve got a product with a lot of new technology or any new vehicle, brand new vehicle program, but especially one that is as different and advanced as the Cybertruck, you will have problems proportionate to how many new things you&#39;re trying to solve at scale. So, I just want to emphasize that while I think this is potentially our best product ever and I think it is our best product ever, it is going to be -- require immense work to reach volume production and be cash flow positive at a price that people can afford.</p><p>Often people do not understand what is truly hard. That&#39;s why I say prototypes are easy, production is hard. People think it&#39;s the idea, or you make a prototype, you design a car. And as soon as they&#39;re designing a car, it&#39;s just that anyone can do it, it does require taste, it does require effort to design a prototype. But it&#39;s difficult to go from a prototype to volume production, it&#39;s like 10,000% harder to get to volume production than to make a prototype in the first place, and then it is even harder than that to reach positive cash flow. That is why there have not been new car startups that have been successful for 100 years apart from Tesla.</p><p>So, I just want to temper expectations for Cybertruck. It&#39;s a great product, but financially it will take, I don&#39;t know, a year to 18 months before it is a significant positive cash flow contributor. I wish there was some way for that to be different, but that&#39;s my best guess. The demand is off the charts. We have over 1 million people who&#39;ve reserved the car. So it&#39;s not a demand issue, but we have to make it and we need to make it at a price that people can afford insanely difficult things.&#34;</p></blockquote><p>But again, we should look at the long term. The backlog/reservations for the truck are one indicator. Enterprise applications of heavier vehicles are another tailwind investors should consider. Difficulties in the Rivian - Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) partnership have surfaced over the past month, one major reason this Tesla rival&#39;s stock has sunk. It&#39;s not implausible to imagine Tesla taking over the retail and logistics industries with self-driving delivery vehicles, for which it already has the forefront experience and credibility in the space.</p><h2 id=\"id_1548855182\">Valuation and key takeaways</h2><p>The range of earnings estimates for Tesla is wide, with Wall Street analysts pointing to a low EPS of $2.27 to a high of $5.85 in FY24, per Yahoo Finance. Consensus aggregates point to EPS of $3.85 (+28% y/y versus this year&#39;s estimate of $3.00), which wouldn&#39;t have Tesla returning to FY22 EPS levels (its best year ever in which it generated $4.07 in EPS). Consensus is also pointing to 22% y/y revenue growth to $112.1 billion.</p><p>Against the consensus EPS estimate, Tesla trades at a <strong>56x P/E -</strong> which many bears have pointed out as unreasonable in a 5%+ interest rate environment. In my view, however, Tesla defies conventional valuation thinking by having so many growth catalysts under its belt - economies of scale as vehicle production increases, growth in the Supercharging network, and the reliance of other EV brands on Tesla&#39;s first-mover advantage in the space, new vehicles, and enterprise go-to-market potential, not to mention solar/energy and robotics. Though the risks of near-term profitability erosion are certainly present, I&#39;m optimistic for the long term and am more than happy to add to my current position in the low $200s.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock: Consider Buying The Dip</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock: Consider Buying The Dip\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-11-14 10:48 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4651250-tesla-stock-consider-buying-the-dip><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla, Inc. stock has dropped more than 22% since hitting YTD highs in July, making it an attractive buying opportunity.The recent dip in Tesla's stock is mainly due to a weakening gross margin ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4651250-tesla-stock-consider-buying-the-dip\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLL":"Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4651250-tesla-stock-consider-buying-the-dip","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2383058199","content_text":"Tesla, Inc. stock has dropped more than 22% since hitting YTD highs in July, making it an attractive buying opportunity.The recent dip in Tesla's stock is mainly due to a weakening gross margin profile, but this is a temporary issue that can be resolved with scale.Tesla has long-term tailwinds for gross margin as it achieves economies of scale and benefits from lower lithium prices.Though its >50x P/E ratio may look unconventionally expensive, the company's many growth catalysts defy traditional valuation metrics.The market has been roaring over the past few weeks with interest rate fears quelling. And while most tech and growth stocks have surged dramatically (and some, like Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), have hit new all-time highs), one major holdout from the party are electric vehicle (\"EV\") stocks, and in particular, Tesla, Inc..Since hitting YTD highs above $290 in July, shares of Tesla have cratered more than 22%. The question many investors are asking now: is it time to buy the dip? My answer is a resounding yes.Data by YChartsI last wrote about Tesla toward the end of last year, issuing a bullish rating on the stock when it was trading closer to $120. My position is still sitting on some handsome gains since the start of the year: but I'm not shy to add more on this dip. I remain solidly bullish on Tesla and believe many of the current headwinds that the company faces are temporary.The bottom line here: now is an excellent time to pick up shares of Tesla, whether adding to a current position or initiating one. For me, this is a long-term bet, and I think there are plenty of upside catalysts that can take Tesla beyond the current doldrums.Gross margin issues are transitory and cured with scaleThe large bastion of Tesla naysayers have a lot of the usual criticisms toward the company: competition with other automakers (both traditional carmakers as well as EV rivals like Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN)), key-man risk in Elon Musk who is perpetually distracted by too many business ventures, and high valuation.The crux of the recent dip on Tesla, however, is centered on the company's latest gross margin profile, which showed a sequential weakening in the company's recent Q3 earnings print.Tesla Q3 highlights (Tesla Q3 earnings deck)Gross margin ticked down to 17.9% in Q3, down 719bps y/y and 30bps sequentially. This, of course, is a result of Tesla's decision to cut prices on the entry-level Model 3 and Y vehicles this year in an attempt to spur demand. One could argue (and bears certainly have) that with federal tax credits open again to Tesla EVs plus the carmaker's own price drops, there has never been a more buyer-friendly environment to splurge on a Tesla. Plus, long waiting periods are over! (during the pandemic, a potential buyer might have had to wait months to have a custom Tesla order delivered; and dealer inventory was equally low).We can't forget the fact, however, that soft demand is a major symptom of the macro environment. And unlike other recessions, this is also a recession that hits harder on upper and upper middle-class incomes due to broad corporate layoffs, particularly in the tech industry. Add that on top of stifling interest rates for car loans, and it's not difficult to see why Tesla's minor price cuts might not be moving potential buyers off the couch.Nor will price cuts be a forever phenomenon. In China, one of Tesla's most important markets, the company recently raised prices again after cutting them earlier this year - of course, in response to rising costs, but surely also a sign that the company feels confident enough in the region's demand that it feels comfortable raising prices.We also can't forget that Tesla has long-term tailwinds for gross margin as it achieves economies of scale. Plus, lithium prices (a core component to EV batteries) have dropped sharply, and as Tesla's technology improves, so will its cost per unit.Production was up 18% y/y in the third quarter, with production of Models 3 and Y growing 20% y/y.Tesla production ramp (Tesla Q3 earnings deck)The ideal state for Tesla, in my view, will be to stabilize prices which consumers will get used to (there are likely a number of buyers holding out hope for Tesla to continue dropping prices). Over time, growth in production plus natural cost take-downs in battery prices should help Tesla return to 2022-level gross margins (or even better).Look beyond the near-term auto businessBears who bark at Tesla's high P/E ratio amid declining gross margins are, in my view, quite short-sighted and don't give the EV giant enough credit for its other initiatives. As most consumers know, Tesla has its hands in a number of other ventures including solar and robotics (the company's Optimus robot gained walking and object pickup abilities this year), but one of the most promising routes to additional monetization and profitability is the buildout of its Supercharger network.As of the end of the third quarter, the company had just about 5.6k Supercharging stations pinned throughout the United States. Investors should note as well that the company just opened this Supercharger network to non-Tesla EVs earlier this year.A bet on Tesla isn't just a bet on this single automaker and its ability to take on Detroit - it's a bet on the entire EV industry, California's pledge to eliminate gas-vehicle sales by 2030, and other states'/countries' propensity to enact similar rules, and the general awareness of modern consumers of both the price and damage of fossil fuels.Today, the \"services and other\" segment at Tesla generates just under 10% of overall revenue, but grew at a startling 32% y/y - a direct correlation to the company's decision to open this network to other EVs.Tesla services (Tesla Q3 earnings deck)This business, meanwhile, just started generating meaningful gross profits earlier this year, as showcased in the chart above.New vehicle form factors are another major opportunity for Tesla. Now, among the reasons that Tesla stock diminished over the past month is Elon Musk's own seeming bearishness on the progress of the segment. Per his remarks on the Q3 earnings call:The Cybertruck, I know a lot of people are excited about the Cybertruck. I am too. I've driven the car. It's an amazing product. I do want to emphasize that there will be enormous challenges in reaching volume production with the Cybertruck, and then in making a Cybertruck cash flow positive. This is simply normal for when you've got a product with a lot of new technology or any new vehicle, brand new vehicle program, but especially one that is as different and advanced as the Cybertruck, you will have problems proportionate to how many new things you're trying to solve at scale. So, I just want to emphasize that while I think this is potentially our best product ever and I think it is our best product ever, it is going to be -- require immense work to reach volume production and be cash flow positive at a price that people can afford.Often people do not understand what is truly hard. That's why I say prototypes are easy, production is hard. People think it's the idea, or you make a prototype, you design a car. And as soon as they're designing a car, it's just that anyone can do it, it does require taste, it does require effort to design a prototype. But it's difficult to go from a prototype to volume production, it's like 10,000% harder to get to volume production than to make a prototype in the first place, and then it is even harder than that to reach positive cash flow. That is why there have not been new car startups that have been successful for 100 years apart from Tesla.So, I just want to temper expectations for Cybertruck. It's a great product, but financially it will take, I don't know, a year to 18 months before it is a significant positive cash flow contributor. I wish there was some way for that to be different, but that's my best guess. The demand is off the charts. We have over 1 million people who've reserved the car. So it's not a demand issue, but we have to make it and we need to make it at a price that people can afford insanely difficult things.\"But again, we should look at the long term. The backlog/reservations for the truck are one indicator. Enterprise applications of heavier vehicles are another tailwind investors should consider. Difficulties in the Rivian - Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) partnership have surfaced over the past month, one major reason this Tesla rival's stock has sunk. It's not implausible to imagine Tesla taking over the retail and logistics industries with self-driving delivery vehicles, for which it already has the forefront experience and credibility in the space.Valuation and key takeawaysThe range of earnings estimates for Tesla is wide, with Wall Street analysts pointing to a low EPS of $2.27 to a high of $5.85 in FY24, per Yahoo Finance. Consensus aggregates point to EPS of $3.85 (+28% y/y versus this year's estimate of $3.00), which wouldn't have Tesla returning to FY22 EPS levels (its best year ever in which it generated $4.07 in EPS). Consensus is also pointing to 22% y/y revenue growth to $112.1 billion.Against the consensus EPS estimate, Tesla trades at a 56x P/E - which many bears have pointed out as unreasonable in a 5%+ interest rate environment. In my view, however, Tesla defies conventional valuation thinking by having so many growth catalysts under its belt - economies of scale as vehicle production increases, growth in the Supercharging network, and the reliance of other EV brands on Tesla's first-mover advantage in the space, new vehicles, and enterprise go-to-market potential, not to mention solar/energy and robotics. Though the risks of near-term profitability erosion are certainly present, I'm optimistic for the long term and am more than happy to add to my current position in the low $200s.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":226879195471944,"gmtCreate":1696469211602,"gmtModify":1696469216381,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good day","listText":"Good day","text":"Good day","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6664b0593847e6a82dccb0049634421c","width":"596","height":"1005"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/226879195471944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":218757236908136,"gmtCreate":1694433247760,"gmtModify":1694433255378,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice day","listText":"Nice day","text":"Nice day","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f9e997fd0bdd0bf2e7e60f09245762cd","width":"596","height":"1005"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/218757236908136","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196775940059152,"gmtCreate":1689076890383,"gmtModify":1689076893934,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/196775940059152","repostId":"2350150577","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2350150577","pubTimestamp":1689089244,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2350150577?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-07-11 23:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"CPI Preview: Disinflation Is Finished - Inflation To Start Rising Again","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2350150577","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"When inflation is rising, the Federal Funds rate  always is above the core PCE . But more importantly, near the peaks in inflation, the Fed would accelerate the hikes - well above the PCE inflation. That's how you win the race.For example, in March 1980, the Fed hiked from 14% to 17%, while core PCE was at a peak of 9.3%.And now let's look at the current situation. The Fed let inflation get ahead by far in 2022 by wrongly assuming that the inflationary spike was \"transitory.\" The Fed finally cau","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1040294062\">Inflation fight - The last 100 meters</h2><p>BIS Annual Economic Report 2023 discusses the macro challenges with &#34;last mile&#34; inflation fight, and states that &#34;the next phase of disinflation may become more difficult.&#34;</p><p>The concept of &#34;last mile&#34; is likely based on a marathon. I competed in 400M/800M events, so I&#39;m familiar with the &#34;last 100m&#34; concept - that&#39;s when the lactic acid kicks in and the legs get heavy, but you have to keep moving.</p><p>I was coached by Que McMaster who worked with the great Micheal Johnson (four Olympic gold medals) in his early days at Baylor, and he had a scientific approach to the &#34;last 100m&#34; problem. The data showed that you can sprint at max speed for 20-25 seconds without triggering lactic acid, so you start really fast, and then you switch into the &#34;glide mode.&#34; The secret was to switch from the &#34;glide mode&#34; to the &#34;finish mode&#34; efficiently, so you can cross the finish line at full speed - without ever triggering lactic acid. The strategy was to get ahead of the competition, and if they never catch up, you win, and if they do catch up, you have enough energy to switch into the higher gear in the last 100m and still win.</p><h2 id=\"id_2395002047\">The Fed is doing it all wrong</h2><p>The Fed is essentially in a race against inflation. Drawing lessons from McMaster&#39;s race strategy, the Fed is supposed to get ahead of inflation - and if inflation accelerates, shift into a more aggressive tightening mode until the clear victory. In fact, that was exactly the Fed&#39;s strategy in the 1970s/early 1980s. Here&#39;s the graph that shows core PCE inflation (in blue) and effective Federal Funds rate (in red):</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecb07668513c546a65cf80bab6bd6b69\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"273\"/></p><p>FRED</p><p>What do we see? When inflation is rising, the Federal Funds rate (red) always is above the core PCE (blue). But more importantly, near the peaks in inflation, the Fed would accelerate the hikes - well above the PCE inflation. That&#39;s how you win the race.</p><p>For example, in March 1980, the Fed hiked from 14% to 17%, while core PCE was at a peak of 9.3%.</p><p>And now let&#39;s look at the current situation. The Fed let inflation get ahead by far in 2022 by wrongly assuming that the inflationary spike was &#34;transitory.&#34; The Fed finally caught up with inflation in May 2023 - and then paused? What a mistake. Why? Because it appears that inflation is about to turn higher. It appears that inflation is being coached by McMaster. So, the &#34;last 100m&#34; of this race will be very interesting.</p><h2 id=\"id_1551354841\">Is inflation turning higher?</h2><p>The BLS will release the inflation data for June 2023. These are the expectations:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a2f496f0dbe4ef7c27b5d5e3f7f4e94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"186\"/></p><p>Trading Economics</p><p>So, the headline inflation is expected to sharply fall to 3.1%, but the month-over-month inflation is expected to rise to 0.3%. Core CPI is expected to slightly fall to 5%, while the month-over is also expected at 0.3%.</p><p>The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast predicts slightly higher numbers for June, with CPI at 3.2%, and core CPI at 5.1%, with a 0.4% month-over-month increase for both. Thus, we could get a higher-than-expected number for June.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c931382bcb41e7c48d63f5b6a122dc22\" tg-width=\"522\" tg-height=\"237\"/></p><p>Cleveland Fed</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31204265451c2e58dbfa0e9f64b130c\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"239\"/></p><p>Cleveland Fed</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>But, more importantly, Nowcast predicts higher CPI and core CPI for July at 3.6% and 5.2%, respectively. Even more worrisome is the constant 0.4% month-over-month increase for the core CPI, which is consistent with a steady 5% annual core inflation.</p><p>In fact, the annualized quarterly inflation for Q3 is expected to rise to 4.42% from 3% - that&#39;s a sharp upturn in inflation.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a799a5b1d21f1242625628e196af499\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"176\"/></p><p>Cleveland Fed</p><h2 id=\"id_990055891\">Why is inflation rising again?</h2><p>First, inflation is estimated as a 12-month year-over-year increase in prices - so each month you delete the month a year ago from the calculation. Well, last year there was a spike in energy/food prices due to the war in Ukraine, and the peak was in June, so the inflation number for July deletes the June 2022 number - that&#39;s the base effect for the headline CPI, and it looks like this (the big bar is out of the picture for July):</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7196f73499cdc312dfa5f10d6fcc74db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\"/></p><p>Trading Economics</p><p>And this is the month-over-month inflation for core CPI:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b926d12d7445010f0e24578383effa7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\"/></p><p>Trading Economics</p><p>The most important data to look at is the fact that over the last six months, the month-over-month core CPI inflation was steady at 0.4%, which is expected to hold for at least the next two months, based on Nowcast. That&#39;s consistent with over 5% annual core CPI - while the target is 2%.</p><p>So, once the base effects are out, we are facing the &#34;last mile&#34; or the &#34;last 100m,&#34; and BIS said this will be a very difficult race. Specifically, BIS is very concerned that there could be a price-wage inflationary spiral in making. When looking at the totality of data, BIS concludes that there&#39;s a high risk of a transition to the 1970s-like high-inflationary mode. More info here.</p><h2 id=\"id_2346461144\">What does the Fed need to do now?</h2><p>The Fed started the race from behind and has been trying to catch up. In order to win the race, the Fed needs to accelerate the monetary policy tightening, well above what is currently expected. Just look at the chart provided above, the red line has to be well above the blue line, there&#39;s no other way. In other words, the Fed might need to surprise the market with a 50bpt hike in July. That&#39;s the transition to the &#34;finish mode,&#34; and that&#39;s what worked in the 1970s. The Taylor rule tool also suggests that the Federal Funds rate should currently be somewhere between 6.6-7.2%.</p><p>The race is over when we see a consistent 0.1%, 0.2% in core PCE for several months. Unfortunately, this might require a very sharp increase in the unemployment rate, possibly above 6%-7%.</p><h2 id=\"id_3478179582\">Implications</h2><p>This is the Fed&#39;s strategy for the &#34;last mile&#34; or &#34;last 100m&#34; of the inflation race: stay behind and wait for inflation to get &#34;tired,&#34; or wait for inflation to get &#34;the lactic acid&#34; and just die out.</p><p>This strategy is unlikely to work, and the Fed will be forced to be more aggressive - to shift into the &#34;finish mode.&#34; However, this will likely cause a deep recession. In fact, there are already signs that growth is stalling or contracting based on the real GDI measure, and yet inflation is expected to turn higher after the June reading.</p><p>The BIS report is particularly worried about the housing sector if the Fed is forced to hike 200bpt above the May rate to above 6%. In this scenario, the housing prices would drop below their 2012 level or more than 33% from the peak. This might be required to bring inflation to 2%.</p><p>The financial sector (XLF) is at the center of the upcoming crisis, given the expected fall in housing prices, and the expected solvency issues in the commercial real estate (XLRE).</p><p>Regional banks (KRE) are likely to be most vulnerable, given their heavy exposure to commercial real estate and mortgages. In addition, the further expected increase in the Federal Funds rate will continue to increase their cost of capital and accelerate the deposit outflows. Thus, it&#39;s likely that many more regional banks would fail.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CPI Preview: Disinflation Is Finished - Inflation To Start Rising Again</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCPI Preview: Disinflation Is Finished - Inflation To Start Rising Again\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-11 23:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4616102-cpi-preview-disinflation-finished-inflation-to-start-rising-again><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Inflation fight - The last 100 metersBIS Annual Economic Report 2023 discusses the macro challenges with \"last mile\" inflation fight, and states that \"the next phase of disinflation may become more ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4616102-cpi-preview-disinflation-finished-inflation-to-start-rising-again\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4616102-cpi-preview-disinflation-finished-inflation-to-start-rising-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2350150577","content_text":"Inflation fight - The last 100 metersBIS Annual Economic Report 2023 discusses the macro challenges with \"last mile\" inflation fight, and states that \"the next phase of disinflation may become more difficult.\"The concept of \"last mile\" is likely based on a marathon. I competed in 400M/800M events, so I'm familiar with the \"last 100m\" concept - that's when the lactic acid kicks in and the legs get heavy, but you have to keep moving.I was coached by Que McMaster who worked with the great Micheal Johnson (four Olympic gold medals) in his early days at Baylor, and he had a scientific approach to the \"last 100m\" problem. The data showed that you can sprint at max speed for 20-25 seconds without triggering lactic acid, so you start really fast, and then you switch into the \"glide mode.\" The secret was to switch from the \"glide mode\" to the \"finish mode\" efficiently, so you can cross the finish line at full speed - without ever triggering lactic acid. The strategy was to get ahead of the competition, and if they never catch up, you win, and if they do catch up, you have enough energy to switch into the higher gear in the last 100m and still win.The Fed is doing it all wrongThe Fed is essentially in a race against inflation. Drawing lessons from McMaster's race strategy, the Fed is supposed to get ahead of inflation - and if inflation accelerates, shift into a more aggressive tightening mode until the clear victory. In fact, that was exactly the Fed's strategy in the 1970s/early 1980s. Here's the graph that shows core PCE inflation (in blue) and effective Federal Funds rate (in red):FREDWhat do we see? When inflation is rising, the Federal Funds rate (red) always is above the core PCE (blue). But more importantly, near the peaks in inflation, the Fed would accelerate the hikes - well above the PCE inflation. That's how you win the race.For example, in March 1980, the Fed hiked from 14% to 17%, while core PCE was at a peak of 9.3%.And now let's look at the current situation. The Fed let inflation get ahead by far in 2022 by wrongly assuming that the inflationary spike was \"transitory.\" The Fed finally caught up with inflation in May 2023 - and then paused? What a mistake. Why? Because it appears that inflation is about to turn higher. It appears that inflation is being coached by McMaster. So, the \"last 100m\" of this race will be very interesting.Is inflation turning higher?The BLS will release the inflation data for June 2023. These are the expectations:Trading EconomicsSo, the headline inflation is expected to sharply fall to 3.1%, but the month-over-month inflation is expected to rise to 0.3%. Core CPI is expected to slightly fall to 5%, while the month-over is also expected at 0.3%.The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast predicts slightly higher numbers for June, with CPI at 3.2%, and core CPI at 5.1%, with a 0.4% month-over-month increase for both. Thus, we could get a higher-than-expected number for June.Cleveland FedCleveland FedBut, more importantly, Nowcast predicts higher CPI and core CPI for July at 3.6% and 5.2%, respectively. Even more worrisome is the constant 0.4% month-over-month increase for the core CPI, which is consistent with a steady 5% annual core inflation.In fact, the annualized quarterly inflation for Q3 is expected to rise to 4.42% from 3% - that's a sharp upturn in inflation.Cleveland FedWhy is inflation rising again?First, inflation is estimated as a 12-month year-over-year increase in prices - so each month you delete the month a year ago from the calculation. Well, last year there was a spike in energy/food prices due to the war in Ukraine, and the peak was in June, so the inflation number for July deletes the June 2022 number - that's the base effect for the headline CPI, and it looks like this (the big bar is out of the picture for July):Trading EconomicsAnd this is the month-over-month inflation for core CPI:Trading EconomicsThe most important data to look at is the fact that over the last six months, the month-over-month core CPI inflation was steady at 0.4%, which is expected to hold for at least the next two months, based on Nowcast. That's consistent with over 5% annual core CPI - while the target is 2%.So, once the base effects are out, we are facing the \"last mile\" or the \"last 100m,\" and BIS said this will be a very difficult race. Specifically, BIS is very concerned that there could be a price-wage inflationary spiral in making. When looking at the totality of data, BIS concludes that there's a high risk of a transition to the 1970s-like high-inflationary mode. More info here.What does the Fed need to do now?The Fed started the race from behind and has been trying to catch up. In order to win the race, the Fed needs to accelerate the monetary policy tightening, well above what is currently expected. Just look at the chart provided above, the red line has to be well above the blue line, there's no other way. In other words, the Fed might need to surprise the market with a 50bpt hike in July. That's the transition to the \"finish mode,\" and that's what worked in the 1970s. The Taylor rule tool also suggests that the Federal Funds rate should currently be somewhere between 6.6-7.2%.The race is over when we see a consistent 0.1%, 0.2% in core PCE for several months. Unfortunately, this might require a very sharp increase in the unemployment rate, possibly above 6%-7%.ImplicationsThis is the Fed's strategy for the \"last mile\" or \"last 100m\" of the inflation race: stay behind and wait for inflation to get \"tired,\" or wait for inflation to get \"the lactic acid\" and just die out.This strategy is unlikely to work, and the Fed will be forced to be more aggressive - to shift into the \"finish mode.\" However, this will likely cause a deep recession. In fact, there are already signs that growth is stalling or contracting based on the real GDI measure, and yet inflation is expected to turn higher after the June reading.The BIS report is particularly worried about the housing sector if the Fed is forced to hike 200bpt above the May rate to above 6%. In this scenario, the housing prices would drop below their 2012 level or more than 33% from the peak. This might be required to bring inflation to 2%.The financial sector (XLF) is at the center of the upcoming crisis, given the expected fall in housing prices, and the expected solvency issues in the commercial real estate (XLRE).Regional banks (KRE) are likely to be most vulnerable, given their heavy exposure to commercial real estate and mortgages. In addition, the further expected increase in the Federal Funds rate will continue to increase their cost of capital and accelerate the deposit outflows. Thus, it's likely that many more regional banks would fail.