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2021-01-11
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美股随便投都涨？泡沫破灭的钟声正在敲响
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22:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股随便投都涨？泡沫破灭的钟声正在敲响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120677382","media":"金十数据","summary":"就像在赌博中下重注往往可以获得回报一样，在股市中，回报最高的股票往往也是风险最高的。\n上周，特斯拉CEO马斯克在社交媒体上提到，由于WhatsApp改变用户隐私条款，建议改用Signal通讯软件，殊不","content":"<p>就像在赌博中下重注往往可以获得回报一样，在股市中，回报最高的股票往往也是风险最高的。</p>\n<p>上周，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>CEO马斯克在社交媒体上提到，由于WhatsApp改变用户隐私条款，建议改用Signal通讯软件，殊不知另外一家“撞名”的场外交易公司Signal Advance的股价在1月11日飙升了12倍。</p>\n<p>随着纳斯达克100指数在两年内翻了一番，上周三（1月6日）美国看涨交易量创新高，日交易量在历史上排第四。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f54c9cb4ba71ee2adafaa5f3ffa20994\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\"></p>\n<p>市场似乎总是在随波逐流，在美联储宽松的货币政策、疫苗的推广以及市场情绪转向乐观的情况下，从散户到机构投资者，所有人都在争相挤入美股市场，试图从这已持续10个月的“融涨”中获利，但赢家只能是少数。</p>\n<p>这种“融涨”狂潮可能会持续数周甚至数月，至于它何时才会消退，难以进行预测，但股市泡沫警告已经四起。Leuthold Group的首席投资官Doug Ramsey在1月8日写给客户的一份报告中写道：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “这是一种全面的投资狂潮，牛市行情处于初期并不意味着现在买入更‘安全’。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>但彭博社称，就目前来看，追逐行情的确是可以获利的。<b>纳斯达克100指数在新年交易首日市盈率就达到近40倍，创下两个月来的最大涨幅。另一方面，对冲股票的成本一直很高。特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）的上市热潮也在继续，上周五又有12家公司提交了IPO申请。</b></p>\n<p>Miller Tabak+的首席市场策略师Matt Maley说，他认为上周华盛顿的骚乱至少会减缓这种狂热：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “目前市场充斥着太多的泡沫。在短短两个月的时间里，美股市场上涨了16%，自3月份以来上涨了70%，国会的骚乱事件本应打压市场。10%-15%的回调才是健康的。”\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6721cb86c85333e9d17d74f2891859e3\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\"></p>\n<p>要说真正的泡沫，其实是期权市场。<b><u>将于1月15日到期、行权价为1000美元的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>看涨期权是上周五交易最频繁的期权，交易量翻了五倍，收于9.15美元，而上周的开盘价仅为53美分。</u></b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>称，散户似乎是推动这一趋势的主力军。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>指出，根据纽约证券交易所（NYSE）保证金账户数据，12月份的保证金账户数量较前几个月有强劲增长。<b>摩根大通表示，在去年12月的最后一周出现季节性下跌后，散户买入看涨期权的热潮又强势回归，场外交易的散户也是如此。</b></p>\n<p>周五，以Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou为首的策略师在一份报告中写道：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “散户再次为市场注入流动性，这与去年第二季度的情况类似。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>鉴于市场预期美国政府会进一步加大财政刺激力度，这种情况可能会在未来几周持续下去。一些交易所已经嗅到了商机。芝期所一直在为散户定制投资方案，去年6月为散户量身推出了迷你标普指数期权，来增加流动性。</p>\n<p>芝期所衍生品和全球客户服务主管Arianne Criqui在去年11月接受采访时表示，该公司 “相信投资者需求会持续下去，因此努力推出一些能满足投资者需求变化的产品。”</p>\n<p>Sundial Capital Research的Jason Goepfert也自12月底以来一直在强调，散户在期权市场上的影响力很大。他引用了期权交易量和期权价格的数据，<b><u>其中散户参与者占54%，机构参与者占28%。</u></b>Goepfert在上周二的一份报告中写道：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “分析真实资金和杠杆工具的指标是最可靠的情绪指标。观察一些可供投资者使用的杠杆率最高的投资工具后，我们发现，目前情况不容乐观，有大量证据表明存在着极端投机的情况。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>鉴于现金和债券等许多资产的收益率处于历史低位，投资者已经做好了大举买入风险较高资产的准备。他们开始关注股票和期权，期望获得其他资产所不能给予的收益。</p>\n<p>Susquehanna的衍生品策略师Chris Murphy在11月指出，<b>期权组合综合考虑了高波动性和高估值，“可能是提高收益率的一种好方法”。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3ec86bac1933f2610ec7bd6b439a6a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"585\"></p>\n<p>在上周的一份研究报告中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>的策略师利用更普遍的股市指标来证明熊市的迹象，<b><u>结果发现63%的指标吻合，包括基金的资金外流、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBOE\">芝加哥期权交易所</a>VIX指数（CBOE Volatility Index）上升以及消费者信心高涨。</u></b></p>\n<p>不过泡沫已经膨胀到临近破灭的边缘，并不等同于股市毁灭。尽管VIX指数创下了三个月来的新高，但仍低于2018年9月份79%的峰值水平。