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ZidaneNg
2021-04-19
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ZidaneNg
2021-04-19
Gogogo!
Stocks are at all-time highs and the U.S. economy is booming. So why is everyone so nervous?
Go to Tiger App to see more news
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Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1618802400,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2128525488?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-19 11:20","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Stocks are at all-time highs and the U.S. economy is booming. So why is everyone so nervous?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2128525488","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Clients say 'markets don't feel right,' one markets research analyst notes\n\nPeter Andersen, a Boston","content":"<blockquote>\n Clients say 'markets don't feel right,' <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> markets research analyst notes\n</blockquote>\n<p>Peter Andersen, a Boston-based money manager, started 2021 feeling upbeat.</p>\n<p>\"I think this is going to be <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the historic recoveries, up there with the end of major wars,\" he told MarketWatch around the turn of the year. \"There's enormous demand from consumers. Can you imagine when we get the all-clear and start moving back toward normalcy?\"</p>\n<p>But three months into the year, Andersen is glum. In an interview last week, he talked about the way big segments of the market seem to be in favor one day, out the next. \"We toggle between value and growth, stay-at-home and re-opening, almost daily,\" he said. \"I don't know who is driving this, but it must be following some kind of algorithm.\"</p>\n<p>Andersen is trying to be patient, recognizing that the economy is at a once-in-a-generation inflection point and that everyone is operating in unprecedented conditions. Still, he said, the financial markets sometimes feel like a house of cards.</p>\n<p>\"It's confounding,\" he said. \"The market is fragile, and surprisingly so. This whole year for me has been really challenging to try to figure out is there any momentum, what direction is it going in and what's responsible for it.\"</p>\n<p>As if the horrors of the global coronavirus pandemic weren't enough of a curveball, the past 12 months have thrown up a slew of other headwinds against smooth market sailing. There's the surge of retail traders bent on using the stock market as a gambling casino , and a national politics so bitter that the presidential election turned bloody.</p>\n<p>And that's not even counting the more existential questions: what's the right level for a stock market that plunged 33% in about two weeks just a year ago? How much of that gain comes down to policy stimulus and how much is real? How much of the expected economic rebound is already priced in? What happens if the vaccine promise falls short? What if this is as good as it gets?</p>\n<p>Taken together, it leaves people who manage money, their clients, and the companies that advise them, just as befuddled as Andersen, with almost as many perceived red flags as there are theories as to what's causing it all.</p>\n<p>\"The most common observation we get from clients is that markets don't \"feel right\", and we absolutely get that,\" wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a recent note. \"For us, a big piece of this unease comes from the novelty of seeing capital markets go from distress to euphoria in such a short period of time.\"</p>\n<p>Market observers point to all manner of weird quirks that seem to confirm something is askew. Among other things, trading volumes have plunged to start 2021.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb6bad128839dbcf6e9ba87c8620e88\" tg-width=\"647\" tg-height=\"426\"></p>\n<p>To be sure, the elevated volumes in 2020 were just that -- an outlier. But by some estimates, inexperienced amateur traders now make up as much as 20% of all volume in the markets. And even if all of them aren't out gunning for short-sellers, they still have very different priorities and incentives than much of the rest of the market.</p>\n<p>Also unsettling was the spike U.S. Treasury yields in only a few weeks in the first quarter this year, spooking stock-market investors, followed by several weeks of Federal Reserve policymakers reassuring markets that any interest rate rises wouldn't start until 2023 and would be telegraphed well in advance. Strangely then, rosy economic data seemingly caused bond yields to plunge in mid-April.</p>\n<p>\"Other weird stuff is going on,\" mused Evercore ISI's Dennis DeBusschere, in a note attempting to explain the government-bond rally. \"SPAC's and Solar are getting hit hard on a relative basis, which is odd given the move lower in 10 year yields. Some are citing that the retail investor-sponsored names are getting hit in general as they move away from the market. And why are homebuilders underperforming with 10 year yields collapsing?\"</p>\n<p>Dave Nadig is a long-time student of market structure, including as one of the first developers of exchange-traded funds to help markets avoid another blow-up like 1987's Black Monday.</p>\n<p>Nadig thinks markets are healthy -- that is, working efficiently and staying resilient, even through hiccups like the meme-stock rampage in the past couple of months and the Archegos family office blow-up. What's become \"very fragile,\" in his words, is price discovery.</p>\n<p>\"There are some fundamental underpinnings of how markets work that are dissolving,\" he said in an interview. \"What we're realizing is that there's a lot more noise and randomness in the market than people are willing to admit. Mostly what's changed is information flow and data moving faster and faster. Any model you build today by definition fails to take into account an acceleration tomorrow.\"</p>\n<p>Take the Gamestop Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$(GME)$</a>frenzy that erupted in January . After a group of disgruntled traders spent several weeks targeting short sellers by driving the price of that stock higher, \"It's no longer a normal stock -- it's an externality in the market that has ripple effects some investors may not even be aware of,\" Nadig said.</p>\n<p>Older investing models -- and algorithms -- are bumping up against new ones that take into account new conditions, a process Nadig calls \"an arms race,\" and one that's accelerated because of the modern speed of information flow and reaction functions.</p>\n<p>\"We're starting to see cracks in the traditional ways we've always analyzed markets,\" he said. \"We're no longer processing reality, we're processing information, and it gets priced in instantaneously. We've given up on analyzing.\"</p>\n<p>That means that a headline, say, about a pause in the use of Johnson & Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine shares trade lower, Nadig said. It means that for that day, the entire \"re-opening\" trade -- and by extension, some cyclical trades and some value plays -- suffers.