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947113450,"gmtCreate":1682664369771,"gmtModify":1682664374010,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Flow back to HK.","listText":"Flow back to HK.","text":"Flow back to HK.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947113450","repostId":"1190454623","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942203686,"gmtCreate":1681223486345,"gmtModify":1681223489892,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy high Sell low","listText":"Buy high Sell low","text":"Buy high Sell low","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942203686","repostId":"1116529806","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1116529806","pubTimestamp":1681216371,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116529806?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-04-11 20:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"It's Almost Time To Load Up On Tesla","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116529806","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla, Inc.'s massive rally has consolidated for months now.I see some reasons for caution at","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><ul><li><p>Tesla, Inc.&#39;s massive rally has consolidated for months now.</p></li><li><p>I see some reasons for caution at the moment, but remain longer-term bullish.</p></li><li><p>Risk/reward here is terrific if you use stops prudently.</p></li></ul><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e94c2a45c7301b8ea00c807d826e5dd\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"563\"/></p>Growth stocks have been absolutely outstanding so far this year, after being truly awful for most of 2022. My viewpoint on the U.S. market for 2023 is quite bullish, and that’s predicated on growth and tech continuing to outperform. We’ll see consolidation periods and selloffs, of course, but I maintain that we’ll see much higher prices in the U.S. equity markets at the end of this year than where we started.<p></p><p>Perhaps the most followed growth stock is <strong>Tesla, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:TSLA), and the last time I covered the stock was about seven months ago. Much has occurred since then, to say the least. TSLA stock went to a well-publicized low of $101, but quite swiftly <em>doubled</em> off of that low. It’s one of the best performing stocks in the U.S. market so far this year, which is incredible given its size.</p><p>The stock has been consolidating since the high, and we’ll touch on that below. However, so long as we hold the zone of support below, I’m maintaining my buy rating on Tesla. I’m not uber-bullish right now, but I still believe the medium and long-term trajectory is higher.</p><h2>Charting the course</h2><p>We’ll begin as we always do, with the chart. Tesla is in a consolidatory phase right now, having lost key moving average support in recent days.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bd969b308166473c523851a9fe245ed\" alt=\"Chart\" title=\"Chart\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"714\"/><span>Chart</span></p><p></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>StockCharts</strong></p><p></p><p>We have three local tops, which I’ve connected with the blue line above. There are lower highs being made, and there’s very strong support in the area of ~$165, which <em>has </em>to hold for the bulls; if that level is lost, look out below for a potential test of $100. I don’t think that’s going to happen, but I would not recommend Tesla should it lose that support level.</p><p>I mentioned the moving average support that was lost, and you can see where the rising 50-day simple moving average in blue above was used as support in early March. That line was lost a few days ago, and the stock fell further after losing it. This is not a bullish development and it’s giving me pause in terms of wanting to run out and buy the stock.</p><p>The accumulation/distribution line still looks outstanding, and very bullish. It measures whether big institutional money is buying dips or selling rips, and we are firmly in the former category for Tesla. That’s a bullish sign that the stock is being accumulated, which tends to indicate longer-term bullishness.</p><p>The 14-day RSI looks good as it continues to hold the 40 level, which is bull market behavior. The PPO is also testing the centerline, and we’ll need to see a bounce fairly soon to keep that bullishness alive.</p><p>To sum this up, given the loss of the moving average support, and lower highs being made, I would not be surprised to see a test of the $165 area. Should that occur, Tesla would be a great buy as the risk/reward would be outstanding. For now, it’s in no-man’s land.</p><p>The bottom panel has the stock’s correlation to the 10-year Treasury yield, which is key given the rate environment we’re in today. We can see Tesla’s long-term correlation to the 10-year Treasury is highly negative, which means 10-year Treasury yields and Tesla stock move in different directions. This makes perfect sense as higher rates mean lower valuations for growth stocks, and vice versa. Given that, it makes sense to look at yields, and we’ll do that now.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df23caaa9d1b39024f979a6cda4535bb\" alt=\"Chart\" title=\"Chart\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"517\"/><span>Chart</span></p><p></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>StockCharts</strong></p><p></p><p>The 10-year is testing absolutely critical support in the area of 3.3%, and given the look of momentum, I would be absolutely shocked if we don’t get a breakdown of yield, which is the same thing as a breakout of price, given price and yield move inversely. Point being, if I’m right about the direction of rates, Tesla and other growth stocks should do very well indeed.</p><h2>Fundamentals a mixed bag</h2><p>We all know the automakers are struggling with supply chain issues, and have been for some time. Of course, there are plenty of industries still grappling with the challenges that COVID presented across the globe. That means there are still wait times across the industry for various types of vehicles, dealer lots remain under-inventoried compared to pre-COVID norms, and rising loan interest rates that are crimping consumers’ ability to pay.</p><p>It is, perhaps, no wonder that estimates have come down for Tesla from a revenue perspective in recent months.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6db56943296955b720ccc22605349e2\" alt=\"vehicle deliveries\" title=\"vehicle deliveries\" tg-width=\"488\" tg-height=\"663\"/><span>vehicle deliveries</span></p><p></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Investor presentation</strong></p><p></p><p>Tesla has seen dips and pauses in vehicle delivery numbers in the past, but it appears to my eye that another one is a low probability. The company is seeing massive growth in China, as well as continuing to play around with U.S. pricing of its models. Much digital ink has been spilled about pricing actions from Tesla, but it seems pretty clear to me that these actions are being done out of a position of strength, not weakness.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3aa5e5e33f385e932756392920212de\" alt=\"market share\" title=\"market share\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\"/><span>market share</span></p><p></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Investor presentation</strong></p><p></p><p>So long as these lines move up and to the right, I’m not bothered with pricing actions. Every firm in every industry wants market share gains, and Tesla has them.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd8229ac2f452d6c4265fab68ea84bb9\" alt=\"revenue revisions\" title=\"revenue revisions\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"220\"/><span>revenue revisions</span></p><p></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></p><p></p><p>That being said, revenue estimates are headed lower in the past several months, which is less than ideal. So long as revenue estimates are falling, the stock may struggle to make a significant move higher. However, if/when they do turn higher again, look out above in terms of the stock price.</p><p>I normally would place more weight on revenue estimates, except that Tesla’s margin profile has continued to get better and better over time. What that means is that it is in a position to generate higher profitability on each dollar of revenue, and gives it the freedom to do things like cut prices. As I said, strength, not weakness.</p><p>Below, we have gross and operating margins on a trailing-twelve-months basis for the past few years for some context.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/16a5716422a4230b2d626cd03ab40b35\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"185\"/></p>Both have moved sharply higher over time, but what’s interesting is that operating margins have continued to grow while gross margins have actually declined in recent quarters. In the first quarter of 2022, gross margins were 27.1% of revenue, while operating margins were 15.5%. That’s a difference of 11.6%. The most recent quarter (with fresh earnings due out in a couple of weeks) was 25.6% and 16.8%, respectively. That’s a difference of 8.8%, which means the gap between operating margin and gross margin is contracting fairly rapidly. That’s an excellent development as it means that each dollar of revenue is becoming more profitable, <em>despite declining gross margins</em>. Imagine what would happen should the company focus on building gross margins again.<p></p><p>Regardless of whether the company continues to focus on market share, or decides to go after more margin, the future is bright and be in no doubt; pricing actions are being done from a position of strength.</p><h2>Cash is king</h2><p>One problem Tesla used to have – and one that I was very concerned about a few years ago – is cash burn. We all know Tesla expanded extremely rapidly over the past few years, which takes cash. However, not only does the company not burn cash any longer, but its balance sheet is absolutely outstanding.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c719393fec512ae018e4c836fbc4def\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"184\"/></p>Net debt is now down to a net cash position of more than $16 billion, which has numerous benefits. Tesla no longer needs to borrow money or issue stock to fund development. It can make acquisitions, it can invest that cash for additional income, or it can expand at whatever pace it deems necessary. That includes things like rapid expansion of gigafactories, development and refinement of new and existing models, etc. Cash used to be the single biggest issue for Tesla, but now is a massive source of strength.<p></p><p>How has Tesla built a fortress balance sheet? Free cash flow (&#34;FCF&#34;).</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d1a3f6a321d63b4d9ce1cf8d2a4cce6\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"/></p>TTM FCF is up to $7+ billion, and FCF margin is consistently in the area of 9% to 11% of revenue. These are terrific numbers, and judging by the build in cash on the balance sheet – which is happening simultaneously with factory expansion globally – it’s more than sufficient. Should these numbers decline over time, concern will reign again. But I see no cause for concern here.<p></p><p>Finally, let’s take a look at EPS estimates, which, like revenue, don’t exactly look that great.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/996a5c22b8f9ff33f0550deb49ce1a5b\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\"/></p>EPS estimates have come way down since late last year, but have plateaued. Is that it in terms of downward revisions? Time will tell, but anyone that’s familiar with my work knows I very much prefer rising EPS and revenue estimates. We don’t have that here, and that’s why I’m more cautious than I normally would be.<p></p><h2>A look at valuations</h2><p>Let’s start the valuation conversation with price to sales, which we have below for the past three years on a forward basis.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769ab0ae3f0e5ce9168c55cbb27da5e1\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"215\"/></p>Today’s forward P/S ratio is 5.7X, which is very near the bottom of the range. We could argue the days of 19X forward sales were frothy, and they almost certainly were. But the point stands that – from my perspective – Tesla is stronger than ever in many ways, while sporting what can only be considered a low forward P/S ratio.<p></p><p>Similarly, the forward P/E ratio just continues to fall, as the stock is seeing 46X forward earnings today, compared to an average of 110X in the past three years.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfed176bb7172af777a5dd39de6d86b9\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"214\"/></p>I’m not going to try to convince anyone that 48X forward earnings is cheap, because we all have our own feelings on relative value. I’m also not going to value Tesla like a traditional automaker, because it isn’t one, and that’s a pointless exercise. I will, however, value the stock against its own historical tendencies, and just like revenue, I cannot see how Tesla, Inc. stock shouldn’t be considered reasonably valued at worst here.<p></p><p>Do I think we’ll see 110X forward earnings again? No. Is there upside potential to 60X or 70X? If I’m right about lower interest rates and a tech/growth bull market, then absolutely there is. For me, that’s the consideration. If we get a bull market in tech and growth this year, more so than what we’ve already seen, stocks like Tesla have enormous upside potential. If I’m wrong, you have the $165 area where you can stop out and take your loss. From a risk/reward perspective, we’re looking at Tesla, Inc. perhaps $20 on the downside, but ~$60 to the upside given $4 in EPS estimates times a 60 forward P/E.</p><p>I can already hear the laughing of value investors scoffing at the idea, but I follow the money, and it looks to me like Tesla, Inc. is attracting it in a big way. I’m maintaining my buy rating on Tesla stock, but am refraining from a strong buy given some of the concerns listed above. The closer we get to $165, the better the buy.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It's Almost Time To Load Up On Tesla</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt's Almost Time To Load Up On Tesla\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-11 20:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4593228-its-almost-time-to-load-up-on-tesla><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla, Inc.'s massive rally has consolidated for months now.I see some reasons for caution at the moment, but remain longer-term bullish.Risk/reward here is terrific if you use stops prudently....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4593228-its-almost-time-to-load-up-on-tesla\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4593228-its-almost-time-to-load-up-on-tesla","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1116529806","content_text":"SummaryTesla, Inc.'s massive rally has consolidated for months now.I see some reasons for caution at the moment, but remain longer-term bullish.Risk/reward here is terrific if you use stops prudently.Growth stocks have been absolutely outstanding so far this year, after being truly awful for most of 2022. My viewpoint on the U.S. market for 2023 is quite bullish, and that’s predicated on growth and tech continuing to outperform. We’ll see consolidation periods and selloffs, of course, but I maintain that we’ll see much higher prices in the U.S. equity markets at the end of this year than where we started.Perhaps the most followed growth stock is Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), and the last time I covered the stock was about seven months ago. Much has occurred since then, to say the least. TSLA stock went to a well-publicized low of $101, but quite swiftly doubled off of that low. It’s one of the best performing stocks in the U.S. market so far this year, which is incredible given its size.The stock has been consolidating since the high, and we’ll touch on that below. However, so long as we hold the zone of support below, I’m maintaining my buy rating on Tesla. I’m not uber-bullish right now, but I still believe the medium and long-term trajectory is higher.Charting the courseWe’ll begin as we always do, with the chart. Tesla is in a consolidatory phase right now, having lost key moving average support in recent days.ChartStockChartsWe have three local tops, which I’ve connected with the blue line above. There are lower highs being made, and there’s very strong support in the area of ~$165, which has to hold for the bulls; if that level is lost, look out below for a potential test of $100. I don’t think that’s going to happen, but I would not recommend Tesla should it lose that support level.I mentioned the moving average support that was lost, and you can see where the rising 50-day simple moving average in blue above was used as support in early March. That line was lost a few days ago, and the stock fell further after losing it. This is not a bullish development and it’s giving me pause in terms of wanting to run out and buy the stock.The accumulation/distribution line still looks outstanding, and very bullish. It measures whether big institutional money is buying dips or selling rips, and we are firmly in the former category for Tesla. That’s a bullish sign that the stock is being accumulated, which tends to indicate longer-term bullishness.The 14-day RSI looks good as it continues to hold the 40 level, which is bull market behavior. The PPO is also testing the centerline, and we’ll need to see a bounce fairly soon to keep that bullishness alive.To sum this up, given the loss of the moving average support, and lower highs being made, I would not be surprised to see a test of the $165 area. Should that occur, Tesla would be a great buy as the risk/reward would be outstanding. For now, it’s in no-man’s land.The bottom panel has the stock’s correlation to the 10-year Treasury yield, which is key given the rate environment we’re in today. We can see Tesla’s long-term correlation to the 10-year Treasury is highly negative, which means 10-year Treasury yields and Tesla stock move in different directions. This makes perfect sense as higher rates mean lower valuations for growth stocks, and vice versa. Given that, it makes sense to look at yields, and we’ll do that now.ChartStockChartsThe 10-year is testing absolutely critical support in the area of 3.3%, and given the look of momentum, I would be absolutely shocked if we don’t get a breakdown of yield, which is the same thing as a breakout of price, given price and yield move inversely. Point being, if I’m right about the direction of rates, Tesla and other growth stocks should do very well indeed.Fundamentals a mixed bagWe all know the automakers are struggling with supply chain issues, and have been for some time. Of course, there are plenty of industries still grappling with the challenges that COVID presented across the globe. That means there are still wait times across the industry for various types of vehicles, dealer lots remain under-inventoried compared to pre-COVID norms, and rising loan interest rates that are crimping consumers’ ability to pay.It is, perhaps, no wonder that estimates have come down for Tesla from a revenue perspective in recent months.vehicle deliveriesInvestor presentationTesla has seen dips and pauses in vehicle delivery numbers in the past, but it appears to my eye that another one is a low probability. The company is seeing massive growth in China, as well as continuing to play around with U.S. pricing of its models. Much digital ink has been spilled about pricing actions from Tesla, but it seems pretty clear to me that these actions are being done out of a position of strength, not weakness.market shareInvestor presentationSo long as these lines move up and to the right, I’m not bothered with pricing actions. Every firm in every industry wants market share gains, and Tesla has them.revenue revisionsSeeking AlphaThat being said, revenue estimates are headed lower in the past several months, which is less than ideal. So long as revenue estimates are falling, the stock may struggle to make a significant move higher. However, if/when they do turn higher again, look out above in terms of the stock price.I normally would place more weight on revenue estimates, except that Tesla’s margin profile has continued to get better and better over time. What that means is that it is in a position to generate higher profitability on each dollar of revenue, and gives it the freedom to do things like cut prices. As I said, strength, not weakness.Below, we have gross and operating margins on a trailing-twelve-months basis for the past few years for some context.Both have moved sharply higher over time, but what’s interesting is that operating margins have continued to grow while gross margins have actually declined in recent quarters. In the first quarter of 2022, gross margins were 27.1% of revenue, while operating margins were 15.5%. That’s a difference of 11.6%. The most recent quarter (with fresh earnings due out in a couple of weeks) was 25.6% and 16.8%, respectively. That’s a difference of 8.8%, which means the gap between operating margin and gross margin is contracting fairly rapidly. That’s an excellent development as it means that each dollar of revenue is becoming more profitable, despite declining gross margins. Imagine what would happen should the company focus on building gross margins again.Regardless of whether the company continues to focus on market share, or decides to go after more margin, the future is bright and be in no doubt; pricing actions are being done from a position of strength.Cash is kingOne problem Tesla used to have – and one that I was very concerned about a few years ago – is cash burn. We all know Tesla expanded extremely rapidly over the past few years, which takes cash. However, not only does the company not burn cash any longer, but its balance sheet is absolutely outstanding.Net debt is now down to a net cash position of more than $16 billion, which has numerous benefits. Tesla no longer needs to borrow money or issue stock to fund development. It can make acquisitions, it can invest that cash for additional income, or it can expand at whatever pace it deems necessary. That includes things like rapid expansion of gigafactories, development and refinement of new and existing models, etc. Cash used to be the single biggest issue for Tesla, but now is a massive source of strength.How has Tesla built a fortress balance sheet? Free cash flow (\"FCF\").TTM FCF is up to $7+ billion, and FCF margin is consistently in the area of 9% to 11% of revenue. These are terrific numbers, and judging by the build in cash on the balance sheet – which is happening simultaneously with factory expansion globally – it’s more than sufficient. Should these numbers decline over time, concern will reign again. But I see no cause for concern here.Finally, let’s take a look at EPS estimates, which, like revenue, don’t exactly look that great.EPS estimates have come way down since late last year, but have plateaued. Is that it in terms of downward revisions? Time will tell, but anyone that’s familiar with my work knows I very much prefer rising EPS and revenue estimates. We don’t have that here, and that’s why I’m more cautious than I normally would be.A look at valuationsLet’s start the valuation conversation with price to sales, which we have below for the past three years on a forward basis.Today’s forward P/S ratio is 5.7X, which is very near the bottom of the range. We could argue the days of 19X forward sales were frothy, and they almost certainly were. But the point stands that – from my perspective – Tesla is stronger than ever in many ways, while sporting what can only be considered a low forward P/S ratio.Similarly, the forward P/E ratio just continues to fall, as the stock is seeing 46X forward earnings today, compared to an average of 110X in the past three years.I’m not going to try to convince anyone that 48X forward earnings is cheap, because we all have our own feelings on relative value. I’m also not going to value Tesla like a traditional automaker, because it isn’t one, and that’s a pointless exercise. I will, however, value the stock against its own historical tendencies, and just like revenue, I cannot see how Tesla, Inc. stock shouldn’t be considered reasonably valued at worst here.Do I think we’ll see 110X forward earnings again? No. Is there upside potential to 60X or 70X? If I’m right about lower interest rates and a tech/growth bull market, then absolutely there is. For me, that’s the consideration. If we get a bull market in tech and growth this year, more so than what we’ve already seen, stocks like Tesla have enormous upside potential. If I’m wrong, you have the $165 area where you can stop out and take your loss. From a risk/reward perspective, we’re looking at Tesla, Inc. perhaps $20 on the downside, but ~$60 to the upside given $4 in EPS estimates times a 60 forward P/E.I can already hear the laughing of value investors scoffing at the idea, but I follow the money, and it looks to me like Tesla, Inc. is attracting it in a big way. I’m maintaining my buy rating on Tesla stock, but am refraining from a strong buy given some of the concerns listed above. The closer we get to $165, the better the buy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941123323,"gmtCreate":1680065226163,"gmtModify":1680065230023,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The aim of tesla is&nbsp;","listText":"The aim of tesla is&nbsp;","text":"The aim of tesla is","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941123323","repostId":"1129951895","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955163987,"gmtCreate":1675284630050,"gmtModify":1676538989437,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ape together strong","listText":"Ape together strong","text":"Ape together strong","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955163987","repostId":"2308992038","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":86,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987307922,"gmtCreate":1667812325667,"gmtModify":1676537967477,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"If they say buy quickly sell","listText":"If they say buy quickly sell","text":"If they say buy quickly sell","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987307922","repostId":"1170042264","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1170042264","pubTimestamp":1667835121,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170042264?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-07 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Bears Could Get Hammered Here","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170042264","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla continues to demonstrate its ability to drive significant operating leverage in Q3 despite facing macro headwinds. The company deserves credit for such remarkable execution.We assess that","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Tesla continues to demonstrate its ability to drive significant operating leverage in Q3 despite facing macro headwinds. The company deserves credit for such remarkable execution.</li><li>We assess that the commodity and supply chain headwinds have improved significantly. Moving forward, it could help lift Tesla&#39;s ability to lift its operating profitability further.</li><li>We discuss why TSLA remains well-supported at its current levels. Also, TSLA bears need to remember that nothing falls in a straight line.</li><li>We explain the critical levels to watch and highlight why the opportunity for a speculative setup in TSLA is reasonable.</li><li>Revise from Hold to Speculative Buy.</li></ul><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p>Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) investors continue to monitor TSLA&#39;s consolidation with bated breath. We presented in our pre-earnings update reminding investors of the perils of TSLA&#39;s overvaluation as macro headwinds intensified.</p><p>Accordingly, TSLA has held on to its October lows relatively well, even though it didn&#39;t participate in the recent broad market recovery. We anticipated that the selling momentum could subside at the current levels, as nothing falls in a straight line.</p><p>Hence, we have been assessing whether a potential counter-trend opportunity is possible in the current context, even as high P/E stocks like TSLA come under significant pressure.</p><p>Our analysis indicates that TSLA is not likely to be re-rated to its 2021 levels in the near term, with the Fed still hawkish. However, the potential for TSLA to continue consolidating before staging a rally is still possible if CEO Elon Musk &amp; team can achieve a robust Q4.</p><p>Management&#39;s commentary on its Q3 earnings suggests that it could continue gaining incremental operating leverage as commodity costs continue to abate. Moreover, coupled with further easing in global supply chain pressures, it could help mitigate the impact of a subscale Giga Berlin and Texas ramp.</p><p>As such, we believe a speculative opportunity is possible even as the Fed turned increasingly hawkish.</p><p>Revising TSLA from Hold to Speculative Buy, with a price target (PT) of $280 (implying a potential upside of 30%).</p><p><b>All Eyes On Tesla&#39;s Operating Margins Through FY23</b></p><p>Management&#39;s commentary in its recent earnings suggested that Tesla could have experienced the peak in average commodity costs in Q3, as CFO Zach Kirkhorn articulated:</p><blockquote>At least of what we know so far, so peak on the commodity side in Q3, I say peak, hopefully, it stays the peak, hopefully, it starts to come down. There is a small amount of production that we&#39;re seeing going into our Q4 cost structure from steel and aluminum primarily, but it&#39;s less than 10% of the total increases we&#39;ve seen so far. (Tesla FQ3&#39;22 earnings call)</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3563c185c6cda508b044db61bc4fb105\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>SPGSCI price chart (weekly) (TradingView)</p><p>As seen above, the S&amp;P GSCI Commodity Index (SPGSCI) has fallen markedly from its March and June highs through October. Therefore, Tesla&#39;s observation is in the correct direction, even though the positive effects could be more meaningful only from FY23.</p><p>Still, it warrants investors to consider that Tesla&#39;s ability to drive significant operating leverage when costs are meaningfully lower should not be ruled out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/333f52140461bc1023fae54d07205ce2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Gross margins % and EBIT margins % consensus estimates (S&amp;P Cap IQ)</p><p>As seen above, Tesla recovered its EBIT margins remarkably in Q3, even though deliveries were lower than the consensus estimates. The leading EV maker posted a margin of 17.2% in Q3, up from Q2&#39;s 14.6%.</p><p>Its corporate gross margins also appeared to have stopped falling from Q2&#39;s 25%. Management highlighted its confidence to continue driving leverage, which is also in line with the revised consensus estimates (bullish).