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2022-12-06
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that","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/629366163","repostId":"1116146222","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116146222","pubTimestamp":1670286926,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116146222?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-06 08:35","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"两个月前精准预测美股本轮反弹后，华尔街“大空头”开始看跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116146222","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摩根士丹利首席美股策略分析师Mike Wilson认为，当前这场“熊市反弹”结束在即，美股明年将创新低，他建议投资者“在熊市回归之前，获利了结”。两个月前，华尔街大空头之一的摩根士丹利首席美股策略分析","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>摩根士丹利首席美股策略分析师Mike Wilson认为，当前这场“熊市反弹”结束在即，美股明年将创新低，他建议投资者“在熊市回归之前，获利了结”。</blockquote><p>两个月前，华尔街大空头之一的摩根士丹利首席美股策略分析师Mike Wilson精准预测了美股的这一波反弹，但如今，他的观点却出现了转变。</p><p>在过去两个月的时间里，标普500指数累计上涨了近20%，这和Wilson的预测基本一致。</p><p>不过，Wilson在最新的研究报告中称，在上周美联储主席鲍威尔讲话结束后，“现在的这场派对结束了”，并建议投资者“在熊市回归之前，获利了结”。</p><p>Wilson说：</p><blockquote>如果这次反弹，标普500指数要进一步上涨至4150点甚至更高，我们认为美股必须由纳斯达克指数领涨，与道指不同，纳斯达克指数仍远低于其200天移动平均线。这也意味着基本面正在进一步恶化，后端利率将不得不进一步下降，以通过空头回补来支撑估值。</blockquote><p>美联储若转向，将利好美股</p><p>Wilson认为，美联储在为时已晚之前转向的希望越来越大，即，美联储的转向有可能避免衰退并扩大企业盈利。他从如下几个角度来分析这一问题：</p><p>首先，为什么美国国债涨幅如此之大？Wilson认为，这主要与鲍威尔没有阻止放松金融状况有关。威尔逊认为，鲍威尔尤其在这个因素方面听起来更加强硬，但实际上可能是更为鸽派。 如果看一看金融环境在过去一年里收紧了多少，就很难说它们放松了那么多。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23f25240cfb276bb43edc9574d0a7609\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>其次，上周五的非农就业数据强于预期，这引发了周五美股和美债的快速抛售，但从技术角度看，两者都没有完全转头向下。相反，美债依然维持在反弹的趋势上，长期债券甚至维持涨势，标普500指数也险守200日移动均线。 简而言之，正如Wilson指出的那样，劳动力市场的表现并没有吓跑美债多头，随着经济增长放缓和美联储暂停加息活动，实际利率可能会在明年进一步下行。</p><p>第三，几周前，Wilson强调了自10月开始反弹以来，美股出现了广泛的改善，而非集中在几只股票上。事实上，所有主要股指的幅度现在都远高于夏季反弹期间达到的水平，这是一个不容忽视的积极因素。Wilson依然强调，明年美股将创下新低。</p><p>“熊市反弹”结束在即</p><p>不过Wilson也警告称：</p><blockquote>对明年的收益前景持严重负面看法，即使我们避开了经济衰退/劳动力周期，争取这种潜在上行的风险回报也很低。</blockquote><p>此外，虽然标准普尔500指数上周确实突破了200日移动均线，但Wilson认为这是“完美的多头陷阱”，特别是考虑到自高峰以来形成的下行趋势的上方阻力。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d81ceb36f2346f14dcbbda5247099cfd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>最后，在2019年和2021年牛市即将结束时，标普500指数从未达到基于广度的潜力，今天的情况与这两次类似。</p><p>Wilson称：</p><blockquote>我们6周前所称的熊市反弹正在失去动力。虽然到年底可能会有一些最后的余力，但鉴于我们对明年远低于市场普遍预期的EPS的预测，情况已经实质性恶化。