</p>\n<p>For Peter Andersen, who's managed money for nearly three decades and returned more than 40% for his clients in each of the the past two years, the market's fragility is frustrating. Andersen prides himself on \"fierce independence\" in stock selection that results in a macro-agnostic portfolio. Some of his recent investments have been in cybersecurity, data storage, and pet care.</p>\n<p>In the year to date, however, one of Andersen's top picks, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRUP\">Trupanion</a> Inc. (TRUP), is down 33%, for no logical reason, he noted. \"It's as if someone thinks everyone is going to euthanize their pets!\"</p>\n<p>Stocks looked past the Johnson & Johnson news to close higher for the week with both the Dow and S&P500 index at new records. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.2%, the S&P 500 was up 1.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.1%.</p>\n<p>The coming week will bring U.S. economic data on the housing market, including existing- and new- home sales, and a raft of corporate earnings reports.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks are at all-time highs and the U.S. economy is booming. So why is everyone so nervous?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks are at all-time highs and the U.S. economy is booming. So why is everyone so nervous?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-19 11:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n Clients say 'markets don't feel right,' <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> markets research analyst notes\n</blockquote>\n<p>Peter Andersen, a Boston-based money manager, started 2021 feeling upbeat.</p>\n<p>\"I think this is going to be <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the historic recoveries, up there with the end of major wars,\" he told MarketWatch around the turn of the year. \"There's enormous demand from consumers. Can you imagine when we get the all-clear and start moving back toward normalcy?\"</p>\n<p>But three months into the year, Andersen is glum. In an interview last week, he talked about the way big segments of the market seem to be in favor one day, out the next. \"We toggle between value and growth, stay-at-home and re-opening, almost daily,\" he said. \"I don't know who is driving this, but it must be following some kind of algorithm.\"</p>\n<p>Andersen is trying to be patient, recognizing that the economy is at a once-in-a-generation inflection point and that everyone is operating in unprecedented conditions. Still, he said, the financial markets sometimes feel like a house of cards.</p>\n<p>\"It's confounding,\" he said. \"The market is fragile, and surprisingly so. This whole year for me has been really challenging to try to figure out is there any momentum, what direction is it going in and what's responsible for it.\"</p>\n<p>As if the horrors of the global coronavirus pandemic weren't enough of a curveball, the past 12 months have thrown up a slew of other headwinds against smooth market sailing. There's the surge of retail traders bent on using the stock market as a gambling casino , and a national politics so bitter that the presidential election turned bloody.</p>\n<p>And that's not even counting the more existential questions: what's the right level for a stock market that plunged 33% in about two weeks just a year ago? How much of that gain comes down to policy stimulus and how much is real? How much of the expected economic rebound is already priced in? What happens if the vaccine promise falls short? What if this is as good as it gets?</p>\n<p>Taken together, it leaves people who manage money, their clients, and the companies that advise them, just as befuddled as Andersen, with almost as many perceived red flags as there are theories as to what's causing it all.</p>\n<p>\"The most common observation we get from clients is that markets don't \"feel right\", and we absolutely get that,\" wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a recent note. \"For us, a big piece of this unease comes from the novelty of seeing capital markets go from distress to euphoria in such a short period of time.\"</p>\n<p>Market observers point to all manner of weird quirks that seem to confirm something is askew. Among other things, trading volumes have plunged to start 2021.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb6bad128839dbcf6e9ba87c8620e88\" tg-width=\"647\" tg-height=\"426\"></p>\n<p>To be sure, the elevated volumes in 2020 were just that -- an outlier. But by some estimates, inexperienced amateur traders now make up as much as 20% of all volume in the markets. And even if all of them aren't out gunning for short-sellers, they still have very different priorities and incentives than much of the rest of the market.</p>\n<p>Also unsettling was the spike U.S. Treasury yields in only a few weeks in the first quarter this year, spooking stock-market investors, followed by several weeks of Federal Reserve policymakers reassuring markets that any interest rate rises wouldn't start until 2023 and would be telegraphed well in advance. Strangely then, rosy economic data seemingly caused bond yields to plunge in mid-April.</p>\n<p>\"Other weird stuff is going on,\" mused Evercore ISI's Dennis DeBusschere, in a note attempting to explain the government-bond rally. \"SPAC's and Solar are getting hit hard on a relative basis, which is odd given the move lower in 10 year yields. Some are citing that the retail investor-sponsored names are getting hit in general as they move away from the market. And why are homebuilders underperforming with 10 year yields collapsing?\"</p>\n<p>Dave Nadig is a long-time student of market structure, including as one of the first developers of exchange-traded funds to help markets avoid another blow-up like 1987's Black Monday.</p>\n<p>Nadig thinks markets are healthy -- that is, working efficiently and staying resilient, even through hiccups like the meme-stock rampage in the past couple of months and the Archegos family office blow-up. What's become \"very fragile,\" in his words, is price discovery.</p>\n<p>\"There are some fundamental underpinnings of how markets work that are dissolving,\" he said in an interview. \"What we're realizing is that there's a lot more noise and randomness in the market than people are willing to admit. Mostly what's changed is information flow and data moving faster and faster. Any model you build today by definition fails to take into account an acceleration tomorrow.\"</p>\n<p>Take the Gamestop Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$(GME)$</a>frenzy that erupted in January . After a group of disgruntled traders spent several weeks targeting short sellers by driving the price of that stock higher, \"It's no longer a normal stock -- it's an externality in the market that has ripple effects some investors may not even be aware of,\" Nadig said.</p>\n<p>Older investing models -- and algorithms -- are bumping up against new ones that take into account new conditions, a process Nadig calls \"an arms race,\" and one that's accelerated because of the modern speed of information flow and reaction functions.