</p><p>Hence, it forbodes well for TSLA if the company could execute accordingly through FY23.</p><p>We believe the market is assessing whether the tailwinds in the global supply chain and weaker commodity prices could help lift Tesla&#39;s profitability moving ahead.</p><p>The critical issue is whether the market has priced in the macro challenges accordingly in the near term.</p><p><b>TSLA De-rating Still Underway</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81e7922409938765af6924f53d10683\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSLA NTM EBITDA multiples valuation trend (koyfin)</p><p>We think there&#39;s no question that the market has de-rated TSLA. It last traded at an NTM EBITDA of 25x, well below its 10Y mean of 52x. We explained in our previous article why TSLA bulls need to temper their target multiple moving forward, as Tesla&#39;s growth is expected to slow.</p><p>Furthermore, TSLA remains well ahead of the lows seen in 2019 and 2020. Therefore, TSLA is not just expensive relative to its industry peers or sector sectors but also not undervalued relative to its historical averages.</p><p>Notwithstanding, it doesn&#39;t necessarily mean that there are no opportunities to execute a mean-reversion setup if the reward/risk is reasonable.</p><p>If Tesla could continue improving its leverage as commodity tailwinds reverse, it could make up for slower revenue growth, even as its China deliveries suffered a MoM decline. Moreover, we believe Tesla cutting prices in China doesn&#39;t necessarily mean it&#39;s doom and gloom if it could take share from China&#39;s leading EV makers.</p><p>The critical question is how the market sees it.</p><p><b>Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b57f05b89c0c984c5660b41daecb9180\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSLA price chart (weekly) (TradingView)</p><p>For a high P/E stock (40x NTM earnings) compared to the S&amp;P 500&#39;s (SP500) (SPX) 16x forward P/E, TSLA&#39;s YTD total return of -32.5% doesn&#39;t look too bad. Compared to the Invesco QQQ ETF&#39;s (QQQ) YTD total return of -33%, with a forward P/E of 18.8x, TSLA performed admirably.</p><p>Therefore, even though we think TSLA is not cheap, we can still identify appropriate opportunities to execute on TSLA. We assess that such an opportunity is appropriate at the current levels. So here&#39;s how it goes.</p><p>It&#39;s clear that TSLA remains in a long-term uptrend but has lost its medium-term bullish bias. That&#39;s ok, as nothing falls in a straight line. Moreover, buying support appears to be robust at the current levels, as it consolidated over the past four weeks, undergirded by the lows in May 2022.</p><p>Furthermore, we postulate that buyers should be looking to defend its &#34;intermediate support 1&#34; vigorously if the sellers attempt to force a decisive downside break of the current levels. Coupled with the support of the 200-week moving average (purple line), we assess that momentum seems to be shifting back to the buyers.</p><p>Hence, the market seems confident in Musk &amp; team&#39;s execution in the near term, given the reversal of some critical tailwinds from H1&#39;22. As a result, we deduce that a near-term PT of $280 is appropriate for the current setup, proffering investors a potential upside of about 30%.</p><p>However, we urge investors to consider setting up appropriate risk management strategies if the bears managed to force downside beyond its &#34;intermediate support 1,&#34; as it would invalidate our thesis.</p><p>As the Fed remains hawkish, further macro headwinds could cause the market to anticipate significant stress on Tesla&#39;s operating leverage, behooving further value compression. As we highlighted earlier, TSLA is not undervalued.</p><p><i>Revising our rating from Hold to Speculative Buy.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Bears Could Get Hammered Here</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Bears Could Get Hammered Here\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-07 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4553345-tesla-bears-could-hammered><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla continues to demonstrate its ability to drive significant operating leverage in Q3 despite facing macro headwinds. The company deserves credit for such remarkable execution.We assess that...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4553345-tesla-bears-could-hammered\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4553345-tesla-bears-could-hammered","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170042264","content_text":"SummaryTesla continues to demonstrate its ability to drive significant operating leverage in Q3 despite facing macro headwinds. The company deserves credit for such remarkable execution.We assess that the commodity and supply chain headwinds have improved significantly. Moving forward, it could help lift Tesla's ability to lift its operating profitability further.We discuss why TSLA remains well-supported at its current levels. Also, TSLA bears need to remember that nothing falls in a straight line.We explain the critical levels to watch and highlight why the opportunity for a speculative setup in TSLA is reasonable.Revise from Hold to Speculative Buy.ThesisTesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) investors continue to monitor TSLA's consolidation with bated breath. We presented in our pre-earnings update reminding investors of the perils of TSLA's overvaluation as macro headwinds intensified.Accordingly, TSLA has held on to its October lows relatively well, even though it didn't participate in the recent broad market recovery. We anticipated that the selling momentum could subside at the current levels, as nothing falls in a straight line.Hence, we have been assessing whether a potential counter-trend opportunity is possible in the current context, even as high P/E stocks like TSLA come under significant pressure.Our analysis indicates that TSLA is not likely to be re-rated to its 2021 levels in the near term, with the Fed still hawkish. However, the potential for TSLA to continue consolidating before staging a rally is still possible if CEO Elon Musk & team can achieve a robust Q4.Management's commentary on its Q3 earnings suggests that it could continue gaining incremental operating leverage as commodity costs continue to abate. Moreover, coupled with further easing in global supply chain pressures, it could help mitigate the impact of a subscale Giga Berlin and Texas ramp.As such, we believe a speculative opportunity is possible even as the Fed turned increasingly hawkish.Revising TSLA from Hold to Speculative Buy, with a price target (PT) of $280 (implying a potential upside of 30%).All Eyes On Tesla's Operating Margins Through FY23Management's commentary in its recent earnings suggested that Tesla could have experienced the peak in average commodity costs in Q3, as CFO Zach Kirkhorn articulated:At least of what we know so far, so peak on the commodity side in Q3, I say peak, hopefully, it stays the peak, hopefully, it starts to come down. There is a small amount of production that we're seeing going into our Q4 cost structure from steel and aluminum primarily, but it's less than 10% of the total increases we've seen so far. (Tesla FQ3'22 earnings call)SPGSCI price chart (weekly) (TradingView)As seen above, the S&P GSCI Commodity Index (SPGSCI) has fallen markedly from its March and June highs through October. Therefore, Tesla's observation is in the correct direction, even though the positive effects could be more meaningful only from FY23.Still, it warrants investors to consider that Tesla's ability to drive significant operating leverage when costs are meaningfully lower should not be ruled out.Tesla Gross margins % and EBIT margins % consensus estimates (S&P Cap IQ)As seen above, Tesla recovered its EBIT margins remarkably in Q3, even though deliveries were lower than the consensus estimates. The leading EV maker posted a margin of 17.2% in Q3, up from Q2's 14.6%.Its corporate gross margins also appeared to have stopped falling from Q2's 25%. Management highlighted its confidence to continue driving leverage, which is also in line with the revised consensus estimates (bullish).Hence, it forbodes well for TSLA if the company could execute accordingly through FY23.We believe the market is assessing whether the tailwinds in the global supply chain and weaker commodity prices could help lift Tesla's profitability moving ahead.The critical issue is whether the market has priced in the macro challenges accordingly in the near term.TSLA De-rating Still UnderwayTSLA NTM EBITDA multiples valuation trend (koyfin)We think there's no question that the market has de-rated TSLA. It last traded at an NTM EBITDA of 25x, well below its 10Y mean of 52x. We explained in our previous article why TSLA bulls need to temper their target multiple moving forward, as Tesla's growth is expected to slow.Furthermore, TSLA remains well ahead of the lows seen in 2019 and 2020. Therefore, TSLA is not just expensive relative to its industry peers or sector sectors but also not undervalued relative to its historical averages.Notwithstanding, it doesn't necessarily mean that there are no opportunities to execute a mean-reversion setup if the reward/risk is reasonable.If Tesla could continue improving its leverage as commodity tailwinds reverse, it could make up for slower revenue growth, even as its China deliveries suffered a MoM decline. Moreover, we believe Tesla cutting prices in China doesn't necessarily mean it's doom and gloom if it could take share from China's leading EV makers.The critical question is how the market sees it.Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?TSLA price chart (weekly) (TradingView)For a high P/E stock (40x NTM earnings) compared to the S&P 500's (SP500) (SPX) 16x forward P/E, TSLA's YTD total return of -32.5% doesn't look too bad. Compared to the Invesco QQQ ETF's (QQQ) YTD total return of -33%, with a forward P/E of 18.8x, TSLA performed admirably.Therefore, even though we think TSLA is not cheap, we can still identify appropriate opportunities to execute on TSLA. We assess that such an opportunity is appropriate at the current levels. So here's how it goes.It's clear that TSLA remains in a long-term uptrend but has lost its medium-term bullish bias. That's ok, as nothing falls in a straight line. Moreover, buying support appears to be robust at the current levels, as it consolidated over the past four weeks, undergirded by the lows in May 2022.Furthermore, we postulate that buyers should be looking to defend its \"intermediate support 1\" vigorously if the sellers attempt to force a decisive downside break of the current levels. Coupled with the support of the 200-week moving average (purple line), we assess that momentum seems to be shifting back to the buyers.Hence, the market seems confident in Musk & team's execution in the near term, given the reversal of some critical tailwinds from H1'22. As a result, we deduce that a near-term PT of $280 is appropriate for the current setup, proffering investors a potential upside of about 30%.However, we urge investors to consider setting up appropriate risk management strategies if the bears managed to force downside beyond its \"intermediate support 1,\" as it would invalidate our thesis.As the Fed remains hawkish, further macro headwinds could cause the market to anticipate significant stress on Tesla's operating leverage, behooving further value compression. As we highlighted earlier, TSLA is not undervalued.Revising our rating from Hold to Speculative Buy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039789006,"gmtCreate":1646125986836,"gmtModify":1676534093795,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not simple","listText":"Not simple","text":"Not simple","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039789006","repostId":"1157633134","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157633134","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1646121601,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157633134?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-03-01 16:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Bounces Higher: Is The EV Maker Revving For A Breakout?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157633134","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares are trading higher Monday alongside other EV companies as the Russia","content":"<html><head></head><body><p></p><p><b>Tesla Inc.</b> (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares are trading higher Monday alongside other EV companies as the Russia-Ukraine conflict is causing European countries which depend on Russian oil to look to other places for their energy. The stock made a bounce off support a couple of days ago, has seen a strong bullish push since, and is now heading toward resistance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a997b38da76a3e0ea929f3e765e17973\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"378\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Tesla was up 7.48% to $870.43 at the close on Monday.</p><p><b>Tesla Daily Chart Analysis</b></p><p></p><ul><li>Shares are trading in a descending channel pattern, also known as a bullish flag pattern. The stock saw a strong bounce off the support trendline of the channel and has been heading higher since. If Tesla continues on this pace, it may see a breakout and a strong bullish push over the next few weeks.</li><li>The stock trades below the 50-day moving average (green) but above the 200-day moving average (blue). This indicates Tesla is going through a period of consolidation. The 50-day moving average may act as resistance, while the 200-day moving average may hold as support.</li><li>The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been pushing higher the past few days and now sits at 46. This shows that more buyers have been moving into the stock the past few days, although there still remains a slight surplus in the selling pressure overall.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/293f9d91f1e2b11bd0fd045ddf503dd8\" tg-width=\"1813\" tg-height=\"863\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>What’s Next For Tesla?</b></p><p></p><p>Tesla has seen a few days of bullish movement in a downward channel, and if it is able to continue, the stock could see a breakout. A breakout would cause a longer period of bullish movement to happen, and the stock could see new highs if it is able to break out and hold above the resistance in the pattern.</p><p>Bullish traders want to see the stock continue to form higher lows and break out of the pattern, which may cause a further bullish move to happen.</p><p>Bearish traders are looking to see the price be unable to cross above the resistance level and start falling lower. A break below the support level could cause the stock to begin a strong downward trend and a bearish market may ensue.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Bounces Higher: Is The EV Maker Revving For A Breakout?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Bounces Higher: Is The EV Maker Revving For A Breakout?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-03-01 16:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p></p><p><b>Tesla Inc.</b> (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares are trading higher Monday alongside other EV companies as the Russia-Ukraine conflict is causing European countries which depend on Russian oil to look to other places for their energy. The stock made a bounce off support a couple of days ago, has seen a strong bullish push since, and is now heading toward resistance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a997b38da76a3e0ea929f3e765e17973\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"378\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Tesla was up 7.48% to $870.43 at the close on Monday.</p><p><b>Tesla Daily Chart Analysis</b></p><p></p><ul><li>Shares are trading in a descending channel pattern, also known as a bullish flag pattern. The stock saw a strong bounce off the support trendline of the channel and has been heading higher since. If Tesla continues on this pace, it may see a breakout and a strong bullish push over the next few weeks.</li><li>The stock trades below the 50-day moving average (green) but above the 200-day moving average (blue). This indicates Tesla is going through a period of consolidation. The 50-day moving average may act as resistance, while the 200-day moving average may hold as support.</li><li>The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been pushing higher the past few days and now sits at 46. This shows that more buyers have been moving into the stock the past few days, although there still remains a slight surplus in the selling pressure overall.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/293f9d91f1e2b11bd0fd045ddf503dd8\" tg-width=\"1813\" tg-height=\"863\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>What’s Next For Tesla?</b></p><p></p><p>Tesla has seen a few days of bullish movement in a downward channel, and if it is able to continue, the stock could see a breakout. A breakout would cause a longer period of bullish movement to happen, and the stock could see new highs if it is able to break out and hold above the resistance in the pattern.</p><p>Bullish traders want to see the stock continue to form higher lows and break out of the pattern, which may cause a further bullish move to happen.</p><p>Bearish traders are looking to see the price be unable to cross above the resistance level and start falling lower. A break below the support level could cause the stock to begin a strong downward trend and a bearish market may ensue.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157633134","content_text":"Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares are trading higher Monday alongside other EV companies as the Russia-Ukraine conflict is causing European countries which depend on Russian oil to look to other places for their energy. The stock made a bounce off support a couple of days ago, has seen a strong bullish push since, and is now heading toward resistance.Tesla was up 7.48% to $870.43 at the close on Monday.Tesla Daily Chart AnalysisShares are trading in a descending channel pattern, also known as a bullish flag pattern. The stock saw a strong bounce off the support trendline of the channel and has been heading higher since. If Tesla continues on this pace, it may see a breakout and a strong bullish push over the next few weeks.The stock trades below the 50-day moving average (green) but above the 200-day moving average (blue). This indicates Tesla is going through a period of consolidation. The 50-day moving average may act as resistance, while the 200-day moving average may hold as support.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been pushing higher the past few days and now sits at 46. This shows that more buyers have been moving into the stock the past few days, although there still remains a slight surplus in the selling pressure overall.What’s Next For Tesla?Tesla has seen a few days of bullish movement in a downward channel, and if it is able to continue, the stock could see a breakout. A breakout would cause a longer period of bullish movement to happen, and the stock could see new highs if it is able to break out and hold above the resistance in the pattern.Bullish traders want to see the stock continue to form higher lows and break out of the pattern, which may cause a further bullish move to happen.Bearish traders are looking to see the price be unable to cross above the resistance level and start falling lower. A break below the support level could cause the stock to begin a strong downward trend and a bearish market may ensue.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":64,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9093403907,"gmtCreate":1643680455023,"gmtModify":1676533843180,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy CNY","listText":"Happy CNY","text":"Happy CNY","images":[{"img":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/a1aa3c3c6f62676f1cd1e82191fbe1a6","width":"720","height":"1280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093403907","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817113504,"gmtCreate":1630917445808,"gmtModify":1676530420197,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Definitely. A lot of demand will come in.","listText":"Definitely. A lot of demand will come in.","text":"Definitely. A lot of demand will come in.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/817113504","repostId":"1170878921","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170878921","pubTimestamp":1630915005,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170878921?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 15:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Who needs a bitcoin ETF, anyway? It may hold little value for investors now—Here’s why.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170878921","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Hi there, again!I’m flooded. There is at least 3 inches of water in my basement in New Jersey. All t","content":"<p><b>Hi there, again!</b>I’m flooded. There is at least 3 inches of water in my basement in New Jersey. All thanks to what the media (hey, that’s me) is referring to as the remnants of Hurricane Ida.</p>\n<p>Anyway, wading knee deep in water at 1 a.m. Eastern Time on Thursday, as I embarked upon the Sisyphean task of bailing bilge out of my basement got me to thinking about the flood of ETF applications for abitcoin-backed products that Gary Gensler’s Securities and Exchange Commission is wading through.</p>\n<p>We talked to Will Rhind of GraniteShares, which put in an application for a long and short bitcoin ETF back in 2017, but is taking a hard pass this time around. I’ll leave you to judge whether Rhind’s reasoning is sound. Rhind is founder and chief executive officer of ETF issuer GraniteShares in New York, which was established in 2016.</p>\n<p><b>You know what to do:</b>&nbsp;Send tips, or feedback, and find me on Twitter at @mdecambre to tell me what we need to be jumping on.</p>\n<p>Sign up here&nbsp;for ETF Wrap.</p>\n<p><b>Why do we need a bitcoin ETF</b></p>\n<p>There is a growing surge of bitcoin ETF applications for a futures-based product, after the SEC said that it would probably approve a bitcoinBTCUSDETF that holds bitcoin futuresBTC,rather than the crypto itself. SEC Chairman Gensler views futures as a more regulated area of the market and one where he thinks investor guardrails are more sound.</p>\n<p>Futures are usually a wager on an underlying commodity such as oilCL,or goldGC00and there is a growing bitcoin futures market run by CME Group.CMEBitcoin futures trade separately from the underlying asset and values don’t always align.</p>\n<p>Rhind told<i>ETF Wrap</i>during a Wednesday phone interview that there may not be any substantial point to the current rigmarole around trying to be the first to offer a bitcoin-backed ETF beyond the optics of it.</p>\n<p>Back in 2017, Rhind said the thesis for providing a bitcoin ETF was clear.</p>\n<p>“We felt bitcoin and other [crypto] currencies&nbsp;seemed like that was an asset that people wanted to trade and they couldn’t easily,”&nbsp;he said.</p>\n<p>That dynamic has changed substantially over the past three years, he argues, because access is easier for the average investor due to platforms like Coinbase GlobalCOINand other venues, such as PayPalPYPL,that offer exposure to bitcoin.</p>\n<p>“The best expression of an ETF has always been market access,” he said. “It can be lightening in a bottle when you combine a genuine need…there’s demand for a particular&nbsp;class and [the ETF],” addresses that need and unlocks value.</p>\n<p>“But by now this is no longer a market-access story,” Rhind said. “People can already get access.”</p>\n<p>The GraniteShares pro also said tax benefits that one might derive from a stock ETF wouldn’t likely be in play for a bitcoin futures ETF.</p>\n<p>“The chances are that the tax treatment&nbsp;will be the same as it would if you owned the underlying futures directly,” he said.</p>\n<p>John&nbsp;Hyland, CFA,&nbsp;and director of Matthews International, told ETF.com that so-called roll costs, as futures contracts expire, could also create idiosyncrasies in ETF prices and trading.</p>\n<p>“Bitcoin futures will likely always be in a mild contango, much like gold&nbsp;futures–a small, but not&nbsp;welcome, outcome,” Hyland told ETF.com in an interview. Contango is a condition where prices are higher for longer-dated contracts.</p>\n<p>“So even if a bitcoin futures fund is small and can easily trade their futures, they will still likely underperform the spot price every year if using futures,” Hyland told ETF.com in an interview.</p>\n<p>All of that is worth thinking about amid all the hullabaloo around a bitcoin ETF. Is it worth it, even if one gets approved by October?</p>\n<p>Some crypto purists also like to point to the paradox of owning a decentralized asset, such as bitcoin or EtherETHUSD,on a centralized platform, like a fund traded on a public exchange.</p>\n<p><b>The good and the bad</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e190f6c95fa1044cc1f421aa792ac2\" tg-width=\"801\" tg-height=\"513\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893a76e551af75b534550f5b045352ac\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data from Cboe Global Markets makes the case that the meme stock phenomenon that exploded into focus earlier this year, amid the rabid appetite for AMC Entertainment HoldingsAMCand GameStop Corp.GME,has been around for much longer.</p>\n<p>Cboe’s team, including summer intern, Jeff Nguyen, determined that the meme-stock phenomenon, characterized by stocks that move on social mentions and idea collaboration over social platforms, rather than fundamentals, has been going on since at least 2019 (see attached chart). The group created a program that scanned Reddit’s popular r/WallStreetBets forum for stock tickers and totaled the number of mentions for each ticker by day.</p>\n<p>“We then studied the 15 most discussed social media ‘meme’ stocks from January 2019 to present,” and the researchers compiled each stock’s total trading volume relative to the total composite volume, or TCV, to determine whether a significant trend was afoot.</p>\n<p><b>Let if flow</b></p>\n<p>The exchange-traded fund industry has seen $596 billion of net inflows&nbsp;year-to-date through August, extending its record-breaking year, CFRA points out.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66efe8059251cad3f530d91a5ba8389f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"345\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF and mutual fund research at CFRA says broad market global equity and U.S.&nbsp;ETFs&nbsp;contributed the most to those flows in the first eight months of 2021, with iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets&nbsp;ETFIEMG&nbsp;and Vanguard S&amp;P 500&nbsp;ETFVOOamong the leaders.</p>\n<p><b>August performance</b></p>\n<p>The good folks atBespoke Investment Grouphave a helpful table that provides a snapshot on how some U.S. and international ETFs performed in the month.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59cc8c3dbc5c2935462c00f443214b6\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"694\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">“The Nasdaq-100QQQhad the best August of the major US index&nbsp;ETFs, while the Dow 30DIAwas up the least. The Energy sectorXLEwas the only sector in the red for the month, while every other sector&nbsp;ETF&nbsp;gained more than 1%,” the researchers wrote.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who needs a bitcoin ETF, anyway? It may hold little value for investors now—Here’s why.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWho needs a bitcoin ETF, anyway? It may hold little value for investors now—Here’s why.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-06 15:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/who-needs-a-bitcoin-etf-anyway-it-may-hold-little-value-for-investors-nowheres-why-11630600714?mod=markets><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Hi there, again!I’m flooded. There is at least 3 inches of water in my basement in New Jersey. All thanks to what the media (hey, that’s me) is referring to as the remnants of Hurricane Ida.\nAnyway, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/who-needs-a-bitcoin-etf-anyway-it-may-hold-little-value-for-investors-nowheres-why-11630600714?mod=markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/who-needs-a-bitcoin-etf-anyway-it-may-hold-little-value-for-investors-nowheres-why-11630600714?mod=markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170878921","content_text":"Hi there, again!I’m flooded. There is at least 3 inches of water in my basement in New Jersey. All thanks to what the media (hey, that’s me) is referring to as the remnants of Hurricane Ida.\nAnyway, wading knee deep in water at 1 a.m. Eastern Time on Thursday, as I embarked upon the Sisyphean task of bailing bilge out of my basement got me to thinking about the flood of ETF applications for abitcoin-backed products that Gary Gensler’s Securities and Exchange Commission is wading through.\nWe talked to Will Rhind of GraniteShares, which put in an application for a long and short bitcoin ETF back in 2017, but is taking a hard pass this time around. I’ll leave you to judge whether Rhind’s reasoning is sound. Rhind is founder and chief executive officer of ETF issuer GraniteShares in New York, which was established in 2016.\nYou know what to do: Send tips, or feedback, and find me on Twitter at @mdecambre to tell me what we need to be jumping on.\nSign up here for ETF Wrap.\nWhy do we need a bitcoin ETF\nThere is a growing surge of bitcoin ETF applications for a futures-based product, after the SEC said that it would probably approve a bitcoinBTCUSDETF that holds bitcoin futuresBTC,rather than the crypto itself. SEC Chairman Gensler views futures as a more regulated area of the market and one where he thinks investor guardrails are more sound.\nFutures are usually a wager on an underlying commodity such as oilCL,or goldGC00and there is a growing bitcoin futures market run by CME Group.CMEBitcoin futures trade separately from the underlying asset and values don’t always align.\nRhind toldETF Wrapduring a Wednesday phone interview that there may not be any substantial point to the current rigmarole around trying to be the first to offer a bitcoin-backed ETF beyond the optics of it.\nBack in 2017, Rhind said the thesis for providing a bitcoin ETF was clear.\n“We felt bitcoin and other [crypto] currencies seemed like that was an asset that people wanted to trade and they couldn’t easily,” he said.\nThat dynamic has changed substantially over the past three years, he argues, because access is easier for the average investor due to platforms like Coinbase GlobalCOINand other venues, such as PayPalPYPL,that offer exposure to bitcoin.\n“The best expression of an ETF has always been market access,” he said. “It can be lightening in a bottle when you combine a genuine need…there’s demand for a particular class and [the ETF],” addresses that need and unlocks value.\n“But by now this is no longer a market-access story,” Rhind said. “People can already get access.”\nThe GraniteShares pro also said tax benefits that one might derive from a stock ETF wouldn’t likely be in play for a bitcoin futures ETF.\n“The chances are that the tax treatment will be the same as it would if you owned the underlying futures directly,” he said.\nJohn Hyland, CFA, and director of Matthews International, told ETF.com that so-called roll costs, as futures contracts expire, could also create idiosyncrasies in ETF prices and trading.