</p>\n<p>Savita Subramanian等美银策略分析师写道：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “熊市信号（通常指在标普500指数达到峰值之前触发的信号）越来越明显，我们预测，2021年标普500指数的回报率将会很低。”\n</blockquote>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股随便投都涨？泡沫破灭的钟声正在敲响</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股随便投都涨？泡沫破灭的钟声正在敲响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-01-11 22:06 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/69208><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>就像在赌博中下重注往往可以获得回报一样，在股市中，回报最高的股票往往也是风险最高的。\n上周，特斯拉CEO马斯克在社交媒体上提到，由于WhatsApp改变用户隐私条款，建议改用Signal通讯软件，殊不知另外一家“撞名”的场外交易公司Signal Advance的股价在1月11日飙升了12倍。\n随着纳斯达克100指数在两年内翻了一番，上周三（1月6日）美国看涨交易量创新高，日交易量在历史上排第四。\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/69208\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b3b5e72649367d0aafd9bcbbca9bcd1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/69208","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120677382","content_text":"就像在赌博中下重注往往可以获得回报一样，在股市中，回报最高的股票往往也是风险最高的。\n上周，特斯拉CEO马斯克在社交媒体上提到，由于WhatsApp改变用户隐私条款，建议改用Signal通讯软件，殊不知另外一家“撞名”的场外交易公司Signal Advance的股价在1月11日飙升了12倍。\n随着纳斯达克100指数在两年内翻了一番，上周三（1月6日）美国看涨交易量创新高，日交易量在历史上排第四。\n\n市场似乎总是在随波逐流，在美联储宽松的货币政策、疫苗的推广以及市场情绪转向乐观的情况下，从散户到机构投资者，所有人都在争相挤入美股市场，试图从这已持续10个月的“融涨”中获利，但赢家只能是少数。\n这种“融涨”狂潮可能会持续数周甚至数月，至于它何时才会消退，难以进行预测，但股市泡沫警告已经四起。Leuthold Group的首席投资官Doug Ramsey在1月8日写给客户的一份报告中写道：\n\n “这是一种全面的投资狂潮，牛市行情处于初期并不意味着现在买入更‘安全’。”\n\n但彭博社称，就目前来看，追逐行情的确是可以获利的。纳斯达克100指数在新年交易首日市盈率就达到近40倍，创下两个月来的最大涨幅。另一方面，对冲股票的成本一直很高。特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）的上市热潮也在继续，上周五又有12家公司提交了IPO申请。\nMiller Tabak+的首席市场策略师Matt Maley说，他认为上周华盛顿的骚乱至少会减缓这种狂热：\n\n “目前市场充斥着太多的泡沫。在短短两个月的时间里，美股市场上涨了16%，自3月份以来上涨了70%，国会的骚乱事件本应打压市场。10%-15%的回调才是健康的。”\n\n\n要说真正的泡沫，其实是期权市场。将于1月15日到期、行权价为1000美元的特斯拉看涨期权是上周五交易最频繁的期权，交易量翻了五倍，收于9.15美元，而上周的开盘价仅为53美分。\n摩根大通称，散户似乎是推动这一趋势的主力军。摩根大通指出，根据纽约证券交易所（NYSE）保证金账户数据，12月份的保证金账户数量较前几个月有强劲增长。摩根大通表示，在去年12月的最后一周出现季节性下跌后，散户买入看涨期权的热潮又强势回归，场外交易的散户也是如此。\n周五，以Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou为首的策略师在一份报告中写道：\n\n “散户再次为市场注入流动性，这与去年第二季度的情况类似。”\n\n鉴于市场预期美国政府会进一步加大财政刺激力度，这种情况可能会在未来几周持续下去。一些交易所已经嗅到了商机。芝期所一直在为散户定制投资方案，去年6月为散户量身推出了迷你标普指数期权，来增加流动性。\n芝期所衍生品和全球客户服务主管Arianne Criqui在去年11月接受采访时表示，该公司 “相信投资者需求会持续下去，因此努力推出一些能满足投资者需求变化的产品。”\nSundial Capital Research的Jason Goepfert也自12月底以来一直在强调，散户在期权市场上的影响力很大。他引用了期权交易量和期权价格的数据，其中散户参与者占54%，机构参与者占28%。Goepfert在上周二的一份报告中写道：\n\n “分析真实资金和杠杆工具的指标是最可靠的情绪指标。观察一些可供投资者使用的杠杆率最高的投资工具后，我们发现，目前情况不容乐观，有大量证据表明存在着极端投机的情况。”\n\n鉴于现金和债券等许多资产的收益率处于历史低位，投资者已经做好了大举买入风险较高资产的准备。他们开始关注股票和期权，期望获得其他资产所不能给予的收益。\nSusquehanna的衍生品策略师Chris Murphy在11月指出，期权组合综合考虑了高波动性和高估值，“可能是提高收益率的一种好方法”。\n\n在上周的一份研究报告中，美国银行的策略师利用更普遍的股市指标来证明熊市的迹象，结果发现63%的指标吻合，包括基金的资金外流、芝加哥期权交易所VIX指数（CBOE Volatility Index）上升以及消费者信心高涨。\n不过泡沫已经膨胀到临近破灭的边缘，并不等同于股市毁灭。尽管VIX指数创下了三个月来的新高，但仍低于2018年9月份79%的峰值水平。\nSavita Subramanian等美银策略分析师写道：\n\n “熊市信号（通常指在标普500指数达到峰值之前触发的信号）越来越明显，我们预测，2021年标普500指数的回报率将会很低。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":332858885,"gmtCreate":1610374758547,"gmtModify":1704983274222,"author":{"id":"3560598381922417","authorId":"3560598381922417","name":"Yamcake18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d7f68c89404c7c2abce9286c953c18d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560598381922417","idStr":"3560598381922417"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"？","listText":"？","text":"？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/332858885","repostId":"1120677382","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