</p>\n<p>\"We're starting to see cracks in the traditional ways we've always analyzed markets,\" he said. \"We're no longer processing reality, we're processing information, and it gets priced in instantaneously. We've given up on analyzing.\"</p>\n<p>That means that a headline, say, about a pause in the use of Johnson & Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine shares trade lower, Nadig said. It means that for that day, the entire \"re-opening\" trade -- and by extension, some cyclical trades and some value plays -- suffers.</p>\n<p>For Peter Andersen, who's managed money for nearly three decades and returned more than 40% for his clients in each of the the past two years, the market's fragility is frustrating. Andersen prides himself on \"fierce independence\" in stock selection that results in a macro-agnostic portfolio. Some of his recent investments have been in cybersecurity, data storage, and pet care.</p>\n<p>In the year to date, however, one of Andersen's top picks, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRUP\">Trupanion</a> Inc. (TRUP), is down 33%, for no logical reason, he noted. \"It's as if someone thinks everyone is going to euthanize their pets!\"</p>\n<p>Stocks looked past the Johnson & Johnson news to close higher for the week with both the Dow and S&P500 index at new records. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.2%, the S&P 500 was up 1.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.1%.</p>\n<p>The coming week will bring U.S. economic data on the housing market, including existing- and new- home sales, and a raft of corporate earnings reports.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2128525488","content_text":"Clients say 'markets don't feel right,' one markets research analyst notes\n\nPeter Andersen, a Boston-based money manager, started 2021 feeling upbeat.\n\"I think this is going to be one of the historic recoveries, up there with the end of major wars,\" he told MarketWatch around the turn of the year. \"There's enormous demand from consumers. Can you imagine when we get the all-clear and start moving back toward normalcy?\"\nBut three months into the year, Andersen is glum. In an interview last week, he talked about the way big segments of the market seem to be in favor one day, out the next. \"We toggle between value and growth, stay-at-home and re-opening, almost daily,\" he said. \"I don't know who is driving this, but it must be following some kind of algorithm.\"\nAndersen is trying to be patient, recognizing that the economy is at a once-in-a-generation inflection point and that everyone is operating in unprecedented conditions. Still, he said, the financial markets sometimes feel like a house of cards.\n\"It's confounding,\" he said. \"The market is fragile, and surprisingly so. This whole year for me has been really challenging to try to figure out is there any momentum, what direction is it going in and what's responsible for it.\"\nAs if the horrors of the global coronavirus pandemic weren't enough of a curveball, the past 12 months have thrown up a slew of other headwinds against smooth market sailing. There's the surge of retail traders bent on using the stock market as a gambling casino , and a national politics so bitter that the presidential election turned bloody.\nAnd that's not even counting the more existential questions: what's the right level for a stock market that plunged 33% in about two weeks just a year ago? How much of that gain comes down to policy stimulus and how much is real? How much of the expected economic rebound is already priced in? What happens if the vaccine promise falls short? What if this is as good as it gets?\nTaken together, it leaves people who manage money, their clients, and the companies that advise them, just as befuddled as Andersen, with almost as many perceived red flags as there are theories as to what's causing it all.\n\"The most common observation we get from clients is that markets don't \"feel right\", and we absolutely get that,\" wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a recent note. \"For us, a big piece of this unease comes from the novelty of seeing capital markets go from distress to euphoria in such a short period of time.\"\nMarket observers point to all manner of weird quirks that seem to confirm something is askew. Among other things, trading volumes have plunged to start 2021.\n\nTo be sure, the elevated volumes in 2020 were just that -- an outlier. But by some estimates, inexperienced amateur traders now make up as much as 20% of all volume in the markets. And even if all of them aren't out gunning for short-sellers, they still have very different priorities and incentives than much of the rest of the market.\nAlso unsettling was the spike U.S. Treasury yields in only a few weeks in the first quarter this year, spooking stock-market investors, followed by several weeks of Federal Reserve policymakers reassuring markets that any interest rate rises wouldn't start until 2023 and would be telegraphed well in advance. Strangely then, rosy economic data seemingly caused bond yields to plunge in mid-April.\n\"Other weird stuff is going on,\" mused Evercore ISI's Dennis DeBusschere, in a note attempting to explain the government-bond rally. \"SPAC's and Solar are getting hit hard on a relative basis, which is odd given the move lower in 10 year yields. Some are citing that the retail investor-sponsored names are getting hit in general as they move away from the market. And why are homebuilders underperforming with 10 year yields collapsing?\"\nDave Nadig is a long-time student of market structure, including as one of the first developers of exchange-traded funds to help markets avoid another blow-up like 1987's Black Monday.\nNadig thinks markets are healthy -- that is, working efficiently and staying resilient, even through hiccups like the meme-stock rampage in the past couple of months and the Archegos family office blow-up. What's become \"very fragile,\" in his words, is price discovery.\n\"There are some fundamental underpinnings of how markets work that are dissolving,\" he said in an interview. \"What we're realizing is that there's a lot more noise and randomness in the market than people are willing to admit. Mostly what's changed is information flow and data moving faster and faster. Any model you build today by definition fails to take into account an acceleration tomorrow.\"\nTake the Gamestop Corp. $(GME)$frenzy that erupted in January . After a group of disgruntled traders spent several weeks targeting short sellers by driving the price of that stock higher, \"It's no longer a normal stock -- it's an externality in the market that has ripple effects some investors may not even be aware of,\" Nadig said.\nOlder investing models -- and algorithms -- are bumping up against new ones that take into account new conditions, a process Nadig calls \"an arms race,\" and one that's accelerated because of the modern speed of information flow and reaction functions.