\n“Bitcoin futures will likely always be in a mild contango, much like gold futures–a small, but not welcome, outcome,” Hyland told ETF.com in an interview. Contango is a condition where prices are higher for longer-dated contracts.\n“So even if a bitcoin futures fund is small and can easily trade their futures, they will still likely underperform the spot price every year if using futures,” Hyland told ETF.com in an interview.\nAll of that is worth thinking about amid all the hullabaloo around a bitcoin ETF. Is it worth it, even if one gets approved by October?\nSome crypto purists also like to point to the paradox of owning a decentralized asset, such as bitcoin or EtherETHUSD,on a centralized platform, like a fund traded on a public exchange.\nThe good and the bad\nData from Cboe Global Markets makes the case that the meme stock phenomenon that exploded into focus earlier this year, amid the rabid appetite for AMC Entertainment HoldingsAMCand GameStop Corp.GME,has been around for much longer.\nCboe’s team, including summer intern, Jeff Nguyen, determined that the meme-stock phenomenon, characterized by stocks that move on social mentions and idea collaboration over social platforms, rather than fundamentals, has been going on since at least 2019 (see attached chart). The group created a program that scanned Reddit’s popular r/WallStreetBets forum for stock tickers and totaled the number of mentions for each ticker by day.\n“We then studied the 15 most discussed social media ‘meme’ stocks from January 2019 to present,” and the researchers compiled each stock’s total trading volume relative to the total composite volume, or TCV, to determine whether a significant trend was afoot.\nLet if flow\nThe exchange-traded fund industry has seen $596 billion of net inflows year-to-date through August, extending its record-breaking year, CFRA points out.\nTodd Rosenbluth, head of ETF and mutual fund research at CFRA says broad market global equity and U.S. ETFs contributed the most to those flows in the first eight months of 2021, with iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETFIEMG and Vanguard S&P 500 ETFVOOamong the leaders.\nAugust performance\nThe good folks atBespoke Investment Grouphave a helpful table that provides a snapshot on how some U.S. and international ETFs performed in the month.\n“The Nasdaq-100QQQhad the best August of the major US index ETFs, while the Dow 30DIAwas up the least. The Energy sectorXLEwas the only sector in the red for the month, while every other sector ETF gained more than 1%,” the researchers wrote.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831359043,"gmtCreate":1629290915882,"gmtModify":1676529992854,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"90% of traders lose 90% of the time. Just hodl n wait","listText":"90% of traders lose 90% of the time. Just hodl n wait","text":"90% of traders lose 90% of the time. Just hodl n wait","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831359043","repostId":"1143139790","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":156,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890198299,"gmtCreate":1628085939811,"gmtModify":1703500976142,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"HODL","listText":"HODL","text":"HODL","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/890198299","repostId":"1195860961","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1195860961","pubTimestamp":1628060045,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195860961?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-04 14:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons Tesla Stock Is Currently Overvalued","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195860961","media":"Investing.com","summary":"Summary:\n\nAfter a remarkable rally last year, Tesla stock has lost its momentum.\nThe stock’s tepid r","content":"<p><b>Summary:</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>After a remarkable rally last year, Tesla stock has lost its momentum.</li>\n <li>The stock’s tepid reaction to impressive Q2 earnings shows that the bull case is weakening.</li>\n <li>Chip shortages, rising competition could keep Tesla under pressure this year.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Lately, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares seem to have lost their magic. The stock no longer reacts wildly to every positive development, disappointing investors who made fortunes while staying faithful to the world’s largest electric car-maker.</p>\n<p>The latest example of this dampening optimism came when Tesla announced itsquarterly earningson July 26. The company’s shares fell more than 4% after the earnings report, which handedly beat analysts’ consensus estimates.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae1d0e8a03c4269ff0c91bcaaf57e87d\" tg-width=\"1412\" tg-height=\"1172\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Tesla Weekly Chart.</span></p>\n<p>During the quarter, in which the California-based car-maker produced a record 201,250 vehicles, its profit more than tripled to $1.45 a share on an adjusted basis, beating the $0.97 average analysts had estimated. It was also the company’s eighth straight profitable quarter.</p>\n<p>Tesla's net income in the second quarter was roughly equal to the prior four quarters combined. The company reported revenue of roughly $12 billion for the period that ended June 30, nearly double the amount in the corresponding period a year earlier.</p>\n<p>Despite this strong earnings momentum, the stock didn’t jump the way it once did on every shred of positive news. TSLA is up less than 6% during the past five days as of yesterday's close. From its record high in January, Tesla shares are down almost 23%.</p>\n<p>So, what’s prompting investors to shun this market tech darling, even when its financials have shown a great turnaround?</p>\n<p>As we see it, there are both short- and long-term factors at play, causing Tesla enthusiasts to move to the sidelines. Here are three key catalysts that make this EV stalwart a risky bet right now, supporting our view that Tesla is not a buy in this environment:</p>\n<p><b>1. Chip Shortages</b></p>\n<p>The global chip shortages that have hurt production for many car-makers is beginning to pinch Tesla as well. During its earnings call, Tesla told investors that the company's future pace of growth won't be able to escape the ongoing supply-chain challenges.</p>\n<p>The company, for example, is struggling to introduce new models and secure parts for all its vehicles. Tesla again delayed its semi-trailer truck—already two years late—with first deliveries now slated for 2022. The company attributed the delay to supply-chain issues and limited battery-cell supply, as well as trying to focus on getting new factories online.</p>\n<p>The company’s plans for its first pickup truck, once expected to go to customers as early as this year, are also being affected by parts issues, said Chief Executive Elon Musk on an earnings call, without giving a revised first delivery date.</p>\n<p>How long chip-supply issues will persist is anybody’s guess right now. Chip-makers are trying to eke out more supply through changes to manufacturing processes and by opening up spare capacity to rivals, auditing customer orders to prevent hoarding and swapping over production lines, according to a recent report by theWall Street Journal. The bad news: there are no quick fixes, as building new production capacity usually takes years.</p>\n<p><b>2. Competition Heating Up</b></p>\n<p>Another threat challenging Tesla’s dominance in the EV market is coming from new sources of competition. Overall, five of the biggest automakers—Daimler(OTC:DDAIF), Ford (NYSE:F),General Motors(NYSE:GM), Stellantis (NYSE:STLA) and Volkswagen (OTC:VWAGY)—have each laid out plans to spend an average $6.5 billion annually on electrification efforts over the next five to 10 years, according toBloomberg.</p>\n<p>In April, VW launched its new Audi Q4 e-tron model to compete with Tesla in the fast-growing market of compact crossover SUVs. The Audi’s EV model is among a dozen vehicles the German auto-maker has planned, including VW’s ID.4 and an electric version of the Porsche Macan. VW is aiming to sell roughly 600,000 purely battery-powered cars this year.</p>\n<p>While traditional auto-makers, like Volkswagen and GM accelerate their EV efforts, smaller Chinese upstarts like Nio (NYSE:NIO) and Xpeng (NYSE:XPEV) are also vying for tech-savvy customers.</p>\n<p>According to media reports, GM’s EV plans will accelerate starting later this year as a Hummer pickup truck and Cadillac Lyriq sport utility vehicle begin rolling off the Detroit carmaker's production lines. An electric Chevy Silverado pickup is also on the way.</p>\n<p>In China, GM’s lower-priced Hongguang Mini EV, which it’s producing with two state-owned companies, has been a hit. More than a quarter of a million of the models have been sold since the vehicle launched last July, outperforming international rivals like Tesla’s Model 3 and local competitors, including Great Wall's (OTC:GWLLY) Ora Black Cat.</p>\n<p><b>3. Lofty Valuations</b></p>\n<p>Tesla’s valuation has also been a major source of friction among Wall Street’s top analysts. Those who see Tesla as a highly overpriced stock argue that the company has no room to make an error when its stock is priced for perfection.</p>\n<p>JPMorgan, which has an underweight rating on Tesla with a price target of $160, said in a recent note:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “Tesla’s high valuation leaves little room for less-than-perfect execution, as evidenced by a relatively tepid reaction in the aftermarket Monday to what was a fairly sizable EBITA beat, and we did see some less than perfect takeaways, including the official delay of the Tesla Semi into 2022 (albeit likely already almost entirely baked in); the seeming delay of the Cybertruck from late 2021 into 2022 (likely mostly baked in).”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Even after its recent selloff, Tesla has a $680-billion market capitalization, making it worth more than the combined value of GM, Ford, Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM) and Volkswagen.</p>\n<p>Bernstein Research, which has a sell rating on Tesla with a price target of $175, said in its note:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “We continue to struggle to justify TSLA’s valuation, which is higher than all other major automakers combined and appears to imply huge volume and industry leading profitability going forward, which is historically unprecedented.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>These bearish views, however, shouldn’t hide the fact that many analysts believe Tesla is more than a car company and its stock has more upside.</p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas says Tesla shouldn’t be valued as a legacy car-maker. As cars become more connected to the internet, that opens up a lot of other addressable markets and Tesla is well-positioned to take advantage of those new opportunities.</p>\n<p>Said Jonas in a Bloomberg report:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “In the process, it takes you away from comparing Tesla to car companies and should rather be compared to software-as-a-service companies.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>This divergence is evident from<i>Investing.com</i>poll of analystsregarding Tesla’s share price. Of 35 analysts, 15 have a buy rating on the stock, while 12 have neutral ratings and eight have a sell recommendation, with a 12-month consensus price target of $730.59.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e03552d09d605eee4bcfefd531f11080\" tg-width=\"1332\" tg-height=\"856\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chart: Investing.com</span></p>\n<p>For investors, who look to technical signals to help make short-term investment decisions, the most popular indicators—moving averages, oscillators and pivots—are currently providing a buy signal, especially after Tesla’s strong earnings beat.</p>\n<p><b>Bottom Line</b></p>\n<p>Tesla has remained the only credible player in the high-quality EV market in recent years, but that equation is changing quickly after the entry of new players and the massive spending plans being put forward by the legacy car-makers. These dynamics don’t justify the company’s current valuation, which assumes that Tesla will become the biggest seller of cars in the U.S., while competitors won’t be able to succeed.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Tesla Stock Is Currently Overvalued</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Tesla Stock Is Currently Overvalued\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-04 14:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.investing.com/analysis/3-reasons-tesla-stock-is-currently-overvalued-200595598><strong>Investing.com</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary:\n\nAfter a remarkable rally last year, Tesla stock has lost its momentum.\nThe stock’s tepid reaction to impressive Q2 earnings shows that the bull case is weakening.\nChip shortages, rising ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.investing.com/analysis/3-reasons-tesla-stock-is-currently-overvalued-200595598\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.investing.com/analysis/3-reasons-tesla-stock-is-currently-overvalued-200595598","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195860961","content_text":"Summary:\n\nAfter a remarkable rally last year, Tesla stock has lost its momentum.\nThe stock’s tepid reaction to impressive Q2 earnings shows that the bull case is weakening.\nChip shortages, rising competition could keep Tesla under pressure this year.\n\nLately, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares seem to have lost their magic. The stock no longer reacts wildly to every positive development, disappointing investors who made fortunes while staying faithful to the world’s largest electric car-maker.\nThe latest example of this dampening optimism came when Tesla announced itsquarterly earningson July 26. The company’s shares fell more than 4% after the earnings report, which handedly beat analysts’ consensus estimates.\nTesla Weekly Chart.\nDuring the quarter, in which the California-based car-maker produced a record 201,250 vehicles, its profit more than tripled to $1.45 a share on an adjusted basis, beating the $0.97 average analysts had estimated. It was also the company’s eighth straight profitable quarter.\nTesla's net income in the second quarter was roughly equal to the prior four quarters combined. The company reported revenue of roughly $12 billion for the period that ended June 30, nearly double the amount in the corresponding period a year earlier.\nDespite this strong earnings momentum, the stock didn’t jump the way it once did on every shred of positive news. TSLA is up less than 6% during the past five days as of yesterday's close. From its record high in January, Tesla shares are down almost 23%.\nSo, what’s prompting investors to shun this market tech darling, even when its financials have shown a great turnaround?\nAs we see it, there are both short- and long-term factors at play, causing Tesla enthusiasts to move to the sidelines. Here are three key catalysts that make this EV stalwart a risky bet right now, supporting our view that Tesla is not a buy in this environment:\n1. Chip Shortages\nThe global chip shortages that have hurt production for many car-makers is beginning to pinch Tesla as well. During its earnings call, Tesla told investors that the company's future pace of growth won't be able to escape the ongoing supply-chain challenges.\nThe company, for example, is struggling to introduce new models and secure parts for all its vehicles. Tesla again delayed its semi-trailer truck—already two years late—with first deliveries now slated for 2022. The company attributed the delay to supply-chain issues and limited battery-cell supply, as well as trying to focus on getting new factories online.\nThe company’s plans for its first pickup truck, once expected to go to customers as early as this year, are also being affected by parts issues, said Chief Executive Elon Musk on an earnings call, without giving a revised first delivery date.\nHow long chip-supply issues will persist is anybody’s guess right now. Chip-makers are trying to eke out more supply through changes to manufacturing processes and by opening up spare capacity to rivals, auditing customer orders to prevent hoarding and swapping over production lines, according to a recent report by theWall Street Journal. The bad news: there are no quick fixes, as building new production capacity usually takes years.\n2. Competition Heating Up\nAnother threat challenging Tesla’s dominance in the EV market is coming from new sources of competition. Overall, five of the biggest automakers—Daimler(OTC:DDAIF), Ford (NYSE:F),General Motors(NYSE:GM), Stellantis (NYSE:STLA) and Volkswagen (OTC:VWAGY)—have each laid out plans to spend an average $6.5 billion annually on electrification efforts over the next five to 10 years, according toBloomberg.\nIn April, VW launched its new Audi Q4 e-tron model to compete with Tesla in the fast-growing market of compact crossover SUVs. The Audi’s EV model is among a dozen vehicles the German auto-maker has planned, including VW’s ID.4 and an electric version of the Porsche Macan. VW is aiming to sell roughly 600,000 purely battery-powered cars this year.\nWhile traditional auto-makers, like Volkswagen and GM accelerate their EV efforts, smaller Chinese upstarts like Nio (NYSE:NIO) and Xpeng (NYSE:XPEV) are also vying for tech-savvy customers.\nAccording to media reports, GM’s EV plans will accelerate starting later this year as a Hummer pickup truck and Cadillac Lyriq sport utility vehicle begin rolling off the Detroit carmaker's production lines. An electric Chevy Silverado pickup is also on the way.\nIn China, GM’s lower-priced Hongguang Mini EV, which it’s producing with two state-owned companies, has been a hit. More than a quarter of a million of the models have been sold since the vehicle launched last July, outperforming international rivals like Tesla’s Model 3 and local competitors, including Great Wall's (OTC:GWLLY) Ora Black Cat.\n3. Lofty Valuations\nTesla’s valuation has also been a major source of friction among Wall Street’s top analysts. Those who see Tesla as a highly overpriced stock argue that the company has no room to make an error when its stock is priced for perfection.\nJPMorgan, which has an underweight rating on Tesla with a price target of $160, said in a recent note:\n\n “Tesla’s high valuation leaves little room for less-than-perfect execution, as evidenced by a relatively tepid reaction in the aftermarket Monday to what was a fairly sizable EBITA beat, and we did see some less than perfect takeaways, including the official delay of the Tesla Semi into 2022 (albeit likely already almost entirely baked in); the seeming delay of the Cybertruck from late 2021 into 2022 (likely mostly baked in).”\n\nEven after its recent selloff, Tesla has a $680-billion market capitalization, making it worth more than the combined value of GM, Ford, Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM) and Volkswagen.\nBernstein Research, which has a sell rating on Tesla with a price target of $175, said in its note:\n\n “We continue to struggle to justify TSLA’s valuation, which is higher than all other major automakers combined and appears to imply huge volume and industry leading profitability going forward, which is historically unprecedented.”\n\nThese bearish views, however, shouldn’t hide the fact that many analysts believe Tesla is more than a car company and its stock has more upside.\nMorgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas says Tesla shouldn’t be valued as a legacy car-maker. As cars become more connected to the internet, that opens up a lot of other addressable markets and Tesla is well-positioned to take advantage of those new opportunities.\nSaid Jonas in a Bloomberg report:\n\n “In the process, it takes you away from comparing Tesla to car companies and should rather be compared to software-as-a-service companies.”\n\nThis divergence is evident fromInvesting.compoll of analystsregarding Tesla’s share price. Of 35 analysts, 15 have a buy rating on the stock, while 12 have neutral ratings and eight have a sell recommendation, with a 12-month consensus price target of $730.59.\nChart: Investing.com\nFor investors, who look to technical signals to help make short-term investment decisions, the most popular indicators—moving averages, oscillators and pivots—are currently providing a buy signal, especially after Tesla’s strong earnings beat.\nBottom Line\nTesla has remained the only credible player in the high-quality EV market in recent years, but that equation is changing quickly after the entry of new players and the massive spending plans being put forward by the legacy car-makers. These dynamics don’t justify the company’s current valuation, which assumes that Tesla will become the biggest seller of cars in the U.S., while competitors won’t be able to succeed.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808157299,"gmtCreate":1627566433311,"gmtModify":1703492506951,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"donkey Kong","listText":"donkey Kong","text":"donkey Kong","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/808157299","repostId":"809493657","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":809493657,"gmtCreate":1627384774479,"gmtModify":1703488847004,"author":{"id":"3562498882012320","authorId":"3562498882012320","name":"Fartyclown","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98da8c7130a89aa96f8dfc0e63f22fd3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Every time the earning report&nbsp;comes out it falls.If only Elon can do push his own company stocks more than bitcoin.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Every time the earning report&nbsp;comes out it falls.If only Elon can do push his own company stocks more than bitcoin.&nbsp;","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Every time the earning report comes out it falls.If only Elon can do push his own company stocks more than bitcoin.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809493657","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126801245,"gmtCreate":1624549661787,"gmtModify":1703840198720,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the moooooon","listText":"To the moooooon","text":"To the moooooon","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18046f84d0f8fd69b63e9341a2e91e43","width":"1440","height":"3429"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126801245","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":196775940059152,"gmtCreate":1689076890383,"gmtModify":1689076893934,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/196775940059152","repostId":"2350150577","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2350150577","pubTimestamp":1689089244,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2350150577?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-07-11 23:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"CPI Preview: Disinflation Is Finished - Inflation To Start Rising Again","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2350150577","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"When inflation is rising, the Federal Funds rate  always is above the core PCE . But more importantly, near the peaks in inflation, the Fed would accelerate the hikes - well above the PCE inflation. That's how you win the race.For example, in March 1980, the Fed hiked from 14% to 17%, while core PCE was at a peak of 9.3%.And now let's look at the current situation. The Fed let inflation get ahead by far in 2022 by wrongly assuming that the inflationary spike was \"transitory.\" The Fed finally cau","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1040294062\">Inflation fight - The last 100 meters</h2><p>BIS Annual Economic Report 2023 discusses the macro challenges with &#34;last mile&#34; inflation fight, and states that &#34;the next phase of disinflation may become more difficult.&#34;</p><p>The concept of &#34;last mile&#34; is likely based on a marathon. I competed in 400M/800M events, so I&#39;m familiar with the &#34;last 100m&#34; concept - that&#39;s when the lactic acid kicks in and the legs get heavy, but you have to keep moving.</p><p>I was coached by Que McMaster who worked with the great Micheal Johnson (four Olympic gold medals) in his early days at Baylor, and he had a scientific approach to the &#34;last 100m&#34; problem. The data showed that you can sprint at max speed for 20-25 seconds without triggering lactic acid, so you start really fast, and then you switch into the &#34;glide mode.&#34; The secret was to switch from the &#34;glide mode&#34; to the &#34;finish mode&#34; efficiently, so you can cross the finish line at full speed - without ever triggering lactic acid. The strategy was to get ahead of the competition, and if they never catch up, you win, and if they do catch up, you have enough energy to switch into the higher gear in the last 100m and still win.</p><h2 id=\"id_2395002047\">The Fed is doing it all wrong</h2><p>The Fed is essentially in a race against inflation. Drawing lessons from McMaster&#39;s race strategy, the Fed is supposed to get ahead of inflation - and if inflation accelerates, shift into a more aggressive tightening mode until the clear victory. In fact, that was exactly the Fed&#39;s strategy in the 1970s/early 1980s. Here&#39;s the graph that shows core PCE inflation (in blue) and effective Federal Funds rate (in red):</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecb07668513c546a65cf80bab6bd6b69\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"273\"/></p><p>FRED</p><p>What do we see? When inflation is rising, the Federal Funds rate (red) always is above the core PCE (blue). But more importantly, near the peaks in inflation, the Fed would accelerate the hikes - well above the PCE inflation. That&#39;s how you win the race.</p><p>For example, in March 1980, the Fed hiked from 14% to 17%, while core PCE was at a peak of 9.3%.</p><p>And now let&#39;s look at the current situation. The Fed let inflation get ahead by far in 2022 by wrongly assuming that the inflationary spike was &#34;transitory.&#34; The Fed finally caught up with inflation in May 2023 - and then paused? What a mistake. Why? Because it appears that inflation is about to turn higher. It appears that inflation is being coached by McMaster. So, the &#34;last 100m&#34; of this race will be very interesting.</p><h2 id=\"id_1551354841\">Is inflation turning higher?</h2><p>The BLS will release the inflation data for June 2023. These are the expectations:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a2f496f0dbe4ef7c27b5d5e3f7f4e94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"186\"/></p><p>Trading Economics</p><p>So, the headline inflation is expected to sharply fall to 3.1%, but the month-over-month inflation is expected to rise to 0.3%. Core CPI is expected to slightly fall to 5%, while the month-over is also expected at 0.3%.</p><p>The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast predicts slightly higher numbers for June, with CPI at 3.2%, and core CPI at 5.1%, with a 0.4% month-over-month increase for both. Thus, we could get a higher-than-expected number for June.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c931382bcb41e7c48d63f5b6a122dc22\" tg-width=\"522\" tg-height=\"237\"/></p><p>Cleveland Fed</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31204265451c2e58dbfa0e9f64b130c\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"239\"/></p><p>Cleveland Fed</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>But, more importantly, Nowcast predicts higher CPI and core CPI for July at 3.6% and 5.2%, respectively. Even more worrisome is the constant 0.4% month-over-month increase for the core CPI, which is consistent with a steady 5% annual core inflation.</p><p>In fact, the annualized quarterly inflation for Q3 is expected to rise to 4.42% from 3% - that&#39;s a sharp upturn in inflation.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a799a5b1d21f1242625628e196af499\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"176\"/></p><p>Cleveland Fed</p><h2 id=\"id_990055891\">Why is inflation rising again?</h2><p>First, inflation is estimated as a 12-month year-over-year increase in prices - so each month you delete the month a year ago from the calculation. Well, last year there was a spike in energy/food prices due to the war in Ukraine, and the peak was in June, so the inflation number for July deletes the June 2022 number - that&#39;s the base effect for the headline CPI, and it looks like this (the big bar is out of the picture for July):</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7196f73499cdc312dfa5f10d6fcc74db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\"/></p><p>Trading Economics</p><p>And this is the month-over-month inflation for core CPI:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b926d12d7445010f0e24578383effa7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\"/></p><p>Trading Economics</p><p>The most important data to look at is the fact that over the last six months, the month-over-month core CPI inflation was steady at 0.4%, which is expected to hold for at least the next two months, based on Nowcast. That&#39;s consistent with over 5% annual core CPI - while the target is 2%.</p><p>So, once the base effects are out, we are facing the &#34;last mile&#34; or the &#34;last 100m,&#34; and BIS said this will be a very difficult race. Specifically, BIS is very concerned that there could be a price-wage inflationary spiral in making. When looking at the totality of data, BIS concludes that there&#39;s a high risk of a transition to the 1970s-like high-inflationary mode. More info here.</p><h2 id=\"id_2346461144\">What does the Fed need to do now?</h2><p>The Fed started the race from behind and has been trying to catch up. In order to win the race, the Fed needs to accelerate the monetary policy tightening, well above what is currently expected. Just look at the chart provided above, the red line has to be well above the blue line, there&#39;s no other way. In other words, the Fed might need to surprise the market with a 50bpt hike in July. That&#39;s the transition to the &#34;finish mode,&#34; and that&#39;s what worked in the 1970s. The Taylor rule tool also suggests that the Federal Funds rate should currently be somewhere between 6.6-7.2%.</p><p>The race is over when we see a consistent 0.1%, 0.2% in core PCE for several months. Unfortunately, this might require a very sharp increase in the unemployment rate, possibly above 6%-7%.</p><h2 id=\"id_3478179582\">Implications</h2><p>This is the Fed&#39;s strategy for the &#34;last mile&#34; or &#34;last 100m&#34; of the inflation race: stay behind and wait for inflation to get &#34;tired,&#34; or wait for inflation to get &#34;the lactic acid&#34; and just die out.</p><p>This strategy is unlikely to work, and the Fed will be forced to be more aggressive - to shift into the &#34;finish mode.&#34; However, this will likely cause a deep recession. In fact, there are already signs that growth is stalling or contracting based on the real GDI measure, and yet inflation is expected to turn higher after the June reading.</p><p>The BIS report is particularly worried about the housing sector if the Fed is forced to hike 200bpt above the May rate to above 6%. In this scenario, the housing prices would drop below their 2012 level or more than 33% from the peak. This might be required to bring inflation to 2%.</p><p>The financial sector (XLF) is at the center of the upcoming crisis, given the expected fall in housing prices, and the expected solvency issues in the commercial real estate (XLRE).