</blockquote><p>他认为目前“与一年前和8月份熊市反弹后的情况一样没有吸引力”。 从短期的角度来看，他表示，“4150点是这次反弹可以实现的上限”，如今，标普500指数“跌破上周低点3938点，与150天移动平均线重合，将提供一些确认熊市即将回归的趋势。”</p><p>最后，Wilson预计通胀将在2023年快速下降。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n两个月前精准预测美股本轮反弹后，华尔街“大空头”开始看跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-06 08:35 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676715><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摩根士丹利首席美股策略分析师Mike Wilson认为，当前这场“熊市反弹”结束在即，美股明年将创新低，他建议投资者“在熊市回归之前，获利了结”。两个月前，华尔街大空头之一的摩根士丹利首席美股策略分析师Mike Wilson精准预测了美股的这一波反弹，但如今，他的观点却出现了转变。在过去两个月的时间里，标普500指数累计上涨了近20%，这和Wilson的预测基本一致。不过，Wilson在最新的研究...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676715\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50f0a252f951b7accc03d40bda92a3b2","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676715","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116146222","content_text":"摩根士丹利首席美股策略分析师Mike Wilson认为，当前这场“熊市反弹”结束在即，美股明年将创新低，他建议投资者“在熊市回归之前，获利了结”。两个月前，华尔街大空头之一的摩根士丹利首席美股策略分析师Mike Wilson精准预测了美股的这一波反弹，但如今，他的观点却出现了转变。在过去两个月的时间里，标普500指数累计上涨了近20%，这和Wilson的预测基本一致。不过，Wilson在最新的研究报告中称，在上周美联储主席鲍威尔讲话结束后，“现在的这场派对结束了”，并建议投资者“在熊市回归之前，获利了结”。Wilson说：如果这次反弹，标普500指数要进一步上涨至4150点甚至更高，我们认为美股必须由纳斯达克指数领涨，与道指不同，纳斯达克指数仍远低于其200天移动平均线。这也意味着基本面正在进一步恶化，后端利率将不得不进一步下降，以通过空头回补来支撑估值。美联储若转向，将利好美股Wilson认为，美联储在为时已晚之前转向的希望越来越大，即，美联储的转向有可能避免衰退并扩大企业盈利。他从如下几个角度来分析这一问题：首先，为什么美国国债涨幅如此之大？Wilson认为，这主要与鲍威尔没有阻止放松金融状况有关。威尔逊认为，鲍威尔尤其在这个因素方面听起来更加强硬，但实际上可能是更为鸽派。 如果看一看金融环境在过去一年里收紧了多少，就很难说它们放松了那么多。其次，上周五的非农就业数据强于预期，这引发了周五美股和美债的快速抛售，但从技术角度看，两者都没有完全转头向下。相反，美债依然维持在反弹的趋势上，长期债券甚至维持涨势，标普500指数也险守200日移动均线。 简而言之，正如Wilson指出的那样，劳动力市场的表现并没有吓跑美债多头，随着经济增长放缓和美联储暂停加息活动，实际利率可能会在明年进一步下行。第三，几周前，Wilson强调了自10月开始反弹以来，美股出现了广泛的改善，而非集中在几只股票上。事实上，所有主要股指的幅度现在都远高于夏季反弹期间达到的水平，这是一个不容忽视的积极因素。Wilson依然强调，明年美股将创下新低。“熊市反弹”结束在即不过Wilson也警告称：对明年的收益前景持严重负面看法，即使我们避开了经济衰退/劳动力周期，争取这种潜在上行的风险回报也很低。此外，虽然标准普尔500指数上周确实突破了200日移动均线，但Wilson认为这是“完美的多头陷阱”，特别是考虑到自高峰以来形成的下行趋势的上方阻力。最后，在2019年和2021年牛市即将结束时，标普500指数从未达到基于广度的潜力，今天的情况与这两次类似。Wilson称：我们6周前所称的熊市反弹正在失去动力。虽然到年底可能会有一些最后的余力，但鉴于我们对明年远低于市场普遍预期的EPS的预测，情况已经实质性恶化。他认为目前“与一年前和8月份熊市反弹后的情况一样没有吸引力”。 从短期的角度来看，他表示，“4150点是这次反弹可以实现的上限”，如今，标普500指数“跌破上周低点3938点，与150天移动平均线重合，将提供一些确认熊市即将回归的趋势。”最后，Wilson预计通胀将在2023年快速下降。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":412,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