\n\"We're starting to see cracks in the traditional ways we've always analyzed markets,\" he said. \"We're no longer processing reality, we're processing information, and it gets priced in instantaneously. We've given up on analyzing.\"\nThat means that a headline, say, about a pause in the use of Johnson & Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine shares trade lower, Nadig said. It means that for that day, the entire \"re-opening\" trade -- and by extension, some cyclical trades and some value plays -- suffers.\nFor Peter Andersen, who's managed money for nearly three decades and returned more than 40% for his clients in each of the the past two years, the market's fragility is frustrating. Andersen prides himself on \"fierce independence\" in stock selection that results in a macro-agnostic portfolio. Some of his recent investments have been in cybersecurity, data storage, and pet care.\nIn the year to date, however, one of Andersen's top picks, Trupanion Inc. (TRUP), is down 33%, for no logical reason, he noted. \"It's as if someone thinks everyone is going to euthanize their pets!\"\nStocks looked past the Johnson & Johnson news to close higher for the week with both the Dow and S&P500 index at new records. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.2%, the S&P 500 was up 1.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.1%.\nThe coming week will bring U.S. economic data on the housing market, including existing- and new- home sales, and a raft of corporate earnings reports.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":373899486,"gmtCreate":1618836903645,"gmtModify":1704715589072,"author":{"id":"3561329332122418","authorId":"3561329332122418","authorIdStr":"3561329332122418","name":"ZidaneNg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2fe250f611aa2d6b6b10656620e1c73","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561329332122418"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373899486","repostId":"2128989668","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2128989668","pubTimestamp":1618836620,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2128989668?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-19 20:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Better Buy: Costco vs. Starbucks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2128989668","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"As things return to normal, which of these consumer favorites deserves an investment?","content":"<p><b>Costco Wholesale </b>(NASDAQ:COST) and <b>Starbucks</b> (NASDAQ:SBUX) have both been great stocks to own over the past few years. The ubiquitous coffeehouse chain is up 105% since April 2016, while the warehouse club operator has soared 147% during the same time. </p>\n<p>That said, the historical success of these large-cap stocks does not necessarily guarantee satisfactory returns going forward. Investors need to weigh the merits of each today to come up with their own conclusions. </p>\n<p>Let's find out which stock is the better buy. </p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d809e54e32a6274b36ebe37521180fea\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"554\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>The case for Costco </h2>\n<p>Investor worries about a slowdown for the giant warehouse retailer following a reopening of economies have been overblown. For the month of March, adjusted comparable sales (excluding the impacts from changes in gasoline prices and foreign exchange) rose 11.1%, with e-commerce revenue increasing at an impressive 54.5%. </p>\n<p>Although these March figures showed a slight deceleration from January and February, they clearly demonstrate the strength of Costco's business. For example, in the most recent quarter, the home furnishings, toys, and consumer electronics categories were some of the better performers. </p>\n<p>Compare this to the spring of last year when people stocked up on toilet paper, paper towels, and cleaning supplies. It's obvious that Costco's massive selection of goods can satisfy customer demands at any particular time. </p>\n<p>Costco still sports a very healthy membership renewal rate (91% in the U.S. and Canada in the second quarter of 2021), a positive sign given that essentially all of the company's profits come from membership fees. Furthermore, enticing investors is a dividend that has grown at a compound annual growth rate of 13% per year since 2004. </p>\n<p>While Costco did not open any new locations in the most recent quarter, it did open eight net new stores in the previous quarter. And management has stated that it plans to open 13 stores during the rest of the year. For a company this size (808 stores and $163.2 billion in sales in the last fiscal year), this kind of growth is very encouraging. </p>\n<p>Investors can still ride a solid wave of growth if they purchase shares of Costco today. </p>\n<h2>The case for Starbucks </h2>\n<p>Starbucks has come roaring back since the depths of the pandemic (in the third quarter of 2020) when global comparable sales dipped 40%. In the most recent quarter (ended Dec. 27, 2020), global comparable sales were down only 5%. What's more, management thinks this figure will expand an impressive 18% to 23% for the full fiscal 2021. </p>\n<p>The coffee retailing behemoth was definitely affected by the pandemic as its customers spent most of 2020 working from home, which resulted in less time commuting to the office and stopping to pick up caffeinated beverages. But by leaning heavily on its digital prowess (and 21.8 million rewards members in the U.S.), the business was still able to serve its customers. Whether it was delivery, curbside pick-up, or the extremely popular drive-thru option, Starbucks found a way to grow the average ticket size as larger group orders became the norm. </p>\n<p>Starbucks' brand is second to none. There are currently nearly 33,000 locations worldwide, but management thinks that in the next decade, this number will hit 55,000. For investors thinking there's no way the business can keep opening new stores, this is some delightful news. </p>\n<p>Most of the growth will come from China, where Starbucks plans to open 600 net new locations this year. Having exposure to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the largest and fastest-growing economies is a good place for the company to be as the world starts to open back up. </p>\n<p>As far as new locations are concerned, it seems that Starbucks has a much longer runway for growth than Costco does. </p>\n<h2>The valuations </h2>\n<p>I just spelled out merits for owning both Costco and Starbucks. While Costco received a boost from the pandemic that still has not let up, Starbucks has since showed resiliency and bounced back after being severely impacted at first. So, which <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> is the better buy? </p>\n<p>Based on one year forward P/E ratios, Costco (33.8) looks just about slightly cheaper than Starbucks (34.1). But quite honestly, I think investors can't go wrong owning either of these fantastic businesses. They both are adored by consumers, have strong competitive advantages, and still have plenty of growth left. </p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Better Buy: Costco vs. Starbucks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBetter Buy: Costco vs. Starbucks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-19 20:50 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/19/better-buy-costco-vs-starbucks/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST) and Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) have both been great stocks to own over the past few years. The ubiquitous coffeehouse chain is up 105% since April 2016, while the warehouse...