</p><p>Regional banks (KRE) are likely to be most vulnerable, given their heavy exposure to commercial real estate and mortgages. In addition, the further expected increase in the Federal Funds rate will continue to increase their cost of capital and accelerate the deposit outflows. Thus, it&#39;s likely that many more regional banks would fail.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CPI Preview: Disinflation Is Finished - Inflation To Start Rising Again</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCPI Preview: Disinflation Is Finished - Inflation To Start Rising Again\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-11 23:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4616102-cpi-preview-disinflation-finished-inflation-to-start-rising-again><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Inflation fight - The last 100 metersBIS Annual Economic Report 2023 discusses the macro challenges with \"last mile\" inflation fight, and states that \"the next phase of disinflation may become more ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4616102-cpi-preview-disinflation-finished-inflation-to-start-rising-again\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4616102-cpi-preview-disinflation-finished-inflation-to-start-rising-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2350150577","content_text":"Inflation fight - The last 100 metersBIS Annual Economic Report 2023 discusses the macro challenges with \"last mile\" inflation fight, and states that \"the next phase of disinflation may become more difficult.\"The concept of \"last mile\" is likely based on a marathon. I competed in 400M/800M events, so I'm familiar with the \"last 100m\" concept - that's when the lactic acid kicks in and the legs get heavy, but you have to keep moving.I was coached by Que McMaster who worked with the great Micheal Johnson (four Olympic gold medals) in his early days at Baylor, and he had a scientific approach to the \"last 100m\" problem. The data showed that you can sprint at max speed for 20-25 seconds without triggering lactic acid, so you start really fast, and then you switch into the \"glide mode.\" The secret was to switch from the \"glide mode\" to the \"finish mode\" efficiently, so you can cross the finish line at full speed - without ever triggering lactic acid. The strategy was to get ahead of the competition, and if they never catch up, you win, and if they do catch up, you have enough energy to switch into the higher gear in the last 100m and still win.The Fed is doing it all wrongThe Fed is essentially in a race against inflation. Drawing lessons from McMaster's race strategy, the Fed is supposed to get ahead of inflation - and if inflation accelerates, shift into a more aggressive tightening mode until the clear victory. In fact, that was exactly the Fed's strategy in the 1970s/early 1980s. Here's the graph that shows core PCE inflation (in blue) and effective Federal Funds rate (in red):FREDWhat do we see? When inflation is rising, the Federal Funds rate (red) always is above the core PCE (blue). But more importantly, near the peaks in inflation, the Fed would accelerate the hikes - well above the PCE inflation. That's how you win the race.For example, in March 1980, the Fed hiked from 14% to 17%, while core PCE was at a peak of 9.3%.And now let's look at the current situation. The Fed let inflation get ahead by far in 2022 by wrongly assuming that the inflationary spike was \"transitory.\" The Fed finally caught up with inflation in May 2023 - and then paused? What a mistake. Why? Because it appears that inflation is about to turn higher. It appears that inflation is being coached by McMaster. So, the \"last 100m\" of this race will be very interesting.Is inflation turning higher?The BLS will release the inflation data for June 2023. These are the expectations:Trading EconomicsSo, the headline inflation is expected to sharply fall to 3.1%, but the month-over-month inflation is expected to rise to 0.3%. Core CPI is expected to slightly fall to 5%, while the month-over is also expected at 0.3%.The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast predicts slightly higher numbers for June, with CPI at 3.2%, and core CPI at 5.1%, with a 0.4% month-over-month increase for both. Thus, we could get a higher-than-expected number for June.Cleveland FedCleveland FedBut, more importantly, Nowcast predicts higher CPI and core CPI for July at 3.6% and 5.2%, respectively. Even more worrisome is the constant 0.4% month-over-month increase for the core CPI, which is consistent with a steady 5% annual core inflation.In fact, the annualized quarterly inflation for Q3 is expected to rise to 4.42% from 3% - that's a sharp upturn in inflation.Cleveland FedWhy is inflation rising again?First, inflation is estimated as a 12-month year-over-year increase in prices - so each month you delete the month a year ago from the calculation. Well, last year there was a spike in energy/food prices due to the war in Ukraine, and the peak was in June, so the inflation number for July deletes the June 2022 number - that's the base effect for the headline CPI, and it looks like this (the big bar is out of the picture for July):Trading EconomicsAnd this is the month-over-month inflation for core CPI:Trading EconomicsThe most important data to look at is the fact that over the last six months, the month-over-month core CPI inflation was steady at 0.4%, which is expected to hold for at least the next two months, based on Nowcast. That's consistent with over 5% annual core CPI - while the target is 2%.So, once the base effects are out, we are facing the \"last mile\" or the \"last 100m,\" and BIS said this will be a very difficult race. Specifically, BIS is very concerned that there could be a price-wage inflationary spiral in making. When looking at the totality of data, BIS concludes that there's a high risk of a transition to the 1970s-like high-inflationary mode. More info here.What does the Fed need to do now?The Fed started the race from behind and has been trying to catch up. In order to win the race, the Fed needs to accelerate the monetary policy tightening, well above what is currently expected. Just look at the chart provided above, the red line has to be well above the blue line, there's no other way. In other words, the Fed might need to surprise the market with a 50bpt hike in July. That's the transition to the \"finish mode,\" and that's what worked in the 1970s. The Taylor rule tool also suggests that the Federal Funds rate should currently be somewhere between 6.6-7.2%.The race is over when we see a consistent 0.1%, 0.2% in core PCE for several months. Unfortunately, this might require a very sharp increase in the unemployment rate, possibly above 6%-7%.ImplicationsThis is the Fed's strategy for the \"last mile\" or \"last 100m\" of the inflation race: stay behind and wait for inflation to get \"tired,\" or wait for inflation to get \"the lactic acid\" and just die out.This strategy is unlikely to work, and the Fed will be forced to be more aggressive - to shift into the \"finish mode.\" However, this will likely cause a deep recession. In fact, there are already signs that growth is stalling or contracting based on the real GDI measure, and yet inflation is expected to turn higher after the June reading.The BIS report is particularly worried about the housing sector if the Fed is forced to hike 200bpt above the May rate to above 6%. In this scenario, the housing prices would drop below their 2012 level or more than 33% from the peak. This might be required to bring inflation to 2%.The financial sector (XLF) is at the center of the upcoming crisis, given the expected fall in housing prices, and the expected solvency issues in the commercial real estate (XLRE).Regional banks (KRE) are likely to be most vulnerable, given their heavy exposure to commercial real estate and mortgages. In addition, the further expected increase in the Federal Funds rate will continue to increase their cost of capital and accelerate the deposit outflows. Thus, it's likely that many more regional banks would fail.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942203686,"gmtCreate":1681223486345,"gmtModify":1681223489892,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy high Sell low","listText":"Buy high Sell low","text":"Buy high Sell low","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942203686","repostId":"1116529806","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1116529806","pubTimestamp":1681216371,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116529806?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-04-11 20:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"It's Almost Time To Load Up On Tesla","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116529806","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla, Inc.'s massive rally has consolidated for months now.I see some reasons for caution at","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><ul><li><p>Tesla, Inc.&#39;s massive rally has consolidated for months now.</p></li><li><p>I see some reasons for caution at the moment, but remain longer-term bullish.</p></li><li><p>Risk/reward here is terrific if you use stops prudently.</p></li></ul><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e94c2a45c7301b8ea00c807d826e5dd\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"563\"/></p>Growth stocks have been absolutely outstanding so far this year, after being truly awful for most of 2022. My viewpoint on the U.S. market for 2023 is quite bullish, and that’s predicated on growth and tech continuing to outperform. We’ll see consolidation periods and selloffs, of course, but I maintain that we’ll see much higher prices in the U.S. equity markets at the end of this year than where we started.<p></p><p>Perhaps the most followed growth stock is <strong>Tesla, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:TSLA), and the last time I covered the stock was about seven months ago. Much has occurred since then, to say the least. TSLA stock went to a well-publicized low of $101, but quite swiftly <em>doubled</em> off of that low. It’s one of the best performing stocks in the U.S. market so far this year, which is incredible given its size.</p><p>The stock has been consolidating since the high, and we’ll touch on that below. However, so long as we hold the zone of support below, I’m maintaining my buy rating on Tesla. I’m not uber-bullish right now, but I still believe the medium and long-term trajectory is higher.</p><h2>Charting the course</h2><p>We’ll begin as we always do, with the chart. Tesla is in a consolidatory phase right now, having lost key moving average support in recent days.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bd969b308166473c523851a9fe245ed\" alt=\"Chart\" title=\"Chart\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"714\"/><span>Chart</span></p><p></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>StockCharts</strong></p><p></p><p>We have three local tops, which I’ve connected with the blue line above. There are lower highs being made, and there’s very strong support in the area of ~$165, which <em>has </em>to hold for the bulls; if that level is lost, look out below for a potential test of $100. I don’t think that’s going to happen, but I would not recommend Tesla should it lose that support level.</p><p>I mentioned the moving average support that was lost, and you can see where the rising 50-day simple moving average in blue above was used as support in early March. That line was lost a few days ago, and the stock fell further after losing it. This is not a bullish development and it’s giving me pause in terms of wanting to run out and buy the stock.</p><p>The accumulation/distribution line still looks outstanding, and very bullish. It measures whether big institutional money is buying dips or selling rips, and we are firmly in the former category for Tesla. That’s a bullish sign that the stock is being accumulated, which tends to indicate longer-term bullishness.</p><p>The 14-day RSI looks good as it continues to hold the 40 level, which is bull market behavior. The PPO is also testing the centerline, and we’ll need to see a bounce fairly soon to keep that bullishness alive.</p><p>To sum this up, given the loss of the moving average support, and lower highs being made, I would not be surprised to see a test of the $165 area. Should that occur, Tesla would be a great buy as the risk/reward would be outstanding. For now, it’s in no-man’s land.</p><p>The bottom panel has the stock’s correlation to the 10-year Treasury yield, which is key given the rate environment we’re in today. We can see Tesla’s long-term correlation to the 10-year Treasury is highly negative, which means 10-year Treasury yields and Tesla stock move in different directions. This makes perfect sense as higher rates mean lower valuations for growth stocks, and vice versa. Given that, it makes sense to look at yields, and we’ll do that now.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df23caaa9d1b39024f979a6cda4535bb\" alt=\"Chart\" title=\"Chart\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"517\"/><span>Chart</span></p><p></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>StockCharts</strong></p><p></p><p>The 10-year is testing absolutely critical support in the area of 3.3%, and given the look of momentum, I would be absolutely shocked if we don’t get a breakdown of yield, which is the same thing as a breakout of price, given price and yield move inversely. Point being, if I’m right about the direction of rates, Tesla and other growth stocks should do very well indeed.</p><h2>Fundamentals a mixed bag</h2><p>We all know the automakers are struggling with supply chain issues, and have been for some time. Of course, there are plenty of industries still grappling with the challenges that COVID presented across the globe. That means there are still wait times across the industry for various types of vehicles, dealer lots remain under-inventoried compared to pre-COVID norms, and rising loan interest rates that are crimping consumers’ ability to pay.</p><p>It is, perhaps, no wonder that estimates have come down for Tesla from a revenue perspective in recent months.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6db56943296955b720ccc22605349e2\" alt=\"vehicle deliveries\" title=\"vehicle deliveries\" tg-width=\"488\" tg-height=\"663\"/><span>vehicle deliveries</span></p><p></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Investor presentation</strong></p><p></p><p>Tesla has seen dips and pauses in vehicle delivery numbers in the past, but it appears to my eye that another one is a low probability. The company is seeing massive growth in China, as well as continuing to play around with U.S. pricing of its models. Much digital ink has been spilled about pricing actions from Tesla, but it seems pretty clear to me that these actions are being done out of a position of strength, not weakness.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3aa5e5e33f385e932756392920212de\" alt=\"market share\" title=\"market share\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\"/><span>market share</span></p><p></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Investor presentation</strong></p><p></p><p>So long as these lines move up and to the right, I’m not bothered with pricing actions. Every firm in every industry wants market share gains, and Tesla has them.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd8229ac2f452d6c4265fab68ea84bb9\" alt=\"revenue revisions\" title=\"revenue revisions\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"220\"/><span>revenue revisions</span></p><p></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></p><p></p><p>That being said, revenue estimates are headed lower in the past several months, which is less than ideal. So long as revenue estimates are falling, the stock may struggle to make a significant move higher. However, if/when they do turn higher again, look out above in terms of the stock price.</p><p>I normally would place more weight on revenue estimates, except that Tesla’s margin profile has continued to get better and better over time. What that means is that it is in a position to generate higher profitability on each dollar of revenue, and gives it the freedom to do things like cut prices. As I said, strength, not weakness.</p><p>Below, we have gross and operating margins on a trailing-twelve-months basis for the past few years for some context.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/16a5716422a4230b2d626cd03ab40b35\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"185\"/></p>Both have moved sharply higher over time, but what’s interesting is that operating margins have continued to grow while gross margins have actually declined in recent quarters. In the first quarter of 2022, gross margins were 27.1% of revenue, while operating margins were 15.5%. That’s a difference of 11.6%. The most recent quarter (with fresh earnings due out in a couple of weeks) was 25.6% and 16.8%, respectively. That’s a difference of 8.8%, which means the gap between operating margin and gross margin is contracting fairly rapidly. That’s an excellent development as it means that each dollar of revenue is becoming more profitable, <em>despite declining gross margins</em>. Imagine what would happen should the company focus on building gross margins again.<p></p><p>Regardless of whether the company continues to focus on market share, or decides to go after more margin, the future is bright and be in no doubt; pricing actions are being done from a position of strength.</p><h2>Cash is king</h2><p>One problem Tesla used to have – and one that I was very concerned about a few years ago – is cash burn. We all know Tesla expanded extremely rapidly over the past few years, which takes cash. However, not only does the company not burn cash any longer, but its balance sheet is absolutely outstanding.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c719393fec512ae018e4c836fbc4def\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"184\"/></p>Net debt is now down to a net cash position of more than $16 billion, which has numerous benefits. Tesla no longer needs to borrow money or issue stock to fund development. It can make acquisitions, it can invest that cash for additional income, or it can expand at whatever pace it deems necessary. That includes things like rapid expansion of gigafactories, development and refinement of new and existing models, etc. Cash used to be the single biggest issue for Tesla, but now is a massive source of strength.<p></p><p>How has Tesla built a fortress balance sheet? Free cash flow (&#34;FCF&#34;).</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d1a3f6a321d63b4d9ce1cf8d2a4cce6\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"/></p>TTM FCF is up to $7+ billion, and FCF margin is consistently in the area of 9% to 11% of revenue. These are terrific numbers, and judging by the build in cash on the balance sheet – which is happening simultaneously with factory expansion globally – it’s more than sufficient. Should these numbers decline over time, concern will reign again. But I see no cause for concern here.<p></p><p>Finally, let’s take a look at EPS estimates, which, like revenue, don’t exactly look that great.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/996a5c22b8f9ff33f0550deb49ce1a5b\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\"/></p>EPS estimates have come way down since late last year, but have plateaued. Is that it in terms of downward revisions? Time will tell, but anyone that’s familiar with my work knows I very much prefer rising EPS and revenue estimates. We don’t have that here, and that’s why I’m more cautious than I normally would be.<p></p><h2>A look at valuations</h2><p>Let’s start the valuation conversation with price to sales, which we have below for the past three years on a forward basis.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769ab0ae3f0e5ce9168c55cbb27da5e1\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"215\"/></p>Today’s forward P/S ratio is 5.7X, which is very near the bottom of the range. We could argue the days of 19X forward sales were frothy, and they almost certainly were. But the point stands that – from my perspective – Tesla is stronger than ever in many ways, while sporting what can only be considered a low forward P/S ratio.<p></p><p>Similarly, the forward P/E ratio just continues to fall, as the stock is seeing 46X forward earnings today, compared to an average of 110X in the past three years.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfed176bb7172af777a5dd39de6d86b9\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"214\"/></p>I’m not going to try to convince anyone that 48X forward earnings is cheap, because we all have our own feelings on relative value. I’m also not going to value Tesla like a traditional automaker, because it isn’t one, and that’s a pointless exercise. I will, however, value the stock against its own historical tendencies, and just like revenue, I cannot see how Tesla, Inc. stock shouldn’t be considered reasonably valued at worst here.<p></p><p>Do I think we’ll see 110X forward earnings again? No. Is there upside potential to 60X or 70X? If I’m right about lower interest rates and a tech/growth bull market, then absolutely there is. For me, that’s the consideration. If we get a bull market in tech and growth this year, more so than what we’ve already seen, stocks like Tesla have enormous upside potential. If I’m wrong, you have the $165 area where you can stop out and take your loss. From a risk/reward perspective, we’re looking at Tesla, Inc. perhaps $20 on the downside, but ~$60 to the upside given $4 in EPS estimates times a 60 forward P/E.</p><p>I can already hear the laughing of value investors scoffing at the idea, but I follow the money, and it looks to me like Tesla, Inc. is attracting it in a big way. I’m maintaining my buy rating on Tesla stock, but am refraining from a strong buy given some of the concerns listed above. The closer we get to $165, the better the buy.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It's Almost Time To Load Up On Tesla</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt's Almost Time To Load Up On Tesla\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-11 20:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4593228-its-almost-time-to-load-up-on-tesla><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla, Inc.'s massive rally has consolidated for months now.I see some reasons for caution at the moment, but remain longer-term bullish.Risk/reward here is terrific if you use stops prudently....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4593228-its-almost-time-to-load-up-on-tesla\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4593228-its-almost-time-to-load-up-on-tesla","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1116529806","content_text":"SummaryTesla, Inc.'s massive rally has consolidated for months now.I see some reasons for caution at the moment, but remain longer-term bullish.Risk/reward here is terrific if you use stops prudently.Growth stocks have been absolutely outstanding so far this year, after being truly awful for most of 2022. My viewpoint on the U.S. market for 2023 is quite bullish, and that’s predicated on growth and tech continuing to outperform. We’ll see consolidation periods and selloffs, of course, but I maintain that we’ll see much higher prices in the U.S. equity markets at the end of this year than where we started.Perhaps the most followed growth stock is Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), and the last time I covered the stock was about seven months ago. Much has occurred since then, to say the least. TSLA stock went to a well-publicized low of $101, but quite swiftly doubled off of that low. It’s one of the best performing stocks in the U.S. market so far this year, which is incredible given its size.The stock has been consolidating since the high, and we’ll touch on that below. However, so long as we hold the zone of support below, I’m maintaining my buy rating on Tesla. I’m not uber-bullish right now, but I still believe the medium and long-term trajectory is higher.Charting the courseWe’ll begin as we always do, with the chart. Tesla is in a consolidatory phase right now, having lost key moving average support in recent days.ChartStockChartsWe have three local tops, which I’ve connected with the blue line above. There are lower highs being made, and there’s very strong support in the area of ~$165, which has to hold for the bulls; if that level is lost, look out below for a potential test of $100. I don’t think that’s going to happen, but I would not recommend Tesla should it lose that support level.I mentioned the moving average support that was lost, and you can see where the rising 50-day simple moving average in blue above was used as support in early March. That line was lost a few days ago, and the stock fell further after losing it. This is not a bullish development and it’s giving me pause in terms of wanting to run out and buy the stock.The accumulation/distribution line still looks outstanding, and very bullish. It measures whether big institutional money is buying dips or selling rips, and we are firmly in the former category for Tesla. That’s a bullish sign that the stock is being accumulated, which tends to indicate longer-term bullishness.The 14-day RSI looks good as it continues to hold the 40 level, which is bull market behavior. The PPO is also testing the centerline, and we’ll need to see a bounce fairly soon to keep that bullishness alive.To sum this up, given the loss of the moving average support, and lower highs being made, I would not be surprised to see a test of the $165 area. Should that occur, Tesla would be a great buy as the risk/reward would be outstanding. For now, it’s in no-man’s land.The bottom panel has the stock’s correlation to the 10-year Treasury yield, which is key given the rate environment we’re in today. We can see Tesla’s long-term correlation to the 10-year Treasury is highly negative, which means 10-year Treasury yields and Tesla stock move in different directions. This makes perfect sense as higher rates mean lower valuations for growth stocks, and vice versa. Given that, it makes sense to look at yields, and we’ll do that now.ChartStockChartsThe 10-year is testing absolutely critical support in the area of 3.3%, and given the look of momentum, I would be absolutely shocked if we don’t get a breakdown of yield, which is the same thing as a breakout of price, given price and yield move inversely. Point being, if I’m right about the direction of rates, Tesla and other growth stocks should do very well indeed.Fundamentals a mixed bagWe all know the automakers are struggling with supply chain issues, and have been for some time. Of course, there are plenty of industries still grappling with the challenges that COVID presented across the globe. That means there are still wait times across the industry for various types of vehicles, dealer lots remain under-inventoried compared to pre-COVID norms, and rising loan interest rates that are crimping consumers’ ability to pay.It is, perhaps, no wonder that estimates have come down for Tesla from a revenue perspective in recent months.vehicle deliveriesInvestor presentationTesla has seen dips and pauses in vehicle delivery numbers in the past, but it appears to my eye that another one is a low probability. The company is seeing massive growth in China, as well as continuing to play around with U.S. pricing of its models. Much digital ink has been spilled about pricing actions from Tesla, but it seems pretty clear to me that these actions are being done out of a position of strength, not weakness.market shareInvestor presentationSo long as these lines move up and to the right, I’m not bothered with pricing actions. Every firm in every industry wants market share gains, and Tesla has them.revenue revisionsSeeking AlphaThat being said, revenue estimates are headed lower in the past several months, which is less than ideal. So long as revenue estimates are falling, the stock may struggle to make a significant move higher. However, if/when they do turn higher again, look out above in terms of the stock price.I normally would place more weight on revenue estimates, except that Tesla’s margin profile has continued to get better and better over time. What that means is that it is in a position to generate higher profitability on each dollar of revenue, and gives it the freedom to do things like cut prices. As I said, strength, not weakness.Below, we have gross and operating margins on a trailing-twelve-months basis for the past few years for some context.Both have moved sharply higher over time, but what’s interesting is that operating margins have continued to grow while gross margins have actually declined in recent quarters. In the first quarter of 2022, gross margins were 27.1% of revenue, while operating margins were 15.5%. That’s a difference of 11.6%. The most recent quarter (with fresh earnings due out in a couple of weeks) was 25.6% and 16.8%, respectively. That’s a difference of 8.8%, which means the gap between operating margin and gross margin is contracting fairly rapidly. That’s an excellent development as it means that each dollar of revenue is becoming more profitable, despite declining gross margins. Imagine what would happen should the company focus on building gross margins again.Regardless of whether the company continues to focus on market share, or decides to go after more margin, the future is bright and be in no doubt; pricing actions are being done from a position of strength.Cash is kingOne problem Tesla used to have – and one that I was very concerned about a few years ago – is cash burn. We all know Tesla expanded extremely rapidly over the past few years, which takes cash. However, not only does the company not burn cash any longer, but its balance sheet is absolutely outstanding.Net debt is now down to a net cash position of more than $16 billion, which has numerous benefits. Tesla no longer needs to borrow money or issue stock to fund development. It can make acquisitions, it can invest that cash for additional income, or it can expand at whatever pace it deems necessary. That includes things like rapid expansion of gigafactories, development and refinement of new and existing models, etc. Cash used to be the single biggest issue for Tesla, but now is a massive source of strength.How has Tesla built a fortress balance sheet? Free cash flow (\"FCF\").TTM FCF is up to $7+ billion, and FCF margin is consistently in the area of 9% to 11% of revenue. These are terrific numbers, and judging by the build in cash on the balance sheet – which is happening simultaneously with factory expansion globally – it’s more than sufficient. Should these numbers decline over time, concern will reign again. But I see no cause for concern here.Finally, let’s take a look at EPS estimates, which, like revenue, don’t exactly look that great.EPS estimates have come way down since late last year, but have plateaued. Is that it in terms of downward revisions? Time will tell, but anyone that’s familiar with my work knows I very much prefer rising EPS and revenue estimates. We don’t have that here, and that’s why I’m more cautious than I normally would be.A look at valuationsLet’s start the valuation conversation with price to sales, which we have below for the past three years on a forward basis.Today’s forward P/S ratio is 5.7X, which is very near the bottom of the range. We could argue the days of 19X forward sales were frothy, and they almost certainly were. But the point stands that – from my perspective – Tesla is stronger than ever in many ways, while sporting what can only be considered a low forward P/S ratio.Similarly, the forward P/E ratio just continues to fall, as the stock is seeing 46X forward earnings today, compared to an average of 110X in the past three years.I’m not going to try to convince anyone that 48X forward earnings is cheap, because we all have our own feelings on relative value. I’m also not going to value Tesla like a traditional automaker, because it isn’t one, and that’s a pointless exercise. I will, however, value the stock against its own historical tendencies, and just like revenue, I cannot see how Tesla, Inc. stock shouldn’t be considered reasonably valued at worst here.Do I think we’ll see 110X forward earnings again? No. Is there upside potential to 60X or 70X? If I’m right about lower interest rates and a tech/growth bull market, then absolutely there is. For me, that’s the consideration. If we get a bull market in tech and growth this year, more so than what we’ve already seen, stocks like Tesla have enormous upside potential. If I’m wrong, you have the $165 area where you can stop out and take your loss. From a risk/reward perspective, we’re looking at Tesla, Inc. perhaps $20 on the downside, but ~$60 to the upside given $4 in EPS estimates times a 60 forward P/E.I can already hear the laughing of value investors scoffing at the idea, but I follow the money, and it looks to me like Tesla, Inc. is attracting it in a big way. I’m maintaining my buy rating on Tesla stock, but am refraining from a strong buy given some of the concerns listed above. The closer we get to $165, the better the buy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":226879195471944,"gmtCreate":1696469211602,"gmtModify":1696469216381,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good day","listText":"Good day","text":"Good day","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6664b0593847e6a82dccb0049634421c","width":"596","height":"1005"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/226879195471944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987307922,"gmtCreate":1667812325667,"gmtModify":1676537967477,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"If they say buy quickly sell","listText":"If they say buy quickly sell","text":"If they say buy quickly sell","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987307922","repostId":"1170042264","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1170042264","pubTimestamp":1667835121,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170042264?