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/19/better-buy-costco-vs-starbucks/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COST":"好市多","SBUX":"星巴克"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/19/better-buy-costco-vs-starbucks/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2128989668","content_text":"Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST) and Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) have both been great stocks to own over the past few years. The ubiquitous coffeehouse chain is up 105% since April 2016, while the warehouse club operator has soared 147% during the same time. \nThat said, the historical success of these large-cap stocks does not necessarily guarantee satisfactory returns going forward. Investors need to weigh the merits of each today to come up with their own conclusions. \nLet's find out which stock is the better buy. \nImage source: Getty Images.\nThe case for Costco \nInvestor worries about a slowdown for the giant warehouse retailer following a reopening of economies have been overblown. For the month of March, adjusted comparable sales (excluding the impacts from changes in gasoline prices and foreign exchange) rose 11.1%, with e-commerce revenue increasing at an impressive 54.5%. \nAlthough these March figures showed a slight deceleration from January and February, they clearly demonstrate the strength of Costco's business. For example, in the most recent quarter, the home furnishings, toys, and consumer electronics categories were some of the better performers. \nCompare this to the spring of last year when people stocked up on toilet paper, paper towels, and cleaning supplies. It's obvious that Costco's massive selection of goods can satisfy customer demands at any particular time. \nCostco still sports a very healthy membership renewal rate (91% in the U.S. and Canada in the second quarter of 2021), a positive sign given that essentially all of the company's profits come from membership fees. Furthermore, enticing investors is a dividend that has grown at a compound annual growth rate of 13% per year since 2004. \nWhile Costco did not open any new locations in the most recent quarter, it did open eight net new stores in the previous quarter. And management has stated that it plans to open 13 stores during the rest of the year. For a company this size (808 stores and $163.2 billion in sales in the last fiscal year), this kind of growth is very encouraging. \nInvestors can still ride a solid wave of growth if they purchase shares of Costco today. \nThe case for Starbucks \nStarbucks has come roaring back since the depths of the pandemic (in the third quarter of 2020) when global comparable sales dipped 40%. In the most recent quarter (ended Dec. 27, 2020), global comparable sales were down only 5%. What's more, management thinks this figure will expand an impressive 18% to 23% for the full fiscal 2021. \nThe coffee retailing behemoth was definitely affected by the pandemic as its customers spent most of 2020 working from home, which resulted in less time commuting to the office and stopping to pick up caffeinated beverages. But by leaning heavily on its digital prowess (and 21.8 million rewards members in the U.S.), the business was still able to serve its customers. Whether it was delivery, curbside pick-up, or the extremely popular drive-thru option, Starbucks found a way to grow the average ticket size as larger group orders became the norm. \nStarbucks' brand is second to none. There are currently nearly 33,000 locations worldwide, but management thinks that in the next decade, this number will hit 55,000. For investors thinking there's no way the business can keep opening new stores, this is some delightful news. \nMost of the growth will come from China, where Starbucks plans to open 600 net new locations this year. Having exposure to one of the largest and fastest-growing economies is a good place for the company to be as the world starts to open back up. \nAs far as new locations are concerned, it seems that Starbucks has a much longer runway for growth than Costco does. \nThe valuations \nI just spelled out merits for owning both Costco and Starbucks. While Costco received a boost from the pandemic that still has not let up, Starbucks has since showed resiliency and bounced back after being severely impacted at first. So, which one is the better buy? \nBased on one year forward P/E ratios, Costco (33.8) looks just about slightly cheaper than Starbucks (34.1). But quite honestly, I think investors can't go wrong owning either of these fantastic businesses. They both are adored by consumers, have strong competitive advantages, and still have plenty of growth left.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373890954,"gmtCreate":1618836810278,"gmtModify":1704715587132,"author":{"id":"3561329332122418","authorId":"3561329332122418","authorIdStr":"3561329332122418","name":"ZidaneNg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2fe250f611aa2d6b6b10656620e1c73","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561329332122418"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gogogo!","listText":"Gogogo!","text":"Gogogo!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373890954","repostId":"2128525488","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2128525488","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1618802400,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2128525488?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-19 11:20","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Stocks are at all-time highs and the U.S. economy is booming. So why is everyone so nervous?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2128525488","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Clients say 'markets don't feel right,' one markets research analyst notes\n\nPeter Andersen, a Boston","content":"<blockquote>\n Clients say 'markets don't feel right,' <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> markets research analyst notes\n</blockquote>\n<p>Peter Andersen, a Boston-based money manager, started 2021 feeling upbeat.</p>\n<p>\"I think this is going to be <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the historic recoveries, up there with the end of major wars,\" he told MarketWatch around the turn of the year. \"There's enormous demand from consumers. Can you imagine when we get the all-clear and start moving back toward normalcy?\"</p>\n<p>But three months into the year, Andersen is glum. In an interview last week, he talked about the way big segments of the market seem to be in favor one day, out the next. \"We toggle between value and growth, stay-at-home and re-opening, almost daily,\" he said. \"I don't know who is driving this, but it must be following some kind of algorithm.\"</p>\n<p>Andersen is trying to be patient, recognizing that the economy is at a once-in-a-generation inflection point and that everyone is operating in unprecedented conditions. Still, he said, the financial markets sometimes feel like a house of cards.</p>\n<p>\"It's confounding,\" he said. \"The market is fragile, and surprisingly so. This whole year for me has been really challenging to try to figure out is there any momentum, what direction is it going in and what's responsible for it.\"</p>\n<p>As if the horrors of the global coronavirus pandemic weren't enough of a curveball, the past 12 months have thrown up a slew of other headwinds against smooth market sailing. There's the surge of retail traders bent on using the stock market as a gambling casino , and a national politics so bitter that the presidential election turned bloody.</p>\n<p>And that's not even counting the more existential questions: what's the right level for a stock market that plunged 33% in about two weeks just a year ago? How much of that gain comes down to policy stimulus and how much is real? How much of the expected economic rebound is already priced in? What happens if the vaccine promise falls short? What if this is as good as it gets?</p>\n<p>Taken together, it leaves people who manage money, their clients, and the companies that advise them, just as befuddled as Andersen, with almost as many perceived red flags as there are theories as to what's causing it all.</p>\n<p>\"The most common observation we get from clients is that markets don't \"feel right\", and we absolutely get that,\" wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a recent note. \"For us, a big piece of this unease comes from the novelty of seeing capital markets go from distress to euphoria in such a short period of time.\"</p>\n<p>Market observers point to all manner of weird quirks that seem to confirm something is askew. Among other things, trading volumes have plunged to start 2021.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb6bad128839dbcf6e9ba87c8620e88\" tg-width=\"647\" tg-height=\"426\"></p>\n<p>To be sure, the elevated volumes in 2020 were just that -- an outlier. But by some estimates, inexperienced amateur traders now make up as much as 20% of all volume in the markets. And even if all of them aren't out gunning for short-sellers, they still have very different priorities and incentives than much of the rest of the market.</p>\n<p>Also unsettling was the spike U.S. Treasury yields in only a few weeks in the first quarter this year, spooking stock-market investors, followed by several weeks of Federal Reserve policymakers reassuring markets that any interest rate rises wouldn't start until 2023 and would be telegraphed well in advance. Strangely then, rosy economic data seemingly caused bond yields to plunge in mid-April.</p>\n<p>\"Other weird stuff is going on,\" mused Evercore ISI's Dennis DeBusschere, in a note attempting to explain the government-bond rally. \"SPAC's and Solar are getting hit hard on a relative basis, which is odd given the move lower in 10 year yields. Some are citing that the retail investor-sponsored names are getting hit in general as they move away from the market. And why are homebuilders underperforming with 10 year yields collapsing?\"</p>\n<p>Dave Nadig is a long-time student of market structure, including as one of the first developers of exchange-traded funds to help markets avoid another blow-up like 1987's Black Monday.</p>\n<p>Nadig thinks markets are healthy -- that is, working efficiently and staying resilient, even through hiccups like the meme-stock rampage in the past couple of months and the Archegos family office blow-up. What's become \"very fragile,\" in his words, is price discovery.</p>\n<p>\"There are some fundamental underpinnings of how markets work that are dissolving,\" he said in an interview. \"What we're realizing is that there's a lot more noise and randomness in the market than people are willing to admit. Mostly what's changed is information flow and data moving faster and faster. Any model you build today by definition fails to take into account an acceleration tomorrow.\"</p>\n<p>Take the Gamestop Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$(GME)$</a>frenzy that erupted in January . After a group of disgruntled traders spent several weeks targeting short sellers by driving the price of that stock higher, \"It's no longer a normal stock -- it's an externality in the market that has ripple effects some investors may not even be aware of,\" Nadig said.</p>\n<p>Older investing models -- and algorithms -- are bumping up against new ones that take into account new conditions, a process Nadig calls \"an arms race,\" and one that's accelerated because of the modern speed of information flow and reaction functions.</p>\n<p>\"We're starting to see cracks in the traditional ways we've always analyzed markets,\" he said. \"We're no longer processing reality, we're processing information, and it gets priced in instantaneously. We've given up on analyzing.\"</p>\n<p>That means that a headline, say, about a pause in the use of Johnson & Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine shares trade lower, Nadig said. It means that for that day, the entire \"re-opening\" trade -- and by extension, some cyclical trades and some value plays -- suffers.</p>\n<p>For Peter Andersen, who's managed money for nearly three decades and returned more than 40% for his clients in each of the the past two years, the market's fragility is frustrating. Andersen prides himself on \"fierce independence\" in stock selection that results in a macro-agnostic portfolio. Some of his recent investments have been in cybersecurity, data storage, and pet care.</p>\n<p>In the year to date, however, one of Andersen's top picks, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRUP\">Trupanion</a> Inc. (TRUP), is down 33%, for no logical reason, he noted. \"It's as if someone thinks everyone is going to euthanize their pets!\"</p>\n<p>Stocks looked past the Johnson & Johnson news to close higher for the week with both the Dow and S&P500 index at new records. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.2%, the S&P 500 was up 1.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.1%.</p>\n<p>The coming week will bring U.S. economic data on the housing market, including existing- and new- home sales, and a raft of corporate earnings reports.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks are at all-time highs and the U.S. economy is booming. So why is everyone so nervous?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks are at all-time highs and the U.S. economy is booming. So why is everyone so nervous?