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-07 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Bears Could Get Hammered Here","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170042264","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla continues to demonstrate its ability to drive significant operating leverage in Q3 despite facing macro headwinds. The company deserves credit for such remarkable execution.We assess that","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Tesla continues to demonstrate its ability to drive significant operating leverage in Q3 despite facing macro headwinds. The company deserves credit for such remarkable execution.</li><li>We assess that the commodity and supply chain headwinds have improved significantly. Moving forward, it could help lift Tesla&#39;s ability to lift its operating profitability further.</li><li>We discuss why TSLA remains well-supported at its current levels. Also, TSLA bears need to remember that nothing falls in a straight line.</li><li>We explain the critical levels to watch and highlight why the opportunity for a speculative setup in TSLA is reasonable.</li><li>Revise from Hold to Speculative Buy.</li></ul><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p>Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) investors continue to monitor TSLA&#39;s consolidation with bated breath. We presented in our pre-earnings update reminding investors of the perils of TSLA&#39;s overvaluation as macro headwinds intensified.</p><p>Accordingly, TSLA has held on to its October lows relatively well, even though it didn&#39;t participate in the recent broad market recovery. We anticipated that the selling momentum could subside at the current levels, as nothing falls in a straight line.</p><p>Hence, we have been assessing whether a potential counter-trend opportunity is possible in the current context, even as high P/E stocks like TSLA come under significant pressure.</p><p>Our analysis indicates that TSLA is not likely to be re-rated to its 2021 levels in the near term, with the Fed still hawkish. However, the potential for TSLA to continue consolidating before staging a rally is still possible if CEO Elon Musk &amp; team can achieve a robust Q4.</p><p>Management&#39;s commentary on its Q3 earnings suggests that it could continue gaining incremental operating leverage as commodity costs continue to abate. Moreover, coupled with further easing in global supply chain pressures, it could help mitigate the impact of a subscale Giga Berlin and Texas ramp.</p><p>As such, we believe a speculative opportunity is possible even as the Fed turned increasingly hawkish.</p><p>Revising TSLA from Hold to Speculative Buy, with a price target (PT) of $280 (implying a potential upside of 30%).</p><p><b>All Eyes On Tesla&#39;s Operating Margins Through FY23</b></p><p>Management&#39;s commentary in its recent earnings suggested that Tesla could have experienced the peak in average commodity costs in Q3, as CFO Zach Kirkhorn articulated:</p><blockquote>At least of what we know so far, so peak on the commodity side in Q3, I say peak, hopefully, it stays the peak, hopefully, it starts to come down. There is a small amount of production that we&#39;re seeing going into our Q4 cost structure from steel and aluminum primarily, but it&#39;s less than 10% of the total increases we&#39;ve seen so far. (Tesla FQ3&#39;22 earnings call)</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3563c185c6cda508b044db61bc4fb105\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>SPGSCI price chart (weekly) (TradingView)</p><p>As seen above, the S&amp;P GSCI Commodity Index (SPGSCI) has fallen markedly from its March and June highs through October. Therefore, Tesla&#39;s observation is in the correct direction, even though the positive effects could be more meaningful only from FY23.</p><p>Still, it warrants investors to consider that Tesla&#39;s ability to drive significant operating leverage when costs are meaningfully lower should not be ruled out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/333f52140461bc1023fae54d07205ce2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Gross margins % and EBIT margins % consensus estimates (S&amp;P Cap IQ)</p><p>As seen above, Tesla recovered its EBIT margins remarkably in Q3, even though deliveries were lower than the consensus estimates. The leading EV maker posted a margin of 17.2% in Q3, up from Q2&#39;s 14.6%.</p><p>Its corporate gross margins also appeared to have stopped falling from Q2&#39;s 25%. Management highlighted its confidence to continue driving leverage, which is also in line with the revised consensus estimates (bullish).</p><p>Hence, it forbodes well for TSLA if the company could execute accordingly through FY23.</p><p>We believe the market is assessing whether the tailwinds in the global supply chain and weaker commodity prices could help lift Tesla&#39;s profitability moving ahead.</p><p>The critical issue is whether the market has priced in the macro challenges accordingly in the near term.</p><p><b>TSLA De-rating Still Underway</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81e7922409938765af6924f53d10683\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSLA NTM EBITDA multiples valuation trend (koyfin)</p><p>We think there&#39;s no question that the market has de-rated TSLA. It last traded at an NTM EBITDA of 25x, well below its 10Y mean of 52x. We explained in our previous article why TSLA bulls need to temper their target multiple moving forward, as Tesla&#39;s growth is expected to slow.</p><p>Furthermore, TSLA remains well ahead of the lows seen in 2019 and 2020. Therefore, TSLA is not just expensive relative to its industry peers or sector sectors but also not undervalued relative to its historical averages.</p><p>Notwithstanding, it doesn&#39;t necessarily mean that there are no opportunities to execute a mean-reversion setup if the reward/risk is reasonable.</p><p>If Tesla could continue improving its leverage as commodity tailwinds reverse, it could make up for slower revenue growth, even as its China deliveries suffered a MoM decline. Moreover, we believe Tesla cutting prices in China doesn&#39;t necessarily mean it&#39;s doom and gloom if it could take share from China&#39;s leading EV makers.</p><p>The critical question is how the market sees it.</p><p><b>Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b57f05b89c0c984c5660b41daecb9180\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSLA price chart (weekly) (TradingView)</p><p>For a high P/E stock (40x NTM earnings) compared to the S&amp;P 500&#39;s (SP500) (SPX) 16x forward P/E, TSLA&#39;s YTD total return of -32.5% doesn&#39;t look too bad. Compared to the Invesco QQQ ETF&#39;s (QQQ) YTD total return of -33%, with a forward P/E of 18.8x, TSLA performed admirably.</p><p>Therefore, even though we think TSLA is not cheap, we can still identify appropriate opportunities to execute on TSLA. We assess that such an opportunity is appropriate at the current levels. So here&#39;s how it goes.</p><p>It&#39;s clear that TSLA remains in a long-term uptrend but has lost its medium-term bullish bias. That&#39;s ok, as nothing falls in a straight line. Moreover, buying support appears to be robust at the current levels, as it consolidated over the past four weeks, undergirded by the lows in May 2022.</p><p>Furthermore, we postulate that buyers should be looking to defend its &#34;intermediate support 1&#34; vigorously if the sellers attempt to force a decisive downside break of the current levels. Coupled with the support of the 200-week moving average (purple line), we assess that momentum seems to be shifting back to the buyers.</p><p>Hence, the market seems confident in Musk &amp; team&#39;s execution in the near term, given the reversal of some critical tailwinds from H1&#39;22. As a result, we deduce that a near-term PT of $280 is appropriate for the current setup, proffering investors a potential upside of about 30%.</p><p>However, we urge investors to consider setting up appropriate risk management strategies if the bears managed to force downside beyond its &#34;intermediate support 1,&#34; as it would invalidate our thesis.</p><p>As the Fed remains hawkish, further macro headwinds could cause the market to anticipate significant stress on Tesla&#39;s operating leverage, behooving further value compression. As we highlighted earlier, TSLA is not undervalued.</p><p><i>Revising our rating from Hold to Speculative Buy.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Bears Could Get Hammered Here</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Bears Could Get Hammered Here\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-07 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4553345-tesla-bears-could-hammered><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla continues to demonstrate its ability to drive significant operating leverage in Q3 despite facing macro headwinds. The company deserves credit for such remarkable execution.We assess that...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4553345-tesla-bears-could-hammered\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4553345-tesla-bears-could-hammered","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170042264","content_text":"SummaryTesla continues to demonstrate its ability to drive significant operating leverage in Q3 despite facing macro headwinds. The company deserves credit for such remarkable execution.We assess that the commodity and supply chain headwinds have improved significantly. Moving forward, it could help lift Tesla's ability to lift its operating profitability further.We discuss why TSLA remains well-supported at its current levels. Also, TSLA bears need to remember that nothing falls in a straight line.We explain the critical levels to watch and highlight why the opportunity for a speculative setup in TSLA is reasonable.Revise from Hold to Speculative Buy.ThesisTesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) investors continue to monitor TSLA's consolidation with bated breath. We presented in our pre-earnings update reminding investors of the perils of TSLA's overvaluation as macro headwinds intensified.Accordingly, TSLA has held on to its October lows relatively well, even though it didn't participate in the recent broad market recovery. We anticipated that the selling momentum could subside at the current levels, as nothing falls in a straight line.Hence, we have been assessing whether a potential counter-trend opportunity is possible in the current context, even as high P/E stocks like TSLA come under significant pressure.Our analysis indicates that TSLA is not likely to be re-rated to its 2021 levels in the near term, with the Fed still hawkish. However, the potential for TSLA to continue consolidating before staging a rally is still possible if CEO Elon Musk & team can achieve a robust Q4.Management's commentary on its Q3 earnings suggests that it could continue gaining incremental operating leverage as commodity costs continue to abate. Moreover, coupled with further easing in global supply chain pressures, it could help mitigate the impact of a subscale Giga Berlin and Texas ramp.As such, we believe a speculative opportunity is possible even as the Fed turned increasingly hawkish.Revising TSLA from Hold to Speculative Buy, with a price target (PT) of $280 (implying a potential upside of 30%).All Eyes On Tesla's Operating Margins Through FY23Management's commentary in its recent earnings suggested that Tesla could have experienced the peak in average commodity costs in Q3, as CFO Zach Kirkhorn articulated:At least of what we know so far, so peak on the commodity side in Q3, I say peak, hopefully, it stays the peak, hopefully, it starts to come down. There is a small amount of production that we're seeing going into our Q4 cost structure from steel and aluminum primarily, but it's less than 10% of the total increases we've seen so far. (Tesla FQ3'22 earnings call)SPGSCI price chart (weekly) (TradingView)As seen above, the S&P GSCI Commodity Index (SPGSCI) has fallen markedly from its March and June highs through October. Therefore, Tesla's observation is in the correct direction, even though the positive effects could be more meaningful only from FY23.Still, it warrants investors to consider that Tesla's ability to drive significant operating leverage when costs are meaningfully lower should not be ruled out.Tesla Gross margins % and EBIT margins % consensus estimates (S&P Cap IQ)As seen above, Tesla recovered its EBIT margins remarkably in Q3, even though deliveries were lower than the consensus estimates. The leading EV maker posted a margin of 17.2% in Q3, up from Q2's 14.6%.Its corporate gross margins also appeared to have stopped falling from Q2's 25%. Management highlighted its confidence to continue driving leverage, which is also in line with the revised consensus estimates (bullish).Hence, it forbodes well for TSLA if the company could execute accordingly through FY23.We believe the market is assessing whether the tailwinds in the global supply chain and weaker commodity prices could help lift Tesla's profitability moving ahead.The critical issue is whether the market has priced in the macro challenges accordingly in the near term.TSLA De-rating Still UnderwayTSLA NTM EBITDA multiples valuation trend (koyfin)We think there's no question that the market has de-rated TSLA. It last traded at an NTM EBITDA of 25x, well below its 10Y mean of 52x. We explained in our previous article why TSLA bulls need to temper their target multiple moving forward, as Tesla's growth is expected to slow.Furthermore, TSLA remains well ahead of the lows seen in 2019 and 2020. Therefore, TSLA is not just expensive relative to its industry peers or sector sectors but also not undervalued relative to its historical averages.Notwithstanding, it doesn't necessarily mean that there are no opportunities to execute a mean-reversion setup if the reward/risk is reasonable.If Tesla could continue improving its leverage as commodity tailwinds reverse, it could make up for slower revenue growth, even as its China deliveries suffered a MoM decline. Moreover, we believe Tesla cutting prices in China doesn't necessarily mean it's doom and gloom if it could take share from China's leading EV makers.The critical question is how the market sees it.Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?TSLA price chart (weekly) (TradingView)For a high P/E stock (40x NTM earnings) compared to the S&P 500's (SP500) (SPX) 16x forward P/E, TSLA's YTD total return of -32.5% doesn't look too bad. Compared to the Invesco QQQ ETF's (QQQ) YTD total return of -33%, with a forward P/E of 18.8x, TSLA performed admirably.Therefore, even though we think TSLA is not cheap, we can still identify appropriate opportunities to execute on TSLA. We assess that such an opportunity is appropriate at the current levels. So here's how it goes.It's clear that TSLA remains in a long-term uptrend but has lost its medium-term bullish bias. That's ok, as nothing falls in a straight line. Moreover, buying support appears to be robust at the current levels, as it consolidated over the past four weeks, undergirded by the lows in May 2022.Furthermore, we postulate that buyers should be looking to defend its \"intermediate support 1\" vigorously if the sellers attempt to force a decisive downside break of the current levels. Coupled with the support of the 200-week moving average (purple line), we assess that momentum seems to be shifting back to the buyers.Hence, the market seems confident in Musk & team's execution in the near term, given the reversal of some critical tailwinds from H1'22. As a result, we deduce that a near-term PT of $280 is appropriate for the current setup, proffering investors a potential upside of about 30%.However, we urge investors to consider setting up appropriate risk management strategies if the bears managed to force downside beyond its \"intermediate support 1,\" as it would invalidate our thesis.As the Fed remains hawkish, further macro headwinds could cause the market to anticipate significant stress on Tesla's operating leverage, behooving further value compression. As we highlighted earlier, TSLA is not undervalued.Revising our rating from Hold to Speculative Buy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831359043,"gmtCreate":1629290915882,"gmtModify":1676529992854,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"90% of traders lose 90% of the time. Just hodl n wait","listText":"90% of traders lose 90% of the time. Just hodl n wait","text":"90% of traders lose 90% of the time. Just hodl n wait","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831359043","repostId":"1143139790","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":156,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039789006,"gmtCreate":1646125986836,"gmtModify":1676534093795,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not simple","listText":"Not simple","text":"Not simple","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039789006","repostId":"1157633134","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":64,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":271680688353560,"gmtCreate":1707366088561,"gmtModify":1707366093270,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Such bullish sentiments typically means local top is near. Just joking dont take it too seriously","listText":"Such bullish sentiments typically means local top is near. Just joking dont take it too seriously","text":"Such bullish sentiments typically means local top is near. Just joking dont take it too seriously","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/271680688353560","repostId":"2409204850","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2409204850","pubTimestamp":1707359435,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2409204850?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-02-08 10:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: This Is Just The Beginning","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2409204850","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Palantir had a strong end to FY23, surpassing the Rule of 40 at 54% for q4'23 and 44% for FY23.Gartner forecasts 13.8% y/y growth in IT spend for 2024 with a primary focus in cost-reducing projects. P","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Palantir had a strong end to FY23, surpassing the Rule of 40 at 54% for q4&#39;23 and 44% for FY23.</p></li><li><p>Gartner forecasts 13.8% y/y growth in IT spend for 2024 with a primary focus in cost-reducing projects. Palantir&#39;s products may be that solution.</p></li><li><p>Palantir&#39;s AI capabilities and AIP bootcamps are driving sales and attracting new customers, with high-value deals expected to continue.</p></li></ul><p>Writing that Palantir had an extraordinary end to FY23 would be an understatement. Investor sentiment shifted strongly since I wrote my initial bullish investment thesis back on December 16, 2023. The recent earnings announcement caused the stock to jump over 40% in the next two trading days. I’ll admit, I was beginning to think my thesis was drastically off for over the course of the next month and a half as the shares traded down -12% from publication to Q4’23 earnings. With this new growth trajectory and accelerated interest in AI at the corporate level, I am maintaining my BUY recommendation and increasing my forecast and price target to $30.70/share based on 22.89x my eFY25 sales forecast.</p><h3 id=\"id_563621767\">Operations</h3><p>Palantir finished FY23 on a high note, with commercial customers growing by 55% y/y in Q4’23 and 12% sequentially. This translated to a 70% increase in commercial revenue for the quarter from the previous year. TCV booked $1.15b, $699mm of which derived from commercial customers, growing on a y/y basis by 192% and 156%, respectively. Palantir also experienced strong growth in both top line and margins, surpassing the Rule of 40 at 54% when using Q4’23 revenue growth and adjusted operating income.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c470cf80a57b5417f0d80692faeea9e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"83\"/></p><p>Corporate Reports</p><p>As discerned below, I believe management’s guidance may be coming in more conservative as AI takes shape.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dd95111cd55a53d5aafb021417d22a3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"67\"/></p><p>Corporate Reports</p><p>I believe one of the strengths that Palantir found in the last few quarters was within their AIP bootcamps. Rather than a sales call cycle, the firm is actively showcasing their AIP features in these masterclasses to show how effective their products are in the business environment. This has proven highly successful in not only cross-selling across their current customer base, but also expanding and attracting new customers. I believe that as Generative AI has been the topic of conversation for the last year and continues to be so, interest in Palantir’s AI-oriented offerings will accelerate and drive the sales conversion cycle. Though it may be far reaching to equate their over 500 AIP bootcamps to their 35% y/y increase in new customers, I believe that there may be some correlation between the two.</p><p>Palantir closed 103 deals valued at over $1mm in Q4’23, with 37 of those deals over $5mm, and 21 over $10mm. I anticipate these high-value deals to continue to flow to Palantir as the firm showcases their AI capabilities and allows their potential customers to fully grasp the capabilities in their one-on-one demonstration approach. Management came in very bold with their approach, citing:</p><blockquote><p>I go around the country now telling CEOs, CTOs, and really, whoever has $1 million to buy our product and transform their enterprise, take everything you&#39;ve done in AI since you started, put your best people on it, and we&#39;re going to show up at any time you want, and we&#39;re going to run your data at a bootcamp for 10 hours. And then, you compare your self-pleasuring to our operationally-relevant, commercially-valuable, critical-to-your-enterprise results. Our 10 hours, your 10 months. Any products you want, any vendor you want, any hyperscaler you want, you pick them, we&#39;ll show up.</p><p>Alex Karp, CEO, Palantir</p></blockquote><p>There also remains a huge opportunity in the public sector as management mentioned that the Army’s budget for their command and control software is only 0.015% of hardware and software spend.</p><blockquote><p>The principal reason is that the DoD is at the very beginning of a long-term allocation shift from hardware to software. For example, the Army is spending a mere 0.015% of its budget on command and control software in fiscal year &#39;24. But as we confront crisis and conflict in three theaters, this is changing. Growth is being driven by the incredible dynamism of the US commercial market, and US government will follow.</p><p>Shyam Sankar, CTO Palantir</p></blockquote><p>Though I wouldn’t bet the farm on an overnight success in government contracts, I do believe that this will be a slow grower for the firm and accumulate value over a long period of time. At the risk of overstepping my analyst duties, I do believe that if any of these global skirmishes were to escalate to further involve the US, DoD investments in Palantir’s capabilities may be pulled forward. As management had alluded to in the Q4’23 earnings call, China may further become a threat as their economic growth engine stalls.</p><p>One growth headwind that the firm faces, which I don’t believe to be as big of a challenge given the customer interest behind Palantir’s software, is that their salesforce is lagging behind their growth. Management spent a significant portion of the q4’23 earnings call discussing their recruitment process and that the firm is actively seeking to strengthen their headcount as the company’s profitability scales. Though this isn’t necessarily a bad problem to have, it can potentially create some challenges in customer relations and making sure each customer receives the appropriate attention to ensure retention and maximize cross-selling. Though I do not anticipate this to have a negative impact on the firm’s growth potential, I do anticipate that adding the additional headcount can reel in margins from their recent high. Taking management’s guidance for eFY24, Palantir’s adjusted operating margin is expected to taper from the Q4’23 high of 34% to 32% in eQ1’24 and in the range of 31-32% for eFY24, which remains well above the FY23 adjusted operating margin of 27%.</p><p>In building a case for Palantir’s growth, I believe looking at the AI-enabling chip companies like Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Intel (INTC) as a guide from a hardware perspective can discern some intel on how the software portion of AI will react. Though I do not anticipate this to be a 1-for-1 equation, I do believe that there is some relation in which hardware is only as useful as the software that’s running on these high-performance chips. Management anticipates 17% top-line growth for Q1’24, which I believe is a very modest estimate.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f54e5662f085a6c807275f56390f4e84\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"56\"/></p><p>Corporate Reports</p><p>As the firm grows and scales operations, I anticipate revenue growth to outpace any contractionary effects to margins as a result of scaling staff and infrastructure. I believe that Palantir has a huge opportunity and has only scratched the surface in scaling their AIP tool and I believe that as the firm continues to aggressively bring forward the product in their AIP bootcamps, I expect firms to latch onto its capabilities. Gartner forecasted 8% total IT spending growth with 13.8% growth in software alone for CY24. Their survey suggested that IT spend will primarily focus in cost-reducing technologies. As Palantir’s management had alluded to in their Q4’23 earnings call, AIP does just that.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/196e375f41a559f167f522746535f4ee\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"448\"/></p><p>Gartner</p><p>I anticipate a much higher concentration in IT spend being allocated to AI-enabling technologies. Contrary to the company <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a> (SNOW) that I covered on January 30, 2024, Palantir’s software provides actionable capabilities for creating operational efficiencies. Snowflake, on the other hand, provides the database and a set of data analytic tools to be hosted in a hyperscaler environment for LLM analysis. Each software package brings forth its own merits; however, Palantir’s software package is more of an enabler vs. just a toolbox.</p><h3 id=\"id_94300243\">Valuation &amp; Shareholder Value</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/374a64f498a5414f77a88312ecd7553e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"83\"/></p><p>Corporate Reports</p><p>PLTR currently trades at 23.17x FY23 sales, a slight premium to the firm’s competitors. Given my expectations for Palantir’s growth trajectory into eFY24 and eFY25, I anticipate significant upside for PLTR shares. Forecasting out to eFY25, I provide PLTR shares a BUY recommendation with a price target of $30.70/share at 22.89x eFY25 sales.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d84c744f6e11a41dbc0900b1cd076bc5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\"/></p><p>Corporate Reports</p><p>Reviewing my previous technical chart, PLTR shares moved exactly as expected. Looking ahead to my $30.70/share price target, I anticipate a continued near-term run-up before a slight pullback to $21.59/share before moving up to my ultimate target. I believe that any pullback in shares will be a great buying opportunity as I anticipate this stock to appreciate by 40%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56fb3b82155967ed13b2743e0e6d106b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\"/></p><p>TradingView</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: This Is Just The Beginning</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: This Is Just The Beginning\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-08 10:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4668303-palantir-this-is-just-the-beginning><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Palantir had a strong end to FY23, surpassing the Rule of 40 at 54% for q4'23 and 44% for FY23.Gartner forecasts 13.8% y/y growth in IT spend for 2024 with a primary focus in cost-reducing projects. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4668303-palantir-this-is-just-the-beginning\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","BK4097":"系统软件","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU0957791311.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","BK4515":"5G概念","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4567":"ESG概念","LU2458330169.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU2458330243.