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-19 11:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n Clients say 'markets don't feel right,' <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> markets research analyst notes\n</blockquote>\n<p>Peter Andersen, a Boston-based money manager, started 2021 feeling upbeat.</p>\n<p>\"I think this is going to be <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the historic recoveries, up there with the end of major wars,\" he told MarketWatch around the turn of the year. \"There's enormous demand from consumers. Can you imagine when we get the all-clear and start moving back toward normalcy?\"</p>\n<p>But three months into the year, Andersen is glum. In an interview last week, he talked about the way big segments of the market seem to be in favor one day, out the next. \"We toggle between value and growth, stay-at-home and re-opening, almost daily,\" he said. \"I don't know who is driving this, but it must be following some kind of algorithm.\"</p>\n<p>Andersen is trying to be patient, recognizing that the economy is at a once-in-a-generation inflection point and that everyone is operating in unprecedented conditions. Still, he said, the financial markets sometimes feel like a house of cards.</p>\n<p>\"It's confounding,\" he said. \"The market is fragile, and surprisingly so. This whole year for me has been really challenging to try to figure out is there any momentum, what direction is it going in and what's responsible for it.\"</p>\n<p>As if the horrors of the global coronavirus pandemic weren't enough of a curveball, the past 12 months have thrown up a slew of other headwinds against smooth market sailing. There's the surge of retail traders bent on using the stock market as a gambling casino , and a national politics so bitter that the presidential election turned bloody.</p>\n<p>And that's not even counting the more existential questions: what's the right level for a stock market that plunged 33% in about two weeks just a year ago? How much of that gain comes down to policy stimulus and how much is real? How much of the expected economic rebound is already priced in? What happens if the vaccine promise falls short? What if this is as good as it gets?</p>\n<p>Taken together, it leaves people who manage money, their clients, and the companies that advise them, just as befuddled as Andersen, with almost as many perceived red flags as there are theories as to what's causing it all.</p>\n<p>\"The most common observation we get from clients is that markets don't \"feel right\", and we absolutely get that,\" wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a recent note. \"For us, a big piece of this unease comes from the novelty of seeing capital markets go from distress to euphoria in such a short period of time.\"</p>\n<p>Market observers point to all manner of weird quirks that seem to confirm something is askew. Among other things, trading volumes have plunged to start 2021.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb6bad128839dbcf6e9ba87c8620e88\" tg-width=\"647\" tg-height=\"426\"></p>\n<p>To be sure, the elevated volumes in 2020 were just that -- an outlier. But by some estimates, inexperienced amateur traders now make up as much as 20% of all volume in the markets. And even if all of them aren't out gunning for short-sellers, they still have very different priorities and incentives than much of the rest of the market.</p>\n<p>Also unsettling was the spike U.S. Treasury yields in only a few weeks in the first quarter this year, spooking stock-market investors, followed by several weeks of Federal Reserve policymakers reassuring markets that any interest rate rises wouldn't start until 2023 and would be telegraphed well in advance. Strangely then, rosy economic data seemingly caused bond yields to plunge in mid-April.</p>\n<p>\"Other weird stuff is going on,\" mused Evercore ISI's Dennis DeBusschere, in a note attempting to explain the government-bond rally. \"SPAC's and Solar are getting hit hard on a relative basis, which is odd given the move lower in 10 year yields. Some are citing that the retail investor-sponsored names are getting hit in general as they move away from the market. And why are homebuilders underperforming with 10 year yields collapsing?\"</p>\n<p>Dave Nadig is a long-time student of market structure, including as one of the first developers of exchange-traded funds to help markets avoid another blow-up like 1987's Black Monday.</p>\n<p>Nadig thinks markets are healthy -- that is, working efficiently and staying resilient, even through hiccups like the meme-stock rampage in the past couple of months and the Archegos family office blow-up. What's become \"very fragile,\" in his words, is price discovery.</p>\n<p>\"There are some fundamental underpinnings of how markets work that are dissolving,\" he said in an interview. \"What we're realizing is that there's a lot more noise and randomness in the market than people are willing to admit. Mostly what's changed is information flow and data moving faster and faster. Any model you build today by definition fails to take into account an acceleration tomorrow.\"</p>\n<p>Take the Gamestop Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$(GME)$</a>frenzy that erupted in January . After a group of disgruntled traders spent several weeks targeting short sellers by driving the price of that stock higher, \"It's no longer a normal stock -- it's an externality in the market that has ripple effects some investors may not even be aware of,\" Nadig said.</p>\n<p>Older investing models -- and algorithms -- are bumping up against new ones that take into account new conditions, a process Nadig calls \"an arms race,\" and one that's accelerated because of the modern speed of information flow and reaction functions.</p>\n<p>\"We're starting to see cracks in the traditional ways we've always analyzed markets,\" he said. \"We're no longer processing reality, we're processing information, and it gets priced in instantaneously. We've given up on analyzing.\"</p>\n<p>That means that a headline, say, about a pause in the use of Johnson & Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine shares trade lower, Nadig said. It means that for that day, the entire \"re-opening\" trade -- and by extension, some cyclical trades and some value plays -- suffers.</p>\n<p>For Peter Andersen, who's managed money for nearly three decades and returned more than 40% for his clients in each of the the past two years, the market's fragility is frustrating. Andersen prides himself on \"fierce independence\" in stock selection that results in a macro-agnostic portfolio. Some of his recent investments have been in cybersecurity, data storage, and pet care.</p>\n<p>In the year to date, however, one of Andersen's top picks, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRUP\">Trupanion</a> Inc. (TRUP), is down 33%, for no logical reason, he noted. \"It's as if someone thinks everyone is going to euthanize their pets!\"</p>\n<p>Stocks looked past the Johnson & Johnson news to close higher for the week with both the Dow and S&P500 index at new records. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.2%, the S&P 500 was up 1.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.1%.