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A-H1\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","BK4566":"资本集团","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4116":"互联网服务与基础架构","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","BK4141":"半导体产品","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4668303-palantir-this-is-just-the-beginning","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2409204850","content_text":"Palantir had a strong end to FY23, surpassing the Rule of 40 at 54% for q4'23 and 44% for FY23.Gartner forecasts 13.8% y/y growth in IT spend for 2024 with a primary focus in cost-reducing projects. Palantir's products may be that solution.Palantir's AI capabilities and AIP bootcamps are driving sales and attracting new customers, with high-value deals expected to continue.Writing that Palantir had an extraordinary end to FY23 would be an understatement. Investor sentiment shifted strongly since I wrote my initial bullish investment thesis back on December 16, 2023. The recent earnings announcement caused the stock to jump over 40% in the next two trading days. I’ll admit, I was beginning to think my thesis was drastically off for over the course of the next month and a half as the shares traded down -12% from publication to Q4’23 earnings. With this new growth trajectory and accelerated interest in AI at the corporate level, I am maintaining my BUY recommendation and increasing my forecast and price target to $30.70/share based on 22.89x my eFY25 sales forecast.OperationsPalantir finished FY23 on a high note, with commercial customers growing by 55% y/y in Q4’23 and 12% sequentially. This translated to a 70% increase in commercial revenue for the quarter from the previous year. TCV booked $1.15b, $699mm of which derived from commercial customers, growing on a y/y basis by 192% and 156%, respectively. Palantir also experienced strong growth in both top line and margins, surpassing the Rule of 40 at 54% when using Q4’23 revenue growth and adjusted operating income.Corporate ReportsAs discerned below, I believe management’s guidance may be coming in more conservative as AI takes shape.Corporate ReportsI believe one of the strengths that Palantir found in the last few quarters was within their AIP bootcamps. Rather than a sales call cycle, the firm is actively showcasing their AIP features in these masterclasses to show how effective their products are in the business environment. This has proven highly successful in not only cross-selling across their current customer base, but also expanding and attracting new customers. I believe that as Generative AI has been the topic of conversation for the last year and continues to be so, interest in Palantir’s AI-oriented offerings will accelerate and drive the sales conversion cycle. Though it may be far reaching to equate their over 500 AIP bootcamps to their 35% y/y increase in new customers, I believe that there may be some correlation between the two.Palantir closed 103 deals valued at over $1mm in Q4’23, with 37 of those deals over $5mm, and 21 over $10mm. I anticipate these high-value deals to continue to flow to Palantir as the firm showcases their AI capabilities and allows their potential customers to fully grasp the capabilities in their one-on-one demonstration approach. Management came in very bold with their approach, citing:I go around the country now telling CEOs, CTOs, and really, whoever has $1 million to buy our product and transform their enterprise, take everything you've done in AI since you started, put your best people on it, and we're going to show up at any time you want, and we're going to run your data at a bootcamp for 10 hours. And then, you compare your self-pleasuring to our operationally-relevant, commercially-valuable, critical-to-your-enterprise results. Our 10 hours, your 10 months. Any products you want, any vendor you want, any hyperscaler you want, you pick them, we'll show up.Alex Karp, CEO, PalantirThere also remains a huge opportunity in the public sector as management mentioned that the Army’s budget for their command and control software is only 0.015% of hardware and software spend.The principal reason is that the DoD is at the very beginning of a long-term allocation shift from hardware to software. For example, the Army is spending a mere 0.015% of its budget on command and control software in fiscal year '24. But as we confront crisis and conflict in three theaters, this is changing. Growth is being driven by the incredible dynamism of the US commercial market, and US government will follow.Shyam Sankar, CTO PalantirThough I wouldn’t bet the farm on an overnight success in government contracts, I do believe that this will be a slow grower for the firm and accumulate value over a long period of time. At the risk of overstepping my analyst duties, I do believe that if any of these global skirmishes were to escalate to further involve the US, DoD investments in Palantir’s capabilities may be pulled forward. As management had alluded to in the Q4’23 earnings call, China may further become a threat as their economic growth engine stalls.One growth headwind that the firm faces, which I don’t believe to be as big of a challenge given the customer interest behind Palantir’s software, is that their salesforce is lagging behind their growth. Management spent a significant portion of the q4’23 earnings call discussing their recruitment process and that the firm is actively seeking to strengthen their headcount as the company’s profitability scales. Though this isn’t necessarily a bad problem to have, it can potentially create some challenges in customer relations and making sure each customer receives the appropriate attention to ensure retention and maximize cross-selling. Though I do not anticipate this to have a negative impact on the firm’s growth potential, I do anticipate that adding the additional headcount can reel in margins from their recent high. Taking management’s guidance for eFY24, Palantir’s adjusted operating margin is expected to taper from the Q4’23 high of 34% to 32% in eQ1’24 and in the range of 31-32% for eFY24, which remains well above the FY23 adjusted operating margin of 27%.In building a case for Palantir’s growth, I believe looking at the AI-enabling chip companies like Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Intel (INTC) as a guide from a hardware perspective can discern some intel on how the software portion of AI will react. Though I do not anticipate this to be a 1-for-1 equation, I do believe that there is some relation in which hardware is only as useful as the software that’s running on these high-performance chips. Management anticipates 17% top-line growth for Q1’24, which I believe is a very modest estimate.Corporate ReportsAs the firm grows and scales operations, I anticipate revenue growth to outpace any contractionary effects to margins as a result of scaling staff and infrastructure. I believe that Palantir has a huge opportunity and has only scratched the surface in scaling their AIP tool and I believe that as the firm continues to aggressively bring forward the product in their AIP bootcamps, I expect firms to latch onto its capabilities. Gartner forecasted 8% total IT spending growth with 13.8% growth in software alone for CY24. Their survey suggested that IT spend will primarily focus in cost-reducing technologies. As Palantir’s management had alluded to in their Q4’23 earnings call, AIP does just that.GartnerI anticipate a much higher concentration in IT spend being allocated to AI-enabling technologies. Contrary to the company Snowflake (SNOW) that I covered on January 30, 2024, Palantir’s software provides actionable capabilities for creating operational efficiencies. Snowflake, on the other hand, provides the database and a set of data analytic tools to be hosted in a hyperscaler environment for LLM analysis. Each software package brings forth its own merits; however, Palantir’s software package is more of an enabler vs. just a toolbox.Valuation & Shareholder ValueCorporate ReportsPLTR currently trades at 23.17x FY23 sales, a slight premium to the firm’s competitors. Given my expectations for Palantir’s growth trajectory into eFY24 and eFY25, I anticipate significant upside for PLTR shares. Forecasting out to eFY25, I provide PLTR shares a BUY recommendation with a price target of $30.70/share at 22.89x eFY25 sales.Corporate ReportsReviewing my previous technical chart, PLTR shares moved exactly as expected. Looking ahead to my $30.70/share price target, I anticipate a continued near-term run-up before a slight pullback to $21.59/share before moving up to my ultimate target. I believe that any pullback in shares will be a great buying opportunity as I anticipate this stock to appreciate by 40%.TradingView","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":83,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890198299,"gmtCreate":1628085939811,"gmtModify":1703500976142,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"HODL","listText":"HODL","text":"HODL","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/890198299","repostId":"1195860961","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1195860961","pubTimestamp":1628060045,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195860961?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-04 14:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons Tesla Stock Is Currently Overvalued","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195860961","media":"Investing.com","summary":"Summary:\n\nAfter a remarkable rally last year, Tesla stock has lost its momentum.\nThe stock’s tepid r","content":"<p><b>Summary:</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>After a remarkable rally last year, Tesla stock has lost its momentum.</li>\n <li>The stock’s tepid reaction to impressive Q2 earnings shows that the bull case is weakening.</li>\n <li>Chip shortages, rising competition could keep Tesla under pressure this year.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Lately, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares seem to have lost their magic. The stock no longer reacts wildly to every positive development, disappointing investors who made fortunes while staying faithful to the world’s largest electric car-maker.</p>\n<p>The latest example of this dampening optimism came when Tesla announced itsquarterly earningson July 26. The company’s shares fell more than 4% after the earnings report, which handedly beat analysts’ consensus estimates.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae1d0e8a03c4269ff0c91bcaaf57e87d\" tg-width=\"1412\" tg-height=\"1172\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Tesla Weekly Chart.</span></p>\n<p>During the quarter, in which the California-based car-maker produced a record 201,250 vehicles, its profit more than tripled to $1.45 a share on an adjusted basis, beating the $0.97 average analysts had estimated. It was also the company’s eighth straight profitable quarter.</p>\n<p>Tesla's net income in the second quarter was roughly equal to the prior four quarters combined. The company reported revenue of roughly $12 billion for the period that ended June 30, nearly double the amount in the corresponding period a year earlier.</p>\n<p>Despite this strong earnings momentum, the stock didn’t jump the way it once did on every shred of positive news. TSLA is up less than 6% during the past five days as of yesterday's close. From its record high in January, Tesla shares are down almost 23%.</p>\n<p>So, what’s prompting investors to shun this market tech darling, even when its financials have shown a great turnaround?</p>\n<p>As we see it, there are both short- and long-term factors at play, causing Tesla enthusiasts to move to the sidelines. Here are three key catalysts that make this EV stalwart a risky bet right now, supporting our view that Tesla is not a buy in this environment:</p>\n<p><b>1. Chip Shortages</b></p>\n<p>The global chip shortages that have hurt production for many car-makers is beginning to pinch Tesla as well. During its earnings call, Tesla told investors that the company's future pace of growth won't be able to escape the ongoing supply-chain challenges.</p>\n<p>The company, for example, is struggling to introduce new models and secure parts for all its vehicles. Tesla again delayed its semi-trailer truck—already two years late—with first deliveries now slated for 2022. The company attributed the delay to supply-chain issues and limited battery-cell supply, as well as trying to focus on getting new factories online.</p>\n<p>The company’s plans for its first pickup truck, once expected to go to customers as early as this year, are also being affected by parts issues, said Chief Executive Elon Musk on an earnings call, without giving a revised first delivery date.</p>\n<p>How long chip-supply issues will persist is anybody’s guess right now. Chip-makers are trying to eke out more supply through changes to manufacturing processes and by opening up spare capacity to rivals, auditing customer orders to prevent hoarding and swapping over production lines, according to a recent report by theWall Street Journal. The bad news: there are no quick fixes, as building new production capacity usually takes years.</p>\n<p><b>2. Competition Heating Up</b></p>\n<p>Another threat challenging Tesla’s dominance in the EV market is coming from new sources of competition. Overall, five of the biggest automakers—Daimler(OTC:DDAIF), Ford (NYSE:F),General Motors(NYSE:GM), Stellantis (NYSE:STLA) and Volkswagen (OTC:VWAGY)—have each laid out plans to spend an average $6.5 billion annually on electrification efforts over the next five to 10 years, according toBloomberg.</p>\n<p>In April, VW launched its new Audi Q4 e-tron model to compete with Tesla in the fast-growing market of compact crossover SUVs. The Audi’s EV model is among a dozen vehicles the German auto-maker has planned, including VW’s ID.4 and an electric version of the Porsche Macan. VW is aiming to sell roughly 600,000 purely battery-powered cars this year.</p>\n<p>While traditional auto-makers, like Volkswagen and GM accelerate their EV efforts, smaller Chinese upstarts like Nio (NYSE:NIO) and Xpeng (NYSE:XPEV) are also vying for tech-savvy customers.</p>\n<p>According to media reports, GM’s EV plans will accelerate starting later this year as a Hummer pickup truck and Cadillac Lyriq sport utility vehicle begin rolling off the Detroit carmaker's production lines. An electric Chevy Silverado pickup is also on the way.</p>\n<p>In China, GM’s lower-priced Hongguang Mini EV, which it’s producing with two state-owned companies, has been a hit. More than a quarter of a million of the models have been sold since the vehicle launched last July, outperforming international rivals like Tesla’s Model 3 and local competitors, including Great Wall's (OTC:GWLLY) Ora Black Cat.</p>\n<p><b>3. Lofty Valuations</b></p>\n<p>Tesla’s valuation has also been a major source of friction among Wall Street’s top analysts. Those who see Tesla as a highly overpriced stock argue that the company has no room to make an error when its stock is priced for perfection.</p>\n<p>JPMorgan, which has an underweight rating on Tesla with a price target of $160, said in a recent note:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “Tesla’s high valuation leaves little room for less-than-perfect execution, as evidenced by a relatively tepid reaction in the aftermarket Monday to what was a fairly sizable EBITA beat, and we did see some less than perfect takeaways, including the official delay of the Tesla Semi into 2022 (albeit likely already almost entirely baked in); the seeming delay of the Cybertruck from late 2021 into 2022 (likely mostly baked in).”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Even after its recent selloff, Tesla has a $680-billion market capitalization, making it worth more than the combined value of GM, Ford, Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM) and Volkswagen.</p>\n<p>Bernstein Research, which has a sell rating on Tesla with a price target of $175, said in its note:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “We continue to struggle to justify TSLA’s valuation, which is higher than all other major automakers combined and appears to imply huge volume and industry leading profitability going forward, which is historically unprecedented.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>These bearish views, however, shouldn’t hide the fact that many analysts believe Tesla is more than a car company and its stock has more upside.</p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas says Tesla shouldn’t be valued as a legacy car-maker. As cars become more connected to the internet, that opens up a lot of other addressable markets and Tesla is well-positioned to take advantage of those new opportunities.</p>\n<p>Said Jonas in a Bloomberg report:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “In the process, it takes you away from comparing Tesla to car companies and should rather be compared to software-as-a-service companies.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>This divergence is evident from<i>Investing.com</i>poll of analystsregarding Tesla’s share price. Of 35 analysts, 15 have a buy rating on the stock, while 12 have neutral ratings and eight have a sell recommendation, with a 12-month consensus price target of $730.59.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e03552d09d605eee4bcfefd531f11080\" tg-width=\"1332\" tg-height=\"856\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chart: Investing.com</span></p>\n<p>For investors, who look to technical signals to help make short-term investment decisions, the most popular indicators—moving averages, oscillators and pivots—are currently providing a buy signal, especially after Tesla’s strong earnings beat.</p>\n<p><b>Bottom Line</b></p>\n<p>Tesla has remained the only credible player in the high-quality EV market in recent years, but that equation is changing quickly after the entry of new players and the massive spending plans being put forward by the legacy car-makers. These dynamics don’t justify the company’s current valuation, which assumes that Tesla will become the biggest seller of cars in the U.S., while competitors won’t be able to succeed.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Tesla Stock Is Currently Overvalued</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Tesla Stock Is Currently Overvalued\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-04 14:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.investing.com/analysis/3-reasons-tesla-stock-is-currently-overvalued-200595598><strong>Investing.com</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary:\n\nAfter a remarkable rally last year, Tesla stock has lost its momentum.\nThe stock’s tepid reaction to impressive Q2 earnings shows that the bull case is weakening.\nChip shortages, rising ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.investing.com/analysis/3-reasons-tesla-stock-is-currently-overvalued-200595598\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.investing.com/analysis/3-reasons-tesla-stock-is-currently-overvalued-200595598","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195860961","content_text":"Summary:\n\nAfter a remarkable rally last year, Tesla stock has lost its momentum.\nThe stock’s tepid reaction to impressive Q2 earnings shows that the bull case is weakening.\nChip shortages, rising competition could keep Tesla under pressure this year.\n\nLately, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares seem to have lost their magic. The stock no longer reacts wildly to every positive development, disappointing investors who made fortunes while staying faithful to the world’s largest electric car-maker.\nThe latest example of this dampening optimism came when Tesla announced itsquarterly earningson July 26. The company’s shares fell more than 4% after the earnings report, which handedly beat analysts’ consensus estimates.\nTesla Weekly Chart.\nDuring the quarter, in which the California-based car-maker produced a record 201,250 vehicles, its profit more than tripled to $1.45 a share on an adjusted basis, beating the $0.97 average analysts had estimated. It was also the company’s eighth straight profitable quarter.\nTesla's net income in the second quarter was roughly equal to the prior four quarters combined. The company reported revenue of roughly $12 billion for the period that ended June 30, nearly double the amount in the corresponding period a year earlier.\nDespite this strong earnings momentum, the stock didn’t jump the way it once did on every shred of positive news. TSLA is up less than 6% during the past five days as of yesterday's close. From its record high in January, Tesla shares are down almost 23%.\nSo, what’s prompting investors to shun this market tech darling, even when its financials have shown a great turnaround?\nAs we see it, there are both short- and long-term factors at play, causing Tesla enthusiasts to move to the sidelines. Here are three key catalysts that make this EV stalwart a risky bet right now, supporting our view that Tesla is not a buy in this environment:\n1. Chip Shortages\nThe global chip shortages that have hurt production for many car-makers is beginning to pinch Tesla as well. During its earnings call, Tesla told investors that the company's future pace of growth won't be able to escape the ongoing supply-chain challenges.\nThe company, for example, is struggling to introduce new models and secure parts for all its vehicles. Tesla again delayed its semi-trailer truck—already two years late—with first deliveries now slated for 2022. The company attributed the delay to supply-chain issues and limited battery-cell supply, as well as trying to focus on getting new factories online.\nThe company’s plans for its first pickup truck, once expected to go to customers as early as this year, are also being affected by parts issues, said Chief Executive Elon Musk on an earnings call, without giving a revised first delivery date.\nHow long chip-supply issues will persist is anybody’s guess right now. Chip-makers are trying to eke out more supply through changes to manufacturing processes and by opening up spare capacity to rivals, auditing customer orders to prevent hoarding and swapping over production lines, according to a recent report by theWall Street Journal. The bad news: there are no quick fixes, as building new production capacity usually takes years.\n2. Competition Heating Up\nAnother threat challenging Tesla’s dominance in the EV market is coming from new sources of competition. Overall, five of the biggest automakers—Daimler(OTC:DDAIF), Ford (NYSE:F),General Motors(NYSE:GM), Stellantis (NYSE:STLA) and Volkswagen (OTC:VWAGY)—have each laid out plans to spend an average $6.5 billion annually on electrification efforts over the next five to 10 years, according toBloomberg.\nIn April, VW launched its new Audi Q4 e-tron model to compete with Tesla in the fast-growing market of compact crossover SUVs. The Audi’s EV model is among a dozen vehicles the German auto-maker has planned, including VW’s ID.4 and an electric version of the Porsche Macan. VW is aiming to sell roughly 600,000 purely battery-powered cars this year.\nWhile traditional auto-makers, like Volkswagen and GM accelerate their EV efforts, smaller Chinese upstarts like Nio (NYSE:NIO) and Xpeng (NYSE:XPEV) are also vying for tech-savvy customers.\nAccording to media reports, GM’s EV plans will accelerate starting later this year as a Hummer pickup truck and Cadillac Lyriq sport utility vehicle begin rolling off the Detroit carmaker's production lines. An electric Chevy Silverado pickup is also on the way.\nIn China, GM’s lower-priced Hongguang Mini EV, which it’s producing with two state-owned companies, has been a hit. More than a quarter of a million of the models have been sold since the vehicle launched last July, outperforming international rivals like Tesla’s Model 3 and local competitors, including Great Wall's (OTC:GWLLY) Ora Black Cat.\n3. Lofty Valuations\nTesla’s valuation has also been a major source of friction among Wall Street’s top analysts. Those who see Tesla as a highly overpriced stock argue that the company has no room to make an error when its stock is priced for perfection.\nJPMorgan, which has an underweight rating on Tesla with a price target of $160, said in a recent note:\n\n “Tesla’s high valuation leaves little room for less-than-perfect execution, as evidenced by a relatively tepid reaction in the aftermarket Monday to what was a fairly sizable EBITA beat, and we did see some less than perfect takeaways, including the official delay of the Tesla Semi into 2022 (albeit likely already almost entirely baked in); the seeming delay of the Cybertruck from late 2021 into 2022 (likely mostly baked in).”\n\nEven after its recent selloff, Tesla has a $680-billion market capitalization, making it worth more than the combined value of GM, Ford, Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM) and Volkswagen.\nBernstein Research, which has a sell rating on Tesla with a price target of $175, said in its note:\n\n “We continue to struggle to justify TSLA’s valuation, which is higher than all other major automakers combined and appears to imply huge volume and industry leading profitability going forward, which is historically unprecedented.”\n\nThese bearish views, however, shouldn’t hide the fact that many analysts believe Tesla is more than a car company and its stock has more upside.\nMorgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas says Tesla shouldn’t be valued as a legacy car-maker. As cars become more connected to the internet, that opens up a lot of other addressable markets and Tesla is well-positioned to take advantage of those new opportunities.\nSaid Jonas in a Bloomberg report:\n\n “In the process, it takes you away from comparing Tesla to car companies and should rather be compared to software-as-a-service companies.”\n\nThis divergence is evident fromInvesting.compoll of analystsregarding Tesla’s share price. Of 35 analysts, 15 have a buy rating on the stock, while 12 have neutral ratings and eight have a sell recommendation, with a 12-month consensus price target of $730.59.\nChart: Investing.com\nFor investors, who look to technical signals to help make short-term investment decisions, the most popular indicators—moving averages, oscillators and pivots—are currently providing a buy signal, especially after Tesla’s strong earnings beat.\nBottom Line\nTesla has remained the only credible player in the high-quality EV market in recent years, but that equation is changing quickly after the entry of new players and the massive spending plans being put forward by the legacy car-makers. These dynamics don’t justify the company’s current valuation, which assumes that Tesla will become the biggest seller of cars in the U.S., while competitors won’t be able to succeed.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":266349497049224,"gmtCreate":1706062378642,"gmtModify":1706062383639,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"For this amount, i would go for US growth stocks. Wont touch dividend stocks until a higher amount as the dividends would be low.","listText":"For this amount, i would go for US growth stocks. Wont touch dividend stocks until a higher amount as the dividends would be low.","text":"For this amount, i would go for US growth stocks. Wont touch dividend stocks until a higher amount as the dividends would be low.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/266349497049224","repostId":"2405348443","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2405348443","pubTimestamp":1706060578,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2405348443?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-01-24 09:42","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"4 Reliable Dividend Stocks I Will Buy if I Had S$40,000","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2405348443","media":"The Smart Investor","summary":"Looking for dependable dividends? These four stocks may be the ones for your income-generating portfolio.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>It should be great news for many of you as the New Year arrives.</p><p>Yes, I am talking about the declaration of year-end bonuses and the receipt of annual wage supplements.</p><p>Armed with this extra cash, you can go shopping for solid, dividend-paying stocks to boost your passive income.</p><p>We introduce four dependable dividend-paying stocks that you can consider for your buy watchlist.</p><p>If I had an extra S$40,000 to spare, I would allocate this amount equally to these four dividend stocks.</p><h2 id=\"id_44287284\">Haw Par Corporation Ltd (SGX: H02)</h2><p>Haw Par Corporation is a conglomerate with four key divisions – Healthcare, represented by the famous Tiger Balm brand, Leisure, Investments, and Property.</p><p>The group has been a consistent payer of dividends over the years.</p><p>Haw Par paid out an annual dividend of S$0.20 per share from 2010 to 2017.</p><p>In 2018, the group paid a special dividend of S$0.85 and raised its regular dividend to S$0.30 to celebrate its 50th Anniversary.</p><p>The healthcare group has maintained this S$0.30 annual dividend through the pandemic year of 2020 through 2022.</p><p>For the first half of 2023 (1H 2023), Haw Par reported a strong recovery in its business with revenue rising 16.3% year on year to S$111.1 million.</p><p>Net profit for 1H 2023 climbed nearly 35% year on year to S$104.1 million.</p><p>Haw Par raised its interim dividend from S$0.15 to S$0.20, bringing its annualised dividend to S$0.40.</p><p>Looking ahead, the group should maintain this dividend as the business generates consistent positive free cash flow.</p><h2 id=\"id_2442079273\">Boustead Singapore Limited (SGX: F9D)</h2><p>Boustead Singapore Limited, or BSL, is an engineering group with four divisions – energy engineering, real estate, geospatial, and healthcare.</p><p>The group has a track record of paying out annual dividends since fiscal 2003 (Boustead has a 31 March fiscal year end)</p><p>Since fiscal 2018 (FY2018), BSL has paid out an annual dividend of S$0.03 per share and maintained this for FY2019 and FY2020.</p><p>In FY2021, the engineering group raised its regular dividend to S$0.04 while paying out a special dividend of S$0.04 because of the spin-off of a private investment fund by its subsidiary, Boustead Projects Limited.</p><p>Subsequently, FY2022 and FY2023 saw the group maintain its S$0.04 per year dividend.</p><p>For the first half of fiscal 2024 (1H FY2024) ending 30 September 2023, BSL saw revenue shoot up 49% year on year to S$367.9 million.</p><p>Net profit (adjusted for one-off items) soared 89% year on year to S$25.8 million.</p><p>The engineering group maintained its S$0.015 interim dividend on the back of healthy positive free cash flow.</p><h2 id=\"id_651702123\">CSE Global Ltd (SGX: 544)</h2><p>CSE Global is a systems integrator providing automation, communications, and electrification solutions spanning various industries.</p><p>The group has a presence across 16 countries with close to 2,000 employees globally.</p><p>The engineering firm has paid out a consistent annual dividend of S$0.0275 for the past five years from 2018 to 2022.</p><p>This consistency can be attributed to CSE Global’s track record in snagging new orders and its smooth delivery of contracts to its clients.</p><p>For the first nine months of 2023 (9M 2023), the group saw revenue jump 32.6% year on year to S$534.7 million.</p><p>Its order book stood at S$638 million as of 30 September 2023, up 55% year on year.</p><p>CSE Global maintained its interim dividend of S$0.0125 for 1H 2023 with net profit more than doubling year on year to S$11 million.</p><h2 id=\"id_1640915372\">Civmec Ltd (SGX: P9D)</h2><p>Civmec is an integrated construction and engineering services provider to the Energy, Resources, Infrastructure, and Marine &amp; Defence sectors.</p><p>Its capabilities include heavy engineering, shipbuilding, site civil works, and maintenance, among others.</p><p>The engineering firm has been steadily raising its annual dividend over the past few years.</p><p>In FY2020 (Civmec has a 30 June year-end), the total dividend was A$0.01 per share.</p><p>This dividend was maintained in FY2021 but FY2022 saw the dividend tripled to A$0.03 per share.</p><p>For FY2023, Civmec’s annual dividend jumped to A$0.05 per share.</p><p>This steady increase in dividends showcases the engineering firm’s commitment to increasing its dividend payout in line with its earnings.