</p>\n<p>The coming week will bring U.S. economic data on the housing market, including existing- and new- home sales, and a raft of corporate earnings reports.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2128525488","content_text":"Clients say 'markets don't feel right,' one markets research analyst notes\n\nPeter Andersen, a Boston-based money manager, started 2021 feeling upbeat.\n\"I think this is going to be one of the historic recoveries, up there with the end of major wars,\" he told MarketWatch around the turn of the year. \"There's enormous demand from consumers. Can you imagine when we get the all-clear and start moving back toward normalcy?\"\nBut three months into the year, Andersen is glum. In an interview last week, he talked about the way big segments of the market seem to be in favor one day, out the next. \"We toggle between value and growth, stay-at-home and re-opening, almost daily,\" he said. \"I don't know who is driving this, but it must be following some kind of algorithm.\"\nAndersen is trying to be patient, recognizing that the economy is at a once-in-a-generation inflection point and that everyone is operating in unprecedented conditions. Still, he said, the financial markets sometimes feel like a house of cards.\n\"It's confounding,\" he said. \"The market is fragile, and surprisingly so. This whole year for me has been really challenging to try to figure out is there any momentum, what direction is it going in and what's responsible for it.\"\nAs if the horrors of the global coronavirus pandemic weren't enough of a curveball, the past 12 months have thrown up a slew of other headwinds against smooth market sailing. There's the surge of retail traders bent on using the stock market as a gambling casino , and a national politics so bitter that the presidential election turned bloody.\nAnd that's not even counting the more existential questions: what's the right level for a stock market that plunged 33% in about two weeks just a year ago? How much of that gain comes down to policy stimulus and how much is real? How much of the expected economic rebound is already priced in? What happens if the vaccine promise falls short? What if this is as good as it gets?\nTaken together, it leaves people who manage money, their clients, and the companies that advise them, just as befuddled as Andersen, with almost as many perceived red flags as there are theories as to what's causing it all.\n\"The most common observation we get from clients is that markets don't \"feel right\", and we absolutely get that,\" wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a recent note. \"For us, a big piece of this unease comes from the novelty of seeing capital markets go from distress to euphoria in such a short period of time.\"\nMarket observers point to all manner of weird quirks that seem to confirm something is askew. Among other things, trading volumes have plunged to start 2021.\n\nTo be sure, the elevated volumes in 2020 were just that -- an outlier. But by some estimates, inexperienced amateur traders now make up as much as 20% of all volume in the markets. And even if all of them aren't out gunning for short-sellers, they still have very different priorities and incentives than much of the rest of the market.\nAlso unsettling was the spike U.S. Treasury yields in only a few weeks in the first quarter this year, spooking stock-market investors, followed by several weeks of Federal Reserve policymakers reassuring markets that any interest rate rises wouldn't start until 2023 and would be telegraphed well in advance. Strangely then, rosy economic data seemingly caused bond yields to plunge in mid-April.\n\"Other weird stuff is going on,\" mused Evercore ISI's Dennis DeBusschere, in a note attempting to explain the government-bond rally. \"SPAC's and Solar are getting hit hard on a relative basis, which is odd given the move lower in 10 year yields. Some are citing that the retail investor-sponsored names are getting hit in general as they move away from the market. And why are homebuilders underperforming with 10 year yields collapsing?\"\nDave Nadig is a long-time student of market structure, including as one of the first developers of exchange-traded funds to help markets avoid another blow-up like 1987's Black Monday.\nNadig thinks markets are healthy -- that is, working efficiently and staying resilient, even through hiccups like the meme-stock rampage in the past couple of months and the Archegos family office blow-up. What's become \"very fragile,\" in his words, is price discovery.\n\"There are some fundamental underpinnings of how markets work that are dissolving,\" he said in an interview. \"What we're realizing is that there's a lot more noise and randomness in the market than people are willing to admit. Mostly what's changed is information flow and data moving faster and faster. Any model you build today by definition fails to take into account an acceleration tomorrow.\"\nTake the Gamestop Corp. $(GME)$frenzy that erupted in January . After a group of disgruntled traders spent several weeks targeting short sellers by driving the price of that stock higher, \"It's no longer a normal stock -- it's an externality in the market that has ripple effects some investors may not even be aware of,\" Nadig said.\nOlder investing models -- and algorithms -- are bumping up against new ones that take into account new conditions, a process Nadig calls \"an arms race,\" and one that's accelerated because of the modern speed of information flow and reaction functions.\n\"We're starting to see cracks in the traditional ways we've always analyzed markets,\" he said. \"We're no longer processing reality, we're processing information, and it gets priced in instantaneously. We've given up on analyzing.\"\nThat means that a headline, say, about a pause in the use of Johnson & Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine shares trade lower, Nadig said. It means that for that day, the entire \"re-opening\" trade -- and by extension, some cyclical trades and some value plays -- suffers.\nFor Peter Andersen, who's managed money for nearly three decades and returned more than 40% for his clients in each of the the past two years, the market's fragility is frustrating. Andersen prides himself on \"fierce independence\" in stock selection that results in a macro-agnostic portfolio. Some of his recent investments have been in cybersecurity, data storage, and pet care.\nIn the year to date, however, one of Andersen's top picks, Trupanion Inc. (TRUP), is down 33%, for no logical reason, he noted. \"It's as if someone thinks everyone is going to euthanize their pets!\"\nStocks looked past the Johnson & Johnson news to close higher for the week with both the Dow and S&P500 index at new records. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.2%, the S&P 500 was up 1.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.1%.\nThe coming week will bring U.S. economic data on the housing market, including existing- and new- home sales, and a raft of corporate earnings reports.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