</p><p>The engineering group delivered a solid set of earnings for FY2023.</p><p>Revenue inched up 2.7% year on year to A$830.9 million while net profit increased by 13.7% year on year to S$57.7 million.</p><p>Its order book also grew by 10.6% year on year to A$1.1 billion.</p></body></html>","source":"thesmartinvestor_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Reliable Dividend Stocks I Will Buy if I Had S$40,000</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Reliable Dividend Stocks I Will Buy if I Had S$40,000\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-01-24 09:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/4-reliable-dividend-stocks-i-will-buy-if-i-had-s40000/><strong>The Smart Investor</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It should be great news for many of you as the New Year arrives.Yes, I am talking about the declaration of year-end bonuses and the receipt of annual wage supplements.Armed with this extra cash, you ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/4-reliable-dividend-stocks-i-will-buy-if-i-had-s40000/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"P9D.SI":"CIVMEC公司","H02.SI":"虎豹企业","BK6520":"工商业服务概念","544.SI":"CSE 环球","BK6508":"软件和IT服务概念","BK6045":"建筑与工程","BK6506":"制药与医学研究概念","BK6051":"信息科技咨询与其它服务","F9D.SI":"宝德新加坡","BK6079":"制药"},"source_url":"https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/4-reliable-dividend-stocks-i-will-buy-if-i-had-s40000/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2405348443","content_text":"It should be great news for many of you as the New Year arrives.Yes, I am talking about the declaration of year-end bonuses and the receipt of annual wage supplements.Armed with this extra cash, you can go shopping for solid, dividend-paying stocks to boost your passive income.We introduce four dependable dividend-paying stocks that you can consider for your buy watchlist.If I had an extra S$40,000 to spare, I would allocate this amount equally to these four dividend stocks.Haw Par Corporation Ltd (SGX: H02)Haw Par Corporation is a conglomerate with four key divisions – Healthcare, represented by the famous Tiger Balm brand, Leisure, Investments, and Property.The group has been a consistent payer of dividends over the years.Haw Par paid out an annual dividend of S$0.20 per share from 2010 to 2017.In 2018, the group paid a special dividend of S$0.85 and raised its regular dividend to S$0.30 to celebrate its 50th Anniversary.The healthcare group has maintained this S$0.30 annual dividend through the pandemic year of 2020 through 2022.For the first half of 2023 (1H 2023), Haw Par reported a strong recovery in its business with revenue rising 16.3% year on year to S$111.1 million.Net profit for 1H 2023 climbed nearly 35% year on year to S$104.1 million.Haw Par raised its interim dividend from S$0.15 to S$0.20, bringing its annualised dividend to S$0.40.Looking ahead, the group should maintain this dividend as the business generates consistent positive free cash flow.Boustead Singapore Limited (SGX: F9D)Boustead Singapore Limited, or BSL, is an engineering group with four divisions – energy engineering, real estate, geospatial, and healthcare.The group has a track record of paying out annual dividends since fiscal 2003 (Boustead has a 31 March fiscal year end)Since fiscal 2018 (FY2018), BSL has paid out an annual dividend of S$0.03 per share and maintained this for FY2019 and FY2020.In FY2021, the engineering group raised its regular dividend to S$0.04 while paying out a special dividend of S$0.04 because of the spin-off of a private investment fund by its subsidiary, Boustead Projects Limited.Subsequently, FY2022 and FY2023 saw the group maintain its S$0.04 per year dividend.For the first half of fiscal 2024 (1H FY2024) ending 30 September 2023, BSL saw revenue shoot up 49% year on year to S$367.9 million.Net profit (adjusted for one-off items) soared 89% year on year to S$25.8 million.The engineering group maintained its S$0.015 interim dividend on the back of healthy positive free cash flow.CSE Global Ltd (SGX: 544)CSE Global is a systems integrator providing automation, communications, and electrification solutions spanning various industries.The group has a presence across 16 countries with close to 2,000 employees globally.The engineering firm has paid out a consistent annual dividend of S$0.0275 for the past five years from 2018 to 2022.This consistency can be attributed to CSE Global’s track record in snagging new orders and its smooth delivery of contracts to its clients.For the first nine months of 2023 (9M 2023), the group saw revenue jump 32.6% year on year to S$534.7 million.Its order book stood at S$638 million as of 30 September 2023, up 55% year on year.CSE Global maintained its interim dividend of S$0.0125 for 1H 2023 with net profit more than doubling year on year to S$11 million.Civmec Ltd (SGX: P9D)Civmec is an integrated construction and engineering services provider to the Energy, Resources, Infrastructure, and Marine & Defence sectors.Its capabilities include heavy engineering, shipbuilding, site civil works, and maintenance, among others.The engineering firm has been steadily raising its annual dividend over the past few years.In FY2020 (Civmec has a 30 June year-end), the total dividend was A$0.01 per share.This dividend was maintained in FY2021 but FY2022 saw the dividend tripled to A$0.03 per share.For FY2023, Civmec’s annual dividend jumped to A$0.05 per share.This steady increase in dividends showcases the engineering firm’s commitment to increasing its dividend payout in line with its earnings.The engineering group delivered a solid set of earnings for FY2023.Revenue inched up 2.7% year on year to A$830.9 million while net profit increased by 13.7% year on year to S$57.7 million.Its order book also grew by 10.6% year on year to A$1.1 billion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":42,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":241315152887880,"gmtCreate":1699935716619,"gmtModify":1699935721765,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh crap time to sell","listText":"Oh crap time to sell","text":"Oh crap time to sell","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/241315152887880","repostId":"2383058199","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947113450,"gmtCreate":1682664369771,"gmtModify":1682664374010,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Flow back to HK.","listText":"Flow back to HK.","text":"Flow back to HK.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947113450","repostId":"1190454623","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1190454623","pubTimestamp":1682661402,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190454623?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-04-28 13:56","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore Says Foreign Residents’ Deposits Fell by S$22 Billion","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190454623","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Residents outside Singapore pulled billions in deposits last month amid financial turmoil triggered ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Residents outside Singapore pulled billions in deposits last month amid financial turmoil triggered by the collapse of several banks globally. </p><p>Foreign resident deposits saw an outflow of S$22.2 billion ($16.6 billion) to S$521.8 billion in March, falling to the lowest level since July, according to data by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. </p><p>Total outstanding loans and advances by commercial banks including bills financing dropped by about S$7 billion to S$796.87 billion, the lowest level since August 2021. This came after the central bank tightened monetary policy five times in a row, before keeping its policy settings unchanged this month.</p><h3></h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb006bd5aaf80119776838329f4fc42a\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"456\"/></p><p>Earlier this week, the monetary authority warned “prospects in the financial sector have weakened further amid turbulence from the US banking industry,” fanning fears of a broader contagion in the banking system and increased downside risks to expansion. </p><p>Economic growth is expected to remain subdued in 2023 due to a slowing external outlook, persistent inflation and restrictive financial conditions, it said. </p><p>In a separate labor report Friday, Singapore’s unemployment eased to an eight-year low of 1.8% in the first quarter, while retrenchments rose for a third consecutive quarter. Employment growth is likely to ease and remain uneven across sectors, as global economic headwinds weigh on labor demand going forward, particularly for outward-oriented sectors, the Ministry of Manpower said.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore Says Foreign Residents’ Deposits Fell by S$22 Billion</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore Says Foreign Residents’ Deposits Fell by S$22 Billion\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-28 13:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-28/singapore-says-foreign-residents-deposits-fell-by-s-22-billion><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Residents outside Singapore pulled billions in deposits last month amid financial turmoil triggered by the collapse of several banks globally. Foreign resident deposits saw an outflow of S$22.2 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-28/singapore-says-foreign-residents-deposits-fell-by-s-22-billion\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-28/singapore-says-foreign-residents-deposits-fell-by-s-22-billion","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190454623","content_text":"Residents outside Singapore pulled billions in deposits last month amid financial turmoil triggered by the collapse of several banks globally. Foreign resident deposits saw an outflow of S$22.2 billion ($16.6 billion) to S$521.8 billion in March, falling to the lowest level since July, according to data by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Total outstanding loans and advances by commercial banks including bills financing dropped by about S$7 billion to S$796.87 billion, the lowest level since August 2021. This came after the central bank tightened monetary policy five times in a row, before keeping its policy settings unchanged this month.Earlier this week, the monetary authority warned “prospects in the financial sector have weakened further amid turbulence from the US banking industry,” fanning fears of a broader contagion in the banking system and increased downside risks to expansion. Economic growth is expected to remain subdued in 2023 due to a slowing external outlook, persistent inflation and restrictive financial conditions, it said. In a separate labor report Friday, Singapore’s unemployment eased to an eight-year low of 1.8% in the first quarter, while retrenchments rose for a third consecutive quarter. Employment growth is likely to ease and remain uneven across sectors, as global economic headwinds weigh on labor demand going forward, particularly for outward-oriented sectors, the Ministry of Manpower said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817113504,"gmtCreate":1630917445808,"gmtModify":1676530420197,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Definitely. A lot of demand will come in.","listText":"Definitely. A lot of demand will come in.","text":"Definitely. A lot of demand will come in.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/817113504","repostId":"1170878921","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808157299,"gmtCreate":1627566433311,"gmtModify":1703492506951,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"donkey Kong","listText":"donkey Kong","text":"donkey Kong","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/808157299","repostId":"809493657","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":809493657,"gmtCreate":1627384774479,"gmtModify":1703488847004,"author":{"id":"3562498882012320","authorId":"3562498882012320","name":"Fartyclown","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98da8c7130a89aa96f8dfc0e63f22fd3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Every time the earning report&nbsp;comes out it falls.If only Elon can do push his own company stocks more than bitcoin.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Every time the earning report&nbsp;comes out it falls.If only Elon can do push his own company stocks more than bitcoin.&nbsp;","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Every time the earning report comes out it falls.If only Elon can do push his own company stocks more than bitcoin.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809493657","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126801245,"gmtCreate":1624549661787,"gmtModify":1703840198720,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the moooooon","listText":"To the moooooon","text":"To the moooooon","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18046f84d0f8fd69b63e9341a2e91e43","width":"1440","height":"3429"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126801245","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":254044749779136,"gmtCreate":1703059472742,"gmtModify":1703059477267,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alrdy crashing now. Too little too late","listText":"Alrdy crashing now. Too little too late","text":"Alrdy crashing now. Too little too late","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/254044749779136","repostId":"1163836111","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":218757236908136,"gmtCreate":1694433247760,"gmtModify":1694433255378,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice day","listText":"Nice day","text":"Nice day","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f9e997fd0bdd0bf2e7e60f09245762cd","width":"596","height":"1005"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/218757236908136","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941123323,"gmtCreate":1680065226163,"gmtModify":1680065230023,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The aim of tesla is&nbsp;","listText":"The aim of tesla is&nbsp;","text":"The aim of tesla is","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941123323","repostId":"1129951895","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1129951895","pubTimestamp":1680056088,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129951895?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-29 10:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock - I Have Warned You","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129951895","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla, Inc.'s prices for the most expensive models have been reduced.This is obviously a prob","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Tesla, Inc.&#39;s prices for the most expensive models have been reduced.</li><li>This is obviously a problem for the EV maker&#39;s profit margins.</li><li>A recession is near, and the EV market is not going through its best days.</li><li>Tesla stock is ridiculously overvalued.</li><li>I would not recommend to short sell Tesla stock, either.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15402ca3ce706835733f8b286527cedb\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>jetcityimage</p><p><b>Tesla, Inc.</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has gained sincemy last article. Yet, the recent banking crisis and, most importantly, the fact the company was forced to decrease its Model S and Model X prices make me somewhat concerned. I mentioned inmy previous article that as a popular stock,Tesla might well risein value. However, the fundamentals were not there and are even worse now. But let me explain this later on.</p><h2>Tesla&#39;s news</h2><p>Let me first mention that Model S and Model X models are considered to beluxurious. In my view, electric vehicles generally are considered to be premium-class goods. Indeed, it is much cheaper to buy a used car powered on normal petrol than it is to buy an electric vehicle (&#34;EV&#34;). But Model S and Model X are more expensive than other cars produced by Tesla. The demand for such premiumgoods produced by Tesla is normally inelastic to price cuts. Let me explain.</p><p>Higher-income, environmentally cautious consumers that also like Elon Musk&#39;s brand are likely to be Tesla&#39;s potential customers. They want to buy a higher-class good and are not prevented from doing so even if the price of this good rises somewhat. But recently Tesla&#39;s management even had to decrease the prices of its higher-class cars<i>twice</i>. To me, this signals a substantial fall in demand. And the management is doing the best it can to somehow mitigate the situation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc37395688a1638838e425bc1117e759\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Oilprice.com</p><p>Please have a lookat the table above. Before January 12, Tesla&#39;s Model X Plaid used to cost $138,990. Now its price is only $109 990. This is Tesla&#39;s most expensive model, and the costs to produce it are also the highest of the whole product range. The prices for other models were also substantially cut.</p><p>Obviously, this means that Tesla&#39;s profit margins should fall even lower. The impact of these price cuts on<i>long-term</i>demand still remains to be seen.</p><p>Theinvestor&#39;s presentationalso signaled that Tesla did not provide specifics about the company&#39;s new models. There is nothing tragic about a<i>conservative</i>company not coming up with new products and outstanding innovations every year, indeed. But in order to compensate for this, it has to be a very stable cash cow to provide real value for its investors. Tesla, however, positions itself as a high-growth company but has not<i>recently</i>come up with any innovations. Instead, a lot has been said about the company&#39;s past achievements.</p><h2>The industries Tesla operates in</h2><p>I would rather agree with the thesis that the industries Tesla operates in, namely electric vehicles, energy storage, and artificial intelligence, all have a bright future. After all, the green energy trend is very popular in many countries. Climate-conscious consumers are all of Tesla&#39;s existing and potential customers. However, there are too many unknowns, in my opinion.</p><p>The whole electric vehicle market is facing fairly thin profit margins. But it is still quite strange to say that only Tesla would be the one to gain as soon as the whole sector manages to lower the costs and boost the revenues. I know many Tesla fans expect Elon Musk&#39;s company to become the next Apple (AAPL) in terms of profitability and cash reserves. They also say Tesla would maintain its leading market position and become a cash cow. But too many assumptions are made here.</p><p>A relatively small proportion of Tesla&#39;s business is indeed devoted to energy storage. Obviously, quite little revenue is generated by this. Although this business division has been showing excellent growth, the company reportedly postponed its solar roof installations. Moreover, in autumn 2022 one of its Megapack batteries caught fire at a power storage site in California.</p><p>As concerns Tesla&#39;s artificial intelligence technologies, the company is not monetizing these just yet. It has splendid projects to use AI to cut production costs, but these plans have not come true just yet. Moreover, artificial intelligence technologies are quite new and we cannot accurately predict just how profitable they may be for Tesla. Yet, the valuations take these mega-plans into account.</p><h2>Macroeconomic risks for Tesla stock</h2><p>The risks for Tesla stock are obvious, in my view, now when the banking system is not going through its best days. TSLA is a typical glamorous and overvalued stock. It is rising during fair days and is doing bad when the global economy is suffering. The Fed still predicts one more interest hike this year in spite of the whole banking turmoil. All investors, myself included, would not do well in that case. But particularly at risk are companies that are not very profitable. Also, stocks that are overvalued would not do particularly well. The most obvious example is that of TSLA stock. I will explain this in the next section of my article.</p><h2>Valuations</h2><p>Tesla&#39;s stock is still overvalued in spite of the fact it is trading sufficiently below its all-time highs.</p><p>Let&#39;s start with the company&#39;s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio history.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cad2e820c78b04f89b43d3fdd949bf1d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data byYCharts</p><p>Sure, compared to what it used to be before, TSLA stock seems to be excellent value for money. But a P/E of 53 is unreasonable, even for a high-tech company with a bright future.</p><p>The same is true of the company&#39;s price-to-free cash flow (P/CF) ratio.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dacbf517cc9f522da89e3c5d66eaee2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data byYCharts</p><p>The current P/FCF of 88 is extremely high, especially given the fact the company&#39;s cash position has improved.</p><p>To finish off my valuation analysis, let me also show you Tesla&#39;s price-to-book (P/B) ratio graph.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/632086a60cde6f6501cd8eefe9a3cb58\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data byYCharts</p><p>Just a friendly reminder that a &#34;good&#34; P/B ratio should ideally be between 1 and 3. Tesla&#39;s is almost 14.</p><p>So, TSLA is extremely overvalued, especially if we assume a recession is near.</p><h2>Risks to my thesis</h2><ul><li>The first risk is the fact Tesla stock is very popular and many investors seek opportunities to add to their positions.</li><li>The Fed will start easing, thus preventing recession. This is obviously bullish for all companies, not just Tesla.</li><li>Tesla will become the &#34;next Apple&#34; in terms of debt, cash, profitability, and market size. However, it is still a risk to pay so much money for a company that is forced to substantially reduce its profit margins and is facing so much competition.</li><li>After all, the company&#39;s cash position has improved. The revolving credit facility has been extended and Tesla&#39;s credit rating is finally one notch above junk.</li><li>Tesla has some new technologies, including artificial intelligence and smart production innovations. I gave the company credit for these inmy previous article.</li></ul><h2>Conclusion</h2><p>Overall, Tesla, Inc. is being forced to cut its pricing even for the most luxurious models, which is quite a worrying sign. TSLA stock is overvalued. We might face a recession in the near future, which would mean even more downside for both Tesla&#39;s EV business and its stock price. At the same time, I would not short-sell TSLA stock, either, given Tesla&#39;s cash and debt improvements. So, overall, I remain cautiously bearish on TSLA stock.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock - I Have Warned You</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock - I Have Warned You\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-29 10:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4590615-tesla-stock-i-have-warned-you><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla, Inc.'s prices for the most expensive models have been reduced.This is obviously a problem for the EV maker's profit margins.A recession is near, and the EV market is not going through ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4590615-tesla-stock-i-have-warned-you\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4590615-tesla-stock-i-have-warned-you","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1129951895","content_text":"SummaryTesla, Inc.'s prices for the most expensive models have been reduced.This is obviously a problem for the EV maker's profit margins.A recession is near, and the EV market is not going through its best days.Tesla stock is ridiculously overvalued.I would not recommend to short sell Tesla stock, either.jetcityimageTesla, Inc.(NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has gained sincemy last article. Yet, the recent banking crisis and, most importantly, the fact the company was forced to decrease its Model S and Model X prices make me somewhat concerned. I mentioned inmy previous article that as a popular stock,Tesla might well risein value. However, the fundamentals were not there and are even worse now. But let me explain this later on.Tesla's newsLet me first mention that Model S and Model X models are considered to beluxurious. In my view, electric vehicles generally are considered to be premium-class goods. Indeed, it is much cheaper to buy a used car powered on normal petrol than it is to buy an electric vehicle (\"EV\"). But Model S and Model X are more expensive than other cars produced by Tesla. The demand for such premiumgoods produced by Tesla is normally inelastic to price cuts. Let me explain.Higher-income, environmentally cautious consumers that also like Elon Musk's brand are likely to be Tesla's potential customers. They want to buy a higher-class good and are not prevented from doing so even if the price of this good rises somewhat. But recently Tesla's management even had to decrease the prices of its higher-class carstwice. To me, this signals a substantial fall in demand. And the management is doing the best it can to somehow mitigate the situation.Oilprice.comPlease have a lookat the table above. Before January 12, Tesla's Model X Plaid used to cost $138,990. Now its price is only $109 990. This is Tesla's most expensive model, and the costs to produce it are also the highest of the whole product range. The prices for other models were also substantially cut.Obviously, this means that Tesla's profit margins should fall even lower. The impact of these price cuts onlong-termdemand still remains to be seen.Theinvestor's presentationalso signaled that Tesla did not provide specifics about the company's new models. There is nothing tragic about aconservativecompany not coming up with new products and outstanding innovations every year, indeed. But in order to compensate for this, it has to be a very stable cash cow to provide real value for its investors. Tesla, however, positions itself as a high-growth company but has notrecentlycome up with any innovations. Instead, a lot has been said about the company's past achievements.The industries Tesla operates inI would rather agree with the thesis that the industries Tesla operates in, namely electric vehicles, energy storage, and artificial intelligence, all have a bright future. After all, the green energy trend is very popular in many countries. Climate-conscious consumers are all of Tesla's existing and potential customers. However, there are too many unknowns, in my opinion.The whole electric vehicle market is facing fairly thin profit margins. But it is still quite strange to say that only Tesla would be the one to gain as soon as the whole sector manages to lower the costs and boost the revenues. I know many Tesla fans expect Elon Musk's company to become the next Apple (AAPL) in terms of profitability and cash reserves. They also say Tesla would maintain its leading market position and become a cash cow. But too many assumptions are made here.A relatively small proportion of Tesla's business is indeed devoted to energy storage. Obviously, quite little revenue is generated by this. Although this business division has been showing excellent growth, the company reportedly postponed its solar roof installations. Moreover, in autumn 2022 one of its Megapack batteries caught fire at a power storage site in California.As concerns Tesla's artificial intelligence technologies, the company is not monetizing these just yet. It has splendid projects to use AI to cut production costs, but these plans have not come true just yet. Moreover, artificial intelligence technologies are quite new and we cannot accurately predict just how profitable they may be for Tesla. Yet, the valuations take these mega-plans into account.Macroeconomic risks for Tesla stockThe risks for Tesla stock are obvious, in my view, now when the banking system is not going through its best days. TSLA is a typical glamorous and overvalued stock. It is rising during fair days and is doing bad when the global economy is suffering. The Fed still predicts one more interest hike this year in spite of the whole banking turmoil. All investors, myself included, would not do well in that case. But particularly at risk are companies that are not very profitable. Also, stocks that are overvalued would not do particularly well. The most obvious example is that of TSLA stock. I will explain this in the next section of my article.ValuationsTesla's stock is still overvalued in spite of the fact it is trading sufficiently below its all-time highs.Let's start with the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio history.Data byYChartsSure, compared to what it used to be before, TSLA stock seems to be excellent value for money. But a P/E of 53 is unreasonable, even for a high-tech company with a bright future.The same is true of the company's price-to-free cash flow (P/CF) ratio.Data byYChartsThe current P/FCF of 88 is extremely high, especially given the fact the company's cash position has improved.To finish off my valuation analysis, let me also show you Tesla's price-to-book (P/B) ratio graph.Data byYChartsJust a friendly reminder that a \"good\" P/B ratio should ideally be between 1 and 3. Tesla's is almost 14.So, TSLA is extremely overvalued, especially if we assume a recession is near.Risks to my thesisThe first risk is the fact Tesla stock is very popular and many investors seek opportunities to add to their positions.The Fed will start easing, thus preventing recession. This is obviously bullish for all companies, not just Tesla.Tesla will become the \"next Apple\" in terms of debt, cash, profitability, and market size. However, it is still a risk to pay so much money for a company that is forced to substantially reduce its profit margins and is facing so much competition.After all, the company's cash position has improved. The revolving credit facility has been extended and Tesla's credit rating is finally one notch above junk.Tesla has some new technologies, including artificial intelligence and smart production innovations. I gave the company credit for these inmy previous article.ConclusionOverall, Tesla, Inc. is being forced to cut its pricing even for the most luxurious models, which is quite a worrying sign. TSLA stock is overvalued. We might face a recession in the near future, which would mean even more downside for both Tesla's EV business and its stock price. At the same time, I would not short-sell TSLA stock, either, given Tesla's cash and debt improvements. So, overall, I remain cautiously bearish on TSLA stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955163987,"gmtCreate":1675284630050,"gmtModify":1676538989437,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ape together strong","listText":"Ape together strong","text":"Ape together strong","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955163987","repostId":"2308992038","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":86,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9093403907,"gmtCreate":1643680455023,"gmtModify":1676533843180,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy CNY","listText":"Happy CNY","text":"Happy CNY","images":[{"img":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/a1aa3c3c6f62676f1cd1e82191fbe1a6","width":"720","